Saturday, December 29, 2007

Big But Not Groundbreaking Basketball Wins

It's tempting to throw a whole bunch of superlatives at USD's 81-72 road conquest of perennial power Kentucky today at Rupp Arena, but in watching the contest, it was clear the Wildcats are nowhere near what we're used to seeing. Nice win, Toreros. A confidence builder.

USD has had bigger victories, however. The win over Gonzaga in the 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament final, the victory over UCLA at Pauley Pavilion earlier that season and a 1990s win over Kansas at the Sports Arena come to mind.

It's also hard to see the Toreros building on such a win, as nice as it was. This is a team that has ground through a very difficult schedule for having a new coach and new system -- and more than a few new players. They've played UNLV and USC and at New Mexico. They've had losing streaks of four and three games.

After a New Year's Eve game at Marshall, they come home for a gimme vs Cal State-Bakersfield before beginning WCC play by taking on San Francisco with new coach Eddie Sutton and going to Gonzaga and Portland. A possible 0-3 start is not what the doctor ordered and renders the Kentucky win, well, not meaningless, but reduces the significance of the upset.

The best scenario is for the Toreros to have found themselves, for guard Brandon Johnson to play like he did today in every game, for the coaches to have become comfortable with what they have, resulting in a strong third-place finish behind Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. That would make today quite meaningful indeed.

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By contrast, San Diego State's 79-78 overtime victory over Sam Houston State last night could have resolved a big problem I have with these Aztecs: a lack of mental toughness. The poor shooting at important times, the inability to convert clutch free throws, mistakes and defensive lapses have been cause for concern despite a 10-3 start to the season. Really, SDSU should be 11-2 minimum, maybe 12-1 and ranked. But these issues have raised their ugly heads and resulted in losses to the first three legitimate opponents they've played.

Maybe the Aztecs turned the corner with number four. Sam Houston State of the Southland Conference has no reputation at all, yet was undefeated coming into the game and claimed victories over Texas Tech, Fresno State and Saint Louis, and made the NCAA Tournament last year. This was a good and experienced group of Bearkats.

It took mental toughness by the Aztecs to tie the game late in regulation and win on a late basket by freshman Billy White with 11 seconds left in OT. Both sequences included turnovers that gave Sam Houston State possession, making life difficult for the Aztecs. But they got the stops they needed, a couple breaks because the Bearkats are a poor FT shooting team, and did just enough to win.

The Aztecs overcame their usual problems. They made just a quarter of the 24 three-point attempts, sank just 58 percent of their FTs and allowed the Bearkats to hit nearly half their shots overall and 41 percent of their threes.

The question now, just like for the Toreros, is whether they can take the mental toughness they developed to survive this game and apply it to the rest of the season. The Aztecs open Mountain West Conference play next Saturday against 8-4 Texas Christian, who've beaten no one to write home about and take on Texas -- which could drain them -- on Wednesday.

Just judging by the Aztecs conference schedule, they have a chance for a hot start, which will be important, because some tough road games loom in February.

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