I thought it best to post this on April Fool's Day because you might think it a joke, but it's not. In all seriousness, I think the Padres are going to be competitive this season in a flawed National League West. I have no idea if they'll win, or whether they'll be close in late September, but they're going to have a much better season the 2009. They'll be in the race, I believe, most of the way.
There you go, it's out -- and there's no joyous call of "April Fool's" followed by a :)
To demonstrate, let’s go through an exercise of comparing the Padres position-by-position with the Dodgers and other NL West rivals. Last year at this time, you’d take nearly every LA position player and most pitchers over what the Friars offered.
This year, I would take the entire Padres infield over their Dodgers counterparts, and while LA owns the outfield, the margin is much closer than it had been. The bullpens are even. I like the Padres starting rotation, though LA’s is pretty decent. What a world of difference in just a year. The Giants’ rotation is better than the Padres but they’re pretty even in the field. I think the top of the Rockies rotation is better than the Padres, but the Friars have the better back end and bullpen. The Rox are better in the field. Arizona is the only team I really see falling out of the race.
So, in looking ahead, I can see everyone else with a shot at a division title by the time football season starts. I think the teams are so evenly matched I couldn’t really take a look at one factor or another and place them in any particular order – especially in a predicted finish. The winners and losers will likely be determined by a devastating injury or a trade-deadline pickup. The latter would appear to favor the well-heeled Giants and Dodgers over the residents of Petco Park. The winner will probably not have much more than 90 wins, so look for the wildcard team to come from another division.
The NL West is flawed? Most definitely. The Rockies are depending on the return of Jeff Francis to stabilize their rotation, the Dodgers have injury problems in the pitching staff and an uncertain infield, the Giants don’t hit well and the Diamondback’s youth movement didn’t pan out.
The keys to a big season for the locals are LF Kyle Blanks and P Kevin Correia. It looks like Blanks is being thrown right into the fire in a key spot in the batting order, so he will have to produce. He’s going to come to the plate quite often with runners on base, possibly in scoring position, and two outs following a walk to Adrian Gonzalez. His ability to drive the ball or strike out will be a big determinant of the Friars’ fate. Being completely unsure of what Chris Young is capable of anymore, Correia needs to prove that last year was a trend-setter, not an anomaly. He’s going to need to throw like a Number 2 starter, which will be a bonus if Young produces like he used to. I’m still unsure about Clayton Richard, but I think Mat Latos will be a star at the end of the rotation. If either fails, there are plenty of arms there to replace them.
Whatever happens, it will be a lot of fun. I’m as excited for the start of the major league season now than I have been in many years, not so much because I think the Padres will be so great but to see how everything plays out.
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