I agree with the numerous commentators who think San Diego State will beat Tennessee in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament Thursday, and here's why. Familiarity. The Volunteers play nearly the same style as SDSU and other teams the Aztecs have played -- and defeated -- recently, like New Mexico and UNLV. They play well against similar teams. If they do win, they'll hang with Georgetown Saturday in Round 2 for the same reason.
Tennessee players appear to be struggling mentally more than physically right now, and if we get deep into the second half and SDSU is still hanging around, give the Aztecs the advantage. The Aztecs won their Mountain West Tournament games by 1, 3 and 10 points -- the latter of which saw the winners pull away with late free throws. The Vols haven't played a really tight game since getting past Florida 61-60 in Knoxville -- in January. Most of their margins up or down have been near or at double-digits. The Aztecs will likely have the Providence crowd on their side as the underdogs if they're close or ahead at the end.
If you want an early clue to how things might work out Thursday night, flip on Channel 8 in the morning and catch BYU-Florida. Same conferences as SDSU-Tenn. and the seeding is more favorable to the Cougars. If the MWC can hang with the SEC, we'll know by lunchtime.
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Don't go by my Final Four: Kansas, Baylor, BYU and West Virginia, with the Jayhawks beating the Mountaineers for all the marbles. I didn't plan it with a bunch of upsets, its just how things worked out. I'm sure the only one of the four who will make it is KU.
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