If I had no morals, I would use the "delete" function offered by the blog host and just erase my predictions for the second-half of the baseball season. While my straight-out predictions proved wrong, I was correct in what turned out to be the Padres' downfall, as the starting pitching suffered from the sudden loss of effectiveness of David Wells, occasional struggles by Jake Peavy, and injuries to Chris Young and Greg Maddux.
So, into the off-season we go, and it should be an interesting one. Here are the priorities for the front office during the fall and winter months:
1. Coach the hitters - The Padres did not lose their play-in game in Denver because of Trevor Hoffman or a blown call at home plate. They lost because of a late-inning by late-inning failure to cash in on opportunities as every hitter but Brian Giles swung for the fences. Just putting the ball in play could have pushed a run across late in the game and Hoffman could have extinguished the Rockies while they were, too, shooting for home runs. Instead, the Rox clued in and did what the Padres should have -- took pitches consistently to the opposite field in the final inning of play.
If it looks like I'm picking on one game, I'm actually just using it as an example. The last home game I went to, a similar extra-inning loss to Colorado on the Friday night of the final series at Petco Park, saw similar bat work by the Padres. You can't have a team that only scores via the home run, but that's what the Friars were trying to do in a lot of games.
2. Sign Mike Cameron - Okay, I'm no big fan of his. But Brady Clark showed just how important center field defense is in large parks like Coors Field and Petco. Cameron struck out a horrifying amount of times, like 160, which is Bobby Bonds territory. But he stabilizes the outfield defense and injects much-needed speed into the lineup. Sign him and bat him seventh.
The trouble is that there is one guy who was smiling as he watched Clark struggle Monday night. That's Cameron's agent. Guarantee they're not coming off their asking price too quickly now when they negotiate with the Padres.
3. Fill the holes - Assuming that Cameron re-signs, then Kevin Towers has to fill left field, second base, and two starting pitching spots. Scott Hairston provided late lightning on four occasions this season, but he's not a consistent hitter and not a good enough defender to compete for a fulltime job, which is why Arizona was willing to let him go. He's a 2007 version of Jim Leyritz, the 1998 wonder who fell apart the next season. Keep Hairston as what he is, a good substitute. Maybe good enough to start in left if there's reason to think Milton Bradley will be ready to play by May.
Solutions are more likely to come from trades than the free agent market. The only free agents who fit Padres needs and are, IMHO, worth signing, are infielder Mark Loretta, pitcher Matt Clement and LF Adam Dunn. All have good and bad points. Loretta hit .287 and had 460 at bats for the Astros while only striking out 41 times, but had no power at all and will turn 37 next season. Clement has been a solid starting pitcher since leaving San Diego, but he's well into his 30s and did not pitch for the Red Sox this year because of an injury that limited him to just 12 appeances in 2006. Dunn had perhaps his best season overall with a his highest batting average (.264) since 2004, 40 home runs for the third year in a row and his fewest strikeouts over a full season in his career -- although that was still 165 and the Reds hold a team option for him.
So Towers' options are limited in free agency. Trades are another matter. As soon as you'd think other general managers would be leery of dealing with the man, someone shows up believing he can snooker him. Other teams, wary of how the relief-shy Mets collapsed, will be after bullpen talent, and the Padres have some short-inning arms to spare.
4. Evaluate the young pitchers - It's pitch or cut bait with young pitchers Tim Stauffer, Justin Germano, Clay Hensley and Mike Thompson. The brass has to decide once and for all whether they will make it as fulltime major league starters.
5. Closer reality - Trevor Hoffman is NOT DONE. However, it is becoming clear that Heath Bell, who many teammates and observers believe should be the team MVP, is the best pitcher in the bullpen. Hoffman has made adjustments before and will during this offseason, too. He will come out next spring and be an effective closer for a while. But as Hoffman pitches his first season north of 40 years old in 2008, he's going to need Bell to save some games for him, not the other way around. The sooner Bud Black is willing to be flexible in how he sets up his bullpen -- game by game or week by week or just going with the hot hand -- the better chance the Padres will have at winning ball games.
Overall, it was a pretty interesting and entertaining season. The Padres finished with a better record and were closer to the playoffs than a lot of people expected. They had their share of bad breaks and injuries but were able to plug on via spit and glue. They came up with a third baseman of the future in Kevin Kouzmanoff. They won an awful lot of games in the late innings. They played in October when most other major league teams did not. There are a lot of positives. But they can also stand improvement.
---
NOTES: Sorry, I haven't posted in a while. Kind of the way it is ... I'd have written by now about the Chargers 1-3 start if I could figure it out. There seems to be something different every week, which leads me to think that there's some general weakness all over, from the general manager to the coaches to Philip Rivers to the offensive line, to the defensive line not tying up lineman, the linebackers being out of position and the secondary being just plain awful ... It won't show up in the stats, but the plays by Rivers that killed the Bolts chances against Kansas City were consecutive goal line situations late in the game in which Vincent Jackson was open in the back of the end zone and LaDainian Tomlinson was open in the flat and he ended up not throwing to either of them. The next play, Tomlinson was again open in the flat, and again Rivers couldn't even let the pass loose ... San Diego State might have the worst defense in the history of the school, and they had some pretty bad defenses in the early 90s. The secondary is patchwork, the linebackers are young and injured and the defensive line is not strong enough to stop a Pop Warner offense ... Chuck Long is building through young players, which takes time, but Aztecs fans have heard that song-and-dance repeatedly over the years, with payoffs only coming once per decade.
Showing posts with label san diego. Show all posts
Showing posts with label san diego. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Thursday, September 06, 2007
2007 Football Predictions
This fall has the makings of what could be a highly successful season of local football, maybe more so than the late-1970's when San Diego State ruled the roost and the Chargers were beginning to come on strong behind Dan Fouts.
The Aztecs appear to have better personnel entering this season under coach Chuck Long than they did in a 3-9 2006. The offensive is, for the most part, healthy. QB Kevin O'Connell is a senior. The running back corps is deep, and the wide receivers could become a threat for the first time since JR Tolver and Kassim Osgood were running patterns for the red and black. The tight end position has a chance to be productive for the first time in more than a decade.
The defense has switched to a 3-4 set, a long overdue move based on recruiting realities -- the difficulty a non-BCS school has at attracting talented defensive linemen and SDSU's growing reputation as a linebacker factory. The Aztecs have usually attracted far more defensive ends than tackles, too.
The keys to the season: keeping the offensive line starters healthy and the secondary able to at least put up a fight to opposing wideouts. The line may never be able to power a strong running game, but they should be able to give O'Connell that extra split-second he's been needing to find receivers. The secondary is a total unknown, but reports claim they're pretty athletic.
If those points above are met successfully, the Aztecs could go somewhere around 7-5 and qualify for a bowl game -- a welcome holiday gift for suffering fans. If things don't work out so well, then a 4-8 semi-disaster is likely.
My bet is the offensive line will hold together at a reasonable level but the secondary will probably struggle early, particularly since the defense probably won't generate much of a pass rush against good teams. That means something more middlin', meaning the Aztecs could be 6-5 and needing to beat a Top 25 TCU squad when they come to town for the regular season finale on Nov. 24.
---
What else is there to say about the Chargers other than they have the most talent in the NFL, and might by far. There are some issues noted in previous posts, such as two new starting inside linebackers and a pair of safeties who are suspect. They might end up in some shootouts this year against quality opponents.
On offense, the wide receivers don't look improved as a group, but Vincent Jackson might be ready to blossom into stardom in his first season as a starter. We'll have to see. And, remember, Philip Rivers had a couple poor games last year. I don't see him having a sophomore jinx in 2007, but the possibility is there nonetheless. The offensive line depth is thin behind some quality starters.
Maybe the biggest problem the Chargers have is Denver being vastly improved, at least on paper. The Broncos are good enough to split with the Bolts and then who knows what they do with the rest of their schedule.
All things being equal, it's probably too much to expect another 14-2 against a tougher schedule, and facing NFL competition. I'm guessing, after going through the Chargers slate, that they'll go 12-4 or 11-5. If they get hit with injuries in the offensive line, the receiver corps beyond what they already face with Eric Parker, it could get worse. Otherwise, this is a high quality team that will almost certainly go to the playoffs. Postseason is the real season as far as Chargers fans are concerned.
---
There's a lot of talk in town of USD running the table behind superstar QB Josh Johnson, star RB JT Rogan and a solid defense. But the Toreros do have two games against teams at a higher level: Northern Colorado at home and UC Davis to end the season on the road. Davis is the squad that rather comfortably dealt the Toreros their only loss last season. So one or two Ls this season could happen, but no one else should give them a problem.
The Aztecs appear to have better personnel entering this season under coach Chuck Long than they did in a 3-9 2006. The offensive is, for the most part, healthy. QB Kevin O'Connell is a senior. The running back corps is deep, and the wide receivers could become a threat for the first time since JR Tolver and Kassim Osgood were running patterns for the red and black. The tight end position has a chance to be productive for the first time in more than a decade.
The defense has switched to a 3-4 set, a long overdue move based on recruiting realities -- the difficulty a non-BCS school has at attracting talented defensive linemen and SDSU's growing reputation as a linebacker factory. The Aztecs have usually attracted far more defensive ends than tackles, too.
The keys to the season: keeping the offensive line starters healthy and the secondary able to at least put up a fight to opposing wideouts. The line may never be able to power a strong running game, but they should be able to give O'Connell that extra split-second he's been needing to find receivers. The secondary is a total unknown, but reports claim they're pretty athletic.
If those points above are met successfully, the Aztecs could go somewhere around 7-5 and qualify for a bowl game -- a welcome holiday gift for suffering fans. If things don't work out so well, then a 4-8 semi-disaster is likely.
My bet is the offensive line will hold together at a reasonable level but the secondary will probably struggle early, particularly since the defense probably won't generate much of a pass rush against good teams. That means something more middlin', meaning the Aztecs could be 6-5 and needing to beat a Top 25 TCU squad when they come to town for the regular season finale on Nov. 24.
---
What else is there to say about the Chargers other than they have the most talent in the NFL, and might by far. There are some issues noted in previous posts, such as two new starting inside linebackers and a pair of safeties who are suspect. They might end up in some shootouts this year against quality opponents.
On offense, the wide receivers don't look improved as a group, but Vincent Jackson might be ready to blossom into stardom in his first season as a starter. We'll have to see. And, remember, Philip Rivers had a couple poor games last year. I don't see him having a sophomore jinx in 2007, but the possibility is there nonetheless. The offensive line depth is thin behind some quality starters.
Maybe the biggest problem the Chargers have is Denver being vastly improved, at least on paper. The Broncos are good enough to split with the Bolts and then who knows what they do with the rest of their schedule.
All things being equal, it's probably too much to expect another 14-2 against a tougher schedule, and facing NFL competition. I'm guessing, after going through the Chargers slate, that they'll go 12-4 or 11-5. If they get hit with injuries in the offensive line, the receiver corps beyond what they already face with Eric Parker, it could get worse. Otherwise, this is a high quality team that will almost certainly go to the playoffs. Postseason is the real season as far as Chargers fans are concerned.
---
There's a lot of talk in town of USD running the table behind superstar QB Josh Johnson, star RB JT Rogan and a solid defense. But the Toreros do have two games against teams at a higher level: Northern Colorado at home and UC Davis to end the season on the road. Davis is the squad that rather comfortably dealt the Toreros their only loss last season. So one or two Ls this season could happen, but no one else should give them a problem.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Prep Football
Where did all the big-time high school football talent go?
I bought the Street & Smith's College Football Yearbook for 2007 the other night, and among other things perused their list of the top high school football players in the nation.
San Diego County produced three entries. Three. Mind you, this is not a small list, like a first-team, second-team All-American sort of thing. No, there are probably 250 names. San Diego should have more than three.
The honored are El Camino WR Nelson Rosario, Mission Hills DL Jamaar Jarrett, and La Jolla Country Day K Travis Golla. Congratulations to each!
While prep football around the county remains very strong from top-to-bottom, this lack of big star-power continues a trend for the past few years. We're getting to the point now that we produce more basketball players.
So what's causing this? I can think of three reasons.
First, things like this go in cycles. Heck, it was weird enough for one school to produce Reggie Bush and Alex Smith at about the same time. Not to mention other schools in the same time-period putting out Scott White, Marcus Smith, Khalif Barnes, and Bobby Byrd, among others.
Second, a lot of players from the early-2000s in both football and baseball from around here didn't pan out when they moved on. I wonder if some of the major football schools that used to come in and snag some of our guys have backed off, and if the recruit ratings services are no longer sticking their necks out as far on our products. For example, we used to have a couple local kids starting for Big 10 teams. But Michigan CB Leon Hall, from Vista, was the last of a breed in 2006. I'm not even sure we have anyone on a Big 10 roster anymore. All the local players are strictly West Coast -- Pac-10, Mountain West, WAC -- these days.
Third, which a lot of people won't want to admit, but the gangs have simply won the tug-of-war with high school athletics. Look at what's become of Morse and Sweetwater, to begin with. Mt. Miguel, which draws from gang-plagued areas of Spring Valley, can't get anything together. In the North County, the sudden collapse of El Camino a few years ago is another example. In my day job, I'm seeing a number of North County kids drawn into gang violence who otherwise could have been fine athletes. It's a shame.
I bought the Street & Smith's College Football Yearbook for 2007 the other night, and among other things perused their list of the top high school football players in the nation.
San Diego County produced three entries. Three. Mind you, this is not a small list, like a first-team, second-team All-American sort of thing. No, there are probably 250 names. San Diego should have more than three.
The honored are El Camino WR Nelson Rosario, Mission Hills DL Jamaar Jarrett, and La Jolla Country Day K Travis Golla. Congratulations to each!
While prep football around the county remains very strong from top-to-bottom, this lack of big star-power continues a trend for the past few years. We're getting to the point now that we produce more basketball players.
So what's causing this? I can think of three reasons.
First, things like this go in cycles. Heck, it was weird enough for one school to produce Reggie Bush and Alex Smith at about the same time. Not to mention other schools in the same time-period putting out Scott White, Marcus Smith, Khalif Barnes, and Bobby Byrd, among others.
Second, a lot of players from the early-2000s in both football and baseball from around here didn't pan out when they moved on. I wonder if some of the major football schools that used to come in and snag some of our guys have backed off, and if the recruit ratings services are no longer sticking their necks out as far on our products. For example, we used to have a couple local kids starting for Big 10 teams. But Michigan CB Leon Hall, from Vista, was the last of a breed in 2006. I'm not even sure we have anyone on a Big 10 roster anymore. All the local players are strictly West Coast -- Pac-10, Mountain West, WAC -- these days.
Third, which a lot of people won't want to admit, but the gangs have simply won the tug-of-war with high school athletics. Look at what's become of Morse and Sweetwater, to begin with. Mt. Miguel, which draws from gang-plagued areas of Spring Valley, can't get anything together. In the North County, the sudden collapse of El Camino a few years ago is another example. In my day job, I'm seeing a number of North County kids drawn into gang violence who otherwise could have been fine athletes. It's a shame.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)