Aztecs Scenarios Add Up to Rout

My only prediction for the biggest men's basketball game in San Diego State's history in the Sweet 16 Thursday night vs UConn is that it will be a rout.

Here are the scenarios:

-- SDSU wins big. More likely than the distasteful alternative. If the Aztecs get up on UConn in the second half, the young Huskies, who might start three freshmen, could fold quickly. The Aztecs will have to hit their shots, especially all those 3- and 5-footers they clanged in Tucson, but if they do it will combine with their strong rebounding and ferocious defense to make things very tough on their opponents. G Kemba Walker will have to face defense by DJ Gay, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard, putting a lot of pressure on the other Huskies to score. I don't think they'll have seen a defense that can throw that many tough guys on him. I don't think the SDSU home court advantage will mean much to them, but it won't help, either. It will work better in the alternative, picking the Aztecs up if the Huskies get on a run.

-- SDSU loses big. Less likely, and clearly the scenario we don't want to come true. Those shots that weren't going in the basket last weekend aren't falling in this game, either, and maybe even the three-pointers go away. The Aztecs can't afford one of those 0-for-18 shooting nights from behind the arc. Talk about the experience State has from guarding Jimmer three times, you have to admit the guy burned them in two. You hear a lot of how BYU beat SDSU twice by 13 points, but those games were close until the last few minutes. When time gets short and it becomes apparent that the dream is over, the air will escape from SDSU's balloon like a jet -- it's just human nature. It happened in both regular season losses. A respectable score could get out of hand in garbage time.

All of which means it will come down to a final shot, or triple-overtime.

The two things I don't want to see:

1. A repeat of what nearly happened against Temple, when the Aztecs almost threw the game away against a tired, over-matched opponent. SDSU should have won that game comfortably. Getting beat is one thing, throwing it away would end a wonderful season on a sour note.

2. Too many of those Round of 32 games came down to officiating in the final seconds, whether the calls were correct or not. It'd be shame if SDSU was sent home based on what some guy in a striped shirt decided. It would also be too bad if the Aztecs win on a controversial call, because you know all the East Coast honks will say SDSU didn't really deserve to win.

Now that the pressure of making the Sweet 16 is off, let's hope the Aztecs come in fast and loose. If they hit some shots early, this could be a great night.