Monday, March 29, 2010

Lincoln and SDSU Hoops, Padres

There has been so much attention the past couple of weeks on the success of the San Diego State men's and women's basketball teams that what Lincoln High accomplished last Friday is kind of being ignored -- and that's wrong.

The Hornets, by some measurements, made themselves the most accomplished high school basketball team EVER in San Diego County. That's pretty big, something that needs to be celebrated.

What Lincoln did, in a nutshell, was defeat Saint Francis of Mountain View 74-59 to win the Division II state championship. That's about all we've seen about it in various media reports. They won and isn't that nice.

Here's the context that I find to be important. Lincoln became the first local team to win a Division II state title. No San Diego team has won a Division I (large schools) title. The old USDHS won in 1998 in Division III. Horizon won Division IV titles in 2002-03, and Lincoln won D-IV in its smaller pre-remodeling configuration in 1994. For boys basketball, that's it for local state championships.

That makes Lincoln the first San Diego County school to win a state title in one of the largest divisions. And they did it by winning 24 straight games. That's something in my book.

The local girls haven't done much better over the years, with the only titles among the bigger schools being won by Terri Mann's Point Loma High teams back in the 1980s.

There have probably been local teams with a better collection of players, but only a couple. Senior Victor Dean is headed to Fresno State to play basketball and football. Junior Norman Powell has made himself into a major recruit, being pursued by SDSU and reportedly keeping his eyes on USC. Senior Nate Maxey is reportedly headed for a prep school to straighten out his academics, adversely impacted by attending three different schools in three years, but is also on Aztecs coach Steve Fisher's radar.

It might not be the best collection of local basketball players ever, but it is arguably the most accomplished.

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SDSU did everything expected of it in basketball this year, no more and no less. And, darn, how frustratingly close it came to being more.

It appeared that the men would have a strong year despite replacing five important players, including four starters. They improved on last season's NIT run by making the NCAA Tournament and were one ungrabbed rebound away from possibly defeating Tennessee, which went to the Midwest Regional final. I really think the men would have defeated Ohio and gone to the Sweet 16 if they'd won, and they'd have battled Ohio State well if that had happened. As stated in my previous post, what shortcomings the Aztecs have will be filled in time for next season.

Coming into the season, I wrote that the women could be the most nationally competitive Aztecs since the men's volleyball team won a national championship. The regular season was tough because of injuries and apparent locker room squabbles but they got things together in time for the Mountain West Tournament and the NCAAs, in which they defeated Texas on their home floor and highly regarded West Virginia. The Sweet 16 was about what was expected from this group of players, and they came through. Like the men, it could have been even better, yet superb guard Jene Morris was hobbled against Duke in Saturday's season-ending loss.

Both teams met expectations and were bounced from the Big Dance by better teams, which is how it should be. There are certainly arguments about whether the SDSU men should have been forced to travel so far and have to face a team as good as Tennessee in the first round, but what's done is done.

Next year? Onward and upward for the men. The women lose Morris and guard Quenese Davis, so expectations for them might have to be adjusted accordingly.

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Padres manager Bud Black announced Sunday a starting rotation of Jon Garland-Chris Young-Kevin Correia. I like this because it shows that he's not yet sold on Young's comeback from injuries, nor seems overly enthusiastic about Correia, the team's best starter last year but coming off a very erratic history. Young and Correia might be just fine. I'm just glad to interpret Black's wait-and-see approach.

I've been worried that the fourth and fifth spots were being reserved for the pitchers who were out of options rather than the most deserving. I'm uncertain about probable fourth starter Clayton Richard. I think he was rather unimpressive after coming to San Diego in the Jake Peavy trade, which now looks like highway robbery on the part of the White Sox, and has been out-pitched this spring by Mat Latos, Tim Stauffer and Wade LeBlanc. Add Sean Gallagher and Black has to find a way to squeeze five good pitchers into two spots in the rotation.

I'll post something of a season preview by the end of the week. I will say that my initial impression of the National League West is not very good -- which could lead to an interesting summer even in Petco Park.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Fisher's Program Marked by Incremental Progress

San Diego State's 62-59 loss to Tennessee in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament Thursday night was, ironically, another sign of progress for coach Steve Fisher's men's basketball program.

The past eight years, since the Aztecs first NCAA appearance under Fisher, have been marked by incremental progress that is sometimes too slow to see -- geologic time. It can be a frustrating process. But you have to walk before you can run, and SDSU was so far behind when he took over as coach that his team has only been traveling at a quick pace for a few years.

Consider, they nearly beat a good, likely Sweet 16 team that has defeated two number one seeds after traveling more than 3,000 miles to play them. That is far ahead of the 2002 rout at the hands of Illinois and the gag against Indiana in SDSU's second Big Dance under Fisher. Add the deep run in last year's NIT.

Next season's incremental step should be even better since only reserve Kelvin Davis is leaving -- that we know of. James Rahon, a sharp-shooting transfer from Santa Clara who would have come in handy in Providence, becomes eligible. Maybe, pray to God, Tim Shelton will return to health. The returnees will be bigger, stronger and more experienced. Add in two freshmen named Franklin -- a wonderful athlete from Arizona and one of California's best point guards -- and you have to figure next season will show more progress.

As things stand right now, and Lord knows a lot can change between now and when practice gets going in seven months, Fisher's Aztecs should challenge for a national ranking and a high tournament seed next season. National respect came to them this past couple weeks and I don't think the loss to Tennessee will dampen it too much -- especially with the way cleared for the Volunteers to go to the Sweet 16 and beyond.

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Back to baseball, huh?

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Familiarity Favors Aztecs in Tourney Opener

I agree with the numerous commentators who think San Diego State will beat Tennessee in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament Thursday, and here's why. Familiarity. The Volunteers play nearly the same style as SDSU and other teams the Aztecs have played -- and defeated -- recently, like New Mexico and UNLV. They play well against similar teams. If they do win, they'll hang with Georgetown Saturday in Round 2 for the same reason.

Tennessee players appear to be struggling mentally more than physically right now, and if we get deep into the second half and SDSU is still hanging around, give the Aztecs the advantage. The Aztecs won their Mountain West Tournament games by 1, 3 and 10 points -- the latter of which saw the winners pull away with late free throws. The Vols haven't played a really tight game since getting past Florida 61-60 in Knoxville -- in January. Most of their margins up or down have been near or at double-digits. The Aztecs will likely have the Providence crowd on their side as the underdogs if they're close or ahead at the end.

If you want an early clue to how things might work out Thursday night, flip on Channel 8 in the morning and catch BYU-Florida. Same conferences as SDSU-Tenn. and the seeding is more favorable to the Cougars. If the MWC can hang with the SEC, we'll know by lunchtime.

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Don't go by my Final Four: Kansas, Baylor, BYU and West Virginia, with the Jayhawks beating the Mountaineers for all the marbles. I didn't plan it with a bunch of upsets, its just how things worked out. I'm sure the only one of the four who will make it is KU.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Give a Ram a Hug, LT

A lot of people had a hand in San Diego State's MWC men's basketball championship over the weekend: Steve Fisher with brilliant coaching, DJ Gay running the point for 119 of 120 minutes and making key shots at the end of games, Billy White for exploding on New Mexico and Kawhi Leonard for grabbing every rebound in sight.

But maybe none of the fun would have happened without the Colorado State Rams, who fell to SDSU 72-71 in the opening round on Thursday. That game was war, a bruising struggle filled with elbows, fists and body blows. It nearly worked for CSU, which had several chances to win in the final seconds. The Aztecs moved on with Gay's heroics to Friday's win over New Mexico and Saturday's championship conquest of tournament host UNLV.

The CSU game was a wake-up call for the Red & Black and they clearly got the message. When the next two games got rough and the opponents made runs, the Aztecs had something in reserve. They weren't shocked when other teams tried to impose their will on them and each time they turned back the challenge.

Now SDSU goes to Providence, RI, to take on Tennessee in the first round of the Big Dance -- a game created by a mockery of seeding that saw the value of both teams knocked down by several spots. The Aztecs will face a mirror image with an orange tinge, Volunteers who depended on athleticism and rebounding to win 25 games this season. If the Aztecs somehow win their first NCAA Tournament game, they will probably face Georgetown, another team similar in style.

Based on the past weekend, I'm convinced that Fisher will have the Aztecs mentally ready. My only concerns are physical: whether the injuries the players overcame in Las Vegas will catch up to them on the East Coast, and whether the fate of basketball will choose Thursday to give them a bad shooting game.

The week ahead should be fun. The weekend now passed was a blast, thanks in part to Colorado State.

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LaDainian Tomlinson, who expressed a desire when released last month by the Chargers to play in the Super Bowl, may have taken a major step in fulfilling his wish by signing a two-year contract with the Jets on Sunday. It appeared to come down to the Jets and Vikings, and he apparently decided that New York is closer to taking the final step. I think he is right. I'm not sure quarterback Mark Sanchez will be ready in his second NFL season to lead a team all the way, but in his third year you have to think it's a distinct possibility.

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Following up on my pre-season college baseball comments a few weeks ago, it should be noted that SDSU is 6-10 with a paltry .250 batting average. They've nearly been doubled up in home runs and doubles, and the opponents' slugging percentage is nearly 100 percentage points higher.

USD is a mediocre 9-8 but as a team is hitting nearly .300, far higher than opponents, and are out-slugging the other teams.

It could be that both teams will need to win conference automatic bids to make the NCAA Regionals this spring.

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Going SDSU-heavy on this post, but there are reports around that DB DeyJuan Hemmings suffered a serious leg injury at a spring practice scrimmage on Saturday. Either a dislocated foot or broken leg -- or both. He was one of the best players in the secondary last fall.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Good Times and Bad Times for SDSU, USD Hoops

When San Diego State's men's basketball program went into the Mountain West Conference Tournament in 2002, the way was cleared for an Aztecs' title so much that it was like some god of hoops raised a hand to wave them through. It was the first of two MWC Tournament titles in coach Steve Fisher's 11 years, and a third is possible this week.

Before the 2002 MWC tourney, I wrote that SDSU was going to win it strictly because of the way the matchups lined up. Everything was favorable, so it wasn't like I had special insight or was going out on a major limb.

I wouldn't say things are quite that good for the Aztecs this time around because the conference as a whole is much better now, neight years later. However, the matchups again are breaking SDSU's way.

Colorado State and Utah played Saturday night in their regular season finales, and the winner would be seeded in the slot opposite Fisher's crew. The Aztecs downed the Rams twice by double-digit scores. They also swept the Utes, but one game went to overtime and the other was very close until the final minute. It was best SDSU for CSU to beat the Utes and they did.

The seeding process worked out to where if the Aztecs advance to the semifinals, they'd play New Mexico, not BYU. They beat the Lobos once and took them to OT in The Pit. As good as the eighth-ranked Lobos are, SDSU matches up with them better than the Cougars.

The other semifinal would, most likely, be BYU-UNLV. The Cougars routed SDSU in Provo and won in Viejas Arena. Tough match. But BYU doesn't do well against UNLV so might not even make the final. There's the big news -- a UNLV-SDSU championship would bode better for the Aztecs than a match vs. BYU. The Aztecs split with the Rebels this year.

So we'll see how it goes this week. I'm not going to predict anything, and I still am in no way excited about being a "last four in" team because there will be tournament upsets in other conferences. SDSU has to win three straight this week to make the Big Dance. A lot has to happen for the Aztecs to get there, but much in their favor has broken their way already.

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Things clearly aren’t so good across Mission Valley, where USD suffered 20 losses in Bill Grier’s third season as coach. I think it’s fair now to ask how much slack the guy deserves after simply winning one NCAA Tournament game. That was a long time ago now, especially in the "win today" time frame of big-time college sports.

I have two problems with the status of USD men’s basketball.

The first is a bad last impression. Sure, every team but two – the NCAA and NIT winners – will complete their seasons with a loss, but you want to leave the overall impression that things will be even better next year. At SDSU, even if they only make the NIT, you have to like their chances next season with nearly everyone coming back. That’s not the case at USD, where their only good players are two guards who won’t return. The underclassmen simply aren’t impressive and don’t have fans breathlessly awaiting the 2010-11 campaign.

The second is that Grier is not recruiting well. It’s not just that he isn't getting good players. The problem is the players he has recruited are not as good as those brought in by predecessor Brad Holland. I’m a shameless Holland-honk, I admit it. The guy did a great job with few resources at his disposal, and he was able to get a lot of good basketball players to go to the little school on the hill. There are no players of the ability of an Andre Laws or Roy Morris on the roster coming back next season.

There’s the rub. Holland was fired to pave the way for Grier. The successor has had two bad years after his spectacular first season. My question is how many more years does the March win over UConn buy? I’d say one more to give him a chance to recruit better players and prove to us that he can turn the ship around. If in March 2011, no matter the record, we’re excited about the Toreros’ prospects the next season, then fine. If not, then some USD administrators are going to have to swallow their pride and admit their mistake.

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Jamal Williams, Chris Young, March Questions

No, the Chargers first round draft pick this spring won't be a running back. That's the old way of thinking. The new concept is this: a great big strong defensive tackle. That came about when General Manager AJ Smith had a change of heart and decided to release veteran Jamal Williams Thursday and protect Darren Sproles.

Williams plugged the middle of the Chargers defensive line for most of 12 years, though he did sustain injuries here and there of the sort one would expect from someone doing battle in the NFL's rugged trenches. The end became apparent last season when he was injured in the season-opener in Oakland and missed the rest of the year. It used to be easy to predict the Bolts' fortune. If Williams was healthy, the defense was good and they won. If Williams was watching from the sidelines, the stoppers couldn't stop anyone and they lost. The 2009 season was different in that, after a couple early stumbles, Smith came up with the revolving "stop gap" and the Chargers defense ended up being pretty good without Williams -- and the Chargers won a lot in the regular season.

The rotation that worked on the front wall was no permanent solution, however, so the Chargers powers-that-be either had to determine whether Williams would return to health or if it was time to move on. The answer is now the latter.

Strangely enough, we could go into the 2010 season with Williams wearing powder blue and Sproles playing elsewhere. Smith reportedly didn't rule out re-signing his nose tackle later in the off-season. Also, the protection on Sproles only allows them to match another team's offer -- it doesn't guarantee that they will if actually faced with such a situation.

So say goodbye to Georgia Tech's Jonathan Dwyer as the ball-carrier of the future. Say hello to a defensive tackle.

That opens a whole 'nuther possibility -- that Smith will package LB Shawne Merriman and someone else into a package deal to move into the top five of the draft and get one of the real big-time interior linemen. We'd sniffle a little less at the loss of Williams if that happened.

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Chris Young's stat line in one inning on the mound in the Padres' spring opener against the Mariners doesn't look like much, but the fact that he was happy with the way his arm felt was good news. Young, if my memory serves, never fared well in Arizona in March. I won't be too concerned about production for another couple starts.

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If someone comes to you excitedly and says some bracketologist just included San Diego State's men's basketball team in their "last four in," don't listen to them. To me, "last four in" is the equivalent of "those four that will get knocked down to the NIT when also-rans start winning conference tournaments." I know some of those guys who make such picks have four entrants from the Mountain West, but its simply not going to happen. The Aztecs simply have to win the conference tournament. Now that could happen.