Showing posts with label brady hoke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label brady hoke. Show all posts

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Hoke Era Begins for Real as Aztecs Seek Viability

Saturday is the real beginning of the Brady Hoke-era for San Diego State football. You only saw a minor imprint of the former linebacker's big paw in 2009 as his staff came to learn just how bad the Chuck Long train wreck was. Now that he's been on the job for about 20 months, Hoke has ownership and responsibility for what happens from here on out.

Thank God for it, because the next couple of years are going to be very interesting in the evolving makeup of college football, and the ability of SDSU football to re-create a viable market in San Diego is going to be of utmost importance. I am glad Hoke is in charge, and making the changes he's making, because I think the landscape of the sport is destined for radical change in the next three or four years. Schools large and small are going to decide they don't like the positions they find themselves in, and it will be worse as time marches on. What is going on now with the looming departures of BYU and Utah from the Mountain West Conference, and the upcoming additions of Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada, is small potatoes. Administrators in Salt Lake City and Provo will happily count their extra cash in the future but will cringe at 7-5 or worse records. The Cougars could be headed for irrelevance in the next few years while the Utes languish against superior competition.

If their futures are repeated at other schools across the country, change in the form of playoffs or super-conferences might take place. My joke is that the only super-conference likely to be formed will have only three teams: USC, Texas and Notre Dame. A three-team league, no one else matters.

Whatever the future holds, San Diego State better be ready. Bad teams playing before small crowds in an uninterested city is a situation no longer sustainable. Hoke has to do some nation-building here, and I think he is off to a good start. He has local high school coaches behind him, unusually strong support from the media, and has come up with some good ideas like last Friday's welcome to freshman, the Warrior Walk and return of the on-field spear planting -- deemed not PC by past administrations.

If there is a decent team that draws reasonably well in one of the 10 largest cities in the United States, then SDSU will be well-positioned for future super-conferences or re-leaguing. If the Aztecs extend their bowl drought much longer, you might be looking at the end of the program entirely.

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Local sportscaster Lee Hamilton wrote this week that San Diego State will be the surprise of college football and go 9-3 this season. I think he is a year too early. I have written here a couple of times that the Aztecs will compete for a 6-6 bowl this fall, and I've seen nothing that makes me change my mind.

There are plenty of causes for optimism:

-- QB Ryan Lindley is in his third season as the unquestioned starter and has shown great passing ability. He has made strides as a pro-style QB and should cut down on his penchant for disastrous errors. Look for him to have a big year.

-- The wide receivers as a group, and Vincent Brown as an individual, are rated high nationally and are a big reason why Lindley will excel. Add improved TE Alston Umuolo to the mix, and I'd hate to be an opposing defensive coordinator.

-- Ronnie Hillman is the Aztecs best chance for a feature back since Lynell Hamilton. While the offensive line gets trashed for not blocking well for the run, I saw a number of instances last fall in which holes were opened but the backs couldn't get through them. Hillman probably will change that.

-- The young depth on defense is exciting. Kids like LB Jake Fely and DB Rene Siluano are playmakers with a nose for the ball.

-- The schedule breaks well early, with the opening cupcake and winnable second game on the road at New Mexico State. No one expects a win at Missouri, but the Aztecs can apply whatever lessons they learned against the Tigers against Utah State at home. By then, the upperclassmen should be humming and the youngsters will have their feet wet -- just in time for the MWC slate.

Reality checks:

-- Of the three ballyhooed JC transfer offensive linemen brought in the stabilize the unit and provide competition, one didn't make it into school, one stuck long enough to go through training camp before being ruled academically ineligible, and the third failed to win a starting position.

-- That failure has left the offensive line awfully thin at right tackle and both guard spots.

-- If Lindley goes down ..., well, you know.

-- Running back depth has also been depleted by academic problems, some of which are not the fault of the student-athletes.

-- The defensive line is manned by players who have been trampled for two or three seasons now. They might be stronger and quicker, but does that mean they're better?

-- That young depth in the secondary will be a lot of fun to watch, but they're still just true and redshirt freshman, which always brings its own headaches. I'm not confident in the returning starters.

-- JC transfer Abel Perez should improve the kickoff situation, which has been horrible for a couple of years. I was not impressed by the coverage I saw in last month's scrimmage. I'm not sure we can count on Perez or Bryan Shields to be more reliable kicking field goals over what was here in 2009.

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Prediction: I think the passing game will be dynamic and spread the field so much that the running game will approve by default. The Aztecs are going to score points by the bushel and be fun to watch because there will be a lot of shootouts. Don't get smug when the defense performs well early. Nicholls State changed coaches and schemes and will need time to settle in, and New Mexico State had one of college football's worst offenses last season. Missouri, however, will hit SDSU up for at least 30, which will probably start a trend. It might be a return to how things were in the wacky WAC, but it will be fun to watch.

Yes, challenge for a 6-6 bowl and probably get there, and defeating whatever WAC, C-USA or Sun Belt team the Aztecs get to play. The most important question is whether Hoke can get anyone to care.

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Aztecs Pre-Season Camp Preview, Padres Concern

Pretty good preview of San Diego State's football training camp in The San Diego Union-Tribune Sunday. Thorough, but here's a couple points to add:

1. A major position battle is brewing at safety, where Coach Brady Hoke has constantly mentioned the names of redshirt freshmen Gabe Lemon and Nat Berhe, who will push incumbents Darryn Lewis and Brandon Davis. He's also talked a lot about redshirt freshman Khalid Stevens, who is penciled in at the Aztec position on the latest depth chart behind presumptive starter Andrew Preston.

2. While the article stated the running game would improve with the presence of Ronnie Hillman, Hoke has been hyping true freshman Dwayne Garrett.

3. Jose Perez and Leon McFadden are listed as starters at cornerback, but I'm wondering if Josh Wade can finally break through in his third college season.

4. Hoke praised the conditioning of DE Jake Tauanuu, who is listed as second on the depth chart behind under-performing starter BJ Williams. That could be another position battle.

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Let me be the first to say I'm worried about the Padres all of a sudden. I can't, off the top of my head, think of a stretch of this season in which they've played more poorly. They really miss 2B David Eckstein, their sparkplug, and he's reportedly another week at least from being able to play. Ever since the Thursday afternoon 9th inning win over the Dodgers 10 days ago, they've gone downhill.

Maybe they angered the baseball gods by playing a little too fast and loose with the disabled list, which they've used since the All-Star break to keep their roster at 25.

Friday, August 06, 2010

Hoke Challenges Fans, Padres and Bolts Notes

San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke ended his annual pre-training camp media day Friday with a challenge for the community and alumni to support his Aztecs this fall, a normal comment for someone in his position to make around now but one that is particularly relevant in these lean times.

Quite frankly, there has been no drearier place in town on a fall Saturday in recent years than Qualcomm Stadium when SDSU is playing. The Q is like a giant morgue when the red and black is on the field. I think the last time there was any sustained interest in the Aztecs among prospective fans was 1999, coming off the previous bowl season. There were sporadic moments of fun under Tom Craft, none under Chuck Long, under whom the program struck bottom.

Hoke and especially his fine staff have done what appears to be an excellent job of revitalizing the program, but I can tell you that until I'm blue in the face. You're not going to believe me until the Aztecs win some football games. That's how it should be after all this time. I think they'll get their share of victories, but I'm still not ready to say they're ready to take off. They should win enough to get into a bowl game. However, the average fan who has not shown up the past 10 years was right, and the rest of us who showed up for the weekly drudgery were wrong.

There's not much Hoke can do but win games and put together a few successful seasons in a row. A name-brand star a la Marshall Faulk will help. He might have two this year in QB Ryan Lindley and WR Vincent Brown. They're not Faulk but they could be darn good. They're also not household names. I've yet to hear anyone say they're willing to part with their time and money to watch those two play the way they did when Faulk was around. I'm not sure that you want to keep marketing in mind when you're developing a game plan, but if Hoke can find a way to have Lindley throw for 300 yards and have Brown catch 200 of them and grab three or four TD passes, that would be a good start. Ordinarily, you want to sit your starters early against the likes of Nicholls State, but he might not have such an option.

San Diegans might eventually respond to Hoke's call, but they'll want to see what cards he's holding first. Local college football fans aren't just twice-burned, they are more like 15 to 20 times-burned. They might take the coach seriously, but they won't act that way toward his team until he puts some big numbers into the W column.

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Okay, I love watching Padres OF Chris Denorfia. Hands down my favorite Padre now that 2B David Eckstein is on the DL ... Here's to hoping what we've seen the last week or two out of P Kevin Correia really means something positive. They need that one more solid starter and maybe he's the answer ... I was thinking of Eckstein as my team MVP, but with him being out so long now I'm leaning more toward C Yorvit Torrealba.

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Does the Chargers training camp strike you as being boring? Who cares about the damn holdouts anymore? And there aren't many real position battles ... Interesting how SS Steve Gregory is suddenly having a great camp now that he's got real competition for his job, in one of the fights for jobs that does exist ... LB Larry English beating LT prospect Brandyn Dombrowski like a drum does nothing for me unless pads are on.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Padres Moves in August, Aztecs Changes Are Real

The Padres aren't done with the trade market. Thursday's acquisition of Miguel Tejada from the Orioles will enhance their playoff chances. The next step will be to win in the post-season, and for that they're going to want another strong starting pitcher.

Note that I used the word "want" instead of "need." I don't think another starting pitcher will be necessary for playoff success, but I still worry about sending Wade LeBlanc up against the Phillies lineup with Roy Oswalt on the mound. Maybe LeBlanc or Jon Garland gets hot, but I'd rather not take my chances with doing nothing.

I might be putting the cart before the horse, but a look at the standings shows the Padres are well-positioned to make the playoffs. They're five games in front of the Phils and Cardinals in a potential wildcard race, six games in the all-important loss column. That is by no means safe, but of all the contenders, I see the two-time defending NL champs as the only team likely to get hot down the stretch. Also, the Padres have shown a great knack of avoiding slumps, so I think they're in the race to the wire.

So the Padres don't need to get their big starter quite yet. In August, you can still trade for players as long as they clear waivers, and there are indications that other teams aren't going to be messing with the waiver wire next month.

The question is who? GM Jed Hoyer might be able to pry Brett Myers (8-6, 3.10 in a hitter's park) out of Houston or Livan Hernandez (7-7, 3.22) out of Washington. Maybe Ryan Dempster (8-7, 3.71) can be taken from the Cubs. But that's about it. As bad as their teams are, I can't see the Mariners giving up Felix Hernandez or the Royals parting with Zach Greinke for anything other than a king's ransom. The good pitchers are with the good teams. So talking about acquiring a solid starter for the playoffs is much easier than actually getting once.

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Changes are afoot with the San Diego State football program. I attended an event Thursday night in which coach Brady Hoke talked and he said the players are all bigger and stronger thanks to dedicated off-season conditioning -- stuff we hear every year about this time.

Here's what convinces me that improvement is coming at SDSU. I talked with a longtime local high school football coach who deals with plenty of Division 1 prospects and he told me the difference between the current staff and the previous one is "night and day." That is good to hear because, ultimately, to have a good football program you need the best players. If local football coaches are comfortable in recommending the Aztecs to their kids, then Hoke is going to start bringing in high-quality recruits.

Previous SDSU coach Chuck Long spoke frequently of putting a fence around San Diego, but it turned out to be so much lip service. You'd hear comments every so often from people connected to area high school powers that they never saw Long or his staff. Hoke and his guys actually go out and do something about it.

I don't know if the change will show up in this year's won-loss record. I still hold to challenging for a 6-6 bowl. But the program finally appears to be on the right track. Let's hope local fans take notice and start showing up again.

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I like Torrey Pines High's Nick Kerr committing to the USD basketball team. The son of longtime NBA star Steve Kerr was not a high-profile recruit, but the Toreros have been very successful with three-point sharpshooters in the past. Here's hoping Kerr becomes the best of them.

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Coryell, Padres All-Stars

Don Coryell epitomized nostalgia in San Diego. The legendary football coach, who died Thursday at 85, took both San Diego State and the Chargers to great heights that, years later, left fans crying out for a return to the good old days.

Chargers fans had two waits of about a decade each, from Coryell's glory years of the beginning of the 1980s to coach Bobby Ross' Super Bowl season, and then again until coaches Marty Schottenheimer and Norv Turner along with GM AJ Smith, brought about the relative success of recent seasons. Both waits through seasons of 1-15, 4-12 and 5-11, were extraordinarily frustrating.

It's been even worse for the remaining few SDSU fans who can remember undefeated seasons in the 1960s. Coryell turned over the reigns of the Aztecs in 1972 to Claude Gilbert, who mostly continued his predecessor's methods and took the program to arguably greater heights against far superior competition. But after SDSU football turned south in 1980, the nostalgia has gone mostly unrequited, save for a few bowl games and the Marshall Faulk excitement. SDSU frequently capitalized on Coryell's popularity by having him make special appearances at football games. If you can't win, bring back the coach who could, at least to say hello.

At both places, Coryell set the bar high, and his successors will always be measured against him. It is a blessing the Chargers are back at such levels. I worry that SDSU fans will sit on their hands and make coach Brady Hoke prove the Aztecs are back before they'll start coming to games again. I feel that way myself, even though I attend the home contests.

Now that he truly is Saint Don, we should all be thankful that he gave us such high standards to aspire to.

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The Padres will have more than one member on the National League All-Star team. Who deserves to go?

1B Adrian Gonzalez is a no-brainer pick for manager Charlie Manuel. But the Phillies' boss' selection of Padres skipper Bud Black as a coach could be a signal that a couple other players are under consideration.

If I were Manuel, my picks would be 2B David Eckstein and P Luke Gregerson.

Eckstein is simply the heart and soul of the roster that claims first place in the National League West and the best record in the senior circuit. Throw out his pedestrian numbers. He's the guy who makes this team go. It doesn't hurt that he's played 68 games at second base and has not made an error. Defense is a big reason why the Friars have been successful so far in 2010.

Gregerson's statistics are mind-boggling. He has thrown in 37 games as of this writing, allowing 16 hits in 39-plus innings, mostly the seventh. The ratio for hits to innings pitched for most pitchers is usually in the neighborhood of 1-to-1. Gregerson's is less than half. Another stunning ratio is 51 strikeouts to four walks. That's four (4)! Needless to say, batters are hitting .121 against Gregerson, who has compiled an ERA of 1.60.

The numbers of eighth inning regular Mike Adams are nearly as good, although I have to admit whenever he comes in when I'm watching, he gets popped. Closer Heath Bell has also done well and is certainly the most nationally-recognizable GAB member, but he might be responsible for too many gray hairs.

I would also consider Mat Latos, he of the sterling 8-4 record and 2.85 ERA, but in this Year of the Pitcher, Manuel won't have any shortage of starters to choose from.

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I had a couple of other items to throw in here today, but nothing else seems worthy all of a sudden, you know? Enjoy your July 4 weekend.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Torrealba's Truth, Leake, Utah

You've got to love a guy who speaks his mind, even when he knows it might cost him in the long run. Yorvit Torrealba is such a man.

After the Padres catcher was suspended for three games for inadvertently making contact with plate umpire Larry Vanover with the bill of his cap on Monday, he went off on the terrible state of officiating at major league baseball games this season.

Torrealba said Vanover was unfair and inconsistent with his strike zone, that umpires are baiting players and that this year has been by far the worst.

"This is the worst umpiring I've ever seen."

"I've never seen the umpiring so inconsistent."

"There is no strike zone. They make us swing at everything. No one knows what the strike zone is anymore." He went on to say that's the reason why hitters are struggling so much this season.

"I know there are some good umpires, but there are a lot of really, really bad umpires."

Torrealba is appealing his penalty and is wise enough to note that his comments might get his suspension increased, not lessened.

The thing is, he's right. You know. I don't have to go into detail. The blown call at first base that cost Tigers P Andres Galarraga a perfect game was only the tip of the iceberg. I watched a game on TV in April which was the worst home plate umpiring I've ever seen -- aside from an NL playoff game years ago -- confirmed by the pitch tracker graphic on the screen. Things apparently haven't improved since then.

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That NL playoff game? A 1-0 shutout thrown by Cardinals P John Tudor against the Giants in Game 6 of the NL Championship Series. Tudor, a junk artist, consistently threw the ball six inches outside all game long, and plate ump Bob Engel kept calling them strikes. Engel three years later was caught shoplifting baseball cards from two stores in Bakersfield and retired after pleading guilty.

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Memo to Reds P Mike Leake, entitled: Get With the Program

Mike:

Congratulations on your fine start to your major league baseball career with the Cincinnati Reds. Like other San Diegans involved in America's pastime, we like to see the local kids do well. The Fallbrook HS community has a lot to be proud of.

However,

you don't go around beating everyone else and then losing to the Dodgers. Especially in a game in which LA might take over first place. Your job in such a situation is to beat them. Your six-inning, nine-hit, five-run performance came up rather short in that regard.

Let me make myself clear. You beat the Dodgers from now on. Understand?

Thank you and good luck the rest of the season.

Jim

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In my view, San Diego State's relative position in the spectrum of collegiate athletics has slightly improved in the past 10 days or so of conference reorganization in which the Mountain West gained Boise State but lost Utah. Until the Pacific-10 invited the Utes to become its 12th member, the Aztecs appeared well on their way to being part of a BCS conference with the Broncos becoming the 10th MWC member. Now they're almost back to where they started, with slight improvements.

1. Boise puts the MWC slightly closer to BCS AQ status than what Utah provided.

2. Boise was successful in overwhelming the WAC year-in and year-out. What happens when the Broncos join in 2011 and finish second? And then come in third in 2012? Does the bloom come off this year's possible Rose Bowl? Utah was in a pretty dominant position as one of the MWC's Big Three. Boise will start at such a level but whether coach Chris Peterson can sustain that success in new digs, like Utah would have, is questionable.

3. Utah is always a threat in mens and womens basketball, while Boise State is not. One easier game for Steve Fisher and Beth Burns. The Broncos men were 15-17 last season with a 5-11 WAC mark that placed them second-to-last. Records the preceding three seasons were 19-13 and 9-7, the high-water mark of 25-7 and 12-4, and 17-14 and 8-8. One good season in four years. The women were 19-12 and 8-8 last season but did have a pair of 20-win seasons recently. Still, they're no Utah.

The next two reasons are potentially huge.

4. I'm not sure the Big 12 can deliver on the TV contract promises that enticed Texas and its loyal followers to remain with the conference. Kansas, K-State and Missouri are possibly in play again a couple of years down the line and you only need three teams to hit the magic 12 mark for a conference championship game. Plus, the Pac-10's quick trigger finger on Utah means if the Big 12 does collapse, there's one more attractive school available for the MWC to snag. That means BCS.

5. Call me crazy on this one but hear (read) me out. The invitation to Utah puts San Diego State a step closer to the decades-long dream of Pac-8 -10 -11 -12 membership. The conference leadership now has no qualms of inviting Mountain West schools to join. A lot of conferences have been talking expansion in order to cash in on the Big Ten model of cable television channel ownership, so getting TV markets is critical. The Pac-10 will probably go down the same route. However, can they really do such a thing with two giant holes in their so-called conference footprint? San Diego and Las Vegas are two of the larger TV markets in the country. Sure, both markets do well in watching Pac-10 football, but they don't really own the market with the hometown schools in another league. Intriguing. Here's to hoping coach Brady Hoke can return the Aztecs to competitiveness quickly.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Reactions to Various Sports News

1. Chargers sign veteran LT Tra Thomas - No doubt a shot by general manager AJ Smith across the bow of holdout LT Marcus McNeill. Thomas was on the verge of retiring, so who knows what he has left physically and mentally. I've never been a huge fan of McNeill so I like the signing on its own merit, even if the incumbent starter was in the fold, just to see how the competition goes.

2. Stephen Strasburg wins major league debut - Quite a well-pitched game. The 14 strikeouts in seven innings only barely begins to tell the story of how well the West Hills HS, SDSU alumnus threw for the Nationals against the Pirates. The thing about Strasburg is there's no reason why he can't do this against everyone. Pitching is all about mechanics and the ability to repeat the proper motion on every pitch, hundreds upon thousands of times over the course of a year. If you're dominating college ball and the minors the way he was, you're also going to be a success in the bigs. Wish he were a Padre.

3. Don't forget Masterson and Harang - Heck of a week for San Diego State pitchers. Justin Masterson, of the Indians, tossed a two-hit shutout of the recently hot BoSox. Aaron Harang pitched the Reds over the Giants, allowing two runs in seven innings in following his worst outing of the season. Hopefully, it begins a trend for the former Patrick Henry HS star, who is now 5-5 but is saddled with a 5.17 ERA.

4. USC, Bush sanctioned by NCAA for violations - First, it's a long time coming. The NCAA will reportedly announce sometime Thursday that the Trojans will face a bowl ban and loss of scholarships for violations that took place during the coach Pete Carroll-Reggie Bush era. The Bush saga has been a sad one, in a way. He seemed like a nice kid from a normal family early in his high school years. Then stardom came and so did those trying to profit off him. He changed as time went on and got dazzled by the bright lights. I don't blame him as much as the people around him, but he made some unfortunate choices. Meanwhile, the U$C recruiting vacuum has been turned off, which should put Aztecs coach Brady Hoke and his boys on a more even footing, only to be impacted, for better or worse, by...

5. Impact of college athletics changes on SDSU - The first domino fell in the conference realignment scenarios Thursday morning when Colorado joined the Pac-10. I thought up to this morning that what will take place would be smaller than forecast, but I'm starting to think I might be wrong. Nebraska's regents meet Friday and will see Colorado's move as writing on the wall, so will reject pleas to stay and join the Big Ten. There are forces at work to keep the Big 12 together, which I thought until this morning would be successful at least for a year or two. There's two scenarios. One is that Texas joins the Pac-10 with Colorado and takes Tech and the Oklahoma schools with them. The other is that they don't (duh). The first is good for SDSU and the Mountain West Conference, as they will then cherry pick the remainder. The second is bad, because a still-strong Big 12 can invite the better MWC schools, which will accept because of the BCS auto-bid, making the MWC a second-rate conference again. My bet: Nebraska goes. The tipping point will be Missouri. If the Tigers flee, too, then the Texas hold 'em scenario crumbles.

6. Second-place Padres - I've seen all I need to see. I'm sure you have, too. This is a pretty good team that needs one more bat. If general manager Jed Hoyer can acquire an outfielder or shortstop who can hit, the Padres will compete for a National League West crown. If not, the Dodgers -- now winning the type of games they were losing at the beginning of the year -- will comfortably win another division title. I'm in no way suggesting the young position players be tossed on the slag heap, but too much is being left to chance in all these 1-0, 2-1 games.

7. The World Cup Starting - Yawn. Wake me when it's over.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Breitbard

I had a few dealings with Bob Breitbard, the dean of the local sports community who died Monday at the age of 91. One stood out, and it really showed what kind of guy he was.

I have an entrepreneurial bent, in case you haven't noticed, and I had an idea quite a few years ago that I want to run by him so he could judge its worth. I think it would have been in the early 1990s. He was still heavily involved in his business, California Linen Supply, which provided laundry services for hotel towels and bedding -- quite a lucrative slice of this town's thriving tourism industry.

He was only too happy to meet with me. He invited me up to his office right there in his downtown plant. We must have met for a half-hour and he gave me some encouragement and the advice I sought. This gentleman who was more used to hanging out with baseball Hall of Famer Ted Williams had no problem taking time out of his day to listen to some guy he'd never met before.

Ultimately, the idea didn't go anywhere, but it wasn't because of Bob Breitbard. This man, who was among those who brought the Chargers to San Diego, promoted the Padres from AAA to the major leagues and established the Holiday Bowl, graciously led me to the next step in the process.

When I operated Sandiegosportstown.com years later I tried to repay the favor by publicizing events at the sports museum Breitbard founded, the San Diego Hall of Champions. He is one of those guys who might now be gone, but the results of his works will remain with us for a long time to come.

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I sure hope San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke is getting his program on track. In 2010, the non-conference schedule will be embarrassingly easy with home games against Nicholls State and Utah State, and road contests at New Mexico State and Missouri. Only one loss there.

But 2011 will be much different. It was announced Tuesday that SDSU will make its second appearance in the Big House with a game at Michigan. A home game against Washington State is also on the docket, as is another roadie at Army. The season opens at The Q against Chuck Long-nemesis Cal Poly-SLO.

The slate in 2012 includes an opening road game at Cincinnati and home contests vs. Army, North Dakota and San Jose State. It wouldn't shock me to see the Fighting Sioux replaced by someone more interesting, as it looks like Hoke might be up for the challenge that scared his predecessor.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Time to Find Out What Moorad, Hoyer and Hoke Have

We're pretty soon going to find out what Padres incoming owner Jeff Moorad, GM Jed Hoyer and San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke are made of, thanks to two interesting items in the newspaper today. One is on the lagging hitting of Padres outfielders and the other is about the lack of strength among San Diego State football players when coach Brady Hoke arrived in December 2008.

Good articles on what's going on in local sports. Let me bump them up a bit with the stakes involved.

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On the Padres outfield, it is worth noting that from left to right, Kyle Blanks' stat line is a measly .180-3-14, Tony Gwynn is at .211 with just 8 runs scored and Will Venable is .220-4-12. Scott Hairston's line is .243-6-13, and he deserves considerable credit for Tuesday's 3-2 win at San Francisco with an 11-pitch leadoff at-bat that exposed Giants P Barry Zito's stuff for the rest of the lineup. Hairston himself didn't do too much the rest of the game, but the guy right behind him, 2B David Eckstein, went 2-for-2 with three walks. I don't think that's coincidence.

But the main point of the newspaper article is now that we're into mid-May and the outfielders aren't producing at the plate, Hoyer has to decide whether to stick with the young kids or make a trade for some hitting. Tuesday's Giants game shows perfectly the problem. Their pitchers issued 12 walks, yet the Friars only cashed in with 3 runs. That's a problem. Blanks, Gwynn and Hairston were a combined 0-for-7.

Clearly, the outfielders need to start hitting--the sooner the better. Or did you not notice the Dodgers creeping up in the standings after a rotten start? Either the guys who are there have to produce, or someone needs to be brought in who will. This is not merely a challenge to see if the new ownership is willing to open its wallet to win a division, though that's part of it. The issue for Hoyer and his baseball people is do he, and they, have the touch for knowing when to make a move and when to stand pat? The decision-making they're faced with is as much art as science, experience as raw data. No one said it would be easy.

Here's my thinking, if I'm in Hoyer's shoes.

1. I'm in my first series in San Francisco and I haven't played the Dodgers at all. Let's get through the weekend before I start to worry about this stuff. Hey, the Padres are 4-0 against the Giants, their closest pursuers at the moment. In the sweep of SF at Petco, my primary outfielders were 6-for-19, a .317 clip.

2. If I still have an issue next Monday, I look at whose been proven and who has not. Gwynn is in his fifth major league season with a career .256 batting average and no sock. I like his speed and defense, but there is no longer any expectation of improvement from him (I feel like I've really been bagging on the Gwynns lately, and I don't mean to, but facts are facts in a performance-based industry). Hairston is in his ninth season as a .252 career hitter. He is also as good as he is going to get.

3. Blanks and Venable are in only their second big league seasons, and Blanks missed a lot of last year with his foot injury. They're both babies, so to speak. They will need time to develop. The question is where? This is when the baseball people come in. It might be best to continue to work against major league pitchers. It might be better to send them to AAA Portland to fix flaws that have developed or restore their confidence. Or would a return to the minors shatter promising young players? Big questions here.

4. The newspaper article suggested signing former White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye, who is available after not being re-signed following a bad second half of last season. This is where Moorad comes in. Dye might be a cheap alternative. Or do you go big? The Padres have pitching depth that has given Portland six hurlers with major league experience, eight if you count Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell, who were called up as replacements for the grieving Kevin Correia and ailing Tim Stauffer. Are you willing to package some young pitchers in exchange for CF Adam Jones of struggling Baltimore? The Morse High product slugged 19 homers and swatted 22 doubles last year and plays superb defense for a lousy team. How about getting the experienced Scott Podsednik from Kansas City, who has rejuvenated his career and appears to be his old self again at the age of 34? Baltimore could use some pitching, but KC is desperate for it. Right now, I'd say those are the two CFs most likely to be available for trade and helpful to the Padres cause.

I think we're a bit premature on all this, but the article came out now so I thought I'd respond. Hopefully on Monday I can post a "never mind."

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For Hoke, he appeared at an Encinitas gabfest and repeated his quote that his Aztecs were woefully weak physically when he arrived on Montezuma Mesa and his players were ready to pack it in mentally after the 2009 season-opening 33-14 loss to UCLA.

Rome wasn't built in a day, so to expect significant change in size and strength in Hoke's first season was not realistic and it didn't happen. But by the time SDSU opens the 2010 campaign, it will have been nearly two calendar years since he and his supposedly wonderful strength coach, Aaron Wellman, stepped on campus. Serious change is due.

If the Aztecs are stronger in the lines, then they will be better than everyone in the Mountain West other than the Big Three of TCU, BYU and Utah; and might be at least close to as good as Air Force. They have a pretty decent QB in Ryan Lindley and the best receiving corps in the conference. They could score a lot of points on the weaker opposition.

If Hoke and Wellman are all that, we should see the results as early as this fall. I don't want to see lines pushed backward. I want to see the skill talent freed to make plays. I still think the overall talent level is 6-6ish, but that's a longer term issue than less than two years.

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As long as we're on Aztecs football, here's another challenge for Hoke. He and QB coach Brian Sipe have yet to match predecessor Chuck Long--God it pains me to write those last three words--in one area, QB recruiting. One of the few things Long got right was bringing in Lindley. I don't think incoming freshman Adam Dingwell of Rockwall, Texas, is of the same caliber, though I might be wrong. I'm talking about a major recruit here, and as star-crossed as Lindley's career has been, he was a major recruit.

I don't see SDSU being ready yet to compete for Top 10 quarterback recruits yet and they've only gotten or really challenged for a handful over the years anyway. But a 15-25 guy nationally, like Lindley, needs to come in here for this program to take off.

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Wednesday post on SDSU football on Yahoo!'s Dr. Saturday blog. Pretty fair assessment.