In its last year as a relevant post-season contest, it would be nice for the hometown Holiday Bowl to come up with a meaningful game between a couple of powerhouses. It might yet, but the races in the Pac-10 and Big 12 are a bit muddled right now, so it's hard to tell if this December's match-up will be a good one or not.
The Holiday Bowl traditionally gets the second choice from the Pac-10 and third from the Big 12 -- barring those conferences getting unexpected at-large bids from the BCS -- a set up that has provided us fans with some exciting games over the years. However, the Alamo Bowl outbid the Holiday when the contracts with the conferences were extended, so next year it will be the third- and fifth-place teams, respectively.
That's a huge difference, going from national powers to simply decent teams lucky to be ranked at all. The Big 12, for example, has only two teams in the BCS Top 25.
So it would be nice if the Holiday Bowl could arrange one more big-time match before becoming just another December game. Even there you have problems.
First is that old BCS at-large bugaboo and its not too hard to see a situation where both Oregon and USC play in January. That would have the Holiday Bowl pick among Arizona, Stanford and Cal the way the standings are set up today. Cal has the easiest schedule among them and could be primed for yet another trip to San Diego. The UA/Cal game Nov. 14 in Berkeley could be for the game.
Second, the Big 12 is a jumble. Figuring that Texas and Oklahoma State are out of reach -- and the two play this Saturday -- your pool includes just about every team in the league but Colorado, Missouri and Baylor. There's a bunch of middlin' teams in there that rank in the 30s and 40s nationally but won't make people turn on their television during the holidays.
The Holiday Bowl has been charmed throughout its history, and it would not surprise me to see Executive Director Bruce Binkowski and his team pull another rabbit out of the hat. Maybe USC falls at Oregon Saturday and with two losses is eliminated from BCS consideration. Could happen and that would satisfy a long term dream. Otherwise, they will have to reach a little deeper this season, and that will only be practice for the years that follow.
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The Poinsettia Bowl's flexibility might be its greatest strength. You know going in that they won't have the best teams but that the bowl committee can often put together an interesting matchup among what remains. Of course, they struck gold last year with TCU and Boise State, which was the third or fourth best pairing of the entire bowl season. That will be a tough act to follow, though it appears one or both could get screwed out of the BCS again.
This year it will be a Mountain West team against whoever is bowl eligible among the Pac-10 or WAC.
How it breaks down on the MWC side: the Poinsettia Bowl has the second pick, but since TCU is almost certainly going to a BCS game, it will be essentially the third. Look for the Nov. 21 game between BYU and Air Force to be the decider, with the winner coming here.
How it breaks down for the Pac-10: last year there weren't enough bowl-eligible teams. That won't be repeated this season since seven schools are either set now or within two wins. Looking at the standings, the best hope might be that Stanford can pull out a win among its brutal final schedule: Oregon, USC, Cal, Notre Dame. I think Binkowski can sell Max Hall vs. Toby Gerhart.
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Maybe next week I'll write about SDSU's bowl prospects, if any. Really, the game at Colorado State was only one win over an already reeling team. The Aztecs have a long climb just to 6-6. Let them get past New Mexico, or not, and then we'll talk.
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