Saturday, December 29, 2007

Big But Not Groundbreaking Basketball Wins

It's tempting to throw a whole bunch of superlatives at USD's 81-72 road conquest of perennial power Kentucky today at Rupp Arena, but in watching the contest, it was clear the Wildcats are nowhere near what we're used to seeing. Nice win, Toreros. A confidence builder.

USD has had bigger victories, however. The win over Gonzaga in the 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament final, the victory over UCLA at Pauley Pavilion earlier that season and a 1990s win over Kansas at the Sports Arena come to mind.

It's also hard to see the Toreros building on such a win, as nice as it was. This is a team that has ground through a very difficult schedule for having a new coach and new system -- and more than a few new players. They've played UNLV and USC and at New Mexico. They've had losing streaks of four and three games.

After a New Year's Eve game at Marshall, they come home for a gimme vs Cal State-Bakersfield before beginning WCC play by taking on San Francisco with new coach Eddie Sutton and going to Gonzaga and Portland. A possible 0-3 start is not what the doctor ordered and renders the Kentucky win, well, not meaningless, but reduces the significance of the upset.

The best scenario is for the Toreros to have found themselves, for guard Brandon Johnson to play like he did today in every game, for the coaches to have become comfortable with what they have, resulting in a strong third-place finish behind Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. That would make today quite meaningful indeed.

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By contrast, San Diego State's 79-78 overtime victory over Sam Houston State last night could have resolved a big problem I have with these Aztecs: a lack of mental toughness. The poor shooting at important times, the inability to convert clutch free throws, mistakes and defensive lapses have been cause for concern despite a 10-3 start to the season. Really, SDSU should be 11-2 minimum, maybe 12-1 and ranked. But these issues have raised their ugly heads and resulted in losses to the first three legitimate opponents they've played.

Maybe the Aztecs turned the corner with number four. Sam Houston State of the Southland Conference has no reputation at all, yet was undefeated coming into the game and claimed victories over Texas Tech, Fresno State and Saint Louis, and made the NCAA Tournament last year. This was a good and experienced group of Bearkats.

It took mental toughness by the Aztecs to tie the game late in regulation and win on a late basket by freshman Billy White with 11 seconds left in OT. Both sequences included turnovers that gave Sam Houston State possession, making life difficult for the Aztecs. But they got the stops they needed, a couple breaks because the Bearkats are a poor FT shooting team, and did just enough to win.

The Aztecs overcame their usual problems. They made just a quarter of the 24 three-point attempts, sank just 58 percent of their FTs and allowed the Bearkats to hit nearly half their shots overall and 41 percent of their threes.

The question now, just like for the Toreros, is whether they can take the mental toughness they developed to survive this game and apply it to the rest of the season. The Aztecs open Mountain West Conference play next Saturday against 8-4 Texas Christian, who've beaten no one to write home about and take on Texas -- which could drain them -- on Wednesday.

Just judging by the Aztecs conference schedule, they have a chance for a hot start, which will be important, because some tough road games loom in February.

2008 Could be Great

This week in the news business is all about lists, looks back at 2007 and gazes ahead toward 2008, so I might as well add mine. Here, a look at what might take place in local sports in the coming year in somewhat chronological order.

Chargers: The Bolts will likely open the playoffs at home against Cleveland and should win. Then comes a probable road game at Indianapolis. While the Colts were the much better team in the first match between the two, oddly won by the Chargers, San Diego has improved so much since that you have to like their chances. While the road could very well end in the dome, it wouldn't surprise me to see them advance to play either New England in chilly Foxboro or host a contest vs Jacksonville. I honestly don't see the Chargers going any further than the championship game. Not out of the realm of possibility. I see a 55-45 shot at winning at Indy, but no more than a 25 percent chance of winning the AFC title.

Buick Invitational: Tiger Woods draws Torrey Pines South on the first day and, despite having a decent day, falls 12 strokes behind someone on the North course who you've never heard of. By the time the second round is over, he's 10 strokes ahead of the unknown and among the leaders, ready to shoot it out with Phil Mickelson.

SDSU Basketball: The conference schedule would appear to have the Aztecs men posed for a hot start, maybe as much as 8-2, but tough road games down the stretch will tell the tale. This team appears to be lacking some mental toughness, so my bet would be a rough end and a 10-6 Mountain West Conference record. At 21-10, you're talking NIT unless they win the MWC Tournament. The women, on the other hand, could have a tough go early. Where the NIT would be something of a letdown for the men, it would be a huge boost for the ladies.

USD Basketball: Hard to judge where the Toreros sit, after going 5-8 with a couple terribly uninspiring losses, they go out and beat Kentucky -- no matter how bad the Wildcats are -- on the road. My read on this team, which could very well be wrong, is that while the record tells no lie, the tough non-conference slate has put some backbone into these guys. Opening West Coast Conference play vs USF and interim-coach Eddie Sutton, then on the road at Gonzaga and Portland, could mean a tough start. The women look pretty good, maybe not as good as last year. NIT at minimum.

US Open: The course is what the course is, you can't get away from it, so Tiger and Lefty will be there on Sunday. More than anything, the PGA is going to learn that they ignored San Diego for far too long and will want to return in another five years or so.

Padres: I can't see how the Friars can recover from this off-season. Unless another deal brings some lightning into the lineup, I don't see how the Padres can keep from battling the Giants for last place. The lineup could arguably be less productive in 2008 and the pitching rotation is asking for too many questions to be answered positively. This is no return to the bad old days. They might even challenge for 80 wins. But no more. One chance for me to be wrong: Kevin Kouzmanoff hits for whole season the way he did after his poor start, and for Khalil Greene to be consistent all season, not just the last month.

SDSU Football: Cautious optimism. Maybe 7-5 and a bowl game. I'd be surprised if they failed to at least reach 6-6. The non-conference schedule is easier, maybe 3-1 easier. In conference, those games you expect to lose -- BYU, TCU, New Mexico -- are on the road, where you expect to lose anyway. An improved team loses in Provo and Fort Worth, but splits between New Mexico on the road and Utah at home. Gotta steal one of those. Then win the rest, with Wyoming on the road and everyone else at Qualcomm Stadium. New quarterback and three new starters on the offensive line. But so many young players are back with a year of experience that it's hard not to be a bit positive over what coach Chuck Long and his staff is doing.

Who knows? By this time next year, maybe I'll be writing about the Chargers being favored to reach their second Super Bowl, the Aztecs getting ready to build on an NCAA Tournament appearance and the Padres returning to contention behind rising young stars. Hey, how about a new women's tennis tournament to replace the Acura Classic? Hope springs eternal when you're a sports fan.

All in all, I see our major teams and events starting to hit on all cylinders. The hard work put in on the Chargers and SDSU hoops is close to paying off, the SDSU football coaches are doing the right thing, and if the Padres are simply using this season to buy time, they might have a point. If I'm right, next year's predictions ought to be pretty fun to make.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Merry Christmas

Being a sports fan in San Diego brings with it much frustration, usually more aggravation than celebration, unfortunately. But as we approach Christmas, we are blessed with many gifts we've unwrapped this year under the sports tree.

-- Most timely, the Chargers have won four straight games and eight of their last 10 to clinch another AFC West title and playoff berth. The Bolts should win out, which would give them an 11-5 record and a postseason home game. We've also psychologically come to terms with the fact that while this is a pretty good team, it's probably not Super Bowl-worthy, so when the run comes to an end in January, we won't threaten mass suicide again.

-- The US Open at Torrey Pines is only six months away.

-- The Padres have come off a streak in which they won two straight National League West titles to make playoff berths, and played a meaningful game in October this year when a heck of a lot of other teams did not.

-- Beth Burns. Forget the UConn game. She's the best coach on the Mesa.

-- San Diego State's woeful football team finally has a coaching staff that understands the problems that have plagued the program for years and are, unlike most Aztecs coaches, are willing to undertake the challenge of what will be a long-term building program. No quick-fix scheme was going to change the Aztecs fortunes, but rather would have kept the program in a rut. Chuck Long and company are, finally, working to lay the strong foundation that has been sorely lacking. It will take longer to receive the payoff, but if success does come, it's more likely to be sustained.

-- Tiger is coming in just a few weeks.

-- The Oceanside High School football team, for winning the San Diego Section's debut in the state football bowl series, thereby gaining desperately needed street cred for future local teams that have good seasons. And to think of what coach John Carroll has done to mold a team. The problems in that city with gangs and crime are horrendous. Carroll has pulled together a winning group made up of kids who are black, white, Samoan and Latino and you never hear of troubles among them.

-- Three years of Josh Johnson. Now get to watch him on Sundays.

-- San Diego, of all places, now has three sports radio stations. The last, XTRA Sports 1360, is clearly the best. I can't listen to Dave, Jeff & Mike without a big smile on my face and I'm often laughing out loud in my car because of them. Josh Rosenberg is a fine young talent and Chris Ello is always willing to take a strong stand on issues. Lee Hamilton is still The 'saw, though his schtick often wears thin. Craig Elfsten is a portrait in hanging in there, now rewarded for sticking with Clear Channel through thick and thin.

-- Four years of Kevin O'Connell. Less likely to see him on Sundays, but the chance is still there.

-- Billy White, Tim Shelton and DJ Gay. White looks like a young Marcus Slaughter, Shelton appeared to be very good before he got hurt. Gay started well but now looks like a freshman, but point guard is the hardest position for a first-year player to learn. Once he gets it, he has the physical tools to be a good one. White's a future MWC Player of the Year. A couple more recruiting classes like this, and SDSU basketball will be a March Madness fixture.

-- Jake Peavy = Cy.

May 2008 bring more such gifts. Merry Christmas to all!

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Padres Win by Losing Fukudome, Oceanside Breaks Through in State Football

San Diego Padres General Manager Kevin Towers was saved from himself again Tuesday when Japanese free agent outfielder Kosuke Fukudome signed a four-year contract with the Cubs instead of the Friars.

Fukudome was a pretty good player in Japan, but according to media accounts, would likely have doubles power at Petco Park -- when the Padres really need a home run guy -- and was defensively more suited to right field than center, where the Padres have their real need. Not that I'd be complaining about his signing. His on-base percentage in Japan was always high. But there's better places to spend the Padres money, in my book.

Overall, it probably has not been a happy week for Towers. Milton Bradley signed with the Rangers instead of remaining with the manager, Bud Black, who injured him him September. Again, better them to take that risk than the Padres.

But that doesn't leave the Padres with a whole lot of wiggle room in filling their outfield holes. Towers is still pursuing Mike Cameron, though for a lot less than the player wants. And the notoriously slow starter at the plate won't be available until May because of his suspension. He can't even play in major league level spring games. So Cameron really won't be himself until July, you gotta figure.

News reports suggest that Towers will go the trade route if he can't sign Cameron. The obvious target: the Angels Gary Matthews Jr., who is expendable after the Halos signed Torii Hunter.

My preference, really, would be for Towers to slide some talent across the table toward Pittsburgh and bring Jason Bay home. With him in left, I'm a lot more willing to go cheap in center, even to the point of giving an incentive-laden contract to aging Steve Finley. Who knows, maybe you can get a good month or two out of the Rancho Santa Fe resident and mid-1990s Padres hero. That buys time to swing another deal. Having Bay around makes a lot of things easier.

Who knows how Fukudome would have performed for 81 games in Petco Park. Maybe he would have been outstanding. The only prediction we can truly make is that when he comes to visit, his last name will be intentionally and gleefully mispronounced by Friars fans in attendance.

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There is actual good news to report. The Padres Tuesday night were announcing that pitcher Jake Peavy passed his physical and was about to sign a $51.9 million contract extension through 2012. The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that the Friars signed Tadahito Iguchi to fill the second base hole. Iguchi hit .304 for the Phillies in 45 games after being traded by the White Sox.

I actually thought Iguchi was the best of the Padres options at the position. He hit 15 and 18 home runs in consecutive seasons with the White Sox. I saw a scouting report that labels him as having some clutch hitting ability, has base-running speed and sure hands defensively with average range.

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Thrilled to see that Oceanside High School was invited to play in California's medium schools bowl game Friday against Novato High from Northern California.

When the state bowl game concept was developed, there were legitimate worries that the San Diego Section would be perpetually shut out of the contests by Southern Section powers like Long Beach Poly.

Well, with Oceanside storming through the season after an opening loss to Helix, section commissioners saw fit to give the Pirates an invite.

How did this come about? Those who made the selection will talk about the Pirates having a fine season and that Crespi High School of Los Angeles lost it's last game. But what's really gone on is longevity of success for coach John Carroll and his team. The Pirates are good every single year against tough competition and have now won four straight section titles.

Poway, the section's Division I champion, had a great year in 2007. In 2006, the Titans made the section final but didn't have a great season as a whole.

Oceanside has been doing it for years now and have gotten noticed over time. That's what it will take for all San Diego Section schools that want to break through into a state bowl game.

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Not that it necessarily needs to be noticed after four years, but the first thing that came to my mind when I learned of Oceanside's opponent is Steven Rucker. Remember, he is the Novato firefighter who died in Julian in a flashover during the 2003 Cedar Fire. No matter what happens in the game, we owe the community of Novato a deep debt of gratitude.

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Chargers Win, Aztecs Lose on Important Weekend

It was a put up or shut up kind of weekend for the Chargers and San Diego State men's basketball team and, well, let the Bolts fans shout in joy and the Aztecs supporters ponder yet another frustrating defeat in a high-profile contest.

The Chargers comeback in a 23-17 conquest of Tennessee was no miraculous turnaround. No stunning plays. No sudden turnovers or reversals in fortune. The Bolts went almost nowhere offensively in the first three quarters, courtesy of defensive end Kyle VandenBosch's absolute domination of Marcus McNeill, who is playing much more like a rookie in his second professional season than he did last year. VandenBosh and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who played hurt, had Philip Rivers under such pressure that at one point in the second half, the Chargers quarterback had a passing rating of 11.

Getting the ball back at the 9 minute mark of the fourth quarter in decent field position, the Rivers hit Chris Chambers for 26 yards. LaDainian Tomlinson ran and and caught a pass for a TD to make the game 17-10.

Maybe the Chargers got their biggest break at this point. The Titans got a pair of first downs on runs by LenDale White, but on 3rd & 4, they tried to mix it up and have quarterback Vince Young throw a difficult pass. Incomplete. They punted.

The Chargers managed to complete a fourth-down pass to Chambers that was upheld on review, and the Bolts went on to score. For the second time in the game, punter Mike Scifres and special teams whiz Kassim Osgood pinned the Titans at their one-yard line, and the Bolts scored after a defensive stop on each occasion. The first one was the first TD, the second was the game winner in overtime.

This was the kind of game we wanted to see. The first half was extremely physical with both Rivers and Young going down with injuries. Antonio Gates, who caught the game-tying TD pass, was also hurt. Everything was going against Norv Turner's bunch against a good team on the road. Earlier this year, they lost in those situations (at Green Bay and Minnesota). This time they won.

This is the sort of game they'll need to win in the playoffs. Physical. On the road. Overcoming adversity. If Denver loses this afternoon, the Chargers will indeed be playoff bound.

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On a day when LT is going to be profiled nationally on CBS' "60 Minutes," it was sort of odd to see him hit with an unnecessary roughness penalty. He made everything okay again by scoring the first and last touchdowns.

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For San Diego State, a 69-64 loss to Saint Mary's College pointed up a number of problems.

On a deep team that has not developed a major star, no one has taken a floor leadership role who can run the team in the closing minutes of a close contest. That job should fall to point guard Richie Williams, but the junior has not stepped up the way he should in that regard. Lorrenzo Wade showed signs of trying to take on the role yesterday, but his efforts resulted in several forced shots that clanked off the rim. The Aztecs have been dramatically hurt by Kyle Spain's ankle injury, which limited him to 16 mostly ineffective minutes -- and he's a guy you wouldn't mind taking late-game shots.

The upshot is that offensive efforts were mostly in disarray in the second half of yesterday's loss, and late in the other loss in an otherwise fine season, at Cal.

These Aztecs have also become a poor free throw shooting team. They missed six straight, including the front end of a couple one-and-ones, late in yesterday's loss. We've been spoiled the past couple of years by great work at the charity stripe by Brandon Heath and Marcus Slaughter, among others. Not anymore.

The loss could be a costly one for the Aztecs come March. This is an NCAA Tournament worthy team, I think. But the selection committee likes to see "quality wins." The two good teams the Aztecs have played, Cal and Saint Mary's, have beaten them. The non-conference schedule includes only two more such schools, Arizona and Sam Houston State, before the Mountain West Conference slate begins. The MWC has not been impressive early this season, which bodes well for the Aztecs chances of a championship, but not in numbers of March Madness bids for the league.

Still, they've only lost twice. Figure a loss to Arizona and maybe three or four more in league play. I'm being a bit optimistic, I suppose. But that's still makes SDSU a 6- or 7-loss team. That will gain an NCAA berth.

Where the Cal and Saint Mary's losses hurt will be in seeding. A middle seed like 8 or 9 will probably give way now to 13 or 14 with a lack of big wins.

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What's funny about the Chargers game is that writers, especially those on the road who have to be concerned about travel plans, are usually putting their stories together in the second half. With the Bolts down 17-3 and playing pathetically on offense midway through the fourth quarter, you can imagine what the stories were like.

"Hello, Sweetheart. Get me rewrite!"

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On the other hand, props are due for the San Diego State and University of San Diego women's teams.

The Aztecs have beaten USD for the first time in years and are off to a 7-1 start. Freshman center Paris Johnson is the real deal. So is redshirt freshman forward Allison Duffy.

The Toreros season has been up-and-down to this point, but they just beat UCLA behind 30 points by center Amber Sprague and 12 assists by guard Amanda Rego.

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Fisher Points the Way to SDSU Football Turnaround

Because of a scheduling conflict, I chose to attend the San Diego State basketball game vs. Western Michigan Saturday, while I listened to the bulk of the football contest vs Brigham Young. The contrast between the events -- a game but undermanned football squad losing by three touchdowns compared to the hoops team scoring a mostly unspectacular 11-point victory -- got me thinking that there is a link between the two situations.

More than the continuing mind-bending it takes to get yourself around the concept that SDSU is now a basketball school instead of one known for football.

Under Steve Fisher, the Aztecs this season replaced two of the better players in the history of the school with a score of highly talented newcomers who have made this team the best in the nearly 30 years I've been following them. Top-to-bottom, these kids can flat-out play. Fisher has never had this sort of depth and, it necessarily follows, neither has any prior Aztecs coach.

While it is early yet, in my experience I've never seen the Mountain West Conference or it's WAC predecessor with enough depth to slow a team like this over the course of a 16-game league schedule. A game or two or three? Sure. BYU and Utah with their size will cause some matchup programs, and a college basketball slate is grueling. No question. And you never know what will happen in a short conference tournament. But for this team to not make the NCAA Tournament will be a real disappointment, assuming the health problems end with Tim Shelton's knees. With the right sort of opponent, they could even make a short March Madness run.

That's a little different from where the football team is.

What Fisher has done over the last couple of years is re-stocking. The key part of that is "re." He had some pretty good building blocks in place during this decade and has been able to improve upon them with each recruiting cycle. Randy Holcomb and Aerick Sanders begat Mohamed Abukar and Brandon Heath, who led to Billy White and DJ Gay and Kelvin Davis and Ryan Amaroso and Shelton. Now they are where they are, and we'll see where it takes them.

Football coach Chuck Long, in contrast, is barely above Ground Zero in this process. He's managed to find some promising linemen, a quality receiver in Vincent Brown, an interesting tight end in Alston Umuolo and intriguing linebacker Miles Burris. Ryan Lindley is the heir apparent at quarterback.

But there's not much of a build-upon factor for the seniors who played their final game. Quarterback Kevin O'Connell is it. I'm not sure a high school offensive lineman wants to go to San Diego State because he's heard wonderful things about the outgoing quarterback, however.

For the Aztecs program to grow, the Lindleys, Browns, Umuolos and Burrises are going to have to take the field next season and produce. And not just them. For that to happen, the new linemen are going to have to set a new standard of play. With center Trask Iosefa finishing what has to be considered a superb debut season for a freshman at his key spot, the new guys, Tommie Draheim, Leo Grassilli, Kellen Farr and other youngsters in the trenches are going to have to get in there and make a name for themselves over the next four years.

The defensive line, where many got a baptism by fire this season, the sophomores-to-be Ernie Lawson, Peter Nelson, B.J. Williams and Peter Nelson will have to be far stronger next year than they were this.

The only way for Long to even begin to approach where Fisher is in the re-loading process, these new linemen -- along with Lindley -- will need to hold down their jobs for the next three or four years. Hopefully, those years will result in a bowl game or two or more. That way, Long and his staff can recruit their replacements and build them up to where they can start playing as juniors instead of true freshmen.

When the basketball teams were introduced last night and the PA announcer said "in his ninth year, Steve Fisher!" my wife turned to me and said something like "wow, has it been that long?"

Yes, it sure has. We're only now beginning to see the true fruits of his -- and Brian Dutcher's -- labors. It takes that long when you're starting from scratch. When Fisher and Dutcher came here, remember, San Diego State's men's basketball program was arguably the worst major college program in the nation. It can take that long to climb out of such a cellar.

Even with the recent struggles, the football program is not in quite as bad a shape as basketball once was. There is tradition to build on, for one. It may not take Long, Bob Elliott and Del Miller as long as it took Fisher and Dutcher. And even in the basketball buildup, there were two NCAA appearances and two NIT selections. So while football might take some years to reach the same level, there could be a couple minor bowl appearances between now and then.

Many wonder whether Long and his staff have what it takes to see the process through. Of course, Fisher himself has been often questioned by fans over the years. The football coaches seem to be taking Fisher's long-term approach, however. That approach has paid off in hoops, and if Long keeps his eyes down the road, football will get there, too. Someday. Quicker than nine years, hopefully.