Saturday, September 26, 2009

Air Force, New Mexico Mark SDSU Football

I have two markers for judging the status of SDSU football during a given season.

Air Force, which downed the Aztecs 26-14 today, is one -- the good one. If San Diego State's football program is in good shape, the Falcons can be beat. SDSU doesn't beat AFA too often, which is a sign that the program hasn't had many great seasons. Even in some of the good ones, Air Force came out on top. At this point, becoming as consistently good as BYU, with its built-in advantages of having its own football-crazy population to recruit from, and two-year missions that give the Cougars an unfair advantage in maturity, is just not attainable at this point (and the rule that allows the missions needs to be dropped).

The other marker, the bad one, is New Mexico. The Lobos until the late-1990s defined bad in old WAC. Then Dennis Franchione and Brian Urlacher and Rocky Long showed up, and the Lobos have since been a picture of mediocrity that's bested SDSU for something like six or seven seasons running. When I was in school, and in many years after, if you'd told me UNM would dominate the Aztecs in football, I'd have laughed in your face. But SDSU has been this bad.

There is no surprise the Falcons won today. Their position is what the Aztecs aspire to. Get there, maybe in another couple years, and then the big boys are in their sights. First, they have to figure out how to beat New Mexico, which returns to Qualcomm Stadium on Halloween. That will be a sign that the first step has been taken on a very long climb up the ladder.

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The score was deceptive. It should have been much worse. SDSU was pressured by a decent Air Force defense into six turnovers, thanks in large part to an offensive line that continues to perform poorly. QB Ryan Lindley continues to be affected by the troubles up front, and there was no running game again.

The defense made sure the end zone remained free of Falcons, an amazing performance based on results the past two seasons in which they ran over and around SDSU. A closer look, though, shows that Air Force coach Troy Calhoun ran a very limited offensive scheme because he was playing a backup quarterback in place of his injured starter. SDSU's defense is now capable of slowing repeated fullback dives when they know its coming.

It's going to take years of coaching the current players up, and recruiting, for San Diego State to approach that Air Force marker.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Padres Not Contenders Yet

Since the beginning of August, the best baseball team in the NL West has not been the presumptive titlist Dodgers or the likely wildcard Rockies, but the San Diego Padres. The now sustained success of nearly two months resulted in a Union-Tribune article in which General Manager Kevin Towers says his ballclub is ready to contend in 2010.

Puh and leeze. Give me a break.

There has certainly been turnover since an extremely poor first three months of this season left the Friars buried behind everyone but Arizona. A bunch of new players have been called up and have played well in their first few months in the big leagues. If it remains intact, the infield absolutely has the defense of a contender, with strong Gold Glove candidates at all four positions.

Two questions remain to be answered before the young Padres can be anointed division contenders:

1. How will the young players perform in their sophomore seasons? For whatever reason, the jinx is real. There's tremendous pressure to "do it again," and opponents will be spending many hours examining tape to find holes in the swings of Will Venable and Kyle Blanks. They will be found. How long will it take them to adjust? The five months it took Chase Headley, which will leave them out of contention again? Or sooner, which might put the Padres over .500?

2. How will the young players perform when the games are for real? The Padres have had no pressure on them whatsoever since the All-Star Break. They could try out whichever players they wanted. The kids were in a position where failure was accepted as part of a learning process, and in such a relaxed atmosphere were able to learn and flourish. The opponents seemed to overlook them because of their poor won-loss mark. In April 2010, when every team's record is 0-0, how will they do?

Don't get me wrong, the Padres are on the right track. I like a lot of these young players and think they have the building blocks for a solid major league roster. I just think there are too many questions to label them a contender.

Towers doesn't have far to go, in my opinion. The infield is solid, most of the outfield is intriguing. They need one more dependable power bat and a front-line pitcher, either via free agency or a trade. Then I'd say you have a contender. Those are the hardest to acquire, of course, but the Padres have an excess right now at third base and in back-of-the-rotation hurlers and relievers. A package deal could bring a quality player. I don't see them going for a free agent of any stature, but it would be great if they did. Towers' hint in the newspaper article that he might stand pat in the off-season gives me pause.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Chargers Remain on Track

I have to admit that I'm not upset by the Chargers 31-26 defeat at the hands of the Ravens in their 2009 home opener. In predicting a 10-6 season, this game was one that I had in the L column.

A couple thoughts:

1. The Bolts generally played well despite their many injury shortcomings, and kept a game close when it appeared a rout was in the offing.

2. Losing LT for a couple weeks doesn't help matters at all, but Darren Sproles is really fun to watch.

3. So is Rivers.

4. Star players make the big plays that win NFL football games and lead teams to championships. Look at Ray Lewis on the Chargers fourth down play. Giving the ball to Sproles was a legitimate play call, and the Ravens LB busted through and stuffed him. The Chargers are loaded with such players, which is why I'm confident that they will win enough games to make the playoffs despite being short-handed.

History is that the Chargers don't do well when Jamal Williams is not available on the defensive line. I like the young guys they have on the line, though some of the lessons might be hard ones.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Hoke's Rebuilding Task a Big One

Nothing like an old-fashioned beat-down to a lowly team to realize just how big a rebuilding project is ahead of you. San Diego State's 34-20 setback at Idaho, a team the Aztecs crushed a year ago, was unfortunately a display of just how much work first-year coach Brady Hoke has ahead of him -- and us fans.

When I wrote my reaction piece last week after the win over Southern Utah, I was not pleased with how the team looked and hoped that game was an anomaly, that the game effort the previous week at UCLA would be more the rule. No such luck. If anything, the Thunderbirds gave a quality coaching staff at Idaho -- and the coaches of the remaining nine opponents, I fear -- a lesson in how to beat the Aztecs: they can be manhandled at the line of scrimmage and the quarterback will have no problem connecting on short passes. That the Vandals stretched the definition of short passes to longer than 15 yards on too many occasions was very distressing.

When Tom Craft took over at the helm earlier this decade, he went into the Kibbie Dome and lost 38-34, a mistake-prone disaster marked by poor effort and SDSU still had a chance to win. This year, the Vandals throttled SDSU's running game, allowed just one long pass completion, mostly kept their QB upright and were able to move the ball on the ground. Idaho simply beat up the Aztecs physically and there never was a chance to win. As bad as that first loss to Idaho was, this was worse.

Here's a quick rundown of the problems I see:

1. Hoke immediately put the offensive line on a program to lose weight. That they did, but they have not had time to take the next step, which is to build those bodies back up the right way. They couldn't get any push on SUU or Idaho. They might be able to match up with New Mexico State in a couple weeks, but the Aztecs won't average 100 yards rushing in the Mountain West. In fact, if they run for more than 100 yards against more than one MWC opponent, I'll be stunned. This is no indictment of Hoke or the kids. They did what they felt they had to do. It's just that it takes time to tear down and rebuild the bodies of these big guys. Next year will be a different story and kids will have playing experience.

2. QB Ryan Lindley clearly is close enough to WR Vincent Brown to consider marriage, but he and his other receivers are still not on the same page after three outings. It's the first year of coordinator Al Borges' offense, and the growing pains are evident.

3. Just as there are growing pains on offense, the defense is struggling as badly. For a defense built around putting heat on the passer, both QBs the past two weeks have looked far too comfortable. That puts pressure on a young secondary that we knew wouldn't be very good, and isn't.

The news isn't all bad, however. In fact, Idaho can be a bit of a guiding light. The Vandals are in the third year of coach Rob Akey's regime, and you can see a team that is much improved over 2008. They beat NMSU handily in Las Cruces and, by all accounts, played well in Seattle in falling to Washington -- which just beat USC. I don't know how many games they'll win this year, but they're better than they have been.

The Aztecs will be better, too, when the coaching staff gets farther along in building the linemen's bodies, installing their systems and recruiting to their styles of play. It doesn't happen overnight in most circumstances and it won't in this case.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Chargers Quick Reaction

Quick thoughts on the Chargers 24-20 season-opening victory over the Raiders Monday night, before I go off to bed.

1. This is the NFL and if you're considered a good team as the Chargers are, you're going to take an opponent's best shot sometimes. You just have to survive and the Bolts did. Their manhood was tested and they stood up at winning time in the fourth quarter.

2. The Chargers seem to need a few games to get into a rhythm. Partly why I wasn't too perturbed until the third quarter, when the Raiders were clearly manhandling them. I liked that the San Diego team stiffened their backs in response and won with two backup offensive linemen and no LT.

3. Props to Marcus McNeill for playing hurt. Next game, he better play better or the Chargers are going to be on the market for a left tackle. They already better be checking the waiver wire for a right tackle, because Jeromey Clary is no starter on a championship-caliber team.

4. Thank God for JaMarcus Russell. As long as Al Davis is paying him to play QB, the Raiders won't be a threat over the course of a season.

5. Shawne Merriman is at about 80 percent, it looks like.

6. On my recent post I wrote that one of the backup receivers was going to have a breakout season. I wrote Legedu Naanee, right? Right?

7. Next opponent: Baltimore. The Chargers better respond to the manhood test in the first quarter, because if they don't, standing up for themselves in the fourth won't make a difference.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Aztecs vs Southern Utah Quick Reaction

As expected, a middlin' kind of win, but not one that leaves questions unanswered. Unfortunately, I think answers came in heaps in San Diego State's 35-19 defeat of Southern Utah of the lower-level FCS.

1. The Aztecs can't generate a running game. The blocking is very poor and the running backs wouldn't see the field for a lot of FCS teams. There were a ton of cutback lanes open that Brandon Sullivan and Anthony Miller couldn't make. This team won't average over 100 yards rushing in conference play.

2. The secondary couldn't cover a grandmother with a rocking chair.

3. QB Ryan Lindley and the receivers were back on the same page, which saved the game.

4. You don't want to bore the fans at the Sky Show game and they did.

5. Give the offensive line props for keeping Lindley's uniform clean for the second game in a row.

6. When budgeting your entertainment dollar for the holidays, don't plan on a bowl game. Tonight's performance was one of a four-win team at best. The game at Idaho next week suddenly looks dicey. Save the $$ for basketball.

Friday, September 11, 2009

The Lines on the Chargers Say 10-6

When the Chargers start this season with a 4-4 record, don't panic. The history of last season says this team knows how to recover from early troubles to trample through the competition when it counts, and it will happen this year, too.

I still hold to my contention that the Bolts are deficient on both lines. I feel better about the health of NT Jamal Williams and DE Luis Castillo, but who knows how long the good fortune will last. I am happy with the development of rookie G Louis Vasquez, but his status as a first-year player means rough times are ahead for him. He's going to make tremendous plays -- like the block in Atlanta -- but will likely be prone to horrendous breakdowns. He's a rookie, 'nuff said. I do prefer him over fading veteran Mike Goff, who was beaten badly in Kansas City during the preseason, and journeyman Kynan Forney, who has no upside. Vasquez might pay off big down the line, which I like.

The good teams on the Chargers schedules will mostly beat them because they will have better lines, simple as that. But that's only six times. The Chargers will still remain potent offensively, even if the least knowledgeable fan in the stadium knows they'll be running left on 3rd and short.

After that 4-4 start, I see them winning three straight before concluding the season 3-2. That gives us 10-6 with an AFC West title by two games minimum, possibly more. They won't be threatened for a playoff berth. The record probably puts them in a game at home with a wildcard team, which they might beat. But they'll go no farther.

That, in this year of people hoping for a Super Bowl, makes me a pessimist. I see it as being a realist.

Players Whose Performances Will Make a Difference, Good or Bad, So Watch Them: LT Marcus McNeill, RT Jeromey Clary, CB Antonio Cromartie, ILB Kevin Burnett.

Breakout Years: FS Eric Weddle, WR Malcolm Floyd -- you read it here first. Chris Chambers will get hurt and Floyd will make some spectacular grabs in his place.

Opponents I Fear: Baltimore, Miami, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Dallas, Tennessee. Duh, but I think they beat a couple of these teams.

AFC West: 5-1 with the loss at Kansas City.

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The collapse of the San Diego State football program can be measured against 1-AA, now FCS schools, from the rout of Tony Romo's Eastern Illinois team early this decade to the sputtering and unfulfilling wins over Eastern Washington and Samford to the recent Chuck Long contributions of losses to Cal Poly.

Big schools schedule a division down to get a guaranteed win for bowl qualification purposes, and to decide the game by halftime so players deep down the depth chart can get quality snaps.

Saturday's visit to SDSU by Southern Utah will be an interesting test of where the Aztecs program is right now. The Thunderbirds have a Division 1 transfer at QB, a large and experienced offensive line and an NFL prospect at safety. They have just enough talent to make this thing interesting if the hosts are unprepared or under-talented.

If the game is a rout decided at halftime, then I think you can say that coach Brady Hoke and his great staff are getting things back on track, particularly in light of the many good things that happened at UCLA last week. If SDSU struggles, then you can probably abandon those slim hopes of a minor bowl berth.

Look to see:

1. Whether QB Ryan Lindley and his receivers are back on the same page, particularly when he is pressured.

2. Whether the offensive line can push open some running lanes.

3. Whether the defense can pursue with proper angles in order to tackle ball-carriers quickly and avoid the major gaps in the field that opened in the first half last week.

My bet is it will be a contest for about 20 minutes, then the Aztecs depth of talent will take over for a comfortable victory. But we'll be left with questions about this team's true level -- questions that might be answered the following week with a visit to lowly Idaho in the dangerous Kibbie Dome.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Local Ballplayer Moves

I have to admit having something of a soft spot for the athletes I covered when I was operating Sandiegosportstown.com, so I was thrilled to see a pair of local athletes receive September call-ups to their major league teams.

Infielders Mike McCoy (Grossmont HS and USD) and Freddy Sandoval (the old Marian Catholic HS and USD) were brought up by the Rockies and Angels, respectively. McCoy's mother was a regular attendee at Toreros games and was very nice to me, so it's easy to root for him. Catcher and 1B Kyle Phillips (El Capitan HS) was brought up by the Blue Jays. He's part of a very active baseball family in the East County.

The news was far from perfect as the Orioles put CF Adam Jones (Morse HS) on the 15-day disabled list with a severe sprain of his left ankle. And the Giants sent P Alex Hinshaw (SDSU) back to the minors after walking seven and compiling an ERA of 12 in six innings pitched.

USD's Brian Matusz has a 4-2 record with the Orioles, but he's been rocked around a bit, allowing 48 hits and 12 walks in 37.2 innings. That's why his ERA is 5.26.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Merriman, Aztecs

I have no idea what went on early Sunday morning between Shawne Merriman and Tila Nguyen (Tila Tequila), but I do know what's happened since, and little of the reaction has been fair to the Chargers linebacker.

First of all, there's the immediate reaction that he must be guilty because he was arrested. This comes because Merriman is a somewhat controversial persona and because so many of his teammates past and present did in fact commit crimes. I found myself debating a number of people Sunday who said it figured that he was arrested, or "'roid boy' is at it again." The fact of the matter is that Shawne Merriman had not been arrested or charged with a crime since becoming a Charger in 2005. His off-field conduct has been far to the other side, with numerous business and charity interests.

Secondly, there's been a lot of complaints about his those interests outside of football, pursuit of Hollywood celebrity status and active nightlife. People claim Merriman has put himself ahead of the Chargers. I don't understand this, either. I have my job, but then I write this blog, have a couple of outside projects in the works and try to be actively involved in what members of my family are doing. That doesn't mean I'm putting myself above my job. For Merriman, I see his off-the-field interests as being rather refreshing. He's a man of substance. You might not like that substance, but there's something to him. I have zero interest in the celebrity culture he so vigorously pursues. Yet I greatly admire his willingness and ability to start a construction firm after the 2007 wildfires and be the first one to rebuild a house in Rancho Bernardo. I also have a theory that your mind is not something you can switch on and off when you step on a football field. You keep your mind engaged through the day and you don't have to worry about when it should be activated.

I think we know how this is going to go. The deputies who went to Merriman's house in Poway said Nguyen told them she'd been drinking and she appeared to be intoxicated. Nguyen now claims to be allergic to alcohol and the "Tequila" name is a joke because she doesn't actually drink. There are reports that she twittered about being drunk over the weekend, but those tweets were pulled. She'll say she was sober, but Merriman has witnesses who will be on his side, no matter who is telling the truth.

My bet is that the Sheriff's Department by the end of the week will wrap up its investigation by saying it can't prove the allegations and won't pursue charges, so this won't be a distraction leading into Monday's season-opener in Oakland.

That will leave, however, the major distraction, which is the question of whether Merriman will be a Charger in 2010. General Manager AJ Smith has his image of a football player cast in stone, and Merriman ain't it. This distraction was going to exist whether Merriman made his first tackle of the year on a 4-foot-11 woman or not.

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If I'm Brady Hoke, I am ecstatic over the San Diego State season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA. The big question coming into 2009 for the Aztecs was how much of the previous year's disaster had to do with coaching, and how much was a simple lack of talent. Now we know the answer, it was coaching by a long shot.

Most of the problems that led to the loss were either bad luck or correctable:

1. A UCLA receiver fumbles at the end of a long-pass play and not only do the officials whistle the play dead when SDSU had a chance to run it all way back, but then the replay review took mere seconds to confirm the ref's incorrect call. The ball was coming out before the Bruins player's knee hit the ground.

2. The Aztecs lined up for a field goal that would have made the score a manageable 26-17 but it was blocked. Terrible execution to allow the Bruins defenders to jump up that high so far in from the line of scrimmage, but to have the ball bounce right to a guy in sky blue was just a horrible break. Just a simple block, ok? 26-14 looks bad enough, 33-14 appears to be a rout that the game was not.

3. The defense allowed UCLA QB Kevin Prince too much time, and running backs too much room, in the first half. Defensive coordinator Rocky Long got his players back on track for the final thirty minutes, in which just three points were allowed, despite the offense going nowhere and the defense working with short fields. That was a correction right there.

4. QB Ryan Lindley had a very rough final three quarters while being constantly pressured. He and his receivers were clearly not on the same page when it came to making route adjustments. That can be corrected. Whether SDSU qualifies for a bowl or not will depend on how long that process takes. My bet is not too terribly long, since Lindley has been working with Vincent Brown and Roberto Wallace for several years now.

5. Special teams is always a work in progress. UCLA's are almost always superb, so the contrast was stark. Look for vast improvement by mid-season.

That doesn't mean SDSU's talent pool is where it needs to be. Neither line is up to Pac-10 standards, which means it isn't up to the standards of the upper half of the Mountain West. The running back corps appears neither deep nor talented. The receivers look good but not deep. The cornerbacks didn't stick with anyone wearing blue and gold, but they are so young we'll have to watch and see if they develop.

Again, this team has a shot at 6-6. We'll know a lot more by this time next week, after they've played a Southern Utah team from a lower division. It will be encouraging if the game is a rout, not encouraging if the contest is close.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

SDSU-UCLA Quick Reax

SDSU fell 33-14 in Brady Hoke's debut as head coach.

The good:

1. SDSU's offense got an early jump on UCLA's defense, scoring two touchdowns in the first quarter.

2. The defense in past years would have given up considering the bad breaks they had, but they hung in there for 60 minutes. Bruins only score three points on offense in the second half.

3. Schemes looked good, organization and game plans solid -- very unlike last year.

The bad:

1. Pass blocking and run blocking overwhelmed by a good UCLA defense. QB Ryan Lindley was really thrown off his game and his passes in the second half were mostly terrible.

2. Special teams were terrible.

3. Receivers were shut down after the first quarter.

Lots of work ahead for Hoke and Company, but the schedule gets thankfully easier.

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

SDSU and Mountain West Predictions

Building on the last post and with just a couple days before the beginning of the college football season, its time for me to make my predictions of what will happen in the Mountain West this year.

Concerning the Aztecs, there are two factors that should result in major improvements on both sides of the ball.

First, the change to Brady Hoke and his celebrated coordinators -- Al Borges for offense and Rocky Long on defense. There was zero thinking that went into the offense in 2008. Chuck Long and Del Miller kept their spread offense even though they were going from fleet Kevin O'Connell to dropback passer Ryan Lindley, a true freshman, and even though they didn't have the skill personnel or linemen to carry it off. The results were predictable. Decent efforts by the defense early last season were constantly stymied by an offense that kept going three-and-out. That won't happen this year. There will not just be an emphasis on the run, but Borges has designed his offense to make sure he has the tools to carry out his plans. He has tight ends and fullbacks who can block, run or go out for passes in order to keep defenses on their heels. The linemen will come out of three-point stances. Lindley will be under center. I could go on. Expect serious improvement.

On defense, the read-and-react defense of the past few years under Chuck Long and Bob Elliott turned into the read-and-get-injured defense as smaller players constantly got pummeled. The attacking style of Rocky Long's 3-3-5 suits a smaller, speedier defense and the Aztecs will be much better for it.

The second reason to expect serious improvement is a general return to health. I think much of the reason for last year's lopsided scores was players just didn't have enough physically as the games went on. This year they do.

Strong points -- quarterback, a deep and quick linebacker corps, an experienced front seven.

Weaknesses -- the left side of the offensive line has two players making their first start, a young and possibly talent-shy secondary.

Running the numbers recently, in several ways, I came up with 6-6. Some good breaks mean 7-5 and a bowl bid. I don't really think six wins sends State to a post-season game, but I could be wrong. Bad breaks or injuries means 5-7, still a three-game improvement over last season.

This is a very impressive coaching staff that's doing things right. If the winning doesn't come immediately, it won't be a long wait.

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I see no weaknesses and a lot of pluses for TCU, so to me they are the choice to win the Mountain West Conference and might be, except for a tough schedule, the best bet to bust into the BCS (I think Boise loses against Oregon Thursday, we'll see). BYU will be no better than last year, though the drop off will be minimal. Utah will slip to third or fourth place because of their extreme personnel losses.

My picks:

1. TCU - defense wins championships, and the offense is experienced with third-year QB Andy Dalton, two versatile RBs and the best set of wideouts in the conference.

2. BYU - better defense makes up for the loss of playmaking receiver Austin Collie. The two great tight ends are back, along with QB Max Hall and RB Harvey Unga.

3. Utah - without Brian Johnson at quarterback in 2008, the Utes might have lost three games. Too many playmakers lost on both offense and defense, as well as steady K/P Louie Sakoda.

4. Colorado State - I'm not sure if this is too high, but the Rams obviously have benefited under Steve Fairchild's coaching and they seem to win close games. It looks like they have the RBs to replace Gartrell Johnson, WR Rashaun Greer is tops and the offensive line is veteran.

5. SDSU - The 4-8 spots are kind of a mix in which any of these teams can finish in any order, but I think the new coaching staff can get SDSU right to mid-pack. The games against Notre Dame and UNLV in 2008 showed what this group of players is capable of.

6. UNLV - Lack of depth ends up hurting the Rebels by the end of the season, it seems like, so this year won't be much different. QB Omar Clayton is efficient and WR Ryan Wolfe is a good one. Big stable of RBs but none seem any good.

7. Air Force - Even though soph QB Tim Jefferson could be great, last year he operated with a veteran team. Now everyone around him is young, so they could fall. I'm not sure it'll be this far, but there's plenty of new faces playing for the Falcons.

8. Wyoming - Looks like they're going with a freshman over veteran and turnover-plagued QBs Dax Crum and Karsten Sween. Smart move, but it will take time to pay off. Not much skill talent on offense, but defense is perhaps second only to TCU. If there was any offense at all on this team, they'd be a trendy dark horse pick.

9. New Mexico - Mike Locksley is the anti-Brady Hoke, it seems like nothing he's done has come off well, and it will hurt the Lobos. No more than three wins total.