Monday, November 26, 2007

"One Game at a Time" Good for Teams, Not Fans

Just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed that it was the San Diego State football team with the fortunes going up and the Chargers that were trending down. Now it's just the opposite, with SDSU's defense in a shambles and the Bolts getting off the floor with a dominant victory over Baltimore.

However, our opinions, not just me, but those of fans and other commentators, have too often been based on just one game. We might shriek with delight or scream in frustration, but one game just does not tell the story.

Seriously, is Philip Rivers back to being a Pro Bowl quarterback because he torched an opponent that's now lost five straight games? Is Shawne Merriman back to his "Lights Out" play after taking apart what is annually one of the league's weakest offenses?

Some of the trends that have caused the Chargers problems this season still exist. They can't open up holes for LaDainian Tomlinson, and they still can be run on. Granted, running and stopping the run are the strengths of the Ravens.

What we'll need is another couple of weeks to determine whether the Chargers are looking better. The next two Sundays will see them on the road at Kansas City and Tennessee. The Chiefs are awful and are trying to break in a new QB, but beat the Bolts earlier in the season, here. The Titans have lost three games in a row -- none were close -- after winning three straight. If the Chargers are back to being a playoff caliber team, then they'll have their own three-game winning streak by the end of Dec. 9.

At SDSU, the question of whether the Aztecs football team really has made any progress in coach Chuck Long's second season is a legitimate one. They barely edged-out three Mountain West Conference bottom-feeders and beat a 1-AA (I'll never buy into that new NCAA gobbledy-gook for naming divisions) squad that's had a poor season itself. That's compared to three wins all of last year, all over poor MWC teams, and a loss to a good 1-AA team. In sheer numbers, that's not much better. And with conference champ BYU coming to town for the postponed season finale, the Aztecs are looking at a very dubious one-game improvement over 2006.

But there we were back at mid-season, mostly after the come-from-behind win over Wyoming, looking at how much better things were. Now, not so much. If at all. There's much gnashing of teeth by local college football fans over results of the last two weeks.

The problem with the Aztecs defense is pretty simple to explain. The upperclassmen leaders who are regulars are:

-- Nick Osborn, a senior who is a wonderful kid but never became a top-notch defensive end;
-- Ornan Nwansi, a senior nose tackle who played little last year and has been only a part-timer in 2007;
-- Ray Bass, a senior who was spectacular in relief at times last year after transferring and has prevented a number of disasters this season;
-- Russell Allen, a junior linebacker who is by far the leading tackler on the team and the only regular defender with hopes of playing for pay on Sundays.

Everyone else is a sophomore, redshirt freshman or freshman. I'm not just talking about the remaining seven starters. It's the two-deep, the starters and the reserves who come in to play -- frequently when teams like TCU and Air Force are dominating the time of possession.

That's a big problem that won't be solved in a game or two. It's a year, an off-season, getting older, bigger, stronger, faster. And more experienced. It takes time, and a lot of it.

Football, by its nature of being a once-a-week sport, makes fans and scribes prone to examining each contest with a fine-tooth comb, looking for clues as to what went right or wrong, and signs of how things might go in the upcoming game. Basketball and hockey are less so as they play three or four times per week. Baseball, with six games a week on average, is definitely not.

I've often thought that people involved in football need to take more of a baseball-type of perspective on things. For example, I've previously mentioned that Norv Turner should have put Billy Volek in for Rivers when he struggled. A relief pitcher. That doesn't mean Rivers loses his starting job or can't go in a couple of possessions later in the same game. But sometimes in sports, you just don't have it, so the team will be better off with someone else in that spot.

And the same thing comes when you lose a big game in football. Sometimes you lose. Big shock. Sometimes you win. You can't get too low or too high on either circumstance or you lose sight of the big picture.

The big picture for the Chargers is they aren't as good as they seemed at times in 2006, but they're still a legitimate playoff team. For San Diego State, the quality of the team is in its youth, and that takes time to develop.

---

Most of the buzz over the start of the new sports radio station on 1360 AM has been over the return to the market of Lee Hamilton's afternoon program and the Jeff Dotseth-Dave Palet morning show.

However, the best thing I've heard is the increased airtime given to Craig Elfsten, who has been doing a wonderful job as a pre-game and post-game host for SDSU broadcasts and as a fill-in talk show host. His takes on the games are right on the money, especially last weekend with his "prove it" challenge to the claims of improvement for Aztecs football.

I also met him a couple times at Padres functions back in my old Sandiegosportstown.com days and, let me tell you, this is a guy you wish success upon. I think that's coming now.
--

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Problem With the Chargers? It's Us

If football fans want to know when things began to go south for the Chargers, a good starting point would be this time a year ago. At this point of the 2006 season, the Bolts had scored scintillating comeback victories over the Bengals and Broncos to move to 8-2 and claim sole possession of first place in the AFC West. They would not lose again until that infamous playoff loss to New England.

A year ago. Close to Thanksgiving. That's when we realized just how good the Chargers were, began thinking about a deep playoff run, if not the Super Bowl, and began figuring out just how many players would make it into the Pro Bowl. Turned out it was a lot.

Just before Turkey Day 2007, things are much different. The Bolts are lucky to be 5-5 and tied for first in the division with those same Broncos. If not for two missed field goals by Adam Venitieri of the Colts, they would be a game behind and a long shot for the playoffs that we assumed to be our birthright.

What's gone wrong? After much contemplation I've decided that while there is plenty of blame to be shared, the largest portion belongs to us. That's right, you and me. The fans who wear the powder blue jerseys on weekends. We're joined by fans of teams that lost to the Chargers last year but were impressed. And, of course, the national sports media, which in near-unison proclaimed our team the most-talented in the league. By far.

You know what? We're wrong. All of us. Really wrong. The Chargers are pretty good. Just not that good.

Philip Rivers is pretty good, but doesn't make good decisions under pressure. This is the NFL, so no matter how good your offensive line, you will face pressure when trying to pass. The line, however, is missing a pretty good center in Nick Hardwick. Cory Withrow, his replacement, was much like a statue in Jacksonville on Sunday. Shane Olivea was hurt earlier. I wonder if he is fully recovered. In Minnesota, I saw Marcus McNeil beaten off the edge like I hadn't before. As a unit, they've been unable to open holes for LT. The receiving corps is missing Eric Parker, who was a reliable possession receiver who could keep drives going. Vincent Jackson has not risen to stardom. Buster Davis was a ghost until the second half last week.

The defense has been hit with injuries in two of the three positions on the line. The linebackers terribly miss Donnie Edwards -- a victim of AJ Smith's hubris -- and other recent veterans whom have not been adequately replaced. I don't think anyone envisioned Shaun Phillips as anything other than a situational pass rusher when he was drafted. Now he's a full-time linebacker. The secondary is well, the secondary.

Finally, the coaching. Individual people love Norv Turner. He's been a very successful coach of quarterbacks because of that. A good offensive coordinator, too. If you get close to him and take his message to heart, you'll play quite well. Turner had Alex Smith of all people on the verge of stardom last year and look at him now.

Groups don't respond well to Turner, however. The record is they respond quite poorly to him. As a head coach, you deal with the group far more than you do with individuals. The lack of inspiration from the top is clearly affecting this team.

We fans need to ratchet back our expectations to something more reasonable. This season is not turning in opportunity lost. The opportunity may have been much slimmer in the first place than we realized.

The division could come down to a Christmas Eve night battle at Qualcomm Stadium with the Broncos. The Chargers already have a win against them, and another win would give them the the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record. Otherwise, the team's schedules from here out look comparable.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Peavy Wins Cy Young, Padres Off-season

Jake Peavy of the Padres was a highly deserving and unanimous National League Cy Young Award winner today, after leading the senior circuit in wins, ERA and strikeouts.

I was actually a little nervous about whether Peavy would have won the prize that was rightfully his. Just this week, Ben Braun of Milwaukee won Rookie of the Year over Troy Tulowitzski of Colorado. Braun, who had a fine first season, is half the player that the Rockies shortstop is. Maybe that changes in 2008, but it was the case in 2007, which is what counts. The AL Cy Young vote, which favored Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia, was also controversial.

Plus, the Padres had been screwed before -- recently. I thought Trevor Hoffman was clearly the best pitcher in the league in 2006, but the award went to Brandon Webb of Arizona, who won only 16 games. Hoffman obviously fell victim to anti-reliever bias, something I understand in general, but as in most things in life, there are times when exceptions can be made, and the season before last was one of those occasions.

The question now becomes what to do with Peavy, who is signed through 2009 and will command a heap of money when he becomes a free agent. General Manager Kevin Towers is reportedly in preliminary negotiations with agent Barry Axlerod, which is good to hear. It sounds like both sides have the same goal of keeping the pitcher in San Diego for a long time. The only downside I see is if they go through the winter without coming to any sort of agreement, the story of Peavy's future in San Diego will be front and center all season and could become a major distraction. If the team and agent are smart, even if no agreement is reached, they will all put on smiling faces in April, say their relatively close, and not let Peavy blow his value.

Which brings us to free agency. The Padres have a lot of money available this winter but have a lot of holes to fill. Center field, second base, the back end of the pitching rotation and catching are major holes. Neither Mike Cameron nor Milton Bradley will return.

Plus, an upgrade is necessary in right field, where the play of Brian Giles has been sub-standard for two years running. Khalil Greene was sub-par at shortstop until August. Adrian Gonzalez's second season with the Padres was not as impressive as his first.

But looking at the list of free agents and, well who do you want?

Braves CF Andruw Jones, who hit just .222 last year and will want well into eight figures for a year of services? You know, there's spending money, and there's spending money wisely. Jim Edmonds? Puhleeze! (I almost never write Puhleeze, but the thought of acquiring Edmonds is the right time). Geoff Jenkins in left brings yawns.

Torii Hunter of the Twins has had two straight excellent seasons at the plate, but he wants a five-year deal, and he's 32 years old.

Aaron Rowand of the Phillies makes sense. He's a Gold Glove winner with a decent average each year who inflated his power numbers playing in a bandbox last season.

That's the high point. Players at 2B and C are more likely than not to stay home, unless you want to spend big buck for Paul LoDuca of the Mets, who is injury prone, not great defensively and not a strong clubhouse guy.

Starting pitchers? Let's put it this way. Josh Fogg of the Rockies is listed as the second-best free agent pitcher on Sportsline.com, behind the Angels' Bartolo Colon.

In other words, the free agent market ain't happening, unless the Padres decide to make a splash for Hunter.

If I'm the GM, I think I bite the bullet and spend the newfound cash on what I have. You want to keep Peavy, Chris Young, and Heath Bell around for the next decade. If Kevin Kouzmanoff produces for a full season the way he did in the last 2/3 of 2007, you'll add him to the list of big 2009 contracts.

At catcher, remember it was only a year ago that people were thinking Josh Bard had some real potential. Maybe another year is not out of the question, but when prompted by Lee Hamilton in a radio interview, Peavy did not rise to Bard's defense. So maybe not. It might be time to give Oscar Robles a shot at 2B and let him handle the bat in the eighth position in the batting order.

None of these are great options, I know. But screaming at Kevin Towers to go spend some money is not likely to get you too far. Maybe you can get a Hunter or Rowand and, if so, great. But the number of needs the Friars have lead you to think the solutions are more likely to come from the minor leagues, over a period of several years. Those upcoming seasons might be lean.

---

XTRA Sports 1360 is off to a fine start, by the sound of it, but Lee Hamilton's schtick is still hard on the ears sometimes. "Along the West Coast" is laughable when you can barely receive the station north of Lake Hodges.

And he's still geographically challenged. There is no "East Valley" here. When he says "from North Park to Balboa Park," maybe that's a statement about the station's signal strength, because there's nothing between those two spots. And did I really hear him say "from Del Mar to Duarte?" Huh?

---

Memo to Norv. Play Billy Volek. You don't need to take away Philip Rivers' starting job, or remove him to prove a point. But there's a reason why baseball has relief pitchers. Sometimes in football you just need to put in another guy for a series or two to see what happens. Give Volek that chance.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Sports Radio, Aztecs End Vegas Curse

That San Diego tomorrow will have a third all-sports radio station, one led by the enigmatic Lee Hamilton, brings a story of great irony.

Just a few short years ago, Clear Channel ended the sports format on what was known as XTRA Sports 690, meaning that San Diego had no sports radio at all, and Hamilton was relegated to a radio station in Los Angeles. A few months later, John Lynch, the founder of the station years earlier, rode to the rescue with what is now XX Sports 1090, bringing with him a number of former 690 employees, but not Hamilton.

As I was still operating the Sandiegosportstown.com site at the time, I was pretty close to the people who were involved in the sports radio comings and goings. They were not only thrilled at the rescue, but immensely pleased that Hamilton was frozen out of the picture. Now that they were free of Lee, they could go do sports radio the way it should be done. The smug anti-Hamilton jokes flowed freely.

Fast-forward to 2007, and look at who is getting the last laugh. Lee Hamilton.

Lynch's rescue quickly soured, in large part due to a lack of direction at the staff level. I've heard that many on the staff were far more concerned with the next chance to party instead of the next chance to actually work. On-air hosts were rarely at games. The best people they had, Matt Vasgersian, John Fricke and Alan Horton, bailed out as fast as they could. The station is now an unlistenable mess outside of Padres game broadcasts.

Hamilton, meanwhile, stayed the course with Clear Channel, eventually shifted to KOGO to file morning and afternoon sports reports and put himself in position to work on San Diego State football broadcasts. Monday he will be the prime talk show host on the new sports radio station. He has ingratiated himself with Aztecs fans by posting regularly on the Aztectalk.com site, is the top sports voice for a radio outfit that carries Chargers games -- which would have been unheard-of years ago -- and made up with Ted Leitner after a long-running feud. Leitner, who spent several years at 1090, is obviously aware of how things are.

Hamilton also made national news and gained well-deserved empathy with his daring and close escape from the Witch Creek Fire, which damaged his Rancho Bernardo home.

Not long ago, Hamilton was the butt of jokes. Now he's back where he belongs, hosting a sports show in San Diego and giving us the "best damn 15 minutes of radio there is."

How long the man remains on top is up to him, and his managers. Many of the anti-Hamilton sentiments had an element of truth. I made some comments about the way Hamilton did business myself, and I hope he's changed his ways.

Many of those items listed in his infamous show-opening 15 minutes were old enough to be in the morning newspaper, and in the Internet age, are certainly too stale to be given to a modern audience. Same with his "high-speed sports wire," which gave "news" that was hours old. His pitiful begging for telephone callers and haranging of local sports fans was often pathetic -- a display that he'd lost his audience, not that there was something wrong with that audience.

He also frequently presented taped interviews as if they were live. One time, there was an event at San Diego State that many reporters -- myself included -- covered. Hamilton was there. I knew what was said and by whom. To hear it played on the radio THREE WEEKS later was a shock, even by Lee Hamilton standards.

Let's hope those days are over. The show-opening headlines and the high-speed sports wire have to be fresh. He has to respect his audience, which is far more in-touch and sophisticated than when he started doing radio. And if he tapes an interview -- which is often because his show airs when most teams practice -- just say he taped it earlier in the day. People are okay with it, just be honest.

Everyone is on Lee Hamilton's side now, so let's hope he's worthy. As much as the pendulum has come back his way now, it could easily drop away again.

---

San Diego State's struggles in football over the years have included a heavy dose of bad karma to go along with the poor play, ineffective coaching and bad recruiting decisions. So often SDSU came into a season with high hopes, only to have a returning starter at QB go down to injury in the first game or two. Or one of Ted Tollner's last years, when some favored SDSU to win the Mountain West, but nearly every offensive lineman was hurt a month into the season.

Or, looming large in the minds of fans Saturday night, the bizarre 44-42 nightmare loss at UNLV in 1996, which cost the Aztecs a bowl game. The Aztecs entered that game with eight wins and had just beaten a ranked and unbeaten Wyoming team. UNLV was winless and terrible. And SDSU, a reasonable defensive team, could not stop the Rebels that day in a contest that resembled a bunch of buddies slinging the ball around at the neighborhood park. Peter Holt, a reliable placekicker, missed a last-second field goal that would have saved the season.

So maybe Saturday night's 38-30 win over UNLV is a sign of changing fortunes. After State took a quick 21-0 lead over a dispirited and disorganized Rebels' squad, Bad Karma raised its ugly head and tried everything possible to sandbag the Aztecs chances of victory.

A short-but-strong running back the Aztecs held in check in the first half suddenly started bouncing off defenders like a pachinko ball on his way to long gains. The secondary gave up a long touchdown pass on 3rd and 22. The offense that sparkled in the first 30 minutes went three-and-out on the first two possessions and QB Kevin O'Connell threw an interception on the third -- a pass that bounced off the intended receiver's hands. UNLV closed to within 21-17.

Previous Aztecs teams would have, at worst, collapsed like a house of cards or, at best, might have prevailed in a shootout.

Instead, this happened. Mekell Wesley ran back a kickoff 88 yards for a TD and a 28-17 lead. UNLV scored again to cut their deficit, but inexplicably went for two-point and had the ball swatted away by an Aztec defensive back. Note that it was a UNLV coach making a bonehead call and an Aztec defender making a positive play.

The offense then got in gear and drove for a field goal. UNLV was held to three-and-out their next possession and, while State had a poor offensive possession that only took a minute off the clock, Martell Fantroy picked off a pass and broke several tackles while running it back 55 yards for the clinching score at 38-23. UNLV added its final points on a Hail Mary pass with 7 seconds left.

San Diego State still displays a lot of youthful inexperience, from letting down after taking the big lead to allowing that last Rebels TD.

But they didn't let Bad Karma kill them this time, like previous teams. This was not a good UNLV team, and it should not have beaten SDSU. And they didn't.

Maybe we really are entering a new era of Aztecs football. Fans have been tired not just of losing to teams better than ours, but losing in weird ways to teams that we should have taken care of. The win in Las Vegas might be a sign that things are getting better.

Now it's on to Air Force, a team that has eight wins under new coach Troy Calhoun including Saturday's 17-point victory over Notre Dame in South Bend, an impressive feat despite the Irish' 1-9 record. We can take our chances on talent. Nice to know that Bad Karma might be out of the way.

Sunday, November 04, 2007

Turnarounds in Football

It can't accurately be said -- yet -- that this weekend's football results for San Diego State and the San Diego Chargers represent turnarounds, but both teams appear to be just entering the long curve and starting to rotate the steering wheel. For the Aztecs, it's a good thing. Not so for the Bolts.

SDSU's 27-24 comeback victory over Wyoming was the best Aztecs game at Qualcomm Stadium in about 11 years, probably since that scintillating 28-24 conquest of an undefeated and ranked Cowboys team in 1996, which I've listed as one of the programs Top 10 all-time wins.

State began the season with a small, young and confused defense that couldn't stop anyone. There were some baby steps of improvement, but in the past few weeks, it's become apparent that this unit can stop most of the teams in the Mountain West Conference. That's light years ahead of where it was at the beginning of the season.

The offense, unfortunately, has not improved at all. In fact, it has probably regressed somewhat. The offensive line was expected to be a weak point, and it remains so: unable to generate a running game and barely unable to protect QB Kevin O'Connell. If the senior signal-caller didn't have some of the best legs in college football, he'd be dead. O'Connell, who was pretty good at the beginning of the season, missed on 12 straight passes before offensive coordinator Del Miller had his troops go into a no-huddle attack. That played right to O'Connell's leadership strengths and forced him into a passing rhythm. Look for more of that in the week ahead.

Cautious optimism? Of the people who played key roles in the win, CB Vonnie Holmes, LB Russell Allen and DE Siaosi Fifita are juniors; WR Roberto Wallace, LB Luke Laologi, CB Aaron Moore and DE Jonathan Soto are sophomores; and S Martrell Fantroy, RB Brandon Sullivan, LB Andrew Preston, C Trask Iosefa and WR Vincent Brown -- who caught the winning TD -- are freshmen. There's a lot of good college football to come at The Q in future seasons.

Not so sure about whether pro football will be similarly good.

The Chargers not only got blown out in a 35-17 embarrassment at what had been a 2-5 Minnesota squad, but their defense got blown off the ball. Rookie RB Adrian Peterson did not gain 296 yards rushing all by himself. The Vikings offensive line physically dominated the Chargers front seven in a manner rarely seen in the NFL, let alone against the traditionally stingy Bolts.

This, even with the Vikings offering very little in the way of a passing threat behind QB Brooks Bollinger. In it's first seven games, the Vikes had scored more than 17 points just twice.

The Chargers were just as weak on offense. Against a defense that had distinguished itself against the run, but was vulnerable to the pass, QB Philip Rivers was 19-42 throwing for just 197 yards. RB LaDainian Tomlinson gained 2.5 yards per rush.

The Chargers were outscored 28-3 in the final half-hour. Ugly.

Waving goodbye to a three-game winning streak against bad teams, the Chargers are now 4-4 and face a slate that includes Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, Baltimore, at Kansas City where they rarely play well, at Tennessee and home against improved Detroit. They're tied in the standings with Kansas City, which will own the tiebreaker if they beat the Chargers in their rematch.

Suddenly, where once the only important thing for the Chargers was to make the Super Bowl, the chances of just making the playoffs are beginning to dim.

For both the Aztecs and the Chargers, the curve leading to the turnaround -- both good and bad -- is just beginning. Both could change course quickly: the Aztecs will be in trouble if O'Connell can't get back to his early-season accuracy and if an improved defensive line has trouble with large blockers of TCU or BYU, of if the Las Vegas curse rears its head for a third time; the Chargers if the play of the lines improve and if coach Norv Turner can show some guts and pull Rivers in favor of Billy Volek when the offense stalls.

Anyway, this is why the play the games on the field instead of on paper, I suppose. Teams, and opponents, are always in a state of flux, moving up and down. Turnarounds are always much closer than we think.