Saturday, October 28, 2006

Aztecs Football - Lose to Cal Poly

This might be the worst week in San Diego sports in some time, from the Chargers last-second loss at KC to the Padres losing Bruce Bochy -- and having their post-season failure rubbed in their face by the Cardinals winning the World Series -- and now having San Diego State lose to 1-AA Cal Poly to fall to 1-6.

Why, when you've scored two first quarter touchdown passes and have difficulty running do you go into a Schottenheimeresque shell and not throw the ball? Admittedly, the Mustangs must have made some adjustments because receivers weren't running freely through much of the game, but most every pass came on third-and-long. Passing might have been easier if the Aztecs EVER mixed it up on first- or second-down.

While the debate rages over whether the coaches or players suck worse, and are more to blame, here are a couple of takes:

1. As mentioned above, the play-calling on offense was horrendous. Calling plays is as much art as science, having a feel for when to stick with the game plan and when to deviate. Offensive coordinator Del Miller had no feel for the course of the game whatsoever tonight and has had similar problems at other points this season. I generally think coaches need to be given a couple years to prove themselves, but I think this case is an exception. If you're dense now, you'll still be dense next year and thereafter (and just look at his resume, he was at Kansas State while they built and while they declined but missed their glory years). If he'd called some play action passes and they weren't completed, that would be a different story. But he didn't even try.

2. The other coordinator, Bob Elliott, has received much heat this season for a three-game defensive slump, but had a great game plan against Air Force and seemed to have things together tonight schemewise. Problem was, his defenders played with little heart or pride. Even with the offense playing so conservatively, SLO should never have run for 200 yards against a 1-A defense. The Mustangs routinely picked up first downs, including gaining huge yardage on a third-and-long draw play and seemed to have no trouble getting four or five yards on routine runs. The Mustangs rarely did anything tricky. Their calls were very basic, and they gained good yardage on most snaps.

3. Which leads to defense position coaching. As units, the defensive line, linebackers and secondary are all playing several notches below the levels of the past couple of seasons. William Inge with the linebackers and Joe Bob Clements with the defensive line, in particular, have done absolutely nothing to distinguish themselves. The DTs are being pushed around and the DEs get little pressure on the QB. The LBs are clueless on draw plays and arm tackle more than any Aztecs group since Barry Lamb was the defensive coordinator. Remember, this is a unit with eight returning starters and improved depth on the line. Mostly the same guys are playing worse.

4. I also think the Thom Kaumeyer vs. Fred Bleil question that raged some last year has been emphatically answered in favor of the ex-secondary coach. Last year, many were crediting Kaumeyer with covering for Bleil with the DBs and being "really responsible" for the inspired play of CBs Donny Baker and Terrell Maze. Now, with Kaumeyer really the secondary coach and Bleil gone, the play of Baker and Maze in 2006 has been mediocre.

5. By contrast, perhaps the least qualified position coach, Jonathan Himebauch with the offensive line, has done the best job getting his unit to improve. Larry Holton has done a fine job getting Atiyyah Henderson to play well and Miller, while a poor offensive coordinator, has done an excellent job of his specific coaching duties with the quarterbacks, especially considering the injury cards he's been dealt.

6. Which brings us to head coach Chuck Long. He can't block, tackle or run, and he really isn't chiefly responsible for getting the players to do so. He's made some poor choices for assistant coaches, unfortunately, and will have to show some guts at the end of the year. His real work, and our real evaluation of him, will come after the season finale in December.

7. And the players? The game comes down to the players, a 1-6 record does not lie. Former coach Tom Craft, as much as I liked dealing with him personally, took too many risks in his first couple recruiting seasons, and the Aztecs are paying for it now. On defense, only DT Jonathan Bailes would be starting for a quality Division 1 football team. Everyone else is mediocre at best and young LBs Andrew Schantz and Russell Allen have been disappointments. On offense, Henderson looks like a keeper and the line has improved, so a couple of those guys must be doing something right. And I think the duel Kevins at QB are assets.

What I thought about a lot in watching the game was how basketball coach Steve Fisher revoked all those scholarships after his first season and plugged in some new players. Chuck Long can't exactly do that because of the sheer numbers of players needed in his sport. Thus, the rebuilding process will be a long one. It could very well have to start with some new assistant coaches.

Friday, October 27, 2006

Padres - Bochy Leaves

The Padres willingness to let Bruce Bochy leave to become manager of the Giants truly defies logic. In a previous post (Padres-Bochy), I suggested that 2006 was the skipper's best season as a manager.

The Padres successfully defended their NL West title despite a myriad of obstacles, including the improvement of their rivals. Some of the issues that confronted the Padres around the All-Star break, like the releases of Vinny Castilla and Eric Young, along with the slump by closer Trevor Hoffman and a losing streak, could have torn the Friars apart. But Bochy and his staff held the team together.

I really can't believe the Padres quick exit from the NL playoffs was the cause of Sandy Alderson's indifference to Bochy's employment. That St. Louis went on to win the World Series shows what a crap shoot the playoffs really are. No one in advance could have predicted that the Cardinals would advance to a championship behind Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan.

One could surmise that the Cards championship demonstrates how this really could have been the Padres year, adding to frustration by the front office over a perceived lax attitude by the manager. But I think that's wrong.

This had to come from a long-term disagreement over larger issues, such as using younger players, who to move in the off-season and who to keep, and probably a desire by Alderson to bring in his own guy. The Padres second-half of 2005, when they collapsed following Bochy's agreement to a contract extension, may have also hurt.

Now the Giants will be the team with a leader who knows how to manage over the course of a 162-game marathon, hopefully extended by meaningful October playoffs. Couple it with a veteran-oriented franchise that understands the nature of the six-month season and the Bochy-Giants bond could be one made in heaven for Bay Area baseball fans.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Chargers - Loss at KC

The Chargers loss at Kansas City Sunday is a lot easier to take than the one at Baltimore a few weeks ago. Sometimes in the NFL you'll get your rear handed to you and that's what happened at Arrowhead Stadium.

Since this is the initial post on the Bolts, key background on my opinion is that too little attention has been paid to the offensive line. This is a very thin group and we saw what a much better line for the Chiefs can do. The Chargers O-line has been fine against the many lesser teams on the schedule, was pretty good vs the Steelers but was subpar in both losses. That could hurt come playoff time.

Aztecs Football - First 2006 Win

Well, it wasn't a thing of beauty, but a win is a win. Lot of happy Aztec fans and more than a few disappointed, uniformed cadets on the green line trolley on the way home.

Chuck Long and the rest of the coaches get a Mulligan for the first five games. There was just so much sorting out to do -- far more than expected -- and so many key injuries (like losing your strong safety the same week a cornerback was suspended, on top of the QBs, TEs, etc.) that Saturday night was the first time we got to see what they all intended.

It was apparent coming in that the Aztecs offense was getting together. Kevin Craft looks like a 4-year starter at QB. He is miles ahead of Darren Mougey and, as much as I like Kevin O'Connell, the redshirt freshman clearly has a better arm, better during-play vision of what's taking place on the field and is more likely to stay within the offense.

The offensive line has been improving every week, and last night the blockers gave Craft plenty of time to look for receivers and knocked the Falcons off the ball. Atiyyah Henderson often was 5 or more yards past the line of scrimmage before he was even touched. And speaking of Henderson, he is better than Lynell Hamilton was in his healthy freshman year. Both Craft and Henderson will get hurt -- its football -- so there will be plenty of touches for the displaced, but I think we've seen the future of Aztecs football at those key positions.

The defense survived, which is often as good as you can get against Air Force. The line played quite well, hanging in there. The defensive backs gave up some long pass plays, but were superb in keeping the ball-carriers in front of them. That's even better because the linebackers, with the exception of Joe Martin, were awful. How can a running team like the Falcons get away with so many draw plays? The guy who carried the draws got at least 10 yards every time. Unbelievable.

Don't forget special teams. The punting was very solid and Garrett Palmer was 2-for-2 on FGs. Plus, the game-winner is an area where previous Aztecs kickers have choked. Didn't happen this time. Also, as Air Force is one of the country's top programs in blocking kicks, they didn't even come close to one last night. Now if they can just even things up in the return game.

Air Force was also a kind guest. Third-and-less than a yard nearing the red zone late in the third quarter, and converting such plays at-will all game, they tried to pass and got sacked to go out of FG range. One of the plays of the game. Same situation on their first drive of the game, they get called for holding and then get sacked to end the drive with no points again. The Falcons are usually much more disciplined.

Liking the chances to go on a streak. Cal Poly will not be a pushover, their defense is better than many in Division 1. But the Mustangs won't score more than 10 points on offense, and I now think the Aztecs line is building to where they should open holes in a 1-AA defense, even a good one. After that, a huge road contest at Wyoming.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Aztecs Football - Tough Start

Like everyone else in the Aztec Nation, I'm stunned at the 0-5 start of this football season. The only hint of trouble during preseason practice in August was a couple of injuries. But the season quickly fell apart with an offensive line that was not ready for prime time, slow receivers and a QB who was much too conservative.

The defense, which actually played well against UTEP and shutout Wisconsin in the first half and really only gave the Badgers one decent drive in the last 30 minutes, eventually lost confidence and began blowing assignments in the next three losses.

Now, after a blessedly timed week off, the Aztecs return to action against Air Force and, I have to admit to having some optimism. Third string QB Kevin Craft looked like the real deal at BYU and now has Kevin O'Connell to back him up. RB Lynell Hamilton is ready to play again. The offensive line has improved dramatically. The week off could help the defenders restore their confidence in themselves and each other. And the Falcons are traditionally vulnerable from mid-October on through the rest of the season.

Those are the good news trends in Aztecs football. Let's say all come to fruition on Saturday night. They still might not be good enough to win. That's the trouble. In the two home games so far, they haven't even been competitive (let's face it, that rally vs UTEP was an aberration).

If they're uncompetitive again Saturday, despite some of this good news, the Aztecs will probably go 0-12 this season. If they drop a close game to a disciplined Falcons club, then at least it's a step forward. If they win, I'd be nearly as stunned as I am at the 0-5 start. But look at the rest of the schedule. An Aztecs team that continues to improve could put up a 5-2 finish for a final 5-7 record.

The bottom line to the musing is that the Air Force contest, coming as it does after the bye, is the bellweather game for the rest of the season.

Padres - Offseason Plan

Okay, we're playing general manager here. A proposed off-season plan ...

1. No one's talking about it, but the top priority is the starting rotation. That's while fully recognizing the Padres' hitting woes. But behind Jake Peavy and Chris Young are two 40-somethings and nice but uninspiring Clay Hensley. And Peavy stunk most of the year. As much as they need someone who can swing the bat effectively, they're almost desperate for a starting pitcher. My bet is that Oakland's Barry Zito goes for big money in a big market before coming home to San Diego. Also, I'm not sure if Petco is the right home field for Zito, a lefty. Opponents will stack right-handed batters against him, and the home runs in Petco generally come from right-handed pull hitters.

2. Figuring out the outfield. The plan for the last couple of years, it seems, has been to have Ben Johnson start in the outfield in 2007. Assuming Mike Cameron is kept -- a virtual certainty -- that means either Dave Roberts or Brian Giles is shoved aside. My preference is Roberts, who had his best season as a pro last year and appears to be improving with age. Giles has faded each year he's been here, seems to have a mental block regarding hitting in Petco, and has a swing that you teach your son to avoid. Roberts is a prototypical leadoff hitter and was money later in games when the #7 or #8 hitters were on base, in scoring position, with a couple outs and he came to the plate. All that said, I'm not sure that the Padres can easily move Giles because of his $10 million contract for 2007. A bit expensive for .263 and 14 HR. My bet is that since Giles still has a good name, someone will grab him when teams start getting desperate for warm bodies during spring training. But Roberts is a keeper.

3. Third base. The troika of Russell Branyan, Todd Walker and Geoff Blum actually worked fairly well in the second half of 2006, but I don't think anyone seriously looks at them as a solution for next year. You get some talk radio yakking about ARod and Scott Rolen, both of whom could flourish under Bruce Bochy. But actually getting them is doubtful, and I think you have to get out from under Giles contract to afford either one. Here's another name to throw out at you: Hank Blalock of Texas. Sometime during the year, I read about how Rangers brass was annoyed at how he wilts in the Texas heat in the second half of each season. Not such a problem in Texas. Blalock had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but is expected to be back for spring training. Buy low, sell high is how to win in investing and baseball. Blalock's value might never be better.

4. The bullpen is in pretty good shape with Cla Meredith leading to Scott Linebrink to Trevor Hoffman, although I think the last week of the season and playoffs showed that the sidearmer needs to develop a new pitch, or at least a new wrinkle. But with needs in the rotation and the lineup, don't be surprised if the Friars go into 2007 with only two of those three firemen.

Padres - Add Bochy

Nothing new on the Bruce Bochy front today, aside from the newspaper reporting that the man himself said he had no interviews lined up.

I actually think Bochy had his best season as a Padres manager in 2006. Think of it: his lineup couldn't hit worth a darn at home, his ace starting pitcher had a bad year, he rarely had a full five-man rotation, two starters were in their 40s, he never had a third baseman, his right-fielder never remotely played up to his contract, his shortstop continued to lag offensively and he, too, missed significant time with injuries. And the Padres won the NL West because of the way he employed his bullpen and his bench, and kept the team focused on the task at hand.

The Padres became NL playoff favorites because of pitching, but only Chris Young and Woody Williams were consistently effective late in the season.

Indeed, Bochy should be NL Manager of the Year. Won't be, but should be.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Padres - Bochy

I'm less exorcised over the situation of Padres manager Bruce Bochy than others. While some columnists think that Bochy would be crazy to turn down a multi-year deal from the Giants -- or another team -- I find it hard to believe that he would want to leave. He has a good living situation, a friend as his general manager and an extraordinarily long tenure. Not to mention a team that has the building blocks in place to be a winner for the next several years.

That said, club CEO Sandy Alderson appears to be playing a well-calculated game of poker. He's made the public statement that he wants Bochy to have a chance to test the waters so he when he decides to remain, he'll do so with renewed commitment. Behind his willingness to allow Bochy some slack, Alderson knows his manager is likely to stay put. He also knows that he's in a good position in case a new manager is needed. He can hire from within (Tony Muser) or bring in a wise old veteran (Dusty Baker).

Whatever happens, we should know within a week or, at the most, 10 days, who will manage the Friars in 2007.

Hello, Again!

Well, I'm back.

After a layoff of more than two years, I've decided to return to the Internet to discuss local sports around San Diego County. However, this is in no way a return of Sandiegosportstown.com. To be honest, there's been so many things going on in sports around here, from the slow start of SDSU football to potential changes for the Padres during the offseason, that I wanted to jump back in with my two-cents worth.

Therefore, while the old Web site was news-oriented, this blog will be for analysis and opinion -- and a chance for readers to sound off and get involved in the discussion. There is still, after two years, nowhere else on the 'net to do something like this on the overall subject of sports in San Diego. I've searched.

I will endeavor to update the blog a couple of times each week. I certainly do not plan the several-times-daily posting cycle of Sandiegosportstown.com (if you read my sign-off message in June 2004, you'll recall my concern about the shrinking amount of time available to produce the site. My concerns proved valid, far more so than expected). I will not publicize the blog much until I'm sure I have time to do this.

Hopefully, you'll find some interesting observations on the local sports scene and will be inspired to participate.