Sunday, November 29, 2009

Work Only Starting for Hoke on SDSU Football

The real work for Brady Hoke and his staff of San Diego State football coaches started around 9:30 p.m. Saturday, when their disappointing 4-8 debut season ended with a 28-24 loss at Nevada-Las Vegas.

The unfortunate fact of the matter is that Hoke and his assistants were prisoners of circumstance during the 2009 campaign. As do all first-year coaches, they came into the recruiting battle late and picked up a few nuggets, though not nearly enough. They spent the spring practice both trying to install fresh schemes and evaluating the players on hand. They went into the fall having to play with the hand dealt by fate.

The truism in football is you are what your record says you are. It's not something that necessarily applies early in the season but when you reach the last couple weeks, it's something you can't avoid. SDSU was a 4-8 football team in 2009.

Now it's time for Hoke, offensive coordinator Al Borges, defensive coordinator Rocky Long, and the rest of the assistants to get to the real work of building this program back to respectability and, hopefully, bowl eligiblity.

Here are some of the issues they have to deal with, as I see it:

1. Strength - this team remains physically weak on the offensive line and across the entire defense, though Long's attacking scheme contributed mightily to a reduction in injuries. The OL can't hold blocks and the defenders can't fight them off. Another off-season with heralded strength coach Aaron Wellman will help, but Hoke has to bring in some bigger, stronger kids -- hopefully a few from junior colleges who will be eligible immediately.

2. Speed - the other component of a good football player, and the Aztecs have little of it. An enduring image of this season will be CB Larry Parker scooping up a fumble at the goal line against Wyoming and returning the ball with no one around him at first -- and being caught easily by a couple Cowboys much bigger than him.

Consider for points one and two that the Aztecs ran a defensive system based on pressure, yet ranked 89th out of 120 teams with 19 QB sacks, and 76th in tackles for loss.

3. The secondary - this group was the unit that worried me most coming into the season and they delivered by being unable to defend any passes at all in the come-from-ahead losses to Wyoming and UNLV. They ranked 55th out of 120 teams in passing yards allowed per game, but in efficiency were rather low in yards per attempt and yards per completion.

4. Offensive line - they lose stalwart tackle Peter Nelson and guard Ikaika Aken-Moleta who, as hard as they worked, wouldn't have started on too many other Division 1 teams. Them getting regular playing time meant younger players couldn't beat them out. That doesn't inspire confidence about what's in the pipeline. The depth is mostly deadwood and the youth, other than G Nik Embernate, is not promising.

5. Quarterback - Ryan Lindley came out of El Capitan HS appearing to be a budding star, and his freshman year gave credence to such hopes. His rocky sophomore year gives one pause, however. The first half of the season, he had little blocking, no running game and both he and his receivers were struggling to get on the same page with a new offense. That was understandable and he hit his stride at mid-season. But the past four games or so he's regressed. The pass protection was reasonable, the running game a bit better and the receivers were stepping up. Trouble was, Lindley didn't keep pace. I'd take four Mountain West quarterbacks before I'd choose him right now. He has to get better, since he's unlikely to face challenge for his position.

6. Keeping the Commits - Much of the work ahead is in recruiting, where Hoke's staff has already made considerable headway, getting verbal commitments from a larger number of players with multiple stars by their names than did his predecessor. Coaches from other programs are coming in after their bowl games in hopes of poaching off some of these players. Hoke has to figure out how to keep their loyalty even though they'll be playing in a very large morgue the next couple of years. Most of the current commits are skill players. They have to add linemen, particularly from the JC ranks.

7. Community Interest - Which brings us to fan support, of which there is very little left. The Aztecs frittered away at their fan base with past teases of the sort that occured when they entered the Wyoming game with a 4-4 record. Hoke has made numerous media appearances, and he has to keep it up through the entire upcoming off-season. He should also re-open some of his practices to fans and the media. Nothing will beat winning.

I'm relatively pleased with things I saw this season. I think the coaches can get SDSU into a position to win football games, which is something I can't say about their predecessors. They simply have to upgrade talent, which is a long and arduous task. The way I see it, some stronger Aztecs will again flirt with 6-6 in 2010. By 2011, maybe they can challenge for an 8-win season. That will make things much better.

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I still don't see the Cotton Bowl passing up fan-heavy Nebraska for Oklahoma State as the morning paper suggested, but it could happen I guess. Even after the Cowboys were skunked by Oklahoma Saturday? I don't know. I think the Pokes are back in San Diego to face the Oregon-Oregon State loser.

The Arizona-USC loser for the Poinsettia makes sense, as does BYU coming here instead of Las Vegas because they've been there so many times recently.

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I have no problem with TCU being left out of the championship game picture if both Florida and Texas win their conference title games Saturday. As a traditionalist, I see the Gators as the undefeated defending champs who should keep that spot until knocked off, or if they clearly don't meet the eye test. None of those has happened. My own eye test's result is that the Longhorns are the best team in college football. Alabama does not pass the eye test. If it's Florida-Texas for all the marbles, fine by me.

With tons of returning stars, I do see the Horned Frogs as preseason number one in 2010, however.

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My somewhat different take on the Heisman:

1. Colt McCoy - the Texas QB is the leader of the best team and deserves the award for his four-year body of work.

2. Toby Gerhart - the Stanford RB is the best in college football at his position and had a Kellen Winslow-type performance against Notre Dame on Saturday.

3. Andy Dalton - the TCU QB is playing as well as anyone, leading a team that is playing as well as any team.

Tebow has his award. So there.

Monday, November 23, 2009

San Diego's Best Coaches

San Diego County is blessed with some of the best coaches and managers in sports right now, clearly something that has not always been the case. Remember Chuck Long was let go by SDSU less than a year ago. How about Kevin Gilbride of the Chargers? Or recall when SDSU went out and got former Wyoming basketball boss Jim Brandenburg to come here and retire? Those were the bad old days.

These, right now, are good times and payoffs have either arrived or appear to be close. Here now, in order, my list of the best coaches in town.

1. Beth Burns - San Diego State's women's basketball program stagnated when she left for Ohio State in the mid-1990s. Things were so bad when she returned that her first team failed to win a single Mountain West Conference game. Her three seasons since include a regular-season MWC co-championship and two appearances in the post-season tournament final, plus an NCAA Tournament victory. This year's team on Monday cracked the Top 25. Her accomplishments don't appear to be flash-in-the-pan, they have a long-term feel about them.

2. Steve Fisher - The only reason why Fisher is second is because Burns recorded her miracle in less time, though it must be said she didn't have as far to go. Fisher in 1999 inherited arguably the worst major college basketball program in the country at SDSU and he, too, struggled out of the gate. Three years later, he had an NCAA Tournament team and after taking a few more seasons to firm up the foundation, his Aztecs are now hoping to add to a three-year run of 20-win seasons. The current team might be his most talented, though growing pains have already been experienced here early in the 2009-10 campaign.

3. Norv Turner - Let's face it, the man didn't have much talent to work with when he led the Raiders or Redskins (I originally wrote "or University of Illinois," a total goof on my part since it was his brother, Ron, who led the Illini). He has had talent in San Diego and has consistently won with the Chargers. Everyone panics in September and breathes a sigh of relief in November and December. It's a great coach that pulls his squad together every year and gets them ready for showtime. When the playoffs come around, Turner wins. If his GM will ever get him a line, he'll take the Bolts to the Super Bowl.

4. John Carroll - Oceanside High School is aiming for a sixth straight Division II football title. Even the greats, like Herb Meyer of El Camino and John Shacklett of Morse, never accomplished that. He's been to the semifinals 15 years in a row. The thing is, until this year, the Pirates have never been loaded with Division 1 college talent. There was like one guy each year, and another one or two for lower college divisions. His players have been good for the prep level, no doubt, and Carroll has never failed to mold them into a powerful team.

5. Rich Hill - There is absolutely no reason why USD should have one of the nation's better baseball programs year-in and year-out. They didn't for decades. All of a sudden, they do, and the reason is the ultra-intense Hill. He recruits pitching and a bunch of gamers who play the game right and he teaches them how to win. That they tend to fall short in post-season is, I think, more a testament to his coaching than anything else. They don't always have the best players, but they might be coached the best. By the way, while a strong recruiting class was dismantled by the June baseball draft, he's bringing in some power arms and a couple pretty nice local players.

6. Jennifer Petrie - The USD women's volleyball coach is amazingly consistent, with eight NCAA Tournament appearances in her nine seasons (she took a year off on maternity leave) and a run of three-straight West Coast Conference titles only snapped this season. And with a second place finish, there's legitimate hopes for a ninth post-season bid this year.

7. Bud Black - No, the Padres really haven't done much in his three seasons except trade away a lot of their good players, so you can't measure his performance by the number of championships or playoff appearances he's made. On the other hand, there's been no downfall from how Bruce Bochy ran the club and the guy with the large noggin is regarded as one of the best in the major leagues. He, like Bochy, is patient with his talent and tends to get the most out of them by the time the season is done. Just this year, he helped the Friars get to within 12 games of the .500 mark after an absolutely rotten start. Not bad.

8. Seamus McFadden - If you're into longevity, you have it here. The USD men's soccer coach has won more than 300 games in 31 years of coaching. The Toreros won an unexpected WCC title this season before falling in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. They've been post-season regulars and advanced to the NCAA championship game in 1992.

9. Tracy McNair - If he were a businessman, he'd be known as a corporate turnaround artist. He led Crawford High School's football team to an unbeaten season in the earlier part of this decade and they were terrible before he arrived and not so good after he left. He's now at Morse, which has gone through coaches almost annually since Shacklett left. There you go, the Tigers made it back into the playoffs.

10. Sam Blalock - The baseball coach has won more than 700 games between Mt. Carmel and Rancho Bernardo high schools, and won several section championships at each school. The would be 'nuff said, but in so doing sent stars like Eric Chavez, nephew Hank Blalock and Cole Hamels, and a few others, into the major leagues.

This is not a perfect list. You can nitpick at the order and there are probably a few coaches of Olympic sports who deserve to be included. I consider that good news. We are in an era in which we are rich in quality coaching.

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The Chargers are back in first place. All is well. Uh, Mr. Cromartie, all is well, right?

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Hoke's Opponents Know What's Coming, Bowl Prospecting

San Diego State's 38-7 loss to Utah Saturday could have been 55-0 or worse if Utes coach Kyle Whittingham didn't let up on the gas. The same could have been said about the 55-12 setback to TCU two weeks ago, if Frogs coach Gary Patterson didn't ease up on the humbled hosts.

SDSU was completely out-classed and uncompetitive in both games and, looking back on it, some of those nice things people seemed to think the Aztecs did against the Frogs weren't worth much.

So it's interesting that Whittingham and Patterson didn't run up the score on SDSU counterpart Brady Hoke. It's nothing that bothered them, or other opposing coaches, the past few years when Chuck Long patrolled the sideline. The question is why the change?

The answer, I think, hope and pray, is a good one. This game is all about recruiting when you're at SDSU's level and trying to build your program back up. You have to get players who can handle the rigors of Division 1 football. Hoke clearly doesn't have them now. They rolled to a big lead over Wyoming last week, lost their edge, and haven't recovered. They just don't have the ability to overcome such a loss of momentum.

Hoke and his minions have been recruiting like crazy while this season has unfolded, and they've received commitments from a number of good players. Unlike Long, they're getting players who have stars next to their names as awarded by the online recruiting services and, unlike predecessor Tom Craft, those quality athletes might actually have a chance to academically qualify.

Whittingham sees what's happening and Patterson did before him. They can see the Aztecs program building and they're not about to anger the capricious gridiron gods. For those who are doubting the team's improvement, I understand. Four wins isn't a whole lot based on the cupcake-filled non-conference schedule and the fact that the bottom has fallen out of the top-heavy Mountain West Conference. No doubt that holding off Wyoming would have left SDSU only a win at weak UNLV from a long-awaited bowl berth -- instead of eliminated as they are now. It's just going to take time, a couple of years.

Hoke is bringing players here, both quality high school recruits and junior college transfers. There's also rumors of some Division 1 transfers coming here. Whittingham and Patterson are, I think, good indicators of what is taking place within the SDSU program.

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With Saturday's football over, here's my view of the possible entries for the two local post-season games.

Holiday Bowl

Pac-10: Oregon and Oregon State play Thursday, Dec. 3 and they're atop the Pac-10. Winner plays in Pasadena and loser comes to San Diego. BTW, Arizona fans now know how SDSU fans feel, but worse. I've never seen so many people count their chickens so early.

Big 12: I still think it's Oklahoma State, currently 9-2 before heading to Oklahoma next week. The conference championship pits Texas against Nebraska, and as well as the Huskers are playing, I'd be stunned if they beat the Longhorns. I'd also be shocked if the Cotton Bowl ignored Nebraska's traveling fans who must be excited at turning the corner back into respectability.

Poinsettia Bowl

Mountain West: With TCU a near-certainty for the BCS, the winner of Utah-BYU will go to the Las Vegas Bowl. The Poinsettia Bowl gets the next pick and will take the loser. My bet is BYU comes here.

Pac-10: Seriously muddled. The Poinsettia gets the sixth pick, so go down to a jumble of teams with three conference losses. I'm thinking Cal and Stanford go to higher bowls and either USC, UCLA or Arizona come here. Amazing that just a week or two ago it seemed like the Trojans were going to make the Holiday Bowl people happy. And amazing that Arizona was in the driver's seat for the Rose Bowl about 20 minutes before I wrote this. And that the Bruins are even bowl eligible.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Two Cents on Schemmel's Resignation

There's not much more that can be said on Thursday's resignation of San Diego State Athletic Director Jeff Schemmel that hasn't been said. The full truth of what he did, or attempted to do, probably won't come out because of personnel rules and whatever settlement he and the school arrived at.

I'm pretty much on record as not being in his corner, because his actions hurt the reputation of the university, and this latest issue with trying to get reimbursed for a trip to have an affair with a married woman was just that, the latest. There were other things, and he came from Minnesota when that school was under a cloud.

I'd rather point to the future. The potential candidates -- the short list -- are strong. You have USD Athletic Director Ky Snyder, an SDSU alumnus who has done well at Alcala Park and has plenty of experience in local and national sports circles.

I personally am very impressed with Schemmel's assistant, Don Oberhelmen, who did a fine job today under stressful circumstances and represents the school well. He's young and might stay in place for a decade if hired.

I will also renew my call to consider Steve Fisher, who is gold for this university. No one represents the school better. Many head coaches of major sports double as ADs, particularly if they have trustworthy longtime assistants, like Brian Dutcher. Remember, they want someone new by March 1, after which Fisher will only have about a month's worth of games left.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Greatest Chargers, Hoops Reality for SDSU and USD

So the fans vote of the greatest Chargers is in, and it's a pretty solid list for a team that's never won a Super Bowl -- and only been to one. I'd put these guys up against a lot of other teams.

My picks are only a slight variation.

Quarterback: Dan Fouts, though Philip Rivers might pass him by the time he's done.

Running back: LaDainian Tomlinson has done the most for the Bolts and will be in the Hall of Fame but Chuck Muncie might have been better.

Receiver: Lance Alworth and Charlie Joiner.

Tight End: Kellen Winslow, but Antonio Gates if he gets healthy might have more staying power.

Offensive line: Ron Mix, Russ Washington, Ed White and Don Macek were among the best in the NFL ever.

Defensive line: Jamal Williams is the best, easily. Fred Dean did his best work for the 49ers.

Linebacker: Junior Seau by a mile.

Defensive backs: same with Gill Byrd.

Punter: Mike Scifres gets the very close nod over Darren Bennett for consistency.

Placekicker:
John Carney goes down as one of the NFL's greatest.

Coach: Not Norv? Come on! Bobby Ross got the Bolts to the Super Bowl, but Don Coryell was around for longer, built the franchise and would have made the 1982 Super Bowl but for frigid conditions in Cincinnati in the AFC championship game. And if they'd made it, they would have crushed the 49ers.

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BTW, how does 9-3 sound? If the Bolts can survive the road trip in Denver, the next two games are against truly pathetic franchises, the Chiefs and the Browns. I heard someone on TV say the Browns have scored something like five offensive touchdowns in their last 30 games. That can't be correct, can it? Even if the specific numbers are off, the point is they really suck offensively.

Dec. 13, they play at Dallas. This has been a yo-yo year for America's team, snicker, but there's no denying their talent.

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Boy, college basketball is not an easy game. After successful openers, both San Diego State and USD men's teams fell on the road to pretty decent clubs in Northern California.

SDSU couldn't buy a hoop in the early-going and lost by 22 at St. Mary's. Yes, the Aztecs have talent. The question is whether we fans have patience. It will take time for all the new guys to mesh. Tyrone Shelley and Billy White were clearly hobbled by their injuries, so it might be a while before they're in game shape. Look for a couple more non-conference setbacks before they get things rolling.

USD looked so good against Stanford with contributing big men and Brandon Johnson looking like his old self. At Pacific, the big men added next to nothing and Johnson played just 20 minutes after hurting a hamstring. The Toreros are going to struggle against physical opponents this season.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Winners, Losers of the Weekend

The winners and losers, as I see them, in an up and down weekend of athletics in San Diego:

Winner: Norv Turner. Remember the haters? They've crawled back into the woodwork as the Charges have climbed into a first place tie with the Broncos in the AFC West. A showdown in Denver looms next week.

Loser: Brady Hoke. The bloom came off the rose in the fourth quarter of San Diego State's horrifying collapse against Wyoming. The guy is a decent upgrade as a football coach but some of the blame for what happened in the final 15 belongs to him and his staff.

Winner: Bill Grier. The USD men's basketball team not only beat Stanford in the Toreros opener, but stomped on them. For a WCC team to pull away late over a Pac-10 team is a surprise, and it looks like he may have solved some issues inside.

Loser: Mark Haines. As good a trainer as he is for the SDSU men's hoops squad, he can't wave a wand and make Tim Shelton's knees healthy as if nothing ever happened, or cure Tyrone Shelley's painful toe. Let's hope he gets Billy White back on the floor pain-free quickly.

Winner: LT. It may not have been vintage, but it was as close as we've come in a while.

Loser: Chargers secondary. That was 433 yards passing and 22 first downs through the air for the Eagles' Donovan McNabb. Yeah, he had to throw all the time in a losing effort, but someone make a stop.

Winner:
DJ Gay. The Aztecs men need him to step up at the point to be successful, and he did so with his leadership in the second half of the opening victory over UC San Diego. Now it'll really get tough in the St. Mary's bandbox.

Loser: SDSU men's soccer. Three minutes after the PA announcer says they lead highly ranked UCLA in the 80th minute, they give up a tying goal. They've blown a couple leads late in games this season. They should still get an NCAA at-large bid.

Winner:
Jim Harbaugh. The could-have-been Aztecs head coach is performing miracles at Stanford.

Loser: Dennis Erickson. The coach some people wanted for the Aztecs is finding his seat getting warm at Arizona State.

Winner: Poinsettia Bowl. Suddenly looking like BYU or Utah vs USC or Cal.

Loser: Holiday Bowl. USC is dropping like a rock and dull Oklahoma State is near certain to return as the Big 12 rep.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Great Season of College Hoops Begins

One of the best things about last season's college basketball is that things might be even better this year.

In the 2008-09 season, San Diego State's men went to the NIT Final Four in Madison Square Garden, propelled by a victory over St. Mary's in one of the most exciting moments ever in SDSU athletics; the women won a Mountain West Conference co-championship and hosted the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, defeating De Paul before the home fans in the first game of the Big Dance.

Still, there was room for improvement. The Aztecs men struggled out of the gate with injuries and Lorrenzo Wade's suspension, costing them games against Arizona and Arizona State that likely would have been Ws if at least Wade had been available (vs ASU) and in playing shape (vs UA). They were also passed over for the NCAA Tourney when several major conference also-rans won post-season tournaments, and the BCS takeover of college basketball became apparent. The women didn't win the league outright, fell short in the MWC Tournament, and the second round NCAA loss to Stanford showed just how far the program still had to travel to reach national prominence.

Things also could have been better because all the above writing is about SDSU, not the University of San Diego. The Toreros men were hampered by an Achilles tendon tear suffered by star G Brandon Johnson and, despite wins over Nevada, Oregon and Mississippi State, never built any consistency before finishing 16-16 and 6-8 in the West Coast Conference. The women were 19-13 and beat State, but no one else of note and were just 7-7 in the WCC.

Absolutely, there's room for improvement.

SDSU Men: It says a lot for the credibility coach Steve Fisher has built for his program that a team losing five important seniors should be better because recruiting has gone so well. The Aztecs might have a legitimate center in transfer Brian Carwell for the first time since Mike Mackell, have a freshman in Kawhi Leonard who might become one of the school's all-time greats, a proven scorer in Tyrone Shelley, an intimidating shot blocker and rebounder in Malcolm Thomas and a point guard of the future in Chase Tapley. Oh, those are just the new guys. Returning forwards Billy White and Tim Shelton are among the best in the Mountain West, and DJ Gay appears comfortable running the point. It might take some time to blend the mix together, but watch out when that happens. The key stretch is in December when they play Arizona, Arizona State and Drake, the latter two on the road. Fisher is now having trouble finding non-conference opponents, so those are the only chances for quality wins before MWC play begins.

SDSU Women: Coach Beth Burns and her Lady Aztecs aren't shy, that's for sure. In the first month alone they play Arizona, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and South Carolina. At least we'll know early whether they deserve to be ranked. G Jene Morris leads the team again, and look for Paris Johnson to blossom now that she has inside help from transfer Jessika Bradley. F Allison Duffy returns from last year's suspension and is joined by her younger, and maybe more talented, sister, Ashley. Another sister act, Quenese and Coco Davis, is also back. I'm not here to sell tickets, but seriously, go see this team, which might be the most nationally competitive Aztecs in any sport since the 1977 football squad or the 1973 national volleyball champions. The only question this year is just how high they will climb.

USD Men: A second surgery for Johnson during the summer means he probably won't be at full speed until the conference season, bad news with a tough non-conference schedule ahead. The Toreros open with Stanford Friday at the Jenny Craig Pavilion, and then go play Pacific in Stockton where they're very hard to beat, open against Oklahoma in the Great Alaska Shootout, host SDSU, New Mexico and Mississippi State and take on mid-major power Southern Illinois in Vegas. While Johnson returns, inside strength leaves with forwards Gyno Pomare and Rob Jones, though the latter transferred out and might be addition by subtraction. There are some young guys waiting in the wings, but I don't know if even the prediction of sixth place in the WCC holds water for coach Bill Grier's boys this season.

USD Women: Return pretty good players in PG Dominique Conners, F Sam Child and F Morgan Henderson, and add freshman Danesia Williamson, a three-time All-CIF guard from Mt. Miguel HS. The non-conference schedule shouldn't be bad. The biggest issue could be replacing dominant C Amber Sprague. If the starting lineup in the exhibition win over San Diego Christian is any indication, coach Cindy Fisher is going with a three-forward lineup that goes 6-1, 6-1, 6-0. They're projected for sixth place in the WCC. Look for Fisher's coaching to get them a notch or two higher.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Tyler, Gonzalez and Chargers Mid-Season Grades

The New York Times News Service article on former Eastlake and San Diego high schools basketball star Jeremy Tyler Tuesday (love that new SignonSanDiego Web site, groan, can't even find a link now), which was splashed on the front page of Yahoo! on Monday, is certainly a cautionary tale about sending a child into a man's world literally on the other side of the earth.

Tyler, if the article is accurate, appears about as mature as I was at that age, or you were (are). Which is to say, not very. But that's okay. The one thing sadly missing from the entire Tyler tale is he is missing out on his childhood and the personal growth process that comes with it. The poor guy should be just a kid enjoying his senior year of high school without a bunch of adults pushing him to be something now that he won't be for a few years.

The article makes it seem like the problem is Jeremy Tyler. It's not. The problem is the adults who surround him, constantly pushing him faster and faster toward imagined millions until he now obviously believes it all himself. Because the adults are saying the dream is true, Tyler has fully bought in to the fantasy long before he can make it a reality.

You can't punish a teenager for being immature, especially when he's alone in a foreign country. Immature is what he is supposed to be.

A couple other thoughts:

-- the Israeli coaches and teammates say the kid can't play and knows very little about the game. That's why he left San Diego, because he wasn't going to get better here. The high school basketball coaching and competition here just isn't that great. We have some wonderful exceptions here, of course, but Tyler's shortcomings are the exact reason why he went somewhere else, so he could learn. No surprise.

-- Tyler's unwillingness to work to improve his game, if the article is correct, could fill several posts in itself. Inattention to fundamentals is what constantly costs Americans in international competition, but you've heard all that before. Now couple that with Obama's America, where the expectation that everything should just be handed to us has come to fruition, and you end up with not just Jeremy Tyler, but millions of Jeremy Tylers. Thankfully, there are millions of others, youth and adults, who have not abandoned the work ethic, but the reason why our nation is in some trouble is that too many have slid down the easy path.

My bet is the kid will come home after the season, reflect, and go back to Haifa next year as a much-improved player.

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The biggest off-season question in local baseball circles is whether the Padres will hold onto 1B Adrian Gonzalez or trade him for prospects. The problem is that he'll command a hefty salary after next year, more than the Friars can afford, so do they trade him now for a pile of prospects, send him packing in a more hasty trading deadline deal next summer, or let him go free agent after 2010 in exchange for a first round compensatory draft pick?

The discussion over Gonzalez' fate arose after the team sent a season-ticket brochure that didn't include the picture of their most-marketable player. New GM Jed Hoyer might be tempted to work a trade since he tried to obtain him for his previous employer, the Red Sox, a franchise brimming with young talent. Plus, the Padres have a ready-made replacement in slugger Kyle Blanks.

It will all come down to Hoyer's assessment of the Padres personnel.

My own opinion is they have a pretty good foundation from which to build from. They aren't the contenders former GM Kevin Towers believes them to be, but neither do they need an infusion of young prospects -- more foundation. They need to plug in actual star players at a few weak spots: CF and the starting rotation, and then they might actually be competitive in the NL West. You don't build up by sending out the face of the franchise.

The most recent example of a stars-for-prospects trade was P Jake Peavy to the White Sox. The kids they received in return were kinda, sorta, okay. Nothing special. Unfortunately, nothing special won't get them anywhere in the NL West race.

It'll be interesting to see if Hoyer views the Padres the way I do. I'm sure he won't see them as Towers did -- it's partly why he was let go. However, if he pulls the trigger on a Gonzalez-for-prospects trade, it will be because he doesn't think there is much talent here at all.

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Mid-season grades for the various Chargers units:

Quarterback: A.
Philip Rivers is among the top five in the NFL.

Running Back: B.
Few yards, but there aren't holes. Sproles and Hester have made great plays, on offense and special teams, that have won games.

Receivers: A.
Vincent Jackson is third in receiving yards for a reason. Malcolm Floyd made my preseason prediction of a breakthrough a winner.

Offensive Line: D.
Can't push a chair across the floor, but pass blocking has improved a bit.

Defensive Line: C.
Still not strong vs. the run, but not getting blown off the ball anymore. The LBs are now getting to the QB, so the line has to be doing something right in tying up opposing pass blockers.

Linebackers: C.
Still struggling overall, but pass rush has improved as Shawne Merriman gets back in the swing of things.

Defensive Backs:
C-minus. An F a few weeks ago, maybe, but improved heat on opposing passers helps.

Kickers: A.
Not much needs to be said.

Coaching: B.
Steady and unspectacular, and again held the team together following a rough start. A 5-3 record and a deficit of only one game in the AFC West has them sitting pretty.

Comparing the Chargers and Broncos schedules over the next few weeks, I think there's a very good chance the Bolts will be in first place by the time we send our relatives home on Thanksgiving night.

Sunday, November 08, 2009

Prediction Saved With Seconds to Spare

That's why I rarely make predictions. If Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson don't put together a brilliant two-minute drill to pull out a 21-20 victory over the New York Giants Sunday, then my prediction of a Chargers win becomes a big-time dud.

I'll be honest. I really thought the Chargers were going to manhandle them, and was surprised to see U-T beat writer Kevin Acee pick the Giants to beat the Bolts handily. Must have been a lonely flight home for him.

As it was, it took some mistakes by the Giants for the Chargers to even be in a position for the late rally, including a mishandled field goal and an offensive holding call at the Bolts 4-yard line late in the fourth quarter -- a drive that ended with a FG, not a TD that could have put the game away.

A couple of things were disquieting:

-- the Chargers gained just 34 yards on the ground. They run about as well as SDSU.

-- Eli Manning was allowed to complete all but 8 of his 33 passes, though his yardage total wasn't too exciting.

-- The Giants controlled the ball for nearly 38 minutes.

At 5-3, the Bolts are still in pretty decent shape for the playoffs. Check the current standings in the AFC. They would be the second wildcard team if the season ended today. If Denver stumbles Monday night, the deficit in the AFC West will close to just one game with a contest still to be played between the teams. Look at the Broncos remaining schedule and you'll think, as I do, that the Chargers still have a strong shot to win the division.

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Less than a week after being released by the Chargers, Chris Chambers caught 2 TD passes for Kansas City in a 24-21 loss to Jacksonville. One went for 54 yards. He had three receptions total.

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Darned if Alex Smith, the former Helix HS quarterback, just can't avoid the killer mistake. Just a couple games after reclaiming the starting job, he goes and throws three picks and fumbles twice in a loss to Tennessee. Two INTs were late in the fourth quarter. This has happened a couple times now. I really want to see the kid succeed, but this just might be his last chance.

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I'd also like to see former USD signal-caller Josh Johnson do well, but after an ineffective couple of starts for Tampa Bay, he lost his job to rookie Josh Freeman, who merely led the Bucs to 38 points in a win over Green Bay. That doesn't bode well. Sad how the two ballyhooed local QBs of the 2008 NFL draft, Johnson and Kevin O'Connell of San Diego State, are both struggling to hang on in The League.

Saturday, November 07, 2009

Aztecs Football Exposed, Schemmel

It takes good football teams to expose your flaws, and TCU is a really good team that exposed a lot of issues with San Diego State in Saturday's 55-12 win. The result is essentially meaningless, unless you really thought the Aztecs had a chance to upset a Horned Frogs team that right now is playing as well as any in the country. SDSU remains on track to go to its first bowl game in 11 years if they take care of business in its two remaining winnable games: Wyoming next Saturday and the Thanksgiving weekend finale at UNLV. That by itself would be a monumental accomplishment.

However, first-year head coach Brady Hoke, his staff and players have a long way to go if they want to reach the upper tier of the Mountain West Conference, where TCU, Utah, BYU and sometimes Air Force reside. A competitive game would have opened some eyes but, alas, that didn't happen.

-- So much talk has been made about how Hoke's staff has changed attitudes for the better, and how they're playing hard every snap of every game. However, this was the first time I've seen this coaching staff bring out a group of Aztecs that were emotionally and mentally unready to play. Penalties and other mistakes out of the gate virtually ended the game before anyone broke a sweat. If this happens again next week, there will be no December reward.

-- The one unit on the field that has not improved over the course of the year, and has maybe regressed, is the defensive line. That's the unit that Hoke coaches directly. A personnel overhaul has been needed here for years. Hoke might want to reconsider whether he is capable of both coaching the DL and the team as a whole.

-- The offensive line loses RT Peter Nelson at LG Ikaika Aken-Moleta at the end of the season. Both have improved substantially over the course of the year and had decent showings against the nation's top defense. I worry greatly that only one of the many young linemen on the Aztecs has impressed, that being Nik Embernate, who unseated Aken-Moleta at RG a month ago.

-- Any winning team needs a good defense, and TCU cruised to 551 yards. It could have been much worse. None of the younger players appear close to making breakthroughs toward stardom. You can say there are some who've played well under the circumstances: being young and in the first year of a new system. That pretty much applies to most of them. But in this year of rotating in something like 20-25 players in what amounts to an audition for future playing time, no one has stood out. I like what I've seen from LB Marcus Yarborough while others are talking up LB Miles Burrus, but neither appears to be a budding star.

I'm not a real naysayer. The win total is double over Chuck Long's last year and the bowl remains a possibility. It's just that TCU showed how far the distance still remains.

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My reaction to the story in the newspaper about SDSU athletic director Jeff Schemmel is to take a wait-and-see approach to the direct issue, but I don't see how he holds his job even if he is cleared. I've read enough court documents to know that when lawyers start requesting evidence, they ask for the world. They want to get their grubbies on every last little thing that might have something to do with their case. In many instances, what they ask for is inconsequential.

Clearly, the lawyers in the divorce proceeding want to know who received money or financial benefits and from whom, making Schemmel's expenses potentially relevant.

The story for us boils down to one major question and one (in college sports vernacular) mid-major query.

The biggie: did an AD drawing a quarter of a million annually from a financially strapped athletic department and university force California taxpayers to pay for his liaisons? If so, he's done. He might have just used the card while traveling and since it was for personal reasons, reimbursed the school. That doesn't look good, considering the circumstances, but is not as bad an offense.

The not-quite-as-biggie: even if Schemmel can produce financial records that clear him of financial wrong-doing, do his actions bring shame upon an honorable institution of higher learning? He wasn't using a university credit card to visit family, for example. Remember how Chuck Long went back to Illinois to see his dying father last year? I wonder if he used a school credit card account that was later reimbursed. People would look upon such a thing much differently because of the nature of the trip.

Even if Schemmel does clear himself of out-and-out wrongdoing, my bet is that question number two results in his undoing. His tenure has resulted in enough black eyes to blind someone.

-- He fired a veteran swimming coach just before she was finally, after years of hard work, given an aquatics facility that would allow her to compete on a more even footing with other schools. Oh, yeah, she was suffering from breast cancer and getting a divorce at the time, and later won a lawsuit against the school.

-- He ignored the recommendation of coaching search guru Chuck Neinas to hire Chuck Long, who might go down as one of the worst selections in the history of sports.

-- He had to be wrestled to the ground by university President Stephen Weber to fire Long despite last season's 2-10 record, a second loss to Cal Poly, and an alleged criminal assault by one player against another.

Schemmel might never have a hair out of place, but his record at State is not admirable, no matter how things work out in his latest problem.

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On this otherwise rough weekend on Montezuma Mesa, the Aztecs women's soccer team won the MWC tournament championship with a 1-0 victory at BYU, completing a rebuilding process several years in the making from still another coaching disaster. Congratulations to coach Mike Friesen and the team. They and USD learn their post-season fates on Monday.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

No Aztecs Support, Chargers Will Win, USC Holiday

With the improvement of San Diego State football this year, it's apparent that San Diego sports fans don't even know they have anything to be apathetic about. That much was apparent when less than 15,000 fans bothered to show up to last Saturday's 23-20 victory over New Mexico. The win put the Aztecs to .500 this late in the season for the first time in years, and to 2-2 in the Mountain West Conference.

There's a lot of very small potatoes in there. A .500 record only gets minor bowl committees and ESPN excited, not fans. The record is courtesy of comeback wins over the winless Lobos and Colorado State, winless in conference play. The Aztecs lost to Idaho which, despite a sparkling 7-2 mark, is still Idaho. They also fell by 19 at UCLA, which is 0-5 in conference, and this is a city that views college football through Pac-10 colored glasses.

So what core fans SDSU has left are excited about Brady Hoke's work, no one else is. Part of it is that the team has been so bad for so long, too many people have moved on with their lives and haven't even noticed that the team is better than the past couple of years. The Halloween scheduling was a problem, but sometimes you have to sell out to the TV gods. And, really, the Aztecs haven't accomplished anything yet. They played UCLA much tougher than the score indicates, but how do you know if you're not paying attention? They played BYU tough, but lopsided home losses to Florida State and TCU destroyed whatever respect that the Cougars were ever accorded.

Now TCU, 8-0 and up to number 4 in one poll -- they should be number 3 -- is coming to town, the highest ranked visitor I can remember since Miami came here in the early-90s ranked first and, I think, third. If more than 25,000 actual fans come out to watch this game, I'll be shocked. How the mighty have fallen? One of those Miami games drew 52,000 and there weren't fireworks. A match between the teams two years earlier attracted 34,000 when SDSU was coming off some lean post-Holiday Bowl times. A crowd of 50,000 came to see UCLA when it was ranked fourth in 1984.

Those are real crowds. But there are other factors that don't involve the state of the football program. The economy means fans are watching their pennies. The sports radio station that broadcasts the Aztecs is beset by low ratings and spent the first two months of the season for all intents and purposes ignoring SDSU football. The San Diego Union-Tribune readership is way down. There simply, as noted earlier this week, is no buzz about SDSU athletics.

If SDSU plays TCU hard this week, or even wins, San Diegans will find out about it and will at least have to make a decision whether to be apathetic. Right now, they don't even know that such a choice might be looming.

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When the Chargers were struggling in losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, I said don't worry about it, they're still on track for the playoffs. The Denver loss put me down one in my game-by-game predictions, but I'm about to get it back.

I generally don't make predictions, but here goes one. I'll stick my neck out. The Bolts will win at New York Sunday. Vincent Jackson and new stud Malcolm Floyd -- told you -- will destroy the Giants battered secondary, and the Shaun-Shawne Show will make life miserable for hobbled QB Eli Manning. The Chargers have their backs against the wall, and have always played strong in such situations under Coach Norv Turner.

If the Giants get back to doing what they do best, pounding the ball behind a real offensive line, things might get dicey. But they won't make as many big plays that score points as the Chargers will, and that's the point of the game, right?

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If the season ended today ... okay, Holiday Bowl redcoats, wake up from your dream. But if it did, the Pac-10 representative for the first time ever will be USC. That means lots of big-money and close-by fans. Guaranteed sell-out no matter how many tickets the Big 12 team sells. I saw recent bowl projections that called for the Trojans vs. Oklahoma State in the Holiday, and BYU vs. Stanford in the Poinsettia. You couldn't do better. Alas, Stanford has to beat one among Oregon, USC, Cal and Notre Dame to come here. It will be tough, but could happen. With Oregon visiting Palo Alto and coming off last week's scintillating rout of 'SC, I smell a major upset coming. Not an official prediction, mind you, but stay tuned.

Sunday, November 01, 2009

Hoke Finds Building Team Easier Than Attracting Fans

Brady Hoke in his first season has found that winning football games and ridding a program of its losing ways are much easier than putting fannies in seats at Qualcomm Stadium.

In a scheduling nightmare, his San Diego State team hosted New Mexico at 4:30 pm on Halloween. Add in a winless opponent, a New Mexico team that never draws well on the coast and years of local apathy, and there was never a chance that $1 hot dogs were going to attract anyone to the game. About 60,000 fans at The Q were dressed as empty blue seats for Halloween.

The previous home game, two weeks ago vs BYU, might as well have been held in the Mormon Temple in La Jolla.

Meanwhile, Hoke has the Aztecs at 4-4, two winnable games away from a minor bowl bid, which would be a major accomplishment considering how bad the program was when he took over. No doubt there's a serious disconnect between the football program and San Diego County sports fans.

There is no question that apathy toward the Aztecs has hit a low. I don't recall any kind of general buzz in the community about Aztecs football since Marshall Faulk. That's when crowds of 40,000 to 50,000 regularly showed up in expectation that SDSU was just about to hit the big time, but managed to lose nearly every game that could put the school on the gridiron map and often looked terribly inept in doing so. The end of the era of Coach Al Luginbill destroyed any credibility San Diego State once had in the community at-large. You just don't walk into a given conversation and discuss the ins and outs of Aztecs football.

The rebuilding of SDSU football will be a lot like coming out of a recession. Usually we're out of an economic downturn before we realize it. Only when we take notice do companies begin hiring again, which is why job growth always tails the financial upturn. In the case of Aztecs football, the Aztecs might go to one or two bowls before locals realize what's taken place.

The one trouble is that a couple more budget-busting years could put the program on an economic deathwatch, especially considering how poorly the state of California is doing economically. So Hoke doesn't have a whole lot of time to get fans back into the seats.

Here are a few things that can ease the path:

1. Keep winning. Okay, they won't beat TCU next week, but playing them hard and mistake-free would really help.

2. Just in case someone shows up, make sure the parking and concessions people have a clue. They're costing SDSU customers among even the hardcore fans.

3. I don't believe they have ever taken advantage of the Clear Channel radio contract. There should be an SDSU presence across the dial the rest of the season.

4. The marketing staff has to make aggressive use of social media, from Twitter to Facebook to You Tube. Remember that crazy blocked extra point for a touchdown against Southern Utah? I went to You Tube a couple of days later with thoughts of sharing a video on my Facebook page. You guessed it, I didn't find it. My FB friends include a former all-conference lineman, a sports-loving fellow alum and a lot of sports fans who live here in town. They'd have enjoyed it. Instead, their pages just lay there and don't reach out to anyone. I took the Aztecs FB news feed, but you have to go to it to sign up, it doesn't come to you with an invitation. You have to be aggressive.

Right now, there's no reason to go see a game. If the Aztecs go to a bowl, who cares? Really. Family is more important, so people are opting for things like Halloween and their third cousin's, twice-removed AYSO soccer game. Hey, at least we have perspective. SDSU people have to reach out, grab us and reel us in and, so far, they're not doing so.

What really concerns me is that no one in the past few weeks has mentioned basketball beyond the Lakers starting up. Both the men's and women's teams might be ranked at some point this season, yet there's no buzz there, either. You have both Steve Fisher and Beth Burns begging for fans to come to Viejas Arena, and I'm betting their pleas will go unheard.

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Meb Keflezighi is proof that just because you're down, you're not down for good. Sunday he became the first American man since 1982 to win the New York City marathon. In the three years leading up to 2009, the San Diego High grad has dealt with a broken hip and poor performances, including a 21st in NYC and two non-finishes in London. This year he has two personal bests, including this victory, a win in a half-marathon in San Jose and several first-place finishes at shorter distances. Great comeback for adversity.