When San Diego State's men's basketball program went into the Mountain West Conference Tournament in 2002, the way was cleared for an Aztecs' title so much that it was like some god of hoops raised a hand to wave them through. It was the first of two MWC Tournament titles in coach Steve Fisher's 11 years, and a third is possible this week.
Before the 2002 MWC tourney, I wrote that SDSU was going to win it strictly because of the way the matchups lined up. Everything was favorable, so it wasn't like I had special insight or was going out on a major limb.
I wouldn't say things are quite that good for the Aztecs this time around because the conference as a whole is much better now, neight years later. However, the matchups again are breaking SDSU's way.
Colorado State and Utah played Saturday night in their regular season finales, and the winner would be seeded in the slot opposite Fisher's crew. The Aztecs downed the Rams twice by double-digit scores. They also swept the Utes, but one game went to overtime and the other was very close until the final minute. It was best SDSU for CSU to beat the Utes and they did.
The seeding process worked out to where if the Aztecs advance to the semifinals, they'd play New Mexico, not BYU. They beat the Lobos once and took them to OT in The Pit. As good as the eighth-ranked Lobos are, SDSU matches up with them better than the Cougars.
The other semifinal would, most likely, be BYU-UNLV. The Cougars routed SDSU in Provo and won in Viejas Arena. Tough match. But BYU doesn't do well against UNLV so might not even make the final. There's the big news -- a UNLV-SDSU championship would bode better for the Aztecs than a match vs. BYU. The Aztecs split with the Rebels this year.
So we'll see how it goes this week. I'm not going to predict anything, and I still am in no way excited about being a "last four in" team because there will be tournament upsets in other conferences. SDSU has to win three straight this week to make the Big Dance. A lot has to happen for the Aztecs to get there, but much in their favor has broken their way already.
---
Things clearly aren’t so good across Mission Valley, where USD suffered 20 losses in Bill Grier’s third season as coach. I think it’s fair now to ask how much slack the guy deserves after simply winning one NCAA Tournament game. That was a long time ago now, especially in the "win today" time frame of big-time college sports.
I have two problems with the status of USD men’s basketball.
The first is a bad last impression. Sure, every team but two – the NCAA and NIT winners – will complete their seasons with a loss, but you want to leave the overall impression that things will be even better next year. At SDSU, even if they only make the NIT, you have to like their chances next season with nearly everyone coming back. That’s not the case at USD, where their only good players are two guards who won’t return. The underclassmen simply aren’t impressive and don’t have fans breathlessly awaiting the 2010-11 campaign.
The second is that Grier is not recruiting well. It’s not just that he isn't getting good players. The problem is the players he has recruited are not as good as those brought in by predecessor Brad Holland. I’m a shameless Holland-honk, I admit it. The guy did a great job with few resources at his disposal, and he was able to get a lot of good basketball players to go to the little school on the hill. There are no players of the ability of an Andre Laws or Roy Morris on the roster coming back next season.
There’s the rub. Holland was fired to pave the way for Grier. The successor has had two bad years after his spectacular first season. My question is how many more years does the March win over UConn buy? I’d say one more to give him a chance to recruit better players and prove to us that he can turn the ship around. If in March 2011, no matter the record, we’re excited about the Toreros’ prospects the next season, then fine. If not, then some USD administrators are going to have to swallow their pride and admit their mistake.
No comments:
Post a Comment