We're pretty soon going to find out what Padres incoming owner Jeff Moorad, GM Jed Hoyer and San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke are made of, thanks to two interesting items in the newspaper today. One is on the lagging hitting of Padres outfielders and the other is about the lack of strength among San Diego State football players when coach Brady Hoke arrived in December 2008.
Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.
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On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.
But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.
Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.
Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.
1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.
2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.
3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.
4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.
I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."
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For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.
Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.
If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.
If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.
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As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.
I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.
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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.
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