Truth will usually come out in the end. It has a funny way of doing that. Sometimes it takes a while to make itself known, but eventually known it will be.
An interesting non-sports analogy about truth: I covered most of the high-profile 2002 story of the murder of Danielle Van Dam by David Westerfield, who was eventually convicted and sentenced to death. At the end of the case, some doubts persisted. It just made no sense that a guy as accomplished as Westerfield would do something like kill a little girl. After the sentencing, the judge released a number of documents that had been sealed under court order. The truth, yes, had come out. Documents the jury never saw proved without a doubt that the jurors had made the correct decision.
Saturday is the moment of truth for the state of San Diego State football and the regime of head coach Chuck Long. How SDSU performs in its 2008 opener against Cal Poly will tell us a lot about whether Long's staff has made reasonable progress over the past two and a half years.
It's become obvious over time that Long's first two seasons have to be looked upon almost as throwaways. There was not that much talent and very little commitment from holdover players recruited by the previous staff. Freshmen who played on defense in 2007 were too small and too overwhelmed. The offensive line wasn't so good and neither were the running backs.
In 2008, Long is out of excuses. There has to be some serious improvement or he his hiring will be labeled as a major bust. Improvement may not come in the form of a winning record and a bowl game. It could come as 6-6, which would be two wins better than last season. Besides, most fans recognize 2009 as the potential breakthrough season. But only if the Aztecs show some ability this year.
I've often written that Long and his staff are awesome Monday through Friday. It's Saturday that bothered me. Now I want to be happy on Saturday or else.
That said, I'm actually rather confident about this year's prospects. Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley looks like another Todd Santos in the making. Santos, remember, set school passing records as a freshman. The receiving corps with Vincent Brown, Darren Mougey and Roberto Wallace will be the best since Tolver-Osgood if they remain healthy. Wallace has been the Aztecs version of Ruben Rivera, a great athlete from Central America who has taken a while to catch on to a US sport. If he succeeds, watch out. The offensive line has been reshuffled to give some redshirt and true freshman time to develop, which will pay off in the future. I still can't say much for the running back corps.
Perhaps most telling in the opener will be the performance of the defense. Vast improvement is expected and needed from these guys. If the Mustangs move on them and score a lot with their triple-option offense, then this could be a long season. Yet, the line has a solid two-deep now, the linebackers have an extra year of experience and so does the secondary that was rebuilt before 2007. DE BJ Williams, LBs Russell Allen and Luke Laologi, both cornerbacks and both safeties have all-star potential. It's getting them there that's the rub.
Special teams will also be critical to watch. There's new legs at punter and placekicker and a returner in Davion Mauldin who is said to have some great moves.
I'm going to remain optimistic and call this one 35-14 for the Aztecs. A little closer will be okay. A lot closer or, heaven forbid, a loss, will be troubling.
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You have to love Chargers LB Shawne Merriman's guts. His judgment, however, leaves a lot to be desired.
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By the way, I'm now blogging about the Mountain West Conference for College Football News at cfn.scout.com.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Time to Sell Padres, SDSU Offensive Line
It's time for John and Becky Moores to sell the Padres. It's time for new ownership and new management.
I've generally been supportive of the current front office team and their long-term plan, as evidenced by many of my posts on this blog, but my patience wore out with this week's trade of P Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
There's several problems with this. First and foremost, Maddux was the just about the only reason to pay to watch this sorry ballclub. After all, the Padres are a business which needs income from fans who attend ballgames. Seeing a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer make one of the final starts of his career would have brought out some fans to Petco Park. Add to that his race to move past Roger Clemens to become the career winningest modern-day pitcher, and you had a real attraction. That team President Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin Towers let such an opportunity slip away makes me doubt their judgment.
Second, the Padres got nothing for him. Two players out of a list of five lower-level prospects. Towers says they like a couple of those prospects. The trouble is, they're in the lower part of the minor leagues, not the higher part. We've seen, sadly, how far the jump is just from AAA to the majors. These guys think they can figure out which A-ball players are going to become major league contributors? Don't think so. If I really thought that this trade would help the Padres in the long-term, I wouldn't be writing this. You don't trade a marketable Hall of Famer for low-level prospects.
Third, as a general rule, you do nothing to help the Dodgers during a pennant race. It doesn't matter whether your own team is in the race or not. You want to disillusion the fans of San Diego County even more than they already are? Help the Dodgers win the NL West. The Dodgers get a Hall of Fame pitcher and give up low-level prospects that are dime-a-dozen. Replacing them is no big deal. The Padres also have to assume most of the more than $2 million left on Maddux' 2008 salary. On a side note, the Dodgers in the past three weeks-plus have received a pair of Hall of Famers for next to nothing. I think this is a scandal that needs to be investigated. You think Major League Baseball and the TV networks are in a panic over the chances of having an Arizona-Tampa Bay World Series?
Anyway, this whole situation, wrapped up in what has become a dreadful 2008 season, casts grave doubts on the ability of Alderson and Towers to operate this ballclub, especially given the Moores divorce situation. Alderson was brought in to improve the minor league situation, but I'm skeptical over whether things have improved. First-round draft picks have been busts. Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne all are just a little above or a little below .500. Nothing special. Mediocre, each of them, and I think we've all just about had it with mediocre except at the major league level, where it was replaced with just plain awful.
In divorces in community property states, the major assets like houses are generally sold with the revenue divided between the former partners. In the Moores' case, their biggest asset is the Padres. They need to dispose of this franchise, the sooner the better.
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San Diego State football is the number one reason why you never assume anything in sports. It appeared that the Aztecs were going into the 2008 season with as many as three redshirt freshmen starting in the offensive line. That was a huge reason why all the preseason prognosticators rated SDSU as seventh or worse in the Mountain West Conference.
Instead, center Tommie Draheim is out until sometime in October with a shoulder injury, left tackle Mike Matamua is likely to miss the season with a foot injury and none of the others of what was a highly regarded class of linemen two years ago were able to claim the right tackle position.
With converted defender Peter Nelson at left tackle, returning starter Trask Iosefa entrenched at center, and Lance Louis set at right tackle -- along with guard Mike Schmidt -- four of the five starting linemen have game experience.
I'm troubled, however, by the apparent inability of the redshirt freshmen to take this offensive line over. That was the plan -- these guys win the jobs and play together for three or four years and have plenty of depth behind them. I understand the injuries. Draheim, however, was listed number one at center only because Iosefa had to iron out his academic issues. The tackle positions, however, were wide open, as was the guard slot on the other side from Schmidt.
It's incredibly difficult for freshmen, even those who redshirted, to come right in and win an offensive line job and perform effectively. It might be the most difficult position in football for a youngster because of the physical and mental demands.
That none of them have overcome the odds to win jobs for the Aug. 30 opener is worrisome. A major part of the reason why SDSU has been shut out of bowls for 10 years is because the offensive line has not been up to snuff. These guys were supposed to be better, supposed to be an improvement over the upperclassmen and the recently departed. They were supposed to take over and actually start blocking some people.
For now, at least, the Aztecs will go with a junior on quarterback Ryan Lindley's blind side who has not played offensive line in college, a senior former walk-on at guard, a game but too-small center, a junior making his first start and a senior who used to be a tight end and became a guard after injuries.
I worry not only that this scenario will lead to another ineffective offensive line this fall, but will result in Coach Chuck Long and his staff being back at square one at this time next year. Aztecs fans have been psyching up for 2009 like they have a two-week Mediterranean cruise or something. If the blockers are a bunch of newbies again, next year could be as enjoyable as still another cold bath.
I've generally been supportive of the current front office team and their long-term plan, as evidenced by many of my posts on this blog, but my patience wore out with this week's trade of P Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
There's several problems with this. First and foremost, Maddux was the just about the only reason to pay to watch this sorry ballclub. After all, the Padres are a business which needs income from fans who attend ballgames. Seeing a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer make one of the final starts of his career would have brought out some fans to Petco Park. Add to that his race to move past Roger Clemens to become the career winningest modern-day pitcher, and you had a real attraction. That team President Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin Towers let such an opportunity slip away makes me doubt their judgment.
Second, the Padres got nothing for him. Two players out of a list of five lower-level prospects. Towers says they like a couple of those prospects. The trouble is, they're in the lower part of the minor leagues, not the higher part. We've seen, sadly, how far the jump is just from AAA to the majors. These guys think they can figure out which A-ball players are going to become major league contributors? Don't think so. If I really thought that this trade would help the Padres in the long-term, I wouldn't be writing this. You don't trade a marketable Hall of Famer for low-level prospects.
Third, as a general rule, you do nothing to help the Dodgers during a pennant race. It doesn't matter whether your own team is in the race or not. You want to disillusion the fans of San Diego County even more than they already are? Help the Dodgers win the NL West. The Dodgers get a Hall of Fame pitcher and give up low-level prospects that are dime-a-dozen. Replacing them is no big deal. The Padres also have to assume most of the more than $2 million left on Maddux' 2008 salary. On a side note, the Dodgers in the past three weeks-plus have received a pair of Hall of Famers for next to nothing. I think this is a scandal that needs to be investigated. You think Major League Baseball and the TV networks are in a panic over the chances of having an Arizona-Tampa Bay World Series?
Anyway, this whole situation, wrapped up in what has become a dreadful 2008 season, casts grave doubts on the ability of Alderson and Towers to operate this ballclub, especially given the Moores divorce situation. Alderson was brought in to improve the minor league situation, but I'm skeptical over whether things have improved. First-round draft picks have been busts. Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne all are just a little above or a little below .500. Nothing special. Mediocre, each of them, and I think we've all just about had it with mediocre except at the major league level, where it was replaced with just plain awful.
In divorces in community property states, the major assets like houses are generally sold with the revenue divided between the former partners. In the Moores' case, their biggest asset is the Padres. They need to dispose of this franchise, the sooner the better.
---
San Diego State football is the number one reason why you never assume anything in sports. It appeared that the Aztecs were going into the 2008 season with as many as three redshirt freshmen starting in the offensive line. That was a huge reason why all the preseason prognosticators rated SDSU as seventh or worse in the Mountain West Conference.
Instead, center Tommie Draheim is out until sometime in October with a shoulder injury, left tackle Mike Matamua is likely to miss the season with a foot injury and none of the others of what was a highly regarded class of linemen two years ago were able to claim the right tackle position.
With converted defender Peter Nelson at left tackle, returning starter Trask Iosefa entrenched at center, and Lance Louis set at right tackle -- along with guard Mike Schmidt -- four of the five starting linemen have game experience.
I'm troubled, however, by the apparent inability of the redshirt freshmen to take this offensive line over. That was the plan -- these guys win the jobs and play together for three or four years and have plenty of depth behind them. I understand the injuries. Draheim, however, was listed number one at center only because Iosefa had to iron out his academic issues. The tackle positions, however, were wide open, as was the guard slot on the other side from Schmidt.
It's incredibly difficult for freshmen, even those who redshirted, to come right in and win an offensive line job and perform effectively. It might be the most difficult position in football for a youngster because of the physical and mental demands.
That none of them have overcome the odds to win jobs for the Aug. 30 opener is worrisome. A major part of the reason why SDSU has been shut out of bowls for 10 years is because the offensive line has not been up to snuff. These guys were supposed to be better, supposed to be an improvement over the upperclassmen and the recently departed. They were supposed to take over and actually start blocking some people.
For now, at least, the Aztecs will go with a junior on quarterback Ryan Lindley's blind side who has not played offensive line in college, a senior former walk-on at guard, a game but too-small center, a junior making his first start and a senior who used to be a tight end and became a guard after injuries.
I worry not only that this scenario will lead to another ineffective offensive line this fall, but will result in Coach Chuck Long and his staff being back at square one at this time next year. Aztecs fans have been psyching up for 2009 like they have a two-week Mediterranean cruise or something. If the blockers are a bunch of newbies again, next year could be as enjoyable as still another cold bath.
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