Padres - Offseason Plan

Okay, we're playing general manager here. A proposed off-season plan ...

1. No one's talking about it, but the top priority is the starting rotation. That's while fully recognizing the Padres' hitting woes. But behind Jake Peavy and Chris Young are two 40-somethings and nice but uninspiring Clay Hensley. And Peavy stunk most of the year. As much as they need someone who can swing the bat effectively, they're almost desperate for a starting pitcher. My bet is that Oakland's Barry Zito goes for big money in a big market before coming home to San Diego. Also, I'm not sure if Petco is the right home field for Zito, a lefty. Opponents will stack right-handed batters against him, and the home runs in Petco generally come from right-handed pull hitters.

2. Figuring out the outfield. The plan for the last couple of years, it seems, has been to have Ben Johnson start in the outfield in 2007. Assuming Mike Cameron is kept -- a virtual certainty -- that means either Dave Roberts or Brian Giles is shoved aside. My preference is Roberts, who had his best season as a pro last year and appears to be improving with age. Giles has faded each year he's been here, seems to have a mental block regarding hitting in Petco, and has a swing that you teach your son to avoid. Roberts is a prototypical leadoff hitter and was money later in games when the #7 or #8 hitters were on base, in scoring position, with a couple outs and he came to the plate. All that said, I'm not sure that the Padres can easily move Giles because of his $10 million contract for 2007. A bit expensive for .263 and 14 HR. My bet is that since Giles still has a good name, someone will grab him when teams start getting desperate for warm bodies during spring training. But Roberts is a keeper.

3. Third base. The troika of Russell Branyan, Todd Walker and Geoff Blum actually worked fairly well in the second half of 2006, but I don't think anyone seriously looks at them as a solution for next year. You get some talk radio yakking about ARod and Scott Rolen, both of whom could flourish under Bruce Bochy. But actually getting them is doubtful, and I think you have to get out from under Giles contract to afford either one. Here's another name to throw out at you: Hank Blalock of Texas. Sometime during the year, I read about how Rangers brass was annoyed at how he wilts in the Texas heat in the second half of each season. Not such a problem in Texas. Blalock had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but is expected to be back for spring training. Buy low, sell high is how to win in investing and baseball. Blalock's value might never be better.

4. The bullpen is in pretty good shape with Cla Meredith leading to Scott Linebrink to Trevor Hoffman, although I think the last week of the season and playoffs showed that the sidearmer needs to develop a new pitch, or at least a new wrinkle. But with needs in the rotation and the lineup, don't be surprised if the Friars go into 2007 with only two of those three firemen.