Thursday, April 14, 2011

Kawhi Leaves, Worry About Padres is Legit

The announcement that Kawhi Leonard is leaving San Diego State is no shock, that he plans to hire an agent next week is a bit of a surprise, as it closes off all chances that he can remain an Aztec.

Coach Steve Fisher said all the research places Leonard comfortably within the first round of the NBA draft, so perhaps it is a moot point. He has an NBA game and, even with his mid-range offensive skills in need of improvement, the pros will covet his rebounding and defense.

SDSU's mediocre performance in the NCAA Tournament did not cause prized recruits to swarm to the Mesa, but placing an underclassman in the first round of the NBA draft might turn some heads in a prized 2012 high school class. That's where Leonard's departure might pay off.

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Nick Canepa of the Union-Tribune is exactly right that it's not too early to be concerned about the lack of hitting in the first couple of weeks by the Padres. It probably doesn't matter much, because no team starts making serious changes until it becomes summer, but you can start making some judgments about this team.

1. It is true that there are no easy outs in the lineup, but there aren't any superstars, either. The problem is that every opponent, especially in Petco Park, goes up against the Padres knowing they have to keep scoring down. So the pitchers really bear down against the Friars, who have been unable to respond in kind.

2. Channel 4's Bob Scanlan, whose "Scanalysis" is excellent, made one point Wednesday evening I think is incorrect: that you know Ryan Ludwick and Brad Hawpe won't go all season hitting under .200 because they've always hit in the past. While that is probably true in the literal sense, can you really say they'll hit much above .200 with power? Not really. Ludwick had two good years but is coming off a rotten 2010. This season is just a continuation of his struggles, going 0-for-14 this season with runners in scoring position. He looks so bad at the plate that he might not get picked up by another team when the Padres release him this summer. Hawpe is also coming off a rough season last year. The difference in whether they can do it again because they always do is that both were beat up physically in 2010.

3. Will Venable, Chris Denorfia and offseason pickup Jorge Cantu are all scuffling, while Chase Headley's batting has been mediocre.

So what to do? Here's some suggestions:

1. I couldn't have disagreed more at the time with GM Jed Hoyer's re-signing of Ludwick and think the earlier the Padres cut ties with him, the better. He is not going to improve too much. Give Eric Patterson a shot in left and call up either Cedric Hunter or Aaron Cunningham from Tucson.

2. There are no serious options at first base. Kyle Blanks probably needs a couple of months in the minors, although he's preparing to play again. Anthony Rizzo is in his first year at AAA. It looks like you have to sink or swim with Hawpe until at least the All-Star break.

There really are no other options. I think Venable will come around, but frankly, the front office is biding its time until Rizzo and the other minor leaguers are ready to contribute, and that won't be until mid-2012 at the earliest.

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If you need something to get you through a long summer, here are two thoughts.

1. GAB is still great to watch even if there aren't many leads to protect.

2. SDSU preseason football practice begins in less than four months.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Fallout From USD Point-Shaving Will Be Long and Difficult

There is hardly anyone associated with the University of San Diego who wouldn't immediately trade their landmark NCAA Tournament upset of UConn a few years ago in exchange for Monday not happening. Or, more specifically, for former G Brandon Johnson having never become involved with alleged marijuana traffickers who the FBI accuses of getting him to shave points -- and attempt to persuade members of this year's team to do the same.

Men's basketball has been an absolute nightmare since the UConn win had coach Bill Grier and the Toreros momentarily on top of the world of college hoops. The message of the federal indictment released Monday is that the nightmare will not end soon, because the consequences could be severe.

The problem is that there are a lot of unanswered questions:

1. The indictment suggests that investigators have spoken to someone connected to the program in order to obtain the last couple of listed overt acts against Johnson -- that's my interpretation. Yet, the school issued a statement saying it only learned of the problem Monday morning. So did a player talk to the FBI and not notify his coach? Did the player talk to Grier, who in turn did not talk to athletic director Ky Snyder? Did Snyder know and not inform school President Mary Lyon, who issued the statement? Was Lyon not forthcoming?

2. The indictment says Johnson spoke to someone on Feb. 23 about influencing the result of a game. The next night, USD inexplicably upset St. Mary's. Did the Toreros come out aggressively that night in an emphatic "no!" to him, or did he find new clients on the other bench? Two nights later, USD lost 68-31 in one of the worst beatdowns in school history. Coincidence, or will the feds amend their complaint with other names at an upcoming court hearing?

3. Do you hold Grier responsible? Everything that happens in the men's basketball program occurs under his watch, whether he knows about it or not. Grier probably had no idea of what was taking place, but is he responsible for an atmosphere in which this horrible stain on the national reputation was able to happen? Even if the answer is no, is it the last straw based on how bad the program is right now?

4. Do you hold Snyder accountable? Under his watch, the Toreros athletic program has gone into a free fall. No one expected the high times experienced by football to continue once former coach Jim Harbaugh departed for Stanford, but the baseball team is off to its worst start in memory, the soccer programs are not doing much and the women's hoops team is middlin' at best. Now this.

A lot of good names, good people, are being dragged through the mud right now because of this episode. Believe me, before this is over, there are going to be serious people associated with the school who will question whether membership in Division I athletics is worth it. That could be the ultimate fallout.

Let's take this a step further. Let's say you're an official at UC San Diego, currently with athletics in Division II and, in recent months, frothing at the idea of moving up to Division I. Does this give you pause?

A lot of questions remain. And to think this might never have been discovered if the other defendants didn't allegedly dabble in marijuana trafficking.

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Notes From Opening Day, Disconnect on Fisher

If the Padres can get more starts from P Aaron Harang like today's 3-1 victory over the Giants in the home opener, the rotation suddenly will look a whole heck of a lot better -- and raise my confidence in this squad's ability to compete in the National League West. As pointed out in a previous post, the lineup is not far behind the competition, so if the five starters can make things work, this season might look more like 2010 after all...Key point in the win came in the top of the sixth inning after Harang struck out Aubrey Huff with a nasty breaking ball for the second out. Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval followed with singles, and a southpaw started warming up in the Padres pen. Harang faced Pat Burrell, the Giants' Mr. Clutch from last year -- and with left-handed rookie 1B Brandon Belt on deck and him due up second in the bottom of the inning -- you knew this was Harang's last batter, no matter what. He went to a 3-2 count, but struck out Burrell swinging as the fans roared in approval. That allowed the Padres to then go with GAP in the 7th-8th-9th to seal the win.

Difference between the Padres and a defending World Series champion -- SS Miguel Tejada was brought to San Diego to bat third last summer. Now he's in San Francisco, batting eighth. He's already committed a number of miscues in the field of the sort he made occasionally last season. My bet is unless he cleans up his act real fast, his time with the Giants will be short-lived...Confirmation that we were indeed watching the Padres -- the top four batters in the lineup ended the game with batting averages under .200. The next two were at .214 and .222. Then another sub-Mendoza line hitter. Only C Nick Hundley is swinging the bat well with a 3-for-4 performance in the home opener.

Nice opening ceremony emceed by Dick Enberg, himself an icon, and Trevor Hoffman jogging in from the bullpen with "Hell's Bells" playing on the loudspeaker...Attention scoreboard, the aircraft in the flyover were fighter jets, not helicopters...The acquisition of Cameron Maybin is growing on me. He runs down anything hit to center field. Now if they can just hide his bat low in the order and get production elsewhere in the lineup.

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We journalists think we know everything, but clearly we don't. Here's a local sports example of a disconnect between the media and the real world. Of the five major national Coach of the Year awards in college basketball, San Diego State's Steve Fisher won three. Those came from two organizations of his colleagues and a private athletic club of the sort that awards the Heisman Trophy. The two other awards are from writers, and they chose Mike Brey of Notre Dame. Brey had a fine year, but if you don't vote for Fisher, you pick Dave Rose of BYU. Or Shaka Smart of Virginia Commonwealth. Or Steve Lavin of St. John's. Then maybe you think of Brey.

I used to blame the BCS and the six so-called power conferences for the current state of collegiate athletics. Now I'm starting to blame my sports media colleagues for perpetuating such stereotypical and obsolete terms like "mid-major."

Sunday, April 03, 2011

Padres Lineup Not Far off NL West Talent Level

So, I remain skeptical of the Padres ability to win baseball games over the long haul of the 2011 season, mainly because of a shaky starting rotation and a powerless lineup. Opponents will adjust to small ball, particularly within the division.

That said, the lineup is hardly overwhelmed by National League West opponents. Sure, we know what's missing in departed 1B Adrian Gonzalez, so we can look at the Friars on the field and wonder where the home runs are going to come from. But another way to judge them is by stacking them up against the other clubs.

When you compare the Padres position-by-position with their NL West counterparts, you only get clear advantages by Colorado SS Troy Tulowitzki and LF Carlos Gonzalez over Jason Bartlett and Ryan Ludwick; Los Angeles 1B James Loney, CF Matt Kemp and RF Andre Ethier over Brad Hawpe, Cameron Maybin and Will Venable; and San Francisco C Buster Posey over Nick Hundley.

The Padres have no clear advantages among position players over their counterparts, but the paragraph above shows clearly that they're not completely outclassed, either.

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A lot of people are lamenting UConn making the NCAA Tournament championship game and how close San Diego State came to knocking them off. Fact is, the Huskies are making the plays they need to win, and the Aztecs could not raise their game another notch. While it doesn't show woulda-coulda-shoulda, it is a reminder of just how good this SDSU basketball team really was.

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SDSU and USD are a combined 15-36 in baseball so far this season.

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Nice to see a local rowing team make the final of the Copley Cup of the San Diego Crew Classic, as UCSD finished fifth. Cal won its third straight title, while the USC women took the Jessop-Whittier Cup.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

2010 A Distant Memory as Padres Season Looms

Live by the pitch, die by the pitch. This turn on a phrase is all about the Padres in 2011 when the team will be hard-pressed to match last year's success on the mound or the win column.

Moves by the Padres in the past week or so reveal some desperation in the front office regarding a pitching staff that doesn't come close to what they had last season. The woes are many: Mat Latos is starting the season on the disabled list, Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley didn't hit any kind of stride during spring training and no one knows how long Aaron Harang is going to last. When the Friars need a fifth starter, do they pull Corey Luebke out of the bullpen or recall Wade LeBlanc from AAA? The only rock appears to be Tim Stauffer, who missed most of last season after an appendectomy.

Even the mighty bullpen is not immune from questions behind GAB. Samuel Deduno and Pat Neshek were off the radar when spring training started. Can these guys, along with Ernesto Frieri, stop the bleeding in the fourth and fifth innings of bad starts to get the ball to GAB with a chance to win? The formula worked last year but appears doubtful in 2011.

The Padres are no 100-loss team, but nothing would be surprising this year. But they could struggle to reach 75 wins. There is just no way that their pitching staff can match up with the Giants or Dodgers, whose rotations would be the best in the league in a normal year (see the Phillies, this is no ordinary year).

The Padres will be much improved defensively everywhere but first base, and the bench will be deeper except at catcher. But at the plate, there is no way they'll be significantly better than last year. It is true the lineup will have more difficult outs top to bottom, but with Adrian Gonzalez gone, there will be less power than in 2010. That's kind of like the weak skinny kid went on a diet instead of hitting the weight room. You can't score in this division by stringing a bunch of singles together, because you simply won't be stringing a bunch of singles together. You need a big bop in there someplace, and to say you'll get consistent power from Brad Hawpe, Chase Headley or Ryan Ludwick is wishful thinking.

Last March, I predicted the Padres would be in the NL West race well into September and they were. This March, the prediction is that they'll remain in the race -- until June. This is a team held together by spit and glue, and I the front office knows it.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Can SDSU Maintain the Excitement?

We're about to find out what sort of a bridge builder San Diego State athletic director Jim Sterk is. Can he take the warm feelings San Diegans have for his hoops team and carry them across four and a half months to football season?

That's a big trick. I think the success of the football program played a role in how quickly the community came together for basketball. A sellout for Occidental on New Year's Eve was weird, but it come just eight days after the Aztecs 35-14 defeat of Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. The good feelings translated because the seasons overlapped. That doesn't work when hoops ends. There is a long time span before people start thinking football again and whether SDSU is even in the equation is questionable.

So what does Sterk do? An occasional print advertisement in the newspaper won't cut it. I'm sure he can trot the basketball players out once or twice before Padres games. He'll have an advantage in case the NFL and its players continue their labor strife -- but I would not count on it. There will be some renewal of interest in June if Kawhi Leonard goes to the NBA draft, but the after-taste will be that we lost him.

You can't live off the basketball afterglow forever. The marketing effort is going to need to convert fan interest to football, which means Ronnie Hillman and Ryan Lindley and Rocky Long and a blitzing, gambling defense. It means home games with Boise State and TCU and a renewal of the rivalry with Fresno State. I'm no marketing expert, but those are some building blocks.

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Leonard's future plans amount to a win-win situation for the SDSU basketball team. Everyone is steeling themselves against losing the rebounding dynamo to the NBA and it could happen, but the fact is the program will benefit from whichever decision he makes.

The general consensus is that he will enter his name for draft eligibility and go through the evaluation process. Once that is completed, he and head coach Steve Fisher will sit down for a heart-to-heart, and Leonard will then complete the decision-making with his mother. That all makes perfect sense.

1. Leonard stays - A program that is now guard-heavy clearly is better with his inside play, incentive to prove himself in the NCAA Tournament and possible season-long media attention. He will have more time to work on his ball-handling and jumper, and avoid possible labor issues in the NBA. With Leonard in the fold, SDSU will spend the season in the Top 25 again and return to the Big Dance.

2. Leonard leaves - For all the good players who have come through the program under Fisher, none have made it in the NBA. Leonard's departure would be because he is a certain first-round draft choice, breaking a major barrier that opposing coaches are certainly using against SDSU in the recruiting wars. There will be a lot of publicity about him leading up to June, and even his announcement in April that he's putting his name in could entice a freshman big man to come to State. Finally, if Leonard stays, it will be because he needs to improve on his perimeter game, and Fisher will need him to perform in the paint. If he is not there, tension will be avoided.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Aztecs Maxed Out in Brilliant Season

In the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, you run into three kinds of teams:

1. The very good teams that are too talented to lose in the first two rounds,

2. The Cinderella wannabees who spring an upset over a big conference stiff in one game and beat a smaller league school they match up well with in other (think Richmond),

3. Those who suddenly get hot, possibly riding a great player (see UConn and Walker, Kemba).

San Diego State was in the first category and unfortunately had to play a school in the third and, as I posted Thursday, you can't predict when that will happen.

Simply said, it was apparent during the tournament that SDSU came in playing at a high level, but was unable to push the envelope any farther. You have to do that in order to go go any deeper than they did. There is no shame in that, it happened to Duke a couple of hours later on the same floor. But they struggled for a half-plus against Northern Colorado and couldn't put away injury-riddled Temple until the end of the second overtime.

San Diego State's acclaimed star, Kawhi Leonard, was unable to put the Aztecs on his back and carry them like Walker did for the Huskies or Derrick Williams has for Arizona. He disappeared against the Owls until the end and got himself in a heap of trouble vs the Huskies. In true Leonard form, however, he made a number of big plays down the stretch before UConn salted away the game.

Basketball seasons last a long time for college kids, two months longer than football, and most teams have ups and downs over the course of a campaign. SDSU had only ups. The only hint of a down was that weird tournament in Las Vegas when they had to play in a converted horse barn, but even then they escaped with a couple of victories. Their season was an amazing accomplishment, and the way this team brought the community together was tremendous. We'll all remember this brilliant season that could launch the basketball program to even greater heights.

I'll leave you with two thoughts, one to ponder and one to give you chills:

-- Maybe the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship win over BYU was a pyrrhic victory. Imagine a very close loss to the Cougars, who get the No. 2 seed in the West while the Aztecs take the No. 3 seed in the Southwest Regional. Do you think SDSU is still standing today? I don't see Florida as a buzzsaw like UConn.

-- One day, maybe in a couple of years, DJ Gay and Billy White are going to return to Viejas Arena to take in a game. Can you imagine the reception when the PA announcer calls out "D-J-Gay!" with all the fans joining in or Billllllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee White!" We're going to miss that sort of excitement as much as anything. I already miss them, along with Malcolm Thomas, and it's only one night later.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Bittersweet 16 for SDSU

You can't choose your exit when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. It just happens that at some point, you run into a better team or a buzzsaw. In the Sweet 16 in Anaheim, San Diego State ran into a little bit of both in a UConn squad that put together two runs to end the Aztecs' brilliant season 74-67. SDSU maybe deserved a better fate, a longer stay, but they weren't allowed to pick when they'd meet up such an opponent.

I will say that losing to a hot UConn team was far better than what a setback to Temple would have been like. Not only would that have been a round earlier, but also a throw-away. In this contest, UConn made the plays that win games and have a marvelous talent in G Kemba Walker. That said, Walker is no man. I won't say that foul by Jamaal Franklin sparked UConn's final run, but Walker took a flop when they collided heading into a timeout. Doing it in a game, like trying to take a charge, is one thing. Doing it while walking to your bench is something else. For the referee to call it was pathetic. Franklin should have known better than to ever give an official a chance to make a call. Even with that, the game was close at the end and the Huskies made the winning plays -- the Aztecs did not.

So it's over, and I will terribly miss DJ Gay. I suspect the Aztecs will be physically more talented at the point next season with LaBradford Franklin and Xavier Thames, but the void of experience, leadership and killer instinct will be hard to fill. I will miss Malcolm Thomas' shot-blocking and sunny personality but not his hook shot. I will miss Billy White's ability to make us all stand up and shout "Wow!" and Viejas Arena announcer Brian Main's call of his name, but not his disappearing act.

We will probably miss Kawhi Leonard's strength but his offensive game really could stand another year of honing in college. I hope to see Brian Carlwell for one more season, but leaving anything in the hands of the NCAA is dangerous, so I'll expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised if his return for an extra season is approved.

The future, however, is bright. The backcourt of Franklin, Thames, Chase Tapley and James Rahon will be the best in the Mountain West Conference, and it will be fun to see what Jamaal Franklin can do when given more playing time. Maybe Leonard and/or Carlwell are back to help him out. There are front-court recruits coming in to help who are well-regarded.

This is by no means a one-and-done year for great basketball at SDSU. More are ahead. First, let's step back and take a deep breath and reflect on just how fun this one was. It wasn't magical, there was nothing mystical about it at all. It was just good, really, really good.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Aztecs Scenarios Add Up to Rout

My only prediction for the biggest men's basketball game in San Diego State's history in the Sweet 16 Thursday night vs UConn is that it will be a rout.

Here are the scenarios:

-- SDSU wins big. More likely than the distasteful alternative. If the Aztecs get up on UConn in the second half, the young Huskies, who might start three freshmen, could fold quickly. The Aztecs will have to hit their shots, especially all those 3- and 5-footers they clanged in Tucson, but if they do it will combine with their strong rebounding and ferocious defense to make things very tough on their opponents. G Kemba Walker will have to face defense by DJ Gay, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard, putting a lot of pressure on the other Huskies to score. I don't think they'll have seen a defense that can throw that many tough guys on him. I don't think the SDSU home court advantage will mean much to them, but it won't help, either. It will work better in the alternative, picking the Aztecs up if the Huskies get on a run.

-- SDSU loses big. Less likely, and clearly the scenario we don't want to come true. Those shots that weren't going in the basket last weekend aren't falling in this game, either, and maybe even the three-pointers go away. The Aztecs can't afford one of those 0-for-18 shooting nights from behind the arc. Talk about the experience State has from guarding Jimmer three times, you have to admit the guy burned them in two. You hear a lot of how BYU beat SDSU twice by 13 points, but those games were close until the last few minutes. When time gets short and it becomes apparent that the dream is over, the air will escape from SDSU's balloon like a jet -- it's just human nature. It happened in both regular season losses. A respectable score could get out of hand in garbage time.

All of which means it will come down to a final shot, or triple-overtime.

The two things I don't want to see:

1. A repeat of what nearly happened against Temple, when the Aztecs almost threw the game away against a tired, over-matched opponent. SDSU should have won that game comfortably. Getting beat is one thing, throwing it away would end a wonderful season on a sour note.

2. Too many of those Round of 32 games came down to officiating in the final seconds, whether the calls were correct or not. It'd be shame if SDSU was sent home based on what some guy in a striped shirt decided. It would also be too bad if the Aztecs win on a controversial call, because you know all the East Coast honks will say SDSU didn't really deserve to win.

Now that the pressure of making the Sweet 16 is off, let's hope the Aztecs come in fast and loose. If they hit some shots early, this could be a great night.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

Nervous Aztecs Get Where They Needed

When I was in high school, the best team one year was Kentucky, led by future NBA star Rick Roby and Jack "Goose" Givens, who returned from an injury to lead the Wildcats to the national championship game. All season long, it was all about Kentucky and how much better they were than anyone else. Indeed, they won that final handily over Duke, but there was little celebration afterward. The Wildcats sighed with relief because they had only done what everyone expected them to do.

Fast-forward to Saturday, and a very nervous San Diego State basketball team managed to do what everyone expected them to do, which was make the Sweet 16. Those were the expectations -- win the first two games of the NCAA Tournament and take your chances from there. Everything from here on out is gravy. But you have to get there first, and practically from the opening tip Thursday the Aztecs played with the kind of jitters that cause you to miss shots from close-in. Both games, they shot well from the three-point line, but were horrible in the paint. Weird, and I think it was nerves.

From now on, it's all joy, I hope. The freedom should allow them to play freer and easier and shoot better. They should have beaten Northern Colorado by 30 and Temple by 15 or more, but a lot of missed inside shots and some strange turnovers made the game vs. the Owls close. Yeah, but the bottom line is they made it to Anaheim. The pressure is off now.

Think having three senior starters is important now? Oh, yeah. They've been there, done that. We can harp on it all season long, and this is when the payoff comes...DJ Gay's defense against larger Owl G Juan Fernandez was spectacular...The thing about Kawhi Leonard is that he's there to produce at winning time, from high school to last year's MWC final against UNLV to overtime against Temple...Next up is UConn and G Kemba Walker. All we need is a quicker Jimmer who plays defense and has a better supporting cast.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Typical Aztec Win in Tourney Opener

For those unfamiliar with San Diego State basketball, that 68-50 win over Northern Colorado in the NCAA Tournament Thursday was vintage for this season. Close and kind of ugly offensively for a half, a rout in the second half while the opponent struggles to reach 50.

The formula is not pretty, but it has been effective for many of SDSU's 33 wins so far this season. While the first half shooting performance had many fans gnashing their teeth -- I was yelling some pretty ugly things at my television -- we've seen it before and the Aztecs have mostly survived.

The question is whether they thrive the next time out. Here's a look at the history this season of what happened the next game out after a sub-par shooting performance.

On Dec. 13, the Aztecs survived an 0-for-18 performance from behind the three-point arc, and 34 percent overall shooting game to down Cal Poly 51-45. The next game, they scorched the nets to the tune of 8-for-13 on threes in the first half in a 90-64 rout of UC Santa Barbara.

On Dec. 22, they held off IUPUI for the second time and made just 3-of-20 threes. The next game out they scored 93 vs Occidental on New Year's Eve.

It goes on. They opened the Mountain West Conference season clanging threes but shooting well overall at TCU and did a bit better at Utah. They followed the ugly boxing match vs UNLV by making most of their bombs at New Mexico, including seven by DJ Gay.

Past performance does not guarantee future success, but the trend looks good. I also feel much better about Saturday's match-up with Temple than I did before seeing them hang on against Penn State. We all knew that one bad shooting game at the wrong time could abort a deep tournament run. Let's just hope they got that one out of their system.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Conference Games Have Aztecs Prepared

New Mexico defeated UTEP by 12 points Tuesday night in the first round of the NIT, and that is important. That the Lobos did so without injured G Dairese Gary makes the victory even more impressive.

If you have any doubt about where San Diego State and the Mountain West Conference stand up nationally in college basketball, that score tells you a lot. The Aztecs swept the Lobos this year, easily. UNM finished fifth in the MWC while the Miners were just a game out of first in Conference USA -- and went to the final game of the C-USA Tournament. They're pretty good, and the Lobos smoked them.

Here's what the result tells me. San Diego State is ready to compete with anyone, whether it be Northern Colorado on Thursday, or some combination in the future of Temple, Penn State, Cincinnati, UConn or Duke. The Aztecs stack up. That doesn't mean they will win, that's why they call it "March Madness."

While not overlooking the Bears on Thursday, I think the Aztecs are more likely to curly fry them than lose -- probably a typical SDSU close game at halftime with a second-half blowout led by defense. The game that scares me is Saturday, against the Temple/Penn State winner. That contest will be the difference between whether this team has a season considered to be successful or not. Right or wrong, San Diegans have the Sweet 16 as the destination for this club and anything less will be a disappointment. We could, and probably will, get a bit more, but anything beyond the Sweet 16 will be gravy.

So how does SDSU get to the Final Four? The key is for the Aztecs to not have an off-game from the perimeter, something you probably already know. They can shoot, but are prone to the occasional bad game. That can't happen or they will make an early exit. Otherwise, things could break their way. Both Temple and Penn State are guard oriented, and SDSU guards the three-point line well and can dominate in the paint. I'm less sold on UConn having nothing left after their Big East tourney run, but it could happen, if not this week, then by next. They could find themselves against Cincinnati next week just as easily as against the Huskies. In the regional final, they could face talented but inconsistent Texas instead of Duke, but the Aztecs might be one of the few teams that can match up physically with the Blue Devils. From there, you take your chances. That's pretty much what March Madness is all about.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Seniors Gather in Tucson for Beginning of the End

It will be a gathering of seniors in Tucson Thursday for the first full round of the NCAA Tournament's West Regional, including No. 2 seed San Diego State. The Aztecs will face Northern Colorado at 1:40 p.m. before taking on the winner of Temple and Penn State.

Three of the four are senior-oriented, taking away what has been SDSU's biggest advantage all year -- that experience of a roster full of guys who have been there, done that and won't get flustered. They survived the unexpectedly hard games (USF and Colorado State), the ones they didn't care about (IUPUI twice) and the physically grinding battles they knew were coming (UNLV thrice). Even in Saturday's 72-54 rout of BYU that gained them the MWC Tournament crown, they turned away a late Cougars rally that might have caused younger teams to fold.

UNC starts four seniors, including G Devon Beitzel, the Bears' best player. Penn State starts four seniors, including G Talor Battle, the Lions' best player. Temple might start only two seniors, but one, F Scootie Randall, has been sidelined recently with an injury and is probably the Owls best chance to match-up with the Aztecs front line.

SDSU received the seed and region they deserved and I don't see that any of the other No. 2s -- North Carolina, Notre Dame and Florida -- got paths to the Sweet 16 any tougher or easier than the Aztecs. To show you what a loss to BYU would have meant, the Cougars were seeded third and placed in Denver against a Wofford team that should not be taken lightly. That's not a bad game to consider for an upset pick when you fill out your bracket. They then have to face the winner of St. John's-Gonzaga. BYU's advantage will be proximity and altitude, which need no further explanation.

UNLV, the third Mountain West team in the bracket, gets a chance to knock off top-seeded Kansas for the second time in a row, as long as they can defeat inconsistent Illinois. Last year, the Rebels played poorly and fell to Northern Iowa, leaving the Panthers to take out KU. The way the Rebels are playing right now, they just might join SDSU in the Sweet 16.

That means the Aztecs have to uphold their end of the bargain and get there, too. With their senior advantage neutralized, the Aztecs will have to turn to their second strong point -- length. These teams just haven't gone up against many opponents who can dish out State's defensive disruption. That's something to hang our hats on, until the games get going Thursday.

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I won't share predictions. My brackets are always shredded by late-morning on Friday...How USC got in the tournament and UCLA was given a No. 7 seed are beyond me...Of all those pretty good teams SDSU played this year in lieu of the scared elites, only UCSB and Gonzaga made the field...If my count is right, only seven schools from non-BCS conferences received at-large bids. Two were from the MWC. I think St. Mary's and Cleveland State warranted more consideration before being relegated to the NIT.

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Padres P Tim Stauffer is looking like a potential ace after becoming the first starter to work five innings this spring...If 1B Anthony Rizzo is all-that, why did he get send to minor league camp so early? I understand a need to get him at bats, but he'd get plenty with the big guys for another week or so...With P Aaron Poreda also sent down Friday, it is looking more and more like the trade of P Jake Peavy is turning out to be straight-up him for P Clayton Richard...As well as OF Eric Patterson is doing, I like OF Aaron Cunningham. There has to be room for another gamer on the roster.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Gay's Back Determines Aztecs Fate, Sportscasters

As encouraging as it is to see San Diego State F Billy White becoming an offensive force again, the Aztecs will go as deep into the conference and NCAA tournaments as G DJ Gay's back allows.

Yes, we all know about how coach Steve Fisher calls Gay his "most important player" and it is true, but Gay is sinking barely over a quarter of his jumpers the past few games. He still logs significant minutes, but since he hurt his lower back a few weeks ago, his shot has been off just a smidgen. There have been more than a few in-and-outs that, earlier, would have tickled nothing but net.

If Gay's health allows him to return to form, the Aztecs will go deep. If not, there could be a disappointing early exit.

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Well, Don Norcross' article on San Diego sports talk radio hosts sure did draw a lot of attention, particularly over his rating of "zero microphones" for Lee Hamilton. Taste for any radio host is subjective, as we'll see in a moment. One odd example in news talk is a few years ago when Bill O'Reilly had a radio show, I like to listen to it very much. I can't stand his television program.

What it comes down to for me is if someone is talking about a sports topic I'm interested in, I listen. If not, I switch. My taste is subject-related, not about the host.

Some of my takes:

-- Scott & BR. I tuned them out years ago when every time I tuned in they were talking about the Lakers. This is San Diego. I don't know if they still talk a lot about the Lakers because I don't listen much. Also, Scott Kaplan is the radio voice of the Aztec bandwagon. Up to this year, all he did was bad-mouth or ignore SDSU athletics. Now they mean everything to him. Huh?

-- Hacksaw. I don't know about zero microphones. The guy does his schtick and always has. You either like it or you don't. It's like trashing green grapes because they're so 80s.

-- Darren Smith. When he first started in San Diego, he was maybe the worst sports radio host. Now he is one of the best. Not sure whether that means more for his improvement or about the drain of talent from the local market. He no longer sighs much, indicating to the listeners that they should be bored, so that is a good thing. He has a good head on his shoulders, so I think his opinions are worth a listen.

-- John Kentera. Coach is like Hamilton, he's done his thing consistently for decades now. I appreciate his love for high school sports. I get frustrated when he gets, often, tongue-tied.

-- I think Norcross was on the money with his takes on the hosts over at 1360. Chris Ello loves to take three pages to ask a question that most people could ask in a simple phrase. However, you can count on him to have a take on something no one else will have, and that in time will turn out to be correct.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

MWC Teams Mostly Sensible, Other News

Usually, post-season voting in the Mountain West Conference focuses a lot more on the "mountain" and not so much on the "west," but the basketball all-MWC teams announced on Monday mostly make sense.

That includes San Diego State's Steve Fisher sharing the Coach of the Year Award with Dave Rose of BYU. Both have done amazing jobs this season. Critics of Rose say all he needs to do is direct Player of the Year Jimmer Fredette to drive or pull up for the jumper -- and then hide him on defense -- but he led a team with one star and a bunch of quality spare parts to a 28-3 record. That's an outstanding accomplishment. You can argue that the Aztecs should be 29-2 with their talent level relative to the competition they've played this season. Great jobs by both coaches, so sharing is appropriate.

I also think honorary-mention kudos should go to Colorado State's Tim Miles, who has his program on the rise. The Rams were knocking on the NCAA's door just a couple of weeks ago.

What thrilled me was the selection of G DJ Gay as a first-team player, along with the obvious choice of F Kawhi Leonard. Fisher kept referring to Gay as SDSU's "most important player," and he is, and voters were listening.

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I read the joint statement from San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders and Chargers owner Dean Spanos on their meeting about the stadium issue, and didn't come away with too much. They chatted, Sanders told him there wouldn't be much redevelopment money to pay for a new facility. They talked more and Spanos told him not to expect financing help from the NFL. Then they sighed and scheduled another meeting.

I wonder if they can combine the football stadium and a new city hall into one project.

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Let me see, Padres 3B Chase Headley blames his mediocre 2010 results on his inability to retain weight. According to the newspaper, he dropped from 208 pounds to 200. That's EIGHT pounds! EIGHT (8)! You can lose eight pounds in an extra-inning July day game in St. Louis. How about this? He wasn't very good at the plate.

He might be better this year. I hope he is, for his sake and ours. Seems like a nice kid, just drop the excuses. It's baseball and he was beaten by the competition.

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Speaking of being unrealistic, there's Padres GM Jed Hoyer, who tried to make Gregg Zaun the backup catcher, only to have him retire on Tuesday. Zaun is a tender 39 years of age. Sixteen years of crouching behind the plate will make you tender. And they were counting on him? There's planning for you...The Padres got shut down by Kansas City P Sean O'Sullivan (Valhalla High) on Monday and Oakland P Trevor Cahill (Vista High) Tuesday...Oft-injured P Joel Zumaya (Montgomery High) might miss the beginning of the regular season because of a sore elbow...SDSU baseball now has a 2-10 record after losing 12-9 to Cal State Northridge. The Aztecs shouldn't lose to Northridge in any sport...USD is not much better at 3-7.

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The San Diego Union-Tribune rates the hosts heard on local sports talk radio programs on Wednesday. I don't agree with all the writer's ratings, but he makes a lot of good points.

Thursday, March 03, 2011

Karma Puts SDSU Back in Title Picture

"Instant Karma's gonna get you,
Gonna knock you right on the head" -- John Lennon

No truer words were ever spoken when it comes to BYU athletics and especially their insufferable fans. Just days after the Cougars shot the lights out, again, to beat San Diego State in a big college basketball game and their fans gloated like crazy, their best frontline player, Brandon Davies, was suspended for the year for having sex with his girlfriend -- a violation of the BYU honor code. The Cougars lost their next game by 18 points to drop into, hey, a tie in the Mountain West Conference standings with SDSU.

If both teams win Saturday, or both lose, they'll finish in a tie at the top of the MWC heap. BYU would receive the top-seed in the MWC Tournament on the strength of their sweep over the Aztecs. If there's a split, the winner takes the title outright.

Both teams will be at home, but SDSU has the tougher opponent, Colorado State. Wyoming travels to Provo just hoping to end its nightmare of a season. So there is no gloating here, because BYU is likely to win its finale by 30 and figure out a way to restore an inside presence for March Madness. I also take note that, far different from football, the Aztecs coaches and players have nothing but respect for coach Dave Rose, Jimmer and the rest of the basketball Cougars. And you have to appreciate them for living by their standards, whether you agree with them or not. I actually hope they get things together for the NCAA Tournament.

Their fans are another story. If, and it remains an if, the teams remain tied atop the conference standings Sunday morning, BYU's fans will always see San Diego State right there with the same record. Priceless.

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Tony Gwynn and the SDSU baseball team is off to a 1-6 start, having only beaten Winthrop. The losses have come to highly regarded Vanderbilt, defending champion UCLA, tough UC Irvine and USD, so it's not like the wheels are coming off. They have a young team.

Yet, this weekend they play host to Cal, UConn and Oklahoma, and the following weekend Arkansas comes in for four. There's no reason to suspect the record is going to improve any. They could easily begin the season with only two or three victories despite playing 14 of their first 15 games at home. That is not a way to start a season.

Last May, I wrote that Gwynn deserved a mulligan for a 28-28 2010 record that included a ridiculous siege of injuries. You have to extend it to this year because of his bout with cancer and the youth of his team. Against the Bruins, Gwynn started four freshmen and two sophomores. Like coach Bill Grier with his tender young basketball team over at USD, we'll have to watch for signs of improvement over the course of the season before making any determinations about the future.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Reality Cuts Into Aztecs Drive For No. 1 Seed

In the wake of BYU's 80-67 win over San Diego State at Viejas Arena Saturday, a couple of troubling facts that have risen in the background the past couple of weeks became very evident.

First was that while SDSU got by Colorado State by a buzzer-beater, were lucky to win at undisciplined UNLV and were sloppy against revved up TCU, BYU was pounding those teams by large margins.

Second was that some of those supposedly meaningful wins last fall now don't look all that exciting. Wichita State has compiled a fine record but if the Shockers don't win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, they might be NIT-bound. Cal is a mid-level team in a mid-level Pac-10. Gonzaga and Saint Mary's are both pretty so-so. Even the Mountain West Conference is looking rather average, all of a sudden, beyond the top two places.

For the last couple weeks, these were annoying thoughts in the back of our minds. But when the Cougars threw down a few slam dunks in garbage time to open up the margin of Saturday's game, they became major facts in Aztec reality.

The loss hurts, but is not devastating. Barring a letdown in the final two games, they will be seeded second in the MWC Tournament in Las Vegas, but you have to figure all three games are going to be rough no matter who they play. If they win out and win the MWC tourney, they'll earn a three-seed in the NCAA Tournament. I don't see them going lower than fourth. However, a fourth seed then has to beat a fifth seed to make the Sweet 16, so the road just got tougher.

Learning the upper limit of your team is okay, but it sucks for it to be BYU that hands out the lesson...It also stinks that those AP poll voters who refused to move SDSU over some of those teams that lost the week earlier were correct. The Aztecs team that showed up Saturday probably doesn't even deserve the No. 6 ranking. I can see them dropping to No. 10 on Monday...National Coach of the Year? Dave Rose might give Steve Fisher a run for his money, and deservedly so. He has Fisher figured out, and the reverse is not true...That pre-game dunk-fest by the Aztecs was almost worth the price of admission by itself, but while all that was going on, the Cougars were quietly preparing in a businesslike manner.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Big Chill Perfect for SDSU-BYU Part Dos

In the years before Steve Fisher arrived at San Diego State, you'd have thought you would never see a week like this until hell freezes over. Well, the weatherman says places in our county often hotter than hell could see snow the same day 27-1 SDSU, ranked No. 6 in the country, hosts No. 7 BYU at Viejas Arena. How fitting.

So I was dead wrong in my post figuring the Aztecs would come out of Marriott Center with a huge win last month, but I still think I'm right that the better team lost the first match-up. Cougars G Jimmer Fredette made himself the favorite for national Player of the Year honors that night, and it wasn't just that he scored 43 points but how he did it, with off-balance NBA-length three-point baskets taken with a defending hand shielding his face.

Plus, most of the Aztecs front line went inexplicably soft in the face of a ferocious effort by the BYU bigs to not get dominated under the basket. The lone exception was flu-ridden F Kawhi Leonard, who put his IV tubes aside to keep the Aztecs in the game. Once it was over, F Malcolm Thomas admitted the sub-standard play and took responsibility on his strong shoulders.

I have a hard time seeing Fredette, now hobbled by a leg bruise, going off again to such a proportion and his teammates, while good, are not capable of such a performance. I also think the SDSU forwards are going to be much stronger this time around. That should add up to an Aztecs win -- which would take our minds off white stuff dusting El Capitan or Mount Woodson.

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Here's something to look forward to. Going into the season, you could look at the Aztecs roster and see 10 guys capable of contributing. Instead, Fisher has kept his rotation at eight players and the full-court press has been only token. I suspect that at some point, either Saturday vs. BYU, in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, or the NCAA Tournament, Fisher is going to turn these guys loose for 94 feet of hell. It'll be fun to watch if it happens...I'm not perturbed about the Aztecs ranking in the AP poll this week, remaining stuck at 6 after four of the teams ahead of them lost. I can see some arguments for not moving them higher. But I have two worries. One, that there are writers out there who just aren't going to put them higher for any reason whatsoever. Two, that there are a couple of voters who put them far lower than 6, and there is clearly no reason for that. Remember not even the greatest of baseball players have made it to the Hall of Fame unanimously. There are weirdos with votes. The big question is, if the Aztecs beat BYU handily, will these people move the Aztecs up to where they belong?...I hope the students aren't so bleary eyed by camping out for tickets that they can't put up a show by the time the game rolls around on Saturday.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Stauffer, Hundley Keys for 2010 Repeat

They're the swing voters, the ones who will determine whether the upcoming baseball season for the Padres will be a repeat of 2010's fun or a return to inept 2009. P Tim Stauffer and C Nick Hundley just might hold the Padres fortunes in their hands this time time around.

The pitching rotation should have some constants in Mat Latos and Clayton Richard, barring injury. Questions follow. Can Aaron Harang return to form after injuries? Can Wade LeBlanc and/or Cory Luebke throw consistently over the long haul?

It would be nice if Stauffer can pitch like he did last September, and thus push those questions from the middle of the rotation to the end. It is a must if the Padres are going to win their Petco Park-style 2-1 games. He allowed more than one run only once in his last five starts and never walked more than two batters in any of those outings. His final ERA was 1.85, coming in a season in which he had an emergency appendectomy. That's pitching like a former first-round draft choice. If he's on in 2011, the Padres will have a fighting chance.

Hundley was the forgotten man down the stretch last season as manager Bud Black turned to the now-departed Yorvit Torrealba down the stretch. Hundley is now IT behind the plate, unless you consider Rob Johnson or Gregg Zaun legitimate alternatives. While Stauffer brings numbers that project nicely into this season, Hundley batted .249-8-43. He does handle the staff well and his defense is pretty good. It's just that catcher is about as important as it gets for a field position, and the Padres' safety net has holes. I do like some of the things I've been reading and hearing about Hundley, however, so the reason I make a linchpin is he actually has a chance to develop into a team leader and offensive contributor. If it happens, look for the Padres to contend.

Looking up: I see big things ahead for Latos, OF Will Venable, P Ernesto Frieri and, of course, GAB. I'm amazed GAB is still here, the way this off-season went.

Looking down: As much as I'd like to see Harang recover, I just can't see him doing it for a full season. Look for ex-Red to have a good first two months, but the summer will wear him down. My position changed on Venable over time because I saw him make progress. My feelings on OF Ryan Ludwick remain the same because, well, it's February and the guy hasn't had a chance to show me anything different. I'm just not optimistic.

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Nice to have the college baseball season back, just don't expect much out of either USD or San Diego State. Too much youth on both teams. Youth does bring hope, and both are working in top-notch recruiting classes. It wouldn't surprise me to see either or both teams in the Top 25 by early next season.

Head over to Cunningham Stadium on Saturdays to watch Dylan Covey pitch. Winthrop knocked him around for four runs in seven innings this weekend, but the freshman former first-round pick of the Milwaukee Brewers is going to be interesting to watch. Choose any day to go to Tony Gwynn Stadium to watch Brandon Meredith. The outfielder from Montgomery High in three games has a slugging percentage of 1.000, thanks to a double, triple and home run.

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Would you have liked to have been a fly on the inside of the fuselage for Saint Mary's flight home from here last week? Wow, what a choke! Maybe they bused here and back, or came by personal vehicle. That might explain their upset loss to USD.

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The SDSU-BYU Showdown II looms. It's gonna be mighty interesting around town later this week. Do not overlook the fact that while State has a week to prepare, the Cougars have to play Colorado State, which will be desperate after falling to UNLV on Saturday. The Rams are good enough for the NCAA Tournament, and this is their best shot at a signature win.

Friday, February 11, 2011

Tollner Sees it All at SDSU

Ted Tollner saw the best of football times at San Diego State, and some of the worst. Tollner, who reportedly is retiring as a coach at the age of 70, was offensive coordinator during the golden age of SDSU football during the 1970s and the head coach when the program began its slide toward near-oblivion.

Tollner is perhaps the least understood figure in the Aztec football family, respected by those who know him for his football knowledge and gentlemanly demeanor, and reviled by those who view him from afar and wrongly blame him for the program's collapse at the end of his tenure.

It was Tollner calling the plays in 1977, when the team that was arguably the Aztecs best went 10-1 and scored its signature win, a brazen 41-16 rout of a Bobby Bowden-coached Florida State team that earlier that day was awarded a bowl berth -- in an age when there were but a dozen post-season contests -- and SDSU could only dream of a late-December game. He developed star quarterbacks Jesse Freitas and Craig Penrose, and nursed productive seasons out of highly inconsistent Joe Davis and Mark Halda. His first stint also encompassed the 1979 team that beat Miami, Wisconsin and Arizona before he left in 1980.

When he returned to Montezuma Mesa 14 years later, it was as head coach, but the landscape of college football had changed.

-- SDSU's greatness in the 1960s and 1970s stemmed from being one of the few schools that relied on the pass, torching defenses built to stop ground-oriented option offenses. Everyone was throwing by the time he returned, and everyone had defenses designed to stop the pass.

-- The Aztecs dominance also stemmed from owning JC recruiting back in the day when JC players were worth something. When Tollner returned, they no longer had the stranglehold on California's community colleges they once did, and two-year schools did not produce mass quantities of quality players. The situation is even worse now. The latest SDSU recruiting class of 23 players has no one from the JC ranks.

-- The forerunner of the BCS, the Bowl Alliance, began in 1995, a year after Tollner returned to State. With the Aztecs in the Western Athletic Conference, there was going to be no opportunity for a major bowl appearance or bid for a championship. When a 12-1 BYU team was denied a major bowl, and a pair of 8-win SDSU teams failed to be invited to bowls of any sort, Tollner's recruiting efforts were doomed, and it soon showed.

Tollner had the right idea when he returned. The Aztecs had to have an effective power-running game to consistently succeed. Defenses were anywhere from pretty good to great. But you need a roster of quality depth to win in college football, and Tollner couldn't keep the cupboard full. He rarely took risks with recruiting and eventually stopped competing against the Pac-10 for players -- one of things that Tollner-haters point to even today.

Simply put, Tollner won when he had players and lost when he didn't have enough. Thanks to the Bowl Alliance and the BCS, the deck was stacked against him.

The end came in 2001, when the Aztecs lost 31-3 to a UNLV team that was 1-4 at the time. It was clear then, even with five games left, that the Tollner-era was crashing down, and I wrote as much on my old Web site. He was fired before the finale, in which his Aztecs won -- getting their first victory since before the UNLV game.

I never blamed Tollner for what happened, and I don't now. He was in a tough, possibly no-win situation. I think my theory was proven by his successor, Tom Craft, who went the other direction by gambling big-time in recruiting and lost in spectacular fashion. I don't blame Craft, either. He had to do what he did, and it just didn't work.

Recruiting finally picked back up under Chuck Long, and that was only because Utah proved that the BCS noose on college football could be loosened. The Utes, Hawaii, Boise State and TCU have since opened the floodgates and now SDSU can compete for any high school player it wants. It is no accident that it took this long for SDSU football to get back to post-season play. Those players brought here by Chuck Long matured and were augmented by better recruits from Brady Hoke. Tollner, after his first few years, and Craft never had that chance. I think Tollner would have had the Aztecs bowling regularly if he had a roster of the kind of players he enjoyed in the mid-1990s. There was just no way he could get them anymore, and he knew it.

The hate for him, and Craft, is something I don't understand about my fellow Aztecs fans. It is misplaced. Both tried and it just didn't work out. My sincere hope with Tollner retiring is that Athletic Director Jim Sterk and new head coach Rocky Long will reach out and bring him back into the Aztec family where he belongs.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Notes on LT and Crow, Aztecs, New Padres

I haven't had much time for long posts lately, but here's a few notes on some things in the local sports scene:

I really don't understand all the local controversy over the playoff fate and performances of LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie. They are irrelevant now. It makes for some media fodder, but that's about it...My sources tell me there is not going to be any substantive news about the potential new downtown stadium for the Chargers for a while. All the action is in LA. However, the conditions levied on the LA City Council by Philip Anschutz may be too much for them to handle, so that's no sure thing.

Kind of funny reading stories about how tough BYU's Marriott Center has been on the San Diego State basketball team over the years. Irrelevant, also. The Pit and Huntsman Center have been rough on the Aztecs, as well, and you've seen what's happened there...I think SDSU is as likely to win Showdown No. 1 on Wednesday night because they're a better team and, despite the record, I'm not sure BYU is as good as it was last season...If you think this town is going Aztecs crazy, wait until after they beat the Cougars. If they do, you can paint this town red and black...The football team's offensive coordinator is going to be Andy Ludwig, who directed Utah's attack in their undefeated season a couple of years ago. Wow! Just wow! It's all going good...I'm pleased to see former USD head coach Kevin McGarry was hired to handle the linebackers. His separation from USD was handled horribly by the school. It's great to see him land on his feet.

Speaking of USD, I last week heard some serious anti-Bill Greer sentiment for the first time in other areas of the media. My criticism has always been over the way predecessor Brad Holland was let go, putting pressure on Greer to perform. And you've seen how it has gone. But Greer is certainly going to get another year.

Like Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson, I'd have preferred to see Jorge Cantu a few years ago. Now is a little late...If Tim Stauffer is pitching well through May, I'd spring for a multi-year contract...I can't complain about the pitching moves, though. Throw out the 2010 ERA of the latest bullpen pickup, Chad Qualls, because he's been very solid throughout his career.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Rocky Smooths Over Fans, Prepare for 18-1

Here's one coach who didn't take long (pun sort of intended) to win over his fan base.

In one fell swoop, Rocky Long undid 24 hours of despair by San Diego State fans and restored their self-worth. Even the best of psychologists would have taken years and charged thousands to accomplish such a feat.

While Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles and, apparently, Jon Gruden were saying no thanks to Michigan, former Aztecs coach Brady Hoke was slobbering over athletic director Dave Brandon's shoes. For all the great things he accomplished here, Hoke personally and the SDSU football program were diminished as a result.

Then defensive coordinator Rocky Long stepped to the plate and said SDSU was where he preferred to be and that the program was in better shape than that of the Wolverines. What he lacks in football sense is made up by his ability to spot a higher quality of life. Nothing could have picked up the program, and its backers, more.

The two things I did not expect Monday night were for Hoke to leave and for me to be happy about it because of the replacement. Hoke's regime at State was never all about him, to his credit. The strength was in the staff as a whole, particularly in the core of Hoke, outgoing offensive coordinator Al Borges, Long running the defense, QB coach Brian Sipe and strength and conditioning coach Aaron Wellman. While State will be worse off for the breakup of the staff, they're better off at the top. That surprises me.

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I don't understand the animosity of fans toward Hoke for leaving. These things are always ugly, but the vast majority of it can land at the feet the former chief Aztec was licking. For God's sake, Hoke took our run-down wreck of a program and turned it into a bowl winner in less than three calendar years. If you remember 2008, what happened this past season was a miracle.

Yeah, Hoke could have handled it better, but some of the complaints, like him not meeting with the SDSU players, hold no water -- the example because the students don't return to campus until next week.

I thank Hoke, and his staff, for what they accomplished here and I'm happy for him that he got his dream job. He has a big job ahead of him, and the stakes and pressure will be much bigger than they ever were here.

Meanwhile, the Dominoes Pizza airplane flew from Ann Arbor to Baton Rouge to Hilton Head, S.C., back to either Ann Arbor or Baton Rouge -- at any rate, it was in the Louisiana city again somehow -- to Ann Arbor to Orange County and finally to Ann Arbor again. I think someone may have noted a stop in Phoenix along the way. All in service of finding a head coach for Michigan. I wonder how many poor teens in Detroit could have been given part-time jobs for the money spent just in fuel.

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San Diego State's first loss will be Saturday at New Mexico, and 18-1 still looks really darn good. I just don't think the Aztecs can win two bruisers in a row, the second following a long plane trip. They're also in a typical mid-season slump, having had to resort to winning ugly the past couple of weeks. Former SDSU basketball teams would have lost some of the recent games. It's a sign of the high level of the current team that they're winning, sometimes easily, when they aren't playing their best. But this is an annual thing. Coach Steve Fisher, who gained his 400th career victory in the UNLV game, always has his team ready for the madness at the end of the season.

(Late Saturday edit: ain't it nice being wrong. 19-0. Wow!)

I liked the towels, mainly because the wife and kids had fun with them...Maybe it's me, but I'm seeing Malcolm Thomas moving ahead of DJ Gay and Kawhi Leonard for team MVP. He's been a huge force lately...I figured out why Billy White is so inconsistent. He has no rhythm, so he can't dance. Check him out in the huddle during pre-game introductions sometime. He looked like a computer science major before the UNLV game...The equipment manager might want to check with the Marines for body armor before they go to Vegas for the UNLV rematch.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Hoffman, Hoke and Rivera

It's quite a sports day in San Diego when two football teams lose important coaches and they aren't the top stories of the day.

That honor goes to Trevor Hoffman, the former Padre fan favorite, who recognized the end of his effectiveness and announced his retirement to mlb.com. He will speak to other reporters at Petco Park on Wednesday. Hoffman has 601 career saves, 42 more than Mariano Rivera of the Yankees on the all-time list.

Two interesting points in the article:

1. He will join the Padres in a front-office role.

2. He apparently still carries some animosity toward the club for how they parted ways two years ago. He said time heals wounds, and that he likes how the Padres -- with many new faces in the executive ranks -- have reached out to him. But he turned down a chance to sign with the Padres for a day to retire as a friar. I think that last part is something he will regret as he gets older.

The obvious question now is whether he should be a Hall of Famer. I think so, though only one career reliever is enshrined in Cooperstown, Bruce Sutter. I'm just not sure about voters elsewhere in baseball who only saw him humbled in his All-Star appearances. As in everything, it depends who else is eligible in a given year, but he should get in at some point.

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The drama involved in whether Brady Hoke would remain the head football coach at San Diego State in 2011 was such that when we went to bed Monday night, it seemed all but certain that he would stay. When we woke up Tuesday, we learned that LSU's Les Miles decided to stay in Baton Rouge rather than take the head job at Michigan.

That left Michigan AD Dave Brandon left with a choice between a drawn-out national search during the height of recruiting season, or picking the guy who has been raising his hand and crying out "Me! Me! Me!" over the past month. The choice, gulp, became obvious, and now Hoke is set to be introduced Wednesday as the Wolverines new head coach.

I have no problem with Hoke leaving for his dream job. Good for him. I appreciate how he came to a rotten situation at SDSU, turned around the sinking ship and refloated it. Some people saw Hoke as a job-shopper, but not me. He said early on Michigan was the place he would leave for, and it was simply unfortunate that the job in Ann Arbor opened when it did. With defensive coordinator Rocky Long set to succeed him on Wednesday, the Aztecs could come out of this not much worse for wear.

The big danger is a loss of continuity with assistant coaches following Hoke. Their number will almost certainly include strength and conditioning coach Aaron Wellman -- as responsible as anyone for turning around the program -- and running backs coach/recruiting coordinator Jeff Hecklinski, my choice to stay as head coach. The list could expand to include offensive coordinator Al Borges.

Now that Long appears to be the choice, I think it is important to promote QB coach Brian Sipe to offensive coordinator, so senior QB Ryan Lindley won't have to face his third system in four years. Plus, there a lot of young receivers to break in this year. Changing things radically won't be good at this point.

We're about to find out what AD Jim Sterk is made of...Ironic that SDSU travels to the Big House in September, and could have a legit chance to beat the former coach...While Hoke is replaceable, the timing could hardly have been worse for SDSU, making me wonder if there are grounds for seeking extra compensation from Michigan...I'd trade Hoke to Michigan for basketball coach Steve Fisher any day.

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If all that is not enough, the Chargers will be greatly hurt by the loss of defensive coordinator Ron Rivera, the new head man at Carolina. The Chargers didn't blow this past season because of defense. Various names are being floated as a replacement, so we'll see how it works out.

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

Hoke Could Stay After All

Three dots on San Diego State football...

After a very strange Tuesday, I'm now betting that Brady Hoke will roam the Aztec sidelines this fall. Michigan's decision-making over whether to fire Rich Rodriguez is at a very delicate stage contractually with buyouts and cost factors to hire a new coach. The Michigan athletic department can afford a lot of money, but paying off Rodriguez and buying out Hoke's SDSU contract may not leave enough money left for salaries...It seems like the pressure is hot on the Michigan AD to make a splash with a really big name, and Hoke does not fill the bill. Stanford's Jim Harbaugh is going to the NFL if he goes anywhere, and LSU's Les Miles is going to be expensive. As good a fit as Hoke would be in Ann Arbor, he might end up staying...The outsiders at Michigan see Hoke as someone who has had only two good seasons, without taking a closer look at what the programs at Ball State and SDSU were like before he arrived. Those seasons were miraculous on his part. On the other hand, he has yet to win a big game. In that 12-1 season with the Cardinals, the 1 was in the MAC championship game, and he was already here for their bowl that year. He arguably has not won a big game here, either. Air Force and Navy were nice, but they were out-manned service academies. The Missouri loss was strictly a coaching blunder -- forget the non-call on the Tigers game-winning TD. He blew a lead of something like 28-10 against Utah. This was a nice season, but we're still waiting for the "big win"...It would be a huge loss for the Aztecs if Hoke left, of course, but a real tragedy for QB Ryan Lindley if offensive coordinator Al Borges left. Can you imagine the kid playing for three OC's in four years? Ouch...I do not understand defensive coordinator Rocky Long interviewing for the head job at Texas State. It makes you wonder what really went on at New Mexico when he left...If Hoke does leave, I think the best move is to hire someone who wants to stay here for a long time. I'd check out running backs coach Jeff Hecklinski, who is the assistant head coach and recruiting coordinator. If you're going to lose your head coach and maybe coordinators, you at least want to keep the recruiting intact, and Hecklinski probably has built up as many contacts with local high school coaches as Hoke has. He is relatively young and has done a good job with his ball-carriers.