Saturday is the real beginning of the Brady Hoke-era for San Diego State football. You only saw a minor imprint of the former linebacker's big paw in 2009 as his staff came to learn just how bad the Chuck Long train wreck was. Now that he's been on the job for about 20 months, Hoke has ownership and responsibility for what happens from here on out.
Thank God for it, because the next couple of years are going to be very interesting in the evolving makeup of college football, and the ability of SDSU football to re-create a viable market in San Diego is going to be of utmost importance. I am glad Hoke is in charge, and making the changes he's making, because I think the landscape of the sport is destined for radical change in the next three or four years. Schools large and small are going to decide they don't like the positions they find themselves in, and it will be worse as time marches on. What is going on now with the looming departures of BYU and Utah from the Mountain West Conference, and the upcoming additions of Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada, is small potatoes. Administrators in Salt Lake City and Provo will happily count their extra cash in the future but will cringe at 7-5 or worse records. The Cougars could be headed for irrelevance in the next few years while the Utes languish against superior competition.
If their futures are repeated at other schools across the country, change in the form of playoffs or super-conferences might take place. My joke is that the only super-conference likely to be formed will have only three teams: USC, Texas and Notre Dame. A three-team league, no one else matters.
Whatever the future holds, San Diego State better be ready. Bad teams playing before small crowds in an uninterested city is a situation no longer sustainable. Hoke has to do some nation-building here, and I think he is off to a good start. He has local high school coaches behind him, unusually strong support from the media, and has come up with some good ideas like last Friday's welcome to freshman, the Warrior Walk and return of the on-field spear planting -- deemed not PC by past administrations.
If there is a decent team that draws reasonably well in one of the 10 largest cities in the United States, then SDSU will be well-positioned for future super-conferences or re-leaguing. If the Aztecs extend their bowl drought much longer, you might be looking at the end of the program entirely.
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Local sportscaster Lee Hamilton wrote this week that San Diego State will be the surprise of college football and go 9-3 this season. I think he is a year too early. I have written here a couple of times that the Aztecs will compete for a 6-6 bowl this fall, and I've seen nothing that makes me change my mind.
There are plenty of causes for optimism:
-- QB Ryan Lindley is in his third season as the unquestioned starter and has shown great passing ability. He has made strides as a pro-style QB and should cut down on his penchant for disastrous errors. Look for him to have a big year.
-- The wide receivers as a group, and Vincent Brown as an individual, are rated high nationally and are a big reason why Lindley will excel. Add improved TE Alston Umuolo to the mix, and I'd hate to be an opposing defensive coordinator.
-- Ronnie Hillman is the Aztecs best chance for a feature back since Lynell Hamilton. While the offensive line gets trashed for not blocking well for the run, I saw a number of instances last fall in which holes were opened but the backs couldn't get through them. Hillman probably will change that.
-- The young depth on defense is exciting. Kids like LB Jake Fely and DB Rene Siluano are playmakers with a nose for the ball.
-- The schedule breaks well early, with the opening cupcake and winnable second game on the road at New Mexico State. No one expects a win at Missouri, but the Aztecs can apply whatever lessons they learned against the Tigers against Utah State at home. By then, the upperclassmen should be humming and the youngsters will have their feet wet -- just in time for the MWC slate.
Reality checks:
-- Of the three ballyhooed JC transfer offensive linemen brought in the stabilize the unit and provide competition, one didn't make it into school, one stuck long enough to go through training camp before being ruled academically ineligible, and the third failed to win a starting position.
-- That failure has left the offensive line awfully thin at right tackle and both guard spots.
-- If Lindley goes down ..., well, you know.
-- Running back depth has also been depleted by academic problems, some of which are not the fault of the student-athletes.
-- The defensive line is manned by players who have been trampled for two or three seasons now. They might be stronger and quicker, but does that mean they're better?
-- That young depth in the secondary will be a lot of fun to watch, but they're still just true and redshirt freshman, which always brings its own headaches. I'm not confident in the returning starters.
-- JC transfer Abel Perez should improve the kickoff situation, which has been horrible for a couple of years. I was not impressed by the coverage I saw in last month's scrimmage. I'm not sure we can count on Perez or Bryan Shields to be more reliable kicking field goals over what was here in 2009.
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Prediction: I think the passing game will be dynamic and spread the field so much that the running game will approve by default. The Aztecs are going to score points by the bushel and be fun to watch because there will be a lot of shootouts. Don't get smug when the defense performs well early. Nicholls State changed coaches and schemes and will need time to settle in, and New Mexico State had one of college football's worst offenses last season. Missouri, however, will hit SDSU up for at least 30, which will probably start a trend. It might be a return to how things were in the wacky WAC, but it will be fun to watch.
Yes, challenge for a 6-6 bowl and probably get there, and defeating whatever WAC, C-USA or Sun Belt team the Aztecs get to play. The most important question is whether Hoke can get anyone to care.
Showing posts with label Ryan Lindley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Lindley. Show all posts
Thursday, September 02, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Time to Find Out What Moorad, Hoyer and Hoke Have
We're pretty soon going to find out what Padres incoming owner Jeff Moorad, GM Jed Hoyer and San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke are made of, thanks to two interesting items in the newspaper today. One is on the lagging hitting of Padres outfielders and the other is about the lack of strength among San Diego State football players when coach Brady Hoke arrived in December 2008.
Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.
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On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.
But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.
Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.
Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.
1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.
2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.
3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.
4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.
I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."
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For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.
Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.
If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.
If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.
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As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.
I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.
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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.
Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.
---
On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.
But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.
Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.
Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.
1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.
2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.
3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.
4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.
I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."
---
For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.
Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.
If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.
If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.
---
As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.
I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.
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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.
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