This fall has the makings of what could be a highly successful season of local football, maybe more so than the late-1970's when San Diego State ruled the roost and the Chargers were beginning to come on strong behind Dan Fouts.
The Aztecs appear to have better personnel entering this season under coach Chuck Long than they did in a 3-9 2006. The offensive is, for the most part, healthy. QB Kevin O'Connell is a senior. The running back corps is deep, and the wide receivers could become a threat for the first time since JR Tolver and Kassim Osgood were running patterns for the red and black. The tight end position has a chance to be productive for the first time in more than a decade.
The defense has switched to a 3-4 set, a long overdue move based on recruiting realities -- the difficulty a non-BCS school has at attracting talented defensive linemen and SDSU's growing reputation as a linebacker factory. The Aztecs have usually attracted far more defensive ends than tackles, too.
The keys to the season: keeping the offensive line starters healthy and the secondary able to at least put up a fight to opposing wideouts. The line may never be able to power a strong running game, but they should be able to give O'Connell that extra split-second he's been needing to find receivers. The secondary is a total unknown, but reports claim they're pretty athletic.
If those points above are met successfully, the Aztecs could go somewhere around 7-5 and qualify for a bowl game -- a welcome holiday gift for suffering fans. If things don't work out so well, then a 4-8 semi-disaster is likely.
My bet is the offensive line will hold together at a reasonable level but the secondary will probably struggle early, particularly since the defense probably won't generate much of a pass rush against good teams. That means something more middlin', meaning the Aztecs could be 6-5 and needing to beat a Top 25 TCU squad when they come to town for the regular season finale on Nov. 24.
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What else is there to say about the Chargers other than they have the most talent in the NFL, and might by far. There are some issues noted in previous posts, such as two new starting inside linebackers and a pair of safeties who are suspect. They might end up in some shootouts this year against quality opponents.
On offense, the wide receivers don't look improved as a group, but Vincent Jackson might be ready to blossom into stardom in his first season as a starter. We'll have to see. And, remember, Philip Rivers had a couple poor games last year. I don't see him having a sophomore jinx in 2007, but the possibility is there nonetheless. The offensive line depth is thin behind some quality starters.
Maybe the biggest problem the Chargers have is Denver being vastly improved, at least on paper. The Broncos are good enough to split with the Bolts and then who knows what they do with the rest of their schedule.
All things being equal, it's probably too much to expect another 14-2 against a tougher schedule, and facing NFL competition. I'm guessing, after going through the Chargers slate, that they'll go 12-4 or 11-5. If they get hit with injuries in the offensive line, the receiver corps beyond what they already face with Eric Parker, it could get worse. Otherwise, this is a high quality team that will almost certainly go to the playoffs. Postseason is the real season as far as Chargers fans are concerned.
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There's a lot of talk in town of USD running the table behind superstar QB Josh Johnson, star RB JT Rogan and a solid defense. But the Toreros do have two games against teams at a higher level: Northern Colorado at home and UC Davis to end the season on the road. Davis is the squad that rather comfortably dealt the Toreros their only loss last season. So one or two Ls this season could happen, but no one else should give them a problem.
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