Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Booing Trevor

I talked to a couple people Wednesday about the supposed booing of Trevor Hoffman when the Padres closer walked off the field the previous night after giving up a pair of home runs to Twins batters. With the TV coverage heading to a commercial, their response was that they didn't actually hear any booing. However, reporters and players at Petco most definitely did notice it.

My reaction is simple. Sure, Hoffman is a San Diego icon and has done much for Padres fans and the community at large over the years. But to say he's off-limits for booing is just off-base.

Major leage baseball is not the game it was back when I was growing up, when you'd pay 5 bucks and it was nice if your team won and a "shame" if you lost, but no big deal. Baseball is a high stakes sport now when you go to Petco Park and pay $27 for the right to sit in right field. When I go downtown and pay $45 to watch a baseball game within the infield, I want to see the Padres score runs, I want to see Jake Peavy shut down the opposition, I want to cheer to "Hell's Bells" and I want to see Hoffman end the contest by making someone look foolish with his changeup. If I don't get what I want, I have a right to boo.

Plus, I think that most of the people who booed Hoffman have cheered him numerous times in the past and really don't suddenly hate the guy. He threw two bad pitches and got rocked. You get rocked, you get booed. Tonight's another night.

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Steve Fisher has finally landed a legitimate big man in Illinois transfer Brian Carlwell. He's listed at 6-11 and 245 pounds, something the Aztecs have lacked in the post almost since Fisher arrived. He has to sit out next season, darn it, but could give SDSU quite a front line when paired up with Billy White and Tim Shelton.

While he was highly regarded coming out of high school, Illinois people seemed to consider him a project and a quick scan of an Illini fan site didn't show any anguish at his departure.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Padres Conumdrum, Football Pre-season Camps

The San Diego Union-Tribune offered an interesting question Tuesday in pointing out that the Padres are, entering tonight's game vs the Twins, are 13 games below .500 and in the bottom half of the National League in nearly every important statistic, but the National League West has been so unexpectedly bad that the Friars are only 8 games out of first place -- a margin that can easily be closed with another decent winning streak.

So, to borrow from the article's headline, are the Padres buyers or sellers? Club President Sandy Alderson said he's taking a wait-and-see approach, meaning nothing dramatic is likely to happen until we get closer to the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.

I think that's probably the right approach, barring some other team calling with a generous offer, say A-Rod in exchange for Cla Meredith. Hey, a guy can dream, right?

While I think I would take Alderson's approach, I think the Padres are going to end up in the seller's camp. The recent series vs the Yankees and Tigers, in which they were 1-5, showed they're just not close to being ready for prime time. They beat up on the sagging Mets and the struggling Dodgers to make themselves look decent a couple weeks ago, but interleague play has been a reality check.

One question that's been raised lately has been whether to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff, who has not displayed the power expected of him so far at third base. He's batting just .263 with only 33 RBI through nearly half the season and more than two-thirds of his hits have merely been singles. I don't mind a power-hitter who can shorten up the stroke when the situation calls for it, but I want him to be hitting .300 if that's the case. Still, Kouz is only a sophomore as a regular, and I'd hate to see him go. Depends on the offer, you know? Otherwise, the front office planned for a power offense based on Kouz at third and Chase Headley in left and ought to stay on that track.

As I see it, the Padres have two black holes, catcher and second base. The Padres might have the worst catching in the majors. Outfield, an area that I called AAAA quality before the season, might have some promise with Chase Headley, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles having a pretty good season. But Michael Barrett is at .187 and Luke Carlin is hitting at a .172 clip. I sorta like Carlin, but that's not cutting it. When Tadahito Iguchi is ready to return to second base, I'm not going to be too excited. The Friars should keep Edgar Gonzalez and his bat right there next to little bro.

Don't look for someone else to come from the minors. While Matt Antonelli is reportedly coming around some, his batting average is still far under the Mendoza line. The pitchers mentioned in the article? A couple have ERAs over 6 and have allowed far more hits than innings pitched. The problem in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League isn't just hits, its that average fly balls go for home runs. So while ERAs will be inflated while it seems like you're in old-style Coors Field every start, your hits-to-innings pitched ratio should still be reasonable.

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When I was running Sandiegosportstown.com. one of my best photos was of Rancho Bernardo High P Brandon Burke. He came up to me one day with a smile and told me how much he and his family enjoyed the photo. I appreciated the comment, since my photography mostly stunk.

Now Burke's Fresno State Bulldogs are in the finals of the College World Series, and he's a key part of it. I'm rooting for him.

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If the baseball talk is getting you down, Chargers pre-season camp begins July 25. SDSU is supposed to start the first week of August.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

San Diego's Greatest Sports Events

The San Diego Union-Tribune had a list Wednesday of the greatest sports events in San Diego, putting the recently completed U.S. Open golf tournament third.

A pretty good list, I think. I put together a number of such lists when I had Sandiegosportstown.com, but the the lists of greatest sports events I made used some different criteria. I think Bill Center was looking for things more national in scope, where San Diego made an impact on sports fans across the United States. Me, I was looking for local impact. Therefore, my list of the greatest local sports events included two from the high school level: Mt. Carmel's stirring girls basketball Division I final victory over El Camino and the Division IV boys basketball semifinals at Cuyamaca College in which Lincoln downed Christian on a three-pointer at the buzzer and Bishop's upset Horizon on a three-quarter court last-second desperation heave. Both were awesome, but no one outside the county would care.

Using Center's criteria, I think adding the America's Cup as suggested by some readers makes sense, certainly over a horse race and even Super Bowl XXXII. The San Diego State football victory over Florida State is a good pick, but from what I've read of SDSU's past, a 36-0 wipe-out of then small-college #1 North Dakota State before 35,000 at Balboa Stadium came with great drama and served as a springboard to Division I status. The Holiday Bowl game might also be included. I could also see USD's 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament championship victory over Gonzaga being on the list. Or this year's, since it led to an NCAA Tournament win.

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Chase Headley is finally called up by the Padres and in his first game gets two hits in Yankee Stadium. Nice.

Friday, June 13, 2008

College Football Previews Are Coming

Seeing the San Diego State preview on Collegefootballnews.com has me thinking about the possibilities of the upcoming fall season. The CFN analysis is fair and has only a couple minor details wrong that a national media organization would be unlikely to be aware of, anyway.

Their view of SDSU is pretty much in line with my own thinking. Once coach Chuck Long gets his recruits some experience, they have a chance to be pretty good. The only question is how long it will take for them to jell. Most of the predictions put the Aztecs at last, or close to last, in the Mountain West Conference, mainly because the writers know that most of a porous defense returns and they have no idea who the new players on offense are. That's okay. If the defensive line progresses as expected, the stoppers might end up being pretty decent this year. The offense, with new starters across the line, at quarterback and at two receiving spots, is a project. Hopefully, the preview writers will know the names of the offensive players by this time next year.

What worries a lot of fans of the Aztecs is that the offense showed next to nothing this spring. The defense dominated, no question. Me, I'm not so concerned about spring performance. For the offense, anyway, it was all about learning. For the players to discover what it was like to actually participate in a meaningful way. For the coaches to determine which guys were on track for a productive 2008 season.

My worry is about the usual Aztec issue: the hole. Football teams on Montezuma Mesa are usually filled with talent, but there's always an empty space somewhere to let them down. This year, there are two holes likely to slow whatever progress Long and Company have made.

-- Kicker. Steady Garrett Palmer is gone, to be replaced by sophomore transfer Bryan Shields, a hometown boy from Bonita. CFN describes him as having a big leg. What worries me is that a young offensive line is likely to struggle most in the red zone, which will leave Shields a lot of opportunities. Fans could trust Palmer inside the 40. Shields? Don't know. I need accuracy, not a boomer.

-- Cornerback. I have yet to be impressed by Aaron Moore and, while Vonnie Holmes seems to have a nose for the football, it's only on an occasional basis. No question they were hampered by a lack of a pass rush last year, but even if there's no pressure on the opposing QB this year, I'm not so sure those two can hold up their end of the bargain. Behind them are former Oceanside HS standout Jose Perez, who was a tremendous prep athlete only a half-notch below the Reggie Bush-Patrick Gates level, but is completely untested at the college level. Sophomores Romeo Horn and DeyJuan Hemmings are also in the mix, but I've never heard of either being more than warm bodies unless they suddenly develop.

Interestingly, the defense is also where you'll find the strength of the team. The safety combination of senior Corey Boudreaux and sophomore Martrell Fantroy -- who could be an All-MWC player this season -- is as good as there is in the conference. There's very good depth behind them.

You also have quality linebacker Russell Allen and some guys who looked like they had some potential in their first seasons: Luke Laologi, Andrew Preston and Jerry Milling. Passing them all up could be redshirt freshman Miles Burris, who appeared lost at times this spring, but when he was on, he was a beast. Burris is likely getting significant snaps by October, if not sooner.

The one other worry I have is at running back, where there is no star nor anyone who looks to have star potential. I never quite got the hoopla over Brandon Sullivan, who seems to me to make nice depth and is decent at catching the ball out of the backfield. There's too small Atiyyah Henderson again and the back who had a good spring, Devon Brown, who is also small.

Long really has to make a recruiting push at the position and bring in Cathedral Catholic's Tyler Gaffney or, since he's one of only a few top prep senior ball-carriers out west, find a JC nugget. I hope Sullivan or Brown (or both) prove me wrong.

The schedule is favorable in some respects. The non-conference games in September go Cal Poly, at Notre Dame, at San Jose State and Idaho. No one really expects to beat the Fighting Irish in South Bend, but catching them in their opener might give the Aztecs a chance to be competitive. Figuring the other two are all but sure victories, the San Jose State game could be the key to reaching six wins this year. The Spartans aren't very good, but they've been tough at home in recent years and beat the Aztecs up there two years ago. It's a sad state of affairs when you can look at a schedule and not list SJSU as a sure win, but nowadays it's a hump SDSU has to climb over.

If things are going well heading into MWC play, then home games vs Air Force, Colorado State and UNLV should be winnable. Any stumbles, or if there are hopes of reaching seven wins, they'll have to snag wins either at New Mexico, at Wyoming, or at home vs a very good Utah team.

I think 7 wins are possible, 6 wins are realistic, and 5 wins are likely. A five-win season would continue a win-total improvement of a game each season under Long. Six wins would probably not have been enough for a bowl last year but could be in 2008 because there are a couple more post-season games. A lot of things will have to go right, including health and the development of the offensive line, for the Aztecs to finish 7-5.

That said, no matter what you read, Long is not on the hot seat this season. Unless this fall brings a complete disaster, including another loss to Cal Poly, then Long will stick around to see what 2009 brings. This upcoming season is the year his recruits get their feet wet. The next season will be the one in which Long and his staff are judged.

Sunday, June 08, 2008

Winning Streaks by Bad Padres Nothing New

After five straight wins, including a four-game series sweep of the Mets and a league record four consecutive wins by a score of 2-1, a lesson in Padres history is in order.

The Padres once won 14 games in a row. In that glorious streak, they twice swept three-game sets from the Dodgers, took four straight from the Rockies and began the string with a three-game sweep of the Pirates. They won one more in Colorado before the streak ended in a 12-10 slugfest.

Among the interesting things about the streak, Matt Clement and Brian Boehringer each won three games. The first game saw savior-to-never-be Ruben Rivera knock two home runs. Rivera homered and doubled in a win over LA to raise his batting average to .208. The Padres scored 13 runs at the Q vs Colorado when Rockies pitchers issued 10 walks. In another game vs the Rox, Damian Jackson stole five bases. The Padres beat the Dodgers on an RBI single by Jackson in the 12th inning. Trevor Hoffman saved the first five wins and nine of the 14.

Alas, the final victory in the streak merely evened the Padres record at 39-39 and pulled them within 5 games of the first place Giants. The year was 1999, a season removed from the World Series and the beginning of a tailspin that would keep postseason baseball out of America’s Finest City until 2005.

The Padres finished that season 74-88. That number again – 14 – games below .500 in fourth place.

So we have history now that bad Friars teams can put together nice winning streaks. Maybe they’ll continue to improve through 2008 and actually put pressure on the suddenly vulnerable Diamondbacks. As the history lesson demonstrates, maybe not.

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One of the nice stories of the baseball season so far is the rise of Red Sox rookie P Justin Masterson, who played at San Diego State. He’s 2-0 after three starts, has allowed just 11 hits in 18 innings and has struck out 14 batters.

Call him a late-bloomer. In his only season on the Mesa, Masterson was 6-7 with an ERA of 4.81. There’s been better pitchers at SDSU, but he appears to have a great pro future ahead of him.

Monday, June 02, 2008

Hoffman, Prior Prove to be Mortal; Gwynn

Among the many things not in the blueprint for the San Diego Padres this year was baseball mortality for star closer Trevor Hoffman and once-time ace starter Mark Prior.

I don't think anyone expected Hoffman to be what he once was, but I don't think anyone believed that 2008's precipitous decline would happen, either. True that in Sunday's blown save opportunity, the Giants never hit a ball hard and that he'd converted his previous eight save opportunities. But he also lost two games in that stretch and gave up five hits and two runs in a pair of innings pitched against Cincinnati. His ERA is up to 5.68 and he's allowed 27 baserunners in 19 innings -- not good when you're normally brought in at the beginning of the ninth.

Like the last time this came up, in April when he was struggling, I don't advocate replacing Hoffman right now. The Giants seeing-eye singles and Edgar Gonzalez' misplay could very well be an aberration, and Hoffman deserves the chance to prove that such was the case. But, like before, we have to keep a close eye on him and not keep running him out there so he can lose leads -- which for the Padres are preciously few.

One of the advantages that Manager Bud Black has right now, which he didn't have in April, is an effective Heath Bell, who in his last seven appearances has allowed no runs, three hits and one walk. Black should accord Bell the occasional save opportunity no matter what Hoffman is up to.

Prior, meanwhile, will have season-ending surgery on his shoulder before ever coming close to making a return to the mound. It was a high-stakes gamble for the Padres to sign him in the first place, where if he'd returned to health and form, he'd be a real asset for the pitching staff. Alas, it didn't happen. I think it was a worthy try by the front office. However, I now wonder whether the USDHS alum will ever be able to pitch again.

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It's June. Do you know where your Chase Headley is? The youngster hit his 10th home run for AAA Portland Sunday and has a .306 batting average. Time to stick him in Petco.

Seems to me this is the day I previously mentioned for his call up.

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Tony Gwynn has just completed his sixth year as the head baseball coach at San Diego State, and if that's not proof that times flies, nothing is. Speaking of things unexpected, Gwynn has not built SDSU into a perennial post-season ball club. Circumstances dictate that he should be given a seventh year at the helm of the program, but for him to have an eighth, his Aztecs darn well better be playing in June.

Gwynn's Aztecs have been a portrait in mediocrity, frankly. They have years that they can't pitch, others when they can't hit and still others when fielding blunders cost them mightily.

He gets a pass for this year's failure to reach the NCAA Regionals because they lost nearly their entire pitching staff from the previous season. They brought in a bunch of new guys, and like first-year players, many of them struggled. Sophomore Stephen Strasburg became a first-team All-American as named by Collegiate Baseball, but everyone else struggled. Much of the conference season saw Strasburg shut out the Aztecs opponent on Friday night, followed by two weekend games in which the other team scored in double digits. Hard to fault Gwynn for a full-scale change in the pitching staff.

Next year, though, he either gets these pitchers "coached up" and some of his young sluggers performing consistently, or the program is going to need to make a change.

There is no excuse whatsoever for the Aztecs to not win the pathetic Mountain West Conference regular season and/or tournament title with its automatic bid four out of every six years. Every so often, BYU and TCU will be good enough to snag a championship. So be it.

Gwynn only has won a regular season championship in his first season and has yet to guide the Aztecs to the NCAA Regionals. His seat is now hot.