There is no division in the NFL quite so putrid as the AFC West. In a season in which the Chargers start without key cogs at left tackle, receiver, running back, nose tackle and linebacker, there is still no threat to the Bolts' annual division title coming from Denver, Kansas City or Oakland.
The AFC West was worse than ever in 2009, when the Chargers wrapped up the division title in September -- I'm exaggerating, but only a little -- and none of the other teams finished above .500. In fact, the Raiders were 5-11 and the Chiefs 4-12. I think there will be some bottom-up improvement this fall. Going through each division rival's schedule, I came up with a 6-10 finish -- for all of them. It's just the way it worked out. What's more, the first half of the 2010 slate is going to kill each of them: I figured the Broncos and Chiefs will get out of the gate 2-6, the Raiders a kinder 3-5.
It is a struggle finding good news for these teams. Broncos fans are going bonkers over future president Tim Tebow. The trouble is, the first-round draft pick from Florida won't play much outside the Wildcat and a couple special packages. The Chiefs have more weapons around QB Matt Cassell. The Raiders finally have a decent QB in Jason Campbell and a defensive Rookie of the Year candidate in MLB Rolando McClain.
But that's it for the happy talk. Compare it to the bad news, which hit Denver hard with injuries. DE Elvis Dumervil and his 17 sacks will be sidelined all year. RB Knowshon Moreno has been hurt, and so have a bunch of other Broncos. The offensive line at Jacksonville on Sunday could start two rookies and Marian Catholic High's Stanley Daniels, a really nice guy who has played little since leaving the University of Washington.
In Kansas City, Cassell was sacked 42 times last year, one of the highest totals in the NFL, and as a result he threw 16 picks to go with his 16 TDs. He will be helped by young RB Jamaal Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe, but a youth movement really means only that it is going to be another year or so before things get moving the right way. There could be good things happening in Arrowhead Stadium in 2011, but this is 2010.
Oakland had one of the worst defenses against the run in the NFL, and merely gets to open the season against defending rushing champion Chris Johnson of Tennessee. That Campbell is an upgrade shows how bad the Raiders were at QB in recent years. In Washington, Campbell finished mid-pack in passing yards and QB rating. Here's how bad the offensive line might be: they drafted a guy from a small college and had him at backup left tackle most of training camp, then switched him in the late-going to center, where he won the job! Amazing.
So look for very slow starts for all these teams, with final records of 6-10 or thereabouts. The Chargers, again, will breeze.
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Thank God for the Dodgers. They came in at the right time. I don't know if the Padres are cured or not, but they found someone playing even worse ... Memo to Padres P Jon Garland: if you don't want to be pulled from a game early, pitch better ... I agree that P Mat Latos deserves to be in the NL Cy Young chatter after the season, more for his amazing consistency than his 14-5 record and 2.21 ERA. You still need wins, and I think he needs three more to challenge the front-runners for the award, who are Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals (17-10, 2.34), Roy Halladay of the Phillies (17-10, 2.36) and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies (18-6, 2.79).
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