The Padres aren't going to budge.
As I predicted before the season, the Padres pitching depth is keeping them in the National League West race and I don't see that changing as we near the season's halfway point. The Padres, indeed, are in first place with their 42-30 record. How that compares to previous successful seasons, courtesy of Pro Baseball Reference:
-- In their first year over .500, 1978, they were 35-37 at this point with a pitching staff that included Gaylord Perry, Bob Shirley and Rollie Fingers.
-- In the World Series season of 1984, they got out of the gate fast, stumbled in May and had their best month in June. After 72 games, they were 43-29 and four games in front in their division. That won-loss mark is just a game better than the current pace.
-- The exciting chase of the Giants in 1989 came up short in large part because of a serious June Swoon, leaving them with a 35-37 mark and eight games out of first place. The Friars dropped 11 back just days later, and were a season-worst 12 games out of first on July 25. From there, they went on a tear, closing to within 5 games of the Giants on Sept. 12. Alas, they got no closer for nearly two weeks and finished three games behind. That was the year Mark Davis won the Cy Young Award, only to sign a free agent contract with Kansas City, where his career collapsed.
-- 1996, the season of Chris Gwynn's division-winning double in Los Angeles, saw the Friars at 37-35.
-- In the World Series year of 1998, the Padres tore out of the gate again, were near the end of an 11-game winning streak, with a record of 47-25. That was just a great team that was light-years better than the current team from 1-25 on the roster, with the lone exception of first base.
While 1998 is an unfair comparison, this year's Padres compare reasonably well with those other teams in terms of performance. 1B Adrian Gonzalez is on a terrific streak at the plate -- maybe the best several weeks of his career -- and even whipping boy Will Venable shows signs of turning it around.
P Mat Latos is turning into a Number One starter who is dominating opposing hitters the same way a young Jake Peavy did and maybe better. The 7th/8th/9th innings combination of Luke Gregerson/Mike Adams/Heath Bell is unmatched in the major leagues.
However, there's no way I'm going to say the Padres will actually win the division, because there are plenty of concerns:
-- Tony Gwynn Jr.'s batting average is back under .230,
-- Nick Hundley's batting average has dropped 20 points in the past two weeks after Manager Bud Black began putting him higher up in the batting order.
-- That Hundley is hitting at cleanup lately is because Chase Headley's average is down to .257 following a torrid April.
-- Jon Garland has been shelled in three of his last four starts, Kevin Correia has one win over May and June, and Clayton Richard hasn't won a game in more than a month even though he's thrown fairly well.
The strain of needing nightly perfection could be placing a strain on the starting pitchers. The lineup has to start producing, no question.
That 40-32 mark translates to a .583 winning percentage. Over the course of a full season, that's 94 wins. Here's where that would have placed in the NL West in recent seasons:
2009- 2nd by one game,
2008- 1st by 10 games,
2007- 1st by 4 games,
2006- improve their own first-place finish by 6 games,
2005- improve their own division title by 12 games,
2004- 1st place by one game,
2003- 2nd by six games, and
2002- Third.
So they're in good shape. However, since baseball is a human game and the opposition is always striving to improve, the Padres must do the same in order to maintain the same pace of success. There is a lot to look forward to at the ballpark this summer.
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Have you read enough "Mat Latos is Maturing" stories in the newspaper? Me, too. Someone, please, come up with something new.
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