Just a year after San Diego State's baseball team rode the magical arm and golden spikes of pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg to its first appearance in the NCAA Regionals in the ungodly time period of nearly 20 years, the Aztecs sit a game under .500 both overall and in the Mountain West Conference.
The only chance at a second straight NCAA berth will be an upset run through the league tournament, something that looks increasingly unlikely after New Mexico took two of three from SDSU over the weekend. The Lobos scored 20 times in the finale, a stunning total at pitcher-friendly Tony Gwynn Stadium even on a Sunday.
In a post before the beginning of the season, I asked local baseball coaches to "show me what they got." Could Rich Hill of USD rebound after an injury-plagued off year? Could Gwynn maintain course without Strasburg? For Hill, the answer is yes. The Toreros are ranked 22nd in the latest Baseball America poll and are a perfect 12-0 in the West Coast Conference, which is at least as good as the Mountain West.
For Gwynn, the answer is no. His Aztecs are in fourth place in the MWC at 7-8. However, the problem does not entirely lie with him. He has lost several starting pitchers to injury and a number of true freshman have had to take on considerable playing time.
Yet some numbers are disturbing. The Aztecs have struck out 366 times this year, with the next team on the list, perennially horrible Air Force, whiffing 328 times. The Lobos have gone down on K's more than 130 fewer times. The team ERA is 5.17 with most games in confines nearly as friendly to pitchers as Petco Park. Fielding has been a major issue under Gwynn, and the Aztecs percentage of .961 is fifth out of seven teams, and they are second in the total number of errors committed.
Individually, only one player, Brandon Meredith, ranks in the league's Top 20 in batting average, at .374. If you know about the league, you understand there will never be many Aztecs among the leaders in the category, but ONE? Come on. No SDSU players appear in the league Top 10 for slugging percentage, RBI, doubles, home runs or total bases. That's after instruction from a Hall of Fame major league hitter.
Success and failure in baseball cannot always be defined by numbers. I have no idea what sort of drama might be taking place behind the scenes, if the players respect and support each other or consider their responsibilities to be drudgery. I don't if the replacement of pitching coach Rusty Filter with the equally respected Eric Valenzuela has gone poorly. I don't know why more players don't respond the Gwynn's batting instruction. I sure as heck don't understand why a program that can create a Strasburg can't make more who are at least similar to him -- yeah, he's one of a kind, but at least something close?
So, while I'm not advocating that Gwynn be done away with as head coach, I do think the time has come to bring up the issue. Keep in mind that SDSU has a new athletic director who was able to admire Gwynn the player and personality only from afar. Jim Sterk may not have a deep understanding of his coach's standing in the community.
Ultimately, the question Sterk will need to evaluate is this: does Gwynn's position as a status symbol and ability to bring attention to San Diego State University outweigh the fact that he has been unable to build a consistent winner in a non-revenue sport? For most of his tenure as coach, the answer was undeniably yes. But I also think that time is starting to run out, at least for the youngsters he needs to attract to Montezuma Mesa to build a winner. We're talking about kids who were in tee-ball when Gwynn retired. He still has considerable cache with adults who would be inclined to support the program, but year-after-year of losing is eroding even that backing.
I would hate to be in Sterk's shoes and have to decide whether his baseball program would be better off without a legendary coach. This year's injuries mean the new AD won't have to deal with the subject this year -- 2010 is a free pass. Next year, though, Tony Gwynn might be under closer scrutiny.
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