Friday, December 31, 2010

2010 Sports Moments and 2011 Predictions

The moments that made San Diego sports in 2010, in no particular order:

-- the Chargers lose their first playoff game in January, following a 13-3 record in 2009. That the Bolts came close to the Jets yet lost because of mistakes and weakness in the trenches foretold this fall's collapse.

-- the Chargers went to Seattle with a 1-1 record to start the 2010 season and, against a team destined to finish below .500, allowed two kickoff returns for touchdowns, turned the ball over five times and committed 11 penalties -- and lost by a touchdown.

-- the Padres won 90 games and came within two games of beating out eventual World Series champion San Francisco for the NL West crown, but on Dec. 5 traded 1B Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. Gonzalez led the team in batting average, home runs, RBI and runs scored -- and they got no major leaguers in return.

-- in the middle of August, Giants hot-head P Jonathan Sanchez promised a sweep of their upcoming series against San Diego at AT&T Park. In the first game, Padres P Clayton Richard threw one of his best games of the season for a 3-2 win over Sanchez. The Padres took two out of the three games. Alas, the 10-game losing streak was less than two weeks away.

-- the San Diego State women's basketball team had a rocky regular season, entering an early-season tournament with high hopes against top competition but losing all three games, and falling in four of five conference games in February. But stuck in a tough NCAA Tournament draw, the Aztecs caught fire and routed host Texas 74-63 on March 21. Two days later they beat #10 West Virginia, falling only to #6 Duke in the Sweet 16.

-- in all the years of SDSU men's basketball, which included a small college national championship in 1941, the Aztecs had never been ranked. On Oct. 28, they were for the first time, entering the pre-season AP poll at #25. The Aztecs have done nothing but head upward since, going 14-0 to rise to #7.

-- Admit it, you left last week's Poinsettia Bowl with a sense of satisfaction you haven't felt after an SDSU football game in decades. A 35-14 win over Navy gave the Aztecs their first post-season victory in 41 years.

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Now for the predictions:

-- the Chargers will rebound behind QB Philip Rivers, a motivated WR Vincent Jackson and a reconfigured defense, and will beat out Kansas City for the AFC West title.

-- the Padres AAAA team will look good early behind some decent pitching, but the heat of summer will warm up the bats of opponents, sending them careening into last place.

-- the SDSU women are struggling behind youthful guards this year, but the men will win the MWC regular season title and enter the NCAA Tournament with a #3 seed. If they can survive their opener, no small task, they could match the women's accomplishment of last season -- or better it.

-- the SDSU football team will rout Cal Poly and Army to open the 2011 football season, but will have a tough time with a Washington State team that improved late this year and will have their hands full with Michigan. That said, they could beat a depleted TCU team at home later in the season and finish second behind Boise State in the new-look MWC.

-- the University of San Diego football team could see fortunes turn for the better in 2011 with the return of decorated DE Mario Kurn and most of a season under the belt of QB Mason Mills.

-- once basketball is done in March or, hopefully, April, the most interesting thing to watch will be USD baseball. That WCC mark of 19-2 last year hid an out-of-conference record of 18-20, so the Toreros are ranked only 28th in one preseason poll. Yet, coach Rich Hill brought in the second-best recruiting class in the nation, so if those youngsters can fit in early, this could be a darn good season. The pre-season includes visits by always strong Vanderbilt and Coastal Carolina.

Happy New Year!

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Chargers to Miss Playoffs, Keep Smith and Turner

Chargers President Dean Spanos is correct, in a way, to stick with GM AJ Smith and head coach Norv Turner following the Bolts' elimination from playoff contention on Sunday. Many fans want blood, judging by comments on radio talk shows and the Internet, but a knee-jerk reaction will not do the team or supporters much good.

The Chargers simply had a bad year -- singular. Even that 8-8 season a couple of years ago included a playoff victory. Last year, the record was 13-3. Smith has done a pretty good job in identifying talent to stock his roster, and Turner has won with those players. This is the NFL, and other teams are good, too, so stuff like this year will happen. I can read trends like anyone else, with declining numbers of annual playoff victories, poor Septembers and alternating good and bad years.

All that said, Smith and Turner have their work cut out for them this off-season.

Smith publicly is a stickler for character, yet teams stocked with high quality people don't have wild inconsistencies like the 2010 Chargers, and way too many players have had off-field problems and run-ins with the law. He's brilliant in finding diamonds in the rough, talent on the waiver wire and second-day draft picks. Yet, his record is quite poor in the first round or two of the NFL Draft. RB Ryan Mathews was hobbled all year and has now experienced what the pro game requires for success. I bet he comes on strong in 2011, but just how high a level that is remains questionable. The results from recent high picks casts doubt.

Also, group together the sagas of WR Vincent Jackson, LT Marcus McNeill and LB Shawne Merriman and you have an utter fiasco. There's no excuse for the way Smith conducts business, and the Chargers are worse off for it. This year, for the first time, Smith's own character flaws caught up with his many accomplishments.

As for Turner, how does he meld a collection of under-performing high draft choices, malcontents and castoffs into a real team that pulls together for a legitimate playoff run in 2011? That he came close this year is testiment to his ability to coach. However, just because I disagree with his detractors doesn't mean I think he is great as a team leader. The greats don't let the Raiders games happen to them or allow constantly sloppy games on the road.

So, no, nothing knee-jerk from me. It is standard practice if you're a team owner to keep a mental list of potential GM or head coach candidates should you need one -- and I'm sure Spanos has such a list. He might have consulted the list already. If it includes better names than the ones which currently fill the positions, then I could see making changes as part of a package deal. Otherwise, why bother? Firing someone just because you're mad won't help matters.

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The 2010 Chargers were a recipe for disaster.

-- Going into the season minus something like five or six of your best players,

-- Your top draft choice, the replacement for one of the missing, gets hurt in training camp,

-- A turnstile at receiver, and

-- Unresolved weaknesses in the trenches, as evidenced by the pounding administered by the Jets in last season's playoffs.

The Chargers top needs for draft and free agent help, in my eyes, are defensive end and safety. The offensive line could use some help and I wouldn't mind using a second-day pick on a receiver with raw potential of the sort Jackson was when he came out of the University of Northern Colorado. Fitting that bill would be San Diego State's DeMarco Sampson (Vincent Brown should be long gone before the Bolts turn to that priority).

Friday, December 24, 2010

Christmas List - The Best San Diego Sports Teams Ever

It's become clear the past couple of weeks that the San Diego State basketball team is having a once-in-a-lifetime kind of season, indeed the school's first in which a team that shoots a round ball into a hoop is being given a legitimate shot at contending for a national championship. Sure, if you're Duke, North Carolina or Michigan State, reaching the Final Four is routine. I'm writing about San Diego State here. There is no reason to sell the school short, but the Aztecs have never been known as a basketball powerhouse. Far from it. When coach Steve Fisher arrived at Montezuma Mesa 12 years ago, SDSU had what was arguably the worst major college basketball program in the United States. Now the 2010-11 Aztecs are among the best.

Which leads us to this, our list of the greatest teams in the history of San Diego, be they professional, college or amateur. Level doesn't matter -- accomplishment does.

1. 1963 Chargers - The only local major professional team to win the championship of an entire league, the Chargers were led by veteran QB Tobin Rote, the RB tandem of Paul Lowe and Keith Lincoln, and WR Lance Alworth's 61 receptions.

2. 2009 Park View Little League - How about not just a league title, but a world championship? The Blue Bombers from Chula Vista captured our attention for a week with their inspired play, and they came home to rousing ovations.

3. 1998 San Diego Padres - Once CF Steve Finley hit that ninth-inning grand slam against the Diamondbacks in April, the NL West race was over. LF Greg Vaughn hit 50 HR, closer Trevor Hoffman had his best season and P Kevin Brown shut down opposing batters in a magical summer.

4. 1994 Chargers - There is not a Bolts fan in adulthood who can't immediately conjure up an image of LB Dennis Gibson knocking down that last-second pass in Pittsburgh to put the team in their first Super Bowl. Stan Humphries, Junior Seau and how about Leslie O'Neil and the late-Chris Mims combining for 23.5 sacks?

5. 1973 San Diego State men's volleyball team - The school's only Division 1 national championship. The Aztecs defeated top-ranked Long Beach State at the Sports Arena, and Duncan McFarland -- who became a longtime coach -- was named MVP. Chris Marlowe won a volleyball gold medal 11 years later.

6. 1988 Morse High football - Teddy Lawrence was an option QB with a per-carry average of 19 yards per game. Tommy Bennett joined him at UCLA. Gary and Cary Taylor ran the ball. They crushed Darnay Scott's Kearny team 51-6 back when the Komets were a force. They beat Vista for the CIF championship 48-14.

7. 1955 San Diego High football - Okay, it's hard to separate high school football teams, so let's keep them together. The Cavers, led by Art Powers, were crowned by some the mythical "national champions."

8. 1986 and 1987 Point Loma High girl's basketball - Terri Mann and the Pointers dominated prep hoops statewide about as much as UConn does today in college ball, led by coach Lee Trepanier.

9. 2003 La Costa Canyon High baseball - Named national and state champions and Justin Machado was state Coach of the Year. The Mavericks set CIF records with 32 wins in a season and 27 straight victories.

10. 2010 San Diego State football - The 1977 Aztecs won 10 games and had a better defense, and the 1979 edition took down better opponents, but neither of them capped off their years with bowl game victories. Ronnie Hillman, Ryan Lindley, Vincent Brown, Andrew Preston and the rest of the red & black got the job done.

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The rousing Poinsettia Bowl victory by SDSU over Navy was a wonderful Christmas present. May the gifts keep flowing generously off the Mesa in the new year. Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Gay Wins Over Fans of Streaking Aztecs, Padres in the Middle

Only a little more than a year ago, DJ Gay was the guy who made fans of San Diego State basketball nervous. After two inconsistent years as the Aztecs shooting guard, he was set to take over the point, which was vacated by four-year starter Richie Williams. The thinking was that Gay would do his best, but...

There was some reason for worry. Gay ran some point his first two seasons while Williams rested, and the offense invariably stagnated. That was then.

Now, who is the most popular Aztec? Consensus NBA prospect Kawhi Leonard? Spectacular four-year veteran Billy White? San Diegan Malcolm Thomas? No. It's DJ Gay.

Oh, sorry, that was supposed to be "D! J! Gay!" yelled with gusto by 12,000 fans thrusting out their fists in a hopping Viejas Arena.

The kid who was going to do his best while playing out of position is now the best point guard the school has ever had. He played nearly every minute of every game last season and led the Aztecs to a Mountain West Conference Tournament championship and the Big Dance. He is the leader on a deep team in time spent on the floor this season. He's converting on 43 percent of his three-point shots, including a couple of daggers fired with the shot clock well into single digits -- such a play keyed a big first-half run in Saturday's 90-64 rout of an otherwise very good UC Santa Barbara team.

Handling the ball and running the floor at the point, "D! J! Gay!" has committed just 21 turnovers in a dozen contests. The Aztecs are making more than half their shots. That doesn't happen when your stagnant.

For all that, Gay is the most popular Aztec on a 12-0 team, a guy who takes care of business at the point on a squad that should be solidly ranked in the Top 10 when the new rankings come out Monday. Those old worries are long gone.

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A lot has been made over the four sellouts at Viejas Arena so far this season and how it plays into the "San Diego Only Supports a Winner" argument. To me, winning the conference tournament and going to the NCAAs and nearly knocking off Tennessee under unduly harsh conditions gave the program a stamp of legitimacy -- something more than simply winning a bunch of games. We'll see over the next few years, which will include a few lumps by this time next season, how it plays out.

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I would have been more excited about the Padres acquisitions of SS Jason Bartlett and 2B Orlando Hudson two or three years ago. While Bartlett is unquestionably an upgrade at the position, even over Miguel Tejada, he is still a punch-and-judy hitter who has had only one good season at the plate. Hudson's on-base percentage has dropped successively the past three years, his batting average the past two. His strikeout totals are up.

So the Padres are better in the middle of the infield than a year ago, but only by a small margin, unless we get lucky. And major questions remain at the top with CF Cameron Maybin, and at C where Nick Hundley works best in tandem, but might have to carry the entire load on his shoulders in 2011. With those two issues, the Padres are still far below where they were last year, even after the Bartlett/Hudson additions.

The field starting lineup in 2011 looks like this, so far:

1B - Kyle Blanks
2B - Hudson
SS - Bartlett
3B - Chase Headley

LF - Ryan Ludwick
CF - Maybin
RF - Will Venable

C - Hundley

There are currently zero power threats. Counting on a return to 2008 form by Ludwick is ludicrous, as is holding out hope that Blanks will return healthy and productive. Either or both could happen, but you can't plan for them. Occasional homers will come off the bats of Headley and Hundley, but not many.

Hopefully, GM Jed Hoyer still has some cards to play.

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Rationalizing the Gonzalez Trade

Me: a desperate Padres fan.

Current activity: trying to rationalize the trade of 1B Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox.

As said in previous posts, I fully understand the need to trade the slugger based on statements that he was not interested in any "San Diego discount." That's fine, his choice. It meant the Padres were never going to re-sign him.

But get a major leaguer for him to at least make the 2011 team competitive.

That Hoyer didn't makes me wonder why. He's not dumb, and there have been comments from owner Jeff Moorad that they have oars in the water that will affect next year. So I'm wondering if he plans on repackaging the prospects in some way that might bring in a legitimate major league player.

One more supporting bit of evidence: the timing. This trade happened right before the start of baseball's Winter Meetings. When there was a snag over the weekend, they rushed to complete the trade by basically ignoring the hangup.

I think there's more to come, maybe something big. Something we might like.

Or maybe I'm just desperate.

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As an unabashed San Diego State fan, I would love some Oceanside and Cathedral Catholic linemen to stay home. Awesome.

And you have to love how a lot of coach Brady Hoke's end-of-season leverage was used to improve facilities and get pay raises for his assistants.

The Michigan thing might still be there, but my bet is he probably received a discreet signal that it is a couple of years too early for him to be considered a serious candidate. The problem for Hoke is, when he has the Aztecs at greater heights in a few seasons, he might be considered too old. It would also require the Wolverines to completely botch their second coaching hire in a row. I'm not sure that's going to happen.

Sunday, December 05, 2010

Gonzalez Still a Padre (For a Short While, Anyway); Holiday Bowl, Chargers

Sunday night edit: Contract extension talks are now on hold, and it appears the deal will go through without one.

Maybe Adrian wants to go to the Washington Nationals?

For whatever reason, 1B Adrian Gonzalez could not reach a long-term deal with the Red Sox and will go into baseball's Winter Meetings as a member of the San Diego Padres still. This could go down as one of those "best trades that Kevin Towers made were the ones that never went through," like the ones where he tried to pawn off Phil Nevin for a loaf of bread and a splintered Louisville Slugger. Saving Jed Hoyer's butt for not at least getting one major leaguer in exchange for his best player.

Again, I understand the necessity for trading Gonzo, and I think some of those prospects look fine, but you've got to think of 2011, too.

And if you're not sure of the Nationals reference, slugger Jayson Werth signed in DC for $126 million over seven years. If I'm Adrian, I'd re-think my demands, too.

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Holiday Bowl now has Nebraska taking on Washington instead of Missouri. The Cornhuskers were an up-and-down team this season, but have good backs in Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead. The freshman QB, Taylor Martinez, had a brilliant start to his career but has been injury-plagued and inconsistent the past month or so.

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The Chargers can't handle confidence, is what I think. You must be confident to succeed at the highest levels of competition, but you can't be smug. The Chargers don't seem to be able to figure out how to have the confidence to do what is necessary to win -- it's like they expect to win. The Raiders simply wanted to win more and were willing to pay the price of victory.

It was the Chargers first December loss in 18 games dating back to Dec. 31, 2005, against Miami and will be costly, since they are now two games behind Kansas City with four to play. The only hope the Bolts have now to make the playoffs is the Chiefs don't have a cakewalk of a schedule.

Aztecs Recall Old Greats, The Once-Great Holiday Bowl

The San Diego State men's basketball team trailed a very good Wichita State team by a point in the second half of Saturday night's game when the homestanding Aztecs burst into a 14-0 run that extended to 21-3, and SDSU won 83-69.

That 14-0 spree covered 1:11 of game time and wasn't simply getting on a hot spell from behind the arc or something. It was a stifling pressing defense that caused steals and blocks that led to fast breaks and dunks. As an old-timer myself, it reminded me of one of college basketball's great phenomenon's, Phi Slamma Jamma of the University of Houston. Those teams back in the early 1980s featured two players who went on to become greats in the NBA, Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. The supporting cast was darn good, too, and they'd go on these dunk-fest runs that would blow good teams right out of the gym. The Aztecs, for a little over a minute last night, were as close to Phi Slamma Jamma as I've seen since. The physical domination ignited the greatest crowd response at Viejas Arena since the NIT quarterfinal win over St. Mary's two seasons ago.

SDSU still has a number of challenges ahead, including a fire-and-ice Cal team in Berkeley and two other undefeated Mountain West Conference rivals, BYU and UNLV. But if the Aztecs can bottle that 1:11 and uncork it when necessary, then this is going to be a heck of a year.

By the way, get your tickets now. The last two home games were sold out. I suspect tickets will be snapped up quickly for the rest of the weekend games, plus weeknight games vs good opponents.

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I'm not sure this is what Holiday Bowl officials had in mind when they created the Poinsettia Bowl a few years ago, but for the third season in a row, the newer post-season college football game in San Diego is going to show up big brother.

Two years ago, Boise State and TCU brought thousands of fans and one loss between them and engaged in a thrilling one-point game, that was the Broncos last setback until the shocker in Reno the day after this Thanksgiving. That same year, Oregon and Oklahoma State engaged in a Holiday Bowl scorefest that was pretty interesting but nowhere near as well-played as the earlier game, with the Cowboys appearing to be in meltdown mode.

Last year, it appeared that the Holiday Bowl had the upper hand with upstart Arizona taking on Nebraska, after the Cornhuskers might have had a Big 12 championship stolen from them by poor officiating. No, Nebraska dominated in a snoozer, coming a week after Utah beat Cal in a pretty good Poinsettia Bowl.

This year, San Diego State-Navy on Dec. 23 looks a heck of a lot more interesting than Missouri against Washington, which qualified for a bowl game with a 6-6 record and had to defeated sad-sack Washington State by a touchdown to do so. Holiday Bowl officials, in their hearts, rooted for a Cougars upset so they could go outside the Pac-10 and get Notre Dame. No luck. I think highly of Missouri as a team, and there was some high-quality conversation between Aztecs and Tigers fans when their teams played back in September, but you have to figure they're not going to be thrilled coming here after their season started with such promise. And Washington is as good as its record. As much as luck took up residence in the Holiday Bowl from the beginning of its existence, good fortune appears to have migrated to the Poinsettia Bowl.

Sunday evening edit: and it will be Nebraska instead of Missouri.

Friday, December 03, 2010

Gonzalez Going?, Hoke's Motivation, Notes

I'm waiting for good off-season news from the Padres.

Of course, I'm not exactly holding my breath, either, for that could prove fatal the way things have started out. While GM Jed Hoyer has added a defensive-minded project in CF Cameron Maybin, we've been treated to saying goodbye to a whole bunch of other quality players.

The latest here on Friday is that trade talks are heating up with the Red Sox over 1B Adrian Gonzalez, who would go to Boston for prospects. I understand why trading the best player -- and most marketable -- on the team might be necessary, but at least get a major league hitter for him. There is nothing this team needs more than a legitimate threat in the batter's box and if Gonzalez goes, there will be none.

(Saturday morning edit: sources say the deal is done, with P Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo and OF Reymund Fuentes coming here. Kelly was considered the Sox top prospect despite going 3-5, 5.31 in 21 starts in AA this year, throws in the low-90s and has a hard curveball; Rizzo is a big lefty with gap power that might fit Petco Park well, solid defender and considered a top prospect despite mediocre minor league numbers; Fuentes looks like another Maybin.)

I will say that by listening to the radio and reading some Internet postings, some panic appears to be setting in among Padres fans about the 2011 season, but Hoyer did a fine job in patching holes last year and Bud Black was fully deserving of his NL Manager of the Year Award despite stiff opposition. It's early yet -- I won't panic until tomorrow. No, seriously, mid-January.

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It doesn't take much to read into coach Brady Hoke's motivation for waiting to sign his contract extension at San Diego State. It's because the Michigan athletic director will not evaluate embattled Wolverines coach Rich Rodriguez until after their bowl game, most likely at the start of the new year. None of this is really news, but it at least gives us a timeline.

Michigan is Hoke's dream job, even if he would probably not, at this point, be the top candidate. That would be Jim Harbaugh, the former Chargers QB and USD coach who took the Wolverines to the Rose Bowl and now runs the Stanford program. Michigan might want him, but Harbaugh went to high school in Palo Alto in a family that was involved in athletics on The Farm. I'm not sure he goes. If he doesn't, then Hoke moves one rung up the ladder of candidates, who knows how close to the top.

A lot of people are annoyed with Hoke for dragging this whole thing out, and I would be too if this were all about Minnesota or Indiana. But it's Michigan, and you've got to allow a man to pursue his career dream, especially when the SDSU program could absorb the horrible timing of such a loss in-house.

Eventually, I think this will all go for naught -- this year. I think cooler heads will prevail in Ann Arbor, where Rodriguez has the right QB to run his spread offense. He just needs to recruit better players for defense.

Coincidentally, the Aztecs play in the "Big House" next season. If Michigan is struggling again, it could be an on-scene audition for Hoke.

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It was a wonderful night, Wednesday, watching Hoke and the Aztec football seniors accepting an invitation to the Poinsettia Bowl before the basketball game vs. Saint Mary's. I like Hoke but sometimes I don't understand his methods. His bomb-throwing QB is a junior, his top defenders are a junior and sophomore, his conference Freshman of the Year running back is, yep, a freshman. I think they should have joined in the fun...Then to watch the hoops team dismantle a very good Gaels squad that returned three starters from a Sweet 16 appearance en-route to a 14-point win in which they were never seriously threatened...The Wichita State game is on track to be another sellout. If the Aztecs can get through the next couple games unscathed, you might not find another empty seat at Viejas Arena the rest of the season...I haven't written about the Chargers much because, well, none of what's happening is particularly surprising. Stop screwing up and you win...Congratulations to coaches Gary Blevins and Chris Thompson for getting Mira Mesa High to the stadium after many years of playoff frustration...Oceanside High has won six straight Division II titles and is headed back to the final again. The Pirates really should be competing in Division I...I love it whenever the Padres sign a local guy, like P Aaron Harang (Patrick Henry High, SDSU), but since his best season of 2007 (16-6, 3.87), his records have been 6-17, 6-14, and 6-7 with bad ERA's. At least we can count on the Padres winning six games next season.