Based on the last blog post and the subsequent 3-0 sweep of the Marlins, the Padres are now an amazing 45-30 on the season.
I again went through Baseball Reference and I could only find one better start in Padres history, 1998. You know what happened then. Even the World Series season of 1984 saw the Friars at 44-31 after 75 games.
What I really like is I think they've compiled their great mark without necessarily being their best. GM Jed Hoyer could add a hitter at some point. No one is playing above their heads. RF Will Venable is hot at the plate this past week -- what if it's a trend instead of a guy being streaky? What if SS Everth Cabrera makes up for his injury-plagued first half with a solid last three months? What if 3B Chase Headley recaptures his April form? Things can get even better.
It was interesting how this coincides with a newspaper article that wonders whether fans will start noticing. I think they will, particularly with the Rockies in this week. Attendance is down nearly 2 percent from last season. If you really want to see an attendance increase, add a hitter. Show the fans the franchise is serious about contending.
In fact, Venable's surge of the past week, in which he hit three tie-breaking, game-winning homers, shows just how important another hitter can be to the Padres. With their pitching, they only need a little more offense, not a lot. That's how close they are to maybe being favored in this race.
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Did the World Cup really create that much excitement around here or is it just a media fiction?
I'm actually leaning toward the latter, seriously. I have yet to talk to, or overhear others in conversation, about the quadrennial soccer championship. Not once. Sure, people gather at sports bars to watch the games but they always do every four years. This is a big town, so there will be soccer fans and they'll be excited but that doesn't make it new. Those in the media who say the win over Algeria that put the USA in the knockout round was some sort of classic forget that NO ONE WAS ABLE TO SCORE until a rebound came out in front of Landon Donovan. Any U8 player in AYSO could have converted that goal opportunity.
I'm sorry, but the World Cup is an absolute waste of my time and I didn't buy into the over-hype of the past week.
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Two things have me very concerned about what the restructuring of The San Diego Union-Tribune is going to mean to the future of local sports coverage.
1. The most recent round of layoffs included the sports editor and two reporters, Nicole Vargas, the lone remaining specialist in high school sports, and Hank Wesch, who handled USD basketball in addition to horse racing. I since saw a Wesch horse-racing column, so it was either something already in the can or he returned to the paper at half his former salary (an offer extended to several of those recently laid-off, and accepted by a few). Who is going to cover these important facets of the local sports scene now, and are they going to know what in the heck they're writing about?
2. The brass has sold their recent moves to the public with the line of "we're really going to offer extensive coverage of the main areas of interest in local sports -- the Padres and Chargers." What about San Diego State, which could have two ranked basketball teams and which could demonstrate this fall whether the football program is on the rise? What about the paradise sports of golf and tennis? The extreme sports popular with the younger audience?
Call me confused and worried.
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Local tennis buffs should be concerned about Jelena Jankovic retiring from a Wimbledon match early Monday (our time) because of a back injury. The Serb, ranked third in the world, is the highest entrant so far in the Mercury Insurance Open at La Costa next month. Samantha Stosur is not going to sell tickets, no matter how well she played in Paris.
The list of player commitments has few recognizable names at this point and almost no Americans. The biggest missing name is that of Venus Williams, a frequent champion at La Costa in the tourney's older forms. I'm sure most of the big-name players are waiting to see how things play out at Wimbledon before committing to their summer schedules, which are basically precursors to the U.S. Open. Look for a lot of them, including one Williams sister, to be in Carlsbad by the end of July.
Showing posts with label will venable. Show all posts
Showing posts with label will venable. Show all posts
Monday, June 28, 2010
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Padres Proving Theories
On a fairly regular basis this season, in a newspaper account of a midweek Padres game, there has been a phrase similar to: "in front of the third-smallest crowd in the history of Petco Park" or "witnessed by the second-smallest crowd of the season."
The Padres of 2010 have gone a long way to prove out two of my pet theories.
1. Petco Park is in a terribly inconvenient location for most baseball fans, so those 8-10 visits to Qualcomm Stadium per season for many people are dropping to three or four.
2. The generally held theory of San Diego sports fans only supporting a winner is not valid.
I've already harped on the inconvenience of Petco Park's location already this year (check San Diego's Best Sports Values by clicking on April under "Blog Archives" to the right). When I did traffic reporting years ago, the traffic flow patterns before and after Padres games showed the fan base was in the North County. If you live there, you're not going downtown any more than you have to. The transportation, walking, ticket prices, dinner in the Gaslamp, all make a Padres game a major event. People don't do major events 8-10 times a year. Maybe three or four, and they'll wait until summer when it's more convenient.
On supporting a winner, I've always responded that what San Diegans will support is a quality product. It might seem like semantics, but there is a difference. Is watching the team fun? Is there hope that the team will become a contender? Remember those really dull teams that won the NL West a few years ago? That's when the attendance began to dip. People around here are either sitting on their hands waiting for GM Jed Hoyer to acquire a hitter or waiting for the roof to cave in. Padres games aren't a lot of fun this year. I'm actually partial to well-pitched, low-scoring baseball games, but not because I know they can't hit. The joy of great pitching is that they're shutting down big bats. I can't admire someone striking out Will Venable because I know half the high schools in town have hurlers who can K the guy.
Some of San Diego State's biggest football attendance years came when they were mostly hovering around .500, because there were star attractions in Marshall Faulk and, to a lesser extent, Dan McGwire and Darnay Scott. Then they started fiddling around and losing in strange ways, and when coach Ted Tollner picked up the pieces and fielded teams that won 8 games and challenged for the WAC championship, the attendance was generally smaller. The Chargers have had little trouble selling out games whether in last year's 13-3 or 2008's 8-8 mark because they're fun to watch.
I think the Padres attendance will pick up markedly in the next homestand, which is at the end of this month. School will be out, so fans will come based on their own convenience. Someone will report that the locals are starting to believe in this team. Nice.
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Local prep product P Sergio Mitre was quietly putting together a big year as a reliever --mainly -- for the Yankees before going on the disabled list this week with an oblique strain. He was 0-1 with a 2.88 ERA with just 16 hits allowed in 25 innings.
Monte Vista HS's Brooks Conrad is still performing heroically for the Braves, winning a game recently with a bunt single. He's at .275-3-12 in 51 at-bats, which is pretty good in this year of the pitcher.
Speaking of the Braves, Carlsbad HS's Troy Glaus is tied for second in the NL with 49 RBI and tied for eighth with 13 HR.
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Not a local kid, but what will baseball be like without Conrad's and Glaus' teammate, Chipper Jones? He'll leave a void.
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Note to Hoyer: the Diamondback's trade of disappointing OF Conor Jackson to the A's may have signaled the beginning of trade season.
The Padres of 2010 have gone a long way to prove out two of my pet theories.
1. Petco Park is in a terribly inconvenient location for most baseball fans, so those 8-10 visits to Qualcomm Stadium per season for many people are dropping to three or four.
2. The generally held theory of San Diego sports fans only supporting a winner is not valid.
I've already harped on the inconvenience of Petco Park's location already this year (check San Diego's Best Sports Values by clicking on April under "Blog Archives" to the right). When I did traffic reporting years ago, the traffic flow patterns before and after Padres games showed the fan base was in the North County. If you live there, you're not going downtown any more than you have to. The transportation, walking, ticket prices, dinner in the Gaslamp, all make a Padres game a major event. People don't do major events 8-10 times a year. Maybe three or four, and they'll wait until summer when it's more convenient.
On supporting a winner, I've always responded that what San Diegans will support is a quality product. It might seem like semantics, but there is a difference. Is watching the team fun? Is there hope that the team will become a contender? Remember those really dull teams that won the NL West a few years ago? That's when the attendance began to dip. People around here are either sitting on their hands waiting for GM Jed Hoyer to acquire a hitter or waiting for the roof to cave in. Padres games aren't a lot of fun this year. I'm actually partial to well-pitched, low-scoring baseball games, but not because I know they can't hit. The joy of great pitching is that they're shutting down big bats. I can't admire someone striking out Will Venable because I know half the high schools in town have hurlers who can K the guy.
Some of San Diego State's biggest football attendance years came when they were mostly hovering around .500, because there were star attractions in Marshall Faulk and, to a lesser extent, Dan McGwire and Darnay Scott. Then they started fiddling around and losing in strange ways, and when coach Ted Tollner picked up the pieces and fielded teams that won 8 games and challenged for the WAC championship, the attendance was generally smaller. The Chargers have had little trouble selling out games whether in last year's 13-3 or 2008's 8-8 mark because they're fun to watch.
I think the Padres attendance will pick up markedly in the next homestand, which is at the end of this month. School will be out, so fans will come based on their own convenience. Someone will report that the locals are starting to believe in this team. Nice.
---
Local prep product P Sergio Mitre was quietly putting together a big year as a reliever --mainly -- for the Yankees before going on the disabled list this week with an oblique strain. He was 0-1 with a 2.88 ERA with just 16 hits allowed in 25 innings.
Monte Vista HS's Brooks Conrad is still performing heroically for the Braves, winning a game recently with a bunt single. He's at .275-3-12 in 51 at-bats, which is pretty good in this year of the pitcher.
Speaking of the Braves, Carlsbad HS's Troy Glaus is tied for second in the NL with 49 RBI and tied for eighth with 13 HR.
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Not a local kid, but what will baseball be like without Conrad's and Glaus' teammate, Chipper Jones? He'll leave a void.
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Note to Hoyer: the Diamondback's trade of disappointing OF Conor Jackson to the A's may have signaled the beginning of trade season.
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
Strasburg, Padres Notes
The dearly departed Washington Nationals announced Monday that former San Diego State P Stephen Strasburg will make his long-awaited major league debut against Pittsburgh on June 8, barring rainouts. The timing of his first big league start has been the subject of considerable discussion, and this date has been rumored for about a week. Now it’s as confirmed as it ever will be. Kind of funny that now only an act of God could derail the debut of someone the good Lord has so gifted.
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It was interesting reading the letters to the sports editor in the San Diego Union-Tribune Sunday, which expressed opposing views on whether the local baseball franchise was interesting to watch. One writer claimed the punchless Padres were boring, and another stated that Little Ball was fun to see.
My take is somewhere in the middle. I think Little Ball is indeed a lot of fun if executed well. The Friars execute Little Ball terribly. Except for David Eckstein and, in some cases, Tony Gwynn, these guys are only good on the basepaths. But it's more than running to execute Little Ball. Part II is at the plate, where they can't bunt or execute the hit-and-run. Sure, the guy on first might steal second, but the hitter can’t put wood on the ball for hit-and-run plays, sac flies or grounders to the right side of the infield.
I like the basic idea of Little Ball, but it's only fun if well-played.
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Before LF Kyle Blanks got hurt there was a lot of talk about whether he should be returned to AAA to regain his swing. My choice for a ticket to Portland after the weekend is RF Will Venable, who refuses to take the outside pitch the other way. He tries to pull EVERYTHING. In Sunday's game, he came up with runners on second and third and one out, and the National's pitcher fed him a steady diet of baseballs on the outside part of the plate and he was totally unable to poke anything toward left field. Sure, a grounder that direction might not have scored a run, but it could have.
Since that 4-for-5 game at LA that made such a big splash, he's 6-for-35, just under .200, with no extra base hits.
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My favorite Padre now, behind Eckstein, is OF Chris Denorfia. This guy is a gamer -- and a keeper. In about the same time period, he has three more hits than Venable, including a pair of doubles, and three more RBI. With Scott Hairston possibly coming off the DL in a couple of days, the Padres are going to have a big decision to make.
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Nick Hundley and Yorvit Torrealba are the co-MVP's of this team, by the way.
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Yes, I wrote that I wanted GM Jed Hoyer to start working to bring in an outfielder who can actually hit, and that remains the case. But it should also be noted that scoring and hitting is way off all around the major leagues, from the Phillies being shut out by the Mets three games in a row to the Padres doing nearly the same to the Giants every series and the two perfect games in about three weeks.
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It was interesting reading the letters to the sports editor in the San Diego Union-Tribune Sunday, which expressed opposing views on whether the local baseball franchise was interesting to watch. One writer claimed the punchless Padres were boring, and another stated that Little Ball was fun to see.
My take is somewhere in the middle. I think Little Ball is indeed a lot of fun if executed well. The Friars execute Little Ball terribly. Except for David Eckstein and, in some cases, Tony Gwynn, these guys are only good on the basepaths. But it's more than running to execute Little Ball. Part II is at the plate, where they can't bunt or execute the hit-and-run. Sure, the guy on first might steal second, but the hitter can’t put wood on the ball for hit-and-run plays, sac flies or grounders to the right side of the infield.
I like the basic idea of Little Ball, but it's only fun if well-played.
---
Before LF Kyle Blanks got hurt there was a lot of talk about whether he should be returned to AAA to regain his swing. My choice for a ticket to Portland after the weekend is RF Will Venable, who refuses to take the outside pitch the other way. He tries to pull EVERYTHING. In Sunday's game, he came up with runners on second and third and one out, and the National's pitcher fed him a steady diet of baseballs on the outside part of the plate and he was totally unable to poke anything toward left field. Sure, a grounder that direction might not have scored a run, but it could have.
Since that 4-for-5 game at LA that made such a big splash, he's 6-for-35, just under .200, with no extra base hits.
---
My favorite Padre now, behind Eckstein, is OF Chris Denorfia. This guy is a gamer -- and a keeper. In about the same time period, he has three more hits than Venable, including a pair of doubles, and three more RBI. With Scott Hairston possibly coming off the DL in a couple of days, the Padres are going to have a big decision to make.
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Nick Hundley and Yorvit Torrealba are the co-MVP's of this team, by the way.
---
Yes, I wrote that I wanted GM Jed Hoyer to start working to bring in an outfielder who can actually hit, and that remains the case. But it should also be noted that scoring and hitting is way off all around the major leagues, from the Phillies being shut out by the Mets three games in a row to the Padres doing nearly the same to the Giants every series and the two perfect games in about three weeks.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Outfielders Update, Jene Morris
When the newspaper ran a sports section column on Padres GM Jed Hoyer evaluating whether to bring in an outfielder who can actually hit major league pitching, I counseled patience--at least through the weekend. That would give us time to see how Kyle Blanks, Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston and Will Venable did against the rival Dodgers and Giants.
The Padres swept SF but were in turn swept by LA. It's not time to hit the panic button but, with the wins at AT&T Park coming almost entirely because of pitching, the way to lean is obvious. Thinking time is over. Doing something should be the new mode. As has already been reported, AAA is basically devoid of outfield talent because they're all up here -- and hitting like minor leaguers. Ouch!
The options are to sign someone who is currently not on a roster, which comes down to former White Sox OF Jermaine Dye, or trade surplus pitching. Signing Dye might be a quick process but it would be several days to get him ready to play a game. A trade could take days or weeks, and it is something you'd rather get right than wrong.
Here are how the current four outfielders fared over those big six games against the rivals:
Blanks - 0-for-11, 5 strikeouts
Gwynn - 2-for-15, 3 strikeouts and just 2 runs scored
Hairston - 3-for-11, 1 RBI and 1 run
Venable - 2-for-10, 4 strikeouts and an RBI
Now, it is unfair to judge players based on one week's worth of games, but this is actually just a microcosm of what's been happening over the past month with these players. Blanks had no hits and struck out in nearly half his at-bats. Gwynn struck out more times than he was safe on a batted ball -- not exactly living up to the family name -- and as a leadoff hitter he scored only twice. Hairston scored just once. Venable's .200 mark looked pretty good in comparison.
If you fault my analysis, then you're not only seeing things differently than me but also with manager Bud Black. In the past week, he gave three outfield starts to backup infielder Oscar Salazar and one to aging pinch hitter Matt Stairs. In the Bay Area finale, Hairston played all three outfield spots as Black juggled his unproductive lineup during the game.
In all fairness, the rest of the lineup didn't produce, either. 3B Chase Headley was 3-for-24 over that period and 1B Adrian Gonzalez was 4-for-23 with just 1 RBI on Friday's home run.
If, indeed, Hoyer and the front office choose patience, then that could mean the baseball guys don't see anything seriously wrong with the outfielders other than they are in a slump and need seasoning. They could be right. Of course, they won't get much money from fans until they're proven correct, and their careers could be short-circuited if they're wrong.
The Padres host the Giants again and then go to LA, both for 2-game series. Then they go to Seattle against the equally punchless Mariners. After that it's crunch time: they face the Cardinals, surprising Nationals, Mets and Phillies in the following two weeks. The time to make changes maybe hasn't come, but the moment has absolutely arrived to get the ball rolling in that direction.
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The beginning of the WNBA season hasn't been easy on former San Diego State G Jene Morris -- and boy, is it sad to include the "former" in front of her. In Indiana's season opener against Washington Saturday, the first-round draft choice played for more than 14 minutes, but missed her only two shots -- both threes -- and committed three turnovers. She also had a rebound and an assist.
In a 66-62 loss to Atlanta on Sunday, Morris played 5 minutes and 36 seconds, scored a hoop on her only shot, turned the ball over once and committed three fouls.
BTW, Morris made the roster in part by beating out Joy Cheek, the Duke forward who helped eliminate the Aztecs from the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament.
The Padres swept SF but were in turn swept by LA. It's not time to hit the panic button but, with the wins at AT&T Park coming almost entirely because of pitching, the way to lean is obvious. Thinking time is over. Doing something should be the new mode. As has already been reported, AAA is basically devoid of outfield talent because they're all up here -- and hitting like minor leaguers. Ouch!
The options are to sign someone who is currently not on a roster, which comes down to former White Sox OF Jermaine Dye, or trade surplus pitching. Signing Dye might be a quick process but it would be several days to get him ready to play a game. A trade could take days or weeks, and it is something you'd rather get right than wrong.
Here are how the current four outfielders fared over those big six games against the rivals:
Blanks - 0-for-11, 5 strikeouts
Gwynn - 2-for-15, 3 strikeouts and just 2 runs scored
Hairston - 3-for-11, 1 RBI and 1 run
Venable - 2-for-10, 4 strikeouts and an RBI
Now, it is unfair to judge players based on one week's worth of games, but this is actually just a microcosm of what's been happening over the past month with these players. Blanks had no hits and struck out in nearly half his at-bats. Gwynn struck out more times than he was safe on a batted ball -- not exactly living up to the family name -- and as a leadoff hitter he scored only twice. Hairston scored just once. Venable's .200 mark looked pretty good in comparison.
If you fault my analysis, then you're not only seeing things differently than me but also with manager Bud Black. In the past week, he gave three outfield starts to backup infielder Oscar Salazar and one to aging pinch hitter Matt Stairs. In the Bay Area finale, Hairston played all three outfield spots as Black juggled his unproductive lineup during the game.
In all fairness, the rest of the lineup didn't produce, either. 3B Chase Headley was 3-for-24 over that period and 1B Adrian Gonzalez was 4-for-23 with just 1 RBI on Friday's home run.
If, indeed, Hoyer and the front office choose patience, then that could mean the baseball guys don't see anything seriously wrong with the outfielders other than they are in a slump and need seasoning. They could be right. Of course, they won't get much money from fans until they're proven correct, and their careers could be short-circuited if they're wrong.
The Padres host the Giants again and then go to LA, both for 2-game series. Then they go to Seattle against the equally punchless Mariners. After that it's crunch time: they face the Cardinals, surprising Nationals, Mets and Phillies in the following two weeks. The time to make changes maybe hasn't come, but the moment has absolutely arrived to get the ball rolling in that direction.
---
The beginning of the WNBA season hasn't been easy on former San Diego State G Jene Morris -- and boy, is it sad to include the "former" in front of her. In Indiana's season opener against Washington Saturday, the first-round draft choice played for more than 14 minutes, but missed her only two shots -- both threes -- and committed three turnovers. She also had a rebound and an assist.
In a 66-62 loss to Atlanta on Sunday, Morris played 5 minutes and 36 seconds, scored a hoop on her only shot, turned the ball over once and committed three fouls.
BTW, Morris made the roster in part by beating out Joy Cheek, the Duke forward who helped eliminate the Aztecs from the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Time to Find Out What Moorad, Hoyer and Hoke Have
We're pretty soon going to find out what Padres incoming owner Jeff Moorad, GM Jed Hoyer and San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke are made of, thanks to two interesting items in the newspaper today. One is on the lagging hitting of Padres outfielders and the other is about the lack of strength among San Diego State football players when coach Brady Hoke arrived in December 2008.
Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.
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On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.
But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.
Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.
Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.
1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.
2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.
3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.
4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.
I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."
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For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.
Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.
If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.
If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.
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As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.
I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.
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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.
Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.
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On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.
But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.
Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.
Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.
1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.
2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.
3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.
4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.
I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."
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For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.
Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.
If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.
If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.
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As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.
I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.
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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.
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