Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Padres Slump, MWC Preview

Don't panic, Padres fans, at least not yet. Yes, your Friars have lost a season-high five games in a row, but they remain five games in front of the Giants and remain on track for a playoff berth.

Throwing Wade LeBlanc at Arizona at Chase Field Monday was no way to stop a losing streak, so you can toss that one out. Otherwise, the Padres lost three straight to the Phillies over the weekend because they played like crap. They spent more time arguing with umpires over balls-and-strikes calls than they did trying to get on base or drive in runs. They made all kinds of errors and left a bunch of plays unmade. The two that come to mind of the last point came when SS Miguel Tejada made a weak double-play toss to 2B David Eckstein, who was taken out roughly at the base on his pivot throw. The batter was safe at first and a run scored. The other was CF Chris Denorfia, who has received high praise here this summer, diving for a ball he should have cut off. That, and the batters swinging for the fences, was a sign of players trying to do too much to win.

My bet is Manager Bud Black handles this and the Padres turn things around this week. It's not like they were completely outclassed by the Phillies. Sure, the visitors were better, but not by a whole lot. The Padres have a good team, they just have to play well, like anyone else. Now, come playoff time, we may have a different tune. I'd hate to have to run that Oswalt-Blanton-Hamels gauntlet again, especially when that list doesn't even include their best starter.

My only concern is that if the Padres do fall back to the pack, the wildcard position is being challenged fiercely. Falling behind in the NL West at the end could mean you miss the playoffs entirely. I don't think this is a worry, but it's worth mentioning.

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In this year of college football realignment, intrigue, back-stabbing, and every-man-for-himselfism the upcoming Mountain West Conference season will be marked, in a large part, on group efforts. That's downright weird, but true.

Several teams plan to play two quarterbacks, while a number of others plan to rotate as many as four running backs. The latter number includes conference favorite TCU, which again appears to be head and shoulders above the rest of the MWC in 2010.

BYU, UNLV and Air Force plan to use a couple of signal-callers. The Cougars will start junior Riley Nelson over hyped freshman Jake Heaps. Junior Mike Clausen beat out senior Omar Clayton for the Rebels. Tim Washington edged Connor Dietz for the Falcons' job. The coaches at each say the position battles were close at each school, so the backups will receive plenty of snaps.

The running back group-think includes San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State and TCU. The latter two both have touted transfers from UCLA, including Raymond Carter, most likely among them to become more of a feature back this fall. Freshman Ronnie Hillman has star potential for the Aztecs, whose use of several running backs is mostly determined by scheme, not an inability to separate the quality of players.

How they stack up heading into the season:

1. TCU -- forget the loss of DE Jerry Hughes, the Horned Frogs have three returning starters with eye-popping stats on the defensive line. Andy Dalton returns at quarterback, though there is no experience behind him if he goes down. The receivers are the second-best group in the conference.

2. Utah -- Oceanside High's Jordan Wynn enters his second season as the starting quarterback. Matt Asiata, who has seemingly been there for a decade, will split carries with Eddie Wide. Early issue could be loss of two projected defensive starters for the season due to injury.

3. Air Force -- Jefferson ought to finally reach his potential and, if he does, watch out MWC. Asher Clark returns at RB. The offensive line is experienced and the defense is almost always good.

4. BYU -- The Cougars are in full makeover mode without QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga and TE Dennis Pitta. They could even slip to fifth if the rotating QBs struggle or another team is ready to move up a notch. Lots of new faces on defense, too, guys they hope are faster and more athletic. The schedule opens poorly, with an 0-3 start possible.

5. Wyoming -- Only the schedule keeps me from swapping the Cowboys with BYU. Sophomore QB Austyn Carter-Samuels could be a star in the making and the secondary is experienced. The issue is depth. The starters are good enough, but injuries could ruin a potentially good season.

6. San Diego State -- Of course, if they didn't play in Laramie, I'd be tempted to move the Aztecs up. You know about them. QB Ryan Lindley is ready to break out, and the receivers are among the top group in the nation. Keys are offensive line run-blocking and improvement in the defense getting into opposing backfields.

7. Colorado State -- Valhalla High's Pete Thomas will start as a true freshman, which means growing pains, and the first two MWC games are vs TCU and Air Force.

8. UNLV -- A new coaching staff probably means improvement is likely to be slowed this year, and the QB raises concerns. The loss of reliable WR Ryan Wolfe will also hurt. New coach Bobby Hauck hopes to run more this year. Run defense among nation's worst last year.

9. New Mexico -- The Lobos will probably be better than last year's disaster under second-year coach Mike Locksley, but an 0-3 start is likely with games at Oregon and vs. Texas Tech and Utah. Then they go to UNLV, which is why the Rebels are rated higher.

The season starts with a bang, with Utah hosting Pittsburgh on Thursday. Saturday games include Oregon State vs TCU at the Cowboy's stadium, Washington at BYU, Colorado at CSU and Wisconsin at UNLV. I think the Horned Frogs and Rams emerge victorious. Monday, Boise State, which joins the conference next year, travels to Virginia Tech, and they're at least worth watching. If the Broncos were in the MWC this year, I'd rank them first on the strength of their Fiesta Bowl win over TCU in January.

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I'm thinking BYU is walking off a cliff, long-term. We'll see how it works out. Look for the MWC to join forces in some manner with Conference USA, which has some schools with an SDSU history like Tulsa, UTEP and Houston, and other legit programs like East Carolina and Southern Miss.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Freshmen Have SD Back of College FB Map

When La Costa Canyon High's Kenny Stills became one of three San Diegans to join Oklahoma's 2010 recruiting class, the same old question rose of why would an elite player go to a big-time school and wait three years when he could just go to San Diego State and start immediately?

In too many cases over the years, it turned out to be a good question. There have been too many what could have beens.

Not in the case of Stills, nor his local compatriots. According to NewsOK.com, Stills is likely to start for the Sooners this fall as a true freshman. That is no small accomplishment, considering that OU returned all of last year's pass-catchers. If you saw their Sun Bowl win over Stanford last December, you saw some pretty good ones, too. Stills caught the eye of head coach Bob Stoops and his assistants with his maturity and knowledge of the game, the result of having a former NFLer as a dad. So much for going to a major program and getting lost in the shuffle.

Fellow true freshman Tony Jefferson, from Eastlake High, is set to be the starting nickel back in passing situations. It appears that the third first-year player, running back Brennan Clay of Scripps Ranch High, will also get some snaps.

Here is how big their achievements are: Oklahoma is a reasonable dark-horse pick to emerge as a national champion this year. Last year, some publications picked the Sooners as the team to beat, but their season was ruined by injuries to TE Jermaine Gresham and QB Sam Bradford. Now they're healthy and could make some noise. That is the type of team that Stills, Jefferson and Clay are breaking into.

Their rise, and the emergence of several other young area footballers, is returning San Diego to college football prominence not seen since early in this decade. You won't find many upperclassmen on two-deeps, but there are true freshmen and redshirt freshmen galore.

-- A big splash was made earlier this month when true freshman QB Pete Thomas was named the starting quarterback at Colorado State.

-- Receivers Davon Dunn and Victor Dean, the Lincoln High two-some at Fresno State, have reportedly been impressive in fall camp, though the Bulldogs aren't publicizing their two-deep.

-- Those who did stay home at SDSU are thriving. Jake Fely (Oceanside High) is the backup MLB, and ex-Pirate Rene Siluano should find time on special teams. A third Pirate, King Holder, also might get some time at cornerback or special teams.

-- Deon Randall, the Francis Parker star who spurned the Aztecs to go to Yale, will play wide receiver for the Ivy League school.

At Stanford, redshirt freshman TE Levine Toilolo (Helix High) moved past a returning regular and will start. Coach Jim Harbaugh is reportedly enamored with his 6-foot-8 frame, and for good reason.

But this is where things begin to get murky. There is little to no mention anywhere in Palo Alto of Escondido High's Ricky Seale, another one who barely eluded the grasp of SDSU's Brady Hoke. Tyler Gaffney, the former Torrey Pines High star who saw some snaps at RB last fall, is suddenly buried fourth at the position many thought he would inherit after the departure of starter Toby Gerhart. He's sporting a fancy new Mohawk 'do, however.

Lastly, you have the saga of Mission Bay High's Dillon Baxter at USC, since I suspect you're already familiar with the story: making spectacular plays in the Trojans spring game and then being caught under the influence of marijuana at a dormitory, resulting in a suspension for Thursday's opener at Hawaii. Baxter is a smart kid, despite the youthful indiscretion, and has apparently picked up the offense so well that he is being looked at as an emergency QB, according to the LA Times. The Trojans are brittle behind starter Matt Barkley because of a transfer, an injury to backup Mitch Mustain and eligibility issues surrounding a recruit. You'll find Baxter all over the Coliseum Field, but not until Sept. 11.

San Diego's sudden return to great heights for high school football products is no one-time thing, either. DTs Mustafa Jalil (Cathedral Catholic) and Christian Heyward (Point Loma) are elite recruits who will be seniors this fall, along with WR-DB Stefon McClure of Vista. Other recruits include OLs Daniel Murray (Torrey Pines), Taylor Reich (Westview) and Brian Farley (Patrick Henry); LBs Tyrone Sauls (Christian) and Aaron Wallace Jr. (Rancho Bernardo)-- using Rivals.com info.

2010 is going to be a good year to get out and watch some games on both Fridays and Saturdays.

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SDSU's locals who will play a lot: QB Ryan Lindley (El Capitan), FB Brandon Sullivan (Poway), WRs DeMarco Sampson (Castle Park) and Osmond Nicholas (Oceanside), TE DJ Shields (Bonita Vista), T Tommy Draheim (El Capitan), LB Jake Fely (Oceanside), CB Jose Perez (Oceanside), P Brian Stahovich (Torrey Pines), PKs Brian Shields (Bonita Vista) and Abel Perez (Castle Park).

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Coming This Fall: Run Game Lessons

San Diego football fans, be prepared for schooling this fall. You're taking a lab class, call it "Running Game Lab 101."

God knows we've taken the lecture version, and I've contributed my share. The Chargers offensive line sucks, LaDainian Tomlinson has lost a step (or two), Norv Turner overly favors the passing attack, San Diego State can't recruit enough quality blockers and the Aztecs (and USD for that matter) have lost too many ball-carriers to injuries.

This fall, we will learn some truth.

The Chargers enter 2010 with an offensive line that will not be as good as last year, barring a miracle. If you read this blog last fall, then you'll know I'm not a big fan of holdout LT Marcus McNeill. I think he is in the middle of the pack as far as left tackles go. However, he is an established pro, and you don't let one of those guys go lightly. It's kind of like choosing the devil you know over the one you don't know. I highly admire Brandyn Dombrowski's ability to work his rear end off to not just make the team, but play multiple positions on the offensive line. The SDSU alum has become invaluable and is on his way to a solid pro career. But he is not McNeill. It will be interesting to see how he fares.

Before I digress too much, running back Ryan Mathews is entering his rookie season in relief of LT.

Put that combination together and our first laboratory observation will be who was right in the "offensive line or LT?" question. Let's say Mathews goes off on Kansas City for 150 yards and a couple of scores in the Monday night opener, behind a wall of blockers arguably weaker than last year? That won't look good for LT, particularly if he fails to put up big numbers in what will apparently be a limited role with the Jets. Or maybe Mathews, Darren Sproles, Jacob Hester and Mike Tolbert are all stuffed, just like LT was in 2009. Add Tomlinson gaining 4 yards per carry and a couple catches for New York. That puts the onus on the line.

The results will stop a lot of arguing, although one game does not make a trend. It will be an interesting first month for the Chargers to see how things shake out.

Ultimately, it might not matter if the Chargers are unable to generate a running game during the regular season, but it will be a life-or-death issue at San Diego State.

The Aztecs' inability to reach a bowl can almost be directly linked to a poor ground assault. Beginning in 2009 and working back season-by-season, they ranked 116th, 117th, 105th, 80th, 54th, 80th, 88th, and 114th in rushing offense in Division 1 college football, dating back to the beginning of the Tom Craft era. Ball-toters during that time were guys like James Truvillion, Atiyyah Henderson and the oft-injured Lynell Hamilton. One year, quarterback Kevin O'Connell was the leading rusher. The high-water mark was 2005, when the Aztecs ran for 148 yards per game and Hamilton was as healthy as he'd been since his freshman season.

Again, the question is the same. Has it been bad blocking or lousy running backs? Even in the 1990s, when Aztec offenses often rang up TDs by the bushel thanks to running backs like Marshall Faulk and George Jones, the offensive line was often unable to get a push against decent defenses.

However, in recent years, even with such lowly rushing rankings, SDSU has sent a number of blockers to pro football, including Dombrowski, Lance Louis of the Bears and Will Robinson of the Redskins.

The only running back to receive NFL pay has been Hamilton, who won a Super Bowl ring with the Saints last year. Alas, he was released after suffering a serious injury in training camp.

The blockers are supposedly in far better physical condition than when Brady Hoke, line coach Darrell Funk and strength coach Aaron Wellman arrived. They've had nearly two years to learn the system of offensive coordinator Al Borges. Much better, they have legitimate backs to block for. Miscast RB Brandon Sullivan is now a fullback, where he might blossom as a blocker, a ball-carrier from the up-back spot or running as a single back. Freshman Ronnie Hillman is fast and athletic, and has the chance to be the best SDSU back since Hamilton. Walter Kazee showed promise last year in limited action. Depth, as mentioned in a previous post, has been severely depleted by injuries and administrative foul-ups.

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My theories that will be put to test in this fall's lab:

1. The Chargers running game will struggle, but it will be put to a greater test because, without Vincent Jackson lining up at receiver, defenses will be able to double TE Antonio Gates and focus remaining resources on Mathews.

2. The Aztecs ground attack will sparkle vs. lesser lights like Nicholls State and be moderately successful against all but the strongest defenses posed by Missouri and TCU. Conversely from the Chargers situation, where does a defensive coordinator place his resources? The Aztecs have a quarterback ready for a breakout season and a receiving corps rated by one organization as the nation's 11th best. That could leave a lot of room open for draws and traps. If SDSU can at least approach that 2005 ranking of 54th nationally, they will have a game to play in December.

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Consternation is all over the local media on how the Padres drew only in the low-20,000s for the first two games of the Diamondbacks series. I agree with the theory that fans are saving up for the Phillies series. Memo to Jeff Moorad and the rest of Major League Baseball: your ticket prices are way too high. Fans now have to pick and choose which games to attend. No sense going to a mid-week contest against a last-place club when a division contender is coming in for the weekend.

I told you, I told you, I told you a thousand times over that Petco Park was not going to work in the long run. Bad location, too expensive.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Chargers Stadium, Padres, Aztecs and Other Notes

Sorry I haven't posted lately, but I've been traveling or really busy here.

There is no news on the Chargers downtown stadium front, which is good news in itself. I talked today to a source involved in what's going on with the planning, and he says things remain on course, though they do take awhile. The next hurdle to actually building the thing is the possible 2011 lockout of players by NFL owners. The source said that could put the whole deal on hold.

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The Padres are on one of the best runs in the history of local sports after their 5-3 win over the Cubs Thursday. The Friars have won nine of their last 10 games and are 13-5 in August, adding to what has become a huge season, and they now threaten to run away with the NL West. Mat Latos, Jon Garland and Wade LeBlanc were all dominant at Wrigley, and Kevin Correia was pretty darn good although the bullpen allowed a bunch of runs in late ... Shut Latos down now. If you're worried about his young arm like the front office seems to be, this would be a good time to maybe start him every other time through the rotation, then work him on his regular cycle in the second half of September to get him ready for the playoffs ... Oh, yeah, add Chris Young back to the rotation. October is shaping up to be a lot of fun ... The level of play between the Padres and the Cubs was majors to low minors.

My confidence in the upcoming San Diego State football season, that they will compete for a 6-6 bowl, is ebbing just slightly on reports that their running back corps is taking hits from injuries and academic issues. Presumptive starter Ronnie Hillman seems okay, but Walter Kazee is coming back from an injury that cost him spring practice and freshman sensation Ezell Ruffin has been struggling after what seemed to be a non-concussive head injury. Add to that an injury to freshman Adam Muema suffered before he reported, and freshman Dwayne Garrett and Deonte Williams becoming academic casualties, and a deep, talented group has been whittled down significantly. That nailing of seemingly every guy in a unit has killed the Aztecs in past seasons. I remember the last time SDSU was actually favored by some to win the Mountain West Conference, like 2001 or something, and practically the entire offensive line went down ... Head coach Brady Hoke has got to do something about the academic side of things. None of the academic issues involving Hillman last year, Garrett or Williams appears to be the fault of the kid, rather school administrators at State or the player's previous school. I'd be raising hell ... I like the MWC adding Fresno State, though Nevada doesn't thrill me ... BYU's threats to go independent in football are the death-knell to the conference's television contract. The Mtn. seemed like a good idea at the time, but the Y's actions this week strike me as being a referendum on the future of the league's cable TV network, and it was not good ... Love how the MWC pulled the rug out of the Cougars plans to join the WAC in other sports. That conference might whither and die.

We'll learn a lot more about the Chargers this Saturday against the Cowboys than we did last week against the Bears, but the Bolts did appear deep ... LB Shawne Merriman comes in to camp late, tries to catch up, goes down with his chronic Achilles heel injury. There's a shock for you ... If someone had told you two years ago that Malcom Floyd was the Chargers top receiver, what would you have thought?

Monday, August 09, 2010

USD Football Training Camp

Wasn't it just the other day that the University of San Diego had the best non-scholarship football program going? The Toreros were churning out a couple of NFL-caliber players and beating teams they never defeated before, including those who gave out some scholies?

Those days aren't necessarily over, but after 2009's 4-7 campaign, you have to start wondering if the end is not at least close.

The Toreros report to training camp on Tuesday to try to get back on the winning track as Ron Caragher enters his fourth year as the head coach. Before last season's disappointment, he put together consecutive 9-2 campaigns. It'll be interesting to see if he can get back there again.

The 2010 Toreros will be built around senior DT Paul Tremblay and junior DE Mario Kurn (both of Santa Fe Christian), who had four sacks and 10 tackles for loss. The 12 returning starters include five on offense, six on defense and placekicker Mike Levine. The rushing game could be enhanced by the return of injury-plagued RB Phil Morelli, and John McGough (49 receptions) and 2009 Pioneer League Offensive Freshman of the Year Kyle Warren (6 TDs among 11 catches) lead the receiving corps.

There are three names on the roster worth pointing out, transfers of the sort that have powered USD in the recent past: former Union-Tribune Male Athlete of the Year QB Mason Mills (Coronado High), ex-Helix High and Southwestern College RB Kenslow Smith, who returns home from Sacramento State, and TE Colin King, who brings excellent size in from the Air Force Academy.

The home schedule is highlighted by a Sept. 18 visit by FCS scholarship program UC Davis and a showdown a week later with defending PFL champion Butler.

Caragher's seat could be a bit warm, if USD's push to advance its athletic programs remains as strong as it did a few years ago when a number of longtime coaches in several sports were sent packing. There are a lot of reasons for last year's 4-7, including stability at QB and injuries. Whether the after-effects are to be felt in 2010, I don't know. Lindy's preseason college football magazine listed the Toreros fourth in the PFL behind Jacksonville, Butler and Dayton but The Sporting News puts them seventh. Phil Steele's magazine did not place any USD players on the first team PFL squad.

That could be all from a bunch of unknowns who will make their marks in 2010. Or it could be a continuation of a downward trend. Either way will be interesting, because this program is in flux.

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Aztecs Pre-Season Camp Preview, Padres Concern

Pretty good preview of San Diego State's football training camp in The San Diego Union-Tribune Sunday. Thorough, but here's a couple points to add:

1. A major position battle is brewing at safety, where Coach Brady Hoke has constantly mentioned the names of redshirt freshmen Gabe Lemon and Nat Berhe, who will push incumbents Darryn Lewis and Brandon Davis. He's also talked a lot about redshirt freshman Khalid Stevens, who is penciled in at the Aztec position on the latest depth chart behind presumptive starter Andrew Preston.

2. While the article stated the running game would improve with the presence of Ronnie Hillman, Hoke has been hyping true freshman Dwayne Garrett.

3. Jose Perez and Leon McFadden are listed as starters at cornerback, but I'm wondering if Josh Wade can finally break through in his third college season.

4. Hoke praised the conditioning of DE Jake Tauanuu, who is listed as second on the depth chart behind under-performing starter BJ Williams. That could be another position battle.

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Let me be the first to say I'm worried about the Padres all of a sudden. I can't, off the top of my head, think of a stretch of this season in which they've played more poorly. They really miss 2B David Eckstein, their sparkplug, and he's reportedly another week at least from being able to play. Ever since the Thursday afternoon 9th inning win over the Dodgers 10 days ago, they've gone downhill.

Maybe they angered the baseball gods by playing a little too fast and loose with the disabled list, which they've used since the All-Star break to keep their roster at 25.

Friday, August 06, 2010

Hoke Challenges Fans, Padres and Bolts Notes

San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke ended his annual pre-training camp media day Friday with a challenge for the community and alumni to support his Aztecs this fall, a normal comment for someone in his position to make around now but one that is particularly relevant in these lean times.

Quite frankly, there has been no drearier place in town on a fall Saturday in recent years than Qualcomm Stadium when SDSU is playing. The Q is like a giant morgue when the red and black is on the field. I think the last time there was any sustained interest in the Aztecs among prospective fans was 1999, coming off the previous bowl season. There were sporadic moments of fun under Tom Craft, none under Chuck Long, under whom the program struck bottom.

Hoke and especially his fine staff have done what appears to be an excellent job of revitalizing the program, but I can tell you that until I'm blue in the face. You're not going to believe me until the Aztecs win some football games. That's how it should be after all this time. I think they'll get their share of victories, but I'm still not ready to say they're ready to take off. They should win enough to get into a bowl game. However, the average fan who has not shown up the past 10 years was right, and the rest of us who showed up for the weekly drudgery were wrong.

There's not much Hoke can do but win games and put together a few successful seasons in a row. A name-brand star a la Marshall Faulk will help. He might have two this year in QB Ryan Lindley and WR Vincent Brown. They're not Faulk but they could be darn good. They're also not household names. I've yet to hear anyone say they're willing to part with their time and money to watch those two play the way they did when Faulk was around. I'm not sure that you want to keep marketing in mind when you're developing a game plan, but if Hoke can find a way to have Lindley throw for 300 yards and have Brown catch 200 of them and grab three or four TD passes, that would be a good start. Ordinarily, you want to sit your starters early against the likes of Nicholls State, but he might not have such an option.

San Diegans might eventually respond to Hoke's call, but they'll want to see what cards he's holding first. Local college football fans aren't just twice-burned, they are more like 15 to 20 times-burned. They might take the coach seriously, but they won't act that way toward his team until he puts some big numbers into the W column.

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Okay, I love watching Padres OF Chris Denorfia. Hands down my favorite Padre now that 2B David Eckstein is on the DL ... Here's to hoping what we've seen the last week or two out of P Kevin Correia really means something positive. They need that one more solid starter and maybe he's the answer ... I was thinking of Eckstein as my team MVP, but with him being out so long now I'm leaning more toward C Yorvit Torrealba.

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Does the Chargers training camp strike you as being boring? Who cares about the damn holdouts anymore? And there aren't many real position battles ... Interesting how SS Steve Gregory is suddenly having a great camp now that he's got real competition for his job, in one of the fights for jobs that does exist ... LB Larry English beating LT prospect Brandyn Dombrowski like a drum does nothing for me unless pads are on.