Friday, March 28, 2008

Padres - Outfield, Rotation Rear Still Problematic

Here's how you rate the Padres off-season: when play ended in 2007, the Friars problems were the outfield and the back end of the pitching rotation, and as the games of 2008 are about to begin, the troubles are still the outfield and the last couple starting hurlers.

That's not progress.

GM Kevin Towers and manager Bud Black are confident enough in their outfielders that they sent the organization's top prospect, Chase Headley, to Portland for a month or two of AAA at-bats and fly ball fielding chances and placed CF Jim Edmonds on the 15-day disabled list -- even though he's healthy enough to be back performing in minor league games.

To some extent, I buy into their theory that it would be a setback for Headley if they were to start him in left field now and struggle either at the plate or the field. Remember, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff had some big league experience to use to fight off last year's early slump. Headley does not. Better to recall him as the rescuer in May or June.

But I also get the feeling, since they'd need to send someone else down and risk that unfortunate player to waivers, that Towers and Black are maybe playing it too safe. It seems like they don't know whom to cut. Jody Gerut? Paul McAnulty? Callix Crabbe? They're cut from the same mold, guys trying to hang onto jobs in The Show instead of budding stars capable of leading teams to a championship.

Which brings me to my next point. How many times have we as San Diego State fans been guilty of praising some athlete who manages to stretch his capabilities to accomplish something that should be normal? Isn't it great how that defensive lineman is hanging in there despite being outweighed by 50 pounds? Or how the 6-5 forward is grabbing a couple of rebounds amongst the trees? Well, at the same time they're impressing us, they're getting their butts kicked.

It's nice that Gerut, McAnulty, Crabbe and Scott Hairston are having good springs. But when the season begins on Monday, they're going to be exposed as the marginal players that they are and will get whipped. I'm tempted to throw a past-his-prime Brian Giles into this mix, too. Isn't it great that he's recovered from his injuries and feeling good again? Sure. Let's see how he performs when the lights go on.

Regarding pitching, I'm more than comfortable with Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Duh. Greg Maddux is in such good physical condition, his arm feels so good, and his mechanics are so correct that he might have three effective seasons left in him if he's used properly. Randy Wolf is a real question mark at the four spot. He hasn't tossed 200 innings since 2003 or had an ERA under 4.23 since 2002. In the fifth spot, Justin Germano was lights out for five starts last season. Then hitters figured him out. He's adjusted with an improved change up -- love it! -- but whether he can fool hitters for 25 starts is unlikely. Mark Prior could be a huge asset in the second half of the season, or be worthless. You just don't know.

-- The bullpen should be strong again, although Black will have to be wary of the approaching time that he'll need to swap roles between Trevor Hoffman and Heath Bell.

-- At 1B, I was glad to read that Adrian Gonzalez was as disappointed in his 2007 as I was. Some of his numbers were great, but he can and should be even better. Certainly more consistent hitting with a higher average and fewer strikeouts.

-- 2B perhaps brings potential for the greatest improvement on the team with Tad Iguchi taking over for Marcus Giles. Will be a better fielder and have a good bat in the #2 slot in the batting order.

-- SS Khalil Greene got tons of kudos for his offensive fireworks the last two months of 2007, but hitting that way throughout an entire season would be nice. His approach at the plate can be just awful sometimes. Going into his fifth season as a fulltimer, he could be on the verge of a breakout year. He'll need to cut his 128 strikeouts by 1/4 for that to happen.

-- 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff is into his second season, and sophomore slumps happen. His rookie year was a wonderful thing to watch. Good hitting is all about adjustments, and he made them. He'll need more adjustments this season as pitchers find new holes in his swing. It'll be interesting to see if the youngster can keep pace with his competition.

-- At C, neither Michael Barrett nor Josh Bard offer any excitement, but if the infielders perform up to expectations, then nothing more than solid receivership will be needed here. Any offensive contributions will be a major plus.

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Pitching will keep the Padres around .500. How much over .500 the Friars finish will depend on how the hitters perform. If someone comes through in the OF, if Kouzmanoff avoids the jinx and Greene becomes a full-fledged star, the Padres could challenge again for the National League West title. If not, then well, you know.

The order of things in the division entering the season seems clear, with Arizona and Colorado the cream of the crop, followed by San Diego and Los Angeles, and San Francisco bringing up the rear. What will happen, I think, is the Diamondbacks will win 100 games and run away with it. They go three deep with superstars in the rotation, too, and are solid through their batting order. The Padres and Rockies will battle for 90 wins. The Dodgers, I just don't like their mix. They'll finish over .500 and will overtake the Friars if things don't go well here, but I don't see them as being better than the top dogs. The Giants, uh, yeah. I think I wrote sometime over the winter that the Padres threatened to start a AAA outfield this year, which is coming true. The Giants might have a AA outfield. They will take a lot of low-scoring games into the seventh inning thanks to a nice rotation, but will then lose most of those contests.

Friday, March 21, 2008

USD Beats UConn in NCAA Tournament

Viva, Viva, Viva U-S-D!!!

The only thing to say is this is why I get on Gyno Pomare's case for being inconsistent. Look how good he is. Western Kentucky, whom the Toreros play on Sunday morning, is good. But the Toreros have an excellent chance at the Sweet 16.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Thanks to Coach Fisher But Your Time is Done

Steve Fisher has performed a miracle on Montezuma Mesa in resurrecting San Diego State's once moribund men's basketball program, but this just-ended season demonstrated that his work here is now done. It's time to move on.

I in no way advocate Fisher's firing, especially after an unprecedented third straight 20-win season and post-season appearance, because that would be a terrible injustice to a man who has given us so much. Where he needs to go is upstairs, and there's a chance that the athletic director job will come open. Current AD Jeff Schemmel, who is unpopular here despite doing a pretty good job, is one of the leaders for a similar job at Kansas State of the Big 12. Things have been strangely silent on the AD job in Manhattan, Kan. for several weeks now. They could just be giving Schemmel a courtesy couple of weeks because it would be uncouth for him to announce his departure as the Aztecs prepared for conference tournaments and the NIT for the men. Still, he's got K-State background, so he's a good fit. Couldn't blame him if he goes.

Fisher would be perfect to succeed him. He's a strong administrator, a quiet visionary and works well with his coaching colleagues. He understands San Diego State, the challenges faced by its team and the desperate desire by fans for a high-level team in any sport. His record also shows that he has high standards, which are desperately needed on the Mesa.

The season just ended was a disappointment overall. The Aztecs lost four games they should have won and closed the slate with an embarrassing NIT rout at the hands of Florida. I had no problem with a flu-ridden squad falling in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament to a decent BYU team. The Aztecs, however, looked just horrible against the Gators, who are nothing compared to their last two NCAA championship teams. The were in disarray on offense, ineffective on defense and a non-factor on the boards. SDSU right now is so far from being a good team that it's apparent that Fisher has taken the Aztecs as far as he can.

Other problems exist. Fisher has had to suspend or completely remove from the team far too many players. The losses of Kyle Spain and Jerome Habel ruined this season. I have no doubt those young men deserved their punishment, but Fisher is struggling to bring quality people to San Diego. No one on the current team can shoot worth a darn. The guard play has been inconsistent at best and downright horrible against good teams. He's had trouble recruiting big men, but as a mid-major team, that's no big surprise. Much worse, his staff of assistants has been a revolving door, maybe the biggest reason for the program's inconsistency.

Don't call me a pessimist. I'm not. The future is bright for SDSU men's basketball. The nucleus of this team is young, and some good recruits are coming next season in G Quinton Watkins and French JC transfer F Mehdi Cheriet. Plus, injured freshman F Tim Shelton will return. This 20-win team will get better. How much better is the question, and under Fisher, I now severely doubt it will get much better.

There've been some Aztec fans who've wanted Fisher booted for years now. I'm only begrudgingly edging toward their point of view. My response to those people has always been, if not Fisher, then who? What better coach is going to come to a school like ours with no hoops tradition? The answer was no one.

This time I come with a name. Randy Bennett of Saint Mary's, who led the Gaels to the NCAA Tournament this season as the nearly unprecedented second at-large bid from the West Coast Conference, behind WCC Tournament champion USD and perennial power Gonzaga. It's the Gaels second NCAA appearance in four years, from a program that won something like two games before Bennett took over. And he has San Diego connections from USD.

Bennett is a quality coach, a builder, a winner. He would make a sensible replacement.

Would I be angry if Fisher were to remain as coach? No. Though I see no reason why things next year will be any different than this season. Plus, Fisher might well see this as time to depart on his own. He has to be disappointed, as we all are, on how this season tailed-off after Spain was suspended. It's the second straight season in which the Aztecs faded down the stretch. He might have had enough. If so, he's been a wonderful coach and has laid a very solid foundation for whoever might follow.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Local Schools Put San Diego in College Hoops Spotlight

USD men's basketball? Check!
USD women? Check!

UC San Diego men's basketball? Check!
UCSD women? Check!

Point Loma Nazarene women's basketball? Check!

The Toreros, Tritons and Sea Lions all won their conference tournaments and are now headed to the national basketball tourneys for their levels -- USD in Division 1, UCSD in Division 2, and PLNU in the NAIA.

Still to come? How about the San Diego State men to join the Toreros in the Big Dance? Could happen. Their road through the Mountain West Conference playoffs looks well set-up for them. If they can somehow ride the wave, then the city of San Diego will have six teams in March Madness. That's quite good for a place not known as America's Finest Hoops City.

Watching USD's amazingly convincing victory over Gonzaga to win the WCC title Monday night, I couldn't help but think that the Toreros not only gave the Aztecs extra incentive, but a road map toward success. They beat the Bulldogs and came back to topple Saint Mary's in the semifinal using two things that SDSU coach Steve Fisher has been stressing this year: defense and grabbing what he calls "50-50" balls. The USD defense held the Gaels to 16 second-half points in the semis and the Zags couldn't buy a short jump shot in the last 10 minutes of the final. Hands were up in the air at all times that Gonzaga possessed the ball. The television commentators noted how the Toreros seemed to get every loose ball.

The question now is, can a San Diego State men's team coming off a slightly disappointing regular season win three games in three days? I think so. They opened the season by winning three games in a row in Fresno and got better each game. They can be dangerous when getting into a rhythm.

Can they extend themselves physically and emotionally? Yes, though I've only seen it a couple times this year: the first 10 minutes at Cal, the first half at home vs Wyoming and the second half on the road at New Mexico. Perhaps the final five minutes at home vs BYU. That's four times in 30 games, so maybe the better question than "can they?" is "will they?"

We find out Thursday afternoon with the opening conference tournament game vs Air Force.

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If no one else steps up in defense of CIF-San Diego Section Commissioner Dennis Ackerman, I will. He has one of the most difficult jobs anyone can possibly have in sports. He's like the NBA commissioner but without the huge salary. Add in about 5,000 parents who all think they could run high school sports competition better than he does, and you understand the position he's in.

In the latest controversy, three of the county's best basketball players mysteriously left off All-Star Game rosters after overcoming eligibility questions earlier in the season, Ackerman had the final say over whom was selected.

Ackerman might have been wrong in this instance. The two boys players in question have since been added onto the roster. He's been wrong before. He's been right most of the time, though, and high school sports around here have flourished since he became commissioner.

So correct the mistake, but cut the man some slack.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Grier Gets it Done for Toreros; Padres and Edmonds

As this college basketball season was about to start, I mentioned my fondness for Brad Holland and my sadness that the University of San Diego had let him go as head basketball coach. However, I also stated that the overall situation at Alcala Park had come to an end, that the Toreros had ceased to become a viable entertainment option in a city where there's a lot to do.

With that as background, where USD sits near the end of its first season under former Gonzaga assistant Bill Grier is remarkable. The Toreros finished third in the West Coast Conference and beat Saint Mary's at home and embarrassed Kentucky at Rupp Arena. While there's almost no way they'll beat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament championship game if they happen to get past the Gaels in the semis, a solid performance could be a steppingstone to the NIT, a tourney that has historically shut them out.

And to think that Grier has accomplished this with essentially two quality players, freshman F Rob Jones and junior G Brandon Johnson. Junior F Gyno Pomare has been wildly inconsistent, and his selection as first team All-WCC is a testament to what he was capable of and the overall weakness of the league, which stinks (and Sunday night's performance is what drives me crazy about him, you can see how good he can be in big situations). Freshman G Trumaine Johnson has developed in the second half of the season, and sophomore G De'Jon Jackson has come up big recently.

While over-shadowed by San Diego State, it's arguable that the Toreros have had a more successful season than the Aztecs. SDSU came in fourth in what was a slightly down year in the Mountain West Conference, failed to beat Saint Mary's on a neutral floor and dismissed or suspended key players under mysterious circumstances. While SDSU has, as usual in athletics, failed to meet expectations, USD has greatly exceeded them.

If this season is an indication of things to come under Grier, then the program is in good hands.

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Steve Fisher's Aztecs have a chance to redeem themselves in the MWC Tournament in Las Vegas. A real chance, since the seedings set up nicely for them. They first play Air Force on Thursday at 2:30 p.m. and while the Falcons just beat SDSU in Colorado Springs, if the Aztecs had just hit just a couple more shots or free throws, the outcome would have been different. A semifinal match then looms with top-seed BYU, a team that SDSU should have swept in the regular season and can't match the Aztecs' athleticism. That gets them to the title game, probably against host UNLV or New Mexico.

Just get to Saturday and take your best shot, you never know.

And let's stop crying about UNLV's home floor advantage. Vegas is where everyone wants to go.

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While I certainly have no ill-will for Padres CF Jim Edmonds, his leg injury is a blessing in disguise. If you hear someone mention that his signing was a good one, it'll be the first time. Heck, I'd take him as a role player. Regular center fielder, no way.

His loss to injury will open up the position for more realistic options and probably forces the brass to install Chase Headley as the starter in left. That's good. You do that while still getting looks at Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut, who hit 22 homers for Cleveland in 2003. Plus intriguing youngsters Will Venable and Callix Crabbe, who is hitting .375 and is showing an ability to draw walks.

General Manager Kevin Towers is also forced to take a fresh look at the trade market.

There's no downside that I've come up with yet for the Padres or fans. Only Edmonds.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Front-running Fans Not Coming to Cox

Win and they will come. No idea is repeated more regarding San Diego sports fans. They'll support a winner, but that's all.

Well, then, will someone please explain to me how Cox Arena last Saturday night was half-empty in the final regular-season home men's basketball game of the year? When the Aztecs are about to finish their most successful three-year stretch in their Division 1 history? When the team is close to completing its third straight 20-win season? When it's becoming apparent that the sky could be the limit for a young nucleus returning next year?

Now the opponent, Colorado State, winless so far in conference play, was no attraction and the home team made short work of the Rams. In a rout with many big plays by the locals, the loudest cheers of the evening were reserved for departing seniors Matt Thomas and Chris Lamb (a junior athletically by graduating in May). Through most of the game, there was no energy in the stands of Cox Arena. You could practically hear a pin drop.

In short, this winner is not being supported. The supposed front-running San Diego sports fans have not appeared in Cox Arena wearing red and black.

So what's wrong? There are a couple reasons within the program why this team has not caught on with fans at-large (as opposed to those few hardcore Aztec supporters). First, coach Steve Fisher's bunch blew three chances to beat non-conference opponents that would have given them credibility. All three games were winnable. The loss of Kyle Spain to suspension took away a solid team leader, and his absence was notable in three subsequent conference losses. The 8 pm starts forced on them by television prevent fans with jobs or children from attending during the week and whetting appetites for future contests. And the television coverage with the mtn and CSTV does more to hide the program than expose it.

Still and all, SDSU is 19-10 and 9-6 in the strong Mountain West Conference and, with a win at Air Force this upcoming weekend, will finish at or above its predicted fourth-place finish in the league, and all but clinch a berth in the NIT. Of course, a bigger dance card awaits if they can manage to win three straight games in the week that follows.

So there's your winner. San Diego sports fans have not responded and those who have aren't terribly excited.

I have always contended that San Diego sports fans have demanded a quality product, a team that is entertaining and competitive, not just a winner. Consider:

-- the Aztecs football team went just 19-15-2 with one winning season in Marshall Faulk's three years, yet fans turned out in droves and were into the game because the games were fun to watch.

-- the Padres drew some of their largest-ever crowds in the post-1998 World Series years even though the teams weren't terribly competitive.

-- the Padres moved into Petco Park and drew large crowds in its first season as people were curious about the new digs. In subsequent years, attendance declined as the team got better. The Padres won two National League West championships but didn't draw like a division-winner here normally would. The Friars were boring and the division stunk. We fans knew it.

Ultimately, I think area fans are tiring of Fisher's building process and are ready for the final product. They're not too happy that too many of the guys he's recruited haven't cut it academically or socially, often leaving the Aztecs a player short of major success. Think of where this squad would be with Jerome Habel manning the middle. But that's a "what might have been and will never be."

The Aztecs are winning, but they're falling short of having a quality product that will entertain fans. That's why Cox Arena is not as full as it should be.