As noted in the All-Star Game post, I think the Padres have to win five more games in the second half of the season than they did in the first half. The Dodgers appear to be the opponent most capable of going on a run, and the Padres are going to have to find a way to match them. Arizona remains in the hunt, and Colorado might be playing the best ball in the division right now.
Funny, but so far the upside for the 2007 Padres has been pitching, and that's what I'm worried about. The downside has been hitting, and I'm actually a bit optimistic that they'll improve at the plate.
On pitching, Greg Maddux has simply not been very good lately, with batters reaching him on their second and especially third turns around the order. Sure, he's been a good pickup overall, but both he and David Wells have been taxing the bullpen. And Justin Germano has tailed off of late. While Wells has put together a number of quality starts lately, with his age you have to wonder how long that will last. So you have anywhere from 2/5 to 3/5 of your starting rotation being questionable, and Portland has no one else to send to the bigs. Plus, the bullpen has been overused, by necessity of course.
On hitting, my causes for optimism are the additions of Milton Bradley and Michael Barrett, and the move of Brian Giles to leadoff. I wouldn't expect big power numbers from any of these guys, but so often where the Friars fall short is in coming up with the clean base knock with two outs and runners on. With their pitching, they don't need big boppers to bring home nine runs per game. But they have to capitalize with singles and doubles when the opportunities are there. And Giles, with his power loss but good eye at the plate, is a guy who should be able to create more opportunities than his strikeout-prone little bro'.
The additions also mean that you can have guys like Jose Cruz Jr. and Josh Bard coming off the bench, where they're stronger, instead of playing every day.
Prediction: I think the Dodgers will go on a run, but will carry the Padres with them and both will get into the playoffs.
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Just a hunch, but I bet that the reason Wells got such a long suspension for his run-in with the umpire last weekend was because of the way the Padres juggled Chris Young's suspension so that he didn't miss a start. The league office probably didn't so much want to nail Wells to the wall as to make sure he did, in fact, miss a turn in the rotation.
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