Monday, April 28, 2008

Don't Blow up Powerless Padres, Draft

As the Padres begin the week in last place in the National League West, 8 1/2 games behind front-running Arizona, it's tempting to want to blow things up and start over. But this is the wrong year for hysteria, the wrong time for rash moves.

A couple of the guys who are struggling, 2B Tadahito Iguchi and 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, are just as likely to catch fire in the next couple of weeks as anything. SS Kahlil Greene, who has yet to hit a fair ball over an outfield fence, we know he's streaky.

The real problems with the Padres are with their over-the-hill and never-was outfield. Brian Giles has been decent with 3 HR and 15 RBI and 14 BB in the leadoff slot, but is batting just .255. The other three in the rotation: Jim Edmonds is at .164-1-6, Scott Hairston is .184-2-6, and Paul McAnulty is .231-2-6. I have no faith, as I do the struggling infielders, that they will turn things around. That said, McAnulty looks like the best of the group not named Giles.

Huge changes right now would be a mistake, however. The Padres have in place a long-term plan and they need to stick to it. The Chase Headley spring training experiment was a tease. The fact is, he needs significant time in AAA before coming up to the big club. His current line of .222-1-8 in Portland tells lots. Same with Matt Antonelli (.216-2-6) and C Nick Hundley (.245-4-7).

You're not going to get lightning in a bottle from the kids this year, so a free agent signing or trade would seem to be in order.

Jake Peavy might be onto something by suggesting a pickup of 40-year-old Kenny Lofton for the outfield. He hit a combined .296 with 7 HR for Texas and Cleveland last year and is not on a roster right now. He also stole an un-Friarlike 23 bases. Lofton would, like Edmonds, be a placeholder for the future and certainly could not be any worse. Plus, according to the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, he is working out at his home in Arizona with hopes of playing more. The team brass will have to admit they whiffed on Edmonds, which could make such a signing impossible.

I wouldn't go much farther in changing up the club. No, no Barry Bonds.

A trade would require exchanging young talent for immediate help and that goes against the plan. No one is going to help the Padres take Edmonds or Hairston off their hands. Not happening. Sending Nick Hundley somewhere else for a guy who hits .245 instead of .160 won't do much for the franchise's future.

So, aside from taking Peavy up on the Lofton idea, I'd bite the bullet and not make more than some minor adjustments. Let the future of the franchise remain the future and develop according to their needs, not ours. That means the 2008 season is over, but no one really expected to compete anyway.

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I have to admit I like what the Chargers pulled out of the NFL draft, despite their inability to choose an offensive lineman until their last pick. The fact is, everyone they wanted at tackle and at corner -- their main desires heading into the affair -- were gone by the time they got to the 27th selection of the first round. Antoine Cason was what remained, and they got a four-year starter in college who should be a solid nickel corner. Jacob Hester was a fine running back, at a position where they needed some depth but obviously were not desperate with the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson around.

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Perhaps the biggest surprise of the draft was that four San Diego State players were taken, when pre-draft projections only had two -- one of whom ended up not being among the lucky four.

QB Kevin O'Connell was rewarded for his skills, leadership and personality with a third-round selection. The fortunes of football are such that he was taken by the New England Patriots. So the love-fest is over. We have to hate him now. How does one actually go about rooting against Kevin O'Connell? Really. That's going to be a difficult proposition.

Tyler Schmitt has been rated throughout his Aztec career as one of the nation's best long snappers, so maybe his selection by the Seattle Seahawks was not much of a shock. WRs Brett Swain and Chaz Schilens were also late-round picks.

This brings up the age-old question of: if so many Aztecs go to the NFL, why is the team always so bad? The answer, in a nutshell, is that none of those picked were offensive or defensive linemen. Job one for coach Chuck Long and his staff has been to upgrade the players in the trenches. The upcoming season will reveal their progress in that area.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Chargers Need Lineman in Draft

Despite what gets said occasionally in the media, the San Diego Chargers do have a need in this weekend's NFL draft, one that can be filled with their first round pick. They need an offensive lineman.

Right now, the Bolts are set on the left side with Kris Dielman and Marcus McNeill, and are in decent shape at center with Nick Hardwick -- my only reservation with him being injuries. The right side, though, is turning into a liability. Mike Goff is 32 years old and I never heard of Jeromey Clary ever being projected as a starting tackle on a Super Bowl team.

That's what we're talking about, going from a good team that reached the AFC Championship contest to a great one that can maybe host such a game, win, and go on to the Super Bowl. That being the goal, then the Chargers have needs.

While LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 1,474 yards last season, he seemed to be stopped quite a bit early in the season. His backups gained just 380 combined. Philip Rivers was sacked 22 times last year and Billy Volek twice. Tom Brady of New England was sacked one less time than Rivers but threw the ball over a hundred times more through the season. When Rivers wasn't tackled for a loss, he was running for his life quite often.

Both stars, of course, are plying their trade in the uncomfortable parameters of the NFL, where even the weaker defenses can slow rushing attacks and assault quarterbacks. That's why the Bolts need to have as good an offensive line as possible. I felt they were successful last year in spite of their line, not because of them. So help is needed.

Whether General Manager A.J. Smith takes a lineman is questionable. From the moment he set foot in San Diego, he's shown a low regard for blockers. The Chargers paid the price the first few years he and the late-John Butler were here. Plus, dominant linemen coming out of college are few and far-between. The best of them are gone by late in the first round, which is where the Bolts will choose someone. There could very well be a better choice available at linebacker, cornerback or waterboy by the time the 27th pick rolls around. If so, then that's where you go. If a really good lineman is still on the board, then snap him up.

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San Diego State's Kevin O'Connell is ranked as the eighth best QB in the draft and, although I've had my criticisms of him in the past, I'd take him over the first three guys listed above him (Erik Ainge of Tennessee, John David Booty of USC and Andre Woodson of Kentucky). We'll see if the NFL GMs agree. Continuing a pattern of sparse draft talent available on the Mesa, O'Connell will probably be the only Aztec drafted. That's got to change.

USD QB Josh Johnson, the victim of poor workouts, is rated 11th.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Doubles, Departures Support Recent Posts

Tuesday's sports activities vindicated two recent posts on this blog, one in a good way and one bad.

The good: the Padres finally added doubles to their arsenal and look what happened. Three 2-run doubles and they defeat the Rockies 6-0. Brian Giles, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Jim Edmonds, all well overdue for something more than a stream of one-baggers, each came through with a big knock.

Meanwhile, keep your fingers crossed that Randy Wolf is going to continue to be this good and remain healthy. If the Padres are fortunate on both counts, and the slappers become sluggers, they'll be in the race this season. In 19 innings-plus, he's allowed just 10 hits and seven walks. While early free passes ruined his shot later at a no-hitter, he still has an outstanding mark of fewer baserunners than innings pitched.

The bad: three players have left the San Diego State men's basketball program and will transfer to other institutions. The biggest loss was highly regarded G Quinton Watkins, whose perimeter play was being counted on to return the Aztecs to the NCAA Tournament. DJ Gay had a decent freshman season, but Richie Williams regressed as a junior and Kelvin Davis turned out to be all flash and no substance. Watkins, originally recruited by Illinois, was supposed to be a serious upgrade. The news said he left for family reasons. I read it as he came here, saw that SDSU basketball was nowhere close to where he heard it was and ran home screaming. The NIT loss at Florida was all he needed to see.

The other losses were F Jon Pastorek and F Jer'Vaughn Johnson, both role players. Pastorek has a great deal of talent that was wasted in coach Steve Fisher's system, such as it is. I feel bad for the kid that he made the choice to come here. Bad fit. Johnson was a role player who had no hopes for increased playing time, which he could receive by going to a WCC school.

I don't necessarily believe that San Diego State basketball will go no higher under Fisher. No question the program remains on a plateau after these personnel losses. The spring recruit signing season opens today, so we'll see if he's able to bring in someone for the post or a point guard who can actually command the floor. If not, then the plateau could also have a lid on it.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Powerless Players Dooming Padres Efforts

It's not time to push the panic button if you're a Padres fan, certainly not with a plus-.500 record forged against the Astros, Dodgers and Giants. But a disturbing trend is developing that could keep the Friars from contending in the National League West, a division in which Arizona is already 9-3 and threatening a runaway.

The Padres have more hits than any other team in the National League and trail only the Diamondbacks in batting average, by just .007 (all stats after Sunday's games). Yet, the Friars trail the Snakes in runs scored by 36. To put that into perspective, thats 77 runs to 41. Only the Giants among NL clubs have crossed the plate so few times.

Only the Mets and Royals have hit fewer than the Padres 6 home runs. The Pads have just 13 doubles, while most major league teams have 20 or more.

The problem is almost entirely a lack of power, not poor clutch hitting like the last couple of years. Of the regulars, only Josh Bard (.200), Khalil Greene (.167) and 2007's Mr. Clutch Scott Hairston (.000 on 0-for-11) are struggling at the plate with runners in scoring position. Most of the other key players are hitting over .300 in that situation. It just means that the hits they get are only scoring one run at a time, and the next guy is making an out.

I generally like batting coach Wally Joyner's approach, having them take pitches to the opposite field. Marcus Giles might still be playing here if he'd caught on before last September. If they keep it up, the doubles will come and so will the home runs. It just hasn't happened yet, so it's a source of concern.

By the way, if you think that what's happening to the Padres is a matter of facing difficult pitching staffs, take a look at what's happened to opponents when they play someone else. The Dodgers allowed the Padres 7 runs in three games at Petco Park, then gave up 23 in three contests in Phoenix. The Giants surrendered 8 runs to the Padres in their home opener, then held the Friars to 2 runs and pitched a shutout in the next two contests. They got another well-pitched game the next night against St. Louis, then allowed 8 runs in each of the following two contests.

Other teams aren't finding the Dodgers and Giants pitching staffs too difficult to figure out.

The Padres at some point are going to have to add power to the lineup, which means Hairston (2 triples and 2 homers but just 1 double and 4 RBI) or Paul McAnulty (just 5 singles in 22 at-bats and maybe saved his career with Sunday's game-winning sac fly) have to get going. Same with Kouzmanoff , Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles (just 5 extra base hits between them). Otherwise, Chase Headley will get an earlier-than-expected call-up from AAA Portland, where he's batting .250 with just 3 RBI.

I'm also concerned about the bullpen. However, relief pitchers are generally easier to move around. The organization has starters who go rather deep into games and plenty of depth on the mound. So the relief corps should improve as the season moves along.

Whether such improvement means anything will be determined by whether all those singles with runners on second base eventually turn into doubles or home runs.

Friday, April 04, 2008

Grier Smart As Well As Good Coach, More

USD men's basketball coach Bill Grier might have had a chance for a big paycheck by leaving for the open job at Oregon State, but chose not to. He chose wisely.

There are just some places where you're not going to be able to win consistently, and Oregon State is one of them. Athletics is not the top priority in Corvallis, nor should it be. The men's basketball program, to my recollection, has not fielded much in the way of winners since the days of Lonnie Shelton -- father of SDSU's Tim -- back in the 1970s or 1980s.

Even if you were to bring in some good players, the Beavers reside in the Pac-10, where they would have to do battle with behemoths in UCLA, Arizona and Stanford. Oregon is usually pretty good. Plus, Washington State is on an upswing right now. If the Cougars weren't there, Washington, Arizona State or even Cal would. No way is Oregon State going to compete against them for a couple of years at least.

Instead, Grier will stay in San Diego and compete against Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, a far more manageable proposition. The Zags were over-rated this year. The Gaels were pretty good but not great. Depending on how long he stays, he could really make something out of the Toreros and become a big fish in San Diego's pretty large pond. Imagine Grier and the Aztecs' Steve Fisher both putting their teams into NCAA Tournament. This town would go nuts.

However, despite Grier's current good intentions and wise consideration, I don't think he's here for the long term. There is a Pac-10 school close to his roots that will offer him that big paycheck after another season or two. Oregon. The Ducks have been pretty good in recent years. Fans seem to think they should be great. Every so often, I read or hear someone suggest that Ernie Kent is a lousy coach. I don't know that myself first-hand. Could be true, or not. If enough people are down on Kent, and Oregon-native Grier is performing miracles in Alcala Park, then there will be some temptation.

So Grier is being a good guy in staying ... and being smart ... and maybe most of all being patient.

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The theory that SDSU athletic director Jeff Schemmel might leave for Kansas State, where he had roots, just bit the dust. K-State had one of it's vice-presidents take on the AD responsibilities.

That not only keeps Schemmel here, but takes away my notion that it might be a good time to move Fisher upstairs to succeed him.

I still worry about the next Aztecs basketball season. So much promise, but so little reason to believe that expectations will be fulfilled.

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Can the hysterical debate over Padres closer Trevor Hoffman be over? Please?

Look, the guy blew one game. Yeah, it comes after his blown saves at the end of last year, but he's also held the lead at the end of two wins so far in 2008. No question, his status needs monitoring from manager Bud Black. He's north of 40 years old and his stuff isn't what it was. But it's not time to relegate the future Hall of Famer to mop-up duty.

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Chargers Solve Balboa Park Problem and Vice-Versa

The San Diego Chargers want a stadium that's up to current NFL standards, and one of the city's jewels, Balboa Park, is in serious need of major infrastructure overhauls -- and needs a financial impetus to get the work going. It appears to me to be a match made in heaven.

According to a recent article in The San Diego Union-Tribune, a study found that Balboa Park needs 21 different improvement projects at an estimated cost of $238 million. The article suggests that the money is there, but big-dollar donors are holding back to make sure that their contributions will be meaningful.

If the upgrades to the park include a new stadium to the Chargers, San Diego State, the Holiday Bowl and the Poinsettia Bowl, then park improvements will indeed be worthy of our great city. The stadium can bring necessary upgrades to the run-down pool at Morley Field and finally bring San Diego a world-class aquatics facility. The new stadium would be a fine new location for the San Diego Hall of Champions, which would open their nice current digs for something else. There will be improvements to public transportation, such as off-shoots from downtown and Mission Valley trolley lines.

Furthermore, the area the stadium would go, between Morley Field and the Balboa Park Golf Course, bordered by Florida and Pershing drives, is nothing but open land waiting for development.

The big part, obviously, is that the financial package can be worked out to include the many projects needed to upgrade the park's infrastructure.

Naturally, there will be some opposition to this from people with interest in Balboa Park and neighbors in North Park, South Park and Golden Hill. My answers:

-- Plans for upgrading the park have been floated for many years now. The area's general plan was adopted in 1989 and has not been carried out. While city officials sit on their collective duffs, the Chargers can bring the impetus to actually get some work done. They, along with SDSU, will attract people who may not normally come to the park or be aware of all that it has to offer. Which is the point of the existence of the place. Everyone will win if the trolley system is forced to actually run trains somewhere where people like to go, like Balboa Park (and Lindbergh Field, while they're at it).

-- This will bring additional people and their resulting traffic, garbage and some obnoxious behavior to the park, granted. However, the whole idea of having a park, as stated above, is for folks to come and enjoy the place. Balboa Park, along with Mission Bay and proximity to water in general, are the city's prime real estate assets. It would be ignorant to not consider that city officials would seek to maximize their return from their prime possessions. If you live near the park, then you have to accept that changes will be made from time-to-time to attract more visitors. That said, the team should be neighborly and ensure that the stadium has a low profile in order to maintain the beauty of the park and have enough parking/public transportation to avoid inconveniencing area residents. Heck, if I lived there, I'd open my driveway to fans and charge confiscatory rates!

-- The Chargers will be given a real San Diego home and will be able to end the Chula Vista charade, which benefits no one, especially the Bolts and their fans. While the two college bowl games can adjust to wherever a new stadium is located, SDSU cannot. The Aztecs will have to play before 5,000 people, build an on-campus stadium in tight quarters, or fold their football program all together. And remember history, both the Chargers and Aztecs played at Balboa Stadium -- in Balboa Park -- in the early-1960s, so this is not exactly a new idea.

It's a win-win situation as far as I can see. The city of San Diego, thanks to more than a decade of horrible leadership, can do nothing to help either the Chargers or Balboa Park. But the two can help each other, and should quickly.

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Gotta love the Padres' Jake Peavy, maybe the ultimate gamer. He won the season opener almost by himself. Yeah, it's just a single game, but if the Padres can fill the holes in center and right fields, even by the current holders of those positions, then this team really might contend after all. It's a long season, we'll see.

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Re: the Women's Tennis Association buying out the Acura Classic, selling it to interests in Beijing and forcing players to compete there -- another newspaper story -- WTA officials might want to keep a close eye on what's going on with the Olympics. I don't wish any ill will on them for snatching away our only professional tennis tournament but, well, my instinct tells me that they've entered a hornet's nest.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Padres - Outfield, Rotation Rear Still Problematic

Here's how you rate the Padres off-season: when play ended in 2007, the Friars problems were the outfield and the back end of the pitching rotation, and as the games of 2008 are about to begin, the troubles are still the outfield and the last couple starting hurlers.

That's not progress.

GM Kevin Towers and manager Bud Black are confident enough in their outfielders that they sent the organization's top prospect, Chase Headley, to Portland for a month or two of AAA at-bats and fly ball fielding chances and placed CF Jim Edmonds on the 15-day disabled list -- even though he's healthy enough to be back performing in minor league games.

To some extent, I buy into their theory that it would be a setback for Headley if they were to start him in left field now and struggle either at the plate or the field. Remember, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff had some big league experience to use to fight off last year's early slump. Headley does not. Better to recall him as the rescuer in May or June.

But I also get the feeling, since they'd need to send someone else down and risk that unfortunate player to waivers, that Towers and Black are maybe playing it too safe. It seems like they don't know whom to cut. Jody Gerut? Paul McAnulty? Callix Crabbe? They're cut from the same mold, guys trying to hang onto jobs in The Show instead of budding stars capable of leading teams to a championship.

Which brings me to my next point. How many times have we as San Diego State fans been guilty of praising some athlete who manages to stretch his capabilities to accomplish something that should be normal? Isn't it great how that defensive lineman is hanging in there despite being outweighed by 50 pounds? Or how the 6-5 forward is grabbing a couple of rebounds amongst the trees? Well, at the same time they're impressing us, they're getting their butts kicked.

It's nice that Gerut, McAnulty, Crabbe and Scott Hairston are having good springs. But when the season begins on Monday, they're going to be exposed as the marginal players that they are and will get whipped. I'm tempted to throw a past-his-prime Brian Giles into this mix, too. Isn't it great that he's recovered from his injuries and feeling good again? Sure. Let's see how he performs when the lights go on.

Regarding pitching, I'm more than comfortable with Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Duh. Greg Maddux is in such good physical condition, his arm feels so good, and his mechanics are so correct that he might have three effective seasons left in him if he's used properly. Randy Wolf is a real question mark at the four spot. He hasn't tossed 200 innings since 2003 or had an ERA under 4.23 since 2002. In the fifth spot, Justin Germano was lights out for five starts last season. Then hitters figured him out. He's adjusted with an improved change up -- love it! -- but whether he can fool hitters for 25 starts is unlikely. Mark Prior could be a huge asset in the second half of the season, or be worthless. You just don't know.

-- The bullpen should be strong again, although Black will have to be wary of the approaching time that he'll need to swap roles between Trevor Hoffman and Heath Bell.

-- At 1B, I was glad to read that Adrian Gonzalez was as disappointed in his 2007 as I was. Some of his numbers were great, but he can and should be even better. Certainly more consistent hitting with a higher average and fewer strikeouts.

-- 2B perhaps brings potential for the greatest improvement on the team with Tad Iguchi taking over for Marcus Giles. Will be a better fielder and have a good bat in the #2 slot in the batting order.

-- SS Khalil Greene got tons of kudos for his offensive fireworks the last two months of 2007, but hitting that way throughout an entire season would be nice. His approach at the plate can be just awful sometimes. Going into his fifth season as a fulltimer, he could be on the verge of a breakout year. He'll need to cut his 128 strikeouts by 1/4 for that to happen.

-- 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff is into his second season, and sophomore slumps happen. His rookie year was a wonderful thing to watch. Good hitting is all about adjustments, and he made them. He'll need more adjustments this season as pitchers find new holes in his swing. It'll be interesting to see if the youngster can keep pace with his competition.

-- At C, neither Michael Barrett nor Josh Bard offer any excitement, but if the infielders perform up to expectations, then nothing more than solid receivership will be needed here. Any offensive contributions will be a major plus.

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Pitching will keep the Padres around .500. How much over .500 the Friars finish will depend on how the hitters perform. If someone comes through in the OF, if Kouzmanoff avoids the jinx and Greene becomes a full-fledged star, the Padres could challenge again for the National League West title. If not, then well, you know.

The order of things in the division entering the season seems clear, with Arizona and Colorado the cream of the crop, followed by San Diego and Los Angeles, and San Francisco bringing up the rear. What will happen, I think, is the Diamondbacks will win 100 games and run away with it. They go three deep with superstars in the rotation, too, and are solid through their batting order. The Padres and Rockies will battle for 90 wins. The Dodgers, I just don't like their mix. They'll finish over .500 and will overtake the Friars if things don't go well here, but I don't see them as being better than the top dogs. The Giants, uh, yeah. I think I wrote sometime over the winter that the Padres threatened to start a AAA outfield this year, which is coming true. The Giants might have a AA outfield. They will take a lot of low-scoring games into the seventh inning thanks to a nice rotation, but will then lose most of those contests.

Friday, March 21, 2008

USD Beats UConn in NCAA Tournament

Viva, Viva, Viva U-S-D!!!

The only thing to say is this is why I get on Gyno Pomare's case for being inconsistent. Look how good he is. Western Kentucky, whom the Toreros play on Sunday morning, is good. But the Toreros have an excellent chance at the Sweet 16.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Thanks to Coach Fisher But Your Time is Done

Steve Fisher has performed a miracle on Montezuma Mesa in resurrecting San Diego State's once moribund men's basketball program, but this just-ended season demonstrated that his work here is now done. It's time to move on.

I in no way advocate Fisher's firing, especially after an unprecedented third straight 20-win season and post-season appearance, because that would be a terrible injustice to a man who has given us so much. Where he needs to go is upstairs, and there's a chance that the athletic director job will come open. Current AD Jeff Schemmel, who is unpopular here despite doing a pretty good job, is one of the leaders for a similar job at Kansas State of the Big 12. Things have been strangely silent on the AD job in Manhattan, Kan. for several weeks now. They could just be giving Schemmel a courtesy couple of weeks because it would be uncouth for him to announce his departure as the Aztecs prepared for conference tournaments and the NIT for the men. Still, he's got K-State background, so he's a good fit. Couldn't blame him if he goes.

Fisher would be perfect to succeed him. He's a strong administrator, a quiet visionary and works well with his coaching colleagues. He understands San Diego State, the challenges faced by its team and the desperate desire by fans for a high-level team in any sport. His record also shows that he has high standards, which are desperately needed on the Mesa.

The season just ended was a disappointment overall. The Aztecs lost four games they should have won and closed the slate with an embarrassing NIT rout at the hands of Florida. I had no problem with a flu-ridden squad falling in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament to a decent BYU team. The Aztecs, however, looked just horrible against the Gators, who are nothing compared to their last two NCAA championship teams. The were in disarray on offense, ineffective on defense and a non-factor on the boards. SDSU right now is so far from being a good team that it's apparent that Fisher has taken the Aztecs as far as he can.

Other problems exist. Fisher has had to suspend or completely remove from the team far too many players. The losses of Kyle Spain and Jerome Habel ruined this season. I have no doubt those young men deserved their punishment, but Fisher is struggling to bring quality people to San Diego. No one on the current team can shoot worth a darn. The guard play has been inconsistent at best and downright horrible against good teams. He's had trouble recruiting big men, but as a mid-major team, that's no big surprise. Much worse, his staff of assistants has been a revolving door, maybe the biggest reason for the program's inconsistency.

Don't call me a pessimist. I'm not. The future is bright for SDSU men's basketball. The nucleus of this team is young, and some good recruits are coming next season in G Quinton Watkins and French JC transfer F Mehdi Cheriet. Plus, injured freshman F Tim Shelton will return. This 20-win team will get better. How much better is the question, and under Fisher, I now severely doubt it will get much better.

There've been some Aztec fans who've wanted Fisher booted for years now. I'm only begrudgingly edging toward their point of view. My response to those people has always been, if not Fisher, then who? What better coach is going to come to a school like ours with no hoops tradition? The answer was no one.

This time I come with a name. Randy Bennett of Saint Mary's, who led the Gaels to the NCAA Tournament this season as the nearly unprecedented second at-large bid from the West Coast Conference, behind WCC Tournament champion USD and perennial power Gonzaga. It's the Gaels second NCAA appearance in four years, from a program that won something like two games before Bennett took over. And he has San Diego connections from USD.

Bennett is a quality coach, a builder, a winner. He would make a sensible replacement.

Would I be angry if Fisher were to remain as coach? No. Though I see no reason why things next year will be any different than this season. Plus, Fisher might well see this as time to depart on his own. He has to be disappointed, as we all are, on how this season tailed-off after Spain was suspended. It's the second straight season in which the Aztecs faded down the stretch. He might have had enough. If so, he's been a wonderful coach and has laid a very solid foundation for whoever might follow.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Local Schools Put San Diego in College Hoops Spotlight

USD men's basketball? Check!
USD women? Check!

UC San Diego men's basketball? Check!
UCSD women? Check!

Point Loma Nazarene women's basketball? Check!

The Toreros, Tritons and Sea Lions all won their conference tournaments and are now headed to the national basketball tourneys for their levels -- USD in Division 1, UCSD in Division 2, and PLNU in the NAIA.

Still to come? How about the San Diego State men to join the Toreros in the Big Dance? Could happen. Their road through the Mountain West Conference playoffs looks well set-up for them. If they can somehow ride the wave, then the city of San Diego will have six teams in March Madness. That's quite good for a place not known as America's Finest Hoops City.

Watching USD's amazingly convincing victory over Gonzaga to win the WCC title Monday night, I couldn't help but think that the Toreros not only gave the Aztecs extra incentive, but a road map toward success. They beat the Bulldogs and came back to topple Saint Mary's in the semifinal using two things that SDSU coach Steve Fisher has been stressing this year: defense and grabbing what he calls "50-50" balls. The USD defense held the Gaels to 16 second-half points in the semis and the Zags couldn't buy a short jump shot in the last 10 minutes of the final. Hands were up in the air at all times that Gonzaga possessed the ball. The television commentators noted how the Toreros seemed to get every loose ball.

The question now is, can a San Diego State men's team coming off a slightly disappointing regular season win three games in three days? I think so. They opened the season by winning three games in a row in Fresno and got better each game. They can be dangerous when getting into a rhythm.

Can they extend themselves physically and emotionally? Yes, though I've only seen it a couple times this year: the first 10 minutes at Cal, the first half at home vs Wyoming and the second half on the road at New Mexico. Perhaps the final five minutes at home vs BYU. That's four times in 30 games, so maybe the better question than "can they?" is "will they?"

We find out Thursday afternoon with the opening conference tournament game vs Air Force.

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If no one else steps up in defense of CIF-San Diego Section Commissioner Dennis Ackerman, I will. He has one of the most difficult jobs anyone can possibly have in sports. He's like the NBA commissioner but without the huge salary. Add in about 5,000 parents who all think they could run high school sports competition better than he does, and you understand the position he's in.

In the latest controversy, three of the county's best basketball players mysteriously left off All-Star Game rosters after overcoming eligibility questions earlier in the season, Ackerman had the final say over whom was selected.

Ackerman might have been wrong in this instance. The two boys players in question have since been added onto the roster. He's been wrong before. He's been right most of the time, though, and high school sports around here have flourished since he became commissioner.

So correct the mistake, but cut the man some slack.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Grier Gets it Done for Toreros; Padres and Edmonds

As this college basketball season was about to start, I mentioned my fondness for Brad Holland and my sadness that the University of San Diego had let him go as head basketball coach. However, I also stated that the overall situation at Alcala Park had come to an end, that the Toreros had ceased to become a viable entertainment option in a city where there's a lot to do.

With that as background, where USD sits near the end of its first season under former Gonzaga assistant Bill Grier is remarkable. The Toreros finished third in the West Coast Conference and beat Saint Mary's at home and embarrassed Kentucky at Rupp Arena. While there's almost no way they'll beat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament championship game if they happen to get past the Gaels in the semis, a solid performance could be a steppingstone to the NIT, a tourney that has historically shut them out.

And to think that Grier has accomplished this with essentially two quality players, freshman F Rob Jones and junior G Brandon Johnson. Junior F Gyno Pomare has been wildly inconsistent, and his selection as first team All-WCC is a testament to what he was capable of and the overall weakness of the league, which stinks (and Sunday night's performance is what drives me crazy about him, you can see how good he can be in big situations). Freshman G Trumaine Johnson has developed in the second half of the season, and sophomore G De'Jon Jackson has come up big recently.

While over-shadowed by San Diego State, it's arguable that the Toreros have had a more successful season than the Aztecs. SDSU came in fourth in what was a slightly down year in the Mountain West Conference, failed to beat Saint Mary's on a neutral floor and dismissed or suspended key players under mysterious circumstances. While SDSU has, as usual in athletics, failed to meet expectations, USD has greatly exceeded them.

If this season is an indication of things to come under Grier, then the program is in good hands.

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Steve Fisher's Aztecs have a chance to redeem themselves in the MWC Tournament in Las Vegas. A real chance, since the seedings set up nicely for them. They first play Air Force on Thursday at 2:30 p.m. and while the Falcons just beat SDSU in Colorado Springs, if the Aztecs had just hit just a couple more shots or free throws, the outcome would have been different. A semifinal match then looms with top-seed BYU, a team that SDSU should have swept in the regular season and can't match the Aztecs' athleticism. That gets them to the title game, probably against host UNLV or New Mexico.

Just get to Saturday and take your best shot, you never know.

And let's stop crying about UNLV's home floor advantage. Vegas is where everyone wants to go.

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While I certainly have no ill-will for Padres CF Jim Edmonds, his leg injury is a blessing in disguise. If you hear someone mention that his signing was a good one, it'll be the first time. Heck, I'd take him as a role player. Regular center fielder, no way.

His loss to injury will open up the position for more realistic options and probably forces the brass to install Chase Headley as the starter in left. That's good. You do that while still getting looks at Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut, who hit 22 homers for Cleveland in 2003. Plus intriguing youngsters Will Venable and Callix Crabbe, who is hitting .375 and is showing an ability to draw walks.

General Manager Kevin Towers is also forced to take a fresh look at the trade market.

There's no downside that I've come up with yet for the Padres or fans. Only Edmonds.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Front-running Fans Not Coming to Cox

Win and they will come. No idea is repeated more regarding San Diego sports fans. They'll support a winner, but that's all.

Well, then, will someone please explain to me how Cox Arena last Saturday night was half-empty in the final regular-season home men's basketball game of the year? When the Aztecs are about to finish their most successful three-year stretch in their Division 1 history? When the team is close to completing its third straight 20-win season? When it's becoming apparent that the sky could be the limit for a young nucleus returning next year?

Now the opponent, Colorado State, winless so far in conference play, was no attraction and the home team made short work of the Rams. In a rout with many big plays by the locals, the loudest cheers of the evening were reserved for departing seniors Matt Thomas and Chris Lamb (a junior athletically by graduating in May). Through most of the game, there was no energy in the stands of Cox Arena. You could practically hear a pin drop.

In short, this winner is not being supported. The supposed front-running San Diego sports fans have not appeared in Cox Arena wearing red and black.

So what's wrong? There are a couple reasons within the program why this team has not caught on with fans at-large (as opposed to those few hardcore Aztec supporters). First, coach Steve Fisher's bunch blew three chances to beat non-conference opponents that would have given them credibility. All three games were winnable. The loss of Kyle Spain to suspension took away a solid team leader, and his absence was notable in three subsequent conference losses. The 8 pm starts forced on them by television prevent fans with jobs or children from attending during the week and whetting appetites for future contests. And the television coverage with the mtn and CSTV does more to hide the program than expose it.

Still and all, SDSU is 19-10 and 9-6 in the strong Mountain West Conference and, with a win at Air Force this upcoming weekend, will finish at or above its predicted fourth-place finish in the league, and all but clinch a berth in the NIT. Of course, a bigger dance card awaits if they can manage to win three straight games in the week that follows.

So there's your winner. San Diego sports fans have not responded and those who have aren't terribly excited.

I have always contended that San Diego sports fans have demanded a quality product, a team that is entertaining and competitive, not just a winner. Consider:

-- the Aztecs football team went just 19-15-2 with one winning season in Marshall Faulk's three years, yet fans turned out in droves and were into the game because the games were fun to watch.

-- the Padres drew some of their largest-ever crowds in the post-1998 World Series years even though the teams weren't terribly competitive.

-- the Padres moved into Petco Park and drew large crowds in its first season as people were curious about the new digs. In subsequent years, attendance declined as the team got better. The Padres won two National League West championships but didn't draw like a division-winner here normally would. The Friars were boring and the division stunk. We fans knew it.

Ultimately, I think area fans are tiring of Fisher's building process and are ready for the final product. They're not too happy that too many of the guys he's recruited haven't cut it academically or socially, often leaving the Aztecs a player short of major success. Think of where this squad would be with Jerome Habel manning the middle. But that's a "what might have been and will never be."

The Aztecs are winning, but they're falling short of having a quality product that will entertain fans. That's why Cox Arena is not as full as it should be.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Keep Barry Away; Disdain for Reign of Spain

With pitchers and catchers getting ready to report to Peoria, the Padres, who have no outfield to speak of, have a chance to sign perhaps the most dangerous hitter of our time, and whether they should do so is causing debate in the local world of sports.

Barry Bonds is said to want the Padres. It does not appear, though I could be wrong, that the Padres want Bonds. Nor should they.

When it comes to winning and losing in professional sports, morality exists but has limitations. The horror of bringing Barry to the East Village would quickly dissipate to curiosity. The Padres, who could expect about 90 games with three at-bats per contest from Bonds, would finally have a slugger in the lineup.

Heck, the Padres would simply have a warm body in left field, where they don't have one now. The rest of the outfield, manned by Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles, borders on pathetic. Edmonds, Giles and nothing equals the worst outfield in the majors. Some AAA outfields are probably better. The Padres own AAA outfield in Portland might be better.

So forget all you moralists who don't think the Padres should sign Barry Bonds because he's a serial steroid user and under criminal investigation. And too bad for those of you who think Bonds would be a disruptive influence in the clubhouse. Right now, there's no influence from the position he plays.

Now, here is the reason why the Padres should not sign Barry Bonds.

The Padres have carefully crafted a fine young infield of Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Gonzalez and Greene might be poised for huge years, and if Kouz can match his June-Sept. performance, he will have a solid 2008. Starting pitchers Jake Peavy and Chris Young are dominant and still youthful, as is Mark Prior, if he recovers. Heath Bell is one of the best young relievers in the game.

The point is not that the Padres are on a youth movement. It's that they have a relatively youthful core that is not built just for 2008, but for 2008 and beyond, for many seasons. If you plug and play Barry for a year, what does it get you? One season. Then you're back at square one.

For the Padres to return to contention -- I use the word return because unless some of those mentioned above have career years, they will not contend this year -- they need to keep building for the long term. They have Chase Headley waiting in the wings. If he has a solid spring, give him the job and the same amount of time to grow that Kouz had. I have to admit that I'm not sold on Scott Hairston as anything more than a role player. If they trade for an outfielder, they should get someone they can keep for a couple of years as part of their youthful core.

As much as I am not confident about the Friars in 2008, I like the core players and look forward to the team building upon them, especially with their own minor league products. Bringing in Barry Bonds will only slow the process.

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The suspension of San Diego State basketball F Kyle Spain has been changed from "indefinitely" to the rest of the season, according to coach Steve Fisher, who made the announcement today. This is Spain's second suspension in three years, which likely puts him on the edge of being dropped from the Aztecs entirely. No one has yet ferreted out Spain's transgressions.

Two things come to mind:

1. Fisher doesn't fool around. He says he has few rules, but expects them to be followed. When one of those rules is broken, the coach lays down the law. He's suspended G Richie Williams twice this season and kicked two of his best players ever, Evan Burns and Jerome Habel off the team.

2. There's something missing with this team. At one point this season, I wrote that these players lacked mental toughness. At the time of the writing, I was right. They won some close games against solid opponents, and that problem appeared to be solved. But Spain never reached the greatness expected of him this year now that he was healthy. Williams not only hasn't gotten to the next level of play, he's regressed. Lorrenzo Wade has taken over leadership responsibilities and taken the offense on his shoulders, but he's not a good shooter. Kelvin Davis and DJ Gay, new arrivals who can shoot, suddenly can't. The only player who has improved over the course of the season is Ryan Amoroso, who is now the most consistently effective player on the floor.

This blog is designed to offer my observations of what's going on in the local sports world, but this one is strictly under wraps. I wish I could explain it more. Fisher has done the right thing. It will impact the team, which is now missing something tangible: it's second leading scorer.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Giants Best Chargers in Only Measure, Aztecs Recruiting

By winning the Super Bowl last weekend, the New York Giants demonstrated that they came out ahead of the San Diego Chargers in the Eli Manning-for-Philip Rivers trade in the only measurement that matters in the National Football League.

No background needed, I'm sure.

The fact is, in the four seasons since the draft day deal, the Giants under general managers Jerry Reese and Ernie Accorsi have become a better football team than the Chargers under A.J. Smith. And they've done so with a mostly-unheralded group that contrasts with some of the bright stars offered by the Chargers. Not many Giants in Hawaii this week for the Pro Bowl.

Manning blossomed toward the end of this season to lead the Giants through the playoffs and become the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player. Rivers has struggled at times in his two years as a starter, though he was much better late in the season than earlier and rightfully established himself with fans with a gutty injury-plagued performance at New England in the AFC Championship. Rivers can now be considered good. Maybe very good. Manning might be on his way toward his older brother's greatness.

There's more.

The Giants' no-name offensive line consistently opens holes for it's running backs and protects Manning. The Chargers' front needs to upgrade its right side to be Super Bowl-worthy. Part of why Rivers struggled this season is because he's been rushed so hard by defenses.

Giants starting receivers Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer are significantly better than the Bolts' trio of Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Buster Davis. Our group was well below average until Chambers arrived. Now, as a group, they're decent. No more so.

Running back and tight end. Okay, sure.

On defense, the Giants are better on the line, at linebacker and at safety. The Chargers probably have an edge at corner with the maturation of Quentin Jammer and the stunning talent displayed by Antonio Cromartie.

The Chargers might have the best combination of kickers in the NFL.

Again, I'm in no way saying the Chargers stink. They're quite good. Just not Super Bowl good, not like the Giants, not yet. With the upgrade wish list here and in previous posts, they might get there next season. But the Giants got there first, with Manning at the helm.

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The San Diego State football recruiting class announced this week is a further showing that coach Chuck Long and his staff are on the right track, at least between Monday and Friday.

When NFL draft day comes, you always have the question of: do you take the best player on the board or do you fill the immediate need?

In Long's case in college football recruiting, his Aztecs had glaring needs in the trenches, and it's taken three recruiting classes to address the problem. With this latest class, call the problem solved, though with the nature of offensive line play, it could take a couple of years to bear out.

In my years of following college football in Southern California, something that struck me as being a difference between USC, UCLA and others of their ilk and SDSU has been offensive line recruiting. You look at the lists of recruits for the Trojans, Bruins, and schools like Notre Dame and Ohio State, and every year it seems that half the players are lineman. The Aztecs usually grabbed a few.

Well, now the numbers are up in the trenches, and Long has something to work with. Aztec fans can argue about just how talented the group is, citing star ratings and the like, but a couple of these linemen are in fact pretty good and provide the numbers necessary to sustain a program.

Long's first three classes have righted the ship. There's enough bodies in the right places. Now, maybe they can get a few more wins. When that happens, Long can start grabbing for those four- and five-star recruits and up the talent level around here. The foundation appears to be in place now.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Chargers Season Ends

So rarely do sportswriters get a chance to discuss the end of a season and have so little to say. The Chargers season ended with a 21-12 loss to New England in the AFC Championship game, ending the year with a record of 13-6.

Behind a gutty performance by hurting QB Philip Rivers, the Bolts drove for four field goals, but without LaDainian Tomlinson against a great defense, they were unable to punch the ball in for a TD. The game was not decided until late in the fourth quarter. The Patriots are 18-0, were healthy, at home and in their weather.

The better team won. The Chargers had a fine year. We're happy.

By advancing past the wildcard and divisional rounds of the playoffs, the Chargers bettered their performance of last year, survived a rocky adjustment to a new coaching staff and either developed or signed receiving help with Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers. Darren Sproles showed he could be a solid backup running back with Michael Turner likely to leave. Stephen Cooper was a find at middle linebacker. The secondary improved. Mike Scifres is turning out to be the best punter of our time.

So if it's not all good, it's pretty darn good.

Now, to the offseason. The game, and some of the previous losses, showed that the Chargers' biggest needs -- maybe their only needs -- are:

1. Upgrades over Mike Goff at right guard and at right tackle over Jeromey Clary and Shane Olivea. Maybe a rookie and a free agent combo?

2. Good teams, and one bad one, ran on the Chargers this year. The Bolts might have had a chance vs the Patriots if they'd been able to stop Lawrence Maroney in the fourth quarter. His ability to cut back against the grain was fatal. Somebody, DT, DE or LB has to get better.

To expand on number two a little bit, the thinking here is that the sun is setting on the wonderful era of Jamal Williams at nose tackle. No question, he's been the best at his position this decade. But he was hurt a lot this year and is no longer a spring chicken. Ryon Bingham is adequate as a fill-in, but adequate does not get teams to the Super Bowl.

A blocker to open the running game and a tackler to close it. That might advance the Bolts still one more game next year.

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I also have little to say about San Diego State's 70-43 basketball victory over Wyoming Saturday, where the Aztecs scored the first 19 points of the "contest." The Cowboys couldn't hit the side of a barn in the first half, partly because the Aztecs played a stifling defense. We knew SDSU was a good team, but now you have Lorrenzo Wade assuming a leadership role, Ryan Amoroso re-acclimating to major college basketball following his transfer year, and Kyle Spain finding his shooting touch. Looked good early, now looking better.

Just how good the Aztecs can be will be answered this week when they travel to preseason conference favorite BYU and then host a UNLV squad that is suddenly making noise.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Monty Python Scripts Chargers, Aztecs Wins

In the comedy film "Monty Python's Holy Grail" there's a scene in which a game but outclassed swordsman loses a duel, along with four of his favorite limbs. Each time a body part goes flying off him, he says something like "Just a flesh wound!"

The victories posted this weekend by the Chargers, in their thrilling 28-24 playoff win at Indianapolis, and the San Diego State basketball squad's 72-67 conquest of New Mexico at The Pit are akin to the silly knight winning.

The Bolts? Just dethrone the defending Super Bowl champions with QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates on the sidelines nursing injuries. The fourth quarter game-winning drive was accomplished with the likes of Billy Volek, Michael Turner and Legedu Naanee.

The Aztecs? At a place where the Lobos have been nearly unbeatable, even in some recent down years -- and at 14-2 this did not appear to be a bad season at all -- they were without starting F Tim Shelton and, more importantly, G Richie Williams.

While the Chargers were merely trying to win their eighth in a row, the Aztecs were trying to overcome their Wednesday night upset at the hands of lightly regarded Northern Colorado. Now, the end of a wonderful weekend of sport here in America's Finest City, the Bolts get to prepare for an AFC Championship Game at New England. The Aztecs are off to a 2-0 start in the Mountain West Conference. Even USD won it's opening game in the West Coast Conference.

If I'm writing something similar next weekend, oh let's not get to far ahead!

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Props to Stephen Cooper, the linebacker in his first year as a starter in the Chargers defense. He had 16 tackles in the game and perhaps saved the win by making like Dennis Gibson -- if you don't know, ask an elder -- to knock down a Peyton Manning pass just in front of the end zone. He's become a keeper, no question.

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The best thing about the Chargers win is it takes fans out of the realm of just being relieved to get this far. Now it's time for pure fun. Win or lose, we get a shot at New England in the title game. It's all you can ask for.

If Manning had brought the Colts back for a late victory, this would have been a long off-season. Recriminations against the secondary for allowing so many opposing receivers to get free, tear wallowing over injuries, hatred toward officials for bad calls.

And the big stuff, of course. The Chargers changed coaching staffs in order to get past this round of the playoffs, so what difference did it make. Maybe Donnie Edwards would have made a difference.

Now, none of that. The Chargers did get past this round, with Norv, without Donnie. Nothing but fun from here on out.

Sunday, January 06, 2008

Chargers Dodge Bullet, Norv Dances

The Chargers took Tennessee's best shot but emerged Sunday with their first playoff victory since beating Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship in January 1995, sending the normally detached head coach Norv Turner into a sideline victory jig. The 17-6 victory puts the Bolts in the second round of the NFL playoffs in one week at Indianapolis.

The Titans, a pretty good but not great team, were able to run on the Bolts defense and stymie the offense -- for a half. The good news, something that San Diego fans have really wanted to see since the beginning of the season, was an ability by the coaches and players to adjust to what was happening on the field and eventually take over the game. That happened.

Also good news: the game was put in the hands of sometimes maligned QB Philip Rivers and what had been a rather ordinary batch of wide receivers and they came through with flying colors. Rivers hit Vincent Jackson with a 25-yard TD pass to give the Bolts their first lead, and later hit Chris Chambers for 39 yards on a 3rd & 10 play that led to the final score. Earlier in the year, games placed in their hands were usually lost. The same for last year's playoff debacle with the Patriots. This time was different, which could mean a positive carryover to next week.

The bad news: the game said little about how good the Chargers really are. The Titans really dominated the first half, but just didn't have enough playmakers to capitalize on their work, instead settling for a lone field goal in each of the first two quarters.

In a crucial stretch of the second quarter, which might have kept the Chargers in the game, they recovered a Chris Brown fumble deep in their own territory and then held the Titans to 3-and-out on two straight possessions. That the Titans eventually drove for that second FG was almost insignificant, because that still left the Bolts down by less than a touchdown.

In the regular season matchup with the Colts, the Chargers won 23-21 behind an unprecedented six interceptions thrown by Peyton Manning. That won't happen again. The Colts will have had two weeks to prepare for their matchup, and they'll be ready. Not only did Manning toss all those picks, but Adam Veniteri missed two short FGs. That won't happen again, either. Plus, after the Chargers broke out to a big lead, the Colts dominated the second half of the game and appeared to be the better team.

On the other hand, the Chargers have had success against the Colts at home and in the dome, and will certainly not be intimidated by facing the defending Super Bowl champions.

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I'm one of those not overly sold on the Patriots, despite their 16-0 record. Very good team. Not unbeatable. The way Jacksonville is going right now, they would appear to have what it takes to go into Foxboro in bad weather and come out with a victory.

If that happens, and the Chargers beat the Colts, then the AFC Championship Game would be held at Qualcomm Stadium. Not probable. But not beyond the realm of imagination.

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Big But Not Groundbreaking Basketball Wins

It's tempting to throw a whole bunch of superlatives at USD's 81-72 road conquest of perennial power Kentucky today at Rupp Arena, but in watching the contest, it was clear the Wildcats are nowhere near what we're used to seeing. Nice win, Toreros. A confidence builder.

USD has had bigger victories, however. The win over Gonzaga in the 2003 West Coast Conference Tournament final, the victory over UCLA at Pauley Pavilion earlier that season and a 1990s win over Kansas at the Sports Arena come to mind.

It's also hard to see the Toreros building on such a win, as nice as it was. This is a team that has ground through a very difficult schedule for having a new coach and new system -- and more than a few new players. They've played UNLV and USC and at New Mexico. They've had losing streaks of four and three games.

After a New Year's Eve game at Marshall, they come home for a gimme vs Cal State-Bakersfield before beginning WCC play by taking on San Francisco with new coach Eddie Sutton and going to Gonzaga and Portland. A possible 0-3 start is not what the doctor ordered and renders the Kentucky win, well, not meaningless, but reduces the significance of the upset.

The best scenario is for the Toreros to have found themselves, for guard Brandon Johnson to play like he did today in every game, for the coaches to have become comfortable with what they have, resulting in a strong third-place finish behind Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. That would make today quite meaningful indeed.

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By contrast, San Diego State's 79-78 overtime victory over Sam Houston State last night could have resolved a big problem I have with these Aztecs: a lack of mental toughness. The poor shooting at important times, the inability to convert clutch free throws, mistakes and defensive lapses have been cause for concern despite a 10-3 start to the season. Really, SDSU should be 11-2 minimum, maybe 12-1 and ranked. But these issues have raised their ugly heads and resulted in losses to the first three legitimate opponents they've played.

Maybe the Aztecs turned the corner with number four. Sam Houston State of the Southland Conference has no reputation at all, yet was undefeated coming into the game and claimed victories over Texas Tech, Fresno State and Saint Louis, and made the NCAA Tournament last year. This was a good and experienced group of Bearkats.

It took mental toughness by the Aztecs to tie the game late in regulation and win on a late basket by freshman Billy White with 11 seconds left in OT. Both sequences included turnovers that gave Sam Houston State possession, making life difficult for the Aztecs. But they got the stops they needed, a couple breaks because the Bearkats are a poor FT shooting team, and did just enough to win.

The Aztecs overcame their usual problems. They made just a quarter of the 24 three-point attempts, sank just 58 percent of their FTs and allowed the Bearkats to hit nearly half their shots overall and 41 percent of their threes.

The question now, just like for the Toreros, is whether they can take the mental toughness they developed to survive this game and apply it to the rest of the season. The Aztecs open Mountain West Conference play next Saturday against 8-4 Texas Christian, who've beaten no one to write home about and take on Texas -- which could drain them -- on Wednesday.

Just judging by the Aztecs conference schedule, they have a chance for a hot start, which will be important, because some tough road games loom in February.

2008 Could be Great

This week in the news business is all about lists, looks back at 2007 and gazes ahead toward 2008, so I might as well add mine. Here, a look at what might take place in local sports in the coming year in somewhat chronological order.

Chargers: The Bolts will likely open the playoffs at home against Cleveland and should win. Then comes a probable road game at Indianapolis. While the Colts were the much better team in the first match between the two, oddly won by the Chargers, San Diego has improved so much since that you have to like their chances. While the road could very well end in the dome, it wouldn't surprise me to see them advance to play either New England in chilly Foxboro or host a contest vs Jacksonville. I honestly don't see the Chargers going any further than the championship game. Not out of the realm of possibility. I see a 55-45 shot at winning at Indy, but no more than a 25 percent chance of winning the AFC title.

Buick Invitational: Tiger Woods draws Torrey Pines South on the first day and, despite having a decent day, falls 12 strokes behind someone on the North course who you've never heard of. By the time the second round is over, he's 10 strokes ahead of the unknown and among the leaders, ready to shoot it out with Phil Mickelson.

SDSU Basketball: The conference schedule would appear to have the Aztecs men posed for a hot start, maybe as much as 8-2, but tough road games down the stretch will tell the tale. This team appears to be lacking some mental toughness, so my bet would be a rough end and a 10-6 Mountain West Conference record. At 21-10, you're talking NIT unless they win the MWC Tournament. The women, on the other hand, could have a tough go early. Where the NIT would be something of a letdown for the men, it would be a huge boost for the ladies.

USD Basketball: Hard to judge where the Toreros sit, after going 5-8 with a couple terribly uninspiring losses, they go out and beat Kentucky -- no matter how bad the Wildcats are -- on the road. My read on this team, which could very well be wrong, is that while the record tells no lie, the tough non-conference slate has put some backbone into these guys. Opening West Coast Conference play vs USF and interim-coach Eddie Sutton, then on the road at Gonzaga and Portland, could mean a tough start. The women look pretty good, maybe not as good as last year. NIT at minimum.

US Open: The course is what the course is, you can't get away from it, so Tiger and Lefty will be there on Sunday. More than anything, the PGA is going to learn that they ignored San Diego for far too long and will want to return in another five years or so.

Padres: I can't see how the Friars can recover from this off-season. Unless another deal brings some lightning into the lineup, I don't see how the Padres can keep from battling the Giants for last place. The lineup could arguably be less productive in 2008 and the pitching rotation is asking for too many questions to be answered positively. This is no return to the bad old days. They might even challenge for 80 wins. But no more. One chance for me to be wrong: Kevin Kouzmanoff hits for whole season the way he did after his poor start, and for Khalil Greene to be consistent all season, not just the last month.

SDSU Football: Cautious optimism. Maybe 7-5 and a bowl game. I'd be surprised if they failed to at least reach 6-6. The non-conference schedule is easier, maybe 3-1 easier. In conference, those games you expect to lose -- BYU, TCU, New Mexico -- are on the road, where you expect to lose anyway. An improved team loses in Provo and Fort Worth, but splits between New Mexico on the road and Utah at home. Gotta steal one of those. Then win the rest, with Wyoming on the road and everyone else at Qualcomm Stadium. New quarterback and three new starters on the offensive line. But so many young players are back with a year of experience that it's hard not to be a bit positive over what coach Chuck Long and his staff is doing.

Who knows? By this time next year, maybe I'll be writing about the Chargers being favored to reach their second Super Bowl, the Aztecs getting ready to build on an NCAA Tournament appearance and the Padres returning to contention behind rising young stars. Hey, how about a new women's tennis tournament to replace the Acura Classic? Hope springs eternal when you're a sports fan.

All in all, I see our major teams and events starting to hit on all cylinders. The hard work put in on the Chargers and SDSU hoops is close to paying off, the SDSU football coaches are doing the right thing, and if the Padres are simply using this season to buy time, they might have a point. If I'm right, next year's predictions ought to be pretty fun to make.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Merry Christmas

Being a sports fan in San Diego brings with it much frustration, usually more aggravation than celebration, unfortunately. But as we approach Christmas, we are blessed with many gifts we've unwrapped this year under the sports tree.

-- Most timely, the Chargers have won four straight games and eight of their last 10 to clinch another AFC West title and playoff berth. The Bolts should win out, which would give them an 11-5 record and a postseason home game. We've also psychologically come to terms with the fact that while this is a pretty good team, it's probably not Super Bowl-worthy, so when the run comes to an end in January, we won't threaten mass suicide again.

-- The US Open at Torrey Pines is only six months away.

-- The Padres have come off a streak in which they won two straight National League West titles to make playoff berths, and played a meaningful game in October this year when a heck of a lot of other teams did not.

-- Beth Burns. Forget the UConn game. She's the best coach on the Mesa.

-- San Diego State's woeful football team finally has a coaching staff that understands the problems that have plagued the program for years and are, unlike most Aztecs coaches, are willing to undertake the challenge of what will be a long-term building program. No quick-fix scheme was going to change the Aztecs fortunes, but rather would have kept the program in a rut. Chuck Long and company are, finally, working to lay the strong foundation that has been sorely lacking. It will take longer to receive the payoff, but if success does come, it's more likely to be sustained.

-- Tiger is coming in just a few weeks.

-- The Oceanside High School football team, for winning the San Diego Section's debut in the state football bowl series, thereby gaining desperately needed street cred for future local teams that have good seasons. And to think of what coach John Carroll has done to mold a team. The problems in that city with gangs and crime are horrendous. Carroll has pulled together a winning group made up of kids who are black, white, Samoan and Latino and you never hear of troubles among them.

-- Three years of Josh Johnson. Now get to watch him on Sundays.

-- San Diego, of all places, now has three sports radio stations. The last, XTRA Sports 1360, is clearly the best. I can't listen to Dave, Jeff & Mike without a big smile on my face and I'm often laughing out loud in my car because of them. Josh Rosenberg is a fine young talent and Chris Ello is always willing to take a strong stand on issues. Lee Hamilton is still The 'saw, though his schtick often wears thin. Craig Elfsten is a portrait in hanging in there, now rewarded for sticking with Clear Channel through thick and thin.

-- Four years of Kevin O'Connell. Less likely to see him on Sundays, but the chance is still there.

-- Billy White, Tim Shelton and DJ Gay. White looks like a young Marcus Slaughter, Shelton appeared to be very good before he got hurt. Gay started well but now looks like a freshman, but point guard is the hardest position for a first-year player to learn. Once he gets it, he has the physical tools to be a good one. White's a future MWC Player of the Year. A couple more recruiting classes like this, and SDSU basketball will be a March Madness fixture.

-- Jake Peavy = Cy.

May 2008 bring more such gifts. Merry Christmas to all!