Padres Off-Season

While the Padres off-season mantra will be all about change, expect a lot of familiar faces to return in 2011.

A dearth of quality free agents will make next season's roster similar to 2010 version, barring a few trades engineered by GM Jed Hoyer. Heck, this was a 90-win team that came a couple of days from winning the National League West. While one needs more offense, there is no reason to blow up the nucleus of the ballclub.

What changes do occur during the off-season will stem from two sources:

1. The Padres have a bunch of guys either entering option years, or whose contracts expired at the end of the season and will become free agents. According to various web sources, the list includes 1B Adrian Gonzalez (team option for 2011), 2B David Eckstein, SS Miguel Tejada, C Yorvit Torrealba (mutual option), RF Ryan Ludwick, OF Scott Hairston, UTIL Jerry Hairston Jr., P Chris Young (team option for 2011), P Jon Garland (mutual option for 2011), P Kevin Correia, P Heath Bell and P Mike Adams. Most of those guys were working on one-year contracts this season and most will return. The ones who could hurt if they leave, clearly, are Gonzalez and Bell.

2. They also have a lot of pitching that can be packaged in trade for an offense-minded position player. However, pitching depth will be determined by how free agency plays out, so don't look for Hoyer to make many moves early. You can't trade who you don't own.

What happens over the next several months will be interesting. The general consensus has been that the Padres would be able to afford either Gonzalez or Bell, but not both. However, Gonzalez has a shoulder injury and the resulting lowered production might have cost his team the division title. In San Francisco, he was unable to move his right arm above his head to make plays in the field. Other teams will see that, so it is no longer a certainty that his demands will be met in free agency. It could be that he goes out on the market, finds interest in him to be reduced, and ultimately remains here at home where he belongs. The Padres won't be unmotivated to take advantage of such a scenario, either, as heir apparent Kyle Blanks (remember him?) was ineffective early in 2010 and then missed the rest of the season with an injury.

A similar scenario could play out for Young. He is due something like $8.5 million for his 2011 option. No way the Padres ante up that kind of cash. Neither will anyone else for someone who is now an injury-plagued, 5-inning starting pitcher. He could find the market to be weak and come back to San Diego for a far-more-reasonable $4 million, or thereabouts. Young would be a great guy to have in the rotation in 2011, and as wise counsel to P Mat Latos. The Padres are a better team with Young in the rotation.

It would be amazing to start 2011 with Gonzalez, Bell and Young all on the Padres roster, but while the chances remain slim, they still exist -- maybe by a thread.

The best way to evaluate the Padres roster will be to prioritize:

1. Untouchable: Latos.

2. Would Really Like to Keep (other than Gonzo, Bell and Young): Eckstein, Hairston Jr., the catching combination of Torrealba and Nick Hundley, OF Will Venable, who showed considerable promise after finally making adjustments to his swing, and Tony Gwynn, who provides valuable defense in CF.

3. Into the Pool: Most everyone else, including quite a few decent players.

4. Wave Goodbye: Ludwick, who made nice about wanting to show Padre fans what he can really do next season, but it would be a shock if he hasn't already run screaming into the wilderness away from Petco Park and would be disappointing if Hoyer bothered to make him an offer; Hairston, the Scott-version, who hit just .210.

My feelings toward Tejada are more mixed. He was an upgrade at SS over Everth Cabrera and played pretty well and ingratiated himself with San Diego fans, but his lazy throw to 3B eventually led to the only run being scored in a 1-0 loss to the Giants in September, one of many, many things that led to the Padres being home instead of playing in the playoffs. He's a gamer, no doubt, it was one bad throw. But he'd aging and if the Padres can upgrade further still at this key position, I'd be willing to let Tejada walk.

The morning newspaper made it sound like Eckstein is, if not gone, will no longer be a regular at 2B, with Tejada possibly taking over for Headley at third. However, can the Padres really upgrade at both 2B and SS in the same off-season? Doubtful. Take a look at a list of potential free agents. See anyone you really want? Uh, no. So if you go the trade route for the middle infield, then the outfield will be left virtually intact.

There will also be a lot of interest in the formation of a starting rotation. Right now, there are eight guys vying for five spots:

1. Latos

2. Clayton Richard

3. Tim Stauffer, who won himself a spot in the April rotation with his clutch September performance

4. Garland (if re-signed)

5. Young (if-signed)

6. Wade LeBlanc -- don't discount a young lefty who had some good starts this year.

7. Cory Luebke

8. Correia (if re-signed)

The crystal ball says if Correia is brought back, it won't be for a fulltime starter's role; that the Padres will re-sign either Young or Garland, but not both, and that LeBlanc and Luebke will duel for the fifth spot in the rotation.

The Padres will get something done with Bell, but Adams or Luke Gregerson will become trade bait. Look for young Ernesto Frieri and Ryan Webb to compete for the seventh inning spot.

Interesting decisions will also have to be made by Hoyer on Matt Stairs, whether to break up the Hairston brothers, whether Chase Headley's glove at the hot corner makes up for a weak bat, and whether gamers Aaron Cunningham and Chris Denorfia have a big league future.