Chargers Season on Smith, Aztecs Coaching

Lay the blame of this stinker of a Chargers season at the feet of General Manager A.J. Smith. People instinctively want to blame head coach Norv Turner for the 4-8 disaster, but the poor guy probably should not be there in the first place.

It is Smith who couldn't get along with Turner's predecessor, Marty Schottenheimer, and fired him. It is Smith who replaced one of the most successful coaches in NFL history with one of the least successful, then saddled him with out-of-place defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell, who might have been outstanding if his players had different sets of skills. It is Smith who then emasculated Turner by describing him as a system coach and intimating that he was calling the shots, thereby costing the new guy any chance of gaining respect from players or fans. It is Smith who ran Donnie Edwards out of town, a linebacker who always has well over 100 tackles a year. No Chargers linebacker will this year.

It is Smith who seems to place little value on arguably the most important unit in football, the offensive line. In Monday's San Diego Union-Tribune, columnist Tim Sullivan hits the nail on the head. The offensive line, once very good, is not so hot anymore. With Cris Dielman out with the flu against the Falcons, there was no room for the Chargers greatest weapon, LaDainian Tomlinson, to run. He got just 22 yards on 14 carries Sunday, and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season, something he hasn't been remotely close to since 2004's 3.9 ypc. He's on track to his lowest number of touchdowns since his rookie season. Their starting right tackle is a second-year former sixth round draft choice.

Now Smith is no terrible GM by any means. He's done a pretty good job in trying to hold the nucleus of this team together under sometimes difficult circumstances. Some in this town try to annoint him a genius, however, and it just isn't the case. He's made some good decisions and some bad ones. The 2008 season is one in which his poor decisions have come back to bite us all in the butt.

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The Chargers experience of firing Schottenheimer in an attempt to bring in a supposedly better coach should give pause to Aztecs fans, who let go Chuck Long in, well, an attempt to bring in a supposedly better coach. You get someone like Turner who fits the system, created it, even, and you think its ideal. But it doesn't work out.

If a pretty good GM like Smith can blow the biggest decision he'll ever make, how will a below-average athletic director like Jeff Schemmel do for San Diego State's football opening? Fans are cringing over the very real possibility that Schemmel will try to bring in his old buddy Glen Mason who, like Turner, has a career losing record at Kansas and Minnesota.

The encouraging sign regarding the Aztecs situation is the high profile role being played by university President Dr. Stephen Weber. I honestly don't remember his presence at the news conference in which the firing of Tom Craft was announced. Maybe he was there. But he apparently played a major role in getting rid of Long. Maybe he can prevent Schemmel from making a huge mistake.

Mason not only doesn't equal Turner, he is far less than Chargers coach.

While I've been upfront with my contention that SDSU had to bite the bullet to fire Long, I am agnostic about his replacement. All of the potential new coaches who've been mentioned have points both good and bad, including Mason.

Whoever it is, though, has a chance to do something no Aztecs coach has been able to do since Denny Stolz in 1986 -- hit the ground running. All coaches since then had to come in and repair damage before they could even think of winning. Long has fixed many of the troubles he inherited in 2005. His problem, the reason why he wasn't ever going to be a winner, is he couldn't inspire the troops, come up with a decent game plan or manage a game properly. If the next coach can do that, and take advantage of some of the gifts the outgoing staff will leave behind, the Aztecs could reach .500 quickly and start going to bowl games if not next year then the year after.

The new coach will have an outstanding sophomore quarterback, a decent corps of receivers, an offensive line that while young will be much bigger and have more depth than before, a deep and experienced defensive line, and young linebackers who might supplant the starters of the past couple of years. Large holes exist at running back and the secondary.

Stolz, by the way, went to the Holiday Bowl his first season.

Comments on Aztecs Football, Peavy

I can't believe it's been so long since I've updated this blog but my attention has been on some other projects. However, I just added an election prediction post to my similarly ignored political blog so I thought I would add some sorely needed comments here, too.

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Separated at birth: the San Diego State football team and the U.S. financial markets. As soon as you think things have hit bottom, you get a new lesson in how much lower things can go. The Aztecs are like a cartoon character who falls off the side of a cliff and keeps falling, falling and falling with no apparent bottom in sight. For SDSU's football team, we know there is an end after three more games but we don't know just how bad things will get before the final whistle vs. UNLV.

That I'm not talking about any hope for success or that SDSU will suddenly pull out of its descent and play three competitive games at season's end is indicative of how things are. There is almost nothing good about this program at all. There were three things early this season that we could hang our hats on and all three have been taken away from us -- QB Ryan Lindley, and let me be the first to say that I fear that his shoulder injury could have long-term implications for whether he'll be as great as we thought he'd be; WR Vincent Brown, one of the many Aztecs to have suffered a concussion, which can be a capricious injury; and LB Russell Allen, whose exploits have been swallowed up by the monstrous failures of his defensive teammates.

Call 2008 an utter and complete disaster for the football program.

I don't think athletic director Jeff Schemmel helped much when he said coach Chuck Long would absolutely return in 2009. Schemmel's explanation was that Long hasn't had a chance to prove whether he could be a winner with a healthy program, which includes physical health, a full roster and academic success. As bad as the team's injury plague is, there are so many other problems that if Schemmel can't judge Long by now, then there's not much hope for him, either. One gets the impression that Long is only being kept around because his buyout is too expensive, not that he's still wanted. So either Schemmel is dumb or his coach is unwanted. Not good.

I still think that Long needs to be presented with a creative settlement to his buyout clause, perhaps something like what Tennessee is apparently going to do with Phillip Fulmer, spread his payments out over several years. I think if he bows out gracefully now, he has a chance to resume his career elsewhere. People in athletics understand that sometimes you're not a good fit in certain places, and it's no reflection on the person. I think that's a wrong assessment, but I think that's how sports professionals not close to the program will see it. My own view is that the even-handed, steady Long was a perfect fit for the program but he made some horrible choices as his assistant coaches and has been too loyal to those who've served him poorly.

The biggest problem this year besides the injuries has been the management of an offensive unit that was relatively intact until Lindley went down at TCU in early October. Scheme, game plans, play calling and clock management have been such that most high school coaches could do better.

So let's say Long refuses all overtures to leave on his own. Drastic action is needed to place this program back on track. As a hypothetical boss, I would order him to fire both coordinators, his running backs coach, his linebackers coach, his secondary coach and his special teams coach. That's rough, but covers all the underperforming units. The defensive line has sustained seven season-ending injuries and two other hurt players have missed multiple games. Their coach was only brought in for this season, so he gets a pass.

I also think that, with all the injuries -- many of them to young players -- it could take a long time for them to heal. I think the coaches have to take a time-out from their long-term building process and recruit a large number of junior college linemen, along with a JC running back and defensive backs. Because of scholarship limitations, there won't be many recruits anyway, so I think some offers are going to have to be pulled back and redirected for immediate help. The benefit is added depth for the next two seasons and a chance for the current group of youngsters to not have to take all the heat until they're upperclassmen.

Lastly, I also think that whoever is coaching the Aztecs needs to consider not renewing scholarships of underperforming players, a la Steve Fisher after his first year on the Mesa. Man, that was brutal, but it was also necessary and started the men's basketball team down the path toward consecutive NIT and NCAA Tournament seasons. Nothing was as heart-rending as pulling the rug out from under some young men, many of them local, who'd worked so hard to be successful for us on the basketball court, but it had to be done. It might have to be done here, too, in order to free up scholarships for some JC transfers. I'd be on the telephone right now to every JC coach in the country telling him that every job is open but QB and Brown's receiver spot.

Speaking of Fisher, the way Schemmel has handled this mess reminds me of a post this spring about how nice it would have been for Kansas State to take our athletic director home so we could promote Fisher to the AD spot. I think Fisher would be a natural for the position. He doesn't suffer fools gladly. If he was in charge, I don't think Long would have as much rope as he seems to hold now, unless it were a noose.

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Speaking of complete messes, let's bring up the Padres. A team that barely missed a 100-loss season is shopping around it's number one starter? Huh? And the team will get better how? This makes absolutely no sense. So he's going to make big money the next couple of years. Work around it. Sorry.

In the entire National League, there are seven stoppers among starting pitchers, that's it. I'm talking about the unquestioned number ones in a rotation, the kind that can lead you to a World Series title like Cole Hamels did. Besides Peavy and Hamels, you have Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano (who had a sort of off-year) and now Tim Lincecum. CC Sabathia might make an eighth depending on where he ends up. Therefore, these types of pitchers don't grow on trees, know what I mean? Giving one up even for quality elsewhere makes no sense when you might not get a quality number one starter for 20 years. You can always find a good outfielder.

Suggesting that Peavy might be traded is bad enough. That the Dodgers are one of the three top contenders for his services is mind-boggling. If he is dealt to LA, then Kevin Towers and Sandy Alderson should be run out of town. Literally. Maybe they can take Long with them.

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Thank God for USD basketball. And here's a cheer for Hamels, whose high school story was as compelling as any I've reported on. That high school championship game in which he took the mound for the last inning with his teammates and fans yelling encouragement was one of the great moments in local prep sports history.

Otherwise, 2008 has been the worst sports year around here for quite a while.

Truth Hurts for Long, Staff

Last week I wrote that the San Diego State football season opener was the moment of truth for head coach Chuck Long and his staff. Well, the truth is known and it hurts.

The 29-27 loss to Cal Poly, State's second to the Mustangs in three years, demonstrated that Long and his bunch have not only made no progress, but have driven the SDSU program backwards.

The 2006 setback could be chalked up to uncaring players, and play-calling designed to try to toughen them up. This time, the Aztecs were simply manhandled at the line of scrimmage and the defense, in particular, was awful in overpursuing and arm tackling.

Many Aztecs fans, well many of those who remain Aztecs fans and there aren't many anymore, want Long to be fired immediately. I disagree.

There were a number of factors that were out of Long's control that contributed to Saturday's embarrassment. First, Cal Poly was pretty good and experienced for an FCS team, plenty capable of taking advantage of SDSU mistakes. They might contend for a national title in that division. Second, the defensive line came in beat up and things just got worse. Third, WR Roberto Wallace, who otherwise showed a world of potential, dropped several passes at critical moments.

The rest of the problems, like a bad game plan out of the gate, a horrible game by the defensive back seven except for Vonnie Holmes and poor clock management, fall at Long's feet.

So while we need to hold off on judgment right now, Judgment Day is close at hand. Like Sept. 14. By then, the Aztecs will be home from consecutive road contests at Notre Dame and San Jose State. If the Aztecs play well in both games, fine. If not, there are two weeks until the next contest, and Long and or defensive coordinator Bob Elliott will have to go.

It's highly unusual to make changes at this juncture in the season, but if SDSU is killed in both games and get off to an 0-3 start, drastic measures will be necessary. If nothing else, the program will get an infusion of new blood and maybe some fans will decide to keep coming. No one will come watch a thrice-ripped team play at Qualcomm.

If I'm Jeff Schemmel, the athletic director, and I'm getting an earful from rich boosters, my response is to ask whether they're willing to contribute to a contract buyout. I'm also contacting some out-of-work coaching contacts to see they might want to come back to work. Simply losing both games, bad as that prospect sounds, won't be enough to pull the trigger, but getting pounded will.

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The biggest reason Schemmel probably won't do anything is he should then be fired himself. If no one comes to watch the Aztecs play their final five home games, he'll lose his job anyway.

Moment of Truth for SDSU Football and Coach Long

Truth will usually come out in the end. It has a funny way of doing that. Sometimes it takes a while to make itself known, but eventually known it will be.

An interesting non-sports analogy about truth: I covered most of the high-profile 2002 story of the murder of Danielle Van Dam by David Westerfield, who was eventually convicted and sentenced to death. At the end of the case, some doubts persisted. It just made no sense that a guy as accomplished as Westerfield would do something like kill a little girl. After the sentencing, the judge released a number of documents that had been sealed under court order. The truth, yes, had come out. Documents the jury never saw proved without a doubt that the jurors had made the correct decision.

Saturday is the moment of truth for the state of San Diego State football and the regime of head coach Chuck Long. How SDSU performs in its 2008 opener against Cal Poly will tell us a lot about whether Long's staff has made reasonable progress over the past two and a half years.

It's become obvious over time that Long's first two seasons have to be looked upon almost as throwaways. There was not that much talent and very little commitment from holdover players recruited by the previous staff. Freshmen who played on defense in 2007 were too small and too overwhelmed. The offensive line wasn't so good and neither were the running backs.

In 2008, Long is out of excuses. There has to be some serious improvement or he his hiring will be labeled as a major bust. Improvement may not come in the form of a winning record and a bowl game. It could come as 6-6, which would be two wins better than last season. Besides, most fans recognize 2009 as the potential breakthrough season. But only if the Aztecs show some ability this year.

I've often written that Long and his staff are awesome Monday through Friday. It's Saturday that bothered me. Now I want to be happy on Saturday or else.

That said, I'm actually rather confident about this year's prospects. Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley looks like another Todd Santos in the making. Santos, remember, set school passing records as a freshman. The receiving corps with Vincent Brown, Darren Mougey and Roberto Wallace will be the best since Tolver-Osgood if they remain healthy. Wallace has been the Aztecs version of Ruben Rivera, a great athlete from Central America who has taken a while to catch on to a US sport. If he succeeds, watch out. The offensive line has been reshuffled to give some redshirt and true freshman time to develop, which will pay off in the future. I still can't say much for the running back corps.

Perhaps most telling in the opener will be the performance of the defense. Vast improvement is expected and needed from these guys. If the Mustangs move on them and score a lot with their triple-option offense, then this could be a long season. Yet, the line has a solid two-deep now, the linebackers have an extra year of experience and so does the secondary that was rebuilt before 2007. DE BJ Williams, LBs Russell Allen and Luke Laologi, both cornerbacks and both safeties have all-star potential. It's getting them there that's the rub.

Special teams will also be critical to watch. There's new legs at punter and placekicker and a returner in Davion Mauldin who is said to have some great moves.

I'm going to remain optimistic and call this one 35-14 for the Aztecs. A little closer will be okay. A lot closer or, heaven forbid, a loss, will be troubling.

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You have to love Chargers LB Shawne Merriman's guts. His judgment, however, leaves a lot to be desired.

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By the way, I'm now blogging about the Mountain West Conference for College Football News at cfn.scout.com.

Time to Sell Padres, SDSU Offensive Line

It's time for John and Becky Moores to sell the Padres. It's time for new ownership and new management.

I've generally been supportive of the current front office team and their long-term plan, as evidenced by many of my posts on this blog, but my patience wore out with this week's trade of P Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

There's several problems with this. First and foremost, Maddux was the just about the only reason to pay to watch this sorry ballclub. After all, the Padres are a business which needs income from fans who attend ballgames. Seeing a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer make one of the final starts of his career would have brought out some fans to Petco Park. Add to that his race to move past Roger Clemens to become the career winningest modern-day pitcher, and you had a real attraction. That team President Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin Towers let such an opportunity slip away makes me doubt their judgment.

Second, the Padres got nothing for him. Two players out of a list of five lower-level prospects. Towers says they like a couple of those prospects. The trouble is, they're in the lower part of the minor leagues, not the higher part. We've seen, sadly, how far the jump is just from AAA to the majors. These guys think they can figure out which A-ball players are going to become major league contributors? Don't think so. If I really thought that this trade would help the Padres in the long-term, I wouldn't be writing this. You don't trade a marketable Hall of Famer for low-level prospects.

Third, as a general rule, you do nothing to help the Dodgers during a pennant race. It doesn't matter whether your own team is in the race or not. You want to disillusion the fans of San Diego County even more than they already are? Help the Dodgers win the NL West. The Dodgers get a Hall of Fame pitcher and give up low-level prospects that are dime-a-dozen. Replacing them is no big deal. The Padres also have to assume most of the more than $2 million left on Maddux' 2008 salary. On a side note, the Dodgers in the past three weeks-plus have received a pair of Hall of Famers for next to nothing. I think this is a scandal that needs to be investigated. You think Major League Baseball and the TV networks are in a panic over the chances of having an Arizona-Tampa Bay World Series?

Anyway, this whole situation, wrapped up in what has become a dreadful 2008 season, casts grave doubts on the ability of Alderson and Towers to operate this ballclub, especially given the Moores divorce situation. Alderson was brought in to improve the minor league situation, but I'm skeptical over whether things have improved. First-round draft picks have been busts. Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne all are just a little above or a little below .500. Nothing special. Mediocre, each of them, and I think we've all just about had it with mediocre except at the major league level, where it was replaced with just plain awful.

In divorces in community property states, the major assets like houses are generally sold with the revenue divided between the former partners. In the Moores' case, their biggest asset is the Padres. They need to dispose of this franchise, the sooner the better.

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San Diego State football is the number one reason why you never assume anything in sports. It appeared that the Aztecs were going into the 2008 season with as many as three redshirt freshmen starting in the offensive line. That was a huge reason why all the preseason prognosticators rated SDSU as seventh or worse in the Mountain West Conference.

Instead, center Tommie Draheim is out until sometime in October with a shoulder injury, left tackle Mike Matamua is likely to miss the season with a foot injury and none of the others of what was a highly regarded class of linemen two years ago were able to claim the right tackle position.

With converted defender Peter Nelson at left tackle, returning starter Trask Iosefa entrenched at center, and Lance Louis set at right tackle -- along with guard Mike Schmidt -- four of the five starting linemen have game experience.

I'm troubled, however, by the apparent inability of the redshirt freshmen to take this offensive line over. That was the plan -- these guys win the jobs and play together for three or four years and have plenty of depth behind them. I understand the injuries. Draheim, however, was listed number one at center only because Iosefa had to iron out his academic issues. The tackle positions, however, were wide open, as was the guard slot on the other side from Schmidt.

It's incredibly difficult for freshmen, even those who redshirted, to come right in and win an offensive line job and perform effectively. It might be the most difficult position in football for a youngster because of the physical and mental demands.

That none of them have overcome the odds to win jobs for the Aug. 30 opener is worrisome. A major part of the reason why SDSU has been shut out of bowls for 10 years is because the offensive line has not been up to snuff. These guys were supposed to be better, supposed to be an improvement over the upperclassmen and the recently departed. They were supposed to take over and actually start blocking some people.

For now, at least, the Aztecs will go with a junior on quarterback Ryan Lindley's blind side who has not played offensive line in college, a senior former walk-on at guard, a game but too-small center, a junior making his first start and a senior who used to be a tight end and became a guard after injuries.

I worry not only that this scenario will lead to another ineffective offensive line this fall, but will result in Coach Chuck Long and his staff being back at square one at this time next year. Aztecs fans have been psyching up for 2009 like they have a two-week Mediterranean cruise or something. If the blockers are a bunch of newbies again, next year could be as enjoyable as still another cold bath.

Worst Padres, Parker

The San Diego Union-Tribune's Nick Canepa had an interesting column Thursday morning, it can happen, suggesting that the 2008 version of the Padres might be the worst team in franchise history -- mainly because they're really boring.

The Padres are currently the team with the worst record in the National League and are saddled with what the newspaper correctly calls a bunch of AAAA players -- those who've proved themselves at the AAA level but just can't take that next step to the major leagues.

Whether this ends up being the worst team, though, is questionable. First, from a pure won-loss perspective, the Friars would have to go 14-46 in their remaining 60 games to equal the 111-loss 1969 expansion team. To just reach 100 losses, they'd have to go 24-36, which is certainly within reach. Add one more setback and they'd equal the low-water mark of more recent seasons, set in 1993 during the fire sale.

As bad as the Padres are, I don't think they'll go 14-46 to finish the year. Reaching 100 losses won't shock me, however.

Also compare the product on the field. The current Padres have a budding star in 1B Adrian Gonzalez, a promising rookie in LF Chase Headley, a solid pro in RF Brian Giles, a true #1 starter in Jake Peavy and the National League's top closer for more than a decade in Trevor Hoffman. Oh, yeah, no matter how much he's been struggling lately, P Greg Maddux is a first-ballot lock for the Hall of Fame. Everyone else stinks, but that's not a bad core for the fans to enjoy.

In 1993, the Padres had RF Tony Gwynn, of course. Beyond that were OF Gary Sheffield and IB Fred McGriff for about a half-season each before they were traded. Sheffield brought Hoffman. No one knew what P Andy Ashby would become and he wouldn't even give us a hint for two more years. Pitchers Andy Benes and Greg Harris had their moments. The Padres up the middle had Kevin Higgins at C, Jeff Gardner at 2B, Ricky Gutierrez at SS and Derek Bell in CF. I was around and following the Padres in those days and I completely forget Higgins and Gardner. Not even seeing their names in print brings recollection.

The 1973 and 1974 Padres each lost 102 games. Those were the squads that brought Dave Winfield to the bigs. Clay Kirby lost 18 the first year. Randy Jones lost 22 the next before went on his run of outstanding seasons. Nate Colbert led the '73 club with 80 RBI but fell out of favor the next season, replaced by aging Willie McCovey, who brought some curiousity and star power. In '74, no one hit above .286 nor won more than 9 games.

So I think it's a leap to say this team is worse than those teams. There's very little to be said about those teams. On the other hand, what happens if Peavy and Chris Young are healthy and effective in 2009 and they sign or develop a quality catcher? An extra year benefits both Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff? Jody Gerut finds consistency? Then maybe 2008 is an abberation.

I can certainly tell you that 1993, 1969, 1973 and 1974 led to nothing.

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I, for one, will miss Eric Parker. I love hard-working pros and good people, and he was both. However, he was mediocre as a receiver and the Chargers are right to be trying to upgrade their level of talent. Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis are all better than Parker and those below him deserve their shot. That said, I hope he does well and catches on somewhere.

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I support Chargers GM AJ Smith in his reported prioritization that could cost the Bolts DE Igor Olshanksy after this year. The guy is good, no question, but recently re-signed DE Luis Castillo is better and Smith also has to find salary room for QB Philip Rivers, Chambers, Jackson, LT Marcus McNeill and LB Shawne Merriman. Those guys have contracts that run a year later than Olshansky, but there's so many of them that the extensions have to start coming now, as Castillo's did.

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Despite some minor off-field setbacks, my confidence is growing that San Diego State can get back up to 6-6 this year. They're doing most everything right for a change, and that has to pay off sooner or later. And the odds have to swing back into their favor at some point. If the defensive line can tie up opposing blockers at all, the Aztecs linebackers and safeties could become terrors.

Booing Trevor

I talked to a couple people Wednesday about the supposed booing of Trevor Hoffman when the Padres closer walked off the field the previous night after giving up a pair of home runs to Twins batters. With the TV coverage heading to a commercial, their response was that they didn't actually hear any booing. However, reporters and players at Petco most definitely did notice it.

My reaction is simple. Sure, Hoffman is a San Diego icon and has done much for Padres fans and the community at large over the years. But to say he's off-limits for booing is just off-base.

Major leage baseball is not the game it was back when I was growing up, when you'd pay 5 bucks and it was nice if your team won and a "shame" if you lost, but no big deal. Baseball is a high stakes sport now when you go to Petco Park and pay $27 for the right to sit in right field. When I go downtown and pay $45 to watch a baseball game within the infield, I want to see the Padres score runs, I want to see Jake Peavy shut down the opposition, I want to cheer to "Hell's Bells" and I want to see Hoffman end the contest by making someone look foolish with his changeup. If I don't get what I want, I have a right to boo.

Plus, I think that most of the people who booed Hoffman have cheered him numerous times in the past and really don't suddenly hate the guy. He threw two bad pitches and got rocked. You get rocked, you get booed. Tonight's another night.

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Steve Fisher has finally landed a legitimate big man in Illinois transfer Brian Carlwell. He's listed at 6-11 and 245 pounds, something the Aztecs have lacked in the post almost since Fisher arrived. He has to sit out next season, darn it, but could give SDSU quite a front line when paired up with Billy White and Tim Shelton.

While he was highly regarded coming out of high school, Illinois people seemed to consider him a project and a quick scan of an Illini fan site didn't show any anguish at his departure.

Padres Conumdrum, Football Pre-season Camps

The San Diego Union-Tribune offered an interesting question Tuesday in pointing out that the Padres are, entering tonight's game vs the Twins, are 13 games below .500 and in the bottom half of the National League in nearly every important statistic, but the National League West has been so unexpectedly bad that the Friars are only 8 games out of first place -- a margin that can easily be closed with another decent winning streak.

So, to borrow from the article's headline, are the Padres buyers or sellers? Club President Sandy Alderson said he's taking a wait-and-see approach, meaning nothing dramatic is likely to happen until we get closer to the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.

I think that's probably the right approach, barring some other team calling with a generous offer, say A-Rod in exchange for Cla Meredith. Hey, a guy can dream, right?

While I think I would take Alderson's approach, I think the Padres are going to end up in the seller's camp. The recent series vs the Yankees and Tigers, in which they were 1-5, showed they're just not close to being ready for prime time. They beat up on the sagging Mets and the struggling Dodgers to make themselves look decent a couple weeks ago, but interleague play has been a reality check.

One question that's been raised lately has been whether to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff, who has not displayed the power expected of him so far at third base. He's batting just .263 with only 33 RBI through nearly half the season and more than two-thirds of his hits have merely been singles. I don't mind a power-hitter who can shorten up the stroke when the situation calls for it, but I want him to be hitting .300 if that's the case. Still, Kouz is only a sophomore as a regular, and I'd hate to see him go. Depends on the offer, you know? Otherwise, the front office planned for a power offense based on Kouz at third and Chase Headley in left and ought to stay on that track.

As I see it, the Padres have two black holes, catcher and second base. The Padres might have the worst catching in the majors. Outfield, an area that I called AAAA quality before the season, might have some promise with Chase Headley, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles having a pretty good season. But Michael Barrett is at .187 and Luke Carlin is hitting at a .172 clip. I sorta like Carlin, but that's not cutting it. When Tadahito Iguchi is ready to return to second base, I'm not going to be too excited. The Friars should keep Edgar Gonzalez and his bat right there next to little bro.

Don't look for someone else to come from the minors. While Matt Antonelli is reportedly coming around some, his batting average is still far under the Mendoza line. The pitchers mentioned in the article? A couple have ERAs over 6 and have allowed far more hits than innings pitched. The problem in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League isn't just hits, its that average fly balls go for home runs. So while ERAs will be inflated while it seems like you're in old-style Coors Field every start, your hits-to-innings pitched ratio should still be reasonable.

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When I was running Sandiegosportstown.com. one of my best photos was of Rancho Bernardo High P Brandon Burke. He came up to me one day with a smile and told me how much he and his family enjoyed the photo. I appreciated the comment, since my photography mostly stunk.

Now Burke's Fresno State Bulldogs are in the finals of the College World Series, and he's a key part of it. I'm rooting for him.

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If the baseball talk is getting you down, Chargers pre-season camp begins July 25. SDSU is supposed to start the first week of August.

San Diego's Greatest Sports Events

The San Diego Union-Tribune had a list Wednesday of the greatest sports events in San Diego, putting the recently completed U.S. Open golf tournament third.

A pretty good list, I think. I put together a number of such lists when I had Sandiegosportstown.com, but the the lists of greatest sports events I made used some different criteria. I think Bill Center was looking for things more national in scope, where San Diego made an impact on sports fans across the United States. Me, I was looking for local impact. Therefore, my list of the greatest local sports events included two from the high school level: Mt. Carmel's stirring girls basketball Division I final victory over El Camino and the Division IV boys basketball semifinals at Cuyamaca College in which Lincoln downed Christian on a three-pointer at the buzzer and Bishop's upset Horizon on a three-quarter court last-second desperation heave. Both were awesome, but no one outside the county would care.

Using Center's criteria, I think adding the America's Cup as suggested by some readers makes sense, certainly over a horse race and even Super Bowl XXXII. The San Diego State football victory over Florida State is a good pick, but from what I've read of SDSU's past, a 36-0 wipe-out of then small-college #1 North Dakota State before 35,000 at Balboa Stadium came with great drama and served as a springboard to Division I status. The Holiday Bowl game might also be included. I could also see USD's 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament championship victory over Gonzaga being on the list. Or this year's, since it led to an NCAA Tournament win.

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Chase Headley is finally called up by the Padres and in his first game gets two hits in Yankee Stadium. Nice.

College Football Previews Are Coming

Seeing the San Diego State preview on Collegefootballnews.com has me thinking about the possibilities of the upcoming fall season. The CFN analysis is fair and has only a couple minor details wrong that a national media organization would be unlikely to be aware of, anyway.

Their view of SDSU is pretty much in line with my own thinking. Once coach Chuck Long gets his recruits some experience, they have a chance to be pretty good. The only question is how long it will take for them to jell. Most of the predictions put the Aztecs at last, or close to last, in the Mountain West Conference, mainly because the writers know that most of a porous defense returns and they have no idea who the new players on offense are. That's okay. If the defensive line progresses as expected, the stoppers might end up being pretty decent this year. The offense, with new starters across the line, at quarterback and at two receiving spots, is a project. Hopefully, the preview writers will know the names of the offensive players by this time next year.

What worries a lot of fans of the Aztecs is that the offense showed next to nothing this spring. The defense dominated, no question. Me, I'm not so concerned about spring performance. For the offense, anyway, it was all about learning. For the players to discover what it was like to actually participate in a meaningful way. For the coaches to determine which guys were on track for a productive 2008 season.

My worry is about the usual Aztec issue: the hole. Football teams on Montezuma Mesa are usually filled with talent, but there's always an empty space somewhere to let them down. This year, there are two holes likely to slow whatever progress Long and Company have made.

-- Kicker. Steady Garrett Palmer is gone, to be replaced by sophomore transfer Bryan Shields, a hometown boy from Bonita. CFN describes him as having a big leg. What worries me is that a young offensive line is likely to struggle most in the red zone, which will leave Shields a lot of opportunities. Fans could trust Palmer inside the 40. Shields? Don't know. I need accuracy, not a boomer.

-- Cornerback. I have yet to be impressed by Aaron Moore and, while Vonnie Holmes seems to have a nose for the football, it's only on an occasional basis. No question they were hampered by a lack of a pass rush last year, but even if there's no pressure on the opposing QB this year, I'm not so sure those two can hold up their end of the bargain. Behind them are former Oceanside HS standout Jose Perez, who was a tremendous prep athlete only a half-notch below the Reggie Bush-Patrick Gates level, but is completely untested at the college level. Sophomores Romeo Horn and DeyJuan Hemmings are also in the mix, but I've never heard of either being more than warm bodies unless they suddenly develop.

Interestingly, the defense is also where you'll find the strength of the team. The safety combination of senior Corey Boudreaux and sophomore Martrell Fantroy -- who could be an All-MWC player this season -- is as good as there is in the conference. There's very good depth behind them.

You also have quality linebacker Russell Allen and some guys who looked like they had some potential in their first seasons: Luke Laologi, Andrew Preston and Jerry Milling. Passing them all up could be redshirt freshman Miles Burris, who appeared lost at times this spring, but when he was on, he was a beast. Burris is likely getting significant snaps by October, if not sooner.

The one other worry I have is at running back, where there is no star nor anyone who looks to have star potential. I never quite got the hoopla over Brandon Sullivan, who seems to me to make nice depth and is decent at catching the ball out of the backfield. There's too small Atiyyah Henderson again and the back who had a good spring, Devon Brown, who is also small.

Long really has to make a recruiting push at the position and bring in Cathedral Catholic's Tyler Gaffney or, since he's one of only a few top prep senior ball-carriers out west, find a JC nugget. I hope Sullivan or Brown (or both) prove me wrong.

The schedule is favorable in some respects. The non-conference games in September go Cal Poly, at Notre Dame, at San Jose State and Idaho. No one really expects to beat the Fighting Irish in South Bend, but catching them in their opener might give the Aztecs a chance to be competitive. Figuring the other two are all but sure victories, the San Jose State game could be the key to reaching six wins this year. The Spartans aren't very good, but they've been tough at home in recent years and beat the Aztecs up there two years ago. It's a sad state of affairs when you can look at a schedule and not list SJSU as a sure win, but nowadays it's a hump SDSU has to climb over.

If things are going well heading into MWC play, then home games vs Air Force, Colorado State and UNLV should be winnable. Any stumbles, or if there are hopes of reaching seven wins, they'll have to snag wins either at New Mexico, at Wyoming, or at home vs a very good Utah team.

I think 7 wins are possible, 6 wins are realistic, and 5 wins are likely. A five-win season would continue a win-total improvement of a game each season under Long. Six wins would probably not have been enough for a bowl last year but could be in 2008 because there are a couple more post-season games. A lot of things will have to go right, including health and the development of the offensive line, for the Aztecs to finish 7-5.

That said, no matter what you read, Long is not on the hot seat this season. Unless this fall brings a complete disaster, including another loss to Cal Poly, then Long will stick around to see what 2009 brings. This upcoming season is the year his recruits get their feet wet. The next season will be the one in which Long and his staff are judged.

Winning Streaks by Bad Padres Nothing New

After five straight wins, including a four-game series sweep of the Mets and a league record four consecutive wins by a score of 2-1, a lesson in Padres history is in order.

The Padres once won 14 games in a row. In that glorious streak, they twice swept three-game sets from the Dodgers, took four straight from the Rockies and began the string with a three-game sweep of the Pirates. They won one more in Colorado before the streak ended in a 12-10 slugfest.

Among the interesting things about the streak, Matt Clement and Brian Boehringer each won three games. The first game saw savior-to-never-be Ruben Rivera knock two home runs. Rivera homered and doubled in a win over LA to raise his batting average to .208. The Padres scored 13 runs at the Q vs Colorado when Rockies pitchers issued 10 walks. In another game vs the Rox, Damian Jackson stole five bases. The Padres beat the Dodgers on an RBI single by Jackson in the 12^th inning. Trevor Hoffman saved the first five wins and nine of the 14.

Alas, the final victory in the streak merely evened the Padres record at 39-39 and pulled them within 5 games of the first place Giants. The year was 1999, a season removed from the World Series and the beginning of a tailspin that would keep postseason baseball out of America’s Finest City until 2005.

The Padres finished that season 74-88. That number again – 14 – games below .500 in fourth place.

So we have history now that bad Friars teams can put together nice winning streaks. Maybe they’ll continue to improve through 2008 and actually put pressure on the suddenly vulnerable Diamondbacks. As the history lesson demonstrates, maybe not.

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One of the nice stories of the baseball season so far is the rise of Red Sox rookie P Justin Masterson, who played at San Diego State. He’s 2-0 after three starts, has allowed just 11 hits in 18 innings and has struck out 14 batters.

Call him a late-bloomer. In his only season on the Mesa, Masterson was 6-7 with an ERA of 4.81. There’s been better pitchers at SDSU, but he appears to have a great pro future ahead of him.

Hoffman, Prior Prove to be Mortal; Gwynn

Among the many things not in the blueprint for the San Diego Padres this year was baseball mortality for star closer Trevor Hoffman and once-time ace starter Mark Prior.

I don't think anyone expected Hoffman to be what he once was, but I don't think anyone believed that 2008's precipitous decline would happen, either. True that in Sunday's blown save opportunity, the Giants never hit a ball hard and that he'd converted his previous eight save opportunities. But he also lost two games in that stretch and gave up five hits and two runs in a pair of innings pitched against Cincinnati. His ERA is up to 5.68 and he's allowed 27 baserunners in 19 innings -- not good when you're normally brought in at the beginning of the ninth.

Like the last time this came up, in April when he was struggling, I don't advocate replacing Hoffman right now. The Giants seeing-eye singles and Edgar Gonzalez' misplay could very well be an aberration, and Hoffman deserves the chance to prove that such was the case. But, like before, we have to keep a close eye on him and not keep running him out there so he can lose leads -- which for the Padres are preciously few.

One of the advantages that Manager Bud Black has right now, which he didn't have in April, is an effective Heath Bell, who in his last seven appearances has allowed no runs, three hits and one walk. Black should accord Bell the occasional save opportunity no matter what Hoffman is up to.

Prior, meanwhile, will have season-ending surgery on his shoulder before ever coming close to making a return to the mound. It was a high-stakes gamble for the Padres to sign him in the first place, where if he'd returned to health and form, he'd be a real asset for the pitching staff. Alas, it didn't happen. I think it was a worthy try by the front office. However, I now wonder whether the USDHS alum will ever be able to pitch again.

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It's June. Do you know where your Chase Headley is? The youngster hit his 10th home run for AAA Portland Sunday and has a .306 batting average. Time to stick him in Petco.

Seems to me this is the day I previously mentioned for his call up.

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Tony Gwynn has just completed his sixth year as the head baseball coach at San Diego State, and if that's not proof that times flies, nothing is. Speaking of things unexpected, Gwynn has not built SDSU into a perennial post-season ball club. Circumstances dictate that he should be given a seventh year at the helm of the program, but for him to have an eighth, his Aztecs darn well better be playing in June.

Gwynn's Aztecs have been a portrait in mediocrity, frankly. They have years that they can't pitch, others when they can't hit and still others when fielding blunders cost them mightily.

He gets a pass for this year's failure to reach the NCAA Regionals because they lost nearly their entire pitching staff from the previous season. They brought in a bunch of new guys, and like first-year players, many of them struggled. Sophomore Stephen Strasburg became a first-team All-American as named by Collegiate Baseball, but everyone else struggled. Much of the conference season saw Strasburg shut out the Aztecs opponent on Friday night, followed by two weekend games in which the other team scored in double digits. Hard to fault Gwynn for a full-scale change in the pitching staff.

Next year, though, he either gets these pitchers "coached up" and some of his young sluggers performing consistently, or the program is going to need to make a change.

There is no excuse whatsoever for the Aztecs to not win the pathetic Mountain West Conference regular season and/or tournament title with its automatic bid four out of every six years. Every so often, BYU and TCU will be good enough to snag a championship. So be it.

Gwynn only has won a regular season championship in his first season and has yet to guide the Aztecs to the NCAA Regionals. His seat is now hot.

"Wholesale Changes" For Padres Cut to the Bone

An angry Padres' General Manager Kevin Towers threatened to make wholesale changes to the roster after yet another loss Monday night as several players passed by where he was talking to reporters.

I would bet that part of this was a ploy to motivate the players -- make them worry about their jobs -- or that they'd have to spend the summer in Cincinnati rather than Southern California. If not, then maybe wholesale changes are really coming.

Here's my analysis for what that means.

First, as always for a team considering roster changes, you have to list the untouchables. I count three: Jake Peavy, Chris Young and -- for sentimental reasons only -- Trevor Hoffman.

Second, the players you'd rather not lose if you don't have to are Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and maybe Shawn Estes. You don't get better by losing your young talent in the first two instances. In the latter, Estes has gone through so much in the past two years as a Padres property that it would be nice for him to get his payoff with the team that stayed with him.

Finally, the bubble, the players you'd rather not lose but very well might are Heath Bell and Khalil Greene. Sure, Bell has struggled this season after throwing a ton of innings in 2007 but he's better than anyone else in the bullpen. Teams aiming for a pennant race will love a right-handed setup man who has the ability to close when called upon. Greene's mental approach -- by far his biggest problem in my book -- could change outside Petco Park so he would be tantalizing to a ballclub in a pennant race with needs at short.

Everyone else, including minor leaguer Chase Headley, is up for grabs. My bet is that only those listed above, plus a still sometimes effective Greg Maddux and maybe, maybe, Randy Wolf, would return someone worth having.

The Padres front office really needs to keep their eyes on the ball, their long-term plan to rebuild the organization top to bottom. No sense trading minor league talent for a major leaguer to help in this lost cause of a season. I'd much rather see Towers package a couple big leaguers for a quality minor league prospect.

With the Padres being set for the future at the top of the rotation, I'd like to see Towers acquire a young pitcher with number three starter potential, and a couple of position prospects.

The playoffs were never in the cards this season, though I don't think anyone outside radio talk show host Lee Hamilton -- let's give credit where it's due -- foresaw how bad things would get. Towers and the rest of the front office were blindsided, that we know. I just hope that all the losing doesn't force any desperation moves.

XTRA 1360 Disappoints in Ratings

All you need to know about the failure of XTRA Sports AM-1360 to score in the winter Arbitron ratings (as noted in The San Diego Union-Tribune, second item) can be found on the station's Web page, which is xtrasports1360.com

First is the title, which includes the number 1360. Generally, anything to the right of 1200 on the AM dial is considered to be a graveyard. Because of physics, signals are weaker the higher you go in frequency. So stronger stations migrate down the dial toward 600 (very strong KOGO), and 760 (oft-strong KFMB). It's why you could hear the old XTRA 690 "from Baja to the Canadian Rockies" but can't listen to the new XTRA in Rancho Bernardo.

Actually, I'm being conservative in calling everything to the right of 1200 a graveyard. KNX 1070 in Los Angeles is the only major 4-digit station I can think of off-hand.

Second, look at the front page of the site. The centerpiece rotates promotions for the Dave & Jeff morning show that includes NBA and NHL players -- leagues in which San Diego is not represented -- a Dallas Cowboy and a baseball player whom I think is wearing a uniform of the Baltimore Orioles. Then comes the Babe of the Day and an NBA playoff bracket.

Elsewhere on the front page are national sports headlines, links to non-sports features like Angelina Jolie admitting that she's having twins, a link to a page of national baseball stories, links to has-been rock groups like Def Leppard and Dokken and a link to photographs of young women who've taken digital photographs of themselves in various states of undress.

One look at this page and you immediately get the idea that these guys aren't exactly serious about local sports.

Go deeper into the Web pages of the hosts and only a couple comments were actually posted this week. One or two on the Padres. One apologizes for not updating recently and states that he hopes to update once a week. That was posted April 7 -- his most recent post.

Now, they're much better on the air than the Web site reflects and the ratings shutout demonstrates. The weak signal and Clear Channel's lack of promotion is killing them. I've met and like Jeff Dotseth, Mike Costa, Craig Elsten and Brian Wilson -- someone who interned for me when he was in college and for whom I hope nothing but the best. Things aren't working out as they are now, that's for sure. One of the easiest and least expensive ways to attract an audience will be actually having some local sports information on the station's Web site.

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There is a major outside factor working against XTRA, and 1090 which fell in the winter book, and ESPN Radio, which I'm not sure has ever made the cut. That's a lack of compelling local sports stories out there. The winter book basically covers San Diego State men's basketball a team which performed well below expectations. People are generally satisfied with the Chargers. The Padres stink. No one cares about Aztecs football anymore.

By comparison, when I ran SanDiegoSportsTown.com, my cup runneth over in great stories at the pro, college and high school levels. There are still some interesting things going on, like the Torrey Pines swimmers who have a shot at the Olympics and the SDSU softball team, but nothing you can base an entire sports radio station on.

The thing that could save XTRA would be a big SDSU football season, but that's not likely until the fall of 2009. By then, it could be too late.

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Funniest statement of the week: Padres manager Bud Black offering so much praise for Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster. No, Bud, your team would struggle at the plate in AAA.

Trade The Padres Have to Make

While I've mentioned that the Padres should and probably will keep their roster moves to a minimum, there is one trade that I think needs to be made. They need to acquire Tony Gwynn Jr. from Milwaukee.

Gwynn has been unable to bust into an outfield of Mike Cameron, Corey Hart and converted 3B Ben Braun in Milwaukee and has just come off the disabled list. He's hitting .304 in limited action this season after two straight .260 campaigns. He can run and play defense, which is desperately needed at Petco Park. Put him at the top of the lineup, move Jody Gerut to LF and then maybe you have something that might work. It's at least worth trying.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee's staff ERA is in the bottom quarter of all major league baseball teams and they haven't collected a win from a starter other than Ben Sheets since the first week of the season. Eric Gagne, who we'll address in a second, has blown several save opportunities. The Padres can give up Justin Germano or Randy Wolf without too much pain, or Shawn Estes or Wilfredo Ledezma.

The timing is also good for two other reasons:

1. The Padres plan to send Callix Crabbe to the minors early this week. As a Rule V guy, he has to be offered back to Milwaukee first, so the Padres plan to work out a deal. Padres get Gwynn and keep Crabbe, Brewers get a pitcher or two.

2. Weekday attendance is way down and fans are either sniping at the Padres or laughing at them. Neither one is good. Bringing Gwynn home would be a feel-good move as well as a smart baseball play.

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Luke Carlin. The Padres call him up from the minors and stick him behind the plate. They win twice. Keep him there. The guy knows how to play.

I like Gerut, too. Seems more comfortable after his AAA stint.

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Roger Clemens is the poster boy for the baseball steroids controversy and that's fine. I have no idea whom to believe so I'll wait for the evidence to come out.

The issue that affected us more directly as Padres fans is Eric Gagne, who if he's not the poster child, should have a small insert of his bespectacled face on a lower corner of Clemens' leg or something. In 2002, Gagne went from average starter to spectacular closer, saving 52, 55, and 45 games in consecutive seasons as the Dodgers placed third, second and first in the National League West. The Dodgers collapsed into fourth place in 2005 when he was injured.

I think it's safe to say that since LA won the division in 2004 by only two games over San Francisco, that a fueled-up Gagne was the reason why, so their division title and all records thereof should be stripped. With Barry Bonds in San Francisco, the 2004 NL West title should either be vacated entirely or handed to the third-place Padres, who were six games back in the standings.

Major League Baseball doesn't do such things, though, as the NCAA and college conferences do. College teams have their titles stripped all the time for rules violations. MLB shrugs, which is why things build up to a point where they get out of hand, like in the steroids controversy.

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OF Carlos Quentin, the University of San Diego High School graduate now with the Chicago White Sox, is leading the American League with 9 HR and that new on-base percentage plus slugging percentage statistic, and is among the league leaders in runs scored, total bases and RBIs. He also leads in being beaned.

Good news, bad news for Padres fans:

Quentin could have been doing this for the Diamondbacks, but they sent him packing to give Justin Upton his shot. But between the D-backs outfield castoffs, the Padres ended up with Scott Hairston instead of the local kid. Quentin would be doing none of this at Petco, but he's playing better than Hairston.

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There you go, a San Diego County outfield for the Padres: Quentin-Gwynn-Giles, San Diego-Poway-El Cajon. Oh, well.

Padres Release Edmonds; Make Room For Chase

The Padres, as expected, cut ties Friday with CF Jim Edmonds, the free agent pickup who was batting just .178 with a home run and 6 RBI through yesterday. They promoted Jody Gerut from AAA Portland, where he was batting .308 with 5 dingers and 18 RBI.

That much you probably already know.

Here's the real news. Clear room in LF for Chase Headley. He's coming soon.

Headley, as mentioned several times in this blog, got off to a rotten start in Portland, coming off a 2007 when he was the AA Player of the Year. Forget the bad start. As recognized in Baseball America, Headley is hitting .516 in May after a 5-for-5 performance Thursday. The hot streak includes 3 doubles and a home run.

The Padres still should keep him in the minor leagues as long as possible, if some sort of Paul McAnulty/Scott Hairston platoon can be productive in left field. Unless those two drop deeper into the tank, the Friars can probably afford to keep him in the minors until the end of May. But June 1 is kind of a marker in baseball, akin to the trading deadline and deadline for playoff rosters. Unless PMac or Hairston go on a tear, look for Headley in left in Petco in time for a June 2 contest against Chicago.

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All the talk lately has been about the moves the Padres have to make to keep from worsening the majors' worst record. Besides the release of Edmonds and the upcoming promotion of Headley, don't look for much else.

No other minor leaguers appear to merit promotion at this time. Only Kenny Lofton appears enticing as a free agent. And with a lot of baseball teams hovering around the .500 mark, the Padres are the only franchise in the trade market. Even if the trade market was more active, the Friars really have nothing of value to offer. The majors team stinks, and the promising youngsters are either in AA or just hit AAA this season.

The Padres will make some adjustments on the 2008 roster where they can, but will otherwise stick to their long-term plan. That's the correct course given their circumstances. As for me, when do the Chargers and Aztecs preseason camps start?

Newspaper Pulling No Punches on Padres

Usually news writers are a little cautious in how they characterize their subjects. They'll quote the opinions of others for example, so they don't have to directly say what they think. Not so with The San Diego Union-Tribune's coverage of the Padres this year. Primary beat writer Tom Krasovic thinks the Friars suck and isn't afraid to come right out and say so.

Just today, in a recap of the Padres 10-3 loss at Florida Sunday, he called the team "unathletic" and "slow-footed." There's plenty of other examples of Krasovic directly smacking the Padres. He's also slanting his coverage in items about the Padres getting desperate, about how poor scouting and poor drafting has hurt the franchise, etc.

Now, Krasovic is right on the money with his analysis. I have no problem with that at all. His approach, very direct, is interesting.

His colleague, Chris Jenkins, who covers baseball in general, added to the chorus Sunday by basically saying the Padres were out of the race in the National League West. Of course, it's way too early, but we've seen the Friars and we've seen the Diamondbacks. Okay, the race is all but over.

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If my memory is correct, the reason why the Padres brass soured on former manager Bruce Bochy was his reluctance to play youngsters, favoring veterans instead.

Fast forward to this season and you can see where the front office placed too much faith in this year's aging former stars. Brian Giles is down to .259, not playing too well defensively and was caught in a rundown -- who'd have thunk? -- on Sunday; Khalil Greene is at .220 with a single home run and Jim Edmonds, likely to go down as one of the Padres worst free agent signings ever is at .177 with just 6 RBI.

Some of the pitchers are just as bad. Glendon Rusch and Trevor Hoffman both have ERAs over 6. Greg Maddux is 0-3 with a no decision in his past four starts in his quest for 350 victories. Yesterday, and in another start he got pounded.

I have a bigger problem with the position players than the pitchers at this point. We've seen Trevor struggle previously and work his way out of it. Maddux can be vulnerable if he's not perfect on every pitch, but usually is masterful. Giles and Edmonds are on the downsides of their career, though, and Greene appears very likely to never fulfill his vast potential, at least not in San Diego.

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What troubles me about this season is not so much that the 2008 Padres are bad, but that the minor league hot shots expected to replace the current major leaguers over the next two years are stalling out in AAA Portland. The numbers for Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli are about what they were in previous posts. P Wade LeBlanc is also having a hard time.

I'm all for keeping with the long term plan to wait for the minor leaguers to develop, but if they don't in fact develop, the Padres could suck for the next decade.

Don't Blow up Powerless Padres, Draft

As the Padres begin the week in last place in the National League West, 8 1/2 games behind front-running Arizona, it's tempting to want to blow things up and start over. But this is the wrong year for hysteria, the wrong time for rash moves.

A couple of the guys who are struggling, 2B Tadahito Iguchi and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, are just as likely to catch fire in the next couple of weeks as anything. SS Kahlil Greene, who has yet to hit a fair ball over an outfield fence, we know he's streaky.

The real problems with the Padres are with their over-the-hill and never-was outfield. Brian Giles has been decent with 3 HR and 15 RBI and 14 BB in the leadoff slot, but is batting just .255. The other three in the rotation: Jim Edmonds is at .164-1-6, Scott Hairston is .184-2-6, and Paul McAnulty is .231-2-6. I have no faith, as I do the struggling infielders, that they will turn things around. That said, McAnulty looks like the best of the group not named Giles.

Huge changes right now would be a mistake, however. The Padres have in place a long-term plan and they need to stick to it. The Chase Headley spring training experiment was a tease. The fact is, he needs significant time in AAA before coming up to the big club. His current line of .222-1-8 in Portland tells lots. Same with Matt Antonelli (.216-2-6) and C Nick Hundley (.245-4-7).

You're not going to get lightning in a bottle from the kids this year, so a free agent signing or trade would seem to be in order.

Jake Peavy might be onto something by suggesting a pickup of 40-year-old Kenny Lofton for the outfield. He hit a combined .296 with 7 HR for Texas and Cleveland last year and is not on a roster right now. He also stole an un-Friarlike 23 bases. Lofton would, like Edmonds, be a placeholder for the future and certainly could not be any worse. Plus, according to the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, he is working out at his home in Arizona with hopes of playing more. The team brass will have to admit they whiffed on Edmonds, which could make such a signing impossible.

I wouldn't go much farther in changing up the club. No, no Barry Bonds.

A trade would require exchanging young talent for immediate help and that goes against the plan. No one is going to help the Padres take Edmonds or Hairston off their hands. Not happening. Sending Nick Hundley somewhere else for a guy who hits .245 instead of .160 won't do much for the franchise's future.

So, aside from taking Peavy up on the Lofton idea, I'd bite the bullet and not make more than some minor adjustments. Let the future of the franchise remain the future and develop according to their needs, not ours. That means the 2008 season is over, but no one really expected to compete anyway.

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I have to admit I like what the Chargers pulled out of the NFL draft, despite their inability to choose an offensive lineman until their last pick. The fact is, everyone they wanted at tackle and at corner -- their main desires heading into the affair -- were gone by the time they got to the 27th selection of the first round. Antoine Cason was what remained, and they got a four-year starter in college who should be a solid nickel corner. Jacob Hester was a fine running back, at a position where they needed some depth but obviously were not desperate with the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson around.

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Perhaps the biggest surprise of the draft was that four San Diego State players were taken, when pre-draft projections only had two -- one of whom ended up not being among the lucky four.

QB Kevin O'Connell was rewarded for his skills, leadership and personality with a third-round selection. The fortunes of football are such that he was taken by the New England Patriots. So the love-fest is over. We have to hate him now. How does one actually go about rooting against Kevin O'Connell? Really. That's going to be a difficult proposition.

Tyler Schmitt has been rated throughout his Aztec career as one of the nation's best long snappers, so maybe his selection by the Seattle Seahawks was not much of a shock. WRs Brett Swain and Chaz Schilens were also late-round picks.

This brings up the age-old question of: if so many Aztecs go to the NFL, why is the team always so bad? The answer, in a nutshell, is that none of those picked were offensive or defensive linemen. Job one for coach Chuck Long and his staff has been to upgrade the players in the trenches. The upcoming season will reveal their progress in that area.

Chargers Need Lineman in Draft

Despite what gets said occasionally in the media, the San Diego Chargers do have a need in this weekend's NFL draft, one that can be filled with their first round pick. They need an offensive lineman.

Right now, the Bolts are set on the left side with Kris Dielman and Marcus McNeill, and are in decent shape at center with Nick Hardwick -- my only reservation with him being injuries. The right side, though, is turning into a liability. Mike Goff is 32 years old and I never heard of Jeromey Clary ever being projected as a starting tackle on a Super Bowl team.

That's what we're talking about, going from a good team that reached the AFC Championship contest to a great one that can maybe host such a game, win, and go on to the Super Bowl. That being the goal, then the Chargers have needs.

While LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 1,474 yards last season, he seemed to be stopped quite a bit early in the season. His backups gained just 380 combined. Philip Rivers was sacked 22 times last year and Billy Volek twice. Tom Brady of New England was sacked one less time than Rivers but threw the ball over a hundred times more through the season. When Rivers wasn't tackled for a loss, he was running for his life quite often.

Both stars, of course, are plying their trade in the uncomfortable parameters of the NFL, where even the weaker defenses can slow rushing attacks and assault quarterbacks. That's why the Bolts need to have as good an offensive line as possible. I felt they were successful last year in spite of their line, not because of them. So help is needed.

Whether General Manager A.J. Smith takes a lineman is questionable. From the moment he set foot in San Diego, he's shown a low regard for blockers. The Chargers paid the price the first few years he and the late-John Butler were here. Plus, dominant linemen coming out of college are few and far-between. The best of them are gone by late in the first round, which is where the Bolts will choose someone. There could very well be a better choice available at linebacker, cornerback or waterboy by the time the 27th pick rolls around. If so, then that's where you go. If a really good lineman is still on the board, then snap him up.

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San Diego State's Kevin O'Connell is ranked as the eighth best QB in the draft and, although I've had my criticisms of him in the past, I'd take him over the first three guys listed above him (Erik Ainge of Tennessee, John David Booty of USC and Andre Woodson of Kentucky). We'll see if the NFL GMs agree. Continuing a pattern of sparse draft talent available on the Mesa, O'Connell will probably be the only Aztec drafted. That's got to change.

USD QB Josh Johnson, the victim of poor workouts, is rated 11th.

Doubles, Departures Support Recent Posts

Tuesday's sports activities vindicated two recent posts on this blog, one in a good way and one bad.

The good: the Padres finally added doubles to their arsenal and look what happened. Three 2-run doubles and they defeat the Rockies 6-0. Brian Giles, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jim Edmonds, all well overdue for something more than a stream of one-baggers, each came through with a big knock.

Meanwhile, keep your fingers crossed that Randy Wolf is going to continue to be this good and remain healthy. If the Padres are fortunate on both counts, and the slappers become sluggers, they'll be in the race this season. In 19 innings-plus, he's allowed just 10 hits and seven walks. While early free passes ruined his shot later at a no-hitter, he still has an outstanding mark of fewer baserunners than innings pitched.

The bad: three players have left the San Diego State men's basketball program and will transfer to other institutions. The biggest loss was highly regarded G Quinton Watkins, whose perimeter play was being counted on to return the Aztecs to the NCAA Tournament. DJ Gay had a decent freshman season, but Richie Williams regressed as a junior and Kelvin Davis turned out to be all flash and no substance. Watkins, originally recruited by Illinois, was supposed to be a serious upgrade. The news said he left for family reasons. I read it as he came here, saw that SDSU basketball was nowhere close to where he heard it was and ran home screaming. The NIT loss at Florida was all he needed to see.

The other losses were F Jon Pastorek and F Jer'Vaughn Johnson, both role players. Pastorek has a great deal of talent that was wasted in coach Steve Fisher's system, such as it is. I feel bad for the kid that he made the choice to come here. Bad fit. Johnson was a role player who had no hopes for increased playing time, which he could receive by going to a WCC school.

I don't necessarily believe that San Diego State basketball will go no higher under Fisher. No question the program remains on a plateau after these personnel losses. The spring recruit signing season opens today, so we'll see if he's able to bring in someone for the post or a point guard who can actually command the floor. If not, then the plateau could also have a lid on it.

Powerless Players Dooming Padres Efforts

It's not time to push the panic button if you're a Padres fan, certainly not with a plus-.500 record forged against the Astros, Dodgers and Giants. But a disturbing trend is developing that could keep the Friars from contending in the National League West, a division in which Arizona is already 9-3 and threatening a runaway.

The Padres have more hits than any other team in the National League and trail only the Diamondbacks in batting average, by just .007 (all stats after Sunday's games). Yet, the Friars trail the Snakes in runs scored by 36. To put that into perspective, thats 77 runs to 41. Only the Giants among NL clubs have crossed the plate so few times.

Only the Mets and Royals have hit fewer than the Padres 6 home runs. The Pads have just 13 doubles, while most major league teams have 20 or more.

The problem is almost entirely a lack of power, not poor clutch hitting like the last couple of years. Of the regulars, only Josh Bard (.200), Khalil Greene (.167) and 2007's Mr. Clutch Scott Hairston (.000 on 0-for-11) are struggling at the plate with runners in scoring position. Most of the other key players are hitting over .300 in that situation. It just means that the hits they get are only scoring one run at a time, and the next guy is making an out.

I generally like batting coach Wally Joyner's approach, having them take pitches to the opposite field. Marcus Giles might still be playing here if he'd caught on before last September. If they keep it up, the doubles will come and so will the home runs. It just hasn't happened yet, so it's a source of concern.

By the way, if you think that what's happening to the Padres is a matter of facing difficult pitching staffs, take a look at what's happened to opponents when they play someone else. The Dodgers allowed the Padres 7 runs in three games at Petco Park, then gave up 23 in three contests in Phoenix. The Giants surrendered 8 runs to the Padres in their home opener, then held the Friars to 2 runs and pitched a shutout in the next two contests. They got another well-pitched game the next night against St. Louis, then allowed 8 runs in each of the following two contests.

Other teams aren't finding the Dodgers and Giants pitching staffs too difficult to figure out.

The Padres at some point are going to have to add power to the lineup, which means Hairston (2 triples and 2 homers but just 1 double and 4 RBI) or Paul McAnulty (just 5 singles in 22 at-bats and maybe saved his career with Sunday's game-winning sac fly) have to get going. Same with Kouzmanoff , Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles (just 5 extra base hits between them). Otherwise, Chase Headley will get an earlier-than-expected call-up from AAA Portland, where he's batting .250 with just 3 RBI.

I'm also concerned about the bullpen. However, relief pitchers are generally easier to move around. The organization has starters who go rather deep into games and plenty of depth on the mound. So the relief corps should improve as the season moves along.

Whether such improvement means anything will be determined by whether all those singles with runners on second base eventually turn into doubles or home runs.

Grier Smart As Well As Good Coach, More

USD men's basketball coach Bill Grier might have had a chance for a big paycheck by leaving for the open job at Oregon State, but chose not to. He chose wisely.

There are just some places where you're not going to be able to win consistently, and Oregon State is one of them. Athletics is not the top priority in Corvallis, nor should it be. The men's basketball program, to my recollection, has not fielded much in the way of winners since the days of Lonnie Shelton -- father of SDSU's Tim -- back in the 1970s or 1980s.

Even if you were to bring in some good players, the Beavers reside in the Pac-10, where they would have to do battle with behemoths in UCLA, Arizona and Stanford. Oregon is usually pretty good. Plus, Washington State is on an upswing right now. If the Cougars weren't there, Washington, Arizona State or even Cal would. No way is Oregon State going to compete against them for a couple of years at least.

Instead, Grier will stay in San Diego and compete against Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, a far more manageable proposition. The Zags were over-rated this year. The Gaels were pretty good but not great. Depending on how long he stays, he could really make something out of the Toreros and become a big fish in San Diego's pretty large pond. Imagine Grier and the Aztecs' Steve Fisher both putting their teams into NCAA Tournament. This town would go nuts.

However, despite Grier's current good intentions and wise consideration, I don't think he's here for the long term. There is a Pac-10 school close to his roots that will offer him that big paycheck after another season or two. Oregon. The Ducks have been pretty good in recent years. Fans seem to think they should be great. Every so often, I read or hear someone suggest that Ernie Kent is a lousy coach. I don't know that myself first-hand. Could be true, or not. If enough people are down on Kent, and Oregon-native Grier is performing miracles in Alcala Park, then there will be some temptation.

So Grier is being a good guy in staying ... and being smart ... and maybe most of all being patient.

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The theory that SDSU athletic director Jeff Schemmel might leave for Kansas State, where he had roots, just bit the dust. K-State had one of it's vice-presidents take on the AD responsibilities.

That not only keeps Schemmel here, but takes away my notion that it might be a good time to move Fisher upstairs to succeed him.

I still worry about the next Aztecs basketball season. So much promise, but so little reason to believe that expectations will be fulfilled.

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Can the hysterical debate over Padres closer Trevor Hoffman be over? Please?

Look, the guy blew one game. Yeah, it comes after his blown saves at the end of last year, but he's also held the lead at the end of two wins so far in 2008. No question, his status needs monitoring from manager Bud Black. He's north of 40 years old and his stuff isn't what it was. But it's not time to relegate the future Hall of Famer to mop-up duty.

Chargers Solve Balboa Park Problem and Vice-Versa

The San Diego Chargers want a stadium that's up to current NFL standards, and one of the city's jewels, Balboa Park, is in serious need of major infrastructure overhauls -- and needs a financial impetus to get the work going. It appears to me to be a match made in heaven.

According to a recent article in The San Diego Union-Tribune, a study found that Balboa Park needs 21 different improvement projects at an estimated cost of $238 million. The article suggests that the money is there, but big-dollar donors are holding back to make sure that their contributions will be meaningful.

If the upgrades to the park include a new stadium to the Chargers, San Diego State, the Holiday Bowl and the Poinsettia Bowl, then park improvements will indeed be worthy of our great city. The stadium can bring necessary upgrades to the run-down pool at Morley Field and finally bring San Diego a world-class aquatics facility. The new stadium would be a fine new location for the San Diego Hall of Champions, which would open their nice current digs for something else. There will be improvements to public transportation, such as off-shoots from downtown and Mission Valley trolley lines.

Furthermore, the area the stadium would go, between Morley Field and the Balboa Park Golf Course, bordered by Florida and Pershing drives, is nothing but open land waiting for development.

The big part, obviously, is that the financial package can be worked out to include the many projects needed to upgrade the park's infrastructure.

Naturally, there will be some opposition to this from people with interest in Balboa Park and neighbors in North Park, South Park and Golden Hill. My answers:

-- Plans for upgrading the park have been floated for many years now. The area's general plan was adopted in 1989 and has not been carried out. While city officials sit on their collective duffs, the Chargers can bring the impetus to actually get some work done. They, along with SDSU, will attract people who may not normally come to the park or be aware of all that it has to offer. Which is the point of the existence of the place. Everyone will win if the trolley system is forced to actually run trains somewhere where people like to go, like Balboa Park (and Lindbergh Field, while they're at it).

-- This will bring additional people and their resulting traffic, garbage and some obnoxious behavior to the park, granted. However, the whole idea of having a park, as stated above, is for folks to come and enjoy the place. Balboa Park, along with Mission Bay and proximity to water in general, are the city's prime real estate assets. It would be ignorant to not consider that city officials would seek to maximize their return from their prime possessions. If you live near the park, then you have to accept that changes will be made from time-to-time to attract more visitors. That said, the team should be neighborly and ensure that the stadium has a low profile in order to maintain the beauty of the park and have enough parking/public transportation to avoid inconveniencing area residents. Heck, if I lived there, I'd open my driveway to fans and charge confiscatory rates!

-- The Chargers will be given a real San Diego home and will be able to end the Chula Vista charade, which benefits no one, especially the Bolts and their fans. While the two college bowl games can adjust to wherever a new stadium is located, SDSU cannot. The Aztecs will have to play before 5,000 people, build an on-campus stadium in tight quarters, or fold their football program all together. And remember history, both the Chargers and Aztecs played at Balboa Stadium -- in Balboa Park -- in the early-1960s, so this is not exactly a new idea.

It's a win-win situation as far as I can see. The city of San Diego, thanks to more than a decade of horrible leadership, can do nothing to help either the Chargers or Balboa Park. But the two can help each other, and should quickly.

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Gotta love the Padres' Jake Peavy, maybe the ultimate gamer. He won the season opener almost by himself. Yeah, it's just a single game, but if the Padres can fill the holes in center and right fields, even by the current holders of those positions, then this team really might contend after all. It's a long season, we'll see.

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Re: the Women's Tennis Association buying out the Acura Classic, selling it to interests in Beijing and forcing players to compete there -- another newspaper story -- WTA officials might want to keep a close eye on what's going on with the Olympics. I don't wish any ill will on them for snatching away our only professional tennis tournament but, well, my instinct tells me that they've entered a hornet's nest.

Padres - Outfield, Rotation Rear Still Problematic

Here's how you rate the Padres off-season: when play ended in 2007, the Friars problems were the outfield and the back end of the pitching rotation, and as the games of 2008 are about to begin, the troubles are still the outfield and the last couple starting hurlers.

That's not progress.

GM Kevin Towers and manager Bud Black are confident enough in their outfielders that they sent the organization's top prospect, Chase Headley, to Portland for a month or two of AAA at-bats and fly ball fielding chances and placed CF Jim Edmonds on the 15-day disabled list -- even though he's healthy enough to be back performing in minor league games.

To some extent, I buy into their theory that it would be a setback for Headley if they were to start him in left field now and struggle either at the plate or the field. Remember, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff had some big league experience to use to fight off last year's early slump. Headley does not. Better to recall him as the rescuer in May or June.

But I also get the feeling, since they'd need to send someone else down and risk that unfortunate player to waivers, that Towers and Black are maybe playing it too safe. It seems like they don't know whom to cut. Jody Gerut? Paul McAnulty? Callix Crabbe? They're cut from the same mold, guys trying to hang onto jobs in The Show instead of budding stars capable of leading teams to a championship.

Which brings me to my next point. How many times have we as San Diego State fans been guilty of praising some athlete who manages to stretch his capabilities to accomplish something that should be normal? Isn't it great how that defensive lineman is hanging in there despite being outweighed by 50 pounds? Or how the 6-5 forward is grabbing a couple of rebounds amongst the trees? Well, at the same time they're impressing us, they're getting their butts kicked.

It's nice that Gerut, McAnulty, Crabbe and Scott Hairston are having good springs. But when the season begins on Monday, they're going to be exposed as the marginal players that they are and will get whipped. I'm tempted to throw a past-his-prime Brian Giles into this mix, too. Isn't it great that he's recovered from his injuries and feeling good again? Sure. Let's see how he performs when the lights go on.

Regarding pitching, I'm more than comfortable with Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Duh. Greg Maddux is in such good physical condition, his arm feels so good, and his mechanics are so correct that he might have three effective seasons left in him if he's used properly. Randy Wolf is a real question mark at the four spot. He hasn't tossed 200 innings since 2003 or had an ERA under 4.23 since 2002. In the fifth spot, Justin Germano was lights out for five starts last season. Then hitters figured him out. He's adjusted with an improved change up -- love it! -- but whether he can fool hitters for 25 starts is unlikely. Mark Prior could be a huge asset in the second half of the season, or be worthless. You just don't know.

-- The bullpen should be strong again, although Black will have to be wary of the approaching time that he'll need to swap roles between Trevor Hoffman and Heath Bell.

-- At 1B, I was glad to read that Adrian Gonzalez was as disappointed in his 2007 as I was. Some of his numbers were great, but he can and should be even better. Certainly more consistent hitting with a higher average and fewer strikeouts.

-- 2B perhaps brings potential for the greatest improvement on the team with Tad Iguchi taking over for Marcus Giles. Will be a better fielder and have a good bat in the #2 slot in the batting order.

-- SS Khalil Greene got tons of kudos for his offensive fireworks the last two months of 2007, but hitting that way throughout an entire season would be nice. His approach at the plate can be just awful sometimes. Going into his fifth season as a fulltimer, he could be on the verge of a breakout year. He'll need to cut his 128 strikeouts by 1/4 for that to happen.

-- 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff is into his second season, and sophomore slumps happen. His rookie year was a wonderful thing to watch. Good hitting is all about adjustments, and he made them. He'll need more adjustments this season as pitchers find new holes in his swing. It'll be interesting to see if the youngster can keep pace with his competition.

-- At C, neither Michael Barrett nor Josh Bard offer any excitement, but if the infielders perform up to expectations, then nothing more than solid receivership will be needed here. Any offensive contributions will be a major plus.

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Pitching will keep the Padres around .500. How much over .500 the Friars finish will depend on how the hitters perform. If someone comes through in the OF, if Kouzmanoff avoids the jinx and Greene becomes a full-fledged star, the Padres could challenge again for the National League West title. If not, then well, you know.

The order of things in the division entering the season seems clear, with Arizona and Colorado the cream of the crop, followed by San Diego and Los Angeles, and San Francisco bringing up the rear. What will happen, I think, is the Diamondbacks will win 100 games and run away with it. They go three deep with superstars in the rotation, too, and are solid through their batting order. The Padres and Rockies will battle for 90 wins. The Dodgers, I just don't like their mix. They'll finish over .500 and will overtake the Friars if things don't go well here, but I don't see them as being better than the top dogs. The Giants, uh, yeah. I think I wrote sometime over the winter that the Padres threatened to start a AAA outfield this year, which is coming true. The Giants might have a AA outfield. They will take a lot of low-scoring games into the seventh inning thanks to a nice rotation, but will then lose most of those contests.

USD Beats UConn in NCAA Tournament

Viva, Viva, Viva U-S-D!!!

The only thing to say is this is why I get on Gyno Pomare's case for being inconsistent. Look how good he is. Western Kentucky, whom the Toreros play on Sunday morning, is good. But the Toreros have an excellent chance at the Sweet 16.

Thanks to Coach Fisher But Your Time is Done

Steve Fisher has performed a miracle on Montezuma Mesa in resurrecting San Diego State's once moribund men's basketball program, but this just-ended season demonstrated that his work here is now done. It's time to move on.

I in no way advocate Fisher's firing, especially after an unprecedented third straight 20-win season and post-season appearance, because that would be a terrible injustice to a man who has given us so much. Where he needs to go is upstairs, and there's a chance that the athletic director job will come open. Current AD Jeff Schemmel, who is unpopular here despite doing a pretty good job, is one of the leaders for a similar job at Kansas State of the Big 12. Things have been strangely silent on the AD job in Manhattan, Kan. for several weeks now. They could just be giving Schemmel a courtesy couple of weeks because it would be uncouth for him to announce his departure as the Aztecs prepared for conference tournaments and the NIT for the men. Still, he's got K-State background, so he's a good fit. Couldn't blame him if he goes.

Fisher would be perfect to succeed him. He's a strong administrator, a quiet visionary and works well with his coaching colleagues. He understands San Diego State, the challenges faced by its team and the desperate desire by fans for a high-level team in any sport. His record also shows that he has high standards, which are desperately needed on the Mesa.

The season just ended was a disappointment overall. The Aztecs lost four games they should have won and closed the slate with an embarrassing NIT rout at the hands of Florida. I had no problem with a flu-ridden squad falling in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament to a decent BYU team. The Aztecs, however, looked just horrible against the Gators, who are nothing compared to their last two NCAA championship teams. The were in disarray on offense, ineffective on defense and a non-factor on the boards. SDSU right now is so far from being a good team that it's apparent that Fisher has taken the Aztecs as far as he can.

Other problems exist. Fisher has had to suspend or completely remove from the team far too many players. The losses of Kyle Spain and Jerome Habel ruined this season. I have no doubt those young men deserved their punishment, but Fisher is struggling to bring quality people to San Diego. No one on the current team can shoot worth a darn. The guard play has been inconsistent at best and downright horrible against good teams. He's had trouble recruiting big men, but as a mid-major team, that's no big surprise. Much worse, his staff of assistants has been a revolving door, maybe the biggest reason for the program's inconsistency.

Don't call me a pessimist. I'm not. The future is bright for SDSU men's basketball. The nucleus of this team is young, and some good recruits are coming next season in G Quinton Watkins and French JC transfer F Mehdi Cheriet. Plus, injured freshman F Tim Shelton will return. This 20-win team will get better. How much better is the question, and under Fisher, I now severely doubt it will get much better.

There've been some Aztec fans who've wanted Fisher booted for years now. I'm only begrudgingly edging toward their point of view. My response to those people has always been, if not Fisher, then who? What better coach is going to come to a school like ours with no hoops tradition? The answer was no one.

This time I come with a name. Randy Bennett of Saint Mary's, who led the Gaels to the NCAA Tournament this season as the nearly unprecedented second at-large bid from the West Coast Conference, behind WCC Tournament champion USD and perennial power Gonzaga. It's the Gaels second NCAA appearance in four years, from a program that won something like two games before Bennett took over. And he has San Diego connections from USD.

Bennett is a quality coach, a builder, a winner. He would make a sensible replacement.

Would I be angry if Fisher were to remain as coach? No. Though I see no reason why things next year will be any different than this season. Plus, Fisher might well see this as time to depart on his own. He has to be disappointed, as we all are, on how this season tailed-off after Spain was suspended. It's the second straight season in which the Aztecs faded down the stretch. He might have had enough. If so, he's been a wonderful coach and has laid a very solid foundation for whoever might follow.

Local Schools Put San Diego in College Hoops Spotlight

USD men's basketball? Check!
USD women? Check!

UC San Diego men's basketball? Check!
UCSD women? Check!

Point Loma Nazarene women's basketball? Check!

The Toreros, Tritons and Sea Lions all won their conference tournaments and are now headed to the national basketball tourneys for their levels -- USD in Division 1, UCSD in Division 2, and PLNU in the NAIA.

Still to come? How about the San Diego State men to join the Toreros in the Big Dance? Could happen. Their road through the Mountain West Conference playoffs looks well set-up for them. If they can somehow ride the wave, then the city of San Diego will have six teams in March Madness. That's quite good for a place not known as America's Finest Hoops City.

Watching USD's amazingly convincing victory over Gonzaga to win the WCC title Monday night, I couldn't help but think that the Toreros not only gave the Aztecs extra incentive, but a road map toward success. They beat the Bulldogs and came back to topple Saint Mary's in the semifinal using two things that SDSU coach Steve Fisher has been stressing this year: defense and grabbing what he calls "50-50" balls. The USD defense held the Gaels to 16 second-half points in the semis and the Zags couldn't buy a short jump shot in the last 10 minutes of the final. Hands were up in the air at all times that Gonzaga possessed the ball. The television commentators noted how the Toreros seemed to get every loose ball.

The question now is, can a San Diego State men's team coming off a slightly disappointing regular season win three games in three days? I think so. They opened the season by winning three games in a row in Fresno and got better each game. They can be dangerous when getting into a rhythm.

Can they extend themselves physically and emotionally? Yes, though I've only seen it a couple times this year: the first 10 minutes at Cal, the first half at home vs Wyoming and the second half on the road at New Mexico. Perhaps the final five minutes at home vs BYU. That's four times in 30 games, so maybe the better question than "can they?" is "will they?"

We find out Thursday afternoon with the opening conference tournament game vs Air Force.

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If no one else steps up in defense of CIF-San Diego Section Commissioner Dennis Ackerman, I will. He has one of the most difficult jobs anyone can possibly have in sports. He's like the NBA commissioner but without the huge salary. Add in about 5,000 parents who all think they could run high school sports competition better than he does, and you understand the position he's in.

In the latest controversy, three of the county's best basketball players mysteriously left off All-Star Game rosters after overcoming eligibility questions earlier in the season, Ackerman had the final say over whom was selected.

Ackerman might have been wrong in this instance. The two boys players in question have since been added onto the roster. He's been wrong before. He's been right most of the time, though, and high school sports around here have flourished since he became commissioner.

So correct the mistake, but cut the man some slack.