Saturday is the real beginning of the Brady Hoke-era for San Diego State football. You only saw a minor imprint of the former linebacker's big paw in 2009 as his staff came to learn just how bad the Chuck Long train wreck was. Now that he's been on the job for about 20 months, Hoke has ownership and responsibility for what happens from here on out.
Thank God for it, because the next couple of years are going to be very interesting in the evolving makeup of college football, and the ability of SDSU football to re-create a viable market in San Diego is going to be of utmost importance. I am glad Hoke is in charge, and making the changes he's making, because I think the landscape of the sport is destined for radical change in the next three or four years. Schools large and small are going to decide they don't like the positions they find themselves in, and it will be worse as time marches on. What is going on now with the looming departures of BYU and Utah from the Mountain West Conference, and the upcoming additions of Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada, is small potatoes. Administrators in Salt Lake City and Provo will happily count their extra cash in the future but will cringe at 7-5 or worse records. The Cougars could be headed for irrelevance in the next few years while the Utes languish against superior competition.
If their futures are repeated at other schools across the country, change in the form of playoffs or super-conferences might take place. My joke is that the only super-conference likely to be formed will have only three teams: USC, Texas and Notre Dame. A three-team league, no one else matters.
Whatever the future holds, San Diego State better be ready. Bad teams playing before small crowds in an uninterested city is a situation no longer sustainable. Hoke has to do some nation-building here, and I think he is off to a good start. He has local high school coaches behind him, unusually strong support from the media, and has come up with some good ideas like last Friday's welcome to freshman, the Warrior Walk and return of the on-field spear planting -- deemed not PC by past administrations.
If there is a decent team that draws reasonably well in one of the 10 largest cities in the United States, then SDSU will be well-positioned for future super-conferences or re-leaguing. If the Aztecs extend their bowl drought much longer, you might be looking at the end of the program entirely.
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Local sportscaster Lee Hamilton wrote this week that San Diego State will be the surprise of college football and go 9-3 this season. I think he is a year too early. I have written here a couple of times that the Aztecs will compete for a 6-6 bowl this fall, and I've seen nothing that makes me change my mind.
There are plenty of causes for optimism:
-- QB Ryan Lindley is in his third season as the unquestioned starter and has shown great passing ability. He has made strides as a pro-style QB and should cut down on his penchant for disastrous errors. Look for him to have a big year.
-- The wide receivers as a group, and Vincent Brown as an individual, are rated high nationally and are a big reason why Lindley will excel. Add improved TE Alston Umuolo to the mix, and I'd hate to be an opposing defensive coordinator.
-- Ronnie Hillman is the Aztecs best chance for a feature back since Lynell Hamilton. While the offensive line gets trashed for not blocking well for the run, I saw a number of instances last fall in which holes were opened but the backs couldn't get through them. Hillman probably will change that.
-- The young depth on defense is exciting. Kids like LB Jake Fely and DB Rene Siluano are playmakers with a nose for the ball.
-- The schedule breaks well early, with the opening cupcake and winnable second game on the road at New Mexico State. No one expects a win at Missouri, but the Aztecs can apply whatever lessons they learned against the Tigers against Utah State at home. By then, the upperclassmen should be humming and the youngsters will have their feet wet -- just in time for the MWC slate.
Reality checks:
-- Of the three ballyhooed JC transfer offensive linemen brought in the stabilize the unit and provide competition, one didn't make it into school, one stuck long enough to go through training camp before being ruled academically ineligible, and the third failed to win a starting position.
-- That failure has left the offensive line awfully thin at right tackle and both guard spots.
-- If Lindley goes down ..., well, you know.
-- Running back depth has also been depleted by academic problems, some of which are not the fault of the student-athletes.
-- The defensive line is manned by players who have been trampled for two or three seasons now. They might be stronger and quicker, but does that mean they're better?
-- That young depth in the secondary will be a lot of fun to watch, but they're still just true and redshirt freshman, which always brings its own headaches. I'm not confident in the returning starters.
-- JC transfer Abel Perez should improve the kickoff situation, which has been horrible for a couple of years. I was not impressed by the coverage I saw in last month's scrimmage. I'm not sure we can count on Perez or Bryan Shields to be more reliable kicking field goals over what was here in 2009.
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Prediction: I think the passing game will be dynamic and spread the field so much that the running game will approve by default. The Aztecs are going to score points by the bushel and be fun to watch because there will be a lot of shootouts. Don't get smug when the defense performs well early. Nicholls State changed coaches and schemes and will need time to settle in, and New Mexico State had one of college football's worst offenses last season. Missouri, however, will hit SDSU up for at least 30, which will probably start a trend. It might be a return to how things were in the wacky WAC, but it will be fun to watch.
Yes, challenge for a 6-6 bowl and probably get there, and defeating whatever WAC, C-USA or Sun Belt team the Aztecs get to play. The most important question is whether Hoke can get anyone to care.
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