Here's how you rate the Padres off-season: when play ended in 2007, the Friars problems were the outfield and the back end of the pitching rotation, and as the games of 2008 are about to begin, the troubles are still the outfield and the last couple starting hurlers.
That's not progress.
GM Kevin Towers and manager Bud Black are confident enough in their outfielders that they sent the organization's top prospect, Chase Headley, to Portland for a month or two of AAA at-bats and fly ball fielding chances and placed CF Jim Edmonds on the 15-day disabled list -- even though he's healthy enough to be back performing in minor league games.
To some extent, I buy into their theory that it would be a setback for Headley if they were to start him in left field now and struggle either at the plate or the field. Remember, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff had some big league experience to use to fight off last year's early slump. Headley does not. Better to recall him as the rescuer in May or June.
But I also get the feeling, since they'd need to send someone else down and risk that unfortunate player to waivers, that Towers and Black are maybe playing it too safe. It seems like they don't know whom to cut. Jody Gerut? Paul McAnulty? Callix Crabbe? They're cut from the same mold, guys trying to hang onto jobs in The Show instead of budding stars capable of leading teams to a championship.
Which brings me to my next point. How many times have we as San Diego State fans been guilty of praising some athlete who manages to stretch his capabilities to accomplish something that should be normal? Isn't it great how that defensive lineman is hanging in there despite being outweighed by 50 pounds? Or how the 6-5 forward is grabbing a couple of rebounds amongst the trees? Well, at the same time they're impressing us, they're getting their butts kicked.
It's nice that Gerut, McAnulty, Crabbe and Scott Hairston are having good springs. But when the season begins on Monday, they're going to be exposed as the marginal players that they are and will get whipped. I'm tempted to throw a past-his-prime Brian Giles into this mix, too. Isn't it great that he's recovered from his injuries and feeling good again? Sure. Let's see how he performs when the lights go on.
Regarding pitching, I'm more than comfortable with Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Duh. Greg Maddux is in such good physical condition, his arm feels so good, and his mechanics are so correct that he might have three effective seasons left in him if he's used properly. Randy Wolf is a real question mark at the four spot. He hasn't tossed 200 innings since 2003 or had an ERA under 4.23 since 2002. In the fifth spot, Justin Germano was lights out for five starts last season. Then hitters figured him out. He's adjusted with an improved change up -- love it! -- but whether he can fool hitters for 25 starts is unlikely. Mark Prior could be a huge asset in the second half of the season, or be worthless. You just don't know.
-- The bullpen should be strong again, although Black will have to be wary of the approaching time that he'll need to swap roles between Trevor Hoffman and Heath Bell.
-- At 1B, I was glad to read that Adrian Gonzalez was as disappointed in his 2007 as I was. Some of his numbers were great, but he can and should be even better. Certainly more consistent hitting with a higher average and fewer strikeouts.
-- 2B perhaps brings potential for the greatest improvement on the team with Tad Iguchi taking over for Marcus Giles. Will be a better fielder and have a good bat in the #2 slot in the batting order.
-- SS Khalil Greene got tons of kudos for his offensive fireworks the last two months of 2007, but hitting that way throughout an entire season would be nice. His approach at the plate can be just awful sometimes. Going into his fifth season as a fulltimer, he could be on the verge of a breakout year. He'll need to cut his 128 strikeouts by 1/4 for that to happen.
-- 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff is into his second season, and sophomore slumps happen. His rookie year was a wonderful thing to watch. Good hitting is all about adjustments, and he made them. He'll need more adjustments this season as pitchers find new holes in his swing. It'll be interesting to see if the youngster can keep pace with his competition.
-- At C, neither Michael Barrett nor Josh Bard offer any excitement, but if the infielders perform up to expectations, then nothing more than solid receivership will be needed here. Any offensive contributions will be a major plus.
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Pitching will keep the Padres around .500. How much over .500 the Friars finish will depend on how the hitters perform. If someone comes through in the OF, if Kouzmanoff avoids the jinx and Greene becomes a full-fledged star, the Padres could challenge again for the National League West title. If not, then well, you know.
The order of things in the division entering the season seems clear, with Arizona and Colorado the cream of the crop, followed by San Diego and Los Angeles, and San Francisco bringing up the rear. What will happen, I think, is the Diamondbacks will win 100 games and run away with it. They go three deep with superstars in the rotation, too, and are solid through their batting order. The Padres and Rockies will battle for 90 wins. The Dodgers, I just don't like their mix. They'll finish over .500 and will overtake the Friars if things don't go well here, but I don't see them as being better than the top dogs. The Giants, uh, yeah. I think I wrote sometime over the winter that the Padres threatened to start a AAA outfield this year, which is coming true. The Giants might have a AA outfield. They will take a lot of low-scoring games into the seventh inning thanks to a nice rotation, but will then lose most of those contests.
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