I know a lot of Chargers fans are pricing out plane tickets to Miami, but I'm probably the one guy in town who remains skeptical about their chances of making the Super Bowl.
My worry isn't Indianapolis, against whom the Chargers are comfortable. The Bolts certainly never fear playing the Colts on the road. If they make it to the AFC Championship Game, then I'm happy to take my chances.
I'm worried about that first playoff game, most likely against the Patriots or Ravens.
The Patriots are still the Patriots even without WR Wes Welker -- maybe not what they once were, but still a serious threat. The Ravens have won at Qualcomm already this season, and took three of their last four games after struggling in November. Both are the kind of big, strong teams that the Chargers sometimes struggle with.
I do think the Chargers are the best team in the best conference, so if they can get past a potential first-game matchup problem, they might not only get to the Super Bowl, but win it.
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There was quite a bit of talk about Nick Canepa's column in The San Diego Union-Tribune, a sort of "told you so" piece about GM AJ Smith and coach Norv Turner. I've backed Turner from the get-go. My issue with Smith is he ignores the line of scrimmage until there's a crisis, then he tries to plug the leaks. Sometimes, like this year, it works. If the Bolts are de-railed by the Patriots or Ravens, it will be because they aren't Super Bowl caliber in the trenches.
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Tuesday night's contest between San Diego State's basketball team and 15th ranked New Mexico was a "put up or shut up" match for the Aztecs. That they won by 10 points, 74-64, even with Billy White going down to a high ankle sprain in the first half and some foul trouble, shows they're ready for business after early stumbles.
The game against the Lobos was their 15th, plenty of time for new players to jell. Early losses to Saint Mary's and Pacific came while everyone was learning their roles. A more recent setback at Arizona State was just something that happens on the road sometimes. Fine, but by the beginning of conference play, it's a matter of whether or not you're good enough. It appears the Aztecs are.
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A few weeks ago, I said the Aztecs would lose no more than three games the rest of the season. The loss in Tempe was one, and it was something I accounted for in my thinking. So we're on track. On the other hand, that means the Aztecs have to go 14-2 in a tough Mountain West Conference. Still could happen. We'll find out Saturday just how hard the road games will be when they play at Wyoming.
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After the turmoil of a 7-9 non-conference schedule, I think the USD men have a solid shot at third place in the West Coast Conference behind Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. The competition will be Portland and, surprise, Loyola-Marymount. Bigger surprise, LMU might be the stiffer competition.
The Pilots have really tailed off after their 5-0 start. The Lions, however, have won six straight games, with victims including pretty good teams in Notre Dame and Long Beach State.
The Toreros host Portland next week but don't travel to LMU until the end of the month. Those are the first two of four games between USD and their competitors that will be critical to conference tournament seeding.
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