There's a time when a fight suddenly turns serious, going from taunting and shoving to outright fisticuffs. That point is where the Padres find themselves as they begin a three-game series at Colorado that will bring the first half of the 2010 major league baseball season to a close.
The Padres head to Denver after salvaging a win in DC with another Mat Latos gem. However, it has become apparent that Latos is the one stopper they have in a pitching rotation that is otherwise showing signs of fraying following poor starts by Jon Garland and Clayton Richard. Who knows if Kevin Correia's gem against Houston is the start of a trend or just his monthly quality start? Making things more worrisome is that management, for good reason, plans to limit Latos' work in the second half. Should they continue with such plans in the middle of a pennant race? Yes, they're all but obligated to for long-term reasons. But the plan is still a bit scary.
The Rockies are ready for a tumble. They have won eight of their last 10 games and took two of three from the Padres at Petco. You probably read about their amazing comebacks against the Cardinals. Those are the types of games they won during second-half runs the past few seasons. If they're getting into the same mode, watch out.
The series will begin with the Padres ahead by three games. Look at it as the last 30 seconds of a college basketball first half. Your team is leading the entire 19-plus minutes, then the opponents hit a three at the buzzer to tie it up at the break. What a letdown -- and what a pick-me-up for the other team. If the Rox sweep the Friars in Coors Field, it will be a tough All-Star break for the good guys.
The Rockies have gotten their shoves in, made their slurs against the wife and added a spit or two. They also have help lingering in the shadows in the form of the Dodgers. Time for the Padres to start fighting.
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I'm re-thinking my position on the Jake Peavy trade.
My original thought was you don't trade a true #1 starter for prospects, because the #1 starter is really all you have to build around, and there are fewer of them than there are major league teams. My opinion solidified in the ensuing months as only Richard, of the four pitchers received, showed himself to be a major league contributor. This point hasn't changed, and I see Richard only as a middle-of-the-rotation guy even now (his record is 6-4, but the Friars are just 8-9 in the games he's started).
What has changed is my opinion of Peavy. He was damaged goods when sent to Chicago, another gimpy hurler unloaded on an unsuspecting sucker by former GM Kevin Towers. At least the Padres got for him someone capable of taking the mound every five days. Peavy was DL'd this week with a detached muscle in his shoulder. I'd never wish ill will on this solid person, but better it happen to the White Sox than the Padres. He actually pitched fairly well this season despite a high ERA. He had a pair of three-game winning streaks and was throwing deep into ballgames. But I'm getting a feeling that his injury problems are chronic. Sad for him and the fans who have good memories of his triumphs in San Diego, too bad for the White Sox.
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The "Stephen Strasburg to the All-Star Game" push was a joke. The game is already tarnished with commercialism. Honestly, despite his struggles of the past week, Luke Gregerson deserves the trip to Anaheim next week over Heath Bell, but the Padres closer is a recognizable name-brand. Bell sells, so he's going and the kid no one north of Highway 76 knows about will rest his tiring arm. The Strasburg thing was all sensationalism.
In fact, I can think of three tender-young pitchers with local connections who deserved to make the team more than Strasburg. Start with Latos of the Padres, who won his 10th game Thursday and has been nearly unhittable the past two months. Then try Mike Leake (Fallbrook High), who is 6-1, 3.38 to help the Reds to the top of the NL Central and go to Trevor Cahill (Vista High), who is 8-3, 3.17 and will be in Anaheim. Since coming off the DL at the end of April, Oakland has won 10 of Cahill's 14 starts. Alas, he is slated to start Sunday and almost certainly will not actually play in the Mid-summer Classic.
What I and so many other people love about Strasburg is the solid head on his shoulders. He seemed to be bewildered about all the All-Star hype himself.
Showing posts with label jake peavy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jake peavy. Show all posts
Thursday, July 08, 2010
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
"Wholesale Changes" For Padres Cut to the Bone
An angry Padres' General Manager Kevin Towers threatened to make wholesale changes to the roster after yet another loss Monday night as several players passed by where he was talking to reporters.
I would bet that part of this was a ploy to motivate the players -- make them worry about their jobs -- or that they'd have to spend the summer in Cincinnati rather than Southern California. If not, then maybe wholesale changes are really coming.
Here's my analysis for what that means.
First, as always for a team considering roster changes, you have to list the untouchables. I count three: Jake Peavy, Chris Young and -- for sentimental reasons only -- Trevor Hoffman.
Second, the players you'd rather not lose if you don't have to are Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and maybe Shawn Estes. You don't get better by losing your young talent in the first two instances. In the latter, Estes has gone through so much in the past two years as a Padres property that it would be nice for him to get his payoff with the team that stayed with him.
Finally, the bubble, the players you'd rather not lose but very well might are Heath Bell and Khalil Greene. Sure, Bell has struggled this season after throwing a ton of innings in 2007 but he's better than anyone else in the bullpen. Teams aiming for a pennant race will love a right-handed setup man who has the ability to close when called upon. Greene's mental approach -- by far his biggest problem in my book -- could change outside Petco Park so he would be tantalizing to a ballclub in a pennant race with needs at short.
Everyone else, including minor leaguer Chase Headley, is up for grabs. My bet is that only those listed above, plus a still sometimes effective Greg Maddux and maybe, maybe, Randy Wolf, would return someone worth having.
The Padres front office really needs to keep their eyes on the ball, their long-term plan to rebuild the organization top to bottom. No sense trading minor league talent for a major leaguer to help in this lost cause of a season. I'd much rather see Towers package a couple big leaguers for a quality minor league prospect.
With the Padres being set for the future at the top of the rotation, I'd like to see Towers acquire a young pitcher with number three starter potential, and a couple of position prospects.
The playoffs were never in the cards this season, though I don't think anyone outside radio talk show host Lee Hamilton -- let's give credit where it's due -- foresaw how bad things would get. Towers and the rest of the front office were blindsided, that we know. I just hope that all the losing doesn't force any desperation moves.
I would bet that part of this was a ploy to motivate the players -- make them worry about their jobs -- or that they'd have to spend the summer in Cincinnati rather than Southern California. If not, then maybe wholesale changes are really coming.
Here's my analysis for what that means.
First, as always for a team considering roster changes, you have to list the untouchables. I count three: Jake Peavy, Chris Young and -- for sentimental reasons only -- Trevor Hoffman.
Second, the players you'd rather not lose if you don't have to are Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and maybe Shawn Estes. You don't get better by losing your young talent in the first two instances. In the latter, Estes has gone through so much in the past two years as a Padres property that it would be nice for him to get his payoff with the team that stayed with him.
Finally, the bubble, the players you'd rather not lose but very well might are Heath Bell and Khalil Greene. Sure, Bell has struggled this season after throwing a ton of innings in 2007 but he's better than anyone else in the bullpen. Teams aiming for a pennant race will love a right-handed setup man who has the ability to close when called upon. Greene's mental approach -- by far his biggest problem in my book -- could change outside Petco Park so he would be tantalizing to a ballclub in a pennant race with needs at short.
Everyone else, including minor leaguer Chase Headley, is up for grabs. My bet is that only those listed above, plus a still sometimes effective Greg Maddux and maybe, maybe, Randy Wolf, would return someone worth having.
The Padres front office really needs to keep their eyes on the ball, their long-term plan to rebuild the organization top to bottom. No sense trading minor league talent for a major leaguer to help in this lost cause of a season. I'd much rather see Towers package a couple big leaguers for a quality minor league prospect.
With the Padres being set for the future at the top of the rotation, I'd like to see Towers acquire a young pitcher with number three starter potential, and a couple of position prospects.
The playoffs were never in the cards this season, though I don't think anyone outside radio talk show host Lee Hamilton -- let's give credit where it's due -- foresaw how bad things would get. Towers and the rest of the front office were blindsided, that we know. I just hope that all the losing doesn't force any desperation moves.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Padres Head Into Interesting Off-Season
If I had no morals, I would use the "delete" function offered by the blog host and just erase my predictions for the second-half of the baseball season. While my straight-out predictions proved wrong, I was correct in what turned out to be the Padres' downfall, as the starting pitching suffered from the sudden loss of effectiveness of David Wells, occasional struggles by Jake Peavy, and injuries to Chris Young and Greg Maddux.
So, into the off-season we go, and it should be an interesting one. Here are the priorities for the front office during the fall and winter months:
1. Coach the hitters - The Padres did not lose their play-in game in Denver because of Trevor Hoffman or a blown call at home plate. They lost because of a late-inning by late-inning failure to cash in on opportunities as every hitter but Brian Giles swung for the fences. Just putting the ball in play could have pushed a run across late in the game and Hoffman could have extinguished the Rockies while they were, too, shooting for home runs. Instead, the Rox clued in and did what the Padres should have -- took pitches consistently to the opposite field in the final inning of play.
If it looks like I'm picking on one game, I'm actually just using it as an example. The last home game I went to, a similar extra-inning loss to Colorado on the Friday night of the final series at Petco Park, saw similar bat work by the Padres. You can't have a team that only scores via the home run, but that's what the Friars were trying to do in a lot of games.
2. Sign Mike Cameron - Okay, I'm no big fan of his. But Brady Clark showed just how important center field defense is in large parks like Coors Field and Petco. Cameron struck out a horrifying amount of times, like 160, which is Bobby Bonds territory. But he stabilizes the outfield defense and injects much-needed speed into the lineup. Sign him and bat him seventh.
The trouble is that there is one guy who was smiling as he watched Clark struggle Monday night. That's Cameron's agent. Guarantee they're not coming off their asking price too quickly now when they negotiate with the Padres.
3. Fill the holes - Assuming that Cameron re-signs, then Kevin Towers has to fill left field, second base, and two starting pitching spots. Scott Hairston provided late lightning on four occasions this season, but he's not a consistent hitter and not a good enough defender to compete for a fulltime job, which is why Arizona was willing to let him go. He's a 2007 version of Jim Leyritz, the 1998 wonder who fell apart the next season. Keep Hairston as what he is, a good substitute. Maybe good enough to start in left if there's reason to think Milton Bradley will be ready to play by May.
Solutions are more likely to come from trades than the free agent market. The only free agents who fit Padres needs and are, IMHO, worth signing, are infielder Mark Loretta, pitcher Matt Clement and LF Adam Dunn. All have good and bad points. Loretta hit .287 and had 460 at bats for the Astros while only striking out 41 times, but had no power at all and will turn 37 next season. Clement has been a solid starting pitcher since leaving San Diego, but he's well into his 30s and did not pitch for the Red Sox this year because of an injury that limited him to just 12 appeances in 2006. Dunn had perhaps his best season overall with a his highest batting average (.264) since 2004, 40 home runs for the third year in a row and his fewest strikeouts over a full season in his career -- although that was still 165 and the Reds hold a team option for him.
So Towers' options are limited in free agency. Trades are another matter. As soon as you'd think other general managers would be leery of dealing with the man, someone shows up believing he can snooker him. Other teams, wary of how the relief-shy Mets collapsed, will be after bullpen talent, and the Padres have some short-inning arms to spare.
4. Evaluate the young pitchers - It's pitch or cut bait with young pitchers Tim Stauffer, Justin Germano, Clay Hensley and Mike Thompson. The brass has to decide once and for all whether they will make it as fulltime major league starters.
5. Closer reality - Trevor Hoffman is NOT DONE. However, it is becoming clear that Heath Bell, who many teammates and observers believe should be the team MVP, is the best pitcher in the bullpen. Hoffman has made adjustments before and will during this offseason, too. He will come out next spring and be an effective closer for a while. But as Hoffman pitches his first season north of 40 years old in 2008, he's going to need Bell to save some games for him, not the other way around. The sooner Bud Black is willing to be flexible in how he sets up his bullpen -- game by game or week by week or just going with the hot hand -- the better chance the Padres will have at winning ball games.
Overall, it was a pretty interesting and entertaining season. The Padres finished with a better record and were closer to the playoffs than a lot of people expected. They had their share of bad breaks and injuries but were able to plug on via spit and glue. They came up with a third baseman of the future in Kevin Kouzmanoff. They won an awful lot of games in the late innings. They played in October when most other major league teams did not. There are a lot of positives. But they can also stand improvement.
---
NOTES: Sorry, I haven't posted in a while. Kind of the way it is ... I'd have written by now about the Chargers 1-3 start if I could figure it out. There seems to be something different every week, which leads me to think that there's some general weakness all over, from the general manager to the coaches to Philip Rivers to the offensive line, to the defensive line not tying up lineman, the linebackers being out of position and the secondary being just plain awful ... It won't show up in the stats, but the plays by Rivers that killed the Bolts chances against Kansas City were consecutive goal line situations late in the game in which Vincent Jackson was open in the back of the end zone and LaDainian Tomlinson was open in the flat and he ended up not throwing to either of them. The next play, Tomlinson was again open in the flat, and again Rivers couldn't even let the pass loose ... San Diego State might have the worst defense in the history of the school, and they had some pretty bad defenses in the early 90s. The secondary is patchwork, the linebackers are young and injured and the defensive line is not strong enough to stop a Pop Warner offense ... Chuck Long is building through young players, which takes time, but Aztecs fans have heard that song-and-dance repeatedly over the years, with payoffs only coming once per decade.
So, into the off-season we go, and it should be an interesting one. Here are the priorities for the front office during the fall and winter months:
1. Coach the hitters - The Padres did not lose their play-in game in Denver because of Trevor Hoffman or a blown call at home plate. They lost because of a late-inning by late-inning failure to cash in on opportunities as every hitter but Brian Giles swung for the fences. Just putting the ball in play could have pushed a run across late in the game and Hoffman could have extinguished the Rockies while they were, too, shooting for home runs. Instead, the Rox clued in and did what the Padres should have -- took pitches consistently to the opposite field in the final inning of play.
If it looks like I'm picking on one game, I'm actually just using it as an example. The last home game I went to, a similar extra-inning loss to Colorado on the Friday night of the final series at Petco Park, saw similar bat work by the Padres. You can't have a team that only scores via the home run, but that's what the Friars were trying to do in a lot of games.
2. Sign Mike Cameron - Okay, I'm no big fan of his. But Brady Clark showed just how important center field defense is in large parks like Coors Field and Petco. Cameron struck out a horrifying amount of times, like 160, which is Bobby Bonds territory. But he stabilizes the outfield defense and injects much-needed speed into the lineup. Sign him and bat him seventh.
The trouble is that there is one guy who was smiling as he watched Clark struggle Monday night. That's Cameron's agent. Guarantee they're not coming off their asking price too quickly now when they negotiate with the Padres.
3. Fill the holes - Assuming that Cameron re-signs, then Kevin Towers has to fill left field, second base, and two starting pitching spots. Scott Hairston provided late lightning on four occasions this season, but he's not a consistent hitter and not a good enough defender to compete for a fulltime job, which is why Arizona was willing to let him go. He's a 2007 version of Jim Leyritz, the 1998 wonder who fell apart the next season. Keep Hairston as what he is, a good substitute. Maybe good enough to start in left if there's reason to think Milton Bradley will be ready to play by May.
Solutions are more likely to come from trades than the free agent market. The only free agents who fit Padres needs and are, IMHO, worth signing, are infielder Mark Loretta, pitcher Matt Clement and LF Adam Dunn. All have good and bad points. Loretta hit .287 and had 460 at bats for the Astros while only striking out 41 times, but had no power at all and will turn 37 next season. Clement has been a solid starting pitcher since leaving San Diego, but he's well into his 30s and did not pitch for the Red Sox this year because of an injury that limited him to just 12 appeances in 2006. Dunn had perhaps his best season overall with a his highest batting average (.264) since 2004, 40 home runs for the third year in a row and his fewest strikeouts over a full season in his career -- although that was still 165 and the Reds hold a team option for him.
So Towers' options are limited in free agency. Trades are another matter. As soon as you'd think other general managers would be leery of dealing with the man, someone shows up believing he can snooker him. Other teams, wary of how the relief-shy Mets collapsed, will be after bullpen talent, and the Padres have some short-inning arms to spare.
4. Evaluate the young pitchers - It's pitch or cut bait with young pitchers Tim Stauffer, Justin Germano, Clay Hensley and Mike Thompson. The brass has to decide once and for all whether they will make it as fulltime major league starters.
5. Closer reality - Trevor Hoffman is NOT DONE. However, it is becoming clear that Heath Bell, who many teammates and observers believe should be the team MVP, is the best pitcher in the bullpen. Hoffman has made adjustments before and will during this offseason, too. He will come out next spring and be an effective closer for a while. But as Hoffman pitches his first season north of 40 years old in 2008, he's going to need Bell to save some games for him, not the other way around. The sooner Bud Black is willing to be flexible in how he sets up his bullpen -- game by game or week by week or just going with the hot hand -- the better chance the Padres will have at winning ball games.
Overall, it was a pretty interesting and entertaining season. The Padres finished with a better record and were closer to the playoffs than a lot of people expected. They had their share of bad breaks and injuries but were able to plug on via spit and glue. They came up with a third baseman of the future in Kevin Kouzmanoff. They won an awful lot of games in the late innings. They played in October when most other major league teams did not. There are a lot of positives. But they can also stand improvement.
---
NOTES: Sorry, I haven't posted in a while. Kind of the way it is ... I'd have written by now about the Chargers 1-3 start if I could figure it out. There seems to be something different every week, which leads me to think that there's some general weakness all over, from the general manager to the coaches to Philip Rivers to the offensive line, to the defensive line not tying up lineman, the linebackers being out of position and the secondary being just plain awful ... It won't show up in the stats, but the plays by Rivers that killed the Bolts chances against Kansas City were consecutive goal line situations late in the game in which Vincent Jackson was open in the back of the end zone and LaDainian Tomlinson was open in the flat and he ended up not throwing to either of them. The next play, Tomlinson was again open in the flat, and again Rivers couldn't even let the pass loose ... San Diego State might have the worst defense in the history of the school, and they had some pretty bad defenses in the early 90s. The secondary is patchwork, the linebackers are young and injured and the defensive line is not strong enough to stop a Pop Warner offense ... Chuck Long is building through young players, which takes time, but Aztecs fans have heard that song-and-dance repeatedly over the years, with payoffs only coming once per decade.
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