If I had no morals, I would use the "delete" function offered by the blog host and just erase my predictions for the second-half of the baseball season. While my straight-out predictions proved wrong, I was correct in what turned out to be the Padres' downfall, as the starting pitching suffered from the sudden loss of effectiveness of David Wells, occasional struggles by Jake Peavy, and injuries to Chris Young and Greg Maddux.
So, into the off-season we go, and it should be an interesting one. Here are the priorities for the front office during the fall and winter months:
1. Coach the hitters - The Padres did not lose their play-in game in Denver because of Trevor Hoffman or a blown call at home plate. They lost because of a late-inning by late-inning failure to cash in on opportunities as every hitter but Brian Giles swung for the fences. Just putting the ball in play could have pushed a run across late in the game and Hoffman could have extinguished the Rockies while they were, too, shooting for home runs. Instead, the Rox clued in and did what the Padres should have -- took pitches consistently to the opposite field in the final inning of play.
If it looks like I'm picking on one game, I'm actually just using it as an example. The last home game I went to, a similar extra-inning loss to Colorado on the Friday night of the final series at Petco Park, saw similar bat work by the Padres. You can't have a team that only scores via the home run, but that's what the Friars were trying to do in a lot of games.
2. Sign Mike Cameron - Okay, I'm no big fan of his. But Brady Clark showed just how important center field defense is in large parks like Coors Field and Petco. Cameron struck out a horrifying amount of times, like 160, which is Bobby Bonds territory. But he stabilizes the outfield defense and injects much-needed speed into the lineup. Sign him and bat him seventh.
The trouble is that there is one guy who was smiling as he watched Clark struggle Monday night. That's Cameron's agent. Guarantee they're not coming off their asking price too quickly now when they negotiate with the Padres.
3. Fill the holes - Assuming that Cameron re-signs, then Kevin Towers has to fill left field, second base, and two starting pitching spots. Scott Hairston provided late lightning on four occasions this season, but he's not a consistent hitter and not a good enough defender to compete for a fulltime job, which is why Arizona was willing to let him go. He's a 2007 version of Jim Leyritz, the 1998 wonder who fell apart the next season. Keep Hairston as what he is, a good substitute. Maybe good enough to start in left if there's reason to think Milton Bradley will be ready to play by May.
Solutions are more likely to come from trades than the free agent market. The only free agents who fit Padres needs and are, IMHO, worth signing, are infielder Mark Loretta, pitcher Matt Clement and LF Adam Dunn. All have good and bad points. Loretta hit .287 and had 460 at bats for the Astros while only striking out 41 times, but had no power at all and will turn 37 next season. Clement has been a solid starting pitcher since leaving San Diego, but he's well into his 30s and did not pitch for the Red Sox this year because of an injury that limited him to just 12 appeances in 2006. Dunn had perhaps his best season overall with a his highest batting average (.264) since 2004, 40 home runs for the third year in a row and his fewest strikeouts over a full season in his career -- although that was still 165 and the Reds hold a team option for him.
So Towers' options are limited in free agency. Trades are another matter. As soon as you'd think other general managers would be leery of dealing with the man, someone shows up believing he can snooker him. Other teams, wary of how the relief-shy Mets collapsed, will be after bullpen talent, and the Padres have some short-inning arms to spare.
4. Evaluate the young pitchers - It's pitch or cut bait with young pitchers Tim Stauffer, Justin Germano, Clay Hensley and Mike Thompson. The brass has to decide once and for all whether they will make it as fulltime major league starters.
5. Closer reality - Trevor Hoffman is NOT DONE. However, it is becoming clear that Heath Bell, who many teammates and observers believe should be the team MVP, is the best pitcher in the bullpen. Hoffman has made adjustments before and will during this offseason, too. He will come out next spring and be an effective closer for a while. But as Hoffman pitches his first season north of 40 years old in 2008, he's going to need Bell to save some games for him, not the other way around. The sooner Bud Black is willing to be flexible in how he sets up his bullpen -- game by game or week by week or just going with the hot hand -- the better chance the Padres will have at winning ball games.
Overall, it was a pretty interesting and entertaining season. The Padres finished with a better record and were closer to the playoffs than a lot of people expected. They had their share of bad breaks and injuries but were able to plug on via spit and glue. They came up with a third baseman of the future in Kevin Kouzmanoff. They won an awful lot of games in the late innings. They played in October when most other major league teams did not. There are a lot of positives. But they can also stand improvement.
---
NOTES: Sorry, I haven't posted in a while. Kind of the way it is ... I'd have written by now about the Chargers 1-3 start if I could figure it out. There seems to be something different every week, which leads me to think that there's some general weakness all over, from the general manager to the coaches to Philip Rivers to the offensive line, to the defensive line not tying up lineman, the linebackers being out of position and the secondary being just plain awful ... It won't show up in the stats, but the plays by Rivers that killed the Bolts chances against Kansas City were consecutive goal line situations late in the game in which Vincent Jackson was open in the back of the end zone and LaDainian Tomlinson was open in the flat and he ended up not throwing to either of them. The next play, Tomlinson was again open in the flat, and again Rivers couldn't even let the pass loose ... San Diego State might have the worst defense in the history of the school, and they had some pretty bad defenses in the early 90s. The secondary is patchwork, the linebackers are young and injured and the defensive line is not strong enough to stop a Pop Warner offense ... Chuck Long is building through young players, which takes time, but Aztecs fans have heard that song-and-dance repeatedly over the years, with payoffs only coming once per decade.
No comments:
Post a Comment