That dark cloud that hovers over San Diego State athletics is showing renewed strength this week after word of two key injuries to star players and two others becoming academic casualties.
It is typical SDSU that a team heads into a season with high hopes, only to be knee-capped by injury, poor schoolwork or criminal misconduct. That has happened to women's soccer, which will enter the Fall 2010 semester with high hopes following a Mountain West Conference Tournament championship and NCAA playoff victory. Cat Walker, the scoring sensation entering her senior season as a team leader, tore the ACL in her right knee earlier this month and is scheduled for surgery in early-August to determine the extent of the damage, according to The San Diego Union-Tribune. There remains hope the midfielder can rest for now and play some in her final season, but I think by now we know where this story is going to go.
The Aztecs have high hopes for 2010 and accordingly fashioned a strong schedule that includes defending national champion North Carolina on the Aztec Sports Deck on Sept. 12 and perennially strong Santa Clara. The Aztecs return seven starters, but it would be nice to have their clutch goal-scorer among them.
The other injury -- breaking news credit goes to Internet message boards and Facebook, not the U-T -- was also a knee injury to incoming freshman footballer JJ Whittaker, the Oceanside High star who was snatched by coach Brady Hoke out of Arizona's grasp. Whittaker was one of the two or three recruiting coups of February's class, a Pac-10 quality receiver or cornerback who might have contributed this fall as a true freshman. The word is Whittaker's knee was ripped up so badly that there is no way he plays in 2010.
JC transfer offensive lineman Joe Unga failed to quality academically and there's talk that an incoming freshman receiver also didn't make the grade.
Now, soccer teams and football squads lose players to injuries and academics. It's the nature of the sports and college life. Isn't it typical for SDSU, though, that the dagger falls on such critical members of the rosters? I've written in the past that whatever dark cloud hangs over Montezuma Mesa appears to be dissipating, but it is not entirely gone.
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The media that covers the MWC figures Hoke's bunch will finish sixth in the upcoming season. That's a safe choice. I understand being rated behind TCU, Utah, BYU and Air Force. From there, it is a bit of a crap-shoot.
The preseason poll lists Wyoming fifth before SDSU, with Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico bringing up the rear. The Cowboys get the Aztecs in Laramie, giving them an advantage in the head-to-head match, but the Pokes could be beat-up before the Red & Black arrives because of a difficult early-season schedule. Plus, SDSU will have vengeance on their minds after the Cowboy's comeback win at Qualcomm Stadium last year all but knocked them out of bowl consideration.
I still see the Aztecs as challenging for a 6-6 bowl game but they're still a year away from a major turnaround. Anything better will be dessert.
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The shoulder inflammation suffered by former Aztec Stephen Strasburg before his start Tuesday for the Nationals against the Braves should serve as a warning for the Padres brass, which planned going into this season to limit the innings thrown by P Mat Latos.
The prized Padres youngster has pitched just once since the All-Star break thanks to the infamous stifled sneeze -- I've got some property in East Village to sell you if you believe that one -- and is set to throw Thursday and Tuesday against the Dodgers. He is currently on pace for more than 200 innings, when manager Bud Black and GM Jed Hoyer had planned to keep him to around 180 frames or less.
It's tempting to keep throwing your best starter out there every six days when you're in a race for a division title but word of Strasburg's injury is going to give them pause.
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Lefty P Joe Thatcher was ready in the bullpen when Andre Ethier stepped up to the plate in the seventh inning of Tuesday night's 2-0 loss to the Dodgers. Thatcher has allowed left-handed hitters a .152 batting average this season, compared to the .274 mark of starter Jon Garland. Ethier is batting .234 against southpaws. Why Black left Garland in the game is beyond me.
Showing posts with label aztecs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label aztecs. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Time to Find Out What Moorad, Hoyer and Hoke Have
We're pretty soon going to find out what Padres incoming owner Jeff Moorad, GM Jed Hoyer and San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke are made of, thanks to two interesting items in the newspaper today. One is on the lagging hitting of Padres outfielders and the other is about the lack of strength among San Diego State football players when coach Brady Hoke arrived in December 2008.
Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.
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On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.
But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.
Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.
Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.
1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.
2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.
3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.
4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.
I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."
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For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.
Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.
If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.
If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.
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As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.
I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.
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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.
Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.
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On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.
But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.
Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.
Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.
1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.
2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.
3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.
4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.
I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."
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For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.
Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.
If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.
If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.
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As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.
I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.
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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
2007 Football Predictions
This fall has the makings of what could be a highly successful season of local football, maybe more so than the late-1970's when San Diego State ruled the roost and the Chargers were beginning to come on strong behind Dan Fouts.
The Aztecs appear to have better personnel entering this season under coach Chuck Long than they did in a 3-9 2006. The offensive is, for the most part, healthy. QB Kevin O'Connell is a senior. The running back corps is deep, and the wide receivers could become a threat for the first time since JR Tolver and Kassim Osgood were running patterns for the red and black. The tight end position has a chance to be productive for the first time in more than a decade.
The defense has switched to a 3-4 set, a long overdue move based on recruiting realities -- the difficulty a non-BCS school has at attracting talented defensive linemen and SDSU's growing reputation as a linebacker factory. The Aztecs have usually attracted far more defensive ends than tackles, too.
The keys to the season: keeping the offensive line starters healthy and the secondary able to at least put up a fight to opposing wideouts. The line may never be able to power a strong running game, but they should be able to give O'Connell that extra split-second he's been needing to find receivers. The secondary is a total unknown, but reports claim they're pretty athletic.
If those points above are met successfully, the Aztecs could go somewhere around 7-5 and qualify for a bowl game -- a welcome holiday gift for suffering fans. If things don't work out so well, then a 4-8 semi-disaster is likely.
My bet is the offensive line will hold together at a reasonable level but the secondary will probably struggle early, particularly since the defense probably won't generate much of a pass rush against good teams. That means something more middlin', meaning the Aztecs could be 6-5 and needing to beat a Top 25 TCU squad when they come to town for the regular season finale on Nov. 24.
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What else is there to say about the Chargers other than they have the most talent in the NFL, and might by far. There are some issues noted in previous posts, such as two new starting inside linebackers and a pair of safeties who are suspect. They might end up in some shootouts this year against quality opponents.
On offense, the wide receivers don't look improved as a group, but Vincent Jackson might be ready to blossom into stardom in his first season as a starter. We'll have to see. And, remember, Philip Rivers had a couple poor games last year. I don't see him having a sophomore jinx in 2007, but the possibility is there nonetheless. The offensive line depth is thin behind some quality starters.
Maybe the biggest problem the Chargers have is Denver being vastly improved, at least on paper. The Broncos are good enough to split with the Bolts and then who knows what they do with the rest of their schedule.
All things being equal, it's probably too much to expect another 14-2 against a tougher schedule, and facing NFL competition. I'm guessing, after going through the Chargers slate, that they'll go 12-4 or 11-5. If they get hit with injuries in the offensive line, the receiver corps beyond what they already face with Eric Parker, it could get worse. Otherwise, this is a high quality team that will almost certainly go to the playoffs. Postseason is the real season as far as Chargers fans are concerned.
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There's a lot of talk in town of USD running the table behind superstar QB Josh Johnson, star RB JT Rogan and a solid defense. But the Toreros do have two games against teams at a higher level: Northern Colorado at home and UC Davis to end the season on the road. Davis is the squad that rather comfortably dealt the Toreros their only loss last season. So one or two Ls this season could happen, but no one else should give them a problem.
The Aztecs appear to have better personnel entering this season under coach Chuck Long than they did in a 3-9 2006. The offensive is, for the most part, healthy. QB Kevin O'Connell is a senior. The running back corps is deep, and the wide receivers could become a threat for the first time since JR Tolver and Kassim Osgood were running patterns for the red and black. The tight end position has a chance to be productive for the first time in more than a decade.
The defense has switched to a 3-4 set, a long overdue move based on recruiting realities -- the difficulty a non-BCS school has at attracting talented defensive linemen and SDSU's growing reputation as a linebacker factory. The Aztecs have usually attracted far more defensive ends than tackles, too.
The keys to the season: keeping the offensive line starters healthy and the secondary able to at least put up a fight to opposing wideouts. The line may never be able to power a strong running game, but they should be able to give O'Connell that extra split-second he's been needing to find receivers. The secondary is a total unknown, but reports claim they're pretty athletic.
If those points above are met successfully, the Aztecs could go somewhere around 7-5 and qualify for a bowl game -- a welcome holiday gift for suffering fans. If things don't work out so well, then a 4-8 semi-disaster is likely.
My bet is the offensive line will hold together at a reasonable level but the secondary will probably struggle early, particularly since the defense probably won't generate much of a pass rush against good teams. That means something more middlin', meaning the Aztecs could be 6-5 and needing to beat a Top 25 TCU squad when they come to town for the regular season finale on Nov. 24.
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What else is there to say about the Chargers other than they have the most talent in the NFL, and might by far. There are some issues noted in previous posts, such as two new starting inside linebackers and a pair of safeties who are suspect. They might end up in some shootouts this year against quality opponents.
On offense, the wide receivers don't look improved as a group, but Vincent Jackson might be ready to blossom into stardom in his first season as a starter. We'll have to see. And, remember, Philip Rivers had a couple poor games last year. I don't see him having a sophomore jinx in 2007, but the possibility is there nonetheless. The offensive line depth is thin behind some quality starters.
Maybe the biggest problem the Chargers have is Denver being vastly improved, at least on paper. The Broncos are good enough to split with the Bolts and then who knows what they do with the rest of their schedule.
All things being equal, it's probably too much to expect another 14-2 against a tougher schedule, and facing NFL competition. I'm guessing, after going through the Chargers slate, that they'll go 12-4 or 11-5. If they get hit with injuries in the offensive line, the receiver corps beyond what they already face with Eric Parker, it could get worse. Otherwise, this is a high quality team that will almost certainly go to the playoffs. Postseason is the real season as far as Chargers fans are concerned.
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There's a lot of talk in town of USD running the table behind superstar QB Josh Johnson, star RB JT Rogan and a solid defense. But the Toreros do have two games against teams at a higher level: Northern Colorado at home and UC Davis to end the season on the road. Davis is the squad that rather comfortably dealt the Toreros their only loss last season. So one or two Ls this season could happen, but no one else should give them a problem.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
SDSU Football - Preseason Predictions
Well, the media covering the Mountain West Conference has issued its preseason football predictions and San Diego State is eighth in the nine-team league. No surprise based on last season.
However, the Aztecs should offer a new look in 2007, now that head coach Chuck Long, offensive coordinator Del Miller and defensive coordinator Bob Elliott have had a chance the past seven months to pick up the pieces from last season's 3-9 disaster.
If nothing else, they'll have a bunch of playing pieces that weren't available last year, with the return to health of QB Kevin O'Connell, a potential deep threat in WR DeMarco Sampson and TE Lance Louis, among others. There's three returning starters on the offensive line -- four depending on how you classify G Mike Schmidt. The defense was playing well by the end of last season. That gives Long some hope heading into the season.
The downside is the usual one for the Aztecs, a lack of quality depth in many areas. If the senior O'Connell goes down early in the season again, true freshman Ryan Lindley will probably be tossed into the fire. As good as he might be, you'd really like to see him be able to redshirt. An injury or two to starters along the either line could be potentially fatal for whatever bowl hopes exist. While safety appears solid, cornerback can't afford any injuries at all. Typical thin Aztecs.
If the fortunes of sports begin to even out and bestow a season of health upon the Aztecs, then they have a shot at a minor bowl game. But they need everything to work out. Bad luck, injuries, or players being counted on not measuring up, and this will be another long season.
My own thought is that SDSU is better than the two teams ranked ahead of them in the MWC poll, Colorado State and Air Force. The trouble there is that the Aztecs have to play both on the road this year (on second thought, that means that SDSU will have the advantage against some better teams by having them at home).
UNLV is a near-unanimous choice for last, not just with this week's media poll, but in the preseason magazines. I see the Rebels actually giving the Rams and Falcons a run for their money, as well. The Rams just don't appear to have much going for them, and the Falcons underwent a coaching change. Both had late changes in offensive coordinators, too. Doesn't look good for them.
However, the Aztecs should offer a new look in 2007, now that head coach Chuck Long, offensive coordinator Del Miller and defensive coordinator Bob Elliott have had a chance the past seven months to pick up the pieces from last season's 3-9 disaster.
If nothing else, they'll have a bunch of playing pieces that weren't available last year, with the return to health of QB Kevin O'Connell, a potential deep threat in WR DeMarco Sampson and TE Lance Louis, among others. There's three returning starters on the offensive line -- four depending on how you classify G Mike Schmidt. The defense was playing well by the end of last season. That gives Long some hope heading into the season.
The downside is the usual one for the Aztecs, a lack of quality depth in many areas. If the senior O'Connell goes down early in the season again, true freshman Ryan Lindley will probably be tossed into the fire. As good as he might be, you'd really like to see him be able to redshirt. An injury or two to starters along the either line could be potentially fatal for whatever bowl hopes exist. While safety appears solid, cornerback can't afford any injuries at all. Typical thin Aztecs.
If the fortunes of sports begin to even out and bestow a season of health upon the Aztecs, then they have a shot at a minor bowl game. But they need everything to work out. Bad luck, injuries, or players being counted on not measuring up, and this will be another long season.
My own thought is that SDSU is better than the two teams ranked ahead of them in the MWC poll, Colorado State and Air Force. The trouble there is that the Aztecs have to play both on the road this year (on second thought, that means that SDSU will have the advantage against some better teams by having them at home).
UNLV is a near-unanimous choice for last, not just with this week's media poll, but in the preseason magazines. I see the Rebels actually giving the Rams and Falcons a run for their money, as well. The Rams just don't appear to have much going for them, and the Falcons underwent a coaching change. Both had late changes in offensive coordinators, too. Doesn't look good for them.
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