Monday, October 25, 2010

Turnovers, Padres Far From World Series

Turnovers don't just happen out of nowhere, in such a way that they can be prevented by a little more practice. My experience in following and covering football for many years is that fumbles and interceptions are mostly the result of one team being physically more talented than the other. Sometimes a team can be sloppy or careless, but mostly it happens because your opponent is better than you. They're quicker to the ball and strong enough to jar it loose.

I bring this up after another Chargers loss, 23-20 to New England, in which the Bolts lost three fumbles and an interception and the Patriots had zero turnovers. This game was kind of an outlier because two of the fumbles were bizarre -- Richard Goodman putting the ball on the ground before he was touched and Jacob Hester ignoring a screen pass that went backwards. Even so, that still leaves another fumble and the pick.

The fact is that the 2010 version of the home team lost too many good players from last year's entry, and the turnovers are the result. Turnovers and missed plays on special teams have been the hallmark of this year's team, and they are not something that is going to be corrected overnight.

Here are some stats to make you think:

1. Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert combined to gain 20 yards on 10 carries. Talk all day about how the Chargers doubled the total yardage on the Patriots, but that was all Philip Rivers passing.

2. Buster Davis, for all the criticism he has received, caught six passes in the game.

3. New England gained four first downs from Chargers penalties. The Bolts were penalized six times to the Patriots seven -- their timing stinks.

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It's easy to sit here and think that the Padres might have been just this close to the World Series, since the NL West rival Giants made it. However, watching the National League Championship Series made me realize just how far away this team is. Who among the Padres is the kind of dominant player that we saw with the Giants or the Phillies?

The Padres have one, closer Heath Bell. Adrian Gonzalez can be one but his injury-plagued 2010 makes me pause, and Mat Latos has the stuff but remains unproven. David Eckstein is a former World Series MVP but his body has taken a toll since.

Compare that to the NL champion Giants:

P - Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Brian Wilson
C - Buster Posey

Cody Ross did come through in the clutch in the NLCS and Madison Bumgarner gives them a fourth shutdown pitcher who is tender young like Latos. That's four for the Giants (and two possibles) to one for the Padres (and three possibles), but could you really imagine anyone but Bell coming through in the post-season? Me neither.

Try the Phillies:

P - Roy Halladay, P Roy Oswalt, P Cole Hamels
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins, though his best years might be behind him.
RF - Jayson Werth

The Padres just don't compare, making their 2010 performance even more remarkable. Manager Bud Black performed miracles and pitching coach Darren Balsley does everything but walk on water. The Padres will be competitive again in 2011, unless the off-season is a disaster, but some of these young guys like Latos, Kyle Blanks and Will Venable need to step up their games to a much higher level if they want to accomplish anything in the playoffs.

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