Building on the last post and with just a couple days before the beginning of the college football season, its time for me to make my predictions of what will happen in the Mountain West this year.
Concerning the Aztecs, there are two factors that should result in major improvements on both sides of the ball.
First, the change to Brady Hoke and his celebrated coordinators -- Al Borges for offense and Rocky Long on defense. There was zero thinking that went into the offense in 2008. Chuck Long and Del Miller kept their spread offense even though they were going from fleet Kevin O'Connell to dropback passer Ryan Lindley, a true freshman, and even though they didn't have the skill personnel or linemen to carry it off. The results were predictable. Decent efforts by the defense early last season were constantly stymied by an offense that kept going three-and-out. That won't happen this year. There will not just be an emphasis on the run, but Borges has designed his offense to make sure he has the tools to carry out his plans. He has tight ends and fullbacks who can block, run or go out for passes in order to keep defenses on their heels. The linemen will come out of three-point stances. Lindley will be under center. I could go on. Expect serious improvement.
On defense, the read-and-react defense of the past few years under Chuck Long and Bob Elliott turned into the read-and-get-injured defense as smaller players constantly got pummeled. The attacking style of Rocky Long's 3-3-5 suits a smaller, speedier defense and the Aztecs will be much better for it.
The second reason to expect serious improvement is a general return to health. I think much of the reason for last year's lopsided scores was players just didn't have enough physically as the games went on. This year they do.
Strong points -- quarterback, a deep and quick linebacker corps, an experienced front seven.
Weaknesses -- the left side of the offensive line has two players making their first start, a young and possibly talent-shy secondary.
Running the numbers recently, in several ways, I came up with 6-6. Some good breaks mean 7-5 and a bowl bid. I don't really think six wins sends State to a post-season game, but I could be wrong. Bad breaks or injuries means 5-7, still a three-game improvement over last season.
This is a very impressive coaching staff that's doing things right. If the winning doesn't come immediately, it won't be a long wait.
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I see no weaknesses and a lot of pluses for TCU, so to me they are the choice to win the Mountain West Conference and might be, except for a tough schedule, the best bet to bust into the BCS (I think Boise loses against Oregon Thursday, we'll see). BYU will be no better than last year, though the drop off will be minimal. Utah will slip to third or fourth place because of their extreme personnel losses.
My picks:
1. TCU - defense wins championships, and the offense is experienced with third-year QB Andy Dalton, two versatile RBs and the best set of wideouts in the conference.
2. BYU - better defense makes up for the loss of playmaking receiver Austin Collie. The two great tight ends are back, along with QB Max Hall and RB Harvey Unga.
3. Utah - without Brian Johnson at quarterback in 2008, the Utes might have lost three games. Too many playmakers lost on both offense and defense, as well as steady K/P Louie Sakoda.
4. Colorado State - I'm not sure if this is too high, but the Rams obviously have benefited under Steve Fairchild's coaching and they seem to win close games. It looks like they have the RBs to replace Gartrell Johnson, WR Rashaun Greer is tops and the offensive line is veteran.
5. SDSU - The 4-8 spots are kind of a mix in which any of these teams can finish in any order, but I think the new coaching staff can get SDSU right to mid-pack. The games against Notre Dame and UNLV in 2008 showed what this group of players is capable of.
6. UNLV - Lack of depth ends up hurting the Rebels by the end of the season, it seems like, so this year won't be much different. QB Omar Clayton is efficient and WR Ryan Wolfe is a good one. Big stable of RBs but none seem any good.
7. Air Force - Even though soph QB Tim Jefferson could be great, last year he operated with a veteran team. Now everyone around him is young, so they could fall. I'm not sure it'll be this far, but there's plenty of new faces playing for the Falcons.
8. Wyoming - Looks like they're going with a freshman over veteran and turnover-plagued QBs Dax Crum and Karsten Sween. Smart move, but it will take time to pay off. Not much skill talent on offense, but defense is perhaps second only to TCU. If there was any offense at all on this team, they'd be a trendy dark horse pick.
9. New Mexico - Mike Locksley is the anti-Brady Hoke, it seems like nothing he's done has come off well, and it will hurt the Lobos. No more than three wins total.
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