San Diego State's season-opening 81-65 victory at Long Beach State Saturday afternoon serves as a preview of how this year is going to play out, hopefully. The schedule is loaded with favorites or contenders from lesser, but still respectable conferences, that will give State their best shots in games that are generally going to be at their place. That means close games well into the second half before SDSU's extreme depth of talent influences the outcome in a positive way.
The only game early on the calendar that I don't see that scenario playing out is Tuesday at Gonzaga. God only knows what's going to happen in Spokane against the #12 Bulldogs. Saint Mary's, at Viejas Arena on Dec. 1, is also a concern. But this, in general, is how games are going to play out.
A lot is being made about transfer G James Rahon making 4-of-7 from behind the three-point stripe. What caught my attention was DJ Gay's 4-of-5 on threes. If he can shoot well over the course of the season, then the Aztecs are going to be good for a lot of points.
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San Diego State football fans should enjoy what they have in QB Ryan Lindley, an imperfect work in progress as a passer who might throw the best deep ball of anyone in the college game. No play is more fun to watch than the bomb, and no one hits more of them than Lindley, thanks in huge part to WRs Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson.
Lindley at TCU, against the best defense overall in college football, and the best passing defense, completed throws of 49, 33 and 35 yards, all to Brown and the last two for scores. The first went to the Frogs' one. Another TD was set up by a long completion.
The Aztecs back in the early-1990s had a QB named Tim Gutierrez who rode pine most of his career, finally got into some games and displayed a beautiful touch on deep passes but suffered a career-ending injury. Just a couple of years before that, Dan McGwire was unmatched in throwing bombs to WR Patrick Rowe. That was a long, long time ago, and it is nice to have it back.
The flip-side is that Lindley has absolutely no touch for short passes. He's been the starting QB since the beginning of his redshirt freshman season, and I still don't think he's completed a screen pass. The only ones I know of that didn't hit the ground ended up in the hands of a defensive player. I exaggerate, but only slightly. It's an unusual trade-off in a world where 99 percent of quarterbacks owe their careers to the late-Bill Walsh's development of the short passing game. Fans need to take the bad with the good.
One other thing sets Lindley apart, his ability to lead a football team. It appears that leadership on the Aztecs is not tightly centralized, but on offense seems spread across FB Brandon Sullivan, C Trask Iosefa and other seniors. But the junior Lindley is the quarterback, so on the field, he runs the show. Every Mountain West Conference opponent until Saturday gave SDSU its best shot, and I don't know if the Aztecs would have won any of them without Lindley's steady presence. State won those games because he made plays, and allowed others to make plays. That's important.
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The past couple weeks have greatly narrowed the field of likely schools for San Diego's two bowl games.
Holiday
Big 12: I think you can call Nebraska, Missouri and Oklahoma State gone, but I don't see a second BCS team from this conference, so the selection order should be straightforward. Texas A&M is hot and has a tie-breaking win over Oklahoma. So the choices probably come down to Kansas State, which has an easy path to a final record of 8-4 with games against Colorado and North Texas, or the Sooners, who are 8-2 but still have to play at Baylor and at Oklahoma State.
Pac-10: Oregon and Stanford are out of the picture, but the Cardinal serves as the linchpin. If they beat Cal next week in The Big Game at Berkeley, they're going to join the Ducks in the BCS. That knocks the Holiday Bowl down still another notch in the selection process. A Stanford BCS scenario could mean Cal at 6-6 or 7-5 or UCLA at 6-6 or 7-5. I don't think Holiday Bowl officials thought of themselves offering a 6-6 bowl when they were devalued effective 2010, but look at the Pac-10 standings and you'll see the potential. If Stanford loses to Cal, look for Arizona to make a return trip.
Poinsettia
Navy is in for sure but SDSU, also nearly a sure thing just hours before this Sunday writing, now could be ticketed for Las Vegas. Utah's collapse, coupled with an Aztecs upset of the Utes next Saturday, will make SDSU the clear second choice in the conference. Apparently, the bowl directors work all this stuff out so the odds are still Utah to Vegas and SDSU to the Poinsettia. But an Aztecs win over the Utes, and maybe even a BYU win over Utah, could change matters.
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The three decade-long Gwynn Era is over in San Diego.
That's my take on the trade announced Saturday that brought 23-year-old Cameron Maybin over from the Marlins in exchange for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. Maybin is an athletic centerfield prospect who is five years younger than Tony Gwynn Jr., who in his year and a half in San Diego has pretty much proven that he is a good defensive outfielder who can't hit.
Maybin is supposed to be a great defender who can't hit, at least so far. But it's early to give up on him, while we pretty much know what the Padres have in Gwynn. Maybin was brought over specifically to fill his role. It is a shame, but junior is not going to be on the Friars roster by April.
Whether it is wise to replace him with a .246 career hitter is another story.
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