An angry Padres' General Manager Kevin Towers threatened to make wholesale changes to the roster after yet another loss Monday night as several players passed by where he was talking to reporters.
I would bet that part of this was a ploy to motivate the players -- make them worry about their jobs -- or that they'd have to spend the summer in Cincinnati rather than Southern California. If not, then maybe wholesale changes are really coming.
Here's my analysis for what that means.
First, as always for a team considering roster changes, you have to list the untouchables. I count three: Jake Peavy, Chris Young and -- for sentimental reasons only -- Trevor Hoffman.
Second, the players you'd rather not lose if you don't have to are Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and maybe Shawn Estes. You don't get better by losing your young talent in the first two instances. In the latter, Estes has gone through so much in the past two years as a Padres property that it would be nice for him to get his payoff with the team that stayed with him.
Finally, the bubble, the players you'd rather not lose but very well might are Heath Bell and Khalil Greene. Sure, Bell has struggled this season after throwing a ton of innings in 2007 but he's better than anyone else in the bullpen. Teams aiming for a pennant race will love a right-handed setup man who has the ability to close when called upon. Greene's mental approach -- by far his biggest problem in my book -- could change outside Petco Park so he would be tantalizing to a ballclub in a pennant race with needs at short.
Everyone else, including minor leaguer Chase Headley, is up for grabs. My bet is that only those listed above, plus a still sometimes effective Greg Maddux and maybe, maybe, Randy Wolf, would return someone worth having.
The Padres front office really needs to keep their eyes on the ball, their long-term plan to rebuild the organization top to bottom. No sense trading minor league talent for a major leaguer to help in this lost cause of a season. I'd much rather see Towers package a couple big leaguers for a quality minor league prospect.
With the Padres being set for the future at the top of the rotation, I'd like to see Towers acquire a young pitcher with number three starter potential, and a couple of position prospects.
The playoffs were never in the cards this season, though I don't think anyone outside radio talk show host Lee Hamilton -- let's give credit where it's due -- foresaw how bad things would get. Towers and the rest of the front office were blindsided, that we know. I just hope that all the losing doesn't force any desperation moves.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Friday, May 16, 2008
XTRA 1360 Disappoints in Ratings
All you need to know about the failure of XTRA Sports AM-1360 to score in the winter Arbitron ratings (as noted in The San Diego Union-Tribune, second item) can be found on the station's Web page, which is xtrasports1360.com
First is the title, which includes the number 1360. Generally, anything to the right of 1200 on the AM dial is considered to be a graveyard. Because of physics, signals are weaker the higher you go in frequency. So stronger stations migrate down the dial toward 600 (very strong KOGO), and 760 (oft-strong KFMB). It's why you could hear the old XTRA 690 "from Baja to the Canadian Rockies" but can't listen to the new XTRA in Rancho Bernardo.
Actually, I'm being conservative in calling everything to the right of 1200 a graveyard. KNX 1070 in Los Angeles is the only major 4-digit station I can think of off-hand.
Second, look at the front page of the site. The centerpiece rotates promotions for the Dave & Jeff morning show that includes NBA and NHL players -- leagues in which San Diego is not represented -- a Dallas Cowboy and a baseball player whom I think is wearing a uniform of the Baltimore Orioles. Then comes the Babe of the Day and an NBA playoff bracket.
Elsewhere on the front page are national sports headlines, links to non-sports features like Angelina Jolie admitting that she's having twins, a link to a page of national baseball stories, links to has-been rock groups like Def Leppard and Dokken and a link to photographs of young women who've taken digital photographs of themselves in various states of undress.
One look at this page and you immediately get the idea that these guys aren't exactly serious about local sports.
Go deeper into the Web pages of the hosts and only a couple comments were actually posted this week. One or two on the Padres. One apologizes for not updating recently and states that he hopes to update once a week. That was posted April 7 -- his most recent post.
Now, they're much better on the air than the Web site reflects and the ratings shutout demonstrates. The weak signal and Clear Channel's lack of promotion is killing them. I've met and like Jeff Dotseth, Mike Costa, Craig Elsten and Brian Wilson -- someone who interned for me when he was in college and for whom I hope nothing but the best. Things aren't working out as they are now, that's for sure. One of the easiest and least expensive ways to attract an audience will be actually having some local sports information on the station's Web site.
---
There is a major outside factor working against XTRA, and 1090 which fell in the winter book, and ESPN Radio, which I'm not sure has ever made the cut. That's a lack of compelling local sports stories out there. The winter book basically covers San Diego State men's basketball a team which performed well below expectations. People are generally satisfied with the Chargers. The Padres stink. No one cares about Aztecs football anymore.
By comparison, when I ran SanDiegoSportsTown.com, my cup runneth over in great stories at the pro, college and high school levels. There are still some interesting things going on, like the Torrey Pines swimmers who have a shot at the Olympics and the SDSU softball team, but nothing you can base an entire sports radio station on.
The thing that could save XTRA would be a big SDSU football season, but that's not likely until the fall of 2009. By then, it could be too late.
---
Funniest statement of the week: Padres manager Bud Black offering so much praise for Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster. No, Bud, your team would struggle at the plate in AAA.
First is the title, which includes the number 1360. Generally, anything to the right of 1200 on the AM dial is considered to be a graveyard. Because of physics, signals are weaker the higher you go in frequency. So stronger stations migrate down the dial toward 600 (very strong KOGO), and 760 (oft-strong KFMB). It's why you could hear the old XTRA 690 "from Baja to the Canadian Rockies" but can't listen to the new XTRA in Rancho Bernardo.
Actually, I'm being conservative in calling everything to the right of 1200 a graveyard. KNX 1070 in Los Angeles is the only major 4-digit station I can think of off-hand.
Second, look at the front page of the site. The centerpiece rotates promotions for the Dave & Jeff morning show that includes NBA and NHL players -- leagues in which San Diego is not represented -- a Dallas Cowboy and a baseball player whom I think is wearing a uniform of the Baltimore Orioles. Then comes the Babe of the Day and an NBA playoff bracket.
Elsewhere on the front page are national sports headlines, links to non-sports features like Angelina Jolie admitting that she's having twins, a link to a page of national baseball stories, links to has-been rock groups like Def Leppard and Dokken and a link to photographs of young women who've taken digital photographs of themselves in various states of undress.
One look at this page and you immediately get the idea that these guys aren't exactly serious about local sports.
Go deeper into the Web pages of the hosts and only a couple comments were actually posted this week. One or two on the Padres. One apologizes for not updating recently and states that he hopes to update once a week. That was posted April 7 -- his most recent post.
Now, they're much better on the air than the Web site reflects and the ratings shutout demonstrates. The weak signal and Clear Channel's lack of promotion is killing them. I've met and like Jeff Dotseth, Mike Costa, Craig Elsten and Brian Wilson -- someone who interned for me when he was in college and for whom I hope nothing but the best. Things aren't working out as they are now, that's for sure. One of the easiest and least expensive ways to attract an audience will be actually having some local sports information on the station's Web site.
---
There is a major outside factor working against XTRA, and 1090 which fell in the winter book, and ESPN Radio, which I'm not sure has ever made the cut. That's a lack of compelling local sports stories out there. The winter book basically covers San Diego State men's basketball a team which performed well below expectations. People are generally satisfied with the Chargers. The Padres stink. No one cares about Aztecs football anymore.
By comparison, when I ran SanDiegoSportsTown.com, my cup runneth over in great stories at the pro, college and high school levels. There are still some interesting things going on, like the Torrey Pines swimmers who have a shot at the Olympics and the SDSU softball team, but nothing you can base an entire sports radio station on.
The thing that could save XTRA would be a big SDSU football season, but that's not likely until the fall of 2009. By then, it could be too late.
---
Funniest statement of the week: Padres manager Bud Black offering so much praise for Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster. No, Bud, your team would struggle at the plate in AAA.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Trade The Padres Have to Make
While I've mentioned that the Padres should and probably will keep their roster moves to a minimum, there is one trade that I think needs to be made. They need to acquire Tony Gwynn Jr. from Milwaukee.
Gwynn has been unable to bust into an outfield of Mike Cameron, Corey Hart and converted 3B Ben Braun in Milwaukee and has just come off the disabled list. He's hitting .304 in limited action this season after two straight .260 campaigns. He can run and play defense, which is desperately needed at Petco Park. Put him at the top of the lineup, move Jody Gerut to LF and then maybe you have something that might work. It's at least worth trying.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee's staff ERA is in the bottom quarter of all major league baseball teams and they haven't collected a win from a starter other than Ben Sheets since the first week of the season. Eric Gagne, who we'll address in a second, has blown several save opportunities. The Padres can give up Justin Germano or Randy Wolf without too much pain, or Shawn Estes or Wilfredo Ledezma.
The timing is also good for two other reasons:
1. The Padres plan to send Callix Crabbe to the minors early this week. As a Rule V guy, he has to be offered back to Milwaukee first, so the Padres plan to work out a deal. Padres get Gwynn and keep Crabbe, Brewers get a pitcher or two.
2. Weekday attendance is way down and fans are either sniping at the Padres or laughing at them. Neither one is good. Bringing Gwynn home would be a feel-good move as well as a smart baseball play.
---
Luke Carlin. The Padres call him up from the minors and stick him behind the plate. They win twice. Keep him there. The guy knows how to play.
I like Gerut, too. Seems more comfortable after his AAA stint.
---
Roger Clemens is the poster boy for the baseball steroids controversy and that's fine. I have no idea whom to believe so I'll wait for the evidence to come out.
The issue that affected us more directly as Padres fans is Eric Gagne, who if he's not the poster child, should have a small insert of his bespectacled face on a lower corner of Clemens' leg or something. In 2002, Gagne went from average starter to spectacular closer, saving 52, 55, and 45 games in consecutive seasons as the Dodgers placed third, second and first in the National League West. The Dodgers collapsed into fourth place in 2005 when he was injured.
I think it's safe to say that since LA won the division in 2004 by only two games over San Francisco, that a fueled-up Gagne was the reason why, so their division title and all records thereof should be stripped. With Barry Bonds in San Francisco, the 2004 NL West title should either be vacated entirely or handed to the third-place Padres, who were six games back in the standings.
Major League Baseball doesn't do such things, though, as the NCAA and college conferences do. College teams have their titles stripped all the time for rules violations. MLB shrugs, which is why things build up to a point where they get out of hand, like in the steroids controversy.
---
OF Carlos Quentin, the University of San Diego High School graduate now with the Chicago White Sox, is leading the American League with 9 HR and that new on-base percentage plus slugging percentage statistic, and is among the league leaders in runs scored, total bases and RBIs. He also leads in being beaned.
Good news, bad news for Padres fans:
Quentin could have been doing this for the Diamondbacks, but they sent him packing to give Justin Upton his shot. But between the D-backs outfield castoffs, the Padres ended up with Scott Hairston instead of the local kid. Quentin would be doing none of this at Petco, but he's playing better than Hairston.
---
There you go, a San Diego County outfield for the Padres: Quentin-Gwynn-Giles, San Diego-Poway-El Cajon. Oh, well.
Gwynn has been unable to bust into an outfield of Mike Cameron, Corey Hart and converted 3B Ben Braun in Milwaukee and has just come off the disabled list. He's hitting .304 in limited action this season after two straight .260 campaigns. He can run and play defense, which is desperately needed at Petco Park. Put him at the top of the lineup, move Jody Gerut to LF and then maybe you have something that might work. It's at least worth trying.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee's staff ERA is in the bottom quarter of all major league baseball teams and they haven't collected a win from a starter other than Ben Sheets since the first week of the season. Eric Gagne, who we'll address in a second, has blown several save opportunities. The Padres can give up Justin Germano or Randy Wolf without too much pain, or Shawn Estes or Wilfredo Ledezma.
The timing is also good for two other reasons:
1. The Padres plan to send Callix Crabbe to the minors early this week. As a Rule V guy, he has to be offered back to Milwaukee first, so the Padres plan to work out a deal. Padres get Gwynn and keep Crabbe, Brewers get a pitcher or two.
2. Weekday attendance is way down and fans are either sniping at the Padres or laughing at them. Neither one is good. Bringing Gwynn home would be a feel-good move as well as a smart baseball play.
---
Luke Carlin. The Padres call him up from the minors and stick him behind the plate. They win twice. Keep him there. The guy knows how to play.
I like Gerut, too. Seems more comfortable after his AAA stint.
---
Roger Clemens is the poster boy for the baseball steroids controversy and that's fine. I have no idea whom to believe so I'll wait for the evidence to come out.
The issue that affected us more directly as Padres fans is Eric Gagne, who if he's not the poster child, should have a small insert of his bespectacled face on a lower corner of Clemens' leg or something. In 2002, Gagne went from average starter to spectacular closer, saving 52, 55, and 45 games in consecutive seasons as the Dodgers placed third, second and first in the National League West. The Dodgers collapsed into fourth place in 2005 when he was injured.
I think it's safe to say that since LA won the division in 2004 by only two games over San Francisco, that a fueled-up Gagne was the reason why, so their division title and all records thereof should be stripped. With Barry Bonds in San Francisco, the 2004 NL West title should either be vacated entirely or handed to the third-place Padres, who were six games back in the standings.
Major League Baseball doesn't do such things, though, as the NCAA and college conferences do. College teams have their titles stripped all the time for rules violations. MLB shrugs, which is why things build up to a point where they get out of hand, like in the steroids controversy.
---
OF Carlos Quentin, the University of San Diego High School graduate now with the Chicago White Sox, is leading the American League with 9 HR and that new on-base percentage plus slugging percentage statistic, and is among the league leaders in runs scored, total bases and RBIs. He also leads in being beaned.
Good news, bad news for Padres fans:
Quentin could have been doing this for the Diamondbacks, but they sent him packing to give Justin Upton his shot. But between the D-backs outfield castoffs, the Padres ended up with Scott Hairston instead of the local kid. Quentin would be doing none of this at Petco, but he's playing better than Hairston.
---
There you go, a San Diego County outfield for the Padres: Quentin-Gwynn-Giles, San Diego-Poway-El Cajon. Oh, well.
Friday, May 09, 2008
Padres Release Edmonds; Make Room For Chase
The Padres, as expected, cut ties Friday with CF Jim Edmonds, the free agent pickup who was batting just .178 with a home run and 6 RBI through yesterday. They promoted Jody Gerut from AAA Portland, where he was batting .308 with 5 dingers and 18 RBI.
That much you probably already know.
Here's the real news. Clear room in LF for Chase Headley. He's coming soon.
Headley, as mentioned several times in this blog, got off to a rotten start in Portland, coming off a 2007 when he was the AA Player of the Year. Forget the bad start. As recognized in Baseball America, Headley is hitting .516 in May after a 5-for-5 performance Thursday. The hot streak includes 3 doubles and a home run.
The Padres still should keep him in the minor leagues as long as possible, if some sort of Paul McAnulty/Scott Hairston platoon can be productive in left field. Unless those two drop deeper into the tank, the Friars can probably afford to keep him in the minors until the end of May. But June 1 is kind of a marker in baseball, akin to the trading deadline and deadline for playoff rosters. Unless PMac or Hairston go on a tear, look for Headley in left in Petco in time for a June 2 contest against Chicago.
---
All the talk lately has been about the moves the Padres have to make to keep from worsening the majors' worst record. Besides the release of Edmonds and the upcoming promotion of Headley, don't look for much else.
No other minor leaguers appear to merit promotion at this time. Only Kenny Lofton appears enticing as a free agent. And with a lot of baseball teams hovering around the .500 mark, the Padres are the only franchise in the trade market. Even if the trade market was more active, the Friars really have nothing of value to offer. The majors team stinks, and the promising youngsters are either in AA or just hit AAA this season.
The Padres will make some adjustments on the 2008 roster where they can, but will otherwise stick to their long-term plan. That's the correct course given their circumstances. As for me, when do the Chargers and Aztecs preseason camps start?
That much you probably already know.
Here's the real news. Clear room in LF for Chase Headley. He's coming soon.
Headley, as mentioned several times in this blog, got off to a rotten start in Portland, coming off a 2007 when he was the AA Player of the Year. Forget the bad start. As recognized in Baseball America, Headley is hitting .516 in May after a 5-for-5 performance Thursday. The hot streak includes 3 doubles and a home run.
The Padres still should keep him in the minor leagues as long as possible, if some sort of Paul McAnulty/Scott Hairston platoon can be productive in left field. Unless those two drop deeper into the tank, the Friars can probably afford to keep him in the minors until the end of May. But June 1 is kind of a marker in baseball, akin to the trading deadline and deadline for playoff rosters. Unless PMac or Hairston go on a tear, look for Headley in left in Petco in time for a June 2 contest against Chicago.
---
All the talk lately has been about the moves the Padres have to make to keep from worsening the majors' worst record. Besides the release of Edmonds and the upcoming promotion of Headley, don't look for much else.
No other minor leaguers appear to merit promotion at this time. Only Kenny Lofton appears enticing as a free agent. And with a lot of baseball teams hovering around the .500 mark, the Padres are the only franchise in the trade market. Even if the trade market was more active, the Friars really have nothing of value to offer. The majors team stinks, and the promising youngsters are either in AA or just hit AAA this season.
The Padres will make some adjustments on the 2008 roster where they can, but will otherwise stick to their long-term plan. That's the correct course given their circumstances. As for me, when do the Chargers and Aztecs preseason camps start?
Monday, May 05, 2008
Newspaper Pulling No Punches on Padres
Usually news writers are a little cautious in how they characterize their subjects. They'll quote the opinions of others for example, so they don't have to directly say what they think. Not so with The San Diego Union-Tribune's coverage of the Padres this year. Primary beat writer Tom Krasovic thinks the Friars suck and isn't afraid to come right out and say so.
Just today, in a recap of the Padres 10-3 loss at Florida Sunday, he called the team "unathletic" and "slow-footed." There's plenty of other examples of Krasovic directly smacking the Padres. He's also slanting his coverage in items about the Padres getting desperate, about how poor scouting and poor drafting has hurt the franchise, etc.
Now, Krasovic is right on the money with his analysis. I have no problem with that at all. His approach, very direct, is interesting.
His colleague, Chris Jenkins, who covers baseball in general, added to the chorus Sunday by basically saying the Padres were out of the race in the National League West. Of course, it's way too early, but we've seen the Friars and we've seen the Diamondbacks. Okay, the race is all but over.
---
If my memory is correct, the reason why the Padres brass soured on former manager Bruce Bochy was his reluctance to play youngsters, favoring veterans instead.
Fast forward to this season and you can see where the front office placed too much faith in this year's aging former stars. Brian Giles is down to .259, not playing too well defensively and was caught in a rundown -- who'd have thunk? -- on Sunday; Khalil Greene is at .220 with a single home run and Jim Edmonds, likely to go down as one of the Padres worst free agent signings ever is at .177 with just 6 RBI.
Some of the pitchers are just as bad. Glendon Rusch and Trevor Hoffman both have ERAs over 6. Greg Maddux is 0-3 with a no decision in his past four starts in his quest for 350 victories. Yesterday, and in another start he got pounded.
I have a bigger problem with the position players than the pitchers at this point. We've seen Trevor struggle previously and work his way out of it. Maddux can be vulnerable if he's not perfect on every pitch, but usually is masterful. Giles and Edmonds are on the downsides of their career, though, and Greene appears very likely to never fulfill his vast potential, at least not in San Diego.
---
What troubles me about this season is not so much that the 2008 Padres are bad, but that the minor league hot shots expected to replace the current major leaguers over the next two years are stalling out in AAA Portland. The numbers for Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli are about what they were in previous posts. P Wade LeBlanc is also having a hard time.
I'm all for keeping with the long term plan to wait for the minor leaguers to develop, but if they don't in fact develop, the Padres could suck for the next decade.
Just today, in a recap of the Padres 10-3 loss at Florida Sunday, he called the team "unathletic" and "slow-footed." There's plenty of other examples of Krasovic directly smacking the Padres. He's also slanting his coverage in items about the Padres getting desperate, about how poor scouting and poor drafting has hurt the franchise, etc.
Now, Krasovic is right on the money with his analysis. I have no problem with that at all. His approach, very direct, is interesting.
His colleague, Chris Jenkins, who covers baseball in general, added to the chorus Sunday by basically saying the Padres were out of the race in the National League West. Of course, it's way too early, but we've seen the Friars and we've seen the Diamondbacks. Okay, the race is all but over.
---
If my memory is correct, the reason why the Padres brass soured on former manager Bruce Bochy was his reluctance to play youngsters, favoring veterans instead.
Fast forward to this season and you can see where the front office placed too much faith in this year's aging former stars. Brian Giles is down to .259, not playing too well defensively and was caught in a rundown -- who'd have thunk? -- on Sunday; Khalil Greene is at .220 with a single home run and Jim Edmonds, likely to go down as one of the Padres worst free agent signings ever is at .177 with just 6 RBI.
Some of the pitchers are just as bad. Glendon Rusch and Trevor Hoffman both have ERAs over 6. Greg Maddux is 0-3 with a no decision in his past four starts in his quest for 350 victories. Yesterday, and in another start he got pounded.
I have a bigger problem with the position players than the pitchers at this point. We've seen Trevor struggle previously and work his way out of it. Maddux can be vulnerable if he's not perfect on every pitch, but usually is masterful. Giles and Edmonds are on the downsides of their career, though, and Greene appears very likely to never fulfill his vast potential, at least not in San Diego.
---
What troubles me about this season is not so much that the 2008 Padres are bad, but that the minor league hot shots expected to replace the current major leaguers over the next two years are stalling out in AAA Portland. The numbers for Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli are about what they were in previous posts. P Wade LeBlanc is also having a hard time.
I'm all for keeping with the long term plan to wait for the minor leaguers to develop, but if they don't in fact develop, the Padres could suck for the next decade.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)