The 2010 Padres aren't dead yet, but a place in the baseball morgue with their name on it is being prepared after another 1-0 loss to the Cubs, who took three of four games in a series the Friars had to win to remain in serious contention in the National League West.
They now head to San Francisco with the barest of pulses, needing to win three straight games to forge a tie in the standings at the end of the season. You've seen the Padres swing the bats lately, so have I. It's time to say "stranger things have happened."
There will be a lot of soul searching around here in the next week or so, wondering just what the heck happened. Some blame-seeking. You shouldn't.
Look no farther than the loss of do-everything utility man Jerry Hairston Jr, the hero in a number of amazing Padres wins this season. After bothersome legs knocked him out of the lineup in late-August, the Padres lost eight straight games, a total mark of 4-10 until he returned as a pinch hitter. Hairston tried to make a go of it, but batted 1-for-13 and was shut down for the season after Sept. 17. From that point, the Padres went 6-6, not exactly a charge down the stretch. Think the Padres could have used him? Oh, yeah, and, man, he really gutted it out trying to stay in the lineup.
I also think an injury to David Eckstein in August can't be downplayed. Since he returned from injury on Aug. 21, the Padres went 15-23. Eck was also instrumental in a number of victories this season, but he had to play every game and was nowhere near as effective as he had been before he got hurt. He was mired in a 7-for-39 slump through Thursday's loss.
Both Hairston Jr and Eckstein were clutch, athletic cogs to an offense that contributed timely hits, quality at-bats and smart baserunning. Without Hairston, for example, manager Bud Black had to run Ryan Ludwick out into right field every day, when clearly the former Cardinal could have used some time off in August to rediscover his swing, or could have been benched entirely by mid-September. But Black had few options in the outfield during a final month in which Ludwick hit just .227 with 2 HR and 11 RBI. He hasn't knocked in a base-runner since Sept. 21 -- okay I'm starting the blame game now. Not what I want to do.
The Padres contended in 2010 because they had a roster full of gamers, none more so than Jerry Hairston Jr and David Eckstein. It's no surprise that, if the team does fall short of the post-season, injuries to these fine players will be a chief cause.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
THE Game for Padres, Dirty Hoops
There is math, then there is reality.
Math says that if the Padres are within three games of the Giants by the time they fly to San Francisco, they'll still have a chance. Reality is the Padres better beat the Cubs Wednesday night because time is running out on them. They are not only losing ground to the Giants, but also the Braves in the wildcard race.
Chris Young will be on the mound, which will give the Friars a solid shot at winning. The trouble is, it doesn't matter who is toeing the slab for Chicago because the home team can't hit its way out of a paper bag. In the final homestand of the season, the Padres have are 2-3, and now have to win the last two for a winning record over the key seven games. In September, with a chance to wrap up a division title, the Padres are 11-15, with five of the wins over a Dodgers team that was out of it in more ways than one.
What burns me up is that fate has done its part, has been kind to the Padres. The Braves are only 12-14 this month, and while the Giants are 16-8 in September, the Friars had a chance to split the recent four-game series at Petco but blew the Friday 1-0 game.
Keep your fingers crossed.
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I'm sure I mentioned somewhere before my opinion that as beautiful a game as basketball is on the court, it is ugly off the court. The game is as sordid as boxing. Check out the story on Chen Cai of Maranatha Christian High from The San Diego Union-Tribune, "High School Star Ineligible After Payments Revealed."
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Lincoln High's Norman Powell has committed to UCLA for basketball, in case you missed it. Powell is among a disturbingly large number of local star athletes who listed San Diego State as their second choice, something that Aztec officials need to correct.
Math says that if the Padres are within three games of the Giants by the time they fly to San Francisco, they'll still have a chance. Reality is the Padres better beat the Cubs Wednesday night because time is running out on them. They are not only losing ground to the Giants, but also the Braves in the wildcard race.
Chris Young will be on the mound, which will give the Friars a solid shot at winning. The trouble is, it doesn't matter who is toeing the slab for Chicago because the home team can't hit its way out of a paper bag. In the final homestand of the season, the Padres have are 2-3, and now have to win the last two for a winning record over the key seven games. In September, with a chance to wrap up a division title, the Padres are 11-15, with five of the wins over a Dodgers team that was out of it in more ways than one.
What burns me up is that fate has done its part, has been kind to the Padres. The Braves are only 12-14 this month, and while the Giants are 16-8 in September, the Friars had a chance to split the recent four-game series at Petco but blew the Friday 1-0 game.
Keep your fingers crossed.
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I'm sure I mentioned somewhere before my opinion that as beautiful a game as basketball is on the court, it is ugly off the court. The game is as sordid as boxing. Check out the story on Chen Cai of Maranatha Christian High from The San Diego Union-Tribune, "High School Star Ineligible After Payments Revealed."
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Lincoln High's Norman Powell has committed to UCLA for basketball, in case you missed it. Powell is among a disturbingly large number of local star athletes who listed San Diego State as their second choice, something that Aztec officials need to correct.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Reactions to Padres, Chargers, SDSU and USD Weekend
Throw out Sunday's 12-2 loss by the Padres to Cincinnati. Those games happen. Otherwise, the grand plan laid out here a week ago has gone pretty well. The Braves struggled against both the Phillies and the Nationals while the Giants and Rockies beat each other up. As it ended in the Giants favor, the Rockies are left hoping for a miracle. Now, barring a collapse against the Cubs this week, the Padres will go into San Francisco next weekend with a chance to win the division and, if they fall short, make the playoffs as a wildcard. You really can't ask for anything more.
Despite what happened Sunday, the Padres still won the series and did so in exciting fashion, winning games the way they did earlier in the season, with patient at-bats, smart base running and timely hitting -- along with starting pitching just good enough to get the game to the bullpen. They'll be in good shape if they keep that up.
What I don't like about the Padres right now is that if they make it to AT&T Park with a chance to clinch, they are going to be hampered by the poor condition of their starting rotation. Jon Garland was wrong. Manager Bud Black did not wear out the relief pitchers. It was the starters, including Garland at times, who have faded down the stretch. Seriously, who makes you feel comfortable taking the mound right now, especially with the Giants starters slamming the door on everyone?
Phenom Mat Latos? He's lost his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs over 10 innings. There's talk of pitching coach Darren Balsely finding a mechanical flaw, so maybe a correction will get him back on track.
Garland? He's lost four of his last five decisions, only once because his teammates can't hit.
Clayton Richard? He's also lost four of his last five decisions, including Sunday. The stretch includes his worst outing of the season.
Chris Young? Now you're talking, but his two starts since returning from injury have covered only nine innings.
Tim Stauffer? If the Padres win the division, his starts this month will make him one of the heroes, but having him in a pressure-packed situation will be interesting. If he gets a start in the Bay Area, he held the Giants to no runs and three hits recently at Petco.
Maybe they can have the starters limited to four innings each this week unless they're really doing well and turn it directly over to the pen (that's a joke, but remember that good sarcasm is rooted in truth).
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Don't panic, Chargers fans!
I know you've heard this before, that it is only September and the Bolts always start slowly under coach Norv Turner. It has been true, but the past performance of always turning things around in October to go on to win the division does not guarantee future results. Still, the way the Chargers lost in Seattle, 27-20 on Sunday, makes me feel like we're simply watching a re-run and everything will be okay very soon.
The visitors screwed things up about as much as they possibly could have, from allowing two kickoff returns for touchdowns to not getting plays called on time resulting in penalties to fumbles. This is not a team that got steamrolled. They out-gained the Seahawks 377-26 in the second half, and would have allowed the home team just a field goal without those kickoff returns by Leon Washington.
Ugly, ugly game, but it had nothing to do with talent on the field. It had everything to do with mistakes that can be ironed out and, hopefully, will by Sunday when they host a pretty weak Arizona team. Fortunately, it will be three days into October by game time.
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Two things stood out from San Diego State's 41-7 crunching of Utah State Saturday.
First was the defense. If Dominique Sandifer caught a punt deep in his own territory in the third quarter, instead of dropping it, then the Aztecs would have pitched shutouts in their first two home games of the season. Couple that with a strong final three quarters at Missouri and the defense looks like it is coming around, no matter the opponent.
Second, you'll have to trust me that Utah State is not nearly as bad as they looked. The Aggies were clearly both dispirited and undermanned by a terrible spate of injuries that had them playing youngsters at cornerback, running back and other positions who simply shouldn't have been on the field. That said, Diondre Borel is one of the best QBs the Aztecs will face all year. He simply had ZERO help. Too many of the players who helped the Aggies stay within seven points to Oklahoma in Norman were unavailable.
Fans will tell you SDSU has turned the corner under head coach Brady Hoke. The program is unquestionably rounding the bend but the building process still has a ways to go. The Aztecs needed to convert a 4th & 1, using a brilliant fake dive and scoring pass to TE Bryce Quigley, a fake field goal and busted coverage to run the score up on the Aggies. As well as the defense played, the offense sagged once a 28-0 second quarter lead was built as it seemed they started to play down to the level of their opponent. The running game, so good the first three games, averaged less than four yards per carry. Ronnie Hillman, who is likened to Marshall Faulk and not without reason, gained "only" 89 yards with a long of just 15 yards. He also made two freshman runs in which he started one way and then unwisely gave up ground while searching for a non-existent hole, losing five yards both times. The offensive line, so much improved this year over what we've become used to, still needs to improve some.
The best part offensively is how offensive coordinator Al Borges has enough weapons to make opposing defenses pay for their choices. At New Mexico State and Missouri, the Aggies and Tigers concentrated on slowing WRs Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, allowing Hillman to build his star status. Utah State keyed on Hillman, so QB Ryan Lindley went over the top to Brown for TDs of 65 and 82 yards and passed for 362 yards. The next opponent, BYU, probably has enough on defense to slow both Hillman and the wideouts, but can they also stop the tight ends. Borges has to feel like a kid in a giant toy box.
Just how far along the curve the Aztecs are will be learned by mid-October. The Aztecs have a well-time, pre-Mountain West Conference bye before traveling to BYU and coming home to face Air Force. The Y is just 1-3 but is still BYU. They play the Aggies next, so won't have that extra week to recover from a horrid start. The Falcons appear to be quite good again, but were lucky to beat Wyoming in Laramie.
The Aztecs are getting to the point where their line play and skill talent can be competitive with the better teams in the MWC. Playing like it is another step to take, and the time to do so is coming.
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Perhaps those routs at the hands of Azusa-Pacific, Southern Utah and UC Davis did USD some good. Finally playing at their true level, the Toreros blasted Butler 24-0 behind a voracious defense that yielded only 91 total yards. The defenders intercepted a pass, claimed a fumble and sacked Bulldog QBs four times.
Stability helps, too. With the QB job now in the hands of well-traveled transfer Mason Mills, the passing game netted nearly 200 yards and six players caught at least two passes. USD travels to Jacksonville next week, not to be confused with the highly ranked Jacksonville State FCS team that upset Mississippi. Fortunately.
Despite what happened Sunday, the Padres still won the series and did so in exciting fashion, winning games the way they did earlier in the season, with patient at-bats, smart base running and timely hitting -- along with starting pitching just good enough to get the game to the bullpen. They'll be in good shape if they keep that up.
What I don't like about the Padres right now is that if they make it to AT&T Park with a chance to clinch, they are going to be hampered by the poor condition of their starting rotation. Jon Garland was wrong. Manager Bud Black did not wear out the relief pitchers. It was the starters, including Garland at times, who have faded down the stretch. Seriously, who makes you feel comfortable taking the mound right now, especially with the Giants starters slamming the door on everyone?
Phenom Mat Latos? He's lost his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs over 10 innings. There's talk of pitching coach Darren Balsely finding a mechanical flaw, so maybe a correction will get him back on track.
Garland? He's lost four of his last five decisions, only once because his teammates can't hit.
Clayton Richard? He's also lost four of his last five decisions, including Sunday. The stretch includes his worst outing of the season.
Chris Young? Now you're talking, but his two starts since returning from injury have covered only nine innings.
Tim Stauffer? If the Padres win the division, his starts this month will make him one of the heroes, but having him in a pressure-packed situation will be interesting. If he gets a start in the Bay Area, he held the Giants to no runs and three hits recently at Petco.
Maybe they can have the starters limited to four innings each this week unless they're really doing well and turn it directly over to the pen (that's a joke, but remember that good sarcasm is rooted in truth).
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Don't panic, Chargers fans!
I know you've heard this before, that it is only September and the Bolts always start slowly under coach Norv Turner. It has been true, but the past performance of always turning things around in October to go on to win the division does not guarantee future results. Still, the way the Chargers lost in Seattle, 27-20 on Sunday, makes me feel like we're simply watching a re-run and everything will be okay very soon.
The visitors screwed things up about as much as they possibly could have, from allowing two kickoff returns for touchdowns to not getting plays called on time resulting in penalties to fumbles. This is not a team that got steamrolled. They out-gained the Seahawks 377-26 in the second half, and would have allowed the home team just a field goal without those kickoff returns by Leon Washington.
Ugly, ugly game, but it had nothing to do with talent on the field. It had everything to do with mistakes that can be ironed out and, hopefully, will by Sunday when they host a pretty weak Arizona team. Fortunately, it will be three days into October by game time.
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Two things stood out from San Diego State's 41-7 crunching of Utah State Saturday.
First was the defense. If Dominique Sandifer caught a punt deep in his own territory in the third quarter, instead of dropping it, then the Aztecs would have pitched shutouts in their first two home games of the season. Couple that with a strong final three quarters at Missouri and the defense looks like it is coming around, no matter the opponent.
Second, you'll have to trust me that Utah State is not nearly as bad as they looked. The Aggies were clearly both dispirited and undermanned by a terrible spate of injuries that had them playing youngsters at cornerback, running back and other positions who simply shouldn't have been on the field. That said, Diondre Borel is one of the best QBs the Aztecs will face all year. He simply had ZERO help. Too many of the players who helped the Aggies stay within seven points to Oklahoma in Norman were unavailable.
Fans will tell you SDSU has turned the corner under head coach Brady Hoke. The program is unquestionably rounding the bend but the building process still has a ways to go. The Aztecs needed to convert a 4th & 1, using a brilliant fake dive and scoring pass to TE Bryce Quigley, a fake field goal and busted coverage to run the score up on the Aggies. As well as the defense played, the offense sagged once a 28-0 second quarter lead was built as it seemed they started to play down to the level of their opponent. The running game, so good the first three games, averaged less than four yards per carry. Ronnie Hillman, who is likened to Marshall Faulk and not without reason, gained "only" 89 yards with a long of just 15 yards. He also made two freshman runs in which he started one way and then unwisely gave up ground while searching for a non-existent hole, losing five yards both times. The offensive line, so much improved this year over what we've become used to, still needs to improve some.
The best part offensively is how offensive coordinator Al Borges has enough weapons to make opposing defenses pay for their choices. At New Mexico State and Missouri, the Aggies and Tigers concentrated on slowing WRs Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, allowing Hillman to build his star status. Utah State keyed on Hillman, so QB Ryan Lindley went over the top to Brown for TDs of 65 and 82 yards and passed for 362 yards. The next opponent, BYU, probably has enough on defense to slow both Hillman and the wideouts, but can they also stop the tight ends. Borges has to feel like a kid in a giant toy box.
Just how far along the curve the Aztecs are will be learned by mid-October. The Aztecs have a well-time, pre-Mountain West Conference bye before traveling to BYU and coming home to face Air Force. The Y is just 1-3 but is still BYU. They play the Aggies next, so won't have that extra week to recover from a horrid start. The Falcons appear to be quite good again, but were lucky to beat Wyoming in Laramie.
The Aztecs are getting to the point where their line play and skill talent can be competitive with the better teams in the MWC. Playing like it is another step to take, and the time to do so is coming.
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Perhaps those routs at the hands of Azusa-Pacific, Southern Utah and UC Davis did USD some good. Finally playing at their true level, the Toreros blasted Butler 24-0 behind a voracious defense that yielded only 91 total yards. The defenders intercepted a pass, claimed a fumble and sacked Bulldog QBs four times.
Stability helps, too. With the QB job now in the hands of well-traveled transfer Mason Mills, the passing game netted nearly 200 yards and six players caught at least two passes. USD travels to Jacksonville next week, not to be confused with the highly ranked Jacksonville State FCS team that upset Mississippi. Fortunately.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Notes on Padres, Aztecs, Chargers
It could be a playoff preview this weekend as the Cincinnati Reds come to Petco Park. There are still so many possibilities of how things might work out between who wins the NL West, whether the wildcard comes from this division or the NL East, and simply whether the Padres make it into the post-season at all. But it will be interesting to see how the locals stack up, because they didn't look so hot vs. the Phillies a few weeks ago...1B Adrian Gonzalez has only two extra-base hits and two RBI since his multi-homer game in Denver more than a week ago...As long as I'm banging on Adrian, how about Ryan Ludwick? Brought to the Friars to add some pop to the lineup, his paltry .353 slugging percentage since arriving ranks tied for 9th, barely above the mark posted by diminutive 2B David Eckstein. He's no longer in my lineup...I'm not sure SS Miguel Tejada is deserving of all the kudos in the morning paper for his defensive prowess but, overall, he is the best the Padres have at the position so I would welcome him back next year...Speaking of the U-T, they chided play-by-play man Dick Enberg for suggesting Eck was the team MVP. I agree with Enberg. You see what happened to the Pads when Eckstein got hurt, and as good as Adrian has been this season, his power numbers are down and his inconsistency is up. He's gone weeks between producing power several times in 2010...I've also bagged on Will Venable a lot, but he is 14-for-23 in the past week, though only two of the hits have gone for extra bases and none have left the yard.
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That 27-24 loss by San Diego State at Missouri still tears me up, mainly because the blame falls squarely on the lap of a coaching staff far too experienced to let something like an illegal substitution foul happen when they can basically wrap up the first road win over a BCS opponent since 1999. However, coach Brady Hoke has taken responsibility and appears to have his staff and players on the proper course...A lot has been made of past years when SDSU went into a major opponent's house and barely fell short of an upset, sending fans toward wild expectations before stumbling back to earth with bad subsequent games. In 2008, after leading a pretty sorry excuse for a Notre Dame team in the fourth quarter, the Aztecs got blown out a week later at San Jose State. In 2006, after a strong defensive showing at Wisconsin, the Aztecs lost three more in a row and were uncompetitive in each. In 2004, after knocking current Padres P Clayton Richard on his butt in a three-point loss at Michigan, the Aztecs returned to handily beat Nevada. In 2003, after the infamous three-point loss at defending national champion Ohio State, the Aztecs won two games easily before playing UCLA tough in Pasadena. History does not uphold the theory when Chuck Long is not your nightmare, uh, coach. We'll now find out how they respond under Hoke because Utah State, while battered by injuries, is a pretty good team. QB Diondre Borel is what the national media always wanted Washington QB Jake Locker to be...Neil Spencer returning from a series of tragedies to win the starting job at DT this week is one of the best stories of the year...So Ronnie Hillman scores on runs of 75 and 93 yards at Missouri. The coolest thing, while maybe illegal, was C Trask Iosefa spinning the freshman out of a tackle and sending him on his way to the second score. However, the best thing from a long-term perspective was that on each score he eluded a Tiger tackler who dove at his feet from behind -- and didn't even have to turn his head to do so. He seems to have some sort of sixth sense of where tacklers are and how to avoid them. How many times have you seen guys on long runs get tripped up by a fingernail? I don't think you'll see that too often from Hillman.
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Please, for the love of God, no more newspaper articles about Vincent Jackson until he either reports or gets traded...I'm not seeing much about the Seahawks that can stop the Chargers this weekend other than possible rain. Really, this is a football team bereft of stars and they have a revolving door at LT because their ONE name offensive player, Russell Okung, is injured...Sure, Hassleback is a name player but he's not one of the top NFL QBs...Look for another huge game by TE Antonio Gates...With top draft pick RB Ryan Mathews out with an injury Sunday, Mike Tolbert has been named the starter, but in reality, look for the Bolts to go to the air and handle the ball carrying by committee. The Seahawks run defense looks improved...Cason! Are you for real? Let's hope so. Wow!
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That 27-24 loss by San Diego State at Missouri still tears me up, mainly because the blame falls squarely on the lap of a coaching staff far too experienced to let something like an illegal substitution foul happen when they can basically wrap up the first road win over a BCS opponent since 1999. However, coach Brady Hoke has taken responsibility and appears to have his staff and players on the proper course...A lot has been made of past years when SDSU went into a major opponent's house and barely fell short of an upset, sending fans toward wild expectations before stumbling back to earth with bad subsequent games. In 2008, after leading a pretty sorry excuse for a Notre Dame team in the fourth quarter, the Aztecs got blown out a week later at San Jose State. In 2006, after a strong defensive showing at Wisconsin, the Aztecs lost three more in a row and were uncompetitive in each. In 2004, after knocking current Padres P Clayton Richard on his butt in a three-point loss at Michigan, the Aztecs returned to handily beat Nevada. In 2003, after the infamous three-point loss at defending national champion Ohio State, the Aztecs won two games easily before playing UCLA tough in Pasadena. History does not uphold the theory when Chuck Long is not your nightmare, uh, coach. We'll now find out how they respond under Hoke because Utah State, while battered by injuries, is a pretty good team. QB Diondre Borel is what the national media always wanted Washington QB Jake Locker to be...Neil Spencer returning from a series of tragedies to win the starting job at DT this week is one of the best stories of the year...So Ronnie Hillman scores on runs of 75 and 93 yards at Missouri. The coolest thing, while maybe illegal, was C Trask Iosefa spinning the freshman out of a tackle and sending him on his way to the second score. However, the best thing from a long-term perspective was that on each score he eluded a Tiger tackler who dove at his feet from behind -- and didn't even have to turn his head to do so. He seems to have some sort of sixth sense of where tacklers are and how to avoid them. How many times have you seen guys on long runs get tripped up by a fingernail? I don't think you'll see that too often from Hillman.
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Please, for the love of God, no more newspaper articles about Vincent Jackson until he either reports or gets traded...I'm not seeing much about the Seahawks that can stop the Chargers this weekend other than possible rain. Really, this is a football team bereft of stars and they have a revolving door at LT because their ONE name offensive player, Russell Okung, is injured...Sure, Hassleback is a name player but he's not one of the top NFL QBs...Look for another huge game by TE Antonio Gates...With top draft pick RB Ryan Mathews out with an injury Sunday, Mike Tolbert has been named the starter, but in reality, look for the Bolts to go to the air and handle the ball carrying by committee. The Seahawks run defense looks improved...Cason! Are you for real? Let's hope so. Wow!
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Not So-Quick Chargers Reaction vs Jacksonville
Nothing like home-cooking and an extra week of in-season reality to fashion up a win. The Chargers 38-13 was what we hoped to see in the first place -- and with the blackout something most of us still haven't ... Noting, however, that Kansas City won again to go to 2-0. Okay, it was Cleveland, but it was a road win in the NFL ... We all knew the Bolts found a replacement for LT. We just didn't know it would be Mike Tolbert ... As for injured err-apparent Ryan Mathews, the Hall of Fame is full of guys who had crummy starts to their pro careers ... I like the collection of six turnovers, but not the giving away of three of their own ... Darren Sproles had just 12 touches between carries, receptions and kick returns. I think there needs to be a few more ... A split decision for Larry English-haters. No tackles but he got in on a sack ... Seattle is next, a 1-1 team after losing at Denver by 17 points.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Quick SDSU-Missouri Reaction
They weren't good enough.
As heartbreaking as the ending of San Diego State's 27-24 loss at Missouri was, the fact is the Aztecs were fortunate to even be close at the end. Close they were, thanks to amazing scoring runs of 75 and 93 yards from freshman RB Ronnie Hillman, and fourth quarter interceptions by S Darryn Lewis and CB Leon McFadden.
But in the final four minutes or so, they couldn't make the plays they needed to put the Tigers away, and MU turned a short pass into a long game-winning touchdown. The Aztecs had their chances, having the ball three times deep in Missouri territory late in the game and only coming away with a field goal. The first time, SDSU had a second and goal at the Tigers' three and QB Ryan Lindley threw an interception.
That's where things broke down in Columbia. The upperclassmen I wrote about on Friday, who had a chance to come through, didn't the entire game. Lindley went a second straight contest completing less than half his passes and has not shed his penchant for horrible, game-changing turnovers. WR Vincent Brown was blanketed by the Missouri defense and was a non-factor. WR DeMarco Sampson made some big catches early in the game but was then stuffed. The offensive line created some huge holes at times, didn't make any holes too often and mostly pass-blocked well.
The defense played very well in the second half, save for one or two plays, and their development will bear watching.
The offense, however, needs serious soul-searching. Lindley has not been on the same page with Brown and Sampson for two straight weeks. They could not sustain drives in Columbia. I suspect they will be able to against most of the teams they will play in the future, but they are still in no condition to be playing the likes of Utah or TCU.
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Kudos to Hillman for his 230 yards, but 168 came on two plays. Two awesome runs, though...The other near-hero was P Brian Stahovich, who averaged 45 yards per boot, had a long of 67 and pinned Missouri inside the 20 three times...As bad as the loss was, they could be New Mexico, which was down 56-14 to Utah in the fourth quarter as of this writing, or Colorado State, which lost 31-10 to Miami (Ohio, not Florida).
As heartbreaking as the ending of San Diego State's 27-24 loss at Missouri was, the fact is the Aztecs were fortunate to even be close at the end. Close they were, thanks to amazing scoring runs of 75 and 93 yards from freshman RB Ronnie Hillman, and fourth quarter interceptions by S Darryn Lewis and CB Leon McFadden.
But in the final four minutes or so, they couldn't make the plays they needed to put the Tigers away, and MU turned a short pass into a long game-winning touchdown. The Aztecs had their chances, having the ball three times deep in Missouri territory late in the game and only coming away with a field goal. The first time, SDSU had a second and goal at the Tigers' three and QB Ryan Lindley threw an interception.
That's where things broke down in Columbia. The upperclassmen I wrote about on Friday, who had a chance to come through, didn't the entire game. Lindley went a second straight contest completing less than half his passes and has not shed his penchant for horrible, game-changing turnovers. WR Vincent Brown was blanketed by the Missouri defense and was a non-factor. WR DeMarco Sampson made some big catches early in the game but was then stuffed. The offensive line created some huge holes at times, didn't make any holes too often and mostly pass-blocked well.
The defense played very well in the second half, save for one or two plays, and their development will bear watching.
The offense, however, needs serious soul-searching. Lindley has not been on the same page with Brown and Sampson for two straight weeks. They could not sustain drives in Columbia. I suspect they will be able to against most of the teams they will play in the future, but they are still in no condition to be playing the likes of Utah or TCU.
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Kudos to Hillman for his 230 yards, but 168 came on two plays. Two awesome runs, though...The other near-hero was P Brian Stahovich, who averaged 45 yards per boot, had a long of 67 and pinned Missouri inside the 20 three times...As bad as the loss was, they could be New Mexico, which was down 56-14 to Utah in the fourth quarter as of this writing, or Colorado State, which lost 31-10 to Miami (Ohio, not Florida).
Friday, September 17, 2010
Padres in Second, Chargers Blackout, Aztecs
Having the local baseball team suddenly known as "the second place Padres" does not concern me too much, since the ultimate goal of the regular season is to make the playoffs. A division title would be nice, but being the bridesmaid is nearly as good as long as you're the prettiest of the three.
In that regard, much has been made of the easy schedule the now-first place Giants have the rest of the season. While I have not given up on the Padres chances to actually win the NL West, it is important not to lose sight of the wildcard situation, and no one I know of has checked out the remainder of the season for the Braves.
Atlanta starts Friday a half-game in front of the Padres and are in the midst of a three-game weekend series at New York. The Braves then play three in Philadelphia and three in Washington -- and it should be noted the Nationals took two of three at Turner Field earlier this week. They are then home for the final week, with three against the Marlins and three vs. the Phillies in what could be a division showdown. That is no easy road, especially with the Phils on another hot streak.
The Giants, as you probably know, are currently home for three against Milwaukee, then travel to Chicago and Denver before ending the regular season at AT&T Park against the Diamondbacks and Padres. Manager Bruce Bochy's team looks like a good bet to be playing baseball after the first weekend of October.
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P Chris Young's start at St. Louis Saturday is huge. If he's on, then the starting rotation might hold together to the end of the season.
---
There is no one overarching reason why the Chargers didn't sell out its home opener vs. Jacksonville on Sunday. I think nearly every reason mentioned has merit, from disappointment in last season's playoff loss to the way the off-season was handled. Three reasons clearly stand out to me:
1. The economy. The fact is if you're emotionally invested in the Chargers, you're going to go to the games no matter what happens to your bank account. You'll give up the Starbucks lattes and Friday evening happy hours to save money for football if you need to. However, lack of money will push the rock over the ledge if you're unhappy with the result of the playoff game, hating AJ Smith or missing LT.
2. It doesn't matter. Despite what happened in Kansas City, you know the Chargers are going to win the AFC West. Anything that happens now is merely a prelude to January, so why not save yourself for when it really counts? You can be like an NBA or hockey fan.
3. Television coverage. I actually like this self-defeating reason raised Thursday by Ben Higgins on XTRA 1360. Television coverage of NFL football games is now at such a high level that, while different, it's just as good as being there. In fact, I was shocked at what at times seemed to be only two-camera coverage of the San Diego State game at New Mexico State last week, in comparing the quality. You turn on the TV for a sports event, and you expect a crystal clear picture, tight zooms that can focus on a freckle and isolations on everyone down to the water boy. Why go when you can watch it on TV? Until you can't. Now you can't.
There are always complaints about the cost of tickets, parking and concessions, but there always have been. Wait until they move into a new downtown stadium. If the Chargers prices go up at the same rate the Padres' did, you'll need to take out a second mortgage for season seats. Such a move could also exacerbate the team's attendance problems. The NFL has been the corporate league for decades now, and San Diego really doesn't have many major corporations outside Qualcomm, Petco and Sharp Healthcare.
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I have no idea what San Diego State will do at Missouri on Saturday. I know the Aztecs are building from below, with younger players beginning to move into key roles on the team. I can tell they're good players and, with their youth, I don't care that they're only proving themselves against cupcakes.
The Missouri game, however, is all about the upperclassmen. Have Brady Hoke, his assistant coaches and ballyhooed strength coach Aaron Wellman done enough to make the kids who have been here for up to five years competitive with a good Big 12 team?
Can QB Ryan Lindley, WRs Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, C Trask Iosefa and RT Kurtis Gunther put up a lot of points against a good team? The offense scored 61 points against their four quality opponents in 2009, nearly half of them in one game vs BYU. In 2008, it was 46 points against four top opponents. That didn't get it done and won't in 2010.
Defensively, can guys who have been around awhile like DE Ernie Lawson, LBs Marcus Yarbrough and Miles Burris, CB Jose Perez and Aztec Andrew Preston step up and keep the game winnable? Those four games last year and the year before saw the defenders allow 174 points (the lowest total being 33 to UCLA and a couple Bruins TDs were gifts) and 166 points (63 in one game to Utah).
If improvement is being made on both sides of the ball, we'll see it Saturday from the upperclassmen. The results will let us know more what to expect when the Air Force, BYU, TCU and Utah games come around.
In that regard, much has been made of the easy schedule the now-first place Giants have the rest of the season. While I have not given up on the Padres chances to actually win the NL West, it is important not to lose sight of the wildcard situation, and no one I know of has checked out the remainder of the season for the Braves.
Atlanta starts Friday a half-game in front of the Padres and are in the midst of a three-game weekend series at New York. The Braves then play three in Philadelphia and three in Washington -- and it should be noted the Nationals took two of three at Turner Field earlier this week. They are then home for the final week, with three against the Marlins and three vs. the Phillies in what could be a division showdown. That is no easy road, especially with the Phils on another hot streak.
The Giants, as you probably know, are currently home for three against Milwaukee, then travel to Chicago and Denver before ending the regular season at AT&T Park against the Diamondbacks and Padres. Manager Bruce Bochy's team looks like a good bet to be playing baseball after the first weekend of October.
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P Chris Young's start at St. Louis Saturday is huge. If he's on, then the starting rotation might hold together to the end of the season.
---
There is no one overarching reason why the Chargers didn't sell out its home opener vs. Jacksonville on Sunday. I think nearly every reason mentioned has merit, from disappointment in last season's playoff loss to the way the off-season was handled. Three reasons clearly stand out to me:
1. The economy. The fact is if you're emotionally invested in the Chargers, you're going to go to the games no matter what happens to your bank account. You'll give up the Starbucks lattes and Friday evening happy hours to save money for football if you need to. However, lack of money will push the rock over the ledge if you're unhappy with the result of the playoff game, hating AJ Smith or missing LT.
2. It doesn't matter. Despite what happened in Kansas City, you know the Chargers are going to win the AFC West. Anything that happens now is merely a prelude to January, so why not save yourself for when it really counts? You can be like an NBA or hockey fan.
3. Television coverage. I actually like this self-defeating reason raised Thursday by Ben Higgins on XTRA 1360. Television coverage of NFL football games is now at such a high level that, while different, it's just as good as being there. In fact, I was shocked at what at times seemed to be only two-camera coverage of the San Diego State game at New Mexico State last week, in comparing the quality. You turn on the TV for a sports event, and you expect a crystal clear picture, tight zooms that can focus on a freckle and isolations on everyone down to the water boy. Why go when you can watch it on TV? Until you can't. Now you can't.
There are always complaints about the cost of tickets, parking and concessions, but there always have been. Wait until they move into a new downtown stadium. If the Chargers prices go up at the same rate the Padres' did, you'll need to take out a second mortgage for season seats. Such a move could also exacerbate the team's attendance problems. The NFL has been the corporate league for decades now, and San Diego really doesn't have many major corporations outside Qualcomm, Petco and Sharp Healthcare.
---
I have no idea what San Diego State will do at Missouri on Saturday. I know the Aztecs are building from below, with younger players beginning to move into key roles on the team. I can tell they're good players and, with their youth, I don't care that they're only proving themselves against cupcakes.
The Missouri game, however, is all about the upperclassmen. Have Brady Hoke, his assistant coaches and ballyhooed strength coach Aaron Wellman done enough to make the kids who have been here for up to five years competitive with a good Big 12 team?
Can QB Ryan Lindley, WRs Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, C Trask Iosefa and RT Kurtis Gunther put up a lot of points against a good team? The offense scored 61 points against their four quality opponents in 2009, nearly half of them in one game vs BYU. In 2008, it was 46 points against four top opponents. That didn't get it done and won't in 2010.
Defensively, can guys who have been around awhile like DE Ernie Lawson, LBs Marcus Yarbrough and Miles Burris, CB Jose Perez and Aztec Andrew Preston step up and keep the game winnable? Those four games last year and the year before saw the defenders allow 174 points (the lowest total being 33 to UCLA and a couple Bruins TDs were gifts) and 166 points (63 in one game to Utah).
If improvement is being made on both sides of the ball, we'll see it Saturday from the upperclassmen. The results will let us know more what to expect when the Air Force, BYU, TCU and Utah games come around.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Chargers vs. Chiefs Quick Reaction
Football teams can be defined by their strengths or their weaknesses, and at least for the first week of the NFL season, the Chargers will be defined by their weaknesses. It's a long season, and things should get much better, but who wasn't wearing white jerseys made a massive impact in Monday night's 21-14 loss to the Jets.
-- RB LaDainian Tomlinson played fairly well for the Jets, and Ryan Mathews did nothing to make us forget him, and he didn't come in again after knocking the ball out of QB Philip Rivers hands in the fourth quarter -- and it looked like he might have hurt his fingers on the play.
-- WR Vincent Jackson would have caught the key fourth quarter pass dropped by Legedu Naanee, don't you think? It stopped a drive on fourth down, and came after he ridiculously showboated on a TD catch.
-- How about a fine performance by LT Brandyn Dombrowski, subbing for Marcus McNeill? Just as you're thinking, wow, he's doing a fine job, he lets a defender leak through and blow up a play. That's the NFL for you.
-- For all the talk about the holdouts, the Chargers also let special teams monster Kassim Osgood get away during the off-season, and paid for it by Dexter McCluster's 94-yard punt return for the winning TD.
Reality is that a team that probably shouldn't be any good until late this season defeated a squad that should run away with the AFC West.
The check on the Chargers: they held the ball for more than 37 minutes and scored just twice, they had a 1st & goal at the KC four at the end and couldn't punch it in, they nearly doubled the Chiefs yardage total and lost, they allowed the Chiefs 5.2 yards per carry.
Once again, the Chargers start a season slowly.
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Meanwhile, Tomlinson ran for 62 yards on 11 carries and also caught a couple passes for the Jets in their 10-9 loss to the Ravens. The big news was the Jets inability to convert third downs, but Tomlinson only handled the ball on one of those failures.
-- RB LaDainian Tomlinson played fairly well for the Jets, and Ryan Mathews did nothing to make us forget him, and he didn't come in again after knocking the ball out of QB Philip Rivers hands in the fourth quarter -- and it looked like he might have hurt his fingers on the play.
-- WR Vincent Jackson would have caught the key fourth quarter pass dropped by Legedu Naanee, don't you think? It stopped a drive on fourth down, and came after he ridiculously showboated on a TD catch.
-- How about a fine performance by LT Brandyn Dombrowski, subbing for Marcus McNeill? Just as you're thinking, wow, he's doing a fine job, he lets a defender leak through and blow up a play. That's the NFL for you.
-- For all the talk about the holdouts, the Chargers also let special teams monster Kassim Osgood get away during the off-season, and paid for it by Dexter McCluster's 94-yard punt return for the winning TD.
Reality is that a team that probably shouldn't be any good until late this season defeated a squad that should run away with the AFC West.
The check on the Chargers: they held the ball for more than 37 minutes and scored just twice, they had a 1st & goal at the KC four at the end and couldn't punch it in, they nearly doubled the Chiefs yardage total and lost, they allowed the Chiefs 5.2 yards per carry.
Once again, the Chargers start a season slowly.
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Meanwhile, Tomlinson ran for 62 yards on 11 carries and also caught a couple passes for the Jets in their 10-9 loss to the Ravens. The big news was the Jets inability to convert third downs, but Tomlinson only handled the ball on one of those failures.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
SDSU and USD Reaction
One of the best things about San Diego State's 2-0 start is the Aztecs really haven't played very well. In Saturday night's 41-21 win at New Mexico State, the defense allowed a couple of big plays for touchdowns, the offense couldn't convert in the red zone in the first half and QB Ryan Lindley hit the side of a barn door.
Yet, they over-matched an opponent for the second straight week despite all that, and they are going to get better as the season goes on. The defense is playing a lot of new players, redshirt freshmen and true freshmen, so there will be some coverage breakdowns. The offense did convert in the second half, and Lindley -- who is prone to bad games out of nowhere -- hopefully got the one for 2010 out of his system. He was 20-43, though he did throw for more than 300 yards for the second straight game.
The best part of the game for the Aztecs was how the running game wore down the Aggies in the second half. The offensive line opened some holes in the first half, but were really pounding in the final 30 minutes, allowing freshman RB Ronnie Hillman to have a huge game -- he scored four touchdowns and ran for 150 yards.
More kudos go to NT Jerome Long, who tied for the team lead in tackles with 8, including a sack, very rare for an interior lineman. Long was disruptive all night. The other really impressive players were G Nik Embernate, who keyed the second half blocking surge, and FB Brandon Sullivan, who nearly took a third down screen pass to the house and did a fine job with blocking.
Next comes Missouri. No longer will they over-match their opponent, so hopefully the Aztecs will be even sharper next week in Columbia.
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USD was on the other end of the over-match, losing 32-3e at Southern Utah. The Thunderbirds are a scholarship team and the Toreros, struggling to find a passing game, managed only a field-goal in the second quarter. It doesn't get any easier next week, with UC Davis coming to town.
Yet, they over-matched an opponent for the second straight week despite all that, and they are going to get better as the season goes on. The defense is playing a lot of new players, redshirt freshmen and true freshmen, so there will be some coverage breakdowns. The offense did convert in the second half, and Lindley -- who is prone to bad games out of nowhere -- hopefully got the one for 2010 out of his system. He was 20-43, though he did throw for more than 300 yards for the second straight game.
The best part of the game for the Aztecs was how the running game wore down the Aggies in the second half. The offensive line opened some holes in the first half, but were really pounding in the final 30 minutes, allowing freshman RB Ronnie Hillman to have a huge game -- he scored four touchdowns and ran for 150 yards.
More kudos go to NT Jerome Long, who tied for the team lead in tackles with 8, including a sack, very rare for an interior lineman. Long was disruptive all night. The other really impressive players were G Nik Embernate, who keyed the second half blocking surge, and FB Brandon Sullivan, who nearly took a third down screen pass to the house and did a fine job with blocking.
Next comes Missouri. No longer will they over-match their opponent, so hopefully the Aztecs will be even sharper next week in Columbia.
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USD was on the other end of the over-match, losing 32-3e at Southern Utah. The Thunderbirds are a scholarship team and the Toreros, struggling to find a passing game, managed only a field-goal in the second quarter. It doesn't get any easier next week, with UC Davis coming to town.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Chargers Have Questions and Time to Answer Them
Here's a sign that the Chargers are living right: they enter the 2010 season with more questions than they've had in years, yet are in almost no danger of losing the AFC West title or missing the playoffs, since the division is so bad (see previous post). How's that for a comfort level? If GM AJ Smith didn't have the holdouts to deal with, I'd say his blood pressure would be just about normal for a guy his age.
Seriously, playoff prospects would be very iffy for a team in any other division in the NFL with the number of questions that face the Chargers. Thankfully, for the fans, there is plenty of time to find answers before the post-season starts. I've heard talk show hosts saying the Bolts will be 6-0 by the time they host New England on Oct. 24. They could be, though I think 5-1 will be more likely. Still, thanks to the weakness of their opponents, they will have come close to clinching the AFC West by then. Funny.
My list of ??? follows:
-- How will the new-look offense fare? The front office thinks RB Ryan Mathews will be an upgrade over LaDainian Tomlinson, so look for coach Norv Turner to call a lot more running plays. Also, with Vincent Jackson reduced to playing catch at Mission Beach, don't look for as many deep pass routes. Will this work for these guys?
-- The offensive line is healthy across the board, something you couldn't say last year entering the season, and of course, things got much worse in the first half of the opener in Oakland. But are they better? Was it the run blocking or LT? And can they protect QB Philip Rivers? Part of the equation for fewer deep balls will be worries whether tackles Jeromey Clary and Brandyn Dombrowski can keep the passer upright.
-- Can C Nick Hardwick make it through the season? He's played all 16 games only once, in 2006, and managed only three in 2009.
-- Is Mathews a 20-carry per game kind of a guy who they want to make dominant, or will he split carries with Darren Sproles, Mike Tolbert and Jacob Hester? Maybe he's a 12-carry and three-swing pass player? We'll see.
-- Will Rivers have the same kind of trust in his teammates as he had in previous years, in terms of their ability to perform their functions? Will he know that Buster Davis will run the route correctly? Can he count on Mathews to pick up the blitzing linebacker? If not, will Mathews departure to the sideline signal to the opposing defensive coordinator that a pass is coming?
-- A lot of people have been down on young LB Larry English, but he's played only one season. Is 2010 when he blossoms when filling in for Shawne Merriman or are the questions about him legitimate?
-- Will Merriman prove to be a contributor or a distraction?
-- LB Shaun Phillips is the guy whose had a chance to prove himself, over six years, but his sack totals have declined the past three seasons and other numbers are down, as well. Did he thrive only in Merriman's shadow? Should active backup Antwan Applewhite play more downs?
-- Staying on the time to prove himself front, how about FS Eric Weddle? Or DE Luis Castillo?
-- Is CB Antoine Cason ready for full-time duty after mainly being a nickel back?
-- Will the Make-Shift work again at nose tackle without Jamal Williams?
Thems a lotta questions. We should start to make some tentative judgments by the end of the month.
Prediction time: I think we have a situation a lot like last year where the Chargers will be pretty good but will get pushed around by physical ball clubs. Unless nearly all the above questions are answered in a positive way over the next three months, the 2010 version of the Bolts will probably have a sparkling regular-season record but be a one-and-done playoff team.
Like I wrote above, I expect a 5-1 start up to the point when New England comes to town, and that's when things get dicey. The Patriots aren't what they used to be but will be better than the opponents faced by the Chargers up to that point. If nothing else, it signals a change in caliber of opposition that will either toughen them for the post-season or batter them into submission.
I see 9-7, and still easily winning the division, as the worst-case scenario. If everything works out, they could go 13-3 again. Unfortunately, I think it is more likely they lose a first playoff game than make the Super Bowl.
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It is way too early for a must-win game, but one should start to look good by the second game of a college season. San Diego State posted a 47-0 rout of over-matched Nicholls State last Saturday but didn't look ready for a Division 1 opponent. Now they have one, on the road, at New Mexico State, which will throw a solid defense against the Aztecs. College teams make their biggest jumps from Week One to Week Two. Let's hope SDSU makes its jump from a trampoline.
Seriously, playoff prospects would be very iffy for a team in any other division in the NFL with the number of questions that face the Chargers. Thankfully, for the fans, there is plenty of time to find answers before the post-season starts. I've heard talk show hosts saying the Bolts will be 6-0 by the time they host New England on Oct. 24. They could be, though I think 5-1 will be more likely. Still, thanks to the weakness of their opponents, they will have come close to clinching the AFC West by then. Funny.
My list of ??? follows:
-- How will the new-look offense fare? The front office thinks RB Ryan Mathews will be an upgrade over LaDainian Tomlinson, so look for coach Norv Turner to call a lot more running plays. Also, with Vincent Jackson reduced to playing catch at Mission Beach, don't look for as many deep pass routes. Will this work for these guys?
-- The offensive line is healthy across the board, something you couldn't say last year entering the season, and of course, things got much worse in the first half of the opener in Oakland. But are they better? Was it the run blocking or LT? And can they protect QB Philip Rivers? Part of the equation for fewer deep balls will be worries whether tackles Jeromey Clary and Brandyn Dombrowski can keep the passer upright.
-- Can C Nick Hardwick make it through the season? He's played all 16 games only once, in 2006, and managed only three in 2009.
-- Is Mathews a 20-carry per game kind of a guy who they want to make dominant, or will he split carries with Darren Sproles, Mike Tolbert and Jacob Hester? Maybe he's a 12-carry and three-swing pass player? We'll see.
-- Will Rivers have the same kind of trust in his teammates as he had in previous years, in terms of their ability to perform their functions? Will he know that Buster Davis will run the route correctly? Can he count on Mathews to pick up the blitzing linebacker? If not, will Mathews departure to the sideline signal to the opposing defensive coordinator that a pass is coming?
-- A lot of people have been down on young LB Larry English, but he's played only one season. Is 2010 when he blossoms when filling in for Shawne Merriman or are the questions about him legitimate?
-- Will Merriman prove to be a contributor or a distraction?
-- LB Shaun Phillips is the guy whose had a chance to prove himself, over six years, but his sack totals have declined the past three seasons and other numbers are down, as well. Did he thrive only in Merriman's shadow? Should active backup Antwan Applewhite play more downs?
-- Staying on the time to prove himself front, how about FS Eric Weddle? Or DE Luis Castillo?
-- Is CB Antoine Cason ready for full-time duty after mainly being a nickel back?
-- Will the Make-Shift work again at nose tackle without Jamal Williams?
Thems a lotta questions. We should start to make some tentative judgments by the end of the month.
Prediction time: I think we have a situation a lot like last year where the Chargers will be pretty good but will get pushed around by physical ball clubs. Unless nearly all the above questions are answered in a positive way over the next three months, the 2010 version of the Bolts will probably have a sparkling regular-season record but be a one-and-done playoff team.
Like I wrote above, I expect a 5-1 start up to the point when New England comes to town, and that's when things get dicey. The Patriots aren't what they used to be but will be better than the opponents faced by the Chargers up to that point. If nothing else, it signals a change in caliber of opposition that will either toughen them for the post-season or batter them into submission.
I see 9-7, and still easily winning the division, as the worst-case scenario. If everything works out, they could go 13-3 again. Unfortunately, I think it is more likely they lose a first playoff game than make the Super Bowl.
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It is way too early for a must-win game, but one should start to look good by the second game of a college season. San Diego State posted a 47-0 rout of over-matched Nicholls State last Saturday but didn't look ready for a Division 1 opponent. Now they have one, on the road, at New Mexico State, which will throw a solid defense against the Aztecs. College teams make their biggest jumps from Week One to Week Two. Let's hope SDSU makes its jump from a trampoline.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
AFC West Provides Cushion for Bolts; Padres Comments
There is no division in the NFL quite so putrid as the AFC West. In a season in which the Chargers start without key cogs at left tackle, receiver, running back, nose tackle and linebacker, there is still no threat to the Bolts' annual division title coming from Denver, Kansas City or Oakland.
The AFC West was worse than ever in 2009, when the Chargers wrapped up the division title in September -- I'm exaggerating, but only a little -- and none of the other teams finished above .500. In fact, the Raiders were 5-11 and the Chiefs 4-12. I think there will be some bottom-up improvement this fall. Going through each division rival's schedule, I came up with a 6-10 finish -- for all of them. It's just the way it worked out. What's more, the first half of the 2010 slate is going to kill each of them: I figured the Broncos and Chiefs will get out of the gate 2-6, the Raiders a kinder 3-5.
It is a struggle finding good news for these teams. Broncos fans are going bonkers over future president Tim Tebow. The trouble is, the first-round draft pick from Florida won't play much outside the Wildcat and a couple special packages. The Chiefs have more weapons around QB Matt Cassell. The Raiders finally have a decent QB in Jason Campbell and a defensive Rookie of the Year candidate in MLB Rolando McClain.
But that's it for the happy talk. Compare it to the bad news, which hit Denver hard with injuries. DE Elvis Dumervil and his 17 sacks will be sidelined all year. RB Knowshon Moreno has been hurt, and so have a bunch of other Broncos. The offensive line at Jacksonville on Sunday could start two rookies and Marian Catholic High's Stanley Daniels, a really nice guy who has played little since leaving the University of Washington.
In Kansas City, Cassell was sacked 42 times last year, one of the highest totals in the NFL, and as a result he threw 16 picks to go with his 16 TDs. He will be helped by young RB Jamaal Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe, but a youth movement really means only that it is going to be another year or so before things get moving the right way. There could be good things happening in Arrowhead Stadium in 2011, but this is 2010.
Oakland had one of the worst defenses against the run in the NFL, and merely gets to open the season against defending rushing champion Chris Johnson of Tennessee. That Campbell is an upgrade shows how bad the Raiders were at QB in recent years. In Washington, Campbell finished mid-pack in passing yards and QB rating. Here's how bad the offensive line might be: they drafted a guy from a small college and had him at backup left tackle most of training camp, then switched him in the late-going to center, where he won the job! Amazing.
So look for very slow starts for all these teams, with final records of 6-10 or thereabouts. The Chargers, again, will breeze.
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Thank God for the Dodgers. They came in at the right time. I don't know if the Padres are cured or not, but they found someone playing even worse ... Memo to Padres P Jon Garland: if you don't want to be pulled from a game early, pitch better ... I agree that P Mat Latos deserves to be in the NL Cy Young chatter after the season, more for his amazing consistency than his 14-5 record and 2.21 ERA. You still need wins, and I think he needs three more to challenge the front-runners for the award, who are Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals (17-10, 2.34), Roy Halladay of the Phillies (17-10, 2.36) and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies (18-6, 2.79).
The AFC West was worse than ever in 2009, when the Chargers wrapped up the division title in September -- I'm exaggerating, but only a little -- and none of the other teams finished above .500. In fact, the Raiders were 5-11 and the Chiefs 4-12. I think there will be some bottom-up improvement this fall. Going through each division rival's schedule, I came up with a 6-10 finish -- for all of them. It's just the way it worked out. What's more, the first half of the 2010 slate is going to kill each of them: I figured the Broncos and Chiefs will get out of the gate 2-6, the Raiders a kinder 3-5.
It is a struggle finding good news for these teams. Broncos fans are going bonkers over future president Tim Tebow. The trouble is, the first-round draft pick from Florida won't play much outside the Wildcat and a couple special packages. The Chiefs have more weapons around QB Matt Cassell. The Raiders finally have a decent QB in Jason Campbell and a defensive Rookie of the Year candidate in MLB Rolando McClain.
But that's it for the happy talk. Compare it to the bad news, which hit Denver hard with injuries. DE Elvis Dumervil and his 17 sacks will be sidelined all year. RB Knowshon Moreno has been hurt, and so have a bunch of other Broncos. The offensive line at Jacksonville on Sunday could start two rookies and Marian Catholic High's Stanley Daniels, a really nice guy who has played little since leaving the University of Washington.
In Kansas City, Cassell was sacked 42 times last year, one of the highest totals in the NFL, and as a result he threw 16 picks to go with his 16 TDs. He will be helped by young RB Jamaal Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe, but a youth movement really means only that it is going to be another year or so before things get moving the right way. There could be good things happening in Arrowhead Stadium in 2011, but this is 2010.
Oakland had one of the worst defenses against the run in the NFL, and merely gets to open the season against defending rushing champion Chris Johnson of Tennessee. That Campbell is an upgrade shows how bad the Raiders were at QB in recent years. In Washington, Campbell finished mid-pack in passing yards and QB rating. Here's how bad the offensive line might be: they drafted a guy from a small college and had him at backup left tackle most of training camp, then switched him in the late-going to center, where he won the job! Amazing.
So look for very slow starts for all these teams, with final records of 6-10 or thereabouts. The Chargers, again, will breeze.
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Thank God for the Dodgers. They came in at the right time. I don't know if the Padres are cured or not, but they found someone playing even worse ... Memo to Padres P Jon Garland: if you don't want to be pulled from a game early, pitch better ... I agree that P Mat Latos deserves to be in the NL Cy Young chatter after the season, more for his amazing consistency than his 14-5 record and 2.21 ERA. You still need wins, and I think he needs three more to challenge the front-runners for the award, who are Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals (17-10, 2.34), Roy Halladay of the Phillies (17-10, 2.36) and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies (18-6, 2.79).
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
San Diegans are Fresh Blood, Renewed Souls in NFL
Ahh, that new player smell! A number of players with San Diego connections are set to rise to the forefront in the NFL for the first time this season, and there is also a scent of renewal among a number of local veterans whose careers had been facing hard times.
As of now, it looks like renewal is bigger than the fresh and new, but we'll start with the latter. The top dog among them appears to be RB Arian Foster, who appears ready to become the feature back of the Houston Texans. Foster is a Mission Bay High product who was the primary ball-carrier for Tennessee but never really became a star in Knoxville. QB Josh Johnson, the former USD superstar, will start this weekend for Tampa Bay because of an injury to starter Josh Freeman, and who knows what can happen with a big performance? The other major newcomer is Lance Louis, who left San Diego State under criminal investigation for an assault in a team meeting room but is now set to start at G for the Chicago Bears. Life can lead you on a strange path.
The big news, though, ought to come from the veterans who will find themselves finally ready to fulfill expectations, or are in new places with big shoes to fill. The most microscopes will focus on San Francisco QB Alex Smith, who has had four average or worse seasons since the 49ers took him first in the NFL draft. The 'niners look like a potential division champ, but need the Helix High alumnus to get them there. All reports out of SF the past year or so have said he's finally ready, but injuries have slowed his progress. Now, if the offensive line can keep him alive, we'll see if he's ready for stardom.
Kirk Morrison has moved from the middle of the Oakland Raiders defense to the center of the Jacksonville Jaguars stoppers, who seem much happier to have him than his hometown employers ever did. The SDSU product is set to start for a LB corps that includes former Aztecs Russell Allen -- a Vista High alum slated to be the top backup -- and Freddy Keiaho, the former Colt who is on injured-reserve with a concussion.
For the Chargers, former Aztec offensive lineman Brandyn Dombrowski is set to play a major role for a unit that will be watched closely this season, and ex-SDSU LB Antwan Applewhite will hope his ability to make plays finally gets noticed by coaches, who really need to get him on the field more often.
Former SDSU T Chester Pitts, the longtime Texans starter and Super Bowl TV commercial star, might start in place of injured Russell Okung for the Seahawks for a couple of weeks. That is even though Pitts missed all the exhibition games because of injury. Khalif Barnes of Mount Miguel High will be the Raiders main backup at LT. G Stephen Neal (San Diego High) returns to the Patriots line after being hurt last year.
OTHER LOCAL HIGH SCHOOL PRODUCTS:
-- RB Reggie Bush of Helix High (New Orleans Saints)
-- LB Brandon Chillar of Carlsbad High (Green Bay Packers)
-- LB Travis Goethel of Vista High (Oakland Raiders)
-- CB Leon Hall of Vista High (Cincinnati Bengals)
-- WR Marcus Smith of Morse High (Baltimore Ravens)
-- WR Brett Swain of Carlsbad High and SDSU (Green Bay Packers)
-- LB Pisa Tinoisamoa of Vista High (Chicago Bears)
-- WR Roberto Wallace of Oceanside High and SDSU (Miami Dolphins)
-- RB Ricky Williams of Patrick Henry High (Miami Dolphins)
OTHER SAN DIEGO STATE PLAYERS
-- LB Heath Farwell (Minnesota Vikings)
-- RB Lynell Hamilton (New Orleans Saints)
-- WR Kassim Osgood (Jacksonville Jaguars)
-- WR Chaz Schilens (Oakland Raiders)
By the way, Hamilton is on IR and Schilens might miss the first couple of months with another injury. More fuel for the "why does SDSU suck?" mystery: 14 alumni will be on NFL opening weekend rosters in 2010, including the two IRs.
This list is after the weekend cut-down to the final 53-man rosters. The eyes can glaze over while researching this stuff, so let me know if I've missed someone.
As of now, it looks like renewal is bigger than the fresh and new, but we'll start with the latter. The top dog among them appears to be RB Arian Foster, who appears ready to become the feature back of the Houston Texans. Foster is a Mission Bay High product who was the primary ball-carrier for Tennessee but never really became a star in Knoxville. QB Josh Johnson, the former USD superstar, will start this weekend for Tampa Bay because of an injury to starter Josh Freeman, and who knows what can happen with a big performance? The other major newcomer is Lance Louis, who left San Diego State under criminal investigation for an assault in a team meeting room but is now set to start at G for the Chicago Bears. Life can lead you on a strange path.
The big news, though, ought to come from the veterans who will find themselves finally ready to fulfill expectations, or are in new places with big shoes to fill. The most microscopes will focus on San Francisco QB Alex Smith, who has had four average or worse seasons since the 49ers took him first in the NFL draft. The 'niners look like a potential division champ, but need the Helix High alumnus to get them there. All reports out of SF the past year or so have said he's finally ready, but injuries have slowed his progress. Now, if the offensive line can keep him alive, we'll see if he's ready for stardom.
Kirk Morrison has moved from the middle of the Oakland Raiders defense to the center of the Jacksonville Jaguars stoppers, who seem much happier to have him than his hometown employers ever did. The SDSU product is set to start for a LB corps that includes former Aztecs Russell Allen -- a Vista High alum slated to be the top backup -- and Freddy Keiaho, the former Colt who is on injured-reserve with a concussion.
For the Chargers, former Aztec offensive lineman Brandyn Dombrowski is set to play a major role for a unit that will be watched closely this season, and ex-SDSU LB Antwan Applewhite will hope his ability to make plays finally gets noticed by coaches, who really need to get him on the field more often.
Former SDSU T Chester Pitts, the longtime Texans starter and Super Bowl TV commercial star, might start in place of injured Russell Okung for the Seahawks for a couple of weeks. That is even though Pitts missed all the exhibition games because of injury. Khalif Barnes of Mount Miguel High will be the Raiders main backup at LT. G Stephen Neal (San Diego High) returns to the Patriots line after being hurt last year.
OTHER LOCAL HIGH SCHOOL PRODUCTS:
-- RB Reggie Bush of Helix High (New Orleans Saints)
-- LB Brandon Chillar of Carlsbad High (Green Bay Packers)
-- LB Travis Goethel of Vista High (Oakland Raiders)
-- CB Leon Hall of Vista High (Cincinnati Bengals)
-- WR Marcus Smith of Morse High (Baltimore Ravens)
-- WR Brett Swain of Carlsbad High and SDSU (Green Bay Packers)
-- LB Pisa Tinoisamoa of Vista High (Chicago Bears)
-- WR Roberto Wallace of Oceanside High and SDSU (Miami Dolphins)
-- RB Ricky Williams of Patrick Henry High (Miami Dolphins)
OTHER SAN DIEGO STATE PLAYERS
-- LB Heath Farwell (Minnesota Vikings)
-- RB Lynell Hamilton (New Orleans Saints)
-- WR Kassim Osgood (Jacksonville Jaguars)
-- WR Chaz Schilens (Oakland Raiders)
By the way, Hamilton is on IR and Schilens might miss the first couple of months with another injury. More fuel for the "why does SDSU suck?" mystery: 14 alumni will be on NFL opening weekend rosters in 2010, including the two IRs.
This list is after the weekend cut-down to the final 53-man rosters. The eyes can glaze over while researching this stuff, so let me know if I've missed someone.
Sunday, September 05, 2010
Ello Was Right on Padres Trades
When Padres GM Jed Hoyer made his pre-trade deadline moves in July, I was glad that he had the guts to go out and improve the lineup, accomplishing the task while giving up little from the farm system.
Chris Ello, the mid-morning talk show host at 1360AM -- and moving to an early-afternoon slot -- had the opposite reaction. His opinion was that the additions of SS Miguel Tejada and RF Ryan Ludwick would alter the character of the team, from a scrappy athletic group to a bunch of station-to-station players of the sort regularly spit out by Petco Park over the years. Tejada in particular would be a poor fit here, according to Ello.
I shrugged when I heard him. Ello can be a curmudgeon and has a tendency to predict the worst for San Diego sports efforts, and this seemed no different. If nothing else, Tejada was going to be an upgrade over Everth Cabrera.
Fast forward to more than a month later, and it is looking like Ello was right. While the Padres have had some notable pitching failures over the past two weeks, the bottom line reason for the now-10-game losing streak is an inability to push runs across the plate. The Friars have, by my mediocre math, scored a paltry 23 runs over the 10 games, getting as many as five runs in a contest only once. They haven't been patient at the plate, working counts to get on base, and when opportunities have arisen, they've converted minimally. They are, like the beginning of last year and in prior years, a station-to-station team that, even with the additions of Tejada and Ludwick, still aren't powerful enough to make it work.
The moves appeared to work well at first. The Padres began August with a 16-7 record. That's now 16-17. In some ways, that's not too terrible, but they're not going to win any divisions performing at that rate, and it is a sign that Ello might have been right on this one.
Chris Ello, the mid-morning talk show host at 1360AM -- and moving to an early-afternoon slot -- had the opposite reaction. His opinion was that the additions of SS Miguel Tejada and RF Ryan Ludwick would alter the character of the team, from a scrappy athletic group to a bunch of station-to-station players of the sort regularly spit out by Petco Park over the years. Tejada in particular would be a poor fit here, according to Ello.
I shrugged when I heard him. Ello can be a curmudgeon and has a tendency to predict the worst for San Diego sports efforts, and this seemed no different. If nothing else, Tejada was going to be an upgrade over Everth Cabrera.
Fast forward to more than a month later, and it is looking like Ello was right. While the Padres have had some notable pitching failures over the past two weeks, the bottom line reason for the now-10-game losing streak is an inability to push runs across the plate. The Friars have, by my mediocre math, scored a paltry 23 runs over the 10 games, getting as many as five runs in a contest only once. They haven't been patient at the plate, working counts to get on base, and when opportunities have arisen, they've converted minimally. They are, like the beginning of last year and in prior years, a station-to-station team that, even with the additions of Tejada and Ludwick, still aren't powerful enough to make it work.
The moves appeared to work well at first. The Padres began August with a 16-7 record. That's now 16-17. In some ways, that's not too terrible, but they're not going to win any divisions performing at that rate, and it is a sign that Ello might have been right on this one.
Saturday, September 04, 2010
Aztecs and Toreros Postgame Reaction
San Diego State opened the 2010 season with a 47-0 win over Nicholls State while USD was taken to the woodshed by Azusa-Pacific 42-14.
The Aztecs were scoreless in the first quarter as the teams felt themselves out but exploded for 20 in the second period and never looked back. Still, the slow start set the tone for the game, which left a lot to like and dislike.
Like:
-- QB Ryan Lindley looked fully in charge and only made one really bad pass. Getting a throw for backup Jake Barnards.
-- RBs Devon Brown, Walter Kazee and Ronnie Hillman look capable, combining for 204 yards.
-- Senior WR DeMarco Sampson played like he wants to be a first-day draft pick next year, with seven receptions for 179 yards and two TDs.
-- The offensive line indeed looks improved.
-- The young depth on defense looks very good. The Aztecs went two or three deep in many positions and the kids held up their end.
-- The overall game atmosphere was much better than in previous years, and the turnout of more than 25,000 is better than could have been expected against an unknown cupcake of an opponent.
DISLIKE:
-- The starters on defense appeared like this was just another practice or scrimmage on campus instead of the first game of the season. Weak effort and not much enthusiasm. Burned on the screen play time and time again. A couple times in the first quarter, okay, but still happening in the third? Be serious.
-- Those starters constantly took bad angles to the football and got torched by Colonels QB LaQuinton Caston, who gained 49 yards despite being sacked three times. If they keep that up, Utah State's Diondre Borel will eat them up in three weeks. Either the pursuit angles were very poor, or they were very slow, or both. I hope it was the first because it can be corrected.
-- Fullback Brandon Sullivan was standing too often at the end of running plays when he was supposed to block.
-- I mentioned concern about the soft kick coverage units in an earlier post, and I'm now scared. If things aren't tightened up, they'll give up at least one punt return and one kickoff return for scores this fall.
-- This game could have been closer. The Colonels had too many nice drives end in disaster because, frankly, they're a mediocre team at a lower level, and the Aztecs tacked on some points late because the starters played on offense halfway through the fourth quarter -- far more than they should have.
The bottom line is the opener was a success but thank God they were playing a cupcake. They certainly would not have been ready for a Division 1 team. Things are improving around here, but this ain't no 9-3 team.
---
All you need to know about APU's rout of USD: the Cougars ran for 325 yards. The Toreros gained 42 yards on the ground, in comparison, and fumbled twice. The domination came in the second half, which was 28-0 in APU's favor. The Toreros also allowed four sacks and committed 11 penalties. The Toreros scores came on passes of 61 and 25 yards from QB Sam Scudellari to WR Kyle Warren. Hard times have come to Alcala Park. Oh, it's about to get worse. The next two opponents are Southern Utah and UC Davis. Gulp!
The Aztecs were scoreless in the first quarter as the teams felt themselves out but exploded for 20 in the second period and never looked back. Still, the slow start set the tone for the game, which left a lot to like and dislike.
Like:
-- QB Ryan Lindley looked fully in charge and only made one really bad pass. Getting a throw for backup Jake Barnards.
-- RBs Devon Brown, Walter Kazee and Ronnie Hillman look capable, combining for 204 yards.
-- Senior WR DeMarco Sampson played like he wants to be a first-day draft pick next year, with seven receptions for 179 yards and two TDs.
-- The offensive line indeed looks improved.
-- The young depth on defense looks very good. The Aztecs went two or three deep in many positions and the kids held up their end.
-- The overall game atmosphere was much better than in previous years, and the turnout of more than 25,000 is better than could have been expected against an unknown cupcake of an opponent.
DISLIKE:
-- The starters on defense appeared like this was just another practice or scrimmage on campus instead of the first game of the season. Weak effort and not much enthusiasm. Burned on the screen play time and time again. A couple times in the first quarter, okay, but still happening in the third? Be serious.
-- Those starters constantly took bad angles to the football and got torched by Colonels QB LaQuinton Caston, who gained 49 yards despite being sacked three times. If they keep that up, Utah State's Diondre Borel will eat them up in three weeks. Either the pursuit angles were very poor, or they were very slow, or both. I hope it was the first because it can be corrected.
-- Fullback Brandon Sullivan was standing too often at the end of running plays when he was supposed to block.
-- I mentioned concern about the soft kick coverage units in an earlier post, and I'm now scared. If things aren't tightened up, they'll give up at least one punt return and one kickoff return for scores this fall.
-- This game could have been closer. The Colonels had too many nice drives end in disaster because, frankly, they're a mediocre team at a lower level, and the Aztecs tacked on some points late because the starters played on offense halfway through the fourth quarter -- far more than they should have.
The bottom line is the opener was a success but thank God they were playing a cupcake. They certainly would not have been ready for a Division 1 team. Things are improving around here, but this ain't no 9-3 team.
---
All you need to know about APU's rout of USD: the Cougars ran for 325 yards. The Toreros gained 42 yards on the ground, in comparison, and fumbled twice. The domination came in the second half, which was 28-0 in APU's favor. The Toreros also allowed four sacks and committed 11 penalties. The Toreros scores came on passes of 61 and 25 yards from QB Sam Scudellari to WR Kyle Warren. Hard times have come to Alcala Park. Oh, it's about to get worse. The next two opponents are Southern Utah and UC Davis. Gulp!
Thursday, September 02, 2010
Hoke Era Begins for Real as Aztecs Seek Viability
Saturday is the real beginning of the Brady Hoke-era for San Diego State football. You only saw a minor imprint of the former linebacker's big paw in 2009 as his staff came to learn just how bad the Chuck Long train wreck was. Now that he's been on the job for about 20 months, Hoke has ownership and responsibility for what happens from here on out.
Thank God for it, because the next couple of years are going to be very interesting in the evolving makeup of college football, and the ability of SDSU football to re-create a viable market in San Diego is going to be of utmost importance. I am glad Hoke is in charge, and making the changes he's making, because I think the landscape of the sport is destined for radical change in the next three or four years. Schools large and small are going to decide they don't like the positions they find themselves in, and it will be worse as time marches on. What is going on now with the looming departures of BYU and Utah from the Mountain West Conference, and the upcoming additions of Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada, is small potatoes. Administrators in Salt Lake City and Provo will happily count their extra cash in the future but will cringe at 7-5 or worse records. The Cougars could be headed for irrelevance in the next few years while the Utes languish against superior competition.
If their futures are repeated at other schools across the country, change in the form of playoffs or super-conferences might take place. My joke is that the only super-conference likely to be formed will have only three teams: USC, Texas and Notre Dame. A three-team league, no one else matters.
Whatever the future holds, San Diego State better be ready. Bad teams playing before small crowds in an uninterested city is a situation no longer sustainable. Hoke has to do some nation-building here, and I think he is off to a good start. He has local high school coaches behind him, unusually strong support from the media, and has come up with some good ideas like last Friday's welcome to freshman, the Warrior Walk and return of the on-field spear planting -- deemed not PC by past administrations.
If there is a decent team that draws reasonably well in one of the 10 largest cities in the United States, then SDSU will be well-positioned for future super-conferences or re-leaguing. If the Aztecs extend their bowl drought much longer, you might be looking at the end of the program entirely.
---
Local sportscaster Lee Hamilton wrote this week that San Diego State will be the surprise of college football and go 9-3 this season. I think he is a year too early. I have written here a couple of times that the Aztecs will compete for a 6-6 bowl this fall, and I've seen nothing that makes me change my mind.
There are plenty of causes for optimism:
-- QB Ryan Lindley is in his third season as the unquestioned starter and has shown great passing ability. He has made strides as a pro-style QB and should cut down on his penchant for disastrous errors. Look for him to have a big year.
-- The wide receivers as a group, and Vincent Brown as an individual, are rated high nationally and are a big reason why Lindley will excel. Add improved TE Alston Umuolo to the mix, and I'd hate to be an opposing defensive coordinator.
-- Ronnie Hillman is the Aztecs best chance for a feature back since Lynell Hamilton. While the offensive line gets trashed for not blocking well for the run, I saw a number of instances last fall in which holes were opened but the backs couldn't get through them. Hillman probably will change that.
-- The young depth on defense is exciting. Kids like LB Jake Fely and DB Rene Siluano are playmakers with a nose for the ball.
-- The schedule breaks well early, with the opening cupcake and winnable second game on the road at New Mexico State. No one expects a win at Missouri, but the Aztecs can apply whatever lessons they learned against the Tigers against Utah State at home. By then, the upperclassmen should be humming and the youngsters will have their feet wet -- just in time for the MWC slate.
Reality checks:
-- Of the three ballyhooed JC transfer offensive linemen brought in the stabilize the unit and provide competition, one didn't make it into school, one stuck long enough to go through training camp before being ruled academically ineligible, and the third failed to win a starting position.
-- That failure has left the offensive line awfully thin at right tackle and both guard spots.
-- If Lindley goes down ..., well, you know.
-- Running back depth has also been depleted by academic problems, some of which are not the fault of the student-athletes.
-- The defensive line is manned by players who have been trampled for two or three seasons now. They might be stronger and quicker, but does that mean they're better?
-- That young depth in the secondary will be a lot of fun to watch, but they're still just true and redshirt freshman, which always brings its own headaches. I'm not confident in the returning starters.
-- JC transfer Abel Perez should improve the kickoff situation, which has been horrible for a couple of years. I was not impressed by the coverage I saw in last month's scrimmage. I'm not sure we can count on Perez or Bryan Shields to be more reliable kicking field goals over what was here in 2009.
---
Prediction: I think the passing game will be dynamic and spread the field so much that the running game will approve by default. The Aztecs are going to score points by the bushel and be fun to watch because there will be a lot of shootouts. Don't get smug when the defense performs well early. Nicholls State changed coaches and schemes and will need time to settle in, and New Mexico State had one of college football's worst offenses last season. Missouri, however, will hit SDSU up for at least 30, which will probably start a trend. It might be a return to how things were in the wacky WAC, but it will be fun to watch.
Yes, challenge for a 6-6 bowl and probably get there, and defeating whatever WAC, C-USA or Sun Belt team the Aztecs get to play. The most important question is whether Hoke can get anyone to care.
Thank God for it, because the next couple of years are going to be very interesting in the evolving makeup of college football, and the ability of SDSU football to re-create a viable market in San Diego is going to be of utmost importance. I am glad Hoke is in charge, and making the changes he's making, because I think the landscape of the sport is destined for radical change in the next three or four years. Schools large and small are going to decide they don't like the positions they find themselves in, and it will be worse as time marches on. What is going on now with the looming departures of BYU and Utah from the Mountain West Conference, and the upcoming additions of Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada, is small potatoes. Administrators in Salt Lake City and Provo will happily count their extra cash in the future but will cringe at 7-5 or worse records. The Cougars could be headed for irrelevance in the next few years while the Utes languish against superior competition.
If their futures are repeated at other schools across the country, change in the form of playoffs or super-conferences might take place. My joke is that the only super-conference likely to be formed will have only three teams: USC, Texas and Notre Dame. A three-team league, no one else matters.
Whatever the future holds, San Diego State better be ready. Bad teams playing before small crowds in an uninterested city is a situation no longer sustainable. Hoke has to do some nation-building here, and I think he is off to a good start. He has local high school coaches behind him, unusually strong support from the media, and has come up with some good ideas like last Friday's welcome to freshman, the Warrior Walk and return of the on-field spear planting -- deemed not PC by past administrations.
If there is a decent team that draws reasonably well in one of the 10 largest cities in the United States, then SDSU will be well-positioned for future super-conferences or re-leaguing. If the Aztecs extend their bowl drought much longer, you might be looking at the end of the program entirely.
---
Local sportscaster Lee Hamilton wrote this week that San Diego State will be the surprise of college football and go 9-3 this season. I think he is a year too early. I have written here a couple of times that the Aztecs will compete for a 6-6 bowl this fall, and I've seen nothing that makes me change my mind.
There are plenty of causes for optimism:
-- QB Ryan Lindley is in his third season as the unquestioned starter and has shown great passing ability. He has made strides as a pro-style QB and should cut down on his penchant for disastrous errors. Look for him to have a big year.
-- The wide receivers as a group, and Vincent Brown as an individual, are rated high nationally and are a big reason why Lindley will excel. Add improved TE Alston Umuolo to the mix, and I'd hate to be an opposing defensive coordinator.
-- Ronnie Hillman is the Aztecs best chance for a feature back since Lynell Hamilton. While the offensive line gets trashed for not blocking well for the run, I saw a number of instances last fall in which holes were opened but the backs couldn't get through them. Hillman probably will change that.
-- The young depth on defense is exciting. Kids like LB Jake Fely and DB Rene Siluano are playmakers with a nose for the ball.
-- The schedule breaks well early, with the opening cupcake and winnable second game on the road at New Mexico State. No one expects a win at Missouri, but the Aztecs can apply whatever lessons they learned against the Tigers against Utah State at home. By then, the upperclassmen should be humming and the youngsters will have their feet wet -- just in time for the MWC slate.
Reality checks:
-- Of the three ballyhooed JC transfer offensive linemen brought in the stabilize the unit and provide competition, one didn't make it into school, one stuck long enough to go through training camp before being ruled academically ineligible, and the third failed to win a starting position.
-- That failure has left the offensive line awfully thin at right tackle and both guard spots.
-- If Lindley goes down ..., well, you know.
-- Running back depth has also been depleted by academic problems, some of which are not the fault of the student-athletes.
-- The defensive line is manned by players who have been trampled for two or three seasons now. They might be stronger and quicker, but does that mean they're better?
-- That young depth in the secondary will be a lot of fun to watch, but they're still just true and redshirt freshman, which always brings its own headaches. I'm not confident in the returning starters.
-- JC transfer Abel Perez should improve the kickoff situation, which has been horrible for a couple of years. I was not impressed by the coverage I saw in last month's scrimmage. I'm not sure we can count on Perez or Bryan Shields to be more reliable kicking field goals over what was here in 2009.
---
Prediction: I think the passing game will be dynamic and spread the field so much that the running game will approve by default. The Aztecs are going to score points by the bushel and be fun to watch because there will be a lot of shootouts. Don't get smug when the defense performs well early. Nicholls State changed coaches and schemes and will need time to settle in, and New Mexico State had one of college football's worst offenses last season. Missouri, however, will hit SDSU up for at least 30, which will probably start a trend. It might be a return to how things were in the wacky WAC, but it will be fun to watch.
Yes, challenge for a 6-6 bowl and probably get there, and defeating whatever WAC, C-USA or Sun Belt team the Aztecs get to play. The most important question is whether Hoke can get anyone to care.
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