In its last year as a relevant post-season contest, it would be nice for the hometown Holiday Bowl to come up with a meaningful game between a couple of powerhouses. It might yet, but the races in the Pac-10 and Big 12 are a bit muddled right now, so it's hard to tell if this December's match-up will be a good one or not.
The Holiday Bowl traditionally gets the second choice from the Pac-10 and third from the Big 12 -- barring those conferences getting unexpected at-large bids from the BCS -- a set up that has provided us fans with some exciting games over the years. However, the Alamo Bowl outbid the Holiday when the contracts with the conferences were extended, so next year it will be the third- and fifth-place teams, respectively.
That's a huge difference, going from national powers to simply decent teams lucky to be ranked at all. The Big 12, for example, has only two teams in the BCS Top 25.
So it would be nice if the Holiday Bowl could arrange one more big-time match before becoming just another December game. Even there you have problems.
First is that old BCS at-large bugaboo and its not too hard to see a situation where both Oregon and USC play in January. That would have the Holiday Bowl pick among Arizona, Stanford and Cal the way the standings are set up today. Cal has the easiest schedule among them and could be primed for yet another trip to San Diego. The UA/Cal game Nov. 14 in Berkeley could be for the game.
Second, the Big 12 is a jumble. Figuring that Texas and Oklahoma State are out of reach -- and the two play this Saturday -- your pool includes just about every team in the league but Colorado, Missouri and Baylor. There's a bunch of middlin' teams in there that rank in the 30s and 40s nationally but won't make people turn on their television during the holidays.
The Holiday Bowl has been charmed throughout its history, and it would not surprise me to see Executive Director Bruce Binkowski and his team pull another rabbit out of the hat. Maybe USC falls at Oregon Saturday and with two losses is eliminated from BCS consideration. Could happen and that would satisfy a long term dream. Otherwise, they will have to reach a little deeper this season, and that will only be practice for the years that follow.
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The Poinsettia Bowl's flexibility might be its greatest strength. You know going in that they won't have the best teams but that the bowl committee can often put together an interesting matchup among what remains. Of course, they struck gold last year with TCU and Boise State, which was the third or fourth best pairing of the entire bowl season. That will be a tough act to follow, though it appears one or both could get screwed out of the BCS again.
This year it will be a Mountain West team against whoever is bowl eligible among the Pac-10 or WAC.
How it breaks down on the MWC side: the Poinsettia Bowl has the second pick, but since TCU is almost certainly going to a BCS game, it will be essentially the third. Look for the Nov. 21 game between BYU and Air Force to be the decider, with the winner coming here.
How it breaks down for the Pac-10: last year there weren't enough bowl-eligible teams. That won't be repeated this season since seven schools are either set now or within two wins. Looking at the standings, the best hope might be that Stanford can pull out a win among its brutal final schedule: Oregon, USC, Cal, Notre Dame. I think Binkowski can sell Max Hall vs. Toby Gerhart.
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Maybe next week I'll write about SDSU's bowl prospects, if any. Really, the game at Colorado State was only one win over an already reeling team. The Aztecs have a long climb just to 6-6. Let them get past New Mexico, or not, and then we'll talk.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Thoughts on Hoyer, Aztecs, Norv, Alex
Thoughts on various current items:
1. Count me as favorable initially about the Padres hiring of Jed Hoyer as general manager. When Dodgers Asst. GM Kim Ng was named a front-runner, I was worried that we were going to have an activist owner who busied himself too far into baseball matters. Ng is known as a strong administrator more than anything, which is good, but she's been with LA for years and they were nothing on the field until Ned Colletti took over from Paul DePodesta. At least the appearance would have been that she'd simply be an order-taker on baseball matters. I'd like Jeff Moorad to be an activist, certainly, but in the more appropriate areas of ownership. Now comes Hoyer, who appears energetic and well-prepared after spending most of the decade with the Red Sox. He looks like his own man. Now as long as he doesn't view the Padres as contenders like his predecessor, we'll be on the same page.
2. In the first half at Fort Collins last Saturday, it sure looked like Coach Brady Hoke was wrong in his apparent assessment that his Aztecs looked ready to turn the corner and become winners. Then came the second half, which might have been the best single half on the road in conference play since QB Tim Gutierrez led SDSU over Air Force back in the early-90s. Wow. Hoke was right. If he can figure out a way to get his players over the next hump, a New Mexico team used to beating the Aztecs and angry that former coach Rocky Long will be on the opposing sideline, then we might really have something here.
3. I've held back from saying this for a while, but I'm going to tell you why I think fans, who don't really know Norv Turner, don't like him. It's the Norv. People can be extremely shallow at times and the man has an unusual first name. People don't like Norv because he's named Norv and that's about all they know of him. They forget he has a brilliant offensive mind and has accomplished more in San Diego than Marty Schottenheimer ever did, and is arguably doing it with less talent because the offensive and defensive lines suck. Beat the Raiders and the Bolts will have a 4-3 record and we'll see what happens.
4. Former Helix HS QB Alex Smith is the new starter in San Francisco after Shaun Hill was pulled following a horrid first half in Houston. Smith came in and threw three TD passes to nearly pull the 49ers back from a big deficit. He did toss an INT in the closing seconds of a 24-21 loss, but its nice to see him back in the saddle. It will be interesting to see what an older, wiser Smith can do -- assisted by RB Frank Gore's return from an injury.
1. Count me as favorable initially about the Padres hiring of Jed Hoyer as general manager. When Dodgers Asst. GM Kim Ng was named a front-runner, I was worried that we were going to have an activist owner who busied himself too far into baseball matters. Ng is known as a strong administrator more than anything, which is good, but she's been with LA for years and they were nothing on the field until Ned Colletti took over from Paul DePodesta. At least the appearance would have been that she'd simply be an order-taker on baseball matters. I'd like Jeff Moorad to be an activist, certainly, but in the more appropriate areas of ownership. Now comes Hoyer, who appears energetic and well-prepared after spending most of the decade with the Red Sox. He looks like his own man. Now as long as he doesn't view the Padres as contenders like his predecessor, we'll be on the same page.
2. In the first half at Fort Collins last Saturday, it sure looked like Coach Brady Hoke was wrong in his apparent assessment that his Aztecs looked ready to turn the corner and become winners. Then came the second half, which might have been the best single half on the road in conference play since QB Tim Gutierrez led SDSU over Air Force back in the early-90s. Wow. Hoke was right. If he can figure out a way to get his players over the next hump, a New Mexico team used to beating the Aztecs and angry that former coach Rocky Long will be on the opposing sideline, then we might really have something here.
3. I've held back from saying this for a while, but I'm going to tell you why I think fans, who don't really know Norv Turner, don't like him. It's the Norv. People can be extremely shallow at times and the man has an unusual first name. People don't like Norv because he's named Norv and that's about all they know of him. They forget he has a brilliant offensive mind and has accomplished more in San Diego than Marty Schottenheimer ever did, and is arguably doing it with less talent because the offensive and defensive lines suck. Beat the Raiders and the Bolts will have a 4-3 record and we'll see what happens.
4. Former Helix HS QB Alex Smith is the new starter in San Francisco after Shaun Hill was pulled following a horrid first half in Houston. Smith came in and threw three TD passes to nearly pull the 49ers back from a big deficit. He did toss an INT in the closing seconds of a 24-21 loss, but its nice to see him back in the saddle. It will be interesting to see what an older, wiser Smith can do -- assisted by RB Frank Gore's return from an injury.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Aztecs Ready for Next Step
Relatively pleased fans of San Diego State football who left last Saturday's 38-28 loss to BYU must have been awfully confused listening to coach Brady Hoke's comments that he was embarrassed by the performance of his team, which didn't play to win.
That was a bit of a head-scratcher, because the fans witnessed the belated arrival of the passing game and pressed a ranked team nearly all the way to the end. There was enough adversity to send some of Chuck Long's teams into a 50-point tank, yet it didn't happen. That the defense gave up more than 500 yards to the Cougars was as much a testament to how good they are on offense and the fact that QB Max Hall is at least a small part of the discussion about the Heisman Trophy.
If Brady Hoke left Qualcomm Stadium last Saturday embarrassed, he was one of the few. After chewing over his statements for a couple of days, I think I've stumbled on an explanation: he thinks his Aztecs are ready for the next step.
When Hoke arrived last December, he talked about his first priority being instilling physical and mental toughness back into the program. After looking at the first six games, 2-4 record or no, I'd say mission accomplished. The BYU game is a shining example. That huge Cougar RB, Harvey Unga, gained barely 3 yards per carry in something like 26 totes. He's been the type of guy who ran all over the Aztecs in previous seasons. Also, SDSU held in two 4th-and-short situations and I'm not sure anyone has converted such a play against the Aztecs this year in at least four tries (no I don't have time now to check the stats -- feel free).
So while we're celebrating the toughness exhibited by the Aztecs last week, it appears to me that Brady Hoke is moving on to the next step of overall concepts: getting the Aztecs to play winning football. Enough with the close games. Let's win some.
Again, the BYU game is a great example. Hoke talks about arm-tackling and whether the players believe they can tackle good opponents the way they're supposed to. I look at the BYU game and see two plays that made the difference, another horrible interception thrown by QB Ryan Lindley at the goal line that cost them a TD and the defense not being mentally alert in allowing Hall to walk into the end zone after he pretended to spike the ball at the two. That's a 14-point swing right there. Toss in some dropped third-down passes and there you go. The UCLA and Idaho losses also swung on just a couple of key plays. Eliminate those and you're playing winning football.
Hoke must think the Aztecs are getting close. We'll see.
The transition to this new stage of development comes at a good time. SDSU travels to Colorado State Saturday, and the Rams have lost four straight games. Then 0-6 New Mexico comes to town. Win those two and the Aztecs are 4-4 and who knows.
It will be tougher than it sounds. The Aztecs haven't won on the road since 2007 and the Rams have beaten Colorado of the Big 12, have an experienced offensive line and a wide receiver with the ability to destroy a weak SDSU secondary. New Mexico will be a blood bath perfectly suited for Halloween as both teams get hyped over the presence of Aztecs defensive coordinator Rocky Long, the former Lobos head coach. If they still hold bowl hopes, they better win the two games because TCU is up next and Utah isn't too far down the road.
Hoke might think the Aztecs are ready for the next step. The only question is when the team is able to take it.
That was a bit of a head-scratcher, because the fans witnessed the belated arrival of the passing game and pressed a ranked team nearly all the way to the end. There was enough adversity to send some of Chuck Long's teams into a 50-point tank, yet it didn't happen. That the defense gave up more than 500 yards to the Cougars was as much a testament to how good they are on offense and the fact that QB Max Hall is at least a small part of the discussion about the Heisman Trophy.
If Brady Hoke left Qualcomm Stadium last Saturday embarrassed, he was one of the few. After chewing over his statements for a couple of days, I think I've stumbled on an explanation: he thinks his Aztecs are ready for the next step.
When Hoke arrived last December, he talked about his first priority being instilling physical and mental toughness back into the program. After looking at the first six games, 2-4 record or no, I'd say mission accomplished. The BYU game is a shining example. That huge Cougar RB, Harvey Unga, gained barely 3 yards per carry in something like 26 totes. He's been the type of guy who ran all over the Aztecs in previous seasons. Also, SDSU held in two 4th-and-short situations and I'm not sure anyone has converted such a play against the Aztecs this year in at least four tries (no I don't have time now to check the stats -- feel free).
So while we're celebrating the toughness exhibited by the Aztecs last week, it appears to me that Brady Hoke is moving on to the next step of overall concepts: getting the Aztecs to play winning football. Enough with the close games. Let's win some.
Again, the BYU game is a great example. Hoke talks about arm-tackling and whether the players believe they can tackle good opponents the way they're supposed to. I look at the BYU game and see two plays that made the difference, another horrible interception thrown by QB Ryan Lindley at the goal line that cost them a TD and the defense not being mentally alert in allowing Hall to walk into the end zone after he pretended to spike the ball at the two. That's a 14-point swing right there. Toss in some dropped third-down passes and there you go. The UCLA and Idaho losses also swung on just a couple of key plays. Eliminate those and you're playing winning football.
Hoke must think the Aztecs are getting close. We'll see.
The transition to this new stage of development comes at a good time. SDSU travels to Colorado State Saturday, and the Rams have lost four straight games. Then 0-6 New Mexico comes to town. Win those two and the Aztecs are 4-4 and who knows.
It will be tougher than it sounds. The Aztecs haven't won on the road since 2007 and the Rams have beaten Colorado of the Big 12, have an experienced offensive line and a wide receiver with the ability to destroy a weak SDSU secondary. New Mexico will be a blood bath perfectly suited for Halloween as both teams get hyped over the presence of Aztecs defensive coordinator Rocky Long, the former Lobos head coach. If they still hold bowl hopes, they better win the two games because TCU is up next and Utah isn't too far down the road.
Hoke might think the Aztecs are ready for the next step. The only question is when the team is able to take it.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Charger Fans Wrath Needs to Aim Higher
Aim the wrath higher. Not Norv. AJ. Or, higher still, Dean.
Listening to the radio a day after the Chargers latest debacle, this one a 34-23 Monday Night Football home loss to the undefeated Broncos, makes it seem like 80 percent of fans believe the Bolts are in deep doo-doo, and the other 20 see a team with only three losses so why not go out and win the other 10 games. Of that pessimistic four-fifths, perhaps 90 percent want head coach Norv Turner to be fired.
That just shows a misunderstanding of how the Chargers leadership functions. After Turner's predecessor, Marty Schottenheimer, was fired, the brass hired Turner to be part of a more cohesive, integrated decision-making team. You remember that press conference. There would be no more separation between what the front office wanted and what the coaching staff desired.
The skeptical saw it as Turner being hired to be General Manager AJ Smith's lap dog, a coach with a losing career record who would wag without question as his boss' yes-man.
No matter which situation is true, Turner does not have quite the same portfolio as a typical NFL head coach, who wields the true power in most franchises. So if we want to start throwing blame around, we have to move up the ladder, to Smith or to Dean Spanos, the team president.
I assign blame to Smith, myself, for ignoring the line of scrimmage. Yeah, you know. It's been my rant for years that he gets his offensive linemen off the scrap heap and expects them to perform as well as the others, and it never works. There's no question now that I've been right about this all along. Smith, remember, nearly let the Chargers' only quality offensive lineman, Kris Dielman, get away as a free agent a couple years ago before cooler heads prevailed. Speaking of blockers, where's Lorenzo Neal? Oh, yeah, not here.
The bottom line is if you get rid of Norv Turner, you're just going to get a replacement who will be a less-than-one-third part of a triumvirate. Much-more-than-one-third Smith will still rule the roost, so who knows if LT will have anyone who can pave a path through a line of scrimmage or if there will be anyone on defense to tie up an opposing lineman.
This is no call to fire Smith or anyone else. It is a desire to put some realism back into the debate, so people can understand the ramifications, or lack thereof, for the moves they advocate.
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If anything, this slow start will hopefully get Smith off his butt to acquire some decent linemen on both sides of the ball via free agency and maybe to draft a trench player before the third round.
By the way, call me a pessimist. Unlike the slow starts of previous years, I don't see much chance to improve during the course of the season. The losses of NT Jamal Williams and C Nick Hardwick are proving to be potentially fatal for playoff hopes.
Listening to the radio a day after the Chargers latest debacle, this one a 34-23 Monday Night Football home loss to the undefeated Broncos, makes it seem like 80 percent of fans believe the Bolts are in deep doo-doo, and the other 20 see a team with only three losses so why not go out and win the other 10 games. Of that pessimistic four-fifths, perhaps 90 percent want head coach Norv Turner to be fired.
That just shows a misunderstanding of how the Chargers leadership functions. After Turner's predecessor, Marty Schottenheimer, was fired, the brass hired Turner to be part of a more cohesive, integrated decision-making team. You remember that press conference. There would be no more separation between what the front office wanted and what the coaching staff desired.
The skeptical saw it as Turner being hired to be General Manager AJ Smith's lap dog, a coach with a losing career record who would wag without question as his boss' yes-man.
No matter which situation is true, Turner does not have quite the same portfolio as a typical NFL head coach, who wields the true power in most franchises. So if we want to start throwing blame around, we have to move up the ladder, to Smith or to Dean Spanos, the team president.
I assign blame to Smith, myself, for ignoring the line of scrimmage. Yeah, you know. It's been my rant for years that he gets his offensive linemen off the scrap heap and expects them to perform as well as the others, and it never works. There's no question now that I've been right about this all along. Smith, remember, nearly let the Chargers' only quality offensive lineman, Kris Dielman, get away as a free agent a couple years ago before cooler heads prevailed. Speaking of blockers, where's Lorenzo Neal? Oh, yeah, not here.
The bottom line is if you get rid of Norv Turner, you're just going to get a replacement who will be a less-than-one-third part of a triumvirate. Much-more-than-one-third Smith will still rule the roost, so who knows if LT will have anyone who can pave a path through a line of scrimmage or if there will be anyone on defense to tie up an opposing lineman.
This is no call to fire Smith or anyone else. It is a desire to put some realism back into the debate, so people can understand the ramifications, or lack thereof, for the moves they advocate.
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If anything, this slow start will hopefully get Smith off his butt to acquire some decent linemen on both sides of the ball via free agency and maybe to draft a trench player before the third round.
By the way, call me a pessimist. Unlike the slow starts of previous years, I don't see much chance to improve during the course of the season. The losses of NT Jamal Williams and C Nick Hardwick are proving to be potentially fatal for playoff hopes.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Harbaugh Makes Good, Chargers
My experience with Jim Harbaugh is a somewhat humorous warning about how to handle professional relationships, because you never know how the future will unfold.
Harbaugh was named head coach of the USD football team after the 2003 rather shameful firing of predecessor Kevin McGarry -- the way they did it, though they were well within their rights to do it -- and the school held a lavish news conference to announce the appointment. The hiring brought immediate excitement and attention to a school with a non-scholarship program, so there were far more media in attendance than USD football normally attracted.
At the time, I was well into my fourth year of operating Sandiegosportstown.com and one of the niches I had developed was thorough coverage of Toreros sports.
Therefore, I waited until the end of the news conference and past the informal part where television news crews did their one-on-ones, then I stepped forward and introduced myself. I told him who I was, about my Web site and then injected a slight dose of reality: when all the excitement died down, I'd be practically the only media person he'd be dealing with on a regular basis. It would be me and a freelance writer who sent game stories to the San Diego Union-Tribune. I was the man as far as he would be concerned -- or so I thought.
I got my own reality check in early 2004 as my personal and professional responsibilities continued to grow in relationship to the financial status of the Web site and I realized unless things changed soon, I was going to have to make some hard decisions. USD held spring practice several months later and I, the man as far as Harbaugh was concerned, made it out their ONCE to interview Harbaugh. I was never one to make a big deal out of spring football practice, but I would have tried to get out there more than ONCE to both USD and San Diego State.
As spring wound down, a particular measure I used to decide whether to continue Sandiegosportstown.com failed miserably and I decided to close up shop. Harbaugh never saw me again, and I never saw him. I was the man alright. Yup. That'll teach you to open your mouth wide.
Harbaugh, of course, went on to fabulous success with USD, fueled mostly by bringing in Josh Johnson to play quarterback. I went on to spend more time doing what was actually putting food in my children's mouths, which was covering the local courts. Harbaugh's DUI fell into my bailiwick, and I wrote a couple stories about the case. As a misdemeanor, he was never required to actually appear in court and he didn't. I still never saw him. Amazing.
Jim Harbaugh is now, as you no doubt know, the third-year head coach at Stanford and this time has hitched his horse to running back Toby Gerhart, who has received some Heisman talk. He has improved the Cardinal each season, has brought in a terrific freshman QB in Andrew Luck and a solid offensive line. Stanford is now 4-2 and has a strong shot at its first bowl since 2001. He is also lining up a second-straight highly regarded recruiting class. The man can coach, no doubt about it. I'd have enjoyed actually spending some time with him.
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This blog remains an island of tranquility in the sea of despair over the Chargers bad loss at Pittsburgh a week ago. No doubt that the Broncos 5-0 start, including Sunday's overtime win against New England, has thrown a monkey wrench into preseason prognostications, but Denver has a tougher row to hoe over the next few weeks. We'll know by the end of the month whether we need to panic.
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Scripps Ranch's Tate Forcier came out of Michigan's loss at Iowa not because of ineffective play but because of a concussion. The freshman quarterback had his first dose of reality last Saturday, but there's no question that he's had a great start to his college career. Coach Rich Rodriguez said Forcier will play this week if healthy, but since the opponent is only Delaware State (the Big Ten sucks, by the way), here's to hoping he gets a couple weeks off to recover. It's bigger than football, ya' know?
Harbaugh was named head coach of the USD football team after the 2003 rather shameful firing of predecessor Kevin McGarry -- the way they did it, though they were well within their rights to do it -- and the school held a lavish news conference to announce the appointment. The hiring brought immediate excitement and attention to a school with a non-scholarship program, so there were far more media in attendance than USD football normally attracted.
At the time, I was well into my fourth year of operating Sandiegosportstown.com and one of the niches I had developed was thorough coverage of Toreros sports.
Therefore, I waited until the end of the news conference and past the informal part where television news crews did their one-on-ones, then I stepped forward and introduced myself. I told him who I was, about my Web site and then injected a slight dose of reality: when all the excitement died down, I'd be practically the only media person he'd be dealing with on a regular basis. It would be me and a freelance writer who sent game stories to the San Diego Union-Tribune. I was the man as far as he would be concerned -- or so I thought.
I got my own reality check in early 2004 as my personal and professional responsibilities continued to grow in relationship to the financial status of the Web site and I realized unless things changed soon, I was going to have to make some hard decisions. USD held spring practice several months later and I, the man as far as Harbaugh was concerned, made it out their ONCE to interview Harbaugh. I was never one to make a big deal out of spring football practice, but I would have tried to get out there more than ONCE to both USD and San Diego State.
As spring wound down, a particular measure I used to decide whether to continue Sandiegosportstown.com failed miserably and I decided to close up shop. Harbaugh never saw me again, and I never saw him. I was the man alright. Yup. That'll teach you to open your mouth wide.
Harbaugh, of course, went on to fabulous success with USD, fueled mostly by bringing in Josh Johnson to play quarterback. I went on to spend more time doing what was actually putting food in my children's mouths, which was covering the local courts. Harbaugh's DUI fell into my bailiwick, and I wrote a couple stories about the case. As a misdemeanor, he was never required to actually appear in court and he didn't. I still never saw him. Amazing.
Jim Harbaugh is now, as you no doubt know, the third-year head coach at Stanford and this time has hitched his horse to running back Toby Gerhart, who has received some Heisman talk. He has improved the Cardinal each season, has brought in a terrific freshman QB in Andrew Luck and a solid offensive line. Stanford is now 4-2 and has a strong shot at its first bowl since 2001. He is also lining up a second-straight highly regarded recruiting class. The man can coach, no doubt about it. I'd have enjoyed actually spending some time with him.
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This blog remains an island of tranquility in the sea of despair over the Chargers bad loss at Pittsburgh a week ago. No doubt that the Broncos 5-0 start, including Sunday's overtime win against New England, has thrown a monkey wrench into preseason prognostications, but Denver has a tougher row to hoe over the next few weeks. We'll know by the end of the month whether we need to panic.
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Scripps Ranch's Tate Forcier came out of Michigan's loss at Iowa not because of ineffective play but because of a concussion. The freshman quarterback had his first dose of reality last Saturday, but there's no question that he's had a great start to his college career. Coach Rich Rodriguez said Forcier will play this week if healthy, but since the opponent is only Delaware State (the Big Ten sucks, by the way), here's to hoping he gets a couple weeks off to recover. It's bigger than football, ya' know?
Monday, October 05, 2009
Chargers Remain on Track
I don't have too much to say about the Chargers 38-28 loss at Pittsburgh Sunday night, partly because "I told you so" is a little gauche. However, the 2-2 record is exactly what I expected heading into the well-timed bye week, with the Bolts having beaten and lost in the games I figured would go those directions.
When you recall that I predicted 10-6 and a playoff berth, that means things are still okay in Chargerland, but of course could be much better.
In losing to the Ravens and Steelers, they fell to two of the best teams in the NFL. Forget Pittsburgh's 1-2 start, it's hard to keep the edge coming off a Super Bowl year. The talent remains on board.
So, no big worries, other than what we already knew: the offensive and defensive lines are sub-standard and that was before the middle of each unit, Nick Hardwick and Jamal Williams, went down. That exacerbates the imperfections elsewhere, like LT's injury and inconsistent play by the back seven on defense.
Put all that together and the Bolts, thanks to Philip Rivers and Darren Sproles and Quentin Jammer and others are still good enough to beat most teams in the NFL and they will. They will split with Denver, sweep Oakland and Kansas City and go to the playoffs before exiting early (I'll come clean. I thought they'd split with KC and sweep Oakland and Denver, but that was before the games were played and we see which way those opponents are headed).
The national media likes to talk about this season being the Chargers last chance to make the Super Bowl. It might be the last shot for Williams, but the rest of the team will be together for years to come. My belief is that Super Bowl hopes were unrealistic because of the lack of quality at the line of scrimmage. AJ Smith will finally have to pay attention to the trenches for the real opportunity to arrive.
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Since the Dodgers are the team to beat in the NL West after two straight titles (gag me), let's compare the Padres to them position by position. My preferences are in bold.
1B: Adrian Gonzalez vs James Loney.
No contest.
2B: David Eckstein vs Orlando Hudson.
Close call, but Hudson's better numbers make a difference over a whole season.
SS: Everth Cabrera vs Rafael Furcal.
Furcal today, but no question Cabrera is the choice of tomorrow.
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff or Chase Headley vs Casey Blake
Blake gets the nod for consistency this season, but Kouz gets Gold Glove if he's not playing in baseball purgatory.
LF: Kyle Blanks or Headley vs Manny Ramirez
I think Blanks will be a fine player some day. Really.
CF: Tony Gwynn vs Matt Kemp or Juan Pierre
Assuming Blanks blossoms in first full season, this is widest gap between clubs.
RF: Will Venable vs Andre Ethier
I think Venable has potential, Ethier deserves some MVP votes.
C: Nick Hundley vs Russell Martin
No one sees Hundley being more than serviceable, Martin is an annual All-Star.
Just among the eight positions in the field, the Padres take only two spots and in some areas, especially the outfield, the gaps are extreme.
I don't see the Dodgers as having a great starting pitching rotation, but the Padres have problems after Mat Latos, who is again just a kid full of potential. Who knows if battered Chris Young will ever amount to anything again? As nice as it was to watch Kevin Correia this season, he was only passable at 12-11, 3.91. Clayton Richard had a nice won-loss record but his ERA was 4 and a half and he walked too many people. Will we see Wade LeBlanc of September or the skittish pitcher of earlier in the season? In other words, the Dodgers at least know who they're sending out to the mound every day and more or less what they'll get. I also think LA has a better bullpen.
Again, I'm high on the kids and think the building blocks are in place. But there's a long way to go before anyone still employed at Petco Park speaks of contending.
When you recall that I predicted 10-6 and a playoff berth, that means things are still okay in Chargerland, but of course could be much better.
In losing to the Ravens and Steelers, they fell to two of the best teams in the NFL. Forget Pittsburgh's 1-2 start, it's hard to keep the edge coming off a Super Bowl year. The talent remains on board.
So, no big worries, other than what we already knew: the offensive and defensive lines are sub-standard and that was before the middle of each unit, Nick Hardwick and Jamal Williams, went down. That exacerbates the imperfections elsewhere, like LT's injury and inconsistent play by the back seven on defense.
Put all that together and the Bolts, thanks to Philip Rivers and Darren Sproles and Quentin Jammer and others are still good enough to beat most teams in the NFL and they will. They will split with Denver, sweep Oakland and Kansas City and go to the playoffs before exiting early (I'll come clean. I thought they'd split with KC and sweep Oakland and Denver, but that was before the games were played and we see which way those opponents are headed).
The national media likes to talk about this season being the Chargers last chance to make the Super Bowl. It might be the last shot for Williams, but the rest of the team will be together for years to come. My belief is that Super Bowl hopes were unrealistic because of the lack of quality at the line of scrimmage. AJ Smith will finally have to pay attention to the trenches for the real opportunity to arrive.
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Since the Dodgers are the team to beat in the NL West after two straight titles (gag me), let's compare the Padres to them position by position. My preferences are in bold.
1B: Adrian Gonzalez vs James Loney.
No contest.
2B: David Eckstein vs Orlando Hudson.
Close call, but Hudson's better numbers make a difference over a whole season.
SS: Everth Cabrera vs Rafael Furcal.
Furcal today, but no question Cabrera is the choice of tomorrow.
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff or Chase Headley vs Casey Blake
Blake gets the nod for consistency this season, but Kouz gets Gold Glove if he's not playing in baseball purgatory.
LF: Kyle Blanks or Headley vs Manny Ramirez
I think Blanks will be a fine player some day. Really.
CF: Tony Gwynn vs Matt Kemp or Juan Pierre
Assuming Blanks blossoms in first full season, this is widest gap between clubs.
RF: Will Venable vs Andre Ethier
I think Venable has potential, Ethier deserves some MVP votes.
C: Nick Hundley vs Russell Martin
No one sees Hundley being more than serviceable, Martin is an annual All-Star.
Just among the eight positions in the field, the Padres take only two spots and in some areas, especially the outfield, the gaps are extreme.
I don't see the Dodgers as having a great starting pitching rotation, but the Padres have problems after Mat Latos, who is again just a kid full of potential. Who knows if battered Chris Young will ever amount to anything again? As nice as it was to watch Kevin Correia this season, he was only passable at 12-11, 3.91. Clayton Richard had a nice won-loss record but his ERA was 4 and a half and he walked too many people. Will we see Wade LeBlanc of September or the skittish pitcher of earlier in the season? In other words, the Dodgers at least know who they're sending out to the mound every day and more or less what they'll get. I also think LA has a better bullpen.
Again, I'm high on the kids and think the building blocks are in place. But there's a long way to go before anyone still employed at Petco Park speaks of contending.
Saturday, October 03, 2009
Padres Fire Towers
Kevin Towers outlasted that "new sheriff in town," Kevin Malone, by quite a few years, so that makes him alright in my book.
With Towers being let go by the new Padres ownership regime of Jeff Moorad, there will be a lot of post-mortems on his tenure, in which he outlasted not just the way-too-outspoken Malone of the Dodgers but every other GM and became the longest lasting in his position in franchise history.
I've always thought Towers was a mixed bag. For some reason, fans and talking heads take a straight love him or hate him approach, but that's never been my take. This is a guy who wrested Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young from Texas for peanuts and picked up Phil Nevin from the Angels for a song, but also the one who sent away a popular legitimate starting pitcher for a washed up outfielder, and who sent away promising young sluggers Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. He had a great eye for pitching talent but not so much for position players. He also had to be saved from himself a couple of times -- some of his best trades were the ones he was unable to make.
I am also on record as being strongly opposed to this year's Jake Peavy deal and I think nearly a half-season of watching the average hurlers gained in return are bearing out my view, but I do not blame Towers for that one.
That, in fact, is another side of the story. I don't think Towers has had real GM-type power in the Padres front office for years now, dating back to when Sandy Alderson came to town. Moorad and Tom Garfinkel have all the power with the Padres now. I'm not suggesting the position be similar in scope to that of AJ Smith, who wields enormous clout with the Chargers, but he ultimately has to be able to make his own decisions, and I don't think he was able to the past few seasons. That being the case, its best the new ownership picks their own guy and gives him a portfolio, however large or small.
Towers will land on his own two feet, that's for sure. I have a sneaking suspicion that he won't immediately take a new GM job because he is perfect for another role in 2010. He's a glib, quotable man not afraid to share his opinion. I think he would be a great television studio commentator. You read it here first.
---
Based on the location of my current digs, it was very cool to go to Petco Park Friday night and see two former Grossmont High School hurlers: the Padres' Kevin Correia and the Giants' Barry Zito -- who later transferred to the old Uni -- do battle on the mound.
The results are why I don't buy Towers assessment that the Padres in their current form are ready to be a contender. The Friars lineup made Zito look like Steve Carlton. I know that they didn't have mainstays Kevin Kouzmanoff and Kyle Blanks, but come on. Just a single in several situations might have done the trick. The lineup has too many guys around .260 with just a few home runs to be anywhere near imposing next year.
Meanwhile, Correia was nearly flawless the first time through the order but thereafter fooled no one. Even the outs were rockets. He's had a fine season but is currently the best bet for opening day starter in 2010. That will lead a rickety rotation that will scare no one.
Again, the building blocks are in place now, but more construction is needed during the off-season if the Padres hope to compete for a division title.
---
Night update: SDSU very unimpressive in 34-17 win over New Mexico State Saturday night. It was tied at 17 early in the fourth quarter before the home team pulled away.
At one point in the second half, Ryan Lindley was 6-22 passing and, unlike last week when the turnovers were generally not his fault, he was missing receivers left and right against the Aggies. I now believe head coach Brady Hoke is jeopardizing his team by not giving Drew Westling -- who drove the Aztecs to a TD in his only possession of the season -- more opportunities. I'm not too down on Lindley, a sophomore with a bad offensive line, mediocre receivers and a new offensive system, but there's a point where reality hits, and that was tonight. Besides, I'm a two-QB proponent. I think even though Lindley is ultimately your guy, you have to keep the backup in game shape.
They might have found a running back in Walter Kazee, a whirling dervish unafraid to stick the ball up the middle.
With Towers being let go by the new Padres ownership regime of Jeff Moorad, there will be a lot of post-mortems on his tenure, in which he outlasted not just the way-too-outspoken Malone of the Dodgers but every other GM and became the longest lasting in his position in franchise history.
I've always thought Towers was a mixed bag. For some reason, fans and talking heads take a straight love him or hate him approach, but that's never been my take. This is a guy who wrested Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young from Texas for peanuts and picked up Phil Nevin from the Angels for a song, but also the one who sent away a popular legitimate starting pitcher for a washed up outfielder, and who sent away promising young sluggers Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. He had a great eye for pitching talent but not so much for position players. He also had to be saved from himself a couple of times -- some of his best trades were the ones he was unable to make.
I am also on record as being strongly opposed to this year's Jake Peavy deal and I think nearly a half-season of watching the average hurlers gained in return are bearing out my view, but I do not blame Towers for that one.
That, in fact, is another side of the story. I don't think Towers has had real GM-type power in the Padres front office for years now, dating back to when Sandy Alderson came to town. Moorad and Tom Garfinkel have all the power with the Padres now. I'm not suggesting the position be similar in scope to that of AJ Smith, who wields enormous clout with the Chargers, but he ultimately has to be able to make his own decisions, and I don't think he was able to the past few seasons. That being the case, its best the new ownership picks their own guy and gives him a portfolio, however large or small.
Towers will land on his own two feet, that's for sure. I have a sneaking suspicion that he won't immediately take a new GM job because he is perfect for another role in 2010. He's a glib, quotable man not afraid to share his opinion. I think he would be a great television studio commentator. You read it here first.
---
Based on the location of my current digs, it was very cool to go to Petco Park Friday night and see two former Grossmont High School hurlers: the Padres' Kevin Correia and the Giants' Barry Zito -- who later transferred to the old Uni -- do battle on the mound.
The results are why I don't buy Towers assessment that the Padres in their current form are ready to be a contender. The Friars lineup made Zito look like Steve Carlton. I know that they didn't have mainstays Kevin Kouzmanoff and Kyle Blanks, but come on. Just a single in several situations might have done the trick. The lineup has too many guys around .260 with just a few home runs to be anywhere near imposing next year.
Meanwhile, Correia was nearly flawless the first time through the order but thereafter fooled no one. Even the outs were rockets. He's had a fine season but is currently the best bet for opening day starter in 2010. That will lead a rickety rotation that will scare no one.
Again, the building blocks are in place now, but more construction is needed during the off-season if the Padres hope to compete for a division title.
---
Night update: SDSU very unimpressive in 34-17 win over New Mexico State Saturday night. It was tied at 17 early in the fourth quarter before the home team pulled away.
At one point in the second half, Ryan Lindley was 6-22 passing and, unlike last week when the turnovers were generally not his fault, he was missing receivers left and right against the Aggies. I now believe head coach Brady Hoke is jeopardizing his team by not giving Drew Westling -- who drove the Aztecs to a TD in his only possession of the season -- more opportunities. I'm not too down on Lindley, a sophomore with a bad offensive line, mediocre receivers and a new offensive system, but there's a point where reality hits, and that was tonight. Besides, I'm a two-QB proponent. I think even though Lindley is ultimately your guy, you have to keep the backup in game shape.
They might have found a running back in Walter Kazee, a whirling dervish unafraid to stick the ball up the middle.
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