Some who were there will tell you that Wednesday night's San Diego State men's basketball 70-66 victory over Saint Mary's in the NIT quarterfinals was the greatest Aztecs sports event they've ever experienced. They're almost right, but there's more.
What we witnessed was an exorcism. This was 12,000 screaming fans who sent packing whatever demons have been infecting the school's athletic programs over the last couple of decades.
I don't need to rehash the litany of disasters SDSU fans have experienced just as it appeared their team was about to scale the precipice. And it would take away from our good feelings. We know about them all too well.
The game Wednesday night was a tangible sign that SDSU is turning the corner, something we've been so close to for so long -- not just in men's basketball but other sports.
It's my position that 2009 is the dawn of a new era for athletics at San Diego State University. You can really sense things changing and people around town are slowly but surely figuring it out. The past two days at my work, a place where few folks attended or even noticed SDSU, people have been talking about the game.
But back to the new aura at SDSU. Consider that the women's hoops team both hosted the NCAA Tournament and won a game, just three years after going winless in conference play, and all the key players return next year. Water polo is ranked fifth in the nation. The best college baseball pitcher in the past decade is hurling for SDSU as I write. Softball is still good.
Then there's football. I really think this is where everything started to turn around. Following last fall's 2-10 disaster, what big-money boosters we have stepped forward with a whopping million bucks to buy out coach Chuck Long. That people are willing to fork over serious money during the worst economy in years to get rid of someone is telling.
Somehow, be it fate suddenly turned kind or what, we ended up with Ball State's Brady Hoke taking the reigns. Hoke knows how to turn around bad programs with no resources. This program, despite the 2008 record, is not in horrible shape overall and SDSU has a lot of resources. That potential exists here, along with obvious respect for the new coach, attracted Al Borges and Rocky Long to the mesa. They're merely two of the best coordinators in college football over the past two decades. Adding an NFL legend in Brian Sipe to the staff and bringing in a very solid recruiting class considering the time available only made things look better.
Hoke started the turnaround the moment he was introduced at his press conference. With a commanding "Good afternoon" and his expectation of a response from the gathered media, he woke people up very quickly. Whoa! This guy is different! Things are going to be different in Aztecland with him around. And they have been -- ever since.
I have no idea if coach Steve Fisher's men's basketball Aztecs will defeat Baylor Tuesday at the NIT semifinals in New York. The Bears have beaten some pretty good teams and their midseason slump was courtesy of some very good opponents. Plus, with good perimeter shooters and a 7-footer inside, they present the matchup combination (think Utah and BYU) that has caused them some trouble this year.
If the Aztecs lose, it doesn't matter, because they were playing in Madison Square Garden at a time when only seven other basketball teams are still alive.
In those troubling past couple of decades, they wouldn't have made it this far. They'd have approached the summit, against a great Saint Mary's team, and fallen short. That the Gaels gave the Aztecs all they wanted and the home team still prevailed as the fans went bananas, is further evidence that times are finally changing for the better.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
March 09 Notes
Back again. I'm working on a pretty major project right now that's keeping me away from the blogs but I'm close to the point where I might start becoming a more regular poster again. We'll see.
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Good for the Chargers, LaDainian Tomlinson and his agent to come together on a deal to stay in San Diego for three more seasons. Cooler heads prevailed. It was clear to team officials that the fans wanted LT to remain, and the player and his handlers understood his age and injury history.
It's likely that LT's best years are behind him but he could be productive for several more years yet. Now I'd like to see GM AJ Smith grab a blocker or two for him. Once again, I'm afraid a below-average offensive line is going to keep the Chargers from mounting a serious Super Bowl drive this fall.
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In the late-1950s, fans of the then-Milwaukee Braves had a saying: "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain," in reference to high-quality starting pitchers Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain and the lack of anything behind them.
The Padres apparently go into the 2009 season with something like: "Peavy and Young and a bunch of dung." I am relatively okay -- not thrilled by any stretch -- with the lineup on the field, especially if Kevin Kouzmanoff or Chase Headley come into their own. The starting pitching depth, however, is a joke. Cha Seung Baek as a third starter is a reach, followed by whom? Wade LeBlanc? Josh Geer?
The Friars are headed for a 100-loss season.
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Make up for it by going to San Diego State to see Stephen Strasburg. He is as dominant as a pitcher for the Aztecs as Marshall Faulk was as a football running back.
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Concerning San Diego State, is there any remaining question that Beth Burns is the best coach on campus? She turned a women's basketball team winless in conference play to a co-champion in three seasons. What's more, the nucleus of the team is in sophomores and juniors and with more talent slated to come in, what's happening this year is merely an appetizer.
The women's season has been quite a bit more satisfying than that of the men, who at times appear to be the most talented team in a conference where the top four teams were separated by a game in the standings and the fifth, UNLV, swept tournament top-seeded BYU and hosts this week's tourney.
It's a shame how the community has failed to embrace coach Steve Fisher's Aztecs, who have won 20-games four years in a row and will go into the NCAA Tournament or NIT for the fourth straight season. However, a lot of it is their own doing, from Lorrenzo Wade's brush with the law to getting out-hustled on television in the last couple weeks of the year. The one thing this team can't do is shoot, and poor-shooting teams always look ugly no matter all the other things it does well.
The fans' reception to the Aztecs -- and I toss out last week's UNLV game because that's the one all the diehards bought tickets for months ago -- confirms my suspicion of the San Diegans will support a winner theory. No, they want a quality product that will leave them satisfied at the end that they didn't waste their hard-earned money.
I suspect the Aztecs will handle UNLV surprisingly easily in their first-round MWC contest Thursday. I think their defense has the cold Rebels so flummoxed that SDSU might run them out of their own house. But then all bets are off. The Aztecs are good enough to win the whole thing and inconsistant enough to go home early. I think they have to make the MWC final and hope small conference upsets are few -- Cleveland State's Horizon final defeat of Butler has already removed an available at-large slot -- for the Aztecs to be chosen for the NCAA field.
The women made their first splash in the MWC Tournament last year. I'd like to say the right now, on paper, they're hotter than anyone and should be favored to win it. But there's teams that owe them some payback this time around, and there's some good women's teams in the league capable of knocking them off. We'll have to hold our breath and hope for the best.
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Love the Brady Hoke football hire. I wish I'd been available to comment on it at the time. The respect shown him by his peers is all you need to know, and the recruiting class appears phenomenal for the short time the new staff had available.
---
Good for the Chargers, LaDainian Tomlinson and his agent to come together on a deal to stay in San Diego for three more seasons. Cooler heads prevailed. It was clear to team officials that the fans wanted LT to remain, and the player and his handlers understood his age and injury history.
It's likely that LT's best years are behind him but he could be productive for several more years yet. Now I'd like to see GM AJ Smith grab a blocker or two for him. Once again, I'm afraid a below-average offensive line is going to keep the Chargers from mounting a serious Super Bowl drive this fall.
---
In the late-1950s, fans of the then-Milwaukee Braves had a saying: "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain," in reference to high-quality starting pitchers Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain and the lack of anything behind them.
The Padres apparently go into the 2009 season with something like: "Peavy and Young and a bunch of dung." I am relatively okay -- not thrilled by any stretch -- with the lineup on the field, especially if Kevin Kouzmanoff or Chase Headley come into their own. The starting pitching depth, however, is a joke. Cha Seung Baek as a third starter is a reach, followed by whom? Wade LeBlanc? Josh Geer?
The Friars are headed for a 100-loss season.
---
Make up for it by going to San Diego State to see Stephen Strasburg. He is as dominant as a pitcher for the Aztecs as Marshall Faulk was as a football running back.
---
Concerning San Diego State, is there any remaining question that Beth Burns is the best coach on campus? She turned a women's basketball team winless in conference play to a co-champion in three seasons. What's more, the nucleus of the team is in sophomores and juniors and with more talent slated to come in, what's happening this year is merely an appetizer.
The women's season has been quite a bit more satisfying than that of the men, who at times appear to be the most talented team in a conference where the top four teams were separated by a game in the standings and the fifth, UNLV, swept tournament top-seeded BYU and hosts this week's tourney.
It's a shame how the community has failed to embrace coach Steve Fisher's Aztecs, who have won 20-games four years in a row and will go into the NCAA Tournament or NIT for the fourth straight season. However, a lot of it is their own doing, from Lorrenzo Wade's brush with the law to getting out-hustled on television in the last couple weeks of the year. The one thing this team can't do is shoot, and poor-shooting teams always look ugly no matter all the other things it does well.
The fans' reception to the Aztecs -- and I toss out last week's UNLV game because that's the one all the diehards bought tickets for months ago -- confirms my suspicion of the San Diegans will support a winner theory. No, they want a quality product that will leave them satisfied at the end that they didn't waste their hard-earned money.
I suspect the Aztecs will handle UNLV surprisingly easily in their first-round MWC contest Thursday. I think their defense has the cold Rebels so flummoxed that SDSU might run them out of their own house. But then all bets are off. The Aztecs are good enough to win the whole thing and inconsistant enough to go home early. I think they have to make the MWC final and hope small conference upsets are few -- Cleveland State's Horizon final defeat of Butler has already removed an available at-large slot -- for the Aztecs to be chosen for the NCAA field.
The women made their first splash in the MWC Tournament last year. I'd like to say the right now, on paper, they're hotter than anyone and should be favored to win it. But there's teams that owe them some payback this time around, and there's some good women's teams in the league capable of knocking them off. We'll have to hold our breath and hope for the best.
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Love the Brady Hoke football hire. I wish I'd been available to comment on it at the time. The respect shown him by his peers is all you need to know, and the recruiting class appears phenomenal for the short time the new staff had available.
Monday, December 01, 2008
Chargers Season on Smith, Aztecs Coaching
Lay the blame of this stinker of a Chargers season at the feet of General Manager A.J. Smith. People instinctively want to blame head coach Norv Turner for the 4-8 disaster, but the poor guy probably should not be there in the first place.
It is Smith who couldn't get along with Turner's predecessor, Marty Schottenheimer, and fired him. It is Smith who replaced one of the most successful coaches in NFL history with one of the least successful, then saddled him with out-of-place defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell, who might have been outstanding if his players had different sets of skills. It is Smith who then emasculated Turner by describing him as a system coach and intimating that he was calling the shots, thereby costing the new guy any chance of gaining respect from players or fans. It is Smith who ran Donnie Edwards out of town, a linebacker who always has well over 100 tackles a year. No Chargers linebacker will this year.
It is Smith who seems to place little value on arguably the most important unit in football, the offensive line. In Monday's San Diego Union-Tribune, columnist Tim Sullivan hits the nail on the head. The offensive line, once very good, is not so hot anymore. With Cris Dielman out with the flu against the Falcons, there was no room for the Chargers greatest weapon, LaDainian Tomlinson, to run. He got just 22 yards on 14 carries Sunday, and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season, something he hasn't been remotely close to since 2004's 3.9 ypc. He's on track to his lowest number of touchdowns since his rookie season. Their starting right tackle is a second-year former sixth round draft choice.
Now Smith is no terrible GM by any means. He's done a pretty good job in trying to hold the nucleus of this team together under sometimes difficult circumstances. Some in this town try to annoint him a genius, however, and it just isn't the case. He's made some good decisions and some bad ones. The 2008 season is one in which his poor decisions have come back to bite us all in the butt.
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The Chargers experience of firing Schottenheimer in an attempt to bring in a supposedly better coach should give pause to Aztecs fans, who let go Chuck Long in, well, an attempt to bring in a supposedly better coach. You get someone like Turner who fits the system, created it, even, and you think its ideal. But it doesn't work out.
If a pretty good GM like Smith can blow the biggest decision he'll ever make, how will a below-average athletic director like Jeff Schemmel do for San Diego State's football opening? Fans are cringing over the very real possibility that Schemmel will try to bring in his old buddy Glen Mason who, like Turner, has a career losing record at Kansas and Minnesota.
The encouraging sign regarding the Aztecs situation is the high profile role being played by university President Dr. Stephen Weber. I honestly don't remember his presence at the news conference in which the firing of Tom Craft was announced. Maybe he was there. But he apparently played a major role in getting rid of Long. Maybe he can prevent Schemmel from making a huge mistake.
Mason not only doesn't equal Turner, he is far less than Chargers coach.
While I've been upfront with my contention that SDSU had to bite the bullet to fire Long, I am agnostic about his replacement. All of the potential new coaches who've been mentioned have points both good and bad, including Mason.
Whoever it is, though, has a chance to do something no Aztecs coach has been able to do since Denny Stolz in 1986 -- hit the ground running. All coaches since then had to come in and repair damage before they could even think of winning. Long has fixed many of the troubles he inherited in 2005. His problem, the reason why he wasn't ever going to be a winner, is he couldn't inspire the troops, come up with a decent game plan or manage a game properly. If the next coach can do that, and take advantage of some of the gifts the outgoing staff will leave behind, the Aztecs could reach .500 quickly and start going to bowl games if not next year then the year after.
The new coach will have an outstanding sophomore quarterback, a decent corps of receivers, an offensive line that while young will be much bigger and have more depth than before, a deep and experienced defensive line, and young linebackers who might supplant the starters of the past couple of years. Large holes exist at running back and the secondary.
Stolz, by the way, went to the Holiday Bowl his first season.
It is Smith who couldn't get along with Turner's predecessor, Marty Schottenheimer, and fired him. It is Smith who replaced one of the most successful coaches in NFL history with one of the least successful, then saddled him with out-of-place defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell, who might have been outstanding if his players had different sets of skills. It is Smith who then emasculated Turner by describing him as a system coach and intimating that he was calling the shots, thereby costing the new guy any chance of gaining respect from players or fans. It is Smith who ran Donnie Edwards out of town, a linebacker who always has well over 100 tackles a year. No Chargers linebacker will this year.
It is Smith who seems to place little value on arguably the most important unit in football, the offensive line. In Monday's San Diego Union-Tribune, columnist Tim Sullivan hits the nail on the head. The offensive line, once very good, is not so hot anymore. With Cris Dielman out with the flu against the Falcons, there was no room for the Chargers greatest weapon, LaDainian Tomlinson, to run. He got just 22 yards on 14 carries Sunday, and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season, something he hasn't been remotely close to since 2004's 3.9 ypc. He's on track to his lowest number of touchdowns since his rookie season. Their starting right tackle is a second-year former sixth round draft choice.
Now Smith is no terrible GM by any means. He's done a pretty good job in trying to hold the nucleus of this team together under sometimes difficult circumstances. Some in this town try to annoint him a genius, however, and it just isn't the case. He's made some good decisions and some bad ones. The 2008 season is one in which his poor decisions have come back to bite us all in the butt.
---
The Chargers experience of firing Schottenheimer in an attempt to bring in a supposedly better coach should give pause to Aztecs fans, who let go Chuck Long in, well, an attempt to bring in a supposedly better coach. You get someone like Turner who fits the system, created it, even, and you think its ideal. But it doesn't work out.
If a pretty good GM like Smith can blow the biggest decision he'll ever make, how will a below-average athletic director like Jeff Schemmel do for San Diego State's football opening? Fans are cringing over the very real possibility that Schemmel will try to bring in his old buddy Glen Mason who, like Turner, has a career losing record at Kansas and Minnesota.
The encouraging sign regarding the Aztecs situation is the high profile role being played by university President Dr. Stephen Weber. I honestly don't remember his presence at the news conference in which the firing of Tom Craft was announced. Maybe he was there. But he apparently played a major role in getting rid of Long. Maybe he can prevent Schemmel from making a huge mistake.
Mason not only doesn't equal Turner, he is far less than Chargers coach.
While I've been upfront with my contention that SDSU had to bite the bullet to fire Long, I am agnostic about his replacement. All of the potential new coaches who've been mentioned have points both good and bad, including Mason.
Whoever it is, though, has a chance to do something no Aztecs coach has been able to do since Denny Stolz in 1986 -- hit the ground running. All coaches since then had to come in and repair damage before they could even think of winning. Long has fixed many of the troubles he inherited in 2005. His problem, the reason why he wasn't ever going to be a winner, is he couldn't inspire the troops, come up with a decent game plan or manage a game properly. If the next coach can do that, and take advantage of some of the gifts the outgoing staff will leave behind, the Aztecs could reach .500 quickly and start going to bowl games if not next year then the year after.
The new coach will have an outstanding sophomore quarterback, a decent corps of receivers, an offensive line that while young will be much bigger and have more depth than before, a deep and experienced defensive line, and young linebackers who might supplant the starters of the past couple of years. Large holes exist at running back and the secondary.
Stolz, by the way, went to the Holiday Bowl his first season.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Comments on Aztecs Football, Peavy
I can't believe it's been so long since I've updated this blog but my attention has been on some other projects. However, I just added an election prediction post to my similarly ignored political blog so I thought I would add some sorely needed comments here, too.
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Separated at birth: the San Diego State football team and the U.S. financial markets. As soon as you think things have hit bottom, you get a new lesson in how much lower things can go. The Aztecs are like a cartoon character who falls off the side of a cliff and keeps falling, falling and falling with no apparent bottom in sight. For SDSU's football team, we know there is an end after three more games but we don't know just how bad things will get before the final whistle vs. UNLV.
That I'm not talking about any hope for success or that SDSU will suddenly pull out of its descent and play three competitive games at season's end is indicative of how things are. There is almost nothing good about this program at all. There were three things early this season that we could hang our hats on and all three have been taken away from us -- QB Ryan Lindley, and let me be the first to say that I fear that his shoulder injury could have long-term implications for whether he'll be as great as we thought he'd be; WR Vincent Brown, one of the many Aztecs to have suffered a concussion, which can be a capricious injury; and LB Russell Allen, whose exploits have been swallowed up by the monstrous failures of his defensive teammates.
Call 2008 an utter and complete disaster for the football program.
I don't think athletic director Jeff Schemmel helped much when he said coach Chuck Long would absolutely return in 2009. Schemmel's explanation was that Long hasn't had a chance to prove whether he could be a winner with a healthy program, which includes physical health, a full roster and academic success. As bad as the team's injury plague is, there are so many other problems that if Schemmel can't judge Long by now, then there's not much hope for him, either. One gets the impression that Long is only being kept around because his buyout is too expensive, not that he's still wanted. So either Schemmel is dumb or his coach is unwanted. Not good.
I still think that Long needs to be presented with a creative settlement to his buyout clause, perhaps something like what Tennessee is apparently going to do with Phillip Fulmer, spread his payments out over several years. I think if he bows out gracefully now, he has a chance to resume his career elsewhere. People in athletics understand that sometimes you're not a good fit in certain places, and it's no reflection on the person. I think that's a wrong assessment, but I think that's how sports professionals not close to the program will see it. My own view is that the even-handed, steady Long was a perfect fit for the program but he made some horrible choices as his assistant coaches and has been too loyal to those who've served him poorly.
The biggest problem this year besides the injuries has been the management of an offensive unit that was relatively intact until Lindley went down at TCU in early October. Scheme, game plans, play calling and clock management have been such that most high school coaches could do better.
So let's say Long refuses all overtures to leave on his own. Drastic action is needed to place this program back on track. As a hypothetical boss, I would order him to fire both coordinators, his running backs coach, his linebackers coach, his secondary coach and his special teams coach. That's rough, but covers all the underperforming units. The defensive line has sustained seven season-ending injuries and two other hurt players have missed multiple games. Their coach was only brought in for this season, so he gets a pass.
I also think that, with all the injuries -- many of them to young players -- it could take a long time for them to heal. I think the coaches have to take a time-out from their long-term building process and recruit a large number of junior college linemen, along with a JC running back and defensive backs. Because of scholarship limitations, there won't be many recruits anyway, so I think some offers are going to have to be pulled back and redirected for immediate help. The benefit is added depth for the next two seasons and a chance for the current group of youngsters to not have to take all the heat until they're upperclassmen.
Lastly, I also think that whoever is coaching the Aztecs needs to consider not renewing scholarships of underperforming players, a la Steve Fisher after his first year on the Mesa. Man, that was brutal, but it was also necessary and started the men's basketball team down the path toward consecutive NIT and NCAA Tournament seasons. Nothing was as heart-rending as pulling the rug out from under some young men, many of them local, who'd worked so hard to be successful for us on the basketball court, but it had to be done. It might have to be done here, too, in order to free up scholarships for some JC transfers. I'd be on the telephone right now to every JC coach in the country telling him that every job is open but QB and Brown's receiver spot.
Speaking of Fisher, the way Schemmel has handled this mess reminds me of a post this spring about how nice it would have been for Kansas State to take our athletic director home so we could promote Fisher to the AD spot. I think Fisher would be a natural for the position. He doesn't suffer fools gladly. If he was in charge, I don't think Long would have as much rope as he seems to hold now, unless it were a noose.
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Speaking of complete messes, let's bring up the Padres. A team that barely missed a 100-loss season is shopping around it's number one starter? Huh? And the team will get better how? This makes absolutely no sense. So he's going to make big money the next couple of years. Work around it. Sorry.
In the entire National League, there are seven stoppers among starting pitchers, that's it. I'm talking about the unquestioned number ones in a rotation, the kind that can lead you to a World Series title like Cole Hamels did. Besides Peavy and Hamels, you have Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano (who had a sort of off-year) and now Tim Lincecum. CC Sabathia might make an eighth depending on where he ends up. Therefore, these types of pitchers don't grow on trees, know what I mean? Giving one up even for quality elsewhere makes no sense when you might not get a quality number one starter for 20 years. You can always find a good outfielder.
Suggesting that Peavy might be traded is bad enough. That the Dodgers are one of the three top contenders for his services is mind-boggling. If he is dealt to LA, then Kevin Towers and Sandy Alderson should be run out of town. Literally. Maybe they can take Long with them.
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Thank God for USD basketball. And here's a cheer for Hamels, whose high school story was as compelling as any I've reported on. That high school championship game in which he took the mound for the last inning with his teammates and fans yelling encouragement was one of the great moments in local prep sports history.
Otherwise, 2008 has been the worst sports year around here for quite a while.
---
Separated at birth: the San Diego State football team and the U.S. financial markets. As soon as you think things have hit bottom, you get a new lesson in how much lower things can go. The Aztecs are like a cartoon character who falls off the side of a cliff and keeps falling, falling and falling with no apparent bottom in sight. For SDSU's football team, we know there is an end after three more games but we don't know just how bad things will get before the final whistle vs. UNLV.
That I'm not talking about any hope for success or that SDSU will suddenly pull out of its descent and play three competitive games at season's end is indicative of how things are. There is almost nothing good about this program at all. There were three things early this season that we could hang our hats on and all three have been taken away from us -- QB Ryan Lindley, and let me be the first to say that I fear that his shoulder injury could have long-term implications for whether he'll be as great as we thought he'd be; WR Vincent Brown, one of the many Aztecs to have suffered a concussion, which can be a capricious injury; and LB Russell Allen, whose exploits have been swallowed up by the monstrous failures of his defensive teammates.
Call 2008 an utter and complete disaster for the football program.
I don't think athletic director Jeff Schemmel helped much when he said coach Chuck Long would absolutely return in 2009. Schemmel's explanation was that Long hasn't had a chance to prove whether he could be a winner with a healthy program, which includes physical health, a full roster and academic success. As bad as the team's injury plague is, there are so many other problems that if Schemmel can't judge Long by now, then there's not much hope for him, either. One gets the impression that Long is only being kept around because his buyout is too expensive, not that he's still wanted. So either Schemmel is dumb or his coach is unwanted. Not good.
I still think that Long needs to be presented with a creative settlement to his buyout clause, perhaps something like what Tennessee is apparently going to do with Phillip Fulmer, spread his payments out over several years. I think if he bows out gracefully now, he has a chance to resume his career elsewhere. People in athletics understand that sometimes you're not a good fit in certain places, and it's no reflection on the person. I think that's a wrong assessment, but I think that's how sports professionals not close to the program will see it. My own view is that the even-handed, steady Long was a perfect fit for the program but he made some horrible choices as his assistant coaches and has been too loyal to those who've served him poorly.
The biggest problem this year besides the injuries has been the management of an offensive unit that was relatively intact until Lindley went down at TCU in early October. Scheme, game plans, play calling and clock management have been such that most high school coaches could do better.
So let's say Long refuses all overtures to leave on his own. Drastic action is needed to place this program back on track. As a hypothetical boss, I would order him to fire both coordinators, his running backs coach, his linebackers coach, his secondary coach and his special teams coach. That's rough, but covers all the underperforming units. The defensive line has sustained seven season-ending injuries and two other hurt players have missed multiple games. Their coach was only brought in for this season, so he gets a pass.
I also think that, with all the injuries -- many of them to young players -- it could take a long time for them to heal. I think the coaches have to take a time-out from their long-term building process and recruit a large number of junior college linemen, along with a JC running back and defensive backs. Because of scholarship limitations, there won't be many recruits anyway, so I think some offers are going to have to be pulled back and redirected for immediate help. The benefit is added depth for the next two seasons and a chance for the current group of youngsters to not have to take all the heat until they're upperclassmen.
Lastly, I also think that whoever is coaching the Aztecs needs to consider not renewing scholarships of underperforming players, a la Steve Fisher after his first year on the Mesa. Man, that was brutal, but it was also necessary and started the men's basketball team down the path toward consecutive NIT and NCAA Tournament seasons. Nothing was as heart-rending as pulling the rug out from under some young men, many of them local, who'd worked so hard to be successful for us on the basketball court, but it had to be done. It might have to be done here, too, in order to free up scholarships for some JC transfers. I'd be on the telephone right now to every JC coach in the country telling him that every job is open but QB and Brown's receiver spot.
Speaking of Fisher, the way Schemmel has handled this mess reminds me of a post this spring about how nice it would have been for Kansas State to take our athletic director home so we could promote Fisher to the AD spot. I think Fisher would be a natural for the position. He doesn't suffer fools gladly. If he was in charge, I don't think Long would have as much rope as he seems to hold now, unless it were a noose.
---
Speaking of complete messes, let's bring up the Padres. A team that barely missed a 100-loss season is shopping around it's number one starter? Huh? And the team will get better how? This makes absolutely no sense. So he's going to make big money the next couple of years. Work around it. Sorry.
In the entire National League, there are seven stoppers among starting pitchers, that's it. I'm talking about the unquestioned number ones in a rotation, the kind that can lead you to a World Series title like Cole Hamels did. Besides Peavy and Hamels, you have Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano (who had a sort of off-year) and now Tim Lincecum. CC Sabathia might make an eighth depending on where he ends up. Therefore, these types of pitchers don't grow on trees, know what I mean? Giving one up even for quality elsewhere makes no sense when you might not get a quality number one starter for 20 years. You can always find a good outfielder.
Suggesting that Peavy might be traded is bad enough. That the Dodgers are one of the three top contenders for his services is mind-boggling. If he is dealt to LA, then Kevin Towers and Sandy Alderson should be run out of town. Literally. Maybe they can take Long with them.
---
Thank God for USD basketball. And here's a cheer for Hamels, whose high school story was as compelling as any I've reported on. That high school championship game in which he took the mound for the last inning with his teammates and fans yelling encouragement was one of the great moments in local prep sports history.
Otherwise, 2008 has been the worst sports year around here for quite a while.
Monday, September 01, 2008
Truth Hurts for Long, Staff
Last week I wrote that the San Diego State football season opener was the moment of truth for head coach Chuck Long and his staff. Well, the truth is known and it hurts.
The 29-27 loss to Cal Poly, State's second to the Mustangs in three years, demonstrated that Long and his bunch have not only made no progress, but have driven the SDSU program backwards.
The 2006 setback could be chalked up to uncaring players, and play-calling designed to try to toughen them up. This time, the Aztecs were simply manhandled at the line of scrimmage and the defense, in particular, was awful in overpursuing and arm tackling.
Many Aztecs fans, well many of those who remain Aztecs fans and there aren't many anymore, want Long to be fired immediately. I disagree.
There were a number of factors that were out of Long's control that contributed to Saturday's embarrassment. First, Cal Poly was pretty good and experienced for an FCS team, plenty capable of taking advantage of SDSU mistakes. They might contend for a national title in that division. Second, the defensive line came in beat up and things just got worse. Third, WR Roberto Wallace, who otherwise showed a world of potential, dropped several passes at critical moments.
The rest of the problems, like a bad game plan out of the gate, a horrible game by the defensive back seven except for Vonnie Holmes and poor clock management, fall at Long's feet.
So while we need to hold off on judgment right now, Judgment Day is close at hand. Like Sept. 14. By then, the Aztecs will be home from consecutive road contests at Notre Dame and San Jose State. If the Aztecs play well in both games, fine. If not, there are two weeks until the next contest, and Long and or defensive coordinator Bob Elliott will have to go.
It's highly unusual to make changes at this juncture in the season, but if SDSU is killed in both games and get off to an 0-3 start, drastic measures will be necessary. If nothing else, the program will get an infusion of new blood and maybe some fans will decide to keep coming. No one will come watch a thrice-ripped team play at Qualcomm.
If I'm Jeff Schemmel, the athletic director, and I'm getting an earful from rich boosters, my response is to ask whether they're willing to contribute to a contract buyout. I'm also contacting some out-of-work coaching contacts to see they might want to come back to work. Simply losing both games, bad as that prospect sounds, won't be enough to pull the trigger, but getting pounded will.
---
The biggest reason Schemmel probably won't do anything is he should then be fired himself. If no one comes to watch the Aztecs play their final five home games, he'll lose his job anyway.
The 29-27 loss to Cal Poly, State's second to the Mustangs in three years, demonstrated that Long and his bunch have not only made no progress, but have driven the SDSU program backwards.
The 2006 setback could be chalked up to uncaring players, and play-calling designed to try to toughen them up. This time, the Aztecs were simply manhandled at the line of scrimmage and the defense, in particular, was awful in overpursuing and arm tackling.
Many Aztecs fans, well many of those who remain Aztecs fans and there aren't many anymore, want Long to be fired immediately. I disagree.
There were a number of factors that were out of Long's control that contributed to Saturday's embarrassment. First, Cal Poly was pretty good and experienced for an FCS team, plenty capable of taking advantage of SDSU mistakes. They might contend for a national title in that division. Second, the defensive line came in beat up and things just got worse. Third, WR Roberto Wallace, who otherwise showed a world of potential, dropped several passes at critical moments.
The rest of the problems, like a bad game plan out of the gate, a horrible game by the defensive back seven except for Vonnie Holmes and poor clock management, fall at Long's feet.
So while we need to hold off on judgment right now, Judgment Day is close at hand. Like Sept. 14. By then, the Aztecs will be home from consecutive road contests at Notre Dame and San Jose State. If the Aztecs play well in both games, fine. If not, there are two weeks until the next contest, and Long and or defensive coordinator Bob Elliott will have to go.
It's highly unusual to make changes at this juncture in the season, but if SDSU is killed in both games and get off to an 0-3 start, drastic measures will be necessary. If nothing else, the program will get an infusion of new blood and maybe some fans will decide to keep coming. No one will come watch a thrice-ripped team play at Qualcomm.
If I'm Jeff Schemmel, the athletic director, and I'm getting an earful from rich boosters, my response is to ask whether they're willing to contribute to a contract buyout. I'm also contacting some out-of-work coaching contacts to see they might want to come back to work. Simply losing both games, bad as that prospect sounds, won't be enough to pull the trigger, but getting pounded will.
---
The biggest reason Schemmel probably won't do anything is he should then be fired himself. If no one comes to watch the Aztecs play their final five home games, he'll lose his job anyway.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Moment of Truth for SDSU Football and Coach Long
Truth will usually come out in the end. It has a funny way of doing that. Sometimes it takes a while to make itself known, but eventually known it will be.
An interesting non-sports analogy about truth: I covered most of the high-profile 2002 story of the murder of Danielle Van Dam by David Westerfield, who was eventually convicted and sentenced to death. At the end of the case, some doubts persisted. It just made no sense that a guy as accomplished as Westerfield would do something like kill a little girl. After the sentencing, the judge released a number of documents that had been sealed under court order. The truth, yes, had come out. Documents the jury never saw proved without a doubt that the jurors had made the correct decision.
Saturday is the moment of truth for the state of San Diego State football and the regime of head coach Chuck Long. How SDSU performs in its 2008 opener against Cal Poly will tell us a lot about whether Long's staff has made reasonable progress over the past two and a half years.
It's become obvious over time that Long's first two seasons have to be looked upon almost as throwaways. There was not that much talent and very little commitment from holdover players recruited by the previous staff. Freshmen who played on defense in 2007 were too small and too overwhelmed. The offensive line wasn't so good and neither were the running backs.
In 2008, Long is out of excuses. There has to be some serious improvement or he his hiring will be labeled as a major bust. Improvement may not come in the form of a winning record and a bowl game. It could come as 6-6, which would be two wins better than last season. Besides, most fans recognize 2009 as the potential breakthrough season. But only if the Aztecs show some ability this year.
I've often written that Long and his staff are awesome Monday through Friday. It's Saturday that bothered me. Now I want to be happy on Saturday or else.
That said, I'm actually rather confident about this year's prospects. Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley looks like another Todd Santos in the making. Santos, remember, set school passing records as a freshman. The receiving corps with Vincent Brown, Darren Mougey and Roberto Wallace will be the best since Tolver-Osgood if they remain healthy. Wallace has been the Aztecs version of Ruben Rivera, a great athlete from Central America who has taken a while to catch on to a US sport. If he succeeds, watch out. The offensive line has been reshuffled to give some redshirt and true freshman time to develop, which will pay off in the future. I still can't say much for the running back corps.
Perhaps most telling in the opener will be the performance of the defense. Vast improvement is expected and needed from these guys. If the Mustangs move on them and score a lot with their triple-option offense, then this could be a long season. Yet, the line has a solid two-deep now, the linebackers have an extra year of experience and so does the secondary that was rebuilt before 2007. DE BJ Williams, LBs Russell Allen and Luke Laologi, both cornerbacks and both safeties have all-star potential. It's getting them there that's the rub.
Special teams will also be critical to watch. There's new legs at punter and placekicker and a returner in Davion Mauldin who is said to have some great moves.
I'm going to remain optimistic and call this one 35-14 for the Aztecs. A little closer will be okay. A lot closer or, heaven forbid, a loss, will be troubling.
---
You have to love Chargers LB Shawne Merriman's guts. His judgment, however, leaves a lot to be desired.
---
By the way, I'm now blogging about the Mountain West Conference for College Football News at cfn.scout.com.
An interesting non-sports analogy about truth: I covered most of the high-profile 2002 story of the murder of Danielle Van Dam by David Westerfield, who was eventually convicted and sentenced to death. At the end of the case, some doubts persisted. It just made no sense that a guy as accomplished as Westerfield would do something like kill a little girl. After the sentencing, the judge released a number of documents that had been sealed under court order. The truth, yes, had come out. Documents the jury never saw proved without a doubt that the jurors had made the correct decision.
Saturday is the moment of truth for the state of San Diego State football and the regime of head coach Chuck Long. How SDSU performs in its 2008 opener against Cal Poly will tell us a lot about whether Long's staff has made reasonable progress over the past two and a half years.
It's become obvious over time that Long's first two seasons have to be looked upon almost as throwaways. There was not that much talent and very little commitment from holdover players recruited by the previous staff. Freshmen who played on defense in 2007 were too small and too overwhelmed. The offensive line wasn't so good and neither were the running backs.
In 2008, Long is out of excuses. There has to be some serious improvement or he his hiring will be labeled as a major bust. Improvement may not come in the form of a winning record and a bowl game. It could come as 6-6, which would be two wins better than last season. Besides, most fans recognize 2009 as the potential breakthrough season. But only if the Aztecs show some ability this year.
I've often written that Long and his staff are awesome Monday through Friday. It's Saturday that bothered me. Now I want to be happy on Saturday or else.
That said, I'm actually rather confident about this year's prospects. Redshirt freshman QB Ryan Lindley looks like another Todd Santos in the making. Santos, remember, set school passing records as a freshman. The receiving corps with Vincent Brown, Darren Mougey and Roberto Wallace will be the best since Tolver-Osgood if they remain healthy. Wallace has been the Aztecs version of Ruben Rivera, a great athlete from Central America who has taken a while to catch on to a US sport. If he succeeds, watch out. The offensive line has been reshuffled to give some redshirt and true freshman time to develop, which will pay off in the future. I still can't say much for the running back corps.
Perhaps most telling in the opener will be the performance of the defense. Vast improvement is expected and needed from these guys. If the Mustangs move on them and score a lot with their triple-option offense, then this could be a long season. Yet, the line has a solid two-deep now, the linebackers have an extra year of experience and so does the secondary that was rebuilt before 2007. DE BJ Williams, LBs Russell Allen and Luke Laologi, both cornerbacks and both safeties have all-star potential. It's getting them there that's the rub.
Special teams will also be critical to watch. There's new legs at punter and placekicker and a returner in Davion Mauldin who is said to have some great moves.
I'm going to remain optimistic and call this one 35-14 for the Aztecs. A little closer will be okay. A lot closer or, heaven forbid, a loss, will be troubling.
---
You have to love Chargers LB Shawne Merriman's guts. His judgment, however, leaves a lot to be desired.
---
By the way, I'm now blogging about the Mountain West Conference for College Football News at cfn.scout.com.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Time to Sell Padres, SDSU Offensive Line
It's time for John and Becky Moores to sell the Padres. It's time for new ownership and new management.
I've generally been supportive of the current front office team and their long-term plan, as evidenced by many of my posts on this blog, but my patience wore out with this week's trade of P Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
There's several problems with this. First and foremost, Maddux was the just about the only reason to pay to watch this sorry ballclub. After all, the Padres are a business which needs income from fans who attend ballgames. Seeing a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer make one of the final starts of his career would have brought out some fans to Petco Park. Add to that his race to move past Roger Clemens to become the career winningest modern-day pitcher, and you had a real attraction. That team President Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin Towers let such an opportunity slip away makes me doubt their judgment.
Second, the Padres got nothing for him. Two players out of a list of five lower-level prospects. Towers says they like a couple of those prospects. The trouble is, they're in the lower part of the minor leagues, not the higher part. We've seen, sadly, how far the jump is just from AAA to the majors. These guys think they can figure out which A-ball players are going to become major league contributors? Don't think so. If I really thought that this trade would help the Padres in the long-term, I wouldn't be writing this. You don't trade a marketable Hall of Famer for low-level prospects.
Third, as a general rule, you do nothing to help the Dodgers during a pennant race. It doesn't matter whether your own team is in the race or not. You want to disillusion the fans of San Diego County even more than they already are? Help the Dodgers win the NL West. The Dodgers get a Hall of Fame pitcher and give up low-level prospects that are dime-a-dozen. Replacing them is no big deal. The Padres also have to assume most of the more than $2 million left on Maddux' 2008 salary. On a side note, the Dodgers in the past three weeks-plus have received a pair of Hall of Famers for next to nothing. I think this is a scandal that needs to be investigated. You think Major League Baseball and the TV networks are in a panic over the chances of having an Arizona-Tampa Bay World Series?
Anyway, this whole situation, wrapped up in what has become a dreadful 2008 season, casts grave doubts on the ability of Alderson and Towers to operate this ballclub, especially given the Moores divorce situation. Alderson was brought in to improve the minor league situation, but I'm skeptical over whether things have improved. First-round draft picks have been busts. Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne all are just a little above or a little below .500. Nothing special. Mediocre, each of them, and I think we've all just about had it with mediocre except at the major league level, where it was replaced with just plain awful.
In divorces in community property states, the major assets like houses are generally sold with the revenue divided between the former partners. In the Moores' case, their biggest asset is the Padres. They need to dispose of this franchise, the sooner the better.
---
San Diego State football is the number one reason why you never assume anything in sports. It appeared that the Aztecs were going into the 2008 season with as many as three redshirt freshmen starting in the offensive line. That was a huge reason why all the preseason prognosticators rated SDSU as seventh or worse in the Mountain West Conference.
Instead, center Tommie Draheim is out until sometime in October with a shoulder injury, left tackle Mike Matamua is likely to miss the season with a foot injury and none of the others of what was a highly regarded class of linemen two years ago were able to claim the right tackle position.
With converted defender Peter Nelson at left tackle, returning starter Trask Iosefa entrenched at center, and Lance Louis set at right tackle -- along with guard Mike Schmidt -- four of the five starting linemen have game experience.
I'm troubled, however, by the apparent inability of the redshirt freshmen to take this offensive line over. That was the plan -- these guys win the jobs and play together for three or four years and have plenty of depth behind them. I understand the injuries. Draheim, however, was listed number one at center only because Iosefa had to iron out his academic issues. The tackle positions, however, were wide open, as was the guard slot on the other side from Schmidt.
It's incredibly difficult for freshmen, even those who redshirted, to come right in and win an offensive line job and perform effectively. It might be the most difficult position in football for a youngster because of the physical and mental demands.
That none of them have overcome the odds to win jobs for the Aug. 30 opener is worrisome. A major part of the reason why SDSU has been shut out of bowls for 10 years is because the offensive line has not been up to snuff. These guys were supposed to be better, supposed to be an improvement over the upperclassmen and the recently departed. They were supposed to take over and actually start blocking some people.
For now, at least, the Aztecs will go with a junior on quarterback Ryan Lindley's blind side who has not played offensive line in college, a senior former walk-on at guard, a game but too-small center, a junior making his first start and a senior who used to be a tight end and became a guard after injuries.
I worry not only that this scenario will lead to another ineffective offensive line this fall, but will result in Coach Chuck Long and his staff being back at square one at this time next year. Aztecs fans have been psyching up for 2009 like they have a two-week Mediterranean cruise or something. If the blockers are a bunch of newbies again, next year could be as enjoyable as still another cold bath.
I've generally been supportive of the current front office team and their long-term plan, as evidenced by many of my posts on this blog, but my patience wore out with this week's trade of P Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
There's several problems with this. First and foremost, Maddux was the just about the only reason to pay to watch this sorry ballclub. After all, the Padres are a business which needs income from fans who attend ballgames. Seeing a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer make one of the final starts of his career would have brought out some fans to Petco Park. Add to that his race to move past Roger Clemens to become the career winningest modern-day pitcher, and you had a real attraction. That team President Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin Towers let such an opportunity slip away makes me doubt their judgment.
Second, the Padres got nothing for him. Two players out of a list of five lower-level prospects. Towers says they like a couple of those prospects. The trouble is, they're in the lower part of the minor leagues, not the higher part. We've seen, sadly, how far the jump is just from AAA to the majors. These guys think they can figure out which A-ball players are going to become major league contributors? Don't think so. If I really thought that this trade would help the Padres in the long-term, I wouldn't be writing this. You don't trade a marketable Hall of Famer for low-level prospects.
Third, as a general rule, you do nothing to help the Dodgers during a pennant race. It doesn't matter whether your own team is in the race or not. You want to disillusion the fans of San Diego County even more than they already are? Help the Dodgers win the NL West. The Dodgers get a Hall of Fame pitcher and give up low-level prospects that are dime-a-dozen. Replacing them is no big deal. The Padres also have to assume most of the more than $2 million left on Maddux' 2008 salary. On a side note, the Dodgers in the past three weeks-plus have received a pair of Hall of Famers for next to nothing. I think this is a scandal that needs to be investigated. You think Major League Baseball and the TV networks are in a panic over the chances of having an Arizona-Tampa Bay World Series?
Anyway, this whole situation, wrapped up in what has become a dreadful 2008 season, casts grave doubts on the ability of Alderson and Towers to operate this ballclub, especially given the Moores divorce situation. Alderson was brought in to improve the minor league situation, but I'm skeptical over whether things have improved. First-round draft picks have been busts. Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne all are just a little above or a little below .500. Nothing special. Mediocre, each of them, and I think we've all just about had it with mediocre except at the major league level, where it was replaced with just plain awful.
In divorces in community property states, the major assets like houses are generally sold with the revenue divided between the former partners. In the Moores' case, their biggest asset is the Padres. They need to dispose of this franchise, the sooner the better.
---
San Diego State football is the number one reason why you never assume anything in sports. It appeared that the Aztecs were going into the 2008 season with as many as three redshirt freshmen starting in the offensive line. That was a huge reason why all the preseason prognosticators rated SDSU as seventh or worse in the Mountain West Conference.
Instead, center Tommie Draheim is out until sometime in October with a shoulder injury, left tackle Mike Matamua is likely to miss the season with a foot injury and none of the others of what was a highly regarded class of linemen two years ago were able to claim the right tackle position.
With converted defender Peter Nelson at left tackle, returning starter Trask Iosefa entrenched at center, and Lance Louis set at right tackle -- along with guard Mike Schmidt -- four of the five starting linemen have game experience.
I'm troubled, however, by the apparent inability of the redshirt freshmen to take this offensive line over. That was the plan -- these guys win the jobs and play together for three or four years and have plenty of depth behind them. I understand the injuries. Draheim, however, was listed number one at center only because Iosefa had to iron out his academic issues. The tackle positions, however, were wide open, as was the guard slot on the other side from Schmidt.
It's incredibly difficult for freshmen, even those who redshirted, to come right in and win an offensive line job and perform effectively. It might be the most difficult position in football for a youngster because of the physical and mental demands.
That none of them have overcome the odds to win jobs for the Aug. 30 opener is worrisome. A major part of the reason why SDSU has been shut out of bowls for 10 years is because the offensive line has not been up to snuff. These guys were supposed to be better, supposed to be an improvement over the upperclassmen and the recently departed. They were supposed to take over and actually start blocking some people.
For now, at least, the Aztecs will go with a junior on quarterback Ryan Lindley's blind side who has not played offensive line in college, a senior former walk-on at guard, a game but too-small center, a junior making his first start and a senior who used to be a tight end and became a guard after injuries.
I worry not only that this scenario will lead to another ineffective offensive line this fall, but will result in Coach Chuck Long and his staff being back at square one at this time next year. Aztecs fans have been psyching up for 2009 like they have a two-week Mediterranean cruise or something. If the blockers are a bunch of newbies again, next year could be as enjoyable as still another cold bath.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Worst Padres, Parker
The San Diego Union-Tribune's Nick Canepa had an interesting column Thursday morning, it can happen, suggesting that the 2008 version of the Padres might be the worst team in franchise history -- mainly because they're really boring.
The Padres are currently the team with the worst record in the National League and are saddled with what the newspaper correctly calls a bunch of AAAA players -- those who've proved themselves at the AAA level but just can't take that next step to the major leagues.
Whether this ends up being the worst team, though, is questionable. First, from a pure won-loss perspective, the Friars would have to go 14-46 in their remaining 60 games to equal the 111-loss 1969 expansion team. To just reach 100 losses, they'd have to go 24-36, which is certainly within reach. Add one more setback and they'd equal the low-water mark of more recent seasons, set in 1993 during the fire sale.
As bad as the Padres are, I don't think they'll go 14-46 to finish the year. Reaching 100 losses won't shock me, however.
Also compare the product on the field. The current Padres have a budding star in 1B Adrian Gonzalez, a promising rookie in LF Chase Headley, a solid pro in RF Brian Giles, a true #1 starter in Jake Peavy and the National League's top closer for more than a decade in Trevor Hoffman. Oh, yeah, no matter how much he's been struggling lately, P Greg Maddux is a first-ballot lock for the Hall of Fame. Everyone else stinks, but that's not a bad core for the fans to enjoy.
In 1993, the Padres had RF Tony Gwynn, of course. Beyond that were OF Gary Sheffield and IB Fred McGriff for about a half-season each before they were traded. Sheffield brought Hoffman. No one knew what P Andy Ashby would become and he wouldn't even give us a hint for two more years. Pitchers Andy Benes and Greg Harris had their moments. The Padres up the middle had Kevin Higgins at C, Jeff Gardner at 2B, Ricky Gutierrez at SS and Derek Bell in CF. I was around and following the Padres in those days and I completely forget Higgins and Gardner. Not even seeing their names in print brings recollection.
The 1973 and 1974 Padres each lost 102 games. Those were the squads that brought Dave Winfield to the bigs. Clay Kirby lost 18 the first year. Randy Jones lost 22 the next before went on his run of outstanding seasons. Nate Colbert led the '73 club with 80 RBI but fell out of favor the next season, replaced by aging Willie McCovey, who brought some curiousity and star power. In '74, no one hit above .286 nor won more than 9 games.
So I think it's a leap to say this team is worse than those teams. There's very little to be said about those teams. On the other hand, what happens if Peavy and Chris Young are healthy and effective in 2009 and they sign or develop a quality catcher? An extra year benefits both Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff? Jody Gerut finds consistency? Then maybe 2008 is an abberation.
I can certainly tell you that 1993, 1969, 1973 and 1974 led to nothing.
---
I, for one, will miss Eric Parker. I love hard-working pros and good people, and he was both. However, he was mediocre as a receiver and the Chargers are right to be trying to upgrade their level of talent. Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis are all better than Parker and those below him deserve their shot. That said, I hope he does well and catches on somewhere.
---
I support Chargers GM AJ Smith in his reported prioritization that could cost the Bolts DE Igor Olshanksy after this year. The guy is good, no question, but recently re-signed DE Luis Castillo is better and Smith also has to find salary room for QB Philip Rivers, Chambers, Jackson, LT Marcus McNeill and LB Shawne Merriman. Those guys have contracts that run a year later than Olshansky, but there's so many of them that the extensions have to start coming now, as Castillo's did.
---
Despite some minor off-field setbacks, my confidence is growing that San Diego State can get back up to 6-6 this year. They're doing most everything right for a change, and that has to pay off sooner or later. And the odds have to swing back into their favor at some point. If the defensive line can tie up opposing blockers at all, the Aztecs linebackers and safeties could become terrors.
The Padres are currently the team with the worst record in the National League and are saddled with what the newspaper correctly calls a bunch of AAAA players -- those who've proved themselves at the AAA level but just can't take that next step to the major leagues.
Whether this ends up being the worst team, though, is questionable. First, from a pure won-loss perspective, the Friars would have to go 14-46 in their remaining 60 games to equal the 111-loss 1969 expansion team. To just reach 100 losses, they'd have to go 24-36, which is certainly within reach. Add one more setback and they'd equal the low-water mark of more recent seasons, set in 1993 during the fire sale.
As bad as the Padres are, I don't think they'll go 14-46 to finish the year. Reaching 100 losses won't shock me, however.
Also compare the product on the field. The current Padres have a budding star in 1B Adrian Gonzalez, a promising rookie in LF Chase Headley, a solid pro in RF Brian Giles, a true #1 starter in Jake Peavy and the National League's top closer for more than a decade in Trevor Hoffman. Oh, yeah, no matter how much he's been struggling lately, P Greg Maddux is a first-ballot lock for the Hall of Fame. Everyone else stinks, but that's not a bad core for the fans to enjoy.
In 1993, the Padres had RF Tony Gwynn, of course. Beyond that were OF Gary Sheffield and IB Fred McGriff for about a half-season each before they were traded. Sheffield brought Hoffman. No one knew what P Andy Ashby would become and he wouldn't even give us a hint for two more years. Pitchers Andy Benes and Greg Harris had their moments. The Padres up the middle had Kevin Higgins at C, Jeff Gardner at 2B, Ricky Gutierrez at SS and Derek Bell in CF. I was around and following the Padres in those days and I completely forget Higgins and Gardner. Not even seeing their names in print brings recollection.
The 1973 and 1974 Padres each lost 102 games. Those were the squads that brought Dave Winfield to the bigs. Clay Kirby lost 18 the first year. Randy Jones lost 22 the next before went on his run of outstanding seasons. Nate Colbert led the '73 club with 80 RBI but fell out of favor the next season, replaced by aging Willie McCovey, who brought some curiousity and star power. In '74, no one hit above .286 nor won more than 9 games.
So I think it's a leap to say this team is worse than those teams. There's very little to be said about those teams. On the other hand, what happens if Peavy and Chris Young are healthy and effective in 2009 and they sign or develop a quality catcher? An extra year benefits both Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff? Jody Gerut finds consistency? Then maybe 2008 is an abberation.
I can certainly tell you that 1993, 1969, 1973 and 1974 led to nothing.
---
I, for one, will miss Eric Parker. I love hard-working pros and good people, and he was both. However, he was mediocre as a receiver and the Chargers are right to be trying to upgrade their level of talent. Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis are all better than Parker and those below him deserve their shot. That said, I hope he does well and catches on somewhere.
---
I support Chargers GM AJ Smith in his reported prioritization that could cost the Bolts DE Igor Olshanksy after this year. The guy is good, no question, but recently re-signed DE Luis Castillo is better and Smith also has to find salary room for QB Philip Rivers, Chambers, Jackson, LT Marcus McNeill and LB Shawne Merriman. Those guys have contracts that run a year later than Olshansky, but there's so many of them that the extensions have to start coming now, as Castillo's did.
---
Despite some minor off-field setbacks, my confidence is growing that San Diego State can get back up to 6-6 this year. They're doing most everything right for a change, and that has to pay off sooner or later. And the odds have to swing back into their favor at some point. If the defensive line can tie up opposing blockers at all, the Aztecs linebackers and safeties could become terrors.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Booing Trevor
I talked to a couple people Wednesday about the supposed booing of Trevor Hoffman when the Padres closer walked off the field the previous night after giving up a pair of home runs to Twins batters. With the TV coverage heading to a commercial, their response was that they didn't actually hear any booing. However, reporters and players at Petco most definitely did notice it.
My reaction is simple. Sure, Hoffman is a San Diego icon and has done much for Padres fans and the community at large over the years. But to say he's off-limits for booing is just off-base.
Major leage baseball is not the game it was back when I was growing up, when you'd pay 5 bucks and it was nice if your team won and a "shame" if you lost, but no big deal. Baseball is a high stakes sport now when you go to Petco Park and pay $27 for the right to sit in right field. When I go downtown and pay $45 to watch a baseball game within the infield, I want to see the Padres score runs, I want to see Jake Peavy shut down the opposition, I want to cheer to "Hell's Bells" and I want to see Hoffman end the contest by making someone look foolish with his changeup. If I don't get what I want, I have a right to boo.
Plus, I think that most of the people who booed Hoffman have cheered him numerous times in the past and really don't suddenly hate the guy. He threw two bad pitches and got rocked. You get rocked, you get booed. Tonight's another night.
---
Steve Fisher has finally landed a legitimate big man in Illinois transfer Brian Carlwell. He's listed at 6-11 and 245 pounds, something the Aztecs have lacked in the post almost since Fisher arrived. He has to sit out next season, darn it, but could give SDSU quite a front line when paired up with Billy White and Tim Shelton.
While he was highly regarded coming out of high school, Illinois people seemed to consider him a project and a quick scan of an Illini fan site didn't show any anguish at his departure.
My reaction is simple. Sure, Hoffman is a San Diego icon and has done much for Padres fans and the community at large over the years. But to say he's off-limits for booing is just off-base.
Major leage baseball is not the game it was back when I was growing up, when you'd pay 5 bucks and it was nice if your team won and a "shame" if you lost, but no big deal. Baseball is a high stakes sport now when you go to Petco Park and pay $27 for the right to sit in right field. When I go downtown and pay $45 to watch a baseball game within the infield, I want to see the Padres score runs, I want to see Jake Peavy shut down the opposition, I want to cheer to "Hell's Bells" and I want to see Hoffman end the contest by making someone look foolish with his changeup. If I don't get what I want, I have a right to boo.
Plus, I think that most of the people who booed Hoffman have cheered him numerous times in the past and really don't suddenly hate the guy. He threw two bad pitches and got rocked. You get rocked, you get booed. Tonight's another night.
---
Steve Fisher has finally landed a legitimate big man in Illinois transfer Brian Carlwell. He's listed at 6-11 and 245 pounds, something the Aztecs have lacked in the post almost since Fisher arrived. He has to sit out next season, darn it, but could give SDSU quite a front line when paired up with Billy White and Tim Shelton.
While he was highly regarded coming out of high school, Illinois people seemed to consider him a project and a quick scan of an Illini fan site didn't show any anguish at his departure.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Padres Conumdrum, Football Pre-season Camps
The San Diego Union-Tribune offered an interesting question Tuesday in pointing out that the Padres are, entering tonight's game vs the Twins, are 13 games below .500 and in the bottom half of the National League in nearly every important statistic, but the National League West has been so unexpectedly bad that the Friars are only 8 games out of first place -- a margin that can easily be closed with another decent winning streak.
So, to borrow from the article's headline, are the Padres buyers or sellers? Club President Sandy Alderson said he's taking a wait-and-see approach, meaning nothing dramatic is likely to happen until we get closer to the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.
I think that's probably the right approach, barring some other team calling with a generous offer, say A-Rod in exchange for Cla Meredith. Hey, a guy can dream, right?
While I think I would take Alderson's approach, I think the Padres are going to end up in the seller's camp. The recent series vs the Yankees and Tigers, in which they were 1-5, showed they're just not close to being ready for prime time. They beat up on the sagging Mets and the struggling Dodgers to make themselves look decent a couple weeks ago, but interleague play has been a reality check.
One question that's been raised lately has been whether to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff, who has not displayed the power expected of him so far at third base. He's batting just .263 with only 33 RBI through nearly half the season and more than two-thirds of his hits have merely been singles. I don't mind a power-hitter who can shorten up the stroke when the situation calls for it, but I want him to be hitting .300 if that's the case. Still, Kouz is only a sophomore as a regular, and I'd hate to see him go. Depends on the offer, you know? Otherwise, the front office planned for a power offense based on Kouz at third and Chase Headley in left and ought to stay on that track.
As I see it, the Padres have two black holes, catcher and second base. The Padres might have the worst catching in the majors. Outfield, an area that I called AAAA quality before the season, might have some promise with Chase Headley, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles having a pretty good season. But Michael Barrett is at .187 and Luke Carlin is hitting at a .172 clip. I sorta like Carlin, but that's not cutting it. When Tadahito Iguchi is ready to return to second base, I'm not going to be too excited. The Friars should keep Edgar Gonzalez and his bat right there next to little bro.
Don't look for someone else to come from the minors. While Matt Antonelli is reportedly coming around some, his batting average is still far under the Mendoza line. The pitchers mentioned in the article? A couple have ERAs over 6 and have allowed far more hits than innings pitched. The problem in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League isn't just hits, its that average fly balls go for home runs. So while ERAs will be inflated while it seems like you're in old-style Coors Field every start, your hits-to-innings pitched ratio should still be reasonable.
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When I was running Sandiegosportstown.com. one of my best photos was of Rancho Bernardo High P Brandon Burke. He came up to me one day with a smile and told me how much he and his family enjoyed the photo. I appreciated the comment, since my photography mostly stunk.
Now Burke's Fresno State Bulldogs are in the finals of the College World Series, and he's a key part of it. I'm rooting for him.
---
If the baseball talk is getting you down, Chargers pre-season camp begins July 25. SDSU is supposed to start the first week of August.
So, to borrow from the article's headline, are the Padres buyers or sellers? Club President Sandy Alderson said he's taking a wait-and-see approach, meaning nothing dramatic is likely to happen until we get closer to the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.
I think that's probably the right approach, barring some other team calling with a generous offer, say A-Rod in exchange for Cla Meredith. Hey, a guy can dream, right?
While I think I would take Alderson's approach, I think the Padres are going to end up in the seller's camp. The recent series vs the Yankees and Tigers, in which they were 1-5, showed they're just not close to being ready for prime time. They beat up on the sagging Mets and the struggling Dodgers to make themselves look decent a couple weeks ago, but interleague play has been a reality check.
One question that's been raised lately has been whether to trade Kevin Kouzmanoff, who has not displayed the power expected of him so far at third base. He's batting just .263 with only 33 RBI through nearly half the season and more than two-thirds of his hits have merely been singles. I don't mind a power-hitter who can shorten up the stroke when the situation calls for it, but I want him to be hitting .300 if that's the case. Still, Kouz is only a sophomore as a regular, and I'd hate to see him go. Depends on the offer, you know? Otherwise, the front office planned for a power offense based on Kouz at third and Chase Headley in left and ought to stay on that track.
As I see it, the Padres have two black holes, catcher and second base. The Padres might have the worst catching in the majors. Outfield, an area that I called AAAA quality before the season, might have some promise with Chase Headley, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles having a pretty good season. But Michael Barrett is at .187 and Luke Carlin is hitting at a .172 clip. I sorta like Carlin, but that's not cutting it. When Tadahito Iguchi is ready to return to second base, I'm not going to be too excited. The Friars should keep Edgar Gonzalez and his bat right there next to little bro.
Don't look for someone else to come from the minors. While Matt Antonelli is reportedly coming around some, his batting average is still far under the Mendoza line. The pitchers mentioned in the article? A couple have ERAs over 6 and have allowed far more hits than innings pitched. The problem in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League isn't just hits, its that average fly balls go for home runs. So while ERAs will be inflated while it seems like you're in old-style Coors Field every start, your hits-to-innings pitched ratio should still be reasonable.
---
When I was running Sandiegosportstown.com. one of my best photos was of Rancho Bernardo High P Brandon Burke. He came up to me one day with a smile and told me how much he and his family enjoyed the photo. I appreciated the comment, since my photography mostly stunk.
Now Burke's Fresno State Bulldogs are in the finals of the College World Series, and he's a key part of it. I'm rooting for him.
---
If the baseball talk is getting you down, Chargers pre-season camp begins July 25. SDSU is supposed to start the first week of August.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
San Diego's Greatest Sports Events
The San Diego Union-Tribune had a list Wednesday of the greatest sports events in San Diego, putting the recently completed U.S. Open golf tournament third.
A pretty good list, I think. I put together a number of such lists when I had Sandiegosportstown.com, but the the lists of greatest sports events I made used some different criteria. I think Bill Center was looking for things more national in scope, where San Diego made an impact on sports fans across the United States. Me, I was looking for local impact. Therefore, my list of the greatest local sports events included two from the high school level: Mt. Carmel's stirring girls basketball Division I final victory over El Camino and the Division IV boys basketball semifinals at Cuyamaca College in which Lincoln downed Christian on a three-pointer at the buzzer and Bishop's upset Horizon on a three-quarter court last-second desperation heave. Both were awesome, but no one outside the county would care.
Using Center's criteria, I think adding the America's Cup as suggested by some readers makes sense, certainly over a horse race and even Super Bowl XXXII. The San Diego State football victory over Florida State is a good pick, but from what I've read of SDSU's past, a 36-0 wipe-out of then small-college #1 North Dakota State before 35,000 at Balboa Stadium came with great drama and served as a springboard to Division I status. The Holiday Bowl game might also be included. I could also see USD's 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament championship victory over Gonzaga being on the list. Or this year's, since it led to an NCAA Tournament win.
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Chase Headley is finally called up by the Padres and in his first game gets two hits in Yankee Stadium. Nice.
A pretty good list, I think. I put together a number of such lists when I had Sandiegosportstown.com, but the the lists of greatest sports events I made used some different criteria. I think Bill Center was looking for things more national in scope, where San Diego made an impact on sports fans across the United States. Me, I was looking for local impact. Therefore, my list of the greatest local sports events included two from the high school level: Mt. Carmel's stirring girls basketball Division I final victory over El Camino and the Division IV boys basketball semifinals at Cuyamaca College in which Lincoln downed Christian on a three-pointer at the buzzer and Bishop's upset Horizon on a three-quarter court last-second desperation heave. Both were awesome, but no one outside the county would care.
Using Center's criteria, I think adding the America's Cup as suggested by some readers makes sense, certainly over a horse race and even Super Bowl XXXII. The San Diego State football victory over Florida State is a good pick, but from what I've read of SDSU's past, a 36-0 wipe-out of then small-college #1 North Dakota State before 35,000 at Balboa Stadium came with great drama and served as a springboard to Division I status. The Holiday Bowl game might also be included. I could also see USD's 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament championship victory over Gonzaga being on the list. Or this year's, since it led to an NCAA Tournament win.
---
Chase Headley is finally called up by the Padres and in his first game gets two hits in Yankee Stadium. Nice.
Friday, June 13, 2008
College Football Previews Are Coming
Seeing the San Diego State preview on Collegefootballnews.com has me thinking about the possibilities of the upcoming fall season. The CFN analysis is fair and has only a couple minor details wrong that a national media organization would be unlikely to be aware of, anyway.
Their view of SDSU is pretty much in line with my own thinking. Once coach Chuck Long gets his recruits some experience, they have a chance to be pretty good. The only question is how long it will take for them to jell. Most of the predictions put the Aztecs at last, or close to last, in the Mountain West Conference, mainly because the writers know that most of a porous defense returns and they have no idea who the new players on offense are. That's okay. If the defensive line progresses as expected, the stoppers might end up being pretty decent this year. The offense, with new starters across the line, at quarterback and at two receiving spots, is a project. Hopefully, the preview writers will know the names of the offensive players by this time next year.
What worries a lot of fans of the Aztecs is that the offense showed next to nothing this spring. The defense dominated, no question. Me, I'm not so concerned about spring performance. For the offense, anyway, it was all about learning. For the players to discover what it was like to actually participate in a meaningful way. For the coaches to determine which guys were on track for a productive 2008 season.
My worry is about the usual Aztec issue: the hole. Football teams on Montezuma Mesa are usually filled with talent, but there's always an empty space somewhere to let them down. This year, there are two holes likely to slow whatever progress Long and Company have made.
-- Kicker. Steady Garrett Palmer is gone, to be replaced by sophomore transfer Bryan Shields, a hometown boy from Bonita. CFN describes him as having a big leg. What worries me is that a young offensive line is likely to struggle most in the red zone, which will leave Shields a lot of opportunities. Fans could trust Palmer inside the 40. Shields? Don't know. I need accuracy, not a boomer.
-- Cornerback. I have yet to be impressed by Aaron Moore and, while Vonnie Holmes seems to have a nose for the football, it's only on an occasional basis. No question they were hampered by a lack of a pass rush last year, but even if there's no pressure on the opposing QB this year, I'm not so sure those two can hold up their end of the bargain. Behind them are former Oceanside HS standout Jose Perez, who was a tremendous prep athlete only a half-notch below the Reggie Bush-Patrick Gates level, but is completely untested at the college level. Sophomores Romeo Horn and DeyJuan Hemmings are also in the mix, but I've never heard of either being more than warm bodies unless they suddenly develop.
Interestingly, the defense is also where you'll find the strength of the team. The safety combination of senior Corey Boudreaux and sophomore Martrell Fantroy -- who could be an All-MWC player this season -- is as good as there is in the conference. There's very good depth behind them.
You also have quality linebacker Russell Allen and some guys who looked like they had some potential in their first seasons: Luke Laologi, Andrew Preston and Jerry Milling. Passing them all up could be redshirt freshman Miles Burris, who appeared lost at times this spring, but when he was on, he was a beast. Burris is likely getting significant snaps by October, if not sooner.
The one other worry I have is at running back, where there is no star nor anyone who looks to have star potential. I never quite got the hoopla over Brandon Sullivan, who seems to me to make nice depth and is decent at catching the ball out of the backfield. There's too small Atiyyah Henderson again and the back who had a good spring, Devon Brown, who is also small.
Long really has to make a recruiting push at the position and bring in Cathedral Catholic's Tyler Gaffney or, since he's one of only a few top prep senior ball-carriers out west, find a JC nugget. I hope Sullivan or Brown (or both) prove me wrong.
The schedule is favorable in some respects. The non-conference games in September go Cal Poly, at Notre Dame, at San Jose State and Idaho. No one really expects to beat the Fighting Irish in South Bend, but catching them in their opener might give the Aztecs a chance to be competitive. Figuring the other two are all but sure victories, the San Jose State game could be the key to reaching six wins this year. The Spartans aren't very good, but they've been tough at home in recent years and beat the Aztecs up there two years ago. It's a sad state of affairs when you can look at a schedule and not list SJSU as a sure win, but nowadays it's a hump SDSU has to climb over.
If things are going well heading into MWC play, then home games vs Air Force, Colorado State and UNLV should be winnable. Any stumbles, or if there are hopes of reaching seven wins, they'll have to snag wins either at New Mexico, at Wyoming, or at home vs a very good Utah team.
I think 7 wins are possible, 6 wins are realistic, and 5 wins are likely. A five-win season would continue a win-total improvement of a game each season under Long. Six wins would probably not have been enough for a bowl last year but could be in 2008 because there are a couple more post-season games. A lot of things will have to go right, including health and the development of the offensive line, for the Aztecs to finish 7-5.
That said, no matter what you read, Long is not on the hot seat this season. Unless this fall brings a complete disaster, including another loss to Cal Poly, then Long will stick around to see what 2009 brings. This upcoming season is the year his recruits get their feet wet. The next season will be the one in which Long and his staff are judged.
Their view of SDSU is pretty much in line with my own thinking. Once coach Chuck Long gets his recruits some experience, they have a chance to be pretty good. The only question is how long it will take for them to jell. Most of the predictions put the Aztecs at last, or close to last, in the Mountain West Conference, mainly because the writers know that most of a porous defense returns and they have no idea who the new players on offense are. That's okay. If the defensive line progresses as expected, the stoppers might end up being pretty decent this year. The offense, with new starters across the line, at quarterback and at two receiving spots, is a project. Hopefully, the preview writers will know the names of the offensive players by this time next year.
What worries a lot of fans of the Aztecs is that the offense showed next to nothing this spring. The defense dominated, no question. Me, I'm not so concerned about spring performance. For the offense, anyway, it was all about learning. For the players to discover what it was like to actually participate in a meaningful way. For the coaches to determine which guys were on track for a productive 2008 season.
My worry is about the usual Aztec issue: the hole. Football teams on Montezuma Mesa are usually filled with talent, but there's always an empty space somewhere to let them down. This year, there are two holes likely to slow whatever progress Long and Company have made.
-- Kicker. Steady Garrett Palmer is gone, to be replaced by sophomore transfer Bryan Shields, a hometown boy from Bonita. CFN describes him as having a big leg. What worries me is that a young offensive line is likely to struggle most in the red zone, which will leave Shields a lot of opportunities. Fans could trust Palmer inside the 40. Shields? Don't know. I need accuracy, not a boomer.
-- Cornerback. I have yet to be impressed by Aaron Moore and, while Vonnie Holmes seems to have a nose for the football, it's only on an occasional basis. No question they were hampered by a lack of a pass rush last year, but even if there's no pressure on the opposing QB this year, I'm not so sure those two can hold up their end of the bargain. Behind them are former Oceanside HS standout Jose Perez, who was a tremendous prep athlete only a half-notch below the Reggie Bush-Patrick Gates level, but is completely untested at the college level. Sophomores Romeo Horn and DeyJuan Hemmings are also in the mix, but I've never heard of either being more than warm bodies unless they suddenly develop.
Interestingly, the defense is also where you'll find the strength of the team. The safety combination of senior Corey Boudreaux and sophomore Martrell Fantroy -- who could be an All-MWC player this season -- is as good as there is in the conference. There's very good depth behind them.
You also have quality linebacker Russell Allen and some guys who looked like they had some potential in their first seasons: Luke Laologi, Andrew Preston and Jerry Milling. Passing them all up could be redshirt freshman Miles Burris, who appeared lost at times this spring, but when he was on, he was a beast. Burris is likely getting significant snaps by October, if not sooner.
The one other worry I have is at running back, where there is no star nor anyone who looks to have star potential. I never quite got the hoopla over Brandon Sullivan, who seems to me to make nice depth and is decent at catching the ball out of the backfield. There's too small Atiyyah Henderson again and the back who had a good spring, Devon Brown, who is also small.
Long really has to make a recruiting push at the position and bring in Cathedral Catholic's Tyler Gaffney or, since he's one of only a few top prep senior ball-carriers out west, find a JC nugget. I hope Sullivan or Brown (or both) prove me wrong.
The schedule is favorable in some respects. The non-conference games in September go Cal Poly, at Notre Dame, at San Jose State and Idaho. No one really expects to beat the Fighting Irish in South Bend, but catching them in their opener might give the Aztecs a chance to be competitive. Figuring the other two are all but sure victories, the San Jose State game could be the key to reaching six wins this year. The Spartans aren't very good, but they've been tough at home in recent years and beat the Aztecs up there two years ago. It's a sad state of affairs when you can look at a schedule and not list SJSU as a sure win, but nowadays it's a hump SDSU has to climb over.
If things are going well heading into MWC play, then home games vs Air Force, Colorado State and UNLV should be winnable. Any stumbles, or if there are hopes of reaching seven wins, they'll have to snag wins either at New Mexico, at Wyoming, or at home vs a very good Utah team.
I think 7 wins are possible, 6 wins are realistic, and 5 wins are likely. A five-win season would continue a win-total improvement of a game each season under Long. Six wins would probably not have been enough for a bowl last year but could be in 2008 because there are a couple more post-season games. A lot of things will have to go right, including health and the development of the offensive line, for the Aztecs to finish 7-5.
That said, no matter what you read, Long is not on the hot seat this season. Unless this fall brings a complete disaster, including another loss to Cal Poly, then Long will stick around to see what 2009 brings. This upcoming season is the year his recruits get their feet wet. The next season will be the one in which Long and his staff are judged.
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Winning Streaks by Bad Padres Nothing New
After five straight wins, including a four-game series sweep of the Mets and a league record four consecutive wins by a score of 2-1, a lesson in Padres history is in order.
The Padres once won 14 games in a row. In that glorious streak, they twice swept three-game sets from the Dodgers, took four straight from the Rockies and began the string with a three-game sweep of the Pirates. They won one more in Colorado before the streak ended in a 12-10 slugfest.
Among the interesting things about the streak, Matt Clement and Brian Boehringer each won three games. The first game saw savior-to-never-be Ruben Rivera knock two home runs. Rivera homered and doubled in a win over LA to raise his batting average to .208. The Padres scored 13 runs at the Q vs Colorado when Rockies pitchers issued 10 walks. In another game vs the Rox, Damian Jackson stole five bases. The Padres beat the Dodgers on an RBI single by Jackson in the 12th inning. Trevor Hoffman saved the first five wins and nine of the 14.
Alas, the final victory in the streak merely evened the Padres record at 39-39 and pulled them within 5 games of the first place Giants. The year was 1999, a season removed from the World Series and the beginning of a tailspin that would keep postseason baseball out of America’s Finest City until 2005.
The Padres finished that season 74-88. That number again – 14 – games below .500 in fourth place.
So we have history now that bad Friars teams can put together nice winning streaks. Maybe they’ll continue to improve through 2008 and actually put pressure on the suddenly vulnerable Diamondbacks. As the history lesson demonstrates, maybe not.
One of the nice stories of the baseball season so far is the rise of Red Sox rookie P Justin Masterson, who played at San Diego State. He’s 2-0 after three starts, has allowed just 11 hits in 18 innings and has struck out 14 batters.
Call him a late-bloomer. In his only season on the Mesa, Masterson was 6-7 with an ERA of 4.81. There’s been better pitchers at SDSU, but he appears to have a great pro future ahead of him.
Monday, June 02, 2008
Hoffman, Prior Prove to be Mortal; Gwynn
Among the many things not in the blueprint for the San Diego Padres this year was baseball mortality for star closer Trevor Hoffman and once-time ace starter Mark Prior.
I don't think anyone expected Hoffman to be what he once was, but I don't think anyone believed that 2008's precipitous decline would happen, either. True that in Sunday's blown save opportunity, the Giants never hit a ball hard and that he'd converted his previous eight save opportunities. But he also lost two games in that stretch and gave up five hits and two runs in a pair of innings pitched against Cincinnati. His ERA is up to 5.68 and he's allowed 27 baserunners in 19 innings -- not good when you're normally brought in at the beginning of the ninth.
Like the last time this came up, in April when he was struggling, I don't advocate replacing Hoffman right now. The Giants seeing-eye singles and Edgar Gonzalez' misplay could very well be an aberration, and Hoffman deserves the chance to prove that such was the case. But, like before, we have to keep a close eye on him and not keep running him out there so he can lose leads -- which for the Padres are preciously few.
One of the advantages that Manager Bud Black has right now, which he didn't have in April, is an effective Heath Bell, who in his last seven appearances has allowed no runs, three hits and one walk. Black should accord Bell the occasional save opportunity no matter what Hoffman is up to.
Prior, meanwhile, will have season-ending surgery on his shoulder before ever coming close to making a return to the mound. It was a high-stakes gamble for the Padres to sign him in the first place, where if he'd returned to health and form, he'd be a real asset for the pitching staff. Alas, it didn't happen. I think it was a worthy try by the front office. However, I now wonder whether the USDHS alum will ever be able to pitch again.
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It's June. Do you know where your Chase Headley is? The youngster hit his 10th home run for AAA Portland Sunday and has a .306 batting average. Time to stick him in Petco.
Seems to me this is the day I previously mentioned for his call up.
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Tony Gwynn has just completed his sixth year as the head baseball coach at San Diego State, and if that's not proof that times flies, nothing is. Speaking of things unexpected, Gwynn has not built SDSU into a perennial post-season ball club. Circumstances dictate that he should be given a seventh year at the helm of the program, but for him to have an eighth, his Aztecs darn well better be playing in June.
Gwynn's Aztecs have been a portrait in mediocrity, frankly. They have years that they can't pitch, others when they can't hit and still others when fielding blunders cost them mightily.
He gets a pass for this year's failure to reach the NCAA Regionals because they lost nearly their entire pitching staff from the previous season. They brought in a bunch of new guys, and like first-year players, many of them struggled. Sophomore Stephen Strasburg became a first-team All-American as named by Collegiate Baseball, but everyone else struggled. Much of the conference season saw Strasburg shut out the Aztecs opponent on Friday night, followed by two weekend games in which the other team scored in double digits. Hard to fault Gwynn for a full-scale change in the pitching staff.
Next year, though, he either gets these pitchers "coached up" and some of his young sluggers performing consistently, or the program is going to need to make a change.
There is no excuse whatsoever for the Aztecs to not win the pathetic Mountain West Conference regular season and/or tournament title with its automatic bid four out of every six years. Every so often, BYU and TCU will be good enough to snag a championship. So be it.
Gwynn only has won a regular season championship in his first season and has yet to guide the Aztecs to the NCAA Regionals. His seat is now hot.
I don't think anyone expected Hoffman to be what he once was, but I don't think anyone believed that 2008's precipitous decline would happen, either. True that in Sunday's blown save opportunity, the Giants never hit a ball hard and that he'd converted his previous eight save opportunities. But he also lost two games in that stretch and gave up five hits and two runs in a pair of innings pitched against Cincinnati. His ERA is up to 5.68 and he's allowed 27 baserunners in 19 innings -- not good when you're normally brought in at the beginning of the ninth.
Like the last time this came up, in April when he was struggling, I don't advocate replacing Hoffman right now. The Giants seeing-eye singles and Edgar Gonzalez' misplay could very well be an aberration, and Hoffman deserves the chance to prove that such was the case. But, like before, we have to keep a close eye on him and not keep running him out there so he can lose leads -- which for the Padres are preciously few.
One of the advantages that Manager Bud Black has right now, which he didn't have in April, is an effective Heath Bell, who in his last seven appearances has allowed no runs, three hits and one walk. Black should accord Bell the occasional save opportunity no matter what Hoffman is up to.
Prior, meanwhile, will have season-ending surgery on his shoulder before ever coming close to making a return to the mound. It was a high-stakes gamble for the Padres to sign him in the first place, where if he'd returned to health and form, he'd be a real asset for the pitching staff. Alas, it didn't happen. I think it was a worthy try by the front office. However, I now wonder whether the USDHS alum will ever be able to pitch again.
---
It's June. Do you know where your Chase Headley is? The youngster hit his 10th home run for AAA Portland Sunday and has a .306 batting average. Time to stick him in Petco.
Seems to me this is the day I previously mentioned for his call up.
---
Tony Gwynn has just completed his sixth year as the head baseball coach at San Diego State, and if that's not proof that times flies, nothing is. Speaking of things unexpected, Gwynn has not built SDSU into a perennial post-season ball club. Circumstances dictate that he should be given a seventh year at the helm of the program, but for him to have an eighth, his Aztecs darn well better be playing in June.
Gwynn's Aztecs have been a portrait in mediocrity, frankly. They have years that they can't pitch, others when they can't hit and still others when fielding blunders cost them mightily.
He gets a pass for this year's failure to reach the NCAA Regionals because they lost nearly their entire pitching staff from the previous season. They brought in a bunch of new guys, and like first-year players, many of them struggled. Sophomore Stephen Strasburg became a first-team All-American as named by Collegiate Baseball, but everyone else struggled. Much of the conference season saw Strasburg shut out the Aztecs opponent on Friday night, followed by two weekend games in which the other team scored in double digits. Hard to fault Gwynn for a full-scale change in the pitching staff.
Next year, though, he either gets these pitchers "coached up" and some of his young sluggers performing consistently, or the program is going to need to make a change.
There is no excuse whatsoever for the Aztecs to not win the pathetic Mountain West Conference regular season and/or tournament title with its automatic bid four out of every six years. Every so often, BYU and TCU will be good enough to snag a championship. So be it.
Gwynn only has won a regular season championship in his first season and has yet to guide the Aztecs to the NCAA Regionals. His seat is now hot.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
"Wholesale Changes" For Padres Cut to the Bone
An angry Padres' General Manager Kevin Towers threatened to make wholesale changes to the roster after yet another loss Monday night as several players passed by where he was talking to reporters.
I would bet that part of this was a ploy to motivate the players -- make them worry about their jobs -- or that they'd have to spend the summer in Cincinnati rather than Southern California. If not, then maybe wholesale changes are really coming.
Here's my analysis for what that means.
First, as always for a team considering roster changes, you have to list the untouchables. I count three: Jake Peavy, Chris Young and -- for sentimental reasons only -- Trevor Hoffman.
Second, the players you'd rather not lose if you don't have to are Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and maybe Shawn Estes. You don't get better by losing your young talent in the first two instances. In the latter, Estes has gone through so much in the past two years as a Padres property that it would be nice for him to get his payoff with the team that stayed with him.
Finally, the bubble, the players you'd rather not lose but very well might are Heath Bell and Khalil Greene. Sure, Bell has struggled this season after throwing a ton of innings in 2007 but he's better than anyone else in the bullpen. Teams aiming for a pennant race will love a right-handed setup man who has the ability to close when called upon. Greene's mental approach -- by far his biggest problem in my book -- could change outside Petco Park so he would be tantalizing to a ballclub in a pennant race with needs at short.
Everyone else, including minor leaguer Chase Headley, is up for grabs. My bet is that only those listed above, plus a still sometimes effective Greg Maddux and maybe, maybe, Randy Wolf, would return someone worth having.
The Padres front office really needs to keep their eyes on the ball, their long-term plan to rebuild the organization top to bottom. No sense trading minor league talent for a major leaguer to help in this lost cause of a season. I'd much rather see Towers package a couple big leaguers for a quality minor league prospect.
With the Padres being set for the future at the top of the rotation, I'd like to see Towers acquire a young pitcher with number three starter potential, and a couple of position prospects.
The playoffs were never in the cards this season, though I don't think anyone outside radio talk show host Lee Hamilton -- let's give credit where it's due -- foresaw how bad things would get. Towers and the rest of the front office were blindsided, that we know. I just hope that all the losing doesn't force any desperation moves.
I would bet that part of this was a ploy to motivate the players -- make them worry about their jobs -- or that they'd have to spend the summer in Cincinnati rather than Southern California. If not, then maybe wholesale changes are really coming.
Here's my analysis for what that means.
First, as always for a team considering roster changes, you have to list the untouchables. I count three: Jake Peavy, Chris Young and -- for sentimental reasons only -- Trevor Hoffman.
Second, the players you'd rather not lose if you don't have to are Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and maybe Shawn Estes. You don't get better by losing your young talent in the first two instances. In the latter, Estes has gone through so much in the past two years as a Padres property that it would be nice for him to get his payoff with the team that stayed with him.
Finally, the bubble, the players you'd rather not lose but very well might are Heath Bell and Khalil Greene. Sure, Bell has struggled this season after throwing a ton of innings in 2007 but he's better than anyone else in the bullpen. Teams aiming for a pennant race will love a right-handed setup man who has the ability to close when called upon. Greene's mental approach -- by far his biggest problem in my book -- could change outside Petco Park so he would be tantalizing to a ballclub in a pennant race with needs at short.
Everyone else, including minor leaguer Chase Headley, is up for grabs. My bet is that only those listed above, plus a still sometimes effective Greg Maddux and maybe, maybe, Randy Wolf, would return someone worth having.
The Padres front office really needs to keep their eyes on the ball, their long-term plan to rebuild the organization top to bottom. No sense trading minor league talent for a major leaguer to help in this lost cause of a season. I'd much rather see Towers package a couple big leaguers for a quality minor league prospect.
With the Padres being set for the future at the top of the rotation, I'd like to see Towers acquire a young pitcher with number three starter potential, and a couple of position prospects.
The playoffs were never in the cards this season, though I don't think anyone outside radio talk show host Lee Hamilton -- let's give credit where it's due -- foresaw how bad things would get. Towers and the rest of the front office were blindsided, that we know. I just hope that all the losing doesn't force any desperation moves.
Friday, May 16, 2008
XTRA 1360 Disappoints in Ratings
All you need to know about the failure of XTRA Sports AM-1360 to score in the winter Arbitron ratings (as noted in The San Diego Union-Tribune, second item) can be found on the station's Web page, which is xtrasports1360.com
First is the title, which includes the number 1360. Generally, anything to the right of 1200 on the AM dial is considered to be a graveyard. Because of physics, signals are weaker the higher you go in frequency. So stronger stations migrate down the dial toward 600 (very strong KOGO), and 760 (oft-strong KFMB). It's why you could hear the old XTRA 690 "from Baja to the Canadian Rockies" but can't listen to the new XTRA in Rancho Bernardo.
Actually, I'm being conservative in calling everything to the right of 1200 a graveyard. KNX 1070 in Los Angeles is the only major 4-digit station I can think of off-hand.
Second, look at the front page of the site. The centerpiece rotates promotions for the Dave & Jeff morning show that includes NBA and NHL players -- leagues in which San Diego is not represented -- a Dallas Cowboy and a baseball player whom I think is wearing a uniform of the Baltimore Orioles. Then comes the Babe of the Day and an NBA playoff bracket.
Elsewhere on the front page are national sports headlines, links to non-sports features like Angelina Jolie admitting that she's having twins, a link to a page of national baseball stories, links to has-been rock groups like Def Leppard and Dokken and a link to photographs of young women who've taken digital photographs of themselves in various states of undress.
One look at this page and you immediately get the idea that these guys aren't exactly serious about local sports.
Go deeper into the Web pages of the hosts and only a couple comments were actually posted this week. One or two on the Padres. One apologizes for not updating recently and states that he hopes to update once a week. That was posted April 7 -- his most recent post.
Now, they're much better on the air than the Web site reflects and the ratings shutout demonstrates. The weak signal and Clear Channel's lack of promotion is killing them. I've met and like Jeff Dotseth, Mike Costa, Craig Elsten and Brian Wilson -- someone who interned for me when he was in college and for whom I hope nothing but the best. Things aren't working out as they are now, that's for sure. One of the easiest and least expensive ways to attract an audience will be actually having some local sports information on the station's Web site.
---
There is a major outside factor working against XTRA, and 1090 which fell in the winter book, and ESPN Radio, which I'm not sure has ever made the cut. That's a lack of compelling local sports stories out there. The winter book basically covers San Diego State men's basketball a team which performed well below expectations. People are generally satisfied with the Chargers. The Padres stink. No one cares about Aztecs football anymore.
By comparison, when I ran SanDiegoSportsTown.com, my cup runneth over in great stories at the pro, college and high school levels. There are still some interesting things going on, like the Torrey Pines swimmers who have a shot at the Olympics and the SDSU softball team, but nothing you can base an entire sports radio station on.
The thing that could save XTRA would be a big SDSU football season, but that's not likely until the fall of 2009. By then, it could be too late.
---
Funniest statement of the week: Padres manager Bud Black offering so much praise for Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster. No, Bud, your team would struggle at the plate in AAA.
First is the title, which includes the number 1360. Generally, anything to the right of 1200 on the AM dial is considered to be a graveyard. Because of physics, signals are weaker the higher you go in frequency. So stronger stations migrate down the dial toward 600 (very strong KOGO), and 760 (oft-strong KFMB). It's why you could hear the old XTRA 690 "from Baja to the Canadian Rockies" but can't listen to the new XTRA in Rancho Bernardo.
Actually, I'm being conservative in calling everything to the right of 1200 a graveyard. KNX 1070 in Los Angeles is the only major 4-digit station I can think of off-hand.
Second, look at the front page of the site. The centerpiece rotates promotions for the Dave & Jeff morning show that includes NBA and NHL players -- leagues in which San Diego is not represented -- a Dallas Cowboy and a baseball player whom I think is wearing a uniform of the Baltimore Orioles. Then comes the Babe of the Day and an NBA playoff bracket.
Elsewhere on the front page are national sports headlines, links to non-sports features like Angelina Jolie admitting that she's having twins, a link to a page of national baseball stories, links to has-been rock groups like Def Leppard and Dokken and a link to photographs of young women who've taken digital photographs of themselves in various states of undress.
One look at this page and you immediately get the idea that these guys aren't exactly serious about local sports.
Go deeper into the Web pages of the hosts and only a couple comments were actually posted this week. One or two on the Padres. One apologizes for not updating recently and states that he hopes to update once a week. That was posted April 7 -- his most recent post.
Now, they're much better on the air than the Web site reflects and the ratings shutout demonstrates. The weak signal and Clear Channel's lack of promotion is killing them. I've met and like Jeff Dotseth, Mike Costa, Craig Elsten and Brian Wilson -- someone who interned for me when he was in college and for whom I hope nothing but the best. Things aren't working out as they are now, that's for sure. One of the easiest and least expensive ways to attract an audience will be actually having some local sports information on the station's Web site.
---
There is a major outside factor working against XTRA, and 1090 which fell in the winter book, and ESPN Radio, which I'm not sure has ever made the cut. That's a lack of compelling local sports stories out there. The winter book basically covers San Diego State men's basketball a team which performed well below expectations. People are generally satisfied with the Chargers. The Padres stink. No one cares about Aztecs football anymore.
By comparison, when I ran SanDiegoSportsTown.com, my cup runneth over in great stories at the pro, college and high school levels. There are still some interesting things going on, like the Torrey Pines swimmers who have a shot at the Olympics and the SDSU softball team, but nothing you can base an entire sports radio station on.
The thing that could save XTRA would be a big SDSU football season, but that's not likely until the fall of 2009. By then, it could be too late.
---
Funniest statement of the week: Padres manager Bud Black offering so much praise for Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster. No, Bud, your team would struggle at the plate in AAA.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Trade The Padres Have to Make
While I've mentioned that the Padres should and probably will keep their roster moves to a minimum, there is one trade that I think needs to be made. They need to acquire Tony Gwynn Jr. from Milwaukee.
Gwynn has been unable to bust into an outfield of Mike Cameron, Corey Hart and converted 3B Ben Braun in Milwaukee and has just come off the disabled list. He's hitting .304 in limited action this season after two straight .260 campaigns. He can run and play defense, which is desperately needed at Petco Park. Put him at the top of the lineup, move Jody Gerut to LF and then maybe you have something that might work. It's at least worth trying.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee's staff ERA is in the bottom quarter of all major league baseball teams and they haven't collected a win from a starter other than Ben Sheets since the first week of the season. Eric Gagne, who we'll address in a second, has blown several save opportunities. The Padres can give up Justin Germano or Randy Wolf without too much pain, or Shawn Estes or Wilfredo Ledezma.
The timing is also good for two other reasons:
1. The Padres plan to send Callix Crabbe to the minors early this week. As a Rule V guy, he has to be offered back to Milwaukee first, so the Padres plan to work out a deal. Padres get Gwynn and keep Crabbe, Brewers get a pitcher or two.
2. Weekday attendance is way down and fans are either sniping at the Padres or laughing at them. Neither one is good. Bringing Gwynn home would be a feel-good move as well as a smart baseball play.
---
Luke Carlin. The Padres call him up from the minors and stick him behind the plate. They win twice. Keep him there. The guy knows how to play.
I like Gerut, too. Seems more comfortable after his AAA stint.
---
Roger Clemens is the poster boy for the baseball steroids controversy and that's fine. I have no idea whom to believe so I'll wait for the evidence to come out.
The issue that affected us more directly as Padres fans is Eric Gagne, who if he's not the poster child, should have a small insert of his bespectacled face on a lower corner of Clemens' leg or something. In 2002, Gagne went from average starter to spectacular closer, saving 52, 55, and 45 games in consecutive seasons as the Dodgers placed third, second and first in the National League West. The Dodgers collapsed into fourth place in 2005 when he was injured.
I think it's safe to say that since LA won the division in 2004 by only two games over San Francisco, that a fueled-up Gagne was the reason why, so their division title and all records thereof should be stripped. With Barry Bonds in San Francisco, the 2004 NL West title should either be vacated entirely or handed to the third-place Padres, who were six games back in the standings.
Major League Baseball doesn't do such things, though, as the NCAA and college conferences do. College teams have their titles stripped all the time for rules violations. MLB shrugs, which is why things build up to a point where they get out of hand, like in the steroids controversy.
---
OF Carlos Quentin, the University of San Diego High School graduate now with the Chicago White Sox, is leading the American League with 9 HR and that new on-base percentage plus slugging percentage statistic, and is among the league leaders in runs scored, total bases and RBIs. He also leads in being beaned.
Good news, bad news for Padres fans:
Quentin could have been doing this for the Diamondbacks, but they sent him packing to give Justin Upton his shot. But between the D-backs outfield castoffs, the Padres ended up with Scott Hairston instead of the local kid. Quentin would be doing none of this at Petco, but he's playing better than Hairston.
---
There you go, a San Diego County outfield for the Padres: Quentin-Gwynn-Giles, San Diego-Poway-El Cajon. Oh, well.
Gwynn has been unable to bust into an outfield of Mike Cameron, Corey Hart and converted 3B Ben Braun in Milwaukee and has just come off the disabled list. He's hitting .304 in limited action this season after two straight .260 campaigns. He can run and play defense, which is desperately needed at Petco Park. Put him at the top of the lineup, move Jody Gerut to LF and then maybe you have something that might work. It's at least worth trying.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee's staff ERA is in the bottom quarter of all major league baseball teams and they haven't collected a win from a starter other than Ben Sheets since the first week of the season. Eric Gagne, who we'll address in a second, has blown several save opportunities. The Padres can give up Justin Germano or Randy Wolf without too much pain, or Shawn Estes or Wilfredo Ledezma.
The timing is also good for two other reasons:
1. The Padres plan to send Callix Crabbe to the minors early this week. As a Rule V guy, he has to be offered back to Milwaukee first, so the Padres plan to work out a deal. Padres get Gwynn and keep Crabbe, Brewers get a pitcher or two.
2. Weekday attendance is way down and fans are either sniping at the Padres or laughing at them. Neither one is good. Bringing Gwynn home would be a feel-good move as well as a smart baseball play.
---
Luke Carlin. The Padres call him up from the minors and stick him behind the plate. They win twice. Keep him there. The guy knows how to play.
I like Gerut, too. Seems more comfortable after his AAA stint.
---
Roger Clemens is the poster boy for the baseball steroids controversy and that's fine. I have no idea whom to believe so I'll wait for the evidence to come out.
The issue that affected us more directly as Padres fans is Eric Gagne, who if he's not the poster child, should have a small insert of his bespectacled face on a lower corner of Clemens' leg or something. In 2002, Gagne went from average starter to spectacular closer, saving 52, 55, and 45 games in consecutive seasons as the Dodgers placed third, second and first in the National League West. The Dodgers collapsed into fourth place in 2005 when he was injured.
I think it's safe to say that since LA won the division in 2004 by only two games over San Francisco, that a fueled-up Gagne was the reason why, so their division title and all records thereof should be stripped. With Barry Bonds in San Francisco, the 2004 NL West title should either be vacated entirely or handed to the third-place Padres, who were six games back in the standings.
Major League Baseball doesn't do such things, though, as the NCAA and college conferences do. College teams have their titles stripped all the time for rules violations. MLB shrugs, which is why things build up to a point where they get out of hand, like in the steroids controversy.
---
OF Carlos Quentin, the University of San Diego High School graduate now with the Chicago White Sox, is leading the American League with 9 HR and that new on-base percentage plus slugging percentage statistic, and is among the league leaders in runs scored, total bases and RBIs. He also leads in being beaned.
Good news, bad news for Padres fans:
Quentin could have been doing this for the Diamondbacks, but they sent him packing to give Justin Upton his shot. But between the D-backs outfield castoffs, the Padres ended up with Scott Hairston instead of the local kid. Quentin would be doing none of this at Petco, but he's playing better than Hairston.
---
There you go, a San Diego County outfield for the Padres: Quentin-Gwynn-Giles, San Diego-Poway-El Cajon. Oh, well.
Friday, May 09, 2008
Padres Release Edmonds; Make Room For Chase
The Padres, as expected, cut ties Friday with CF Jim Edmonds, the free agent pickup who was batting just .178 with a home run and 6 RBI through yesterday. They promoted Jody Gerut from AAA Portland, where he was batting .308 with 5 dingers and 18 RBI.
That much you probably already know.
Here's the real news. Clear room in LF for Chase Headley. He's coming soon.
Headley, as mentioned several times in this blog, got off to a rotten start in Portland, coming off a 2007 when he was the AA Player of the Year. Forget the bad start. As recognized in Baseball America, Headley is hitting .516 in May after a 5-for-5 performance Thursday. The hot streak includes 3 doubles and a home run.
The Padres still should keep him in the minor leagues as long as possible, if some sort of Paul McAnulty/Scott Hairston platoon can be productive in left field. Unless those two drop deeper into the tank, the Friars can probably afford to keep him in the minors until the end of May. But June 1 is kind of a marker in baseball, akin to the trading deadline and deadline for playoff rosters. Unless PMac or Hairston go on a tear, look for Headley in left in Petco in time for a June 2 contest against Chicago.
---
All the talk lately has been about the moves the Padres have to make to keep from worsening the majors' worst record. Besides the release of Edmonds and the upcoming promotion of Headley, don't look for much else.
No other minor leaguers appear to merit promotion at this time. Only Kenny Lofton appears enticing as a free agent. And with a lot of baseball teams hovering around the .500 mark, the Padres are the only franchise in the trade market. Even if the trade market was more active, the Friars really have nothing of value to offer. The majors team stinks, and the promising youngsters are either in AA or just hit AAA this season.
The Padres will make some adjustments on the 2008 roster where they can, but will otherwise stick to their long-term plan. That's the correct course given their circumstances. As for me, when do the Chargers and Aztecs preseason camps start?
That much you probably already know.
Here's the real news. Clear room in LF for Chase Headley. He's coming soon.
Headley, as mentioned several times in this blog, got off to a rotten start in Portland, coming off a 2007 when he was the AA Player of the Year. Forget the bad start. As recognized in Baseball America, Headley is hitting .516 in May after a 5-for-5 performance Thursday. The hot streak includes 3 doubles and a home run.
The Padres still should keep him in the minor leagues as long as possible, if some sort of Paul McAnulty/Scott Hairston platoon can be productive in left field. Unless those two drop deeper into the tank, the Friars can probably afford to keep him in the minors until the end of May. But June 1 is kind of a marker in baseball, akin to the trading deadline and deadline for playoff rosters. Unless PMac or Hairston go on a tear, look for Headley in left in Petco in time for a June 2 contest against Chicago.
---
All the talk lately has been about the moves the Padres have to make to keep from worsening the majors' worst record. Besides the release of Edmonds and the upcoming promotion of Headley, don't look for much else.
No other minor leaguers appear to merit promotion at this time. Only Kenny Lofton appears enticing as a free agent. And with a lot of baseball teams hovering around the .500 mark, the Padres are the only franchise in the trade market. Even if the trade market was more active, the Friars really have nothing of value to offer. The majors team stinks, and the promising youngsters are either in AA or just hit AAA this season.
The Padres will make some adjustments on the 2008 roster where they can, but will otherwise stick to their long-term plan. That's the correct course given their circumstances. As for me, when do the Chargers and Aztecs preseason camps start?
Monday, May 05, 2008
Newspaper Pulling No Punches on Padres
Usually news writers are a little cautious in how they characterize their subjects. They'll quote the opinions of others for example, so they don't have to directly say what they think. Not so with The San Diego Union-Tribune's coverage of the Padres this year. Primary beat writer Tom Krasovic thinks the Friars suck and isn't afraid to come right out and say so.
Just today, in a recap of the Padres 10-3 loss at Florida Sunday, he called the team "unathletic" and "slow-footed." There's plenty of other examples of Krasovic directly smacking the Padres. He's also slanting his coverage in items about the Padres getting desperate, about how poor scouting and poor drafting has hurt the franchise, etc.
Now, Krasovic is right on the money with his analysis. I have no problem with that at all. His approach, very direct, is interesting.
His colleague, Chris Jenkins, who covers baseball in general, added to the chorus Sunday by basically saying the Padres were out of the race in the National League West. Of course, it's way too early, but we've seen the Friars and we've seen the Diamondbacks. Okay, the race is all but over.
---
If my memory is correct, the reason why the Padres brass soured on former manager Bruce Bochy was his reluctance to play youngsters, favoring veterans instead.
Fast forward to this season and you can see where the front office placed too much faith in this year's aging former stars. Brian Giles is down to .259, not playing too well defensively and was caught in a rundown -- who'd have thunk? -- on Sunday; Khalil Greene is at .220 with a single home run and Jim Edmonds, likely to go down as one of the Padres worst free agent signings ever is at .177 with just 6 RBI.
Some of the pitchers are just as bad. Glendon Rusch and Trevor Hoffman both have ERAs over 6. Greg Maddux is 0-3 with a no decision in his past four starts in his quest for 350 victories. Yesterday, and in another start he got pounded.
I have a bigger problem with the position players than the pitchers at this point. We've seen Trevor struggle previously and work his way out of it. Maddux can be vulnerable if he's not perfect on every pitch, but usually is masterful. Giles and Edmonds are on the downsides of their career, though, and Greene appears very likely to never fulfill his vast potential, at least not in San Diego.
---
What troubles me about this season is not so much that the 2008 Padres are bad, but that the minor league hot shots expected to replace the current major leaguers over the next two years are stalling out in AAA Portland. The numbers for Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli are about what they were in previous posts. P Wade LeBlanc is also having a hard time.
I'm all for keeping with the long term plan to wait for the minor leaguers to develop, but if they don't in fact develop, the Padres could suck for the next decade.
Just today, in a recap of the Padres 10-3 loss at Florida Sunday, he called the team "unathletic" and "slow-footed." There's plenty of other examples of Krasovic directly smacking the Padres. He's also slanting his coverage in items about the Padres getting desperate, about how poor scouting and poor drafting has hurt the franchise, etc.
Now, Krasovic is right on the money with his analysis. I have no problem with that at all. His approach, very direct, is interesting.
His colleague, Chris Jenkins, who covers baseball in general, added to the chorus Sunday by basically saying the Padres were out of the race in the National League West. Of course, it's way too early, but we've seen the Friars and we've seen the Diamondbacks. Okay, the race is all but over.
---
If my memory is correct, the reason why the Padres brass soured on former manager Bruce Bochy was his reluctance to play youngsters, favoring veterans instead.
Fast forward to this season and you can see where the front office placed too much faith in this year's aging former stars. Brian Giles is down to .259, not playing too well defensively and was caught in a rundown -- who'd have thunk? -- on Sunday; Khalil Greene is at .220 with a single home run and Jim Edmonds, likely to go down as one of the Padres worst free agent signings ever is at .177 with just 6 RBI.
Some of the pitchers are just as bad. Glendon Rusch and Trevor Hoffman both have ERAs over 6. Greg Maddux is 0-3 with a no decision in his past four starts in his quest for 350 victories. Yesterday, and in another start he got pounded.
I have a bigger problem with the position players than the pitchers at this point. We've seen Trevor struggle previously and work his way out of it. Maddux can be vulnerable if he's not perfect on every pitch, but usually is masterful. Giles and Edmonds are on the downsides of their career, though, and Greene appears very likely to never fulfill his vast potential, at least not in San Diego.
---
What troubles me about this season is not so much that the 2008 Padres are bad, but that the minor league hot shots expected to replace the current major leaguers over the next two years are stalling out in AAA Portland. The numbers for Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli are about what they were in previous posts. P Wade LeBlanc is also having a hard time.
I'm all for keeping with the long term plan to wait for the minor leaguers to develop, but if they don't in fact develop, the Padres could suck for the next decade.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Don't Blow up Powerless Padres, Draft
As the Padres begin the week in last place in the National League West, 8 1/2 games behind front-running Arizona, it's tempting to want to blow things up and start over. But this is the wrong year for hysteria, the wrong time for rash moves.
A couple of the guys who are struggling, 2B Tadahito Iguchi and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, are just as likely to catch fire in the next couple of weeks as anything. SS Kahlil Greene, who has yet to hit a fair ball over an outfield fence, we know he's streaky.
The real problems with the Padres are with their over-the-hill and never-was outfield. Brian Giles has been decent with 3 HR and 15 RBI and 14 BB in the leadoff slot, but is batting just .255. The other three in the rotation: Jim Edmonds is at .164-1-6, Scott Hairston is .184-2-6, and Paul McAnulty is .231-2-6. I have no faith, as I do the struggling infielders, that they will turn things around. That said, McAnulty looks like the best of the group not named Giles.
Huge changes right now would be a mistake, however. The Padres have in place a long-term plan and they need to stick to it. The Chase Headley spring training experiment was a tease. The fact is, he needs significant time in AAA before coming up to the big club. His current line of .222-1-8 in Portland tells lots. Same with Matt Antonelli (.216-2-6) and C Nick Hundley (.245-4-7).
You're not going to get lightning in a bottle from the kids this year, so a free agent signing or trade would seem to be in order.
Jake Peavy might be onto something by suggesting a pickup of 40-year-old Kenny Lofton for the outfield. He hit a combined .296 with 7 HR for Texas and Cleveland last year and is not on a roster right now. He also stole an un-Friarlike 23 bases. Lofton would, like Edmonds, be a placeholder for the future and certainly could not be any worse. Plus, according to the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, he is working out at his home in Arizona with hopes of playing more. The team brass will have to admit they whiffed on Edmonds, which could make such a signing impossible.
I wouldn't go much farther in changing up the club. No, no Barry Bonds.
A trade would require exchanging young talent for immediate help and that goes against the plan. No one is going to help the Padres take Edmonds or Hairston off their hands. Not happening. Sending Nick Hundley somewhere else for a guy who hits .245 instead of .160 won't do much for the franchise's future.
So, aside from taking Peavy up on the Lofton idea, I'd bite the bullet and not make more than some minor adjustments. Let the future of the franchise remain the future and develop according to their needs, not ours. That means the 2008 season is over, but no one really expected to compete anyway.
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I have to admit I like what the Chargers pulled out of the NFL draft, despite their inability to choose an offensive lineman until their last pick. The fact is, everyone they wanted at tackle and at corner -- their main desires heading into the affair -- were gone by the time they got to the 27th selection of the first round. Antoine Cason was what remained, and they got a four-year starter in college who should be a solid nickel corner. Jacob Hester was a fine running back, at a position where they needed some depth but obviously were not desperate with the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson around.
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Perhaps the biggest surprise of the draft was that four San Diego State players were taken, when pre-draft projections only had two -- one of whom ended up not being among the lucky four.
QB Kevin O'Connell was rewarded for his skills, leadership and personality with a third-round selection. The fortunes of football are such that he was taken by the New England Patriots. So the love-fest is over. We have to hate him now. How does one actually go about rooting against Kevin O'Connell? Really. That's going to be a difficult proposition.
Tyler Schmitt has been rated throughout his Aztec career as one of the nation's best long snappers, so maybe his selection by the Seattle Seahawks was not much of a shock. WRs Brett Swain and Chaz Schilens were also late-round picks.
This brings up the age-old question of: if so many Aztecs go to the NFL, why is the team always so bad? The answer, in a nutshell, is that none of those picked were offensive or defensive linemen. Job one for coach Chuck Long and his staff has been to upgrade the players in the trenches. The upcoming season will reveal their progress in that area.
A couple of the guys who are struggling, 2B Tadahito Iguchi and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, are just as likely to catch fire in the next couple of weeks as anything. SS Kahlil Greene, who has yet to hit a fair ball over an outfield fence, we know he's streaky.
The real problems with the Padres are with their over-the-hill and never-was outfield. Brian Giles has been decent with 3 HR and 15 RBI and 14 BB in the leadoff slot, but is batting just .255. The other three in the rotation: Jim Edmonds is at .164-1-6, Scott Hairston is .184-2-6, and Paul McAnulty is .231-2-6. I have no faith, as I do the struggling infielders, that they will turn things around. That said, McAnulty looks like the best of the group not named Giles.
Huge changes right now would be a mistake, however. The Padres have in place a long-term plan and they need to stick to it. The Chase Headley spring training experiment was a tease. The fact is, he needs significant time in AAA before coming up to the big club. His current line of .222-1-8 in Portland tells lots. Same with Matt Antonelli (.216-2-6) and C Nick Hundley (.245-4-7).
You're not going to get lightning in a bottle from the kids this year, so a free agent signing or trade would seem to be in order.
Jake Peavy might be onto something by suggesting a pickup of 40-year-old Kenny Lofton for the outfield. He hit a combined .296 with 7 HR for Texas and Cleveland last year and is not on a roster right now. He also stole an un-Friarlike 23 bases. Lofton would, like Edmonds, be a placeholder for the future and certainly could not be any worse. Plus, according to the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, he is working out at his home in Arizona with hopes of playing more. The team brass will have to admit they whiffed on Edmonds, which could make such a signing impossible.
I wouldn't go much farther in changing up the club. No, no Barry Bonds.
A trade would require exchanging young talent for immediate help and that goes against the plan. No one is going to help the Padres take Edmonds or Hairston off their hands. Not happening. Sending Nick Hundley somewhere else for a guy who hits .245 instead of .160 won't do much for the franchise's future.
So, aside from taking Peavy up on the Lofton idea, I'd bite the bullet and not make more than some minor adjustments. Let the future of the franchise remain the future and develop according to their needs, not ours. That means the 2008 season is over, but no one really expected to compete anyway.
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I have to admit I like what the Chargers pulled out of the NFL draft, despite their inability to choose an offensive lineman until their last pick. The fact is, everyone they wanted at tackle and at corner -- their main desires heading into the affair -- were gone by the time they got to the 27th selection of the first round. Antoine Cason was what remained, and they got a four-year starter in college who should be a solid nickel corner. Jacob Hester was a fine running back, at a position where they needed some depth but obviously were not desperate with the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson around.
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Perhaps the biggest surprise of the draft was that four San Diego State players were taken, when pre-draft projections only had two -- one of whom ended up not being among the lucky four.
QB Kevin O'Connell was rewarded for his skills, leadership and personality with a third-round selection. The fortunes of football are such that he was taken by the New England Patriots. So the love-fest is over. We have to hate him now. How does one actually go about rooting against Kevin O'Connell? Really. That's going to be a difficult proposition.
Tyler Schmitt has been rated throughout his Aztec career as one of the nation's best long snappers, so maybe his selection by the Seattle Seahawks was not much of a shock. WRs Brett Swain and Chaz Schilens were also late-round picks.
This brings up the age-old question of: if so many Aztecs go to the NFL, why is the team always so bad? The answer, in a nutshell, is that none of those picked were offensive or defensive linemen. Job one for coach Chuck Long and his staff has been to upgrade the players in the trenches. The upcoming season will reveal their progress in that area.
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