Live by the pitch, die by the pitch. This turn on a phrase is all about the Padres in 2011 when the team will be hard-pressed to match last year's success on the mound or the win column.
Moves by the Padres in the past week or so reveal some desperation in the front office regarding a pitching staff that doesn't come close to what they had last season. The woes are many: Mat Latos is starting the season on the disabled list, Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley didn't hit any kind of stride during spring training and no one knows how long Aaron Harang is going to last. When the Friars need a fifth starter, do they pull Corey Luebke out of the bullpen or recall Wade LeBlanc from AAA? The only rock appears to be Tim Stauffer, who missed most of last season after an appendectomy.
Even the mighty bullpen is not immune from questions behind GAB. Samuel Deduno and Pat Neshek were off the radar when spring training started. Can these guys, along with Ernesto Frieri, stop the bleeding in the fourth and fifth innings of bad starts to get the ball to GAB with a chance to win? The formula worked last year but appears doubtful in 2011.
The Padres are no 100-loss team, but nothing would be surprising this year. But they could struggle to reach 75 wins. There is just no way that their pitching staff can match up with the Giants or Dodgers, whose rotations would be the best in the league in a normal year (see the Phillies, this is no ordinary year).
The Padres will be much improved defensively everywhere but first base, and the bench will be deeper except at catcher. But at the plate, there is no way they'll be significantly better than last year. It is true the lineup will have more difficult outs top to bottom, but with Adrian Gonzalez gone, there will be less power than in 2010. That's kind of like the weak skinny kid went on a diet instead of hitting the weight room. You can't score in this division by stringing a bunch of singles together, because you simply won't be stringing a bunch of singles together. You need a big bop in there someplace, and to say you'll get consistent power from Brad Hawpe, Chase Headley or Ryan Ludwick is wishful thinking.
Last March, I predicted the Padres would be in the NL West race well into September and they were. This March, the prediction is that they'll remain in the race -- until June. This is a team held together by spit and glue, and I the front office knows it.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Can SDSU Maintain the Excitement?
We're about to find out what sort of a bridge builder San Diego State athletic director Jim Sterk is. Can he take the warm feelings San Diegans have for his hoops team and carry them across four and a half months to football season?
That's a big trick. I think the success of the football program played a role in how quickly the community came together for basketball. A sellout for Occidental on New Year's Eve was weird, but it come just eight days after the Aztecs 35-14 defeat of Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. The good feelings translated because the seasons overlapped. That doesn't work when hoops ends. There is a long time span before people start thinking football again and whether SDSU is even in the equation is questionable.
So what does Sterk do? An occasional print advertisement in the newspaper won't cut it. I'm sure he can trot the basketball players out once or twice before Padres games. He'll have an advantage in case the NFL and its players continue their labor strife -- but I would not count on it. There will be some renewal of interest in June if Kawhi Leonard goes to the NBA draft, but the after-taste will be that we lost him.
You can't live off the basketball afterglow forever. The marketing effort is going to need to convert fan interest to football, which means Ronnie Hillman and Ryan Lindley and Rocky Long and a blitzing, gambling defense. It means home games with Boise State and TCU and a renewal of the rivalry with Fresno State. I'm no marketing expert, but those are some building blocks.
---
Leonard's future plans amount to a win-win situation for the SDSU basketball team. Everyone is steeling themselves against losing the rebounding dynamo to the NBA and it could happen, but the fact is the program will benefit from whichever decision he makes.
The general consensus is that he will enter his name for draft eligibility and go through the evaluation process. Once that is completed, he and head coach Steve Fisher will sit down for a heart-to-heart, and Leonard will then complete the decision-making with his mother. That all makes perfect sense.
1. Leonard stays - A program that is now guard-heavy clearly is better with his inside play, incentive to prove himself in the NCAA Tournament and possible season-long media attention. He will have more time to work on his ball-handling and jumper, and avoid possible labor issues in the NBA. With Leonard in the fold, SDSU will spend the season in the Top 25 again and return to the Big Dance.
2. Leonard leaves - For all the good players who have come through the program under Fisher, none have made it in the NBA. Leonard's departure would be because he is a certain first-round draft choice, breaking a major barrier that opposing coaches are certainly using against SDSU in the recruiting wars. There will be a lot of publicity about him leading up to June, and even his announcement in April that he's putting his name in could entice a freshman big man to come to State. Finally, if Leonard stays, it will be because he needs to improve on his perimeter game, and Fisher will need him to perform in the paint. If he is not there, tension will be avoided.
That's a big trick. I think the success of the football program played a role in how quickly the community came together for basketball. A sellout for Occidental on New Year's Eve was weird, but it come just eight days after the Aztecs 35-14 defeat of Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. The good feelings translated because the seasons overlapped. That doesn't work when hoops ends. There is a long time span before people start thinking football again and whether SDSU is even in the equation is questionable.
So what does Sterk do? An occasional print advertisement in the newspaper won't cut it. I'm sure he can trot the basketball players out once or twice before Padres games. He'll have an advantage in case the NFL and its players continue their labor strife -- but I would not count on it. There will be some renewal of interest in June if Kawhi Leonard goes to the NBA draft, but the after-taste will be that we lost him.
You can't live off the basketball afterglow forever. The marketing effort is going to need to convert fan interest to football, which means Ronnie Hillman and Ryan Lindley and Rocky Long and a blitzing, gambling defense. It means home games with Boise State and TCU and a renewal of the rivalry with Fresno State. I'm no marketing expert, but those are some building blocks.
---
Leonard's future plans amount to a win-win situation for the SDSU basketball team. Everyone is steeling themselves against losing the rebounding dynamo to the NBA and it could happen, but the fact is the program will benefit from whichever decision he makes.
The general consensus is that he will enter his name for draft eligibility and go through the evaluation process. Once that is completed, he and head coach Steve Fisher will sit down for a heart-to-heart, and Leonard will then complete the decision-making with his mother. That all makes perfect sense.
1. Leonard stays - A program that is now guard-heavy clearly is better with his inside play, incentive to prove himself in the NCAA Tournament and possible season-long media attention. He will have more time to work on his ball-handling and jumper, and avoid possible labor issues in the NBA. With Leonard in the fold, SDSU will spend the season in the Top 25 again and return to the Big Dance.
2. Leonard leaves - For all the good players who have come through the program under Fisher, none have made it in the NBA. Leonard's departure would be because he is a certain first-round draft choice, breaking a major barrier that opposing coaches are certainly using against SDSU in the recruiting wars. There will be a lot of publicity about him leading up to June, and even his announcement in April that he's putting his name in could entice a freshman big man to come to State. Finally, if Leonard stays, it will be because he needs to improve on his perimeter game, and Fisher will need him to perform in the paint. If he is not there, tension will be avoided.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Aztecs Maxed Out in Brilliant Season
In the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, you run into three kinds of teams:
1. The very good teams that are too talented to lose in the first two rounds,
2. The Cinderella wannabees who spring an upset over a big conference stiff in one game and beat a smaller league school they match up well with in other (think Richmond),
3. Those who suddenly get hot, possibly riding a great player (see UConn and Walker, Kemba).
San Diego State was in the first category and unfortunately had to play a school in the third and, as I posted Thursday, you can't predict when that will happen.
Simply said, it was apparent during the tournament that SDSU came in playing at a high level, but was unable to push the envelope any farther. You have to do that in order to go go any deeper than they did. There is no shame in that, it happened to Duke a couple of hours later on the same floor. But they struggled for a half-plus against Northern Colorado and couldn't put away injury-riddled Temple until the end of the second overtime.
San Diego State's acclaimed star, Kawhi Leonard, was unable to put the Aztecs on his back and carry them like Walker did for the Huskies or Derrick Williams has for Arizona. He disappeared against the Owls until the end and got himself in a heap of trouble vs the Huskies. In true Leonard form, however, he made a number of big plays down the stretch before UConn salted away the game.
Basketball seasons last a long time for college kids, two months longer than football, and most teams have ups and downs over the course of a campaign. SDSU had only ups. The only hint of a down was that weird tournament in Las Vegas when they had to play in a converted horse barn, but even then they escaped with a couple of victories. Their season was an amazing accomplishment, and the way this team brought the community together was tremendous. We'll all remember this brilliant season that could launch the basketball program to even greater heights.
I'll leave you with two thoughts, one to ponder and one to give you chills:
-- Maybe the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship win over BYU was a pyrrhic victory. Imagine a very close loss to the Cougars, who get the No. 2 seed in the West while the Aztecs take the No. 3 seed in the Southwest Regional. Do you think SDSU is still standing today? I don't see Florida as a buzzsaw like UConn.
-- One day, maybe in a couple of years, DJ Gay and Billy White are going to return to Viejas Arena to take in a game. Can you imagine the reception when the PA announcer calls out "D-J-Gay!" with all the fans joining in or Billllllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee White!" We're going to miss that sort of excitement as much as anything. I already miss them, along with Malcolm Thomas, and it's only one night later.
1. The very good teams that are too talented to lose in the first two rounds,
2. The Cinderella wannabees who spring an upset over a big conference stiff in one game and beat a smaller league school they match up well with in other (think Richmond),
3. Those who suddenly get hot, possibly riding a great player (see UConn and Walker, Kemba).
San Diego State was in the first category and unfortunately had to play a school in the third and, as I posted Thursday, you can't predict when that will happen.
Simply said, it was apparent during the tournament that SDSU came in playing at a high level, but was unable to push the envelope any farther. You have to do that in order to go go any deeper than they did. There is no shame in that, it happened to Duke a couple of hours later on the same floor. But they struggled for a half-plus against Northern Colorado and couldn't put away injury-riddled Temple until the end of the second overtime.
San Diego State's acclaimed star, Kawhi Leonard, was unable to put the Aztecs on his back and carry them like Walker did for the Huskies or Derrick Williams has for Arizona. He disappeared against the Owls until the end and got himself in a heap of trouble vs the Huskies. In true Leonard form, however, he made a number of big plays down the stretch before UConn salted away the game.
Basketball seasons last a long time for college kids, two months longer than football, and most teams have ups and downs over the course of a campaign. SDSU had only ups. The only hint of a down was that weird tournament in Las Vegas when they had to play in a converted horse barn, but even then they escaped with a couple of victories. Their season was an amazing accomplishment, and the way this team brought the community together was tremendous. We'll all remember this brilliant season that could launch the basketball program to even greater heights.
I'll leave you with two thoughts, one to ponder and one to give you chills:
-- Maybe the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship win over BYU was a pyrrhic victory. Imagine a very close loss to the Cougars, who get the No. 2 seed in the West while the Aztecs take the No. 3 seed in the Southwest Regional. Do you think SDSU is still standing today? I don't see Florida as a buzzsaw like UConn.
-- One day, maybe in a couple of years, DJ Gay and Billy White are going to return to Viejas Arena to take in a game. Can you imagine the reception when the PA announcer calls out "D-J-Gay!" with all the fans joining in or Billllllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee White!" We're going to miss that sort of excitement as much as anything. I already miss them, along with Malcolm Thomas, and it's only one night later.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Bittersweet 16 for SDSU
You can't choose your exit when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. It just happens that at some point, you run into a better team or a buzzsaw. In the Sweet 16 in Anaheim, San Diego State ran into a little bit of both in a UConn squad that put together two runs to end the Aztecs' brilliant season 74-67. SDSU maybe deserved a better fate, a longer stay, but they weren't allowed to pick when they'd meet up such an opponent.
I will say that losing to a hot UConn team was far better than what a setback to Temple would have been like. Not only would that have been a round earlier, but also a throw-away. In this contest, UConn made the plays that win games and have a marvelous talent in G Kemba Walker. That said, Walker is no man. I won't say that foul by Jamaal Franklin sparked UConn's final run, but Walker took a flop when they collided heading into a timeout. Doing it in a game, like trying to take a charge, is one thing. Doing it while walking to your bench is something else. For the referee to call it was pathetic. Franklin should have known better than to ever give an official a chance to make a call. Even with that, the game was close at the end and the Huskies made the winning plays -- the Aztecs did not.
So it's over, and I will terribly miss DJ Gay. I suspect the Aztecs will be physically more talented at the point next season with LaBradford Franklin and Xavier Thames, but the void of experience, leadership and killer instinct will be hard to fill. I will miss Malcolm Thomas' shot-blocking and sunny personality but not his hook shot. I will miss Billy White's ability to make us all stand up and shout "Wow!" and Viejas Arena announcer Brian Main's call of his name, but not his disappearing act.
We will probably miss Kawhi Leonard's strength but his offensive game really could stand another year of honing in college. I hope to see Brian Carlwell for one more season, but leaving anything in the hands of the NCAA is dangerous, so I'll expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised if his return for an extra season is approved.
The future, however, is bright. The backcourt of Franklin, Thames, Chase Tapley and James Rahon will be the best in the Mountain West Conference, and it will be fun to see what Jamaal Franklin can do when given more playing time. Maybe Leonard and/or Carlwell are back to help him out. There are front-court recruits coming in to help who are well-regarded.
This is by no means a one-and-done year for great basketball at SDSU. More are ahead. First, let's step back and take a deep breath and reflect on just how fun this one was. It wasn't magical, there was nothing mystical about it at all. It was just good, really, really good.
I will say that losing to a hot UConn team was far better than what a setback to Temple would have been like. Not only would that have been a round earlier, but also a throw-away. In this contest, UConn made the plays that win games and have a marvelous talent in G Kemba Walker. That said, Walker is no man. I won't say that foul by Jamaal Franklin sparked UConn's final run, but Walker took a flop when they collided heading into a timeout. Doing it in a game, like trying to take a charge, is one thing. Doing it while walking to your bench is something else. For the referee to call it was pathetic. Franklin should have known better than to ever give an official a chance to make a call. Even with that, the game was close at the end and the Huskies made the winning plays -- the Aztecs did not.
So it's over, and I will terribly miss DJ Gay. I suspect the Aztecs will be physically more talented at the point next season with LaBradford Franklin and Xavier Thames, but the void of experience, leadership and killer instinct will be hard to fill. I will miss Malcolm Thomas' shot-blocking and sunny personality but not his hook shot. I will miss Billy White's ability to make us all stand up and shout "Wow!" and Viejas Arena announcer Brian Main's call of his name, but not his disappearing act.
We will probably miss Kawhi Leonard's strength but his offensive game really could stand another year of honing in college. I hope to see Brian Carlwell for one more season, but leaving anything in the hands of the NCAA is dangerous, so I'll expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised if his return for an extra season is approved.
The future, however, is bright. The backcourt of Franklin, Thames, Chase Tapley and James Rahon will be the best in the Mountain West Conference, and it will be fun to see what Jamaal Franklin can do when given more playing time. Maybe Leonard and/or Carlwell are back to help him out. There are front-court recruits coming in to help who are well-regarded.
This is by no means a one-and-done year for great basketball at SDSU. More are ahead. First, let's step back and take a deep breath and reflect on just how fun this one was. It wasn't magical, there was nothing mystical about it at all. It was just good, really, really good.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Aztecs Scenarios Add Up to Rout
My only prediction for the biggest men's basketball game in San Diego State's history in the Sweet 16 Thursday night vs UConn is that it will be a rout.
Here are the scenarios:
-- SDSU wins big. More likely than the distasteful alternative. If the Aztecs get up on UConn in the second half, the young Huskies, who might start three freshmen, could fold quickly. The Aztecs will have to hit their shots, especially all those 3- and 5-footers they clanged in Tucson, but if they do it will combine with their strong rebounding and ferocious defense to make things very tough on their opponents. G Kemba Walker will have to face defense by DJ Gay, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard, putting a lot of pressure on the other Huskies to score. I don't think they'll have seen a defense that can throw that many tough guys on him. I don't think the SDSU home court advantage will mean much to them, but it won't help, either. It will work better in the alternative, picking the Aztecs up if the Huskies get on a run.
-- SDSU loses big. Less likely, and clearly the scenario we don't want to come true. Those shots that weren't going in the basket last weekend aren't falling in this game, either, and maybe even the three-pointers go away. The Aztecs can't afford one of those 0-for-18 shooting nights from behind the arc. Talk about the experience State has from guarding Jimmer three times, you have to admit the guy burned them in two. You hear a lot of how BYU beat SDSU twice by 13 points, but those games were close until the last few minutes. When time gets short and it becomes apparent that the dream is over, the air will escape from SDSU's balloon like a jet -- it's just human nature. It happened in both regular season losses. A respectable score could get out of hand in garbage time.
All of which means it will come down to a final shot, or triple-overtime.
The two things I don't want to see:
1. A repeat of what nearly happened against Temple, when the Aztecs almost threw the game away against a tired, over-matched opponent. SDSU should have won that game comfortably. Getting beat is one thing, throwing it away would end a wonderful season on a sour note.
2. Too many of those Round of 32 games came down to officiating in the final seconds, whether the calls were correct or not. It'd be shame if SDSU was sent home based on what some guy in a striped shirt decided. It would also be too bad if the Aztecs win on a controversial call, because you know all the East Coast honks will say SDSU didn't really deserve to win.
Now that the pressure of making the Sweet 16 is off, let's hope the Aztecs come in fast and loose. If they hit some shots early, this could be a great night.
Here are the scenarios:
-- SDSU wins big. More likely than the distasteful alternative. If the Aztecs get up on UConn in the second half, the young Huskies, who might start three freshmen, could fold quickly. The Aztecs will have to hit their shots, especially all those 3- and 5-footers they clanged in Tucson, but if they do it will combine with their strong rebounding and ferocious defense to make things very tough on their opponents. G Kemba Walker will have to face defense by DJ Gay, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard, putting a lot of pressure on the other Huskies to score. I don't think they'll have seen a defense that can throw that many tough guys on him. I don't think the SDSU home court advantage will mean much to them, but it won't help, either. It will work better in the alternative, picking the Aztecs up if the Huskies get on a run.
-- SDSU loses big. Less likely, and clearly the scenario we don't want to come true. Those shots that weren't going in the basket last weekend aren't falling in this game, either, and maybe even the three-pointers go away. The Aztecs can't afford one of those 0-for-18 shooting nights from behind the arc. Talk about the experience State has from guarding Jimmer three times, you have to admit the guy burned them in two. You hear a lot of how BYU beat SDSU twice by 13 points, but those games were close until the last few minutes. When time gets short and it becomes apparent that the dream is over, the air will escape from SDSU's balloon like a jet -- it's just human nature. It happened in both regular season losses. A respectable score could get out of hand in garbage time.
All of which means it will come down to a final shot, or triple-overtime.
The two things I don't want to see:
1. A repeat of what nearly happened against Temple, when the Aztecs almost threw the game away against a tired, over-matched opponent. SDSU should have won that game comfortably. Getting beat is one thing, throwing it away would end a wonderful season on a sour note.
2. Too many of those Round of 32 games came down to officiating in the final seconds, whether the calls were correct or not. It'd be shame if SDSU was sent home based on what some guy in a striped shirt decided. It would also be too bad if the Aztecs win on a controversial call, because you know all the East Coast honks will say SDSU didn't really deserve to win.
Now that the pressure of making the Sweet 16 is off, let's hope the Aztecs come in fast and loose. If they hit some shots early, this could be a great night.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Nervous Aztecs Get Where They Needed
When I was in high school, the best team one year was Kentucky, led by future NBA star Rick Roby and Jack "Goose" Givens, who returned from an injury to lead the Wildcats to the national championship game. All season long, it was all about Kentucky and how much better they were than anyone else. Indeed, they won that final handily over Duke, but there was little celebration afterward. The Wildcats sighed with relief because they had only done what everyone expected them to do.
Fast-forward to Saturday, and a very nervous San Diego State basketball team managed to do what everyone expected them to do, which was make the Sweet 16. Those were the expectations -- win the first two games of the NCAA Tournament and take your chances from there. Everything from here on out is gravy. But you have to get there first, and practically from the opening tip Thursday the Aztecs played with the kind of jitters that cause you to miss shots from close-in. Both games, they shot well from the three-point line, but were horrible in the paint. Weird, and I think it was nerves.
From now on, it's all joy, I hope. The freedom should allow them to play freer and easier and shoot better. They should have beaten Northern Colorado by 30 and Temple by 15 or more, but a lot of missed inside shots and some strange turnovers made the game vs. the Owls close. Yeah, but the bottom line is they made it to Anaheim. The pressure is off now.
Think having three senior starters is important now? Oh, yeah. They've been there, done that. We can harp on it all season long, and this is when the payoff comes...DJ Gay's defense against larger Owl G Juan Fernandez was spectacular...The thing about Kawhi Leonard is that he's there to produce at winning time, from high school to last year's MWC final against UNLV to overtime against Temple...Next up is UConn and G Kemba Walker. All we need is a quicker Jimmer who plays defense and has a better supporting cast.
Fast-forward to Saturday, and a very nervous San Diego State basketball team managed to do what everyone expected them to do, which was make the Sweet 16. Those were the expectations -- win the first two games of the NCAA Tournament and take your chances from there. Everything from here on out is gravy. But you have to get there first, and practically from the opening tip Thursday the Aztecs played with the kind of jitters that cause you to miss shots from close-in. Both games, they shot well from the three-point line, but were horrible in the paint. Weird, and I think it was nerves.
From now on, it's all joy, I hope. The freedom should allow them to play freer and easier and shoot better. They should have beaten Northern Colorado by 30 and Temple by 15 or more, but a lot of missed inside shots and some strange turnovers made the game vs. the Owls close. Yeah, but the bottom line is they made it to Anaheim. The pressure is off now.
Think having three senior starters is important now? Oh, yeah. They've been there, done that. We can harp on it all season long, and this is when the payoff comes...DJ Gay's defense against larger Owl G Juan Fernandez was spectacular...The thing about Kawhi Leonard is that he's there to produce at winning time, from high school to last year's MWC final against UNLV to overtime against Temple...Next up is UConn and G Kemba Walker. All we need is a quicker Jimmer who plays defense and has a better supporting cast.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Typical Aztec Win in Tourney Opener
For those unfamiliar with San Diego State basketball, that 68-50 win over Northern Colorado in the NCAA Tournament Thursday was vintage for this season. Close and kind of ugly offensively for a half, a rout in the second half while the opponent struggles to reach 50.
The formula is not pretty, but it has been effective for many of SDSU's 33 wins so far this season. While the first half shooting performance had many fans gnashing their teeth -- I was yelling some pretty ugly things at my television -- we've seen it before and the Aztecs have mostly survived.
The question is whether they thrive the next time out. Here's a look at the history this season of what happened the next game out after a sub-par shooting performance.
On Dec. 13, the Aztecs survived an 0-for-18 performance from behind the three-point arc, and 34 percent overall shooting game to down Cal Poly 51-45. The next game, they scorched the nets to the tune of 8-for-13 on threes in the first half in a 90-64 rout of UC Santa Barbara.
On Dec. 22, they held off IUPUI for the second time and made just 3-of-20 threes. The next game out they scored 93 vs Occidental on New Year's Eve.
It goes on. They opened the Mountain West Conference season clanging threes but shooting well overall at TCU and did a bit better at Utah. They followed the ugly boxing match vs UNLV by making most of their bombs at New Mexico, including seven by DJ Gay.
Past performance does not guarantee future success, but the trend looks good. I also feel much better about Saturday's match-up with Temple than I did before seeing them hang on against Penn State. We all knew that one bad shooting game at the wrong time could abort a deep tournament run. Let's just hope they got that one out of their system.
The formula is not pretty, but it has been effective for many of SDSU's 33 wins so far this season. While the first half shooting performance had many fans gnashing their teeth -- I was yelling some pretty ugly things at my television -- we've seen it before and the Aztecs have mostly survived.
The question is whether they thrive the next time out. Here's a look at the history this season of what happened the next game out after a sub-par shooting performance.
On Dec. 13, the Aztecs survived an 0-for-18 performance from behind the three-point arc, and 34 percent overall shooting game to down Cal Poly 51-45. The next game, they scorched the nets to the tune of 8-for-13 on threes in the first half in a 90-64 rout of UC Santa Barbara.
On Dec. 22, they held off IUPUI for the second time and made just 3-of-20 threes. The next game out they scored 93 vs Occidental on New Year's Eve.
It goes on. They opened the Mountain West Conference season clanging threes but shooting well overall at TCU and did a bit better at Utah. They followed the ugly boxing match vs UNLV by making most of their bombs at New Mexico, including seven by DJ Gay.
Past performance does not guarantee future success, but the trend looks good. I also feel much better about Saturday's match-up with Temple than I did before seeing them hang on against Penn State. We all knew that one bad shooting game at the wrong time could abort a deep tournament run. Let's just hope they got that one out of their system.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Conference Games Have Aztecs Prepared
New Mexico defeated UTEP by 12 points Tuesday night in the first round of the NIT, and that is important. That the Lobos did so without injured G Dairese Gary makes the victory even more impressive.
If you have any doubt about where San Diego State and the Mountain West Conference stand up nationally in college basketball, that score tells you a lot. The Aztecs swept the Lobos this year, easily. UNM finished fifth in the MWC while the Miners were just a game out of first in Conference USA -- and went to the final game of the C-USA Tournament. They're pretty good, and the Lobos smoked them.
Here's what the result tells me. San Diego State is ready to compete with anyone, whether it be Northern Colorado on Thursday, or some combination in the future of Temple, Penn State, Cincinnati, UConn or Duke. The Aztecs stack up. That doesn't mean they will win, that's why they call it "March Madness."
While not overlooking the Bears on Thursday, I think the Aztecs are more likely to curly fry them than lose -- probably a typical SDSU close game at halftime with a second-half blowout led by defense. The game that scares me is Saturday, against the Temple/Penn State winner. That contest will be the difference between whether this team has a season considered to be successful or not. Right or wrong, San Diegans have the Sweet 16 as the destination for this club and anything less will be a disappointment. We could, and probably will, get a bit more, but anything beyond the Sweet 16 will be gravy.
So how does SDSU get to the Final Four? The key is for the Aztecs to not have an off-game from the perimeter, something you probably already know. They can shoot, but are prone to the occasional bad game. That can't happen or they will make an early exit. Otherwise, things could break their way. Both Temple and Penn State are guard oriented, and SDSU guards the three-point line well and can dominate in the paint. I'm less sold on UConn having nothing left after their Big East tourney run, but it could happen, if not this week, then by next. They could find themselves against Cincinnati next week just as easily as against the Huskies. In the regional final, they could face talented but inconsistent Texas instead of Duke, but the Aztecs might be one of the few teams that can match up physically with the Blue Devils. From there, you take your chances. That's pretty much what March Madness is all about.
If you have any doubt about where San Diego State and the Mountain West Conference stand up nationally in college basketball, that score tells you a lot. The Aztecs swept the Lobos this year, easily. UNM finished fifth in the MWC while the Miners were just a game out of first in Conference USA -- and went to the final game of the C-USA Tournament. They're pretty good, and the Lobos smoked them.
Here's what the result tells me. San Diego State is ready to compete with anyone, whether it be Northern Colorado on Thursday, or some combination in the future of Temple, Penn State, Cincinnati, UConn or Duke. The Aztecs stack up. That doesn't mean they will win, that's why they call it "March Madness."
While not overlooking the Bears on Thursday, I think the Aztecs are more likely to curly fry them than lose -- probably a typical SDSU close game at halftime with a second-half blowout led by defense. The game that scares me is Saturday, against the Temple/Penn State winner. That contest will be the difference between whether this team has a season considered to be successful or not. Right or wrong, San Diegans have the Sweet 16 as the destination for this club and anything less will be a disappointment. We could, and probably will, get a bit more, but anything beyond the Sweet 16 will be gravy.
So how does SDSU get to the Final Four? The key is for the Aztecs to not have an off-game from the perimeter, something you probably already know. They can shoot, but are prone to the occasional bad game. That can't happen or they will make an early exit. Otherwise, things could break their way. Both Temple and Penn State are guard oriented, and SDSU guards the three-point line well and can dominate in the paint. I'm less sold on UConn having nothing left after their Big East tourney run, but it could happen, if not this week, then by next. They could find themselves against Cincinnati next week just as easily as against the Huskies. In the regional final, they could face talented but inconsistent Texas instead of Duke, but the Aztecs might be one of the few teams that can match up physically with the Blue Devils. From there, you take your chances. That's pretty much what March Madness is all about.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Seniors Gather in Tucson for Beginning of the End
It will be a gathering of seniors in Tucson Thursday for the first full round of the NCAA Tournament's West Regional, including No. 2 seed San Diego State. The Aztecs will face Northern Colorado at 1:40 p.m. before taking on the winner of Temple and Penn State.
Three of the four are senior-oriented, taking away what has been SDSU's biggest advantage all year -- that experience of a roster full of guys who have been there, done that and won't get flustered. They survived the unexpectedly hard games (USF and Colorado State), the ones they didn't care about (IUPUI twice) and the physically grinding battles they knew were coming (UNLV thrice). Even in Saturday's 72-54 rout of BYU that gained them the MWC Tournament crown, they turned away a late Cougars rally that might have caused younger teams to fold.
UNC starts four seniors, including G Devon Beitzel, the Bears' best player. Penn State starts four seniors, including G Talor Battle, the Lions' best player. Temple might start only two seniors, but one, F Scootie Randall, has been sidelined recently with an injury and is probably the Owls best chance to match-up with the Aztecs front line.
SDSU received the seed and region they deserved and I don't see that any of the other No. 2s -- North Carolina, Notre Dame and Florida -- got paths to the Sweet 16 any tougher or easier than the Aztecs. To show you what a loss to BYU would have meant, the Cougars were seeded third and placed in Denver against a Wofford team that should not be taken lightly. That's not a bad game to consider for an upset pick when you fill out your bracket. They then have to face the winner of St. John's-Gonzaga. BYU's advantage will be proximity and altitude, which need no further explanation.
UNLV, the third Mountain West team in the bracket, gets a chance to knock off top-seeded Kansas for the second time in a row, as long as they can defeat inconsistent Illinois. Last year, the Rebels played poorly and fell to Northern Iowa, leaving the Panthers to take out KU. The way the Rebels are playing right now, they just might join SDSU in the Sweet 16.
That means the Aztecs have to uphold their end of the bargain and get there, too. With their senior advantage neutralized, the Aztecs will have to turn to their second strong point -- length. These teams just haven't gone up against many opponents who can dish out State's defensive disruption. That's something to hang our hats on, until the games get going Thursday.
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I won't share predictions. My brackets are always shredded by late-morning on Friday...How USC got in the tournament and UCLA was given a No. 7 seed are beyond me...Of all those pretty good teams SDSU played this year in lieu of the scared elites, only UCSB and Gonzaga made the field...If my count is right, only seven schools from non-BCS conferences received at-large bids. Two were from the MWC. I think St. Mary's and Cleveland State warranted more consideration before being relegated to the NIT.
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Padres P Tim Stauffer is looking like a potential ace after becoming the first starter to work five innings this spring...If 1B Anthony Rizzo is all-that, why did he get send to minor league camp so early? I understand a need to get him at bats, but he'd get plenty with the big guys for another week or so...With P Aaron Poreda also sent down Friday, it is looking more and more like the trade of P Jake Peavy is turning out to be straight-up him for P Clayton Richard...As well as OF Eric Patterson is doing, I like OF Aaron Cunningham. There has to be room for another gamer on the roster.
Three of the four are senior-oriented, taking away what has been SDSU's biggest advantage all year -- that experience of a roster full of guys who have been there, done that and won't get flustered. They survived the unexpectedly hard games (USF and Colorado State), the ones they didn't care about (IUPUI twice) and the physically grinding battles they knew were coming (UNLV thrice). Even in Saturday's 72-54 rout of BYU that gained them the MWC Tournament crown, they turned away a late Cougars rally that might have caused younger teams to fold.
UNC starts four seniors, including G Devon Beitzel, the Bears' best player. Penn State starts four seniors, including G Talor Battle, the Lions' best player. Temple might start only two seniors, but one, F Scootie Randall, has been sidelined recently with an injury and is probably the Owls best chance to match-up with the Aztecs front line.
SDSU received the seed and region they deserved and I don't see that any of the other No. 2s -- North Carolina, Notre Dame and Florida -- got paths to the Sweet 16 any tougher or easier than the Aztecs. To show you what a loss to BYU would have meant, the Cougars were seeded third and placed in Denver against a Wofford team that should not be taken lightly. That's not a bad game to consider for an upset pick when you fill out your bracket. They then have to face the winner of St. John's-Gonzaga. BYU's advantage will be proximity and altitude, which need no further explanation.
UNLV, the third Mountain West team in the bracket, gets a chance to knock off top-seeded Kansas for the second time in a row, as long as they can defeat inconsistent Illinois. Last year, the Rebels played poorly and fell to Northern Iowa, leaving the Panthers to take out KU. The way the Rebels are playing right now, they just might join SDSU in the Sweet 16.
That means the Aztecs have to uphold their end of the bargain and get there, too. With their senior advantage neutralized, the Aztecs will have to turn to their second strong point -- length. These teams just haven't gone up against many opponents who can dish out State's defensive disruption. That's something to hang our hats on, until the games get going Thursday.
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I won't share predictions. My brackets are always shredded by late-morning on Friday...How USC got in the tournament and UCLA was given a No. 7 seed are beyond me...Of all those pretty good teams SDSU played this year in lieu of the scared elites, only UCSB and Gonzaga made the field...If my count is right, only seven schools from non-BCS conferences received at-large bids. Two were from the MWC. I think St. Mary's and Cleveland State warranted more consideration before being relegated to the NIT.
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Padres P Tim Stauffer is looking like a potential ace after becoming the first starter to work five innings this spring...If 1B Anthony Rizzo is all-that, why did he get send to minor league camp so early? I understand a need to get him at bats, but he'd get plenty with the big guys for another week or so...With P Aaron Poreda also sent down Friday, it is looking more and more like the trade of P Jake Peavy is turning out to be straight-up him for P Clayton Richard...As well as OF Eric Patterson is doing, I like OF Aaron Cunningham. There has to be room for another gamer on the roster.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Gay's Back Determines Aztecs Fate, Sportscasters
As encouraging as it is to see San Diego State F Billy White becoming an offensive force again, the Aztecs will go as deep into the conference and NCAA tournaments as G DJ Gay's back allows.
Yes, we all know about how coach Steve Fisher calls Gay his "most important player" and it is true, but Gay is sinking barely over a quarter of his jumpers the past few games. He still logs significant minutes, but since he hurt his lower back a few weeks ago, his shot has been off just a smidgen. There have been more than a few in-and-outs that, earlier, would have tickled nothing but net.
If Gay's health allows him to return to form, the Aztecs will go deep. If not, there could be a disappointing early exit.
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Well, Don Norcross' article on San Diego sports talk radio hosts sure did draw a lot of attention, particularly over his rating of "zero microphones" for Lee Hamilton. Taste for any radio host is subjective, as we'll see in a moment. One odd example in news talk is a few years ago when Bill O'Reilly had a radio show, I like to listen to it very much. I can't stand his television program.
What it comes down to for me is if someone is talking about a sports topic I'm interested in, I listen. If not, I switch. My taste is subject-related, not about the host.
Some of my takes:
-- Scott & BR. I tuned them out years ago when every time I tuned in they were talking about the Lakers. This is San Diego. I don't know if they still talk a lot about the Lakers because I don't listen much. Also, Scott Kaplan is the radio voice of the Aztec bandwagon. Up to this year, all he did was bad-mouth or ignore SDSU athletics. Now they mean everything to him. Huh?
-- Hacksaw. I don't know about zero microphones. The guy does his schtick and always has. You either like it or you don't. It's like trashing green grapes because they're so 80s.
-- Darren Smith. When he first started in San Diego, he was maybe the worst sports radio host. Now he is one of the best. Not sure whether that means more for his improvement or about the drain of talent from the local market. He no longer sighs much, indicating to the listeners that they should be bored, so that is a good thing. He has a good head on his shoulders, so I think his opinions are worth a listen.
-- John Kentera. Coach is like Hamilton, he's done his thing consistently for decades now. I appreciate his love for high school sports. I get frustrated when he gets, often, tongue-tied.
-- I think Norcross was on the money with his takes on the hosts over at 1360. Chris Ello loves to take three pages to ask a question that most people could ask in a simple phrase. However, you can count on him to have a take on something no one else will have, and that in time will turn out to be correct.
Yes, we all know about how coach Steve Fisher calls Gay his "most important player" and it is true, but Gay is sinking barely over a quarter of his jumpers the past few games. He still logs significant minutes, but since he hurt his lower back a few weeks ago, his shot has been off just a smidgen. There have been more than a few in-and-outs that, earlier, would have tickled nothing but net.
If Gay's health allows him to return to form, the Aztecs will go deep. If not, there could be a disappointing early exit.
---
Well, Don Norcross' article on San Diego sports talk radio hosts sure did draw a lot of attention, particularly over his rating of "zero microphones" for Lee Hamilton. Taste for any radio host is subjective, as we'll see in a moment. One odd example in news talk is a few years ago when Bill O'Reilly had a radio show, I like to listen to it very much. I can't stand his television program.
What it comes down to for me is if someone is talking about a sports topic I'm interested in, I listen. If not, I switch. My taste is subject-related, not about the host.
Some of my takes:
-- Scott & BR. I tuned them out years ago when every time I tuned in they were talking about the Lakers. This is San Diego. I don't know if they still talk a lot about the Lakers because I don't listen much. Also, Scott Kaplan is the radio voice of the Aztec bandwagon. Up to this year, all he did was bad-mouth or ignore SDSU athletics. Now they mean everything to him. Huh?
-- Hacksaw. I don't know about zero microphones. The guy does his schtick and always has. You either like it or you don't. It's like trashing green grapes because they're so 80s.
-- Darren Smith. When he first started in San Diego, he was maybe the worst sports radio host. Now he is one of the best. Not sure whether that means more for his improvement or about the drain of talent from the local market. He no longer sighs much, indicating to the listeners that they should be bored, so that is a good thing. He has a good head on his shoulders, so I think his opinions are worth a listen.
-- John Kentera. Coach is like Hamilton, he's done his thing consistently for decades now. I appreciate his love for high school sports. I get frustrated when he gets, often, tongue-tied.
-- I think Norcross was on the money with his takes on the hosts over at 1360. Chris Ello loves to take three pages to ask a question that most people could ask in a simple phrase. However, you can count on him to have a take on something no one else will have, and that in time will turn out to be correct.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
MWC Teams Mostly Sensible, Other News
Usually, post-season voting in the Mountain West Conference focuses a lot more on the "mountain" and not so much on the "west," but the basketball all-MWC teams announced on Monday mostly make sense.
That includes San Diego State's Steve Fisher sharing the Coach of the Year Award with Dave Rose of BYU. Both have done amazing jobs this season. Critics of Rose say all he needs to do is direct Player of the Year Jimmer Fredette to drive or pull up for the jumper -- and then hide him on defense -- but he led a team with one star and a bunch of quality spare parts to a 28-3 record. That's an outstanding accomplishment. You can argue that the Aztecs should be 29-2 with their talent level relative to the competition they've played this season. Great jobs by both coaches, so sharing is appropriate.
I also think honorary-mention kudos should go to Colorado State's Tim Miles, who has his program on the rise. The Rams were knocking on the NCAA's door just a couple of weeks ago.
What thrilled me was the selection of G DJ Gay as a first-team player, along with the obvious choice of F Kawhi Leonard. Fisher kept referring to Gay as SDSU's "most important player," and he is, and voters were listening.
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I read the joint statement from San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders and Chargers owner Dean Spanos on their meeting about the stadium issue, and didn't come away with too much. They chatted, Sanders told him there wouldn't be much redevelopment money to pay for a new facility. They talked more and Spanos told him not to expect financing help from the NFL. Then they sighed and scheduled another meeting.
I wonder if they can combine the football stadium and a new city hall into one project.
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Let me see, Padres 3B Chase Headley blames his mediocre 2010 results on his inability to retain weight. According to the newspaper, he dropped from 208 pounds to 200. That's EIGHT pounds! EIGHT (8)! You can lose eight pounds in an extra-inning July day game in St. Louis. How about this? He wasn't very good at the plate.
He might be better this year. I hope he is, for his sake and ours. Seems like a nice kid, just drop the excuses. It's baseball and he was beaten by the competition.
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Speaking of being unrealistic, there's Padres GM Jed Hoyer, who tried to make Gregg Zaun the backup catcher, only to have him retire on Tuesday. Zaun is a tender 39 years of age. Sixteen years of crouching behind the plate will make you tender. And they were counting on him? There's planning for you...The Padres got shut down by Kansas City P Sean O'Sullivan (Valhalla High) on Monday and Oakland P Trevor Cahill (Vista High) Tuesday...Oft-injured P Joel Zumaya (Montgomery High) might miss the beginning of the regular season because of a sore elbow...SDSU baseball now has a 2-10 record after losing 12-9 to Cal State Northridge. The Aztecs shouldn't lose to Northridge in any sport...USD is not much better at 3-7.
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The San Diego Union-Tribune rates the hosts heard on local sports talk radio programs on Wednesday. I don't agree with all the writer's ratings, but he makes a lot of good points.
That includes San Diego State's Steve Fisher sharing the Coach of the Year Award with Dave Rose of BYU. Both have done amazing jobs this season. Critics of Rose say all he needs to do is direct Player of the Year Jimmer Fredette to drive or pull up for the jumper -- and then hide him on defense -- but he led a team with one star and a bunch of quality spare parts to a 28-3 record. That's an outstanding accomplishment. You can argue that the Aztecs should be 29-2 with their talent level relative to the competition they've played this season. Great jobs by both coaches, so sharing is appropriate.
I also think honorary-mention kudos should go to Colorado State's Tim Miles, who has his program on the rise. The Rams were knocking on the NCAA's door just a couple of weeks ago.
What thrilled me was the selection of G DJ Gay as a first-team player, along with the obvious choice of F Kawhi Leonard. Fisher kept referring to Gay as SDSU's "most important player," and he is, and voters were listening.
---
I read the joint statement from San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders and Chargers owner Dean Spanos on their meeting about the stadium issue, and didn't come away with too much. They chatted, Sanders told him there wouldn't be much redevelopment money to pay for a new facility. They talked more and Spanos told him not to expect financing help from the NFL. Then they sighed and scheduled another meeting.
I wonder if they can combine the football stadium and a new city hall into one project.
---
Let me see, Padres 3B Chase Headley blames his mediocre 2010 results on his inability to retain weight. According to the newspaper, he dropped from 208 pounds to 200. That's EIGHT pounds! EIGHT (8)! You can lose eight pounds in an extra-inning July day game in St. Louis. How about this? He wasn't very good at the plate.
He might be better this year. I hope he is, for his sake and ours. Seems like a nice kid, just drop the excuses. It's baseball and he was beaten by the competition.
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Speaking of being unrealistic, there's Padres GM Jed Hoyer, who tried to make Gregg Zaun the backup catcher, only to have him retire on Tuesday. Zaun is a tender 39 years of age. Sixteen years of crouching behind the plate will make you tender. And they were counting on him? There's planning for you...The Padres got shut down by Kansas City P Sean O'Sullivan (Valhalla High) on Monday and Oakland P Trevor Cahill (Vista High) Tuesday...Oft-injured P Joel Zumaya (Montgomery High) might miss the beginning of the regular season because of a sore elbow...SDSU baseball now has a 2-10 record after losing 12-9 to Cal State Northridge. The Aztecs shouldn't lose to Northridge in any sport...USD is not much better at 3-7.
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The San Diego Union-Tribune rates the hosts heard on local sports talk radio programs on Wednesday. I don't agree with all the writer's ratings, but he makes a lot of good points.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Karma Puts SDSU Back in Title Picture
"Instant Karma's gonna get you,
Gonna knock you right on the head" -- John Lennon
No truer words were ever spoken when it comes to BYU athletics and especially their insufferable fans. Just days after the Cougars shot the lights out, again, to beat San Diego State in a big college basketball game and their fans gloated like crazy, their best frontline player, Brandon Davies, was suspended for the year for having sex with his girlfriend -- a violation of the BYU honor code. The Cougars lost their next game by 18 points to drop into, hey, a tie in the Mountain West Conference standings with SDSU.
If both teams win Saturday, or both lose, they'll finish in a tie at the top of the MWC heap. BYU would receive the top-seed in the MWC Tournament on the strength of their sweep over the Aztecs. If there's a split, the winner takes the title outright.
Both teams will be at home, but SDSU has the tougher opponent, Colorado State. Wyoming travels to Provo just hoping to end its nightmare of a season. So there is no gloating here, because BYU is likely to win its finale by 30 and figure out a way to restore an inside presence for March Madness. I also take note that, far different from football, the Aztecs coaches and players have nothing but respect for coach Dave Rose, Jimmer and the rest of the basketball Cougars. And you have to appreciate them for living by their standards, whether you agree with them or not. I actually hope they get things together for the NCAA Tournament.
Their fans are another story. If, and it remains an if, the teams remain tied atop the conference standings Sunday morning, BYU's fans will always see San Diego State right there with the same record. Priceless.
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Tony Gwynn and the SDSU baseball team is off to a 1-6 start, having only beaten Winthrop. The losses have come to highly regarded Vanderbilt, defending champion UCLA, tough UC Irvine and USD, so it's not like the wheels are coming off. They have a young team.
Yet, this weekend they play host to Cal, UConn and Oklahoma, and the following weekend Arkansas comes in for four. There's no reason to suspect the record is going to improve any. They could easily begin the season with only two or three victories despite playing 14 of their first 15 games at home. That is not a way to start a season.
Last May, I wrote that Gwynn deserved a mulligan for a 28-28 2010 record that included a ridiculous siege of injuries. You have to extend it to this year because of his bout with cancer and the youth of his team. Against the Bruins, Gwynn started four freshmen and two sophomores. Like coach Bill Grier with his tender young basketball team over at USD, we'll have to watch for signs of improvement over the course of the season before making any determinations about the future.
Gonna knock you right on the head" -- John Lennon
No truer words were ever spoken when it comes to BYU athletics and especially their insufferable fans. Just days after the Cougars shot the lights out, again, to beat San Diego State in a big college basketball game and their fans gloated like crazy, their best frontline player, Brandon Davies, was suspended for the year for having sex with his girlfriend -- a violation of the BYU honor code. The Cougars lost their next game by 18 points to drop into, hey, a tie in the Mountain West Conference standings with SDSU.
If both teams win Saturday, or both lose, they'll finish in a tie at the top of the MWC heap. BYU would receive the top-seed in the MWC Tournament on the strength of their sweep over the Aztecs. If there's a split, the winner takes the title outright.
Both teams will be at home, but SDSU has the tougher opponent, Colorado State. Wyoming travels to Provo just hoping to end its nightmare of a season. So there is no gloating here, because BYU is likely to win its finale by 30 and figure out a way to restore an inside presence for March Madness. I also take note that, far different from football, the Aztecs coaches and players have nothing but respect for coach Dave Rose, Jimmer and the rest of the basketball Cougars. And you have to appreciate them for living by their standards, whether you agree with them or not. I actually hope they get things together for the NCAA Tournament.
Their fans are another story. If, and it remains an if, the teams remain tied atop the conference standings Sunday morning, BYU's fans will always see San Diego State right there with the same record. Priceless.
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Tony Gwynn and the SDSU baseball team is off to a 1-6 start, having only beaten Winthrop. The losses have come to highly regarded Vanderbilt, defending champion UCLA, tough UC Irvine and USD, so it's not like the wheels are coming off. They have a young team.
Yet, this weekend they play host to Cal, UConn and Oklahoma, and the following weekend Arkansas comes in for four. There's no reason to suspect the record is going to improve any. They could easily begin the season with only two or three victories despite playing 14 of their first 15 games at home. That is not a way to start a season.
Last May, I wrote that Gwynn deserved a mulligan for a 28-28 2010 record that included a ridiculous siege of injuries. You have to extend it to this year because of his bout with cancer and the youth of his team. Against the Bruins, Gwynn started four freshmen and two sophomores. Like coach Bill Grier with his tender young basketball team over at USD, we'll have to watch for signs of improvement over the course of the season before making any determinations about the future.
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